The Tony Kornheiser Show

Episode: "Winter’s Coming"
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Tony Kornheiser

Episode Overview

This episode provides an in-depth forecast and local impact discussion about a significant winter storm heading for the Washington D.C. region, featuring expert insights from Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang. Tony and his guest break down evolving weather models, storm preparedness, and what listeners can expect. The conversation moves on to cover NFL playoff coaching news and detailed game picks with regulars Jason La Canfora, James Carville, and Jeff Ma. The familiar banter blends sports, weather, betting, and local color in Tony's trademark style.

Key Segments & Summaries

1. Winter Storm Forecast with Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang

[03:19 – 17:00]

Main Discussion Points

• Snow/Ice Forecast in DC:
  • Originally 5–10" of snow forecast; now models show closer to 5", with increasing likelihood of sleet and especially freezing rain.
  • Quote [03:19, Jason Samenow]:
    “We’re seeing more likelihood of a quick change and prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain... Probably a significant amount of ice on top of that.”
  • Ice risk is the most concerning factor (“Ice is the scariest word” – Tony [04:58]).
  • Start time for the storm has shifted later: Saturday night between 10pm–1am.
• Hazard Level of Ice:
  • Sleet less problematic for power lines and trees, but freezing rain could cause significant outages and damage.
  • Quote [06:09, Samenow]:
    “If that worst case scenario were to pan out, we would have to worry about power outages because freezing rain... can get some nasty power outages in that situation.”
  • Expect temperatures to stay below freezing all week, so whatever falls will linger, creating “a conglomeration of cement-like nastiness.”
• When Will It Warm Up?
  • Likely not until early next week (maybe Groundhog Day). “No pronounced warm up that I can see in the long range at this point..." [07:24, Samenow]
• Snow Model Swings—Why the Change?
  • Models initially expected cold air and more snow, but now show more mixing due to southern jet stream bringing in warm air.
  • Statistical chance of 12"+ was about 35%—model outliers led to snow forecasts of 18"+, but probability was always lower.
  • “When you see that, you should be skeptical... D.C. only gets a snowstorm of, you know, 15 inches or more about once a decade.” [10:17, Samenow]

Notable Moments

• Advice for Residents:

  • Stay on top of shoveling and salting walkways as the storm progresses; it’ll be very hard to remove once it freezes.
  • Sleet packs more water—2-3” of sleet equivalent to 10” of snow—a lasting mess.
  • “If you don't, it’s going to be really tough to remove by Monday. So you want to stay on top of that on Sunday." [13:22, Samenow]

• On DC’s Resilience Compared to Rural Areas:

  • Major roads will be cleared quickly, but neighborhoods may be stuck longer due to the ice/snow mix and prolonged cold.
  • Return to normal for neighborhoods could take several days, if not a week.

• School Closures?

  • Likely several days (or more) off for local kids due to storm aftermath.

Memorable Quotes

• Tony Kornheiser [04:58]:
  • "Ice is the scariest word. Ice is when you're my age and you walk in the dog. Ice is a broken hip or a broken rib. Ice is terrible."
• Jason Samenow [06:42]:
  • “This is going to be a winter weather situation, a severe winter weather situation we're not accustomed to.”

2. NFL: Coaching Rumors, Team Futures, and Playoff Discussion

[19:17 – 34:54]

Jason La Canfora Joins to Discuss:

• Buffalo Bills Fire Sean McDermott
  • Surprised by the firing, more so by how it was handled; expects Buffalo will hire from within their “football culture”.
  • Quote [22:36, La Canfora]:
    • “Not many people get to [Buffalo’s] success every year... so the fact that they're going to find somebody younger, cheaper, and more malleable... It feels a little counterintuitive to me.”
• Lamar Jackson’s Influence in Baltimore
  • “Lamar’s got to have a relationship with the offensive coordinator,” but the organization—not the QB—sets coaching direction; questions the probable hire of Cliff Kingsbury as OC.
• John Harbaugh to Giants
  • Not surprised, praised the Giants for changing their approach, giving Harbaugh team president–level power.
  • Quote [28:34, La Canfora]:
    • “He’s Bill Belichick. He’s the team president. He’s the head coach. And that’s a paradigm that hasn’t existed there really ever."
• Rams/Seahawks and Broncos/Patriots Playoff Games
  • Lays out strengths/weaknesses and betting angles for each game, pointing out uncertainties in quarterback situations and specific X-factors (e.g., Denver altitude, special teams, Stafford’s finger).

3. Betting Picks and Analysis: James Carville & Jeff Ma

[35:57 – 49:38]

James Carville’s Picks

• Reflects on a rough 0–3 previous week.
• This Week’s Bets:
  • Broncos +5
  • Seahawks -2.5
  • Patriots/Broncos game over 42 points
  • Quote [37:22, Carville]:
    • “We don’t care about 500. Going for the downs.”
• Sean Payton’s Confidence in Stidham
  • Tony notes: Payton bringing in Stidham as insurance shows trust in the backup QB.
• Considers Indiana Football’s recent success “the best sports story of my lifetime.” [40:05, Carville]

Jeff Ma’s Picks & Analytics

• Discusses modeling “alpha” (advantage) in betting lines, especially when quarterback uncertainty like the Broncos' Stidham comes into play.
• Picks:
  • Patriots -4.5
  • Over 42 (Broncos/Patriots)
  • Rams +2.5
  • Over 46.5 (Rams/Seahawks)
  • Quote [47:24, Ma]:
    • “I love going to Carville’s bookie.”
• Explains the overcorrection in Rams’ offense due to recent bad weather games. Notes the importance of specific personnel (Rams, Seahawks' Zach Charbonnet in pass protection).
• Introduces his guest on his own podcast Bet the Process, and offers prop bets and insights.

4. Listener Interactions & Mailbag

[51:54 – close]

• Snow Haiku
  • “Snow chances rising / word significant is used / snow more possible snow possible.” [53:14, Listener Shad]
• Local Humor:
  • Jokes about regional storm response, pronunciation of Washington towns, and quirky betting notes.
  • Community connection—listeners write from all over, tying local references and show inside jokes.
• Personal Note:
  • A moving letter from a listener reflecting on loss, and thanks to the show for a sense of normalcy.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Exchanges

• Tony [04:58]:
  "Ice is the scariest word. Ice is when you're my age and you walk in the dog. Ice is a broken hip or a broken rib."

• Jason Samenow [06:42]:
  "This is going to be a winter weather situation, a severe winter weather situation we're not accustomed to."

• Jason La Canfora [22:36]:
  "Not many people get to [Buffalo’s] success every year... so the fact that they're going to find somebody younger, cheaper, and more malleable... It feels a little counterintuitive to me."

• James Carville [37:22]:
  "We don’t care about 500. Going for the downs."

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:19 | Jason Samenow begins detailed DC winter storm outlook | | 04:58 | Tony on the dangers of ice | | 06:42 | Samenow: Explains why this event is highly unusual for the region | | 09:30 | Why original snow forecasts were much higher | | 13:22 | Samenow’s advice on storm prep | | 19:17 | Jason La Canfora on NFL news, Buffalo coaching, and playoff games | | 35:57 | Picks segment opens with James Carville | | 47:24 | Jeff Ma: Analysis and his picks for the weekend | | 51:54 | Listener correspondence, haiku, and personal highlights |

Episode Tone & Highlights

• Tone:
  Conversational, insightful, and occasionally self-deprecating. Tony guides discussions with humor and candor, encouraging expertise and authenticity from his guests.
• Weather Segment:
  Informative, urgent, and practical. Listeners gain a real sense of impending disruption.
• NFL/Betting Segments:
  Analytical but playful—friendly rivalry and digging into numbers and narrative.
• Listener Contributions:
  Blend nostalgia, show lore, and local knowledge, reinforcing community and approachability.

Final Takeaways

• D.C. faces a rare and potentially hazardous mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain with prolonged cold—residents should prepare for dangerous conditions and slow recovery, especially in neighborhoods.
• NFL playoff drama is high—coaching changes, betting angles, QB controversies, and insider reporting get expert treatment.
• Tony’s show provides a unique blend: hyperlocal weather authority, national sports talk, old friends’ advice on betting, and a sense that listeners are part of the family.

This summary was crafted to help listeners quickly understand the content, main arguments, and character of “Winter’s Coming” without sitting through the entire episode.