The Tony Kinnett Cast – Ep. 441: LIVE 2025 Election Coverage

Host: Tony Kinnett
Guests: Scott Jennings, Victor Davis Hanson, Kurt Schlichter, Ken Cuccinelli, Jarrett Stepman, Bradley Devlin, Virginia Allen, George Caldwell, Producer Nick
Date: November 5, 2025

Overview

This special, live episode of The Tony Kinnett Cast presents comprehensive, real-time coverage and analysis of the pivotal 2025 "off-year" elections, featuring major gubernatorial and down-ballot races in Virginia, New Jersey, and the highly-watched New York City mayoral election. Joining Tony are expert guests from across the political spectrum who break down the results, dig into cultural and political trends, reflect on campaign strategies, and assess implications for 2026’s midterms and the national shutdown. The episode’s tone is direct, sarcastic, engaging, and filled with characteristic Tony Kinnett humor.

Key Discussion Points & Election Highlights

1. Why Off-Year Elections Matter

• Tony kicks off by stressing the stakes—even in an "off-year." The ongoing government shutdown and heated issues (transgender policy, crime, parental rights in schools) are energizing both parties and providing national ripple effects.
• The outcome, especially in blue-leaning states, is read as a preview for 2026’s midterms.

"[T]his is really one of the first off year elections that I can remember seeing as much pomp and circumstance…You really got out the big leagues." (09:52)

2. Virginia: The Bellwether Race

Key Races:

• Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Winsome Earl Sears (R)
• Attorney General: J. Jones (D) vs. Jason Miyares (R)

Shut Down Fallout:

• Both Tony and guest Ken Cuccinelli (former AG of Virginia) express surprise that the long government shutdown has had a muted effect in VA, despite the large population of federal workers.
• Cuccinelli explains the demographic split: NOVA (Northern Virginia) as a Democratic stronghold due to federal employees, "ROVA" (Rest of Virginia) being more Republican.
• The Democratic base remains mobilized by issues like transgender policy in schools, while Republicans struggle with turnout in an off-cycle year.

Results & Analysis:

• AP calls governorship for Abigail Spanberger.
• Jay Jones ultimately leads in the AG race.
• Key issues: public safety/crime, parental rights, education, and energy policy ("green" initiatives vs. affordability).
• Winsome Sears criticized (by Tony and panel) for running too much on "anti-Spanberger" rather than offering a forward-looking vision.

"Sears campaign...has really been focused far too much on what it is that they're fighting against in Abigail Spanberger...hasn't really communicated the here's where we're going, here's what Virginia can be." (11:56)

3. New Jersey: The Missed GOP Opportunity

Key Races:

• Governor: Mikey Sherrill (D) vs. Jack Cittarelli (R)

Issues & Turnout:

• Republicans saw New Jersey as their best shot, but turnout and enthusiasm lagged.
• Cittarelli emphasized back-to-basics education and opposition to gender ideology in schools—a message panelists found effective but ultimately insufficient.
• Sherrill leaned into "parents' rights," but her opposition to opt-outs for LGBTQ+ content was seen as tone-deaf by the panel.

"That's a prepared candidate right there. That is what people will come out to vote for." (45:04, on Cittarelli’s debate answer)

• Bomb threats at polling sites and concerns about the effect on turnout are noted.
• Decision Desk and AP eventually project a clear Sherrill victory.

4. New York City: The “Socialist Surge”

Key Races

• Mayor: Zoran Mamdani (Democratic Socialist, DSA), Andrew Cuomo (I, former Governor), Curtis Sliwa (R)

Trends & Reactions:

• Panelists highlight the lack of enthusiasm for Cuomo and Sliwa; Mamdani’s base is young, “excited,” and focused on big promises: affordability, city-owned groceries, radical housing policy.
• Jarrett Stepman notes the “A Team” for Democrats is now the new, energetic vision-casters like Mamdani, while the old guard is left floundering.
• Tony and guests express concern over NYC’s accelerating socialist politics and predict more outmigration of residents/companies.

"The only people who were excited except for the mom, Donnie supporters. They were the only people who were excited in this race." (152:24)

• AP and Decision Desk both call the race for Mamdani quickly after polls close.

5. California: Prop 50 & The Future of House Redistricting

• Victor Davis Hanson explains how Prop 50 will all but ensure Democratic entrenchment via aggressive redistricting.
• He discusses the political and demographic shifts in CA, frustration with the lack of a compelling, future-oriented message from the state’s GOP, and the tightening grip of urban progressivism.

6. Media Coverage, Government Shutdown, & National Picture

• Scott Jennings predicts that regardless of results ("Democrats supposed to win tonight"), media will spin things as "bad for Trump."
• Panel agrees: Democratic strategy, especially in the ongoing shutdown, is controlled by its radical base—centrist Democrats are "terrified of AOC and Bernie Sanders."
• Jennings and Devlin both lament that the shutdown, blamed on GOP in the past, is entirely Democratic-driven now. They foresee quick moves toward reopening post-election.

"If you have to give something subsidies, it's not working…what the media and Democrats want is for Republicans to bail out Democrats on Obamacare." (66:19)

• The shutdown is believed to lose value as a Democratic “wedge issue” after the election.

7. Candidate Quality, Party Strategies, & The 'Vision Gap'

• Both panelists and Tony bemoan the Republican Party's lack of a clear, positive vision—complaining that "not the Democrat" isn’t enough, especially for working-class and diverse voters.
• Dems have shifted from merely the “B team” of “corporate, middle-aged white lady” candidates to the “A team” of visionary, activist-types (Mamdani, AOC).
• Republicans identified as struggling to build turnout machinery, especially in off-years and in dense, blue-leaning areas.

"It's not going to be enough to be anti-woke. It's not going to be enough to say we're going to cut your taxes…you need to say this is the positive vision, the moral vision." (135:09)

• Kurt Schlichter offers hard-boiled wisdom: “Democrats win deep-blue states in off-years; this was always going to be a rough night for Republicans.”

Memorable Quotes (w/ Timestamps)

• Tony Kinnett:
  • "We’re not playing a game here. We never were." (01:29)
  • "I think that’s what we’re gonna see boiling down here in this election." (13:12)
  • "If you ever dated a crazy girl, you know that’s when you have to be on your guard. That may not be relevant to this, but that’s just good advice for life." (172:42)
• Ken Cuccinelli:
  • "The most striking thing to me is…the muted impact of the government shutdown on this governor’s race." (14:29)
  • "The Dems…are still more scared of their crazy radical, violent left wing base than they are interested in winning the middle." (17:08)
• Scott Jennings:
  • "The entire thing will be spun as somehow bad for Trump. Even if Republicans were to magically win, it would be, ‘somehow, they did it in spite of Trump’." (57:56)
  • "Election day…is a cultural thing. …When these things happen, they give people the idea that hey, it’s not good to vote on election day or it’s not safe. It hurts my heart." (60:14)
• Victor Davis Hanson:
  • "California…we’re going to go from nine out of 52 congressional seats probably down to four or five. …The real story is more than just that it’s being gerrymandered." (90:56)
• Bradley Devlin:
  • "The GOP is now more a working class party with lower propensity voters." (129:08)
  • "Democrats almost lost them because of that extremism…let’s see how that actually shakes out when there’s real Democratic primaries…in purple districts…" (144:03)
• Kurt Schlichter:
  • "I’m a big believer in Occam’s Razor—Democrats win in heavily Democrat areas and the Democrats are really motivated because, historically, it’s an off year and also they’re homicidal freaks." (116:04)
  • "What kind of man would vote for any of that? Well, I guess there’s a lot of guys who want to be tied up in diapers." (122:02)
• Virginia Allen (on-ground, VA):
  • "People here didn’t seem that surprised. ...The crowd behind me seems overall pretty positive…they carried on chatting. …That really lets you know, okay, Virginia has swung back to being quite blue." (68:18–72:13)
• Jarrett Stepman:
  • "New York itself dropped dead. That’s kind of what it feels like for many in New York City, especially longtime residents who can’t believe how far things have fallen…" (148:09)
• George Caldwell (on-ground, NYC):
  • "We asked about safety and crime issues. Generally, Mamdani supporters were pretty dismissive of that. ...But when we asked people what the word socialism means to them, they would generally say it's equality, caring about people. And so they didn't see it as a dirty word." (181:09)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | Notes | |------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00–02:45| Introductions & Stakes | Tone set—“not a game,” shutdown, off-year import | | 14:29–18:38| Ken Cuccinelli on VA shutdown, Dem base | Analysis: voters, base, demographic split in “NOVA & ROVA”| | 27:32–32:37| NY Analysis (Stepman, Jennings) | “Spoiler” vote, three-way mayoral, “pain & division” | | 34:45–37:20| VA gubernatorial debate moment | Spanberger v. Sears: transgender locker room policy | | 41:14–45:04| NJ debate moments, Cittarelli’s vision | Parents’ rights, LGBTQ curriculum, “back to basics” | | 47:55–53:14| NYC bomb threats, Mamdani’s response| “Intimidation,” “Trump’s fault,” policing & media spins | | 66:19–67:36| Media, shutdown, Obamacare subsidies| “Media will demand GOP bail out Dems on Obamacare” | | 87:12–98:26| Victor Davis Hanson on CA & Prop 50 | Demographics, gerrymandering, lost Republican messaging | |116:04–118:01| Kurt Schlichter—bad night for GOP | “Occam’s Razor,” off-year results, “bad night” | |129:08–135:02| Devlin on Republican turnout, vision gap| Building turnout, “need to cast a vision” | |148:09–150:42| NYC reaction: “New York dropped dead”| Stepman, AP calls Mamdani win, Dems’ “A Team” | |181:09–188:28| Caldwell—On the ground in NYC | Mamdani’s supporters, “affordability,” “socialism” | |189:36–191:00| Closing analysis | Dem victories, looking ahead to Prop 50, 2026 |

Final Takeaways

• Democrat dominance in key blue states was expected; the Republican hopes for upsets (especially in NJ) fell short, confirming challenging fundamentals, especially without a popular national candidate atop the ticket.
• GOP's major problem remains vision and turnout—they must offer more than “not the Democrat,” especially in dense, younger, urban communities.
• Democrats have two archetypes—“vision casters” (Mamdani/AOC) vs. “corporate Karen” types (Spanberger, Sherrill). Both have strengths but the future is with those who energize the base with big, sometimes radical promises.
• Shutdown politics, redistricting, and social spending battles are set to define DC in the coming weeks, now that electoral “cover” for moderate Dems has expired.
• The episode’s blend of fast updates, sharp-edged commentary, and on-the-ground perspectives offers both a snapshot of 2025 as well as big questions for 2026 and beyond.

This summary provides a complete, engaging breakdown for anyone who missed the live coverage or wants to revisit the decisive moments, strategies, and personalities that shaped the 2025 off-year elections.