The Tony Kornheiser Show

Episode: "It now begins with 4 vs 13"
Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Tony Kornheiser
Guests: Bob Ryan, Jeff Ma, Greg Garcia

Episode Overview

This episode marks the conclusion of "Bracket Week," an annual Tony Kornheiser Show tradition where the show dives into March Madness NCAA tournament picks. Tony is joined by legendary sportswriter Bob Ryan, betting analytics expert Jeff Ma, and longtime friend (and comedic rhymester) Greg Garcia. They deliver in-depth, often humorous, breakdowns of their brackets, lively debates about what constitutes an “upset,” and reflections on current college basketball controversies—all delivered in the show's signature bantering and self-deprecating style.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What’s an Upset? (06:00–07:00)

Bob Ryan launches into a spirited argument about what truly constitutes an "upset" in the NCAA Tournament. He asserts that:

• A 9 over an 8 or a 7 over a 10 is not an upset.
• “Upsets truly begin at 4 vs 13. Anything up to 5 vs 12 is not an upset. The tournament has proven that.” (06:00)
• Tony and Bob agree this time of year “upset” is "the most abused word."

2. The Miami of Ohio Surprise & The Committee’s Snub (03:15–04:19)

• Tony admits he was dead wrong about Miami of Ohio's chances. Bob Ryan cheerfully claims, “I picked them to win. So I’m feeling good this morning!” (03:31)
• The two agree the selection committee was “very small” in putting Miami of Ohio in a play-in game, with Bob stating: “I thought they deserve better than that. But they did what they had to do and showed the world.” (03:55–04:14)
• Both are frustrated that "sixteens" are given play-in games instead of middling major-conference teams.

3. The Jaylen Brown MVP Debate (04:40–05:36)

• Tony asserts, “Jaylen Brown, he’s the MVP of the league, right?”
• Bob is measured: “He’s having a terrific year. He’s in the discussion. Is he more valuable than SGA? Than Jokic? He’s very important to the Boston Celtics... but I can’t categorically put him above them.” (04:46)
• Tony jokes: “That’s why I’m not allowed to get a vote. Wilbon gets a vote but I’m not.” (05:36)

4. Deep-Dive: Bob Ryan’s Bracketology (06:00–18:30)

Bob’s Upset Philosophy & Picks (06:00–09:10)

• “I have in my… 4 vs 13, 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10, and 8 vs 9 for you. But I do, in fact, have a 4/13.” (06:30)
• Arizona Bracket: Arizona advances past Purdue; Iowa State is his “lurker” team. (07:05)
• Loves Akron (“The Zips. I love the nickname. That may have made my final determination.” 08:43) over Texas Tech as his 5/12.
• Predicts Santa Clara upsetting Kentucky: “I know… Kentucky could go on a run or get knocked out in the first round. I’m going with Santa Clara.” (09:49)

Game-by-Game Picks and Reasoning

• Believes in “the Vols” (Tennessee) over Miami of Ohio, can’t trust Alabama (“Although they’re in turmoil, and that guy down there is a mess…” 09:06), and is perpetually wary of Virginia and Michigan State as “lurkers.”
• In tough calls, sometimes is swayed by “love of nickname” or “coaching respect.”

Final Four and Champion (17:08–17:16)

• Final Four: Arizona, Iowa State, Duke, Houston
• Champion: ARIZONA (“I am crowning the Wildcats… This is the time that the door will open.” 17:16)

Notable Bob Ryan Quotes

• “The whole overriding story is about the power conferences, blah, blah, blah…” (04:31)
• “It’s not a lucky shot, not a bad call, it was a legitimate victory.” (03:55)
• “I’ve got what I call, Tony, ‘the Lurkers.’” (17:38)

5. The Philosophy of Bracket Pools vs Serious Betting (21:29–24:00)

Jeff Ma (betting analytics guru) draws a stark difference between fun bracket picks and real betting:

• “No one’s really doing brackets to make money. There’s so much randomness… It’s fun, but it’s not serious analysis.” (22:01)
• Describes “Calcuttas”—high-stakes auctions for teams: “Some of these Calcutta pots can be in the millions.” (23:01)
• Tony: “They’re way too scary for someone like me. I stay away from them.” (23:32)

6. Jeff Ma’s Analytical Bracket (23:41–32:27)

Key Takeaways:

• Picks upsides like High Point over Wisconsin: “Variance is good when you’re the underdog... so I’ll take High Point.” (24:00)
• Miami of Ohio to knock off Tennessee (huge upset).
• Stays “chalky” in some brackets but picks St. Mary’s over Houston (“That’s a big upset. Most everyone has Houston all the way to the elite eight.” 29:41)
• FINAL FOUR: Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Gonzaga
• CHAMPION: MICHIGAN

On “Four Number Ones” Myth (32:04–32:50)

• People overweight recent memory: “Mathematically, the chance of four number ones making the Final Four is 4 or 5%.” (32:33)
• “Last year was a very freakish situation.” (32:50)

7. Greg Garcia’s Comedy-Infused Bracket (35:21–49:24)

• Greg, ever the satirist, does his entire bracket in rhyme, including constant swipes at Tony, show folklore, and inside jokes (e.g., “Wanna Bet sweatshirts,” “Tony’s matchbooks,” “Littles,” etc.).
• On upsets: “And, Tony, by the end of this segment, you’ll be sick of listening to me talk. So as a treat, in the Arizona brackets, first round, I have nothing but chalk.” (37:46)
• On Alabama: “Alabama is good, but without their jailbirds, I’ll put all the money I have on the Hofstra Flying D-words.” (38:18)
• Uses Tony’s health woes, guest quirks, and self-deprecation throughout.
• Final Four: Arizona, Virginia, St. John’s, Florida
• CHAMPION: ARIZONA

Notable Greg Garcia Quotes

• “North Carolina’s defense will be less effective than Children’s Afrin.” (38:47)
• “I’m in Las Vegas… I’ve yet to be paid. I still have my amateur stats.” (35:28)

8. Recurrent Show Themes & Banter

• Tony’s Health: Persistent references to his “clogged ear” and lingering cold (40:42)
• Family: Greg’s family members offer unvarnished critique (“That was… pretty good.” 36:24)
• Inside Jokes: Constant ribbing about “ugly” Wanna Bet sweatshirts, Tony’s golf, and Littles show culture.

9. Bracket Philosophy—What Actually Happens in March (Throughout)

• Bob Ryan: “Lurker” teams create chaos.
• Jeff Ma: Variance, randomness, and recency bias play huge roles; perfect brackets are impossible.
• Greg Garcia: It’s all for fun. “I represent the Littles, Tony… That’s what I do.” (43:12)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Upsets begin at 4 vs 13. Anything up to 5 vs 12 is not an upset. The tournament has proven that." —Bob Ryan, (06:00)
• "I thought it was very, very small of the committee to put them [Miami of Ohio] in a play in game. Very small. And it angered me.” —Tony Kornheiser, (03:48)
• "I picked them to win. So I’m feeling good this morning!" —Bob Ryan, (03:31)
• “No one’s really doing brackets to make money. There’s so much randomness... It’s fun, but it’s not serious analysis.” —Jeff Ma, (22:01)
• “In the Arizona brackets, first round, I have nothing but chalk.” —Greg Garcia, (37:46)
• “I’ve won this thing as many times as fake Frank Braun.” —Greg Garcia, (41:31)
• "Mathematically, the chance of four number ones making the Final Four is 4 or 5%." —Jeff Ma, (32:33)

Tournament Picks: Summary Table

| Analyst | Final Four | Champion | Notable Upset Picks | |--------------|------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------------| | Bob Ryan | Arizona, Iowa State, Duke, Houston | Arizona | Santa Clara over Kentucky; Akron over Texas Tech; Troy over Nebraska; VCU over UNC | | Jeff Ma | Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Gonzaga | Michigan | High Point over Wisconsin; Miami OH over Tennessee; St. Mary’s over Houston | | Greg Garcia | Arizona, Virginia, St. John’s, Florida | Arizona | Hofstra over Alabama; Sienna over Duke (as a joke); VCU over UNC |

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Intro/Sponsor Reads: [00:00–02:29] (skipped per instructions)
• Miami of Ohio discussion: [03:15–04:19]
• Upset definitions debate: [06:00–07:00]
• Bob Ryan's bracket logic: [06:30–18:30]
• Jeff Ma’s betting/philosophy: [21:29–24:00]
• Jeff Ma's bracket picks: [24:00–32:27]
• Probability of four #1 seeds: [32:04–32:50]
• Greg Garcia's comedy bracket: [35:21–49:24]

Conclusion

This episode is a showcase of the show’s blend of basketball nerdery, friendship, and humor. Tony, Bob, Jeff, and Greg each bring their unique style—dry wit, statistical skepticism, and joke-packed rhymes—to the subject of March Madness. If you want to understand how experts, fans, and analytics types really approach their brackets (and laugh a lot along the way), this episode is canon Tony Kornheiser Show.

[For show-specific inside jokes, historical context, or more pick-by-pick detail, see the full transcript above.]