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This episode of the Town is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting Frankenstein. Nominated for five Golden Globe Awards including Best Motion Picture Drama, Best Director and best Adapted Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro. The New York Times hails Frankenstein is stunning. The movie Guillermo del Toro was born to make. Starring Golden Globe nominees Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi, Esq. Raves Frankenstein will be considered a classic for lifetimes to come for your awards consideration. This episode is brought to you by HBO Max. For the doctors and nurses on the pit, the work never stops. The Emmy Award winner for outstanding Drama series is back for a new real time shift with 15 high staked hours told across 15 must see episodes. Starring Emmy Award winner Noah Wylie, the critically acclaimed Max original series returns for a second season this Thursday at 9pm on HBO Max. Check out the official companion podcast on HBO Max and all major podcast platforms. It is Monday, January 5th. It's 2026. Welcome back everyone in Hollywood and beyond. It's going to be a pretty monumental year in the business, I think. Not just who's going to take over Warner Brothers or who's going to replace Bob Iger at Disney or can the Russo brothers manage to screw up an Avengers movie? I think the answer to that one is probably yes. Bigger picture. The forces that are remaking the entertainment business in the name of big tech are only accelerating. It seems like some of the fundamental basics of traditional entertainment are seriously endangered, whether it's TV writers or the talent agencies or movie theaters. Maybe this is the year that Hollywood writes Ship finally figures out the new normal, how to coexist with Google and AI and maybe even turn a narrative of downsizing and reduced ambition into something more hopeful. Out of chaos comes opportunity. Maybe that's our new mantra. So today, Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg is here. Our Monday guy, he's back from his holiday yacht. Was caught up in the whole Venezuela thing with Leo, but he's here. And we're going to get into our most burning questions for 2026. Not the obvious stuff, not the Disney Warner stuff, but the sneaky stuff. The stories that may define this year and beyond box office and streaming and YouTube. All of it burning questions for 26 on our first show of the year. And by the way, we also now have an Instagram. Welcome to 26. Welcome to 2019. Maybe you can see me watch clips on at the Town with Matt Bellany. More video to come as well. Today, burning questions from the ringer and puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay, we are here with Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg Back for 2026. Welcome, Lucas.
B
This is the moment you've been waiting for. You're now a video star.
A
I know. It's been all leading up to this. So let's go forward and look towards the year because. Because it's going to be a pretty monumental year, I think. Lots of trends that are coming to a head. I don't want to talk about the whole Warner situation. I don't want to talk about who's going to be Disney CEO. Everybody's talking about that.
B
Mostly because you know that we're going to talk about that 12 times in the next month.
A
Exactly. So let's talk about some of the sneakier or more undercover or things that are not being talked about as much that probably should be talked about. Starting with, are we gonna have a strike? Is there gonna be possibly another freaking shutdown of the industry? This is maybe gonna be a rebound year for the box office. Maybe some of these companies are gonna start to return to the level of TV production that they once were at, and we're just gonna torpedo the whole thing with another strike.
B
God, I hope not. But yes, very real.
A
May 1st. May 1st is the deadline.
B
When you consider that concerns about AI have only grown since the last time there was a strike and that first David Ellison bought Paramount and now you have Warner Brothers being sold, which all the guilds are freaked out about because their members are freaked out about it. It does increase the odds from where we were, I think, even a few months ago. And then. I don't know if this is a wild card, but the fact that you have Chris Nolan on top of the Director's Guild, and the Director's Guild was usually like the most pliant of the three majors with the actors, writers and directors. I feel like that throws a little, you know, little wrench into it as well.
A
Does it? Or is Chris Nolan working? Like, the problem, I think, with a lot of these guilds is that the leadership and a lot of the people that are making the decisions are not working as much. And they are often driving the bus for those people who are not working. And they're very concerned with this kind of bottom tier. And here you have the number one director, arguably atop this guild. Maybe that means he's gonna not be as serious about driving a hard bargain. Or maybe he's gonna wanna use his leverage.
B
He will wanna use his leverage, but ultimately in the name of compromise, because he doesn't wanna go on strike right before he has a movie come out.
A
Yes, it's not the directors it's the writers. Right. I mean, all the big. It's been a big moment for people monitoring the situation. A lot of monitoring the situation emails. But the writers are the ones that are going to be the most aggressive because they always are.
B
Yeah. Although you don't think that the actors will be aggressive as well.
A
Sure.
B
You don't have faith in Sean Astin. No.
A
And Duncan Crabtree Ireland who comes on the show like they are reasonable people that at least in their public statements have taken a measured approach here. They're not anti AI, they're not putting out statements denouncing either buyer of Warner Brothers. They're trying to get the best deal for their members, which I think is smart. And this whole notion that the studios are going to put on the table a five year deal to try to fund their health requirements. You know, the problem with a lot of these guilds now is they had so many new members during peak TV that now aren't working. And the health and pension benefits are significant. Significant that a lot of these health and benefit plans are in trouble. So the studios are seeing that and they're trying to rush in here and say like, oh, we will help your base members with their health coverage if you give us X, Y, Z benefits, including. It's been floated a five year deal so they don't have to do this every three years. Now the three year negotiating cycle is the primary point of leverage for these guilds. So I can't see them agreeing to a five year cycle. That's just like precedent setting. But maybe the state of their health plans does mean that that is going to be their priority. Which seems like a very fixable issue rather than some of these larger, more existential issues like AI or consolidation.
B
There's not that much they can ask for with regard to consolidation. It's not like the Writers Guild is going to put in its contract. Studios are not allowed to merge, right?
A
No, but they can either agree or not agree to press for the state attorney generals to go after these mergers or put out statements and picket over these mergers. Like that kind of voice could be an effective voice if, say Netflix buys Warner Brothers.
B
Yeah. It feels like AI will be the other than just the same industry contraction malaise that affected folks last time because you have so many people out of work. That AI is the kind of the existential boogeyman this time. Last time it was like the hot new hot topic, but ultimately kind of a side show. This time I feel like it'll be more of the main event.
A
It's crazy. When I did the SAG AFTRA panel at CES three years ago, it was like kind of shocking to me that they wanted it to focus on AI because I did not think that was going to be the crux of the argument. And then by May, June, July, it.
B
Was a big one.
A
The only thing people were talking about and I'm doing on on Thursday, I'm doing their panel again this year. So it'll be interesting to see what they talk about there. And obviously the topic is AI but maybe there's other stuff that may come up. So just a lot of wild cards. Plus, you have on the studio side, you have a new negotiator. Carol Lombardini has retired, and this guy Greg Hessinger is now leading the amptp. So it'll be interesting to see if he tries to kind of stake his ground and make an example of some of these more vocal gills or if he has a new strategy here.
B
Do you think they're going to be cousin Greg memes if this gets ugly?
A
I don't know. I did like the Carol Lombardini eating at the Cheesecake Factory in the Valley memes about, you know, because the AMPTB offices are in the mall. And Sherman.
B
Yes.
A
I'm going to miss the Carol Lombardini jokes. I'm sure the Writers Guild will come up with a lot of new ones for Greg Hessinger. Okay, let's move on. Give me your next burning question here.
B
I think the biggest question for a lot of these media companies is going to be how much more are we going to have to write the NFL an even bigger check. This is year because the NFL contract is not up for several years, but they can opt out early. And they have signaled that they would begin the negotiations for the early opt out as soon as 2026.
A
Yes. Here is Roger Goodell's quote that he was speaking, I believe in December. He said, I think our partners would want to sit down and talk to us at any time and we continue to dialogue with them. I like that opportunity. Obviously, it's not going to happen this year before referring to 25, but it could happen as early as next year. That could happen. So Roger Goodell doesn't just talk out of his ass. He wants this to happen as soon as possible. The rights are not up until 2029.
B
No, that I think is the early opt out.
A
Yeah, that's the opt out, which everyone assumes will be the opt out.
B
The rights are out up in the 30s.
A
Right.
B
But they saw that the NBA got basically tripled its money they're saying we're eight times for no ratings.
A
It's not like the NBA is lighting the world on fire.
B
The NFL is so much more popular than the NBA. Let's go get our money. And oh, by the way, since we last did that deal, you know, Netflix is starting to mess around a little bit. We've got a new owner at Paramount, we've got a new streaming service with Disney, espn. What more can we milk out of these people?
A
And if I'm running one of these companies, I'm thinking, oh shit, like how do I run a business when the one piece of content I have to have is about to get super expensive, even more expensive than it already is.
B
It's already unprofitable on a standalone basis, but you believe it benefits you by flowing through your pipes, basically. And now you're gonna have to pay probably twice as much for the same stuff, sometimes maybe even less.
A
Which brings up two questions, which is, is the NFL must have for these companies at any cost? If you're Fox or you're CBS and you're looking at this and you're thinking, like, am I? I'm just going to get completely bowled over by the NFL, maybe not worth it.
B
I think for Fox it's not really a question. They've kind of built that company around sports and news. And you can't be a sports and news company and not have the NFL.
A
But they also have, they don't have other stuff to amortize it and make money on theme parks and other things when your NFL deal.
B
Well, nobody makes money from theme parks with the NFL.
A
No, no, no, that's what I'm saying. But if you're Disney and you have to overpay, you at least can say, okay, we're a diversified media company that has other things coming into the pool. Fox, they got Fox News, they got NFL, right?
B
And college football. But yeah, CBS with Paramount would, if not for the. The wealth of Larry and David Ellison would seem like the weakest player, right? It's the smallest company, the weakest looking company. CBS as a going concern needs the NFL. That's like the linchpin to them, continuing to be carried by all these different pay TV operators. And while the number of people paying continues to go down, that still generates the lion's share of the money for that company. So they have to keep the NFL. The question is just how expensive does it get?
A
I would argue also that the NFL needs cbs. They still do. They are a total reach sports league. And if all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders and it was all of a sudden on Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and maybe one broadcast partner. Like that's not good for the NFL either.
B
The Sunday day games on Fox and CBS continue to be the highest rated NFL broadcasts. More so than Monday Night Football on espn, certainly more so than Thursday on Amazon.
A
And there is a portion of their fan base that is still unlinear.
B
Right. Sunday on NBC, the three main windows that are on broadcast, Fox, CBS and NBC with Sunday night are the most watched. And the NFL would probably like to keep them there. And I think one of the big questions is will Amazon, which has Thursday night, try to add another package or trade packages? Because it obviously has the money to do that. I still, it feels like we might still be a little early for Netflix to jump in.
A
Oh, I think they're going to go after this international package.
B
You think so?
A
NFL is going to carve out an international. It makes perfect sense for Netflix. They're global. And if the NFL wants to grow the game internationally, Netflix is a great partner there because they can produce a global broadcast and try to grow it for the NFL while having their own carve out thing.
B
Yeah, could be.
A
And how much do you think that would affect Netflix's spend on original content? Well, that's part two. That's my next part. Thank you, Craig.
B
It depends on how expensive the international package is.
A
Exactly. And I think that for the two NFL partners that are in the film and television business, but not tech companies, I'm thinking NBCUniversal and Disney, you start to think about how much they're going to pull back on entertainment content.
B
We're not including Paramount as in the film and television business.
A
No, we are, but. But they are billionaire controlled.
B
Got it.
A
They are privately held.
B
Subsidized.
A
Okay, subsidized, Exactly. I'm talking about NBC Universal and Disney, which have to kind of think about their shareholders and have to kind of think about their value. Even though Comcast is.
B
Comcast is kind of control.
A
Yes, Right. But. But you know what I'm saying. I think that this will lead between the NBA and the NFL. It will lead to a pullback in content, spend on entertainment content. It just kind of has to. I feel like it already has been.
B
I think it has. Comcast has made it clear that it will to some extent at their company already because of the NBA deal. Right. That they weren't in the NBA business. Then they plopped down a couple billion dollars a year to get in the NBA business.
A
They're also in The MLB business don't. No disrespect to the mlb, but smaller deal.
B
So they have made sports a kind of a foundational piece for Peacock. And obviously sports is very important for broadcast, so it will eat into the original programming. Now granted, in the case of NBCUniversal, if that means like, you know, that's also less original programming on the cable networks that they've since spun out into Versant and then a little bit less on NBC broadcast, that's fine. I mean you have to remember a lot of these companies for the for during the peak TV era were funding original programming for streaming without tapering off their fund their original programming for linear television networks. And so if we're reaching some middle point where they're basically funding kind of one central network in Peacock and it flows through the other places, it's not the end of the world. But I hear you. It means less spending on film and television.
A
True. Shout out to Versant debuted on the stock market today.
B
Stock is down.
A
It went public on the Nasdaq and promptly dropped 13% in the first day. Now the day is not over, so maybe it comes back triumphantly, but not a great beginning for Versant.
B
I don't think there's a world in which any of these companies would walk away from the NFL. No, I get that it will impact the other spending at Disney maybe a little bit less.
A
So yeah, maybe there are compromises they can make. There are a lot of Jackson games they have like CBS may throw in some more games into other packages in order to reduce the cost or some, some shenanigans like that like sell off certain games like Disney did to TNT for some of the college football games. There are ways that they can jigger this so that the costs are not as much as the NFL would like for these companies. But they can't get rid of it. It's the only thing propping it up.
B
Disney's so deeply in business with them now because they also did their NFL media deal to bolster the ESPN streaming service, so.
A
Exactly. So not going to happen.
C
From Focus Features. Movies are a place of dreams. And this year one movie captures that spirit like no other. Based on a true story. Critics hail Song Sun Blue is a tribute to the the resilience of humanity.
B
Trying to be better. Aren't we all?
C
Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson are electric.
A
Bad things happen. I just want to sing and I want to shine.
C
In the best picture of the year. Song sung blue, rated PG13 may be inappropriate for children under 13 now playing only in theaters.
A
This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. Searchlight Pictures presents Rental Family. Writer director Hikari crafts a masterpiece of visual cinema and heartfelt connection. Weaving together exquisite cinematography, a transcendent score, and pitch perfect casting, Academy Award winner Brendan Fraser delivers a masterful performance in one of the best films of the year. A transportive love letter to Japan, Rental Family is the rare introduction of a new, unique and instantly identifiable voice. Critics are calling it pure movie magic and a stunning achievement for your consideration in all categories. My big burning question for 2026. My next one is, does David Ellison have taste? This is not a new question. This is something that people have been whispering around town since he bought Paramount. Since he was interested, honestly.
B
Before that.
A
Before that. I mean, he has such power at Paramount. And this is irrespective of whether they buy Warner Brothers. I'm just talking about Paramount because he now controls the studio. He installed his Skydance people to run the film group. He's got Cindy Holland, who does have taste, has a track record of taste at the streaming service, but a track.
B
Record of taste that is different from what has made Paramount work.
A
Yes, yes, true.
B
Or what has worked on Paramount issues.
A
That's true. So since then, they've already got into business with the Stranger Things guys. They're doing a Call of Duty movie. They're reimagining Ninja Turtles. They signed James Mangold. They're doing talent deals. But just for fun, I asked Maya Tribit, our researcher at Puck, to look at the Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores of every single Skydance movie and television show. People don't realize this. David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies, like, a lot of bad movies. And this is not. This is including the Paramount franchises that he has been involved in, like Mission Impossible and Jack Reacher and Top Gun. The overall Rotten Tomatoes score of all of his films, 56%. The Metacritic score, 53.8. Not great. And below the studio average. Now the audience score is a little higher. He prides himself on making big franchise entertainment for general audiences. 66% on Rotten Tomato. And the user score on Metacritic is a 7.3. Yeah, but what about the box office? The Paramount franchises make money. A lot of them are for streaming. If we look at the movies that Skydance released in 2025, they had the Gorge on Apple TV, which got a 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, Mission Impossible, the Final Reckoning, Fountain of Youth, direct to Apple, the old guard 2, 27% on rotten tomatoes that went direct to Netflix. The Family Plan 2. Mark Wahlberg, 38% on Rotten Tomatoes. Not great.
B
And of those, I think the Gorge was probably the most successful.
A
The Gorge was a hit for Apple.
B
Right.
A
The Old guard.
B
Old Guard 2 obviously had a bigger audience because of Netflix, but I think it was a step down from Old Guard one.
A
And there were problems on that movie. Charlize hated the director. They weren't speaking. There was all sorts of issues sheets on that movie. But the question I have is like, you got David Ellison now in charge of a studio. What kind of movies are they going to make? Are they going to make a lot of ghosted? Are they going to make Spy Kids Armageddon? Are they going to make Luck, the animated movie from John Lasseter? The greatest beer run ever?
B
Well, they want to make Mission Impossible in Star Trek. That's what he wants to make. Skydance. When it wasn't co financing the Paramount tentpoles was trying to make those big blockbusters on its own and those generally were not very good.
A
And he says he's gonna release 15 movies a year in theaters. They can't all be Star Trek.
B
Well, and he says that they're gonna all be tentpoles, basically. Right. I don't think he wants to make like small family dramas or. I mean, I'm sure there'll be some low budget horror, maybe they'll take a swing or two with comedy. But they're gonna make a bunch of big movies and some of them will work and some of them won't. I think the question you're asking ties into this larger question about David Ellison, which I've been asked a lot, which is like, other than co financing some big movies for Paramount, like what is in the Skydance track record tells you that he's ready to run a really big media company. Right. Their experimentation in animation with John Lasseter, as you mentioned, has not gone well.
A
No, Netflix wants out of that deal.
B
Their video game division never really materialized into anything. They haven't, they've. They've had some successful television shows, but it's not like it. It was kind of this big thriving company.
A
Yeah. And for those who don't know, their TV shows recently are like Cross, which is a hit on Amazon, the Alex Cross show. They had something called the Runarounds. Not sure what that is. They had fubar, the Arnold Schwarzenegger show that did pretty well on Netflix. Reacher Foundation, Jack Ryan.
B
Yeah, I mean, Reacher is the biggest hit for Amazon. One of their, if not their first television show is Grace and Frankie, which is one of the longest running shows For Netflix. So they've had some hits.
A
Yeah. But we'll see on the film side, big questions like, yeah, they're doing a Timothee Chalamet movie. Is it going to be good? We'll see. All right, next one.
B
So I'm going to keep it with movies. Will a studio other than Disney finish first place at the box office for the first time in more than a decade? If you take out the two Covid years, Disney's.
A
Oh, that's a good one.
B
Disney's been the number one studio at the worldwide box office. I actually, I thought it was 2015 was the last time someone else. But I think Universal just beat them domestically. I think Disney still won worldwide. I mean, Disney has been the top studio for so damn long, and they have a really loaded slate next year.
A
Yeah. So just to set the table here, the overall box office for 25 domestically came in below expectations about a little less than 9 billion. We don't have the international number yet. The expectation from most analysts is that 26 will either reach or get above 10 billion, which has been the goal of the industry. Our buddy Adam Aaron has been talking about this for a while.
B
We haven't hit 9 billion since before the pandemic. We also obviously then haven't hit 10 billion since before the pandemic. In the. In the five or six years before the pandemic, 10 billion was every year was 10 billion plus.
A
Right. So do you think we can reach that? I don't want to get into our box office draft. We're not going to talk about which movie is going to be number one.
B
I think nine is. No question. Ten depends on some of these will they, won't they movies. Right. So Disney has Toy Story 5. It has a live action Moana. It has a new Avengers movie. It has a sequel to Devil Wears Prada. It has a Mandalorian movie. And then it has a couple of original animated movies, which, as we know, have been very risky the last few years. You have not seen them work very well. Universal has New Mario, New Minions, Christopher Nolan, a big Steven Spielberg movie.
A
Yeah. Many questions there. Is Spielberg still a draw?
B
He hasn't had a big movie in a long, long, long time.
A
I think west side Story would have been much bigger had it not been delayed a year and released at the end of 21. Like, if it were a normal situation, I think west side Story would have been much bigger. Sure.
B
But even Ready Player one wasn't like.
A
A. Yeah, and then he was doing the post. He was doing Fabelmans like these were not big tentpole, but this Alien movie, they are positioning as summer movie.
B
But there is a stretch in June and July because you also have a new Spider man movie where like every weekend, basically there is a big movie. I have to imagine nine is easy and 10 is possible. But what do you think about my initial question? Do you think Universal can beat Disney next year or this year?
A
Depends on Nolan. Honestly, the Odyssey could be a $700 million movie or it could be 2 billion.
B
You think 700 million is the floor?
A
Yeah, I do. Given the stars and the scale and the marketing that they are already doing. They're running ads during football for a movie that doesn't come out till July and the hoopla around him. I do think 700 is the floor for a global property like this. Everybody knows what the Odyssey is, unless it sucks, which it's not gonna suck.
B
We're treating an ancient Greek story as though it is the best.
A
You know what it is an ancient Greek story that everybody reads in high school. Like, I haven't seen any data on it, but like, if you awareness is going to be through the roof on this, everybody knows what it is.
B
People in the US I don't know that everybody in Brazil reads the Odyssey in high school.
A
I don't know. I don't have that kind of demographic.
B
Data on me or Korea or Japan.
A
But they're Greek heroic epics. I bet they do. It doesn't matter. They're spending. They're spending $300 million on this thing. It's going to be epic. And people are going to go like, I think 700 is the floor. So you're.
B
Are you one of the people who thinks that this could be the number one movie of the year?
A
No, I'm not.
B
Okay, that's.
A
That's silly. Because if you look at what else, Billions.
B
So I.
A
No, I said upper echelon. Like, best case, dream scenario. But more likely it gets to 11 2. Huge hit, everyone wins. But it's not going to be the biggest movie of the year. We got a Spider man movie. We've got Avengers Doomsday, which, even if it sucks, is going to get to 151 7, right?
B
Probably.
A
Craig probably would say no, that everyone's moved on from the Avengers. I don't think that's true. I think it's true. I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it this.
B
Year when Avengers Doomsday comes out.
A
Wow. The hottest take.
B
Are you more excited about the Devil wears Prada 2 or Fokker in Law.
A
Personally, I think Focker in Law sounds funny because Ariana Grande is funny. She's basically the star of this one. I mean, Devil wears Prada 2 is obviously much more of an event, but that'll be bad. That's a cash grab. That's not bad. That'll be Legacy. I'm morbidly curious how that will turn out, but, yeah, Ariana in a comedy is.
B
Is great. Yeah.
A
Morbidly curious. Like, how bad could it be? I don't know. I don't want to talk about movies that we haven't seen yet or that we have not seen. I think that the better question is what has to happen for Universal to beat Disney this year? And I think a lot has to happen.
B
Mario would have to be bigger than Toy Story 5, which.
A
I don't know. I've talked to people who have seen Toy Story 5, and they say it's excellent.
B
I'm just saying that's what would have to happen. Mario and Minions combined would need to beat Toy Story 5. Plus Hoppers and Hex. Like Disney has three animated movies next year. The Moana live action movie would need to not be a huge hit, which feels unlikely. And yeah, the Spielberg and Nolan movies both have to hit in a big way. And who knows what this Mandalorian movie's gonna do?
A
I know that's gonna be a surprise. That's a big, wild surprise. It is. But I think it's gonna vastly underperform the most recent Story wars movie, which, as terrible as it was, still got to a billion.
B
Yeah.
A
All right, let's finish this up. Rapid fire. Biggest YouTube questions of the year. I think they're gonna. They're gonna buy something else. They're gonna get off the Oscars. The Oscars are not the end of this. They are gonna get. Whether it's more NFL or other big events, YouTube is not gonna stop.
B
Yeah, I think that's. That's fair. My. My question is smaller because I. I guess they already have Sunday Ticket. They certainly could compete for one of the other NFL packages. They have the resources would be which Hollywood producer is going to, try to, like, take a big swing and make a show directly for YouTube. Not necessarily financed by YouTube.
A
No, it'll be financed by outside people.
B
Right, but which will give them ownership over the show, potentially, which they will like. And it will be an experiment and a risk.
A
And then once it airs on YouTube for a year, they'll sell it to Amazon prime and try to make.
B
Or to Netflix or to somewhere.
A
Yes. All right. That's not bad. I also had the Saudi. The Saudis taking a more aggressive role in content, which is already happening. But I think it's going to accelerate.
B
How many times this year do we think there will be scandals at CBS News?
A
Oh, God, we not talk about this. Very. Like, everyone's freaking out about CBS Evening News, like, declaring itself more conservative now. Like, of course they are. Like, they're looking at the landscape. Fox News dominates everybody. And then all the other media outlets scramble for the other audience. Yeah, CBS is going after Fox News. It's pretty clear, like, everybody in the journalism world will clutch their pearls over this. But it's a business. They want the Fox News viewer and they're going to be more conservative. They're going to troll. They're going to do all the things that Fox does. Everybody, everyone's going to freak out. And I bet the ratings will go up. All right, Lucas, we will anxiously see if we are right. We're all about accountability. So we will revisit some of these burning questions throughout the year. Thank you.
B
Thanks, man.
A
All right, no call sheet today. I want to thank my guests, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horlebeck, art director Jesse Lopez. And I want to thank you. We will see you a couple more times this week.
Episode: "2026 Burning Questions: Another Strike? Is 'Avengers: Doomsday' Doomed? And David Ellison’s Movie Taste."
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Matthew Belloni (A, from Puck)
Guest: Lukas Shaw (B, from Bloomberg)
In this kick-off episode for 2026, host Matthew Belloni and returning guest Lukas Shaw dive into Hollywood’s biggest "burning questions" for the year—beyond the headline-grabbing Disney/Warner CEO shuffles. The discussion centers on under-the-radar trends and existential uncertainties shaping the business: another looming industry strike, the sports rights arms race, the taste and future strategy of David Ellison’s Skydance-led Paramount, box office shake-ups, the battle between streaming and theatrical, and the potential for disruption from tech giants and non-Hollywood players.
The episode is sharp, skeptical, and industry-savvy, aiming for insight into what’s next rather than rehearsing last year’s headlines.
“You have the number one director, arguably, atop this guild. Maybe that means he's not as serious about driving a hard bargain. Or maybe he's gonna wanna use his leverage.” (A, 04:17)
“Now the three year negotiating cycle is the primary point of leverage for these guilds. So I can't see them agreeing to a five year cycle.” (A, 06:08)
“If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.” (A, 12:14)
“David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... overall Rotten Tomatoes score of all his films: 56%.” (A, 19:05)
“Are they going to make a lot of ghosted? Are they going to make Spy Kids Armageddon?” (A, 21:02)
“Could be a $700 million movie or it could be $2 billion.” (A, 25:14)
“I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it, this year when Avengers Doomsday comes out.” (B, 27:05)
On labor negotiations and AI anxiety:
“AI is the kind of the existential boogeyman this time. Last time it was like the hot new hot topic, but ultimately kind of a side show. This time I feel like it'll be more of the main event.”
— B, 07:19
On sports and business reality:
“If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.”
— A, 12:14
On David Ellison’s creative reputation:
“David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... This is not. This is including the Paramount franchises that he has been involved in.”
— A, 19:05
On the box office stakes for 2026:
“Are you one of the people who thinks that [Odyssey] could be the number one movie of the year?”
— B, 26:27
“No, I'm not... But more likely it gets to 1.1, 1.2 [billion]. Huge hit, everyone wins. But it's not going to be the biggest movie of the year. We've got a Spider man movie. We've got Avengers Doomsday, which, even if it sucks, is going to get to 1.5, 1.7, right?”
— A, 26:30
On superhero franchise fatigue:
“I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it... when Avengers Doomsday comes out.”
— B, 27:05
The episode is analytical and shrewd, with dry humor and “inside baseball” industry talk. Both hosts blend skepticism with practical business sense, making predictions but often poking fun at Hollywood’s groupthink and overreliance on legacy models.
This is a robust, fast-moving breakdown of Hollywood’s real 2026 anxieties. Belloni and Shaw skip obvious headlines to reveal under-reported concerns and strategic questions: Will tech and labor unrest disrupt business-as-usual again? Are legacy studio giants doomed by their own bloat, or do they still have time to adapt? Is anyone brave (or foolish) enough to bet against the NFL? And is the next great creative disruptor a Silicon Valley codebase…or just a new billionaire with questionable taste?
Summary prepared using original dialogue and episode structure.