Podcast Summary: "Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG-AFTRA Lead Negotiator"

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matthew Belloni (with contributors Craig Horlebeck, Lucas)
Guest: Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, National Executive Director and Lead Negotiator, SAG-AFTRA
Date: January 15, 2026
Publisher: The Ringer

Episode Overview

In this episode, Matthew Belloni hosts Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG-AFTRA’s lead negotiator, for a deep dive into the upcoming actor-studio contract negotiations and the existential challenges posed by AI in Hollywood. They discuss the union’s AI strategy, recent wins, ongoing threats, the Warner Bros. sale saga, and the broader philosophical questions about technology, labor, and creativity. The conversation is lively and direct, filled with clear talk, key industry insights, and memorable anecdotes.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage for Upcoming Negotiations

• Upcoming Contract Renewals: All three main creative guilds (actors, writers, directors) are facing expiring contracts in 2026, prompting tension and speculation in the industry.
• Negotiation Schedule: SAG-AFTRA is going first, starting February 9 for talks, with a deal deadline of June 30.
  "Nobody wants that [a strike], so I think a lot of people are looking to see the tea leaves on this negotiation." —Craig Horlebeck [01:25]

2. AI: The Central Battlefront

What Was Won in the Last Deal?

• AI Guidelines: The last SAG-AFTRA agreement introduced 16 pages of detailed rules governing AI use with performers, including requirements for consent and compensation. "16 pages of detailed rules about how AI can and cannot be used in our industry as it relates to performers." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [03:35]
• Strategic Compromise: The union didn’t try to outright ban AI, acknowledging that blocking technology is futile. Instead, they focused on channeling its adoption ethically and ensuring members’ participation and protection. "There has never been a moment where any force can completely stop the advance of technology... If we fight really hard, we can channel the way it's implemented..." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [04:07]

What Has the AI Deal Actually Changed?

• Responsible Implementation: Major studios have slowed AI rollout, with regular confidential check-ins with SAG-AFTRA allowing proactive monitoring.
• Digital Replication: Unions now have rules preventing the use of performers' digital likenesses without consent or compensation. "It has stopped the idea of using people's replicated image without compensating them or getting their permission." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [07:04]
• Synthetic Performances: Studios must notify the union if they use or create a fully synthetic AI performer, but no notices have yet been made. "As of today, not one company has given us notice of [creating a synthetic performance]." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [08:14]

Existential and Societal Stakes

• Humans vs. Algorithms: Maintaining a clear distinction between human performers and AI is a core principle for the union, with new New York state laws now mandating disclosure when AI is used in ads. "It is really important that we continue to have a clear distinction between humanity and AI algorithms." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [10:09]

3. Where SAG-AFTRA Sees the AI Fight Going

Next Negotiation Goals

• Tighter Rules on Synthetic Performers: SAG-AFTRA wants economic parity—if a company uses an AI-generated performance, it must pay as if hiring a human. "If synthetics cost the same thing that a human costs, they're going to choose a human every time." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [12:57]
• Leveling the Economic Playing Field: Discouraging companies from choosing AI simply on cost grounds, to preserve jobs and creative quality.

Studios’ Approaches and Corporate AI Moves

• Disney & OpenAI: Disney's partnership surprised the union but is viewed as an attempt to be ahead of legal challenges and maintain control of their assets. "I thought they might wait a little longer before they did." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [14:58]
• Ongoing Engagement: OpenAI is seen as relatively responsive, especially after union feedback led to enhanced protections in their cameo feature. "I think the reason the Cameo feature is as robust as it is... has a lot to do with the feedback we've given them." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [15:39]

Surveillance of AI Abuses

• Fake and Non-consensual Content: Elon Musk’s Grok AI being used for deepfake pornography has amplified calls for legal and civil action. "Grok and its parent companies should be very concerned... there may be some culpability there." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [18:42]

4. The Threat of Another Strike

• Early Negotiations as Peace Gesture: SAG-AFTRA wants low-drama talks and started early to allow maximum time. "We are doing our part to help make this a low drama, successful negotiation process." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [20:02]
• Strike Is Not Off the Table: The union will not accept an unfair deal, even if the industry is still recovering from past disruptions.

5. Industry Power Shifts and the Warner Bros. Sale

• Monitoring Warner Bros. Sale: SAG-AFTRA is taking a cautious, analytical approach before choosing sides among buyers (Netflix, Paramount), prioritizing members’ interests, and the vitality of theatrical exhibition. "We want the Warner Brothers studio to be as robust as possible, to produce as much content as possible, to protect theatrical exhibition as much as possible." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [24:07]
• Concerns About Streaming Takeover: Union supports movies remaining in theaters—not just because of tradition, but the value members see in theatrical release. "Our members care deeply about making sure that if you deliver a performance that should be seen on the big screen... you should have the chance to see it the way it was meant to be seen." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [25:36]

6. Defense vs. Offense in AI

• Proactive vs. Defensive: SAG-AFTRA insists their approach is forward-thinking, not defensive, noting the union had stronger plans in place on AI than the studios themselves. "To me, what I see is being proactive and saying, 'here's what we want to see as the rules of the road in this area.'" —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [27:11]
• Integration vs. Replacement: Belief that AI will mostly augment, not replace, human talent, especially for “premium” content.

7. The Search for the "Win"

• What Does a Win Look Like?
  • Sustainable, fair compensation—especially during hiatus or for streaming series.
  • Holding the line on creative and job protections in the age of AI.
  • Maintaining domestic production and supporting tax credits for U.S.-based jobs. "We want there to be a lot of jobs. We want those jobs to be jobs that should be here in the US." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [32:35]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Sometimes when the nanny [Fran Drescher] screams at you, it's because you've done something wrong." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [03:29]
• "If synthetics cost the same as a human, they're going to choose a human every time." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [12:57]
• "Ted [Sarandos] is very good to his word. When you ask if I believe that he means what he says, yes. Do I believe that is what he personally wants? No." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [24:41]
• "I think if you believe in theatrical exhibition, if you believe there is something special about seeing a movie in a group with other people in a theater, which I do, then you want it to be vital." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [25:13]

Important Timestamps

• [02:37] — Recap of last negotiation wins (AI rules)
• [04:07] — Union’s reasoning for not trying to stop AI outright
• [07:04] — Digital replication: what’s protected and why
• [10:09] — Societal need to distinguish humans from algorithms
• [12:57] — Proposed solution: economic parity for AI and humans
• [14:58] — Reaction to Disney/OpenAI deal
• [18:42] — Deepfake and Grok controversy
• [20:02] — Negotiation strategy: early talks, strike possibility
• [24:07] — SAG-AFTRA’s Warner Bros. sale criteria
• [27:11] — “Playing offense” on AI regulation
• [31:31] — What counts as a “win” for SAG-AFTRA
• [32:35] — Domestic jobs, the "Pedro Pascal rule", and production incentives

Tone and Style

Belloni steers a direct but inquisitive conversation, balanced between industry wonkiness and big-picture soul-searching. Crabtree-Ireland is measured, affable, sometimes wry, but always focused on serious stakes for actors and the wider creative workforce.

For Listeners: Key Takeaways

• AI is at the heart of Hollywood’s next big labor showdown; unions are working to set the terms before profit motives override creative and ethical standards.
• SAG-AFTRA wants both robust job protection and to ensure actors' continued creative primacy—without pretending technology can be stopped.
• The Warner Bros. sale could reshape the landscape, with unions watching for impacts on both jobs and theatrical tradition.
• Whatever the outcome, the next several months will test whether Hollywood can adapt ethically to its own cutting edge.