The Tony Kinnett Cast, Ep. 482

Date: January 15, 2026
Title: Trump Sending Mixed Signals on Iran Before Likely STRIKE, Ilhan Omar Subpoenaed
Host: Tony Kinnett, The Daily Signal

Episode Overview

This episode covers rapidly evolving developments in the Middle East, particularly the United States’ military posture toward Iran and signals from the Trump administration ahead of an expected strike. Tony discusses international diplomatic moves, media reactions, and the domestic political climate, including ongoing ICE actions in Minnesota and Representative Ilhan Omar's recent subpoena. Key guests include Representative Nancy Mace. The show is rich with real-time geopolitical analysis, administration commentary, congressional drama, and biting Midwestern commentary.

Main Topics & Key Insights

1. Middle East Escalation: U.S. Military Posture Toward Iran

• Military Activity:

  • USS Abraham Lincoln strike group, originally in the South China Sea, redirected to the Middle East.
  • U.S. missile-guided cruisers in the Persian Gulf repositioned for potential air defense.
  • Civilian airspace over Iran is mostly evacuated; embassies shutting down and evacuating staff (UK, France, Germany, etc.), and advisories from countries worldwide for their citizens to leave Iran.
  • “Flight radar is looking pretty barren right now…” (00:58–01:08)

• On the Ground in Iran:

  • Iranian airspace briefly closed for two hours.
  • Reports of fighter jets over western Iran/eastern Iraq and sounds of military movement.
  • Heavy jamming of communications in Iran, possibly with Russian equipment: “a multi-band jamming attempt on almost every available spectrum other than the visible light spectrum” (09:20).

• Protests & Crackdowns:

  • Ongoing mass protests, executions reportedly halted after U.S. warnings; chants of "Long live the Shah" in Tehran.
  • Iranian regime’s communications clampdown; State-controlled jamming and seizure of imported Starlink devices.

2. Trump Administration’s ‘Mixed Signals’ on Iran

• Presidential Messaging:

  • Trump publicly trusts promises by Iran's supreme leader regarding halting executions but keeps adversaries guessing.
    • Trump (07:04): “They told me that there’ll be no executions…we were told that the killing in Iran is stopping.”
  • Tony Kinnett’s analysis: This is consistent with Trump’s “peace through strength” approach and habit of sending ambiguous signals before military actions, often using the vice president as a diplomatic voice right before military escalations (06:05–07:46).
  • Kinnett cautions against trusting media predictions of specific strike timelines, noting past red herrings (“I would caution anyone out there…against predictive timelines.” 09:00).

• Rationale for Opacity:

  • Trump administration critical of leaks by previous administrations; stresses tactical obfuscation to maintain operational security.
  • Mixed messaging intended to keep adversaries off-balance and avoid tipping off targets (08:07).

Notable Quote:

“So Trump had said there will be no executions…He suggests that, well, maybe it is kind of both sides. This always upsets a lot of people.”
— Tony Kinnett (07:17)

3. Diplomatic Maneuvering & Global Response

• International Ministry Statements:

  • Interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araki (15:49–18:03):
    • Araki pleads for Trump not to “repeat the same mistake” as in the June strikes.
    • Claims Iran’s nuclear technology “cannot be bombed” and emphasizes preference for diplomacy.
      • “The determination also cannot be bombed. Now Iran proved to be ready for negotiation for diplomacy.” (17:33)
    • Tony: “That’s a scared man making that statement.” (15:53)

• European and Global Reactions:

  • Germany, Norway, and UK send token troops to Greenland in response to escalating U.S. interest there (45:00, 45:23).
  • China reroutes oil tankers meant for Venezuela; Chinese bot operations for “Free Palestine” wind down; Beijing demands repayment for Venezuelan loans (24:16–26:15).

4. Congressional and Domestic Developments: Ilhan Omar Subpoenaed, ICE Raids

• ICE Surge in Minnesota:

  • 1,000 additional ICE and CBP agents sent to Minnesota, bringing the total to 3,000 (29:40).
  • Context: heightened tensions after recent ICE-involved shooting and fraud investigations tied to Somali migrants.

• Political Response:

  • Progressive lawmakers, including Rep. Ilhan Omar, calling to abolish ICE and oppose enforcement funding (31:50, 32:55):
    • “We want ICE out of our district. … It is not justifiable for the President to target our state…” — Ilhan Omar (31:50)
  • Tony dismisses this as political theater: “We'll just abolish it because we really don't like ICE.”

• Fraud Allegations & Subpoena:

  • Representative Nancy Mace joins to discuss the subpoena for Ilhan Omar, tied to allegations of mass fraud in Minnesota’s Somali community (36:00).
  • Mace criticizes federal inaction despite "billions of dollars lost and defrauded from the American government" (36:32–37:59).
  • Advocacy for more aggressive Treasury Department involvement and possible judicial term limits to stem long-running corruption (39:09–40:10).

Notable Quote:

“I truly believe [Secretary Bessant] is going to do that. I think he’s the last great hope that we have in this kind of scenario. … Tim Walls and Ilhan Omar should be afraid of Scott Bessant.”
— Rep. Nancy Mace (37:59)

5. Media, Activism & Senate Theater

• Viral Senate Hearing:

  • Senator Josh Hawley grills Dr. Verma, OBGYN, over whether men can get pregnant (47:23–53:54). Dr. Verma delivers evasive answers, leading to Tony’s ridicule and commentary on modern definitions and political avoidance of biology.
    • “Science and evidence should guide medicine. … I do take care of people that don’t identify as women.” — Dr. Verma (48:01)
    • “You cannot have it both ways. You cannot be super duper…expert…and then simultaneously…’Well, I don’t really know’.” — Tony Kinnett (54:00)

• Progressive Critique:

  • Tony lampoons Stacey Abrams’ criticism of ICE and U.S. military force as paramilitary violence and connects this to leftist rhetoric (56:34–60:32).
  • Notes how media and social figures (Candace Owens) respond to the Iranian crisis with conspiracy or unseriousness (67:41–69:37).

6. Key Updates & Analytical Closing

• Iranian Situation Update:

  • Executions of detained protesters reportedly canceled (“Sky News is reporting now that all planned executions are canceled in Iran.” 20:00).
  • Airspace reopened but remains tense; protests continue, sanctions biting as Iranian currency collapses.

• U.S. Policy & Legislative Notes:

  • Senate blocks resolution restricting President’s Venezuela military actions by 51-50 (including VP tiebreaker) (12:40).
  • State Department freezes all Somali immigration; House considers bill for easier denaturalization if convicted of fraud (28:30).
  • Extended discussion on the importance of keeping the filibuster to prevent quick-fix tyranny of the majority (72:30–end).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Trump’s mixed signals:

  "The President of the United States, approaching some kind of potential military operation, starts suggesting that maybe he’s going to back off...This does not appear to be any different." (06:05)

• On ICE and progressive critique:

  "Abolish ICE? That is some real special stuff." (31:20)

• On federal inaction in fraud cases:

  "No one ever goes to jail. That’s what’s wrong with the system. It’s a complete failure of the justice system all the way through."
  — Nancy Mace (37:23)

• On political semantics and science:

  "If you are going to be bold enough to go testify before the House or the Senate…perhaps you should know enough about your area of expertise to answer questions." (49:00)

• On the left’s media rhetoric:

  “This isn’t going to get people killed? Paramilitary groups, okay?” — Tony Kinnett, lampooning Stacey Abrams (56:48)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Middle East & Iran Updates: 00:04–15:45
• Trump’s Signals & U.S. Administration Analysis: 06:05–12:38
• Iranian Foreign Minister Interview (Fox News): 15:49–18:03
• Military, Geopolitics, Greenland: 21:35–26:15
• Chinese & Venezuelan Developments: 24:16–26:15
• ICE Action in Minnesota & Ilhan Omar Response: 29:40–32:55
• Rep. Nancy Mace Interview: 36:02–41:06
• Senate Hearing: Men & Pregnancy Debate (Hawley/Verma): 47:23–53:54
• Stacey Abrams on ICE as Paramilitary: 56:34–60:32
• Candace Owens on Iranian Protests: 67:41–69:20
• Final Q&A and Filibuster Discussion: 72:30–end

Tone & Style

• Fast-paced, sarcastic, punchy, unapologetic commentary.
• Direct references to news clips and political figures.
• Blends breaking news analysis with Midwestern, commonsense humor, and open skepticism of political and media theatrics.

Final Thoughts

Tony reiterates caution in trusting media or administration signals regarding Iran, expecting surprise and ambiguity as part of Trump’s tactical approach. Domestically, he predicts ongoing battles over ICE and migration enforcement, while lamenting bipartisan gridlock and "quick fix" addiction in Congress. He sees the cultural divides playing out in media, hearings, and public sentiment, urging listeners to remain skeptical, seek definitions, and demand clear answers—whether from politicians or so-called experts.

Show closes with a promise to go live if/when a strike on Iran occurs.

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