Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: "2026 Burning Questions: Another Strike? Is 'Avengers: Doomsday' Doomed? And David Ellison’s Movie Taste."
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Matthew Belloni (A, from Puck)
Guest: Lukas Shaw (B, from Bloomberg)

Overview

In this kick-off episode for 2026, host Matthew Belloni and returning guest Lukas Shaw dive into Hollywood’s biggest "burning questions" for the year—beyond the headline-grabbing Disney/Warner CEO shuffles. The discussion centers on under-the-radar trends and existential uncertainties shaping the business: another looming industry strike, the sports rights arms race, the taste and future strategy of David Ellison’s Skydance-led Paramount, box office shake-ups, the battle between streaming and theatrical, and the potential for disruption from tech giants and non-Hollywood players.

The episode is sharp, skeptical, and industry-savvy, aiming for insight into what’s next rather than rehearsing last year’s headlines.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will There Be Another Hollywood Strike? (03:03 – 08:55)

Context: New labor agreements are coming up; May 1 is a crucial date.
AI & Consolidation:
- AI concerns have only grown, becoming a dominant issue for guilds this round.
- Industry consolidation (e.g. David Ellison buying Paramount, Warner Bros potentially being sold) has both studios and unions on edge.
Guild Dynamics:
- WGA is expected to take the most aggressive stance—historically the pattern.
- DGA has Chris Nolan at the helm, which is significant:
  
  “You have the number one director, arguably, atop this guild. Maybe that means he's not as serious about driving a hard bargain. Or maybe he's gonna wanna use his leverage.” (A, 04:17)
- Actors’ (SAG-AFTRA) leadership seen as measured—focused on best deal for members rather than ideologically anti-AI.
Health & Benefits Crunch:
- Due to reduced production post-peak TV, many newer guild members aren’t working, putting stress on union health/pension plans.
- Studios may use this to push for a historic 5-year deal (rather than the usual 3), but Belloni doubts unions will agree:
  
  “Now the three year negotiating cycle is the primary point of leverage for these guilds. So I can't see them agreeing to a five year cycle.” (A, 06:08)
Leadership Change:
- New AMPTP negotiator Greg Hessinger replaces Carol Lombardini, introducing uncertainty to this year’s labor strategy.

2. The Next Sports Rights Gold Rush: NFL & Streaming (09:06 – 16:49)

NFL’s Leverage:
- The NFL’s rights deal is up for early renegotiation; Roger Goodell wants to accelerate talks following the NBA’s massive rights increase.
Who Needs Whom?
- Fox built around sports/news—can’t afford to lose the NFL.
- CBS/Paramount seen as vulnerable, but the NFL would suffer reach loss if over-reliant on streamers, per Belloni:
  
  “If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.” (A, 12:14)
Enter the Tech Giants:
- Netflix and Amazon are sniffing around; Netflix likely to pursue a global/international NFL package.
- Lukas: “Still feels a little early for Netflix to jump in” (B, 13:13)
- Belloni: “Oh, I think they're going to go after this international package... makes perfect sense for Netflix.” (A, 13:16)
Impact on Content Budgets:
- “This will lead between the NBA and the NFL, it will lead to a pullback in content spend on entertainment content. It just kind of has to.” (A, 14:21)
- NBCUniversal for example is already reducing original content to finance their new NBA deal.
No Escape:
- No major media company can realistically walk away from the NFL, but the cost will shift resources away from traditional film/TV programming.

3. Burning Question: Does David Ellison Have Taste? (18:16 – 22:51)

Ellison's Track Record:
- Controls Paramount and has Skydance veterans running film/streaming.
- Striking stat:
  
  “David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... overall Rotten Tomatoes score of all his films: 56%.” (A, 19:05)
  - Metacritic score: 53.8 (below studio average)
  - Audience scores higher: 66% RT, Metacritic 7.3 (reflecting mass appeal)
- 2025 Skydance movies: “The Gorge” (hit on AppleTV), “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning", “Fountain of Youth”, “The Old Guard 2” (27% RT), “The Family Plan 2” (38% RT). Most did not fare well with critics.
Future Strategy:
- Announced intent to release 15 movies per year, most positioned as tentpoles.
- Belloni skeptical that the taste/quality will be there:
  
  “Are they going to make a lot of ghosted? Are they going to make Spy Kids Armageddon?” (A, 21:02)
- Skydance's animation, TV, and gaming arms have been uneven commercially/artistically (even Netflix wants out of Skydance Animation).
Open Question:
- Does Ellison have what it takes to run a major media company, or has he simply co-financed successful Paramount franchises?
- Lukas: “What is in the Skydance track record tells you that he's ready to run a really big media company?” (B, 21:25)

4. Box Office: Can Anyone Beat Disney—and Will ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Flop? (22:52 – 28:29)

Disney’s Reign:
- Disney’s led the global box office almost every year (excluding Covid) for a decade.
2026 Competition:
- Disney slate: “Toy Story 5”, live action “Moana”, “Avengers: Doomsday”, “Devil Wears Prada 2”, “Mandalorian”, new animated films.
- Universal: new “Mario”, “Minions”, a Christopher Nolan Odyssey epic, Spielberg tentpole, new “Spider-Man.”
Box Office Projections:
- Domestic box office in 2025 was < $9B, aiming for $10B+ in 2026, possibly hitting pre-pandemic levels.
Universal’s Chances:
- Depends on Nolan’s “Odyssey”:
  
  “Could be a $700 million movie or it could be $2 billion.” (A, 25:14)
  - A $700M floor is predicted—if it’s truly an event film.
Superhero Fatigue:
- Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” expected to do big numbers regardless, but skepticism remains:
  
  “I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it, this year when Avengers Doomsday comes out.” (B, 27:05)
Legacy Sequels:
- “Devil Wears Prada 2” seen as a cash grab; interest is more curiosity than enthusiasm.

5. YouTube, Tech, and the Saudis—Next Disruptors? (28:30 – 30:23)

YouTube’s Ambitions:
- Will expand beyond acquiring Oscar streaming rights, possibly seeking more NFL games or broadcast events.
Will Hollywood Try Direct-to-YouTube Shows?
- Lukas wonders who will be the first to take a swing at making premium content directly for YouTube (not YouTube financed), aiming for new ownership models and secondary licensing (to Netflix, Amazon, etc.).
Saudi Investment:
- Belloni predicts an even more aggressive Saudi footprint in global content markets.
CBS News’ Shift:
- CBS trying to capture Fox News’ audience by moving rightward strategically (not editorially debated in this episode).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On labor negotiations and AI anxiety:

“AI is the kind of the existential boogeyman this time. Last time it was like the hot new hot topic, but ultimately kind of a side show. This time I feel like it'll be more of the main event.”
— B, 07:19
On sports and business reality:

“If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.”
— A, 12:14
On David Ellison’s creative reputation:

“David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... This is not. This is including the Paramount franchises that he has been involved in.”
— A, 19:05
On the box office stakes for 2026:

“Are you one of the people who thinks that [Odyssey] could be the number one movie of the year?”
— B, 26:27
“No, I'm not... But more likely it gets to 1.1, 1.2 [billion]. Huge hit, everyone wins. But it's not going to be the biggest movie of the year. We've got a Spider man movie. We've got Avengers Doomsday, which, even if it sucks, is going to get to 1.5, 1.7, right?”
— A, 26:30
On superhero franchise fatigue:

“I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it... when Avengers Doomsday comes out.”
— B, 27:05

Important Segment Timestamps

[03:03] - Looming Strike: Guilds, leadership, AI as central issue.
[09:06] - NFL Rights, streamer impact, sports budgets vs. content.
[18:16] - David Ellison’s taste and Paramount future.
[22:52] - Box office shake-up, Universal vs. Disney, 2026 predictions.
[28:30] - YouTube and new disruptors, Saudi investment, CBS News’ new direction.

Tone & Style

The episode is analytical and shrewd, with dry humor and “inside baseball” industry talk. Both hosts blend skepticism with practical business sense, making predictions but often poking fun at Hollywood’s groupthink and overreliance on legacy models.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This is a robust, fast-moving breakdown of Hollywood’s real 2026 anxieties. Belloni and Shaw skip obvious headlines to reveal under-reported concerns and strategic questions: Will tech and labor unrest disrupt business-as-usual again? Are legacy studio giants doomed by their own bloat, or do they still have time to adapt? Is anyone brave (or foolish) enough to bet against the NFL? And is the next great creative disruptor a Silicon Valley codebase…or just a new billionaire with questionable taste?

Summary prepared using original dialogue and episode structure.

Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Overview

The episode is sharp, skeptical, and industry-savvy, aiming for insight into what’s next rather than rehearsing last year’s headlines.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will There Be Another Hollywood Strike? (03:03 – 08:55)

Context: New labor agreements are coming up; May 1 is a crucial date.
AI & Consolidation:
- AI concerns have only grown, becoming a dominant issue for guilds this round.
- Industry consolidation (e.g. David Ellison buying Paramount, Warner Bros potentially being sold) has both studios and unions on edge.
Guild Dynamics:
- WGA is expected to take the most aggressive stance—historically the pattern.
- DGA has Chris Nolan at the helm, which is significant:
  
  “You have the number one director, arguably, atop this guild. Maybe that means he's not as serious about driving a hard bargain. Or maybe he's gonna wanna use his leverage.” (A, 04:17)
- Actors’ (SAG-AFTRA) leadership seen as measured—focused on best deal for members rather than ideologically anti-AI.
Health & Benefits Crunch:
- Due to reduced production post-peak TV, many newer guild members aren’t working, putting stress on union health/pension plans.
- Studios may use this to push for a historic 5-year deal (rather than the usual 3), but Belloni doubts unions will agree:
  
  “Now the three year negotiating cycle is the primary point of leverage for these guilds. So I can't see them agreeing to a five year cycle.” (A, 06:08)
Leadership Change:
- New AMPTP negotiator Greg Hessinger replaces Carol Lombardini, introducing uncertainty to this year’s labor strategy.

2. The Next Sports Rights Gold Rush: NFL & Streaming (09:06 – 16:49)

NFL’s Leverage:
- The NFL’s rights deal is up for early renegotiation; Roger Goodell wants to accelerate talks following the NBA’s massive rights increase.
Who Needs Whom?
- Fox built around sports/news—can’t afford to lose the NFL.
- CBS/Paramount seen as vulnerable, but the NFL would suffer reach loss if over-reliant on streamers, per Belloni:
  
  “If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.” (A, 12:14)
Enter the Tech Giants:
- Netflix and Amazon are sniffing around; Netflix likely to pursue a global/international NFL package.
- Lukas: “Still feels a little early for Netflix to jump in” (B, 13:13)
- Belloni: “Oh, I think they're going to go after this international package... makes perfect sense for Netflix.” (A, 13:16)
Impact on Content Budgets:
- “This will lead between the NBA and the NFL, it will lead to a pullback in content spend on entertainment content. It just kind of has to.” (A, 14:21)
- NBCUniversal for example is already reducing original content to finance their new NBA deal.
No Escape:
- No major media company can realistically walk away from the NFL, but the cost will shift resources away from traditional film/TV programming.

3. Burning Question: Does David Ellison Have Taste? (18:16 – 22:51)

Ellison's Track Record:
- Controls Paramount and has Skydance veterans running film/streaming.
- Striking stat:
  
  “David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... overall Rotten Tomatoes score of all his films: 56%.” (A, 19:05)
  - Metacritic score: 53.8 (below studio average)
  - Audience scores higher: 66% RT, Metacritic 7.3 (reflecting mass appeal)
- 2025 Skydance movies: “The Gorge” (hit on AppleTV), “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning", “Fountain of Youth”, “The Old Guard 2” (27% RT), “The Family Plan 2” (38% RT). Most did not fare well with critics.
Future Strategy:
- Announced intent to release 15 movies per year, most positioned as tentpoles.
- Belloni skeptical that the taste/quality will be there:
  
  “Are they going to make a lot of ghosted? Are they going to make Spy Kids Armageddon?” (A, 21:02)
- Skydance's animation, TV, and gaming arms have been uneven commercially/artistically (even Netflix wants out of Skydance Animation).
Open Question:
- Does Ellison have what it takes to run a major media company, or has he simply co-financed successful Paramount franchises?
- Lukas: “What is in the Skydance track record tells you that he's ready to run a really big media company?” (B, 21:25)

4. Box Office: Can Anyone Beat Disney—and Will ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Flop? (22:52 – 28:29)

Disney’s Reign:
- Disney’s led the global box office almost every year (excluding Covid) for a decade.
2026 Competition:
- Disney slate: “Toy Story 5”, live action “Moana”, “Avengers: Doomsday”, “Devil Wears Prada 2”, “Mandalorian”, new animated films.
- Universal: new “Mario”, “Minions”, a Christopher Nolan Odyssey epic, Spielberg tentpole, new “Spider-Man.”
Box Office Projections:
- Domestic box office in 2025 was < $9B, aiming for $10B+ in 2026, possibly hitting pre-pandemic levels.
Universal’s Chances:
- Depends on Nolan’s “Odyssey”:
  
  “Could be a $700 million movie or it could be $2 billion.” (A, 25:14)
  - A $700M floor is predicted—if it’s truly an event film.
Superhero Fatigue:
- Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday” expected to do big numbers regardless, but skepticism remains:
  
  “I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it, this year when Avengers Doomsday comes out.” (B, 27:05)
Legacy Sequels:
- “Devil Wears Prada 2” seen as a cash grab; interest is more curiosity than enthusiasm.

5. YouTube, Tech, and the Saudis—Next Disruptors? (28:30 – 30:23)

YouTube’s Ambitions:
- Will expand beyond acquiring Oscar streaming rights, possibly seeking more NFL games or broadcast events.
Will Hollywood Try Direct-to-YouTube Shows?
- Lukas wonders who will be the first to take a swing at making premium content directly for YouTube (not YouTube financed), aiming for new ownership models and secondary licensing (to Netflix, Amazon, etc.).
Saudi Investment:
- Belloni predicts an even more aggressive Saudi footprint in global content markets.
CBS News’ Shift:
- CBS trying to capture Fox News’ audience by moving rightward strategically (not editorially debated in this episode).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

On labor negotiations and AI anxiety:

“AI is the kind of the existential boogeyman this time. Last time it was like the hot new hot topic, but ultimately kind of a side show. This time I feel like it'll be more of the main event.”
— B, 07:19
On sports and business reality:

“If all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders... not good for the NFL either.”
— A, 12:14
On David Ellison’s creative reputation:

“David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies... This is not. This is including the Paramount franchises that he has been involved in.”
— A, 19:05
On the box office stakes for 2026:

“Are you one of the people who thinks that [Odyssey] could be the number one movie of the year?”
— B, 26:27
“No, I'm not... But more likely it gets to 1.1, 1.2 [billion]. Huge hit, everyone wins. But it's not going to be the biggest movie of the year. We've got a Spider man movie. We've got Avengers Doomsday, which, even if it sucks, is going to get to 1.5, 1.7, right?”
— A, 26:30
On superhero franchise fatigue:

“I think this will be the end of Marvel as we know it... when Avengers Doomsday comes out.”
— B, 27:05

Important Segment Timestamps

[03:03] - Looming Strike: Guilds, leadership, AI as central issue.
[09:06] - NFL Rights, streamer impact, sports budgets vs. content.
[18:16] - David Ellison’s taste and Paramount future.
[22:52] - Box office shake-up, Universal vs. Disney, 2026 predictions.
[28:30] - YouTube and new disruptors, Saudi investment, CBS News’ new direction.

Tone & Style

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

Summary prepared using original dialogue and episode structure.

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2026 Burning Questions: Another Strike? Is 'Avengers: Doomsday' Doomed? And David Ellison’s Movie Taste.

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Summary

Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Overview

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will There Be Another Hollywood Strike? (03:03 – 08:55)

2. The Next Sports Rights Gold Rush: NFL & Streaming (09:06 – 16:49)

3. Burning Question: Does David Ellison Have Taste? (18:16 – 22:51)

4. Box Office: Can Anyone Beat Disney—and Will ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Flop? (22:52 – 28:29)

5. YouTube, Tech, and the Saudis—Next Disruptors? (28:30 – 30:23)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

Important Segment Timestamps

Tone & Style

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Overview

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Will There Be Another Hollywood Strike? (03:03 – 08:55)

2. The Next Sports Rights Gold Rush: NFL & Streaming (09:06 – 16:49)

3. Burning Question: Does David Ellison Have Taste? (18:16 – 22:51)

4. Box Office: Can Anyone Beat Disney—and Will ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Flop? (22:52 – 28:29)

5. YouTube, Tech, and the Saudis—Next Disruptors? (28:30 – 30:23)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

Important Segment Timestamps

Tone & Style

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode