Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG-AFTRA Lead Negotiator

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG-AFTRA Lead Negotiator"

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matthew Belloni (with contributors Craig Horlebeck, Lucas)
Guest: Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, National Executive Director and Lead Negotiator, SAG-AFTRA
Date: January 15, 2026
Publisher: The Ringer

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Matthew Belloni hosts Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG-AFTRA’s lead negotiator, for a deep dive into the upcoming actor-studio contract negotiations and the existential challenges posed by AI in Hollywood. They discuss the union’s AI strategy, recent wins, ongoing threats, the Warner Bros. sale saga, and the broader philosophical questions about technology, labor, and creativity. The conversation is lively and direct, filled with clear talk, key industry insights, and memorable anecdotes.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage for Upcoming Negotiations

• Upcoming Contract Renewals: All three main creative guilds (actors, writers, directors) are facing expiring contracts in 2026, prompting tension and speculation in the industry.
• Negotiation Schedule: SAG-AFTRA is going first, starting February 9 for talks, with a deal deadline of June 30.
  "Nobody wants that [a strike], so I think a lot of people are looking to see the tea leaves on this negotiation." —Craig Horlebeck [01:25]

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2. AI: The Central Battlefront

What Was Won in the Last Deal?

• AI Guidelines: The last SAG-AFTRA agreement introduced 16 pages of detailed rules governing AI use with performers, including requirements for consent and compensation. "16 pages of detailed rules about how AI can and cannot be used in our industry as it relates to performers." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [03:35]
• Strategic Compromise: The union didn’t try to outright ban AI, acknowledging that blocking technology is futile. Instead, they focused on channeling its adoption ethically and ensuring members’ participation and protection. "There has never been a moment where any force can completely stop the advance of technology... If we fight really hard, we can channel the way it's implemented..." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [04:07]

What Has the AI Deal Actually Changed?

• Responsible Implementation: Major studios have slowed AI rollout, with regular confidential check-ins with SAG-AFTRA allowing proactive monitoring.
• Digital Replication: Unions now have rules preventing the use of performers' digital likenesses without consent or compensation. "It has stopped the idea of using people's replicated image without compensating them or getting their permission." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [07:04]
• Synthetic Performances: Studios must notify the union if they use or create a fully synthetic AI performer, but no notices have yet been made. "As of today, not one company has given us notice of [creating a synthetic performance]." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [08:14]

Existential and Societal Stakes

• Humans vs. Algorithms: Maintaining a clear distinction between human performers and AI is a core principle for the union, with new New York state laws now mandating disclosure when AI is used in ads. "It is really important that we continue to have a clear distinction between humanity and AI algorithms." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [10:09]

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3. Where SAG-AFTRA Sees the AI Fight Going

Next Negotiation Goals

• Tighter Rules on Synthetic Performers: SAG-AFTRA wants economic parity—if a company uses an AI-generated performance, it must pay as if hiring a human. "If synthetics cost the same thing that a human costs, they're going to choose a human every time." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [12:57]
• Leveling the Economic Playing Field: Discouraging companies from choosing AI simply on cost grounds, to preserve jobs and creative quality.

Studios’ Approaches and Corporate AI Moves

• Disney & OpenAI: Disney's partnership surprised the union but is viewed as an attempt to be ahead of legal challenges and maintain control of their assets. "I thought they might wait a little longer before they did." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [14:58]
• Ongoing Engagement: OpenAI is seen as relatively responsive, especially after union feedback led to enhanced protections in their cameo feature. "I think the reason the Cameo feature is as robust as it is... has a lot to do with the feedback we've given them." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [15:39]

Surveillance of AI Abuses

• Fake and Non-consensual Content: Elon Musk’s Grok AI being used for deepfake pornography has amplified calls for legal and civil action. "Grok and its parent companies should be very concerned... there may be some culpability there." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [18:42]

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4. The Threat of Another Strike

• Early Negotiations as Peace Gesture: SAG-AFTRA wants low-drama talks and started early to allow maximum time. "We are doing our part to help make this a low drama, successful negotiation process." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [20:02]
• Strike Is Not Off the Table: The union will not accept an unfair deal, even if the industry is still recovering from past disruptions.

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5. Industry Power Shifts and the Warner Bros. Sale

• Monitoring Warner Bros. Sale: SAG-AFTRA is taking a cautious, analytical approach before choosing sides among buyers (Netflix, Paramount), prioritizing members’ interests, and the vitality of theatrical exhibition. "We want the Warner Brothers studio to be as robust as possible, to produce as much content as possible, to protect theatrical exhibition as much as possible." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [24:07]
• Concerns About Streaming Takeover: Union supports movies remaining in theaters—not just because of tradition, but the value members see in theatrical release. "Our members care deeply about making sure that if you deliver a performance that should be seen on the big screen... you should have the chance to see it the way it was meant to be seen." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [25:36]

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6. Defense vs. Offense in AI

• Proactive vs. Defensive: SAG-AFTRA insists their approach is forward-thinking, not defensive, noting the union had stronger plans in place on AI than the studios themselves. "To me, what I see is being proactive and saying, 'here's what we want to see as the rules of the road in this area.'" —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [27:11]
• Integration vs. Replacement: Belief that AI will mostly augment, not replace, human talent, especially for “premium” content.

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7. The Search for the "Win"

• What Does a Win Look Like?
  • Sustainable, fair compensation—especially during hiatus or for streaming series.
  • Holding the line on creative and job protections in the age of AI.
  • Maintaining domestic production and supporting tax credits for U.S.-based jobs. "We want there to be a lot of jobs. We want those jobs to be jobs that should be here in the US." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [32:35]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Sometimes when the nanny [Fran Drescher] screams at you, it's because you've done something wrong." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [03:29]
• "If synthetics cost the same as a human, they're going to choose a human every time." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [12:57]
• "Ted [Sarandos] is very good to his word. When you ask if I believe that he means what he says, yes. Do I believe that is what he personally wants? No." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [24:41]
• "I think if you believe in theatrical exhibition, if you believe there is something special about seeing a movie in a group with other people in a theater, which I do, then you want it to be vital." —Duncan Crabtree-Ireland [25:13]

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Important Timestamps

• [02:37] — Recap of last negotiation wins (AI rules)
• [04:07] — Union’s reasoning for not trying to stop AI outright
• [07:04] — Digital replication: what’s protected and why
• [10:09] — Societal need to distinguish humans from algorithms
• [12:57] — Proposed solution: economic parity for AI and humans
• [14:58] — Reaction to Disney/OpenAI deal
• [18:42] — Deepfake and Grok controversy
• [20:02] — Negotiation strategy: early talks, strike possibility
• [24:07] — SAG-AFTRA’s Warner Bros. sale criteria
• [27:11] — “Playing offense” on AI regulation
• [31:31] — What counts as a “win” for SAG-AFTRA
• [32:35] — Domestic jobs, the "Pedro Pascal rule", and production incentives

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Tone and Style

Belloni steers a direct but inquisitive conversation, balanced between industry wonkiness and big-picture soul-searching. Crabtree-Ireland is measured, affable, sometimes wry, but always focused on serious stakes for actors and the wider creative workforce.

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For Listeners: Key Takeaways

• AI is at the heart of Hollywood’s next big labor showdown; unions are working to set the terms before profit motives override creative and ethical standards.
• SAG-AFTRA wants both robust job protection and to ensure actors' continued creative primacy—without pretending technology can be stopped.
• The Warner Bros. sale could reshape the landscape, with unions watching for impacts on both jobs and theatrical tradition.
• Whatever the outcome, the next several months will test whether Hollywood can adapt ethically to its own cutting edge.

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Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

This episode of the Town is brought.

[Co-host/Announcer]

To you by Netflix.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Presenting Frankenstein. Nominated for five Golden Globe awards, including.

[Co-host/Announcer]

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[Craig Horlebeck]

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[Co-host/Announcer]

This episode is brought to you by Warner Bros. Pictures. Presenting Sinners, written and directed by Ryan Coogler and starring Michael B. Jordan. Hailed as the best picture of the year, the New York Times calls Sinners a big screen exultation, a passionate, effusive praise song about life and love, including the love of movies. And timeout says Ryan Coogler's bold vision makes Sinners a true event. An exuberant widescreen experience that stirs the soul, Sinners is awards eligible in all categories, including best Picture, best Director and Best Actor.

[Craig Horlebeck]

It is Thursday, January 15th.

[Co-host/Announcer]

It's going to be a big year.

[Craig Horlebeck]

On the Hollywood labor front. All three of the big above the line guilds, that's actors, directors, writers, they're.

[Co-host/Announcer]

All up for renewal of their three year contracts.

[Matt Bellany]

Of course, the last time these deals were up, SAG AFTRA and the Writers.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Guild went on strike the WGA for 148 days. The act was a little less and the entire entertainment business in the US.

[Co-host/Announcer]

Pretty much shut down. Nobody wants that.

[Craig Horlebeck]

So I think a lot of people are looking to see the tea leaves on this negotiation. Last week I was in Vegas at.

[Co-host/Announcer]

Ces, the electronics show, and I did.

[Craig Horlebeck]

A sit down with Duncan Crabtree Ireland.

[Co-host/Announcer]

He's the national executive director of SAG.

[Craig Horlebeck]

AFTRA and the lead negotiator for the actors. He's been on the show before.

[Matt Bellany]

We talked a lot about AI, but.

[Craig Horlebeck]

We also talked about what he wants to achieve in this negotiation. Some of the big issues that are coming to a head. It's coming up soon. The actors have decided to go first, starting February 9, before the other guilds and their deal deadline is June 30.

[Co-host/Announcer]

It was an interesting talk, so we.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Decided to turn it into an episode of the Town. So today it's the top negotiator for the actors on the upcoming negotiations, the state of AI disruption, the whole Tilly Norwood question, though I refuse to name her and what the actors actually want this time around.

[Matt Bellany]

From the ringer and Puck, I'm Matt.

[Co-host/Announcer]

Bellany and this is the town.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, so let's get into a little bit More specifics on this. Just briefly summarize what you achieved in your last negotiation with the studio companies and give us a little preview of how you're thinking about the next negotiation, which is going to start pretty soon.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Very soon. February 9th, in fact. Yeah, no, it's. So in the last negotiation, we came into it with a very specific set of objectives for AI for our members. And in our contract bargaining, we're not. That's focused on the needs of SAG AFTRA members and the performers and others that we represent, not society as a whole. Although I think it took on a bigger impact than even maybe I anticipated at first.

[Matt Bellany]

Fran helped.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Fran helped. Fran helped.

[Co-host/Announcer]

Yeah.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I mean, I think Fran as a communicator is unparalleled. And the case she made in our first press conference when we initiated the strike, to the general public, I mean, that resonated not just with actors around the world, but with everyone around the world. I mean, every place I've traveled since.

[Matt Bellany]

People talk to me, people are like, oh, my God, the nanny is screaming at me.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah, and for good reason. Sometimes when the nanny screams at you, it's because you've done something wrong. And it's.

[Matt Bellany]

So what did you guys get in that?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

So what we got. The first thing that we got that was really, really important, I think, is a 16 pages of detailed rules about how AI can and cannot be used in our industry as it relates to performers.

[Matt Bellany]

Some fans of that out there. And let's be clear, you are not anti AI. There's a very. You know, there's a perception that the guilds are trying to prevent the development of AI in general. You are not that, but you are trying to make sure that you guys are a part of the process and that there are guardrails and rules for this.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Right. Look, I mean, I have to acknowledge there is a port of our membership who would like us to just try to block AI. And so you can have that debate. But here's the reality, and this is what drove our decision making here, is there has never been a moment in time where any force can completely stop the advance of technology that just doesn't work. And unions or others who've tried it have failed. And not only have they failed, but they've given up their chance to direct and channel that technology in the process. So. So we made a very conscious, strategic decision, which was, we aren't going to be able to stop AI from happening. But if we fight really hard and we use all of our power of persuasion and leverage, we can Channel the way that it's implemented in a way that is better and more supportive of human creativity and our members. And that's what we have to do.

[Matt Bellany]

So this 16 point rule, it hasn't stopped the studios from developing AI models and from leaning in there. But what do you think from your perspective? It has stopped the studios from doing?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, the first thing is I think it slowed down the implementation of AI by the major studios and really even major independent producers in our industry significantly. And I think that's good. And the reason why that's good is they are taking time to think about ethical questions about their responsibility in this process. And I know this because part of what we bargained for was the right to meet with all of these companies every six months to get under an NDA in confidentiality. So any of them who are listening, don't worry, I'm not about to spill the beans. But we get confidential updates on their current activities and their plans with respect to the deployment of AI. And I think that has been far more helpful than people realize in helping calibrate how these companies engage with AI, the pace of it and the way in which that rolls out. But also, we knew digital replication as one specific facet of AI, which was already happening. It was happening even before 2023. You know, think Carrie Fisher, Paul Walker, you know, a bunch of Star wars series that were using it for done.

[Matt Bellany]

With the participation of their estate.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yes. In those cases, every case that we have that we are aware of, done with the consent of either the performer or their estate and with compensation that was negotiated that we consider adequate for those uses. But we also knew this was going to explain and that we couldn't just count on people's good intentions to make sure that kept happening. So our first priority was getting those digital replication rules in place. And we did that. And I think it has. One of the things that it has stopped is it has stopped the idea of using people's replicated image without compensating them or getting their permission to do so. It has really, I think, channeled the direction of replication, at least for now, more into fixing problems or addressing small adjustments or dealing with scheduling conflicts as opposed to a wholesale way of doing business.

[Matt Bellany]

And you're okay with that? If X actor is doing a show and can't go back to Malta to finish a reshoot, you're okay with a digital replica?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah, we agreed to that. And I think when you look at it in the big picture. Right. That actually is, number one supportive of the performer. Right. It's letting them continue to, to participate in that project in that role, and it's helping make sure that the rest of the cast and the rest of the crew get to do their jobs. So in the big picture, that is supportive of the human participation in that project. And that's why we're okay with that. Alongside the other sort of minor adjustments, cosmetic changes, fixing audio problems, things like that, that have been approved in that contract. The rest of it, in terms of digital replication is really subject to negotiation. And we've tried to put our members in a position, a strong bargaining position to negotiate over what they're willing to do and what they're not willing to do. And some members don't want to be digitally replicated and that's fine. And some are okay with it with boundaries set, and that's fine. And we help them enforce those. The other thing that was really important that we dealt with is the question of synthetic performances. I hate to.

[Matt Bellany]

Don't say it. Don't say the name. Are you going to say I'm not giving her any more press?

[Co-host/Announcer]

Right.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

A certain synthetic figure that's out there has triggered, and rightfully it's triggered a lot of reaction. And I think we have provisions in that contract that address that. Specifically, we have a provision that says that the companies have to give us notice if they ever create any performance using a synthetic figure like that. And I can tell you that as of today, not one company has given us notice of doing that.

[Matt Bellany]

It's funny that you say that because I was about talking, talking to a AI oriented visual effects person yesterday and they were saying that they're in their meetings with the studios. Anytime you're in a meeting and you met and AI comes up in any context, five more people join the meeting.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Good.

[Matt Bellany]

Because they have to, they have to bring them in. One's a lawyer, one's business development, one's, you know, it's like they are terrified of running afoul of this in any way and good.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

And they, and they should be.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Right. But.

[Matt Bellany]

But doesn't mean they're not doing it.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

No, no. And that's okay. But, you know, doing it right and doing it in compliance with what they've committed to is what we expect and what we hold them to. But, you know, I think the other, the other point that goes here, and you know, our new president, Sean Astin made this point alongside me in a letter we sent to our members and we've talked a lot about it, is it is really important to maintain the distinction between humans and AI algorithmic models, okay? They are not the same thing. And one of the problems with the person who shall remain nameless, the non person who shall remain nameless, is that they're not, you know, that's not a person. It's trying to make people feel like this is a human being when that isn't a human being. That is an algorithmic outcome.

[Matt Bellany]

No, neither is Yoda.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, Jim Henson, you know, I know.

[Matt Bellany]

But you get what I'm saying. The consumer doesn't necessarily care. You care a lot.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

The consumer should care, though.

[Matt Bellany]

They should, maybe, but they don't.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

And not because they care about the character, Although that might be one reason why. But they should care because this is a broader problem for our society than just what we're concerned about for our members. And, you know, if you. If you listen to some of the academics who work in the AI field who aren't talking about performance or even the entertainment industry, they're talking about AI in general. It is really important that we continue to have a clear distinction between humanity and AI algorithms, because the more we anthropomorphize AI, the more we treat it like it's human when it does not act like a human. It doesn't think like a human. It doesn't have morals and ethics and responsibility like humans do. That's where a lot of the worst outcomes from AI are happening. Why do you think, you know, the kinds of problems that we're seeing with people in their relationship with chatbots are that way? It's because the chatbot is pretending to be a human and it's not acting like what it actually is. And that is creating a lot of problems. So I think it's really important in our industry and also in society for us to keep a firm line between humanity and AI algorithms. And I hope that we will find a way to continue to do that. We've done that through the consent requirements and rules regarding digital replication, and we're gonna continue to do that through making sure that synthetic performances are seen for what they are. A big example of that is what just happened in the state of New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul signed the nation's first law. Yes. Requiring that when a advertisement contains a AI generated, you know, persuasion piece, testimonial, whatever, that that is labeled as such. So you don't have computer generated algorithms endorsing products that you think now a human has endorsed, when in fact it's the product endorsing itself.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Right.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

You know, so. So things like that are so Important, and we're going to continue fighting for them.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, so that's the past. Heading into the new negotiation, what are your top priorities with respect to AI in 2023?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

We fought really hard for digital replication. We fought on this synthetic performance piece. Frankly, we didn't get as much as I would have liked us to have gotten on the synthetic performance piece. We got the notification requirement, we got a bargaining requirement, but there's not a lot of detailed rules there that I.

[Matt Bellany]

Would like to see. So you want more guardrails on digital replication?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

No, on synthetic performance.

[Matt Bellany]

On synthetic performers.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Excuse me. Yeah, and so what we've seen with that is, for example, in our music contracts, this is our contract with the Rager record labels, Also in our commercials contract with the major advertisers and advertising agencies, we've been able to secure provisions that say if they create something, like if a record label creates a track using entirely synthetic voices, not digital replicas of a human voice, but a generative AI created synthetic voice. If they do that, they're required under our contract to pay the same royalties for streaming that track that they would have paid to a human. What I want is to make sure that the economic incentives for these companies doesn't drive them.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, it's not.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

They're doing it because it's cheaper.

[Matt Bellany]

You want to make it less cheap.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

In my opinion, if synthetics cost the same thing that a human costs, they're going to choose a human every time. Why? Because the output that the human generates has creativity, soul, heart, spark to it. And if you ask anyone, you know, ask directors, ask. You know, I had a chance to chat with James Cameron about this. He doesn't want to direct AI algorithms. He wants to have that relationship with a human performer who can create something special.

[Matt Bellany]

His movies cost $400 million. Yes.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

So.

[Matt Bellany]

So is it. Can you please understand that your position could be seen as. As regressive?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I. Well, I can understand that someone might try to, you know, use that as a way of avoiding doing it.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Yeah.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

But it's really not regressive. And the reason it's not regressive is I'm not asking. You know, we're not pushing for them to have to pay more to use synthetic performances. I think if there's a level playing field, that's. That solves this problem, or at least it mitigates it and provides a huge.

[Matt Bellany]

Advantage for people who are not signatories.

[Craig Horlebeck]

To the SAG aftra.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, that depends on where public policy goes in this area, though. Doesn't It.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so you want larger law and.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Policy regimes to reflect what the guilds want.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I think so. And I also think that the out that what human talent creates will be a superior product. And I think we can already see this. Some of the music streaming services are awash and AI, you know, it's what lot of people call it AI generated slop. Right. Because it's just repetitive. There's nothing special about it. It's just, you know, it's just like a million variations on the same thing.

[Matt Bellany]

You and I talked when Sora launched OpenAI.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Launched Sora.

[Matt Bellany]

I was pretty up in arms. It was, I mean, ridiculous. Copyright infringement out of the gate. They've walked that back. They are working with you guys on the Cameo feature so that your members are not, you know, manipulated in their, in their algorithms. Disney went ahead and did a big deal with OpenAI. Did that surprise you and what do you think about Disney jumping into bed with OpenAI?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, it surprised me in the sense that I wasn't. I thought that they might wait a little longer before they did. I figured one of the big content companies would be doing something like that in the future. I suspect that it's partially motivated by wanting to be ahead of rulings that will come out in the IP litigation.

[Matt Bellany]

And also it puts pressure on Google. They sent a cease and desist.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Same day. Yes. They want.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Which we fully support. I mean OpenAI for all of the issues there are with them has shown probably more concern about the issues we've raised with them than any of the other AI.

[Craig Horlebeck]

That's true.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah. Yeah. And I think if you.

[Matt Bellany]

Other than the launch of sora. But when they walked it back, even.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

With the launch of Sora, they did.

[Matt Bellany]

Tell you in advance.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

They did brief a little bit in advance. And we have an amazing committee, our AI Task force, which in conjunction with our National Innovation New Technology Committee, these are members of SAG AFTRA who work together with our staff. We've been looking at SORA and working with some access that OpenAI gave us to really give them some feedback and help them. I think that the reason the Cameo feature is as robust as it is in terms of individual protection has a lot to do with the feedback that we've given them. But yeah, I wish that all AI companies would start from that baseline and move in a better direction.

[Matt Bellany]

So it doesn't worry you that this is going to catch on and then the negotiation power is going to be stronger and eventually you guys will have to acquiesce to them using real voices of these characters and maybe even images.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I don't think we'll ever have to acquiesce to that. Our members are incredibly resilient and strong on this point. But I think I take the reverse sort of point from it, which is before the public announcement was made about the license deal, I received calls from both of the companies and the first thing out of the gate was we're not authorizing any licensing whatsoever of human images or human voices of any of your members or anyone else for that matter.

[Matt Bellany]

Even the Luke Skywalker is the animated Luke Skywalker?

[Craig Horlebeck]

That's correct, yeah.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

So I think that reflects them recognizing not only the strength of the concern that we have, but also its power out in the world in the marketplace, with public policy officials, with the public. And I think that is an encouraging sign.

[Co-host/Announcer]

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[Matt Bellany]

What are you doing about Grok? Grok is now using AI to undress people on X Twitter, including some of your members.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah. Well, so first of all, I should say this is not a new problem, right? Deepfake port has been a problem since the, since the technology of deep fakes started.

[Matt Bellany]

But Grok is on Twitter. Grok is in Tesla.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

It's a mainstream product, right? So when you have these sort of niche tools that certain people are using to do this, that's one thing that is the biggest concern I have about Grok enabling this is that it sort of sends a signal that this is acceptable in some way because a mainstream AI tool is allowing this to happen happen. Now there are, I think that Grok should, Grok and its parent companies should be very concerned about the fact that with the take it down act with other state laws against deepfake porn, that there may be some culpability there. And I also think, you know, this is going to continue perhaps, maybe from.

[Matt Bellany]

A SAG AFTRA lawsuit, perhaps, or from.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

A number of other sources. And let's not forget, you know, the kind of protection that the Communications Decency act has given some people. You know, I think there is a very strong case to be made that that does not in any way apply to AI algorithms or generative AI tools that are creating the output. That's not, you know, that's not a neutral host. That is a.

[Matt Bellany]

They are choosing to allow that.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Are choosing to allow that.

[Co-host/Announcer]

Yes.

[Matt Bellany]

I know it's hard for you to assess this and obviously you don't want to give anything in negotiation power, but man, if there's another strike at a time when this industry is reeling and hasn't fully recovered from the last one, that's got to play into your head a little bit, right?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, look, we are doing our part to help make this a low drama, successful negotiation process. And when I say that, what I mean is we are starting on February 9th in 2023. We started on June 7th, if I'm remembering the date correctly. Okay, so that is months earlier. We want to give everyone all the time in the world that is needed to discuss the complex agreement that we have with many constituencies and a lot of concerns that need to be addressed.

[Matt Bellany]

And did you do that in part to get in front of the writers who are much more vociferous about their concerns?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

No, really, we did it because we think that we need, we want to allow enough time to get through the. I think it's fair to say our collective marketing is probably the most complex of the three above the line unions just because of the vast number of categories and different things that it covers. And so we wanted to allow plenty of time to do that. We recognize that there is a. The beginnings of a recovery in the industry and we want to help support that as much as possible. But I want to be crystal clear, we are not going to accept a deal that isn't fair to our members. The AMPTP knows that. We've told them that. They understand that. And, you know, there is no reason there should need to be a strike because these companies should come to the table in good faith, as we are, and I assume they will, and we will find the path forward. But I certainly am not ruling out a strike. A strike is a possibility, but with a start in February 9, with weeks and weeks of time for us to negotiate. There's no reason that we shouldn't be able to reach a fair deal.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, there's a. You have a. People like that. Did you bring these people?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, I mean, some of them I do know, but I will just, I mean, you know, our members want to work. Our members don't want to be on site.

[Matt Bellany]

Of course, nobody wants to be on.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

That is the goal for sure.

[Matt Bellany]

So Greg Hessinger, the new head of the amptp, first year in the job, first negotiation, first major negotiation. He used to work at sag.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

He did, yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

So how does that change the equation here?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

He also used to work at aftra, by the way. So I knew him when he was the executive director of Aftra and I worked for him when he was the executive director of sag. And then since that time he has been.

[Matt Bellany]

So he's just going to rubber stamp what you want, right?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, since that time, he was on the other side of our commercials negotiations multiple times. And no, he is definitely a formidable negotiating plan, partner and adversary.

[Matt Bellany]

But you guys talk.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

We talk. I've known him for over 20 years. I think he will have a different approach to negotiations than his predecessor. That's not a criticism, that's just a reality. I think that any new leader brings a new vibe. And so far the dealings we've had with him have been very productive. And I think one of the things that will benefit everybody is for all of us on all sides to stay focused on the key priorities and not let minor tangential issues derail the process. And I think that, that, that is something that we have the potential to accomplish.

[Matt Bellany]

So this negotiation is playing out against the sale of Warner Brothers, one of the major employers. You guys have sort of put out statements saying that you're kind of looking at this and monitoring the situation. Are you going to take a position on this sale and do you have a preference of which of the two buyers it is?

[Craig Horlebeck]

We.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

We might take a position on this sale? We haven't decided yet. The reason we haven't decided yet is we are doing a really deep dive analysis on what all of the potential pathways forward are.

[Matt Bellany]

It's not good. Well, there's no good scenario here.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

So one question is, you know, what is the viability of Warner Brothers or WBD going forward if they no one acquires them? Another question is, if that's not good, what are the pros and cons of each of these options? And I think for us, a knee jerk response or an immediate reaction to that isn't helpful. So that's why we're really taking that close. Look, what we want is to protect the interest of SAG AFTRA members first and foremost. And for us, that means we want the Warner Brothers studio to be as robust as possible, to produce as much content as possible, to protect theatrical exhibition as much as possible. We think that's a really good.

[Matt Bellany]

That's a component. You guys are pro theatrical exhibition.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Absolutely. We want theatrical motion pictures to be vital, to be successful, and to make a lot of money for these companies and also for our members.

[Matt Bellany]

Do you believe Ted Sarandos when he says that Netflix will maintain the windows on Warner Brothers movies?

[Lucas]

Sure.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I mean, I think you do.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't believe him.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Ted is very good to his word. When you ask if I believe that, he means what he says. Yes. Do I believe that is what he personally wants? No. So how that plays out in the longer term, I think, is the question.

[Matt Bellany]

In this sense, it's not that I don't believe him. I just think that he will do whatever he needs to do. He'll honor the windows for a couple of years. They will get some results that maybe are not what the rest of the industry might want out of them, and then they'll say, okay, the model evolves. We tried, and we're going to do two or three movies in theaters a year, and then everything else goes to Netflix.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Right? And I think that would be really unfortunate. I think if you believe in theatrical exhibition, if you believe that there is something special about seeing a movie in a group with other people in a theater, which I do, then you want it to be vital and to throw out.

[Matt Bellany]

And do you get the sense that your members really care about that, or do they just want to get paid? And if Netflix is going to make more movies, then Godspeed doesn't matter where they play.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, sure, our members do want to get paid. It's important that they get paid. It's important if you want to have professional, creative talent in this industry, that they are conscious, compensated fairly. But I also think our members care deeply about how their work is used. They care deeply about making sure that if you deliver a performance that should be seen on the big screen, it's not that you can't watch it on the small screen, but it's that you should have the chance to see it the way it was meant to be seen.

[Matt Bellany]

Tom Cruise loves movie theaters, and he also loves popcorn.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

And who doesn't? I mean, movie theaters and popcorn are wonderful, but, you know, I saw the Avatar movie on a big screen and I will watch it again, probably on a small screen, but it won't be the same.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Yeah.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

And so. And that's not just that movie. There's so many like that.

[Matt Bellany]

So when it comes to AI, don't you feel like you are always playing defense? Wouldn't it be nice to play offense on this issue? Like, I look at what's going on, for instance, in Bollywood, there's been some recent reporting about how the Bollywood filmmakers are approaching AI. They are much more willing to engage there. And the. I know that they're not as union friendly as this country is, but it feels like they're playing offense and that the US Guilds are playing defense. Do you agree there?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I mean, in all honesty, Matt, I don't really. I feel like when we went into 2023 with our proposals on AI, no offense to the companies, but they were completely unprepared to deal with AI. We were far more prepared than they were. That's one of the reasons why we come to places like, well, because you're.

[Matt Bellany]

Playing defense, you're looking at this and saying, this is going to screw us.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, I guess it depends how you define it. To me, what I see that is being proactive and saying, here's what we want to see as the rules of the road in this area. I don't see that as playing defense. I see that as looking down the road, seeing ahead of the curve and saying, here's the direction we want to go in. So to me, steering the car in the right direction is not a defensive move. That's a proactive move. And that's why we invest so much time, so much energy and resources in being places like CES and other places where we can get a little bit of a view around the curve, because that helps us figure out what we need to do so that we're not behind. And like, when I look at where we are now, I look back on our 2023 negotiation. I think we made the right decisions about how to prioritize. And that was really informed by all this really hard work we've been doing for years in the AI space.

[Matt Bellany]

It's funny because when I talk to people about this issue and I ask, do you think that the first great piece of AI generated content will come from the traditional system or from outside the system? The sort of Pixar of AI people said, there is not a person I've talked to who has said that this will come from inside the system. That the revolution in AI generated content that is consumer friendly and becomes Popular will come from outside the system. Do you agree with that and do you think that is worrisome for the existence of your union and your members?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I mean, sure, the impact of AI is definitely worthy of concern. And I think there's a, you know, they say there's like a certain level of fear that is healthy and then there's a certain level of fear that's paralyzing. And we want to have the healthy level of fear and concern, not the paralyzing level. I think that when you say the first AI feature, if you mean the first feature that is entirely 100% made of AI, yeah, that's probably a possibility.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, there's this movie that's supposedly going to can or they're going to try to get it into Cannes. It's animated, but it is backed by OpenAI. I think it's called critters and it's backed by OpenAI. And they believe that it will be something that mainstream audiences will respond to. Obviously we haven't seen it yet and they are talking about using human voices or at least the reporting I've seen. We'll see if that ends up happening.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Right.

[Matt Bellany]

It'll be interesting to see which human voices they get to be in an AI generated movie. But these are not going away.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Right. And I, and I think that that is a particular example. I think is, is interesting because from an actor point of view, and I'm not talking about now from an animator or graphic artist point of view, you.

[Matt Bellany]

Are not responsible for the visual effects and animation industry.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Right. From an actor point of view, there's little difference there from the more modern, non hand drawn but computer assisted animation process from an actor's point of view. Right. Especially if they're going to use human voices. And considering if you look at the casting of most major animated features for voices, you see why they will probably continue to use human voices for the foreseeable future, because that's part of the marketing of animated projects is who, whose voice is used in the cast of animated voices. And why is that? Because those artists have a connection with the public and the public connects with them in a way they won't connect with an AI algorithm. So I really think that what is most likely to happen is that AI tools will be integrated into the production workflow in a way where you won't probably have a lot of projects that are 100% AI. What you will have is a growing level of the use of AI tools to make production more efficient from the management perspective, cost less and then we'll see what happens if that results in an increase in the volume of production. I certainly hope so, but I guess I do question whether 100% AI productions are something that will be more of the anomaly and less of the main thing. So, yeah, even in the longer term, I do think so.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, last question.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Looking at your face, I see that you may not.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't agree with that. I think there will be. But I do think that there will be a dichotomy between. Between premium and, not to use the S word, slop. And that will get closer and closer, but I don't think they'll ever be quite the same. Maybe they will, but we'll see. Last question, and I will press you for specifics on this. What is considered a win for you in this negotiation?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I guess what I would say is the kinds of things that you can always expect a union like us to be focused on are making sure that our members are compensated in a way that's sustainable. You know, this was one of those.

[Matt Bellany]

Are the generalities.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Yeah, what's the. I'm not going to give you numbers, please. Are you kidding me? Do you think it's my first day as a negotiator. I'm not going to.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Just like.

[Matt Bellany]

They'Re clapping for me. They're clapping for me. They want to hear it.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, they might want to hear it, but. But the ones of them who. Who want actors to do well are clapping for me because I'm not going to. I mean, obviously I can't reveal that. What I would say is, you know, it does have to be sustainable. We had a lot of conversations with the companies about this, so I think they know what that means. We made a lot of progress that in 23. We didn't. We're not all the way there yet. It's still really hard for people working in streaming series, for example, to make it through the hiatus periods. And even with improved rules on exclusivity and things like that, and some improvements in the health insurance situation, for that there's more to be done.

[Matt Bellany]

Do we have a Pedro Pascal rule that he's not allowed to have more than five jobs in a year?

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

You know, there are probably some of my members who would support that, but that is not where we're going to go with this. But I think that the point is well taken. Like, we want there to be more jobs. So it's all about striking the right balance. We want there to be a lot of jobs. We want those jobs to be jobs that should be here in the US We've got a lot of members who a lot of our members are privileged enough to travel with work, but a lot of them work when the work is here. And we really want to make sure that that balance is correct. And I think it's a little off kilter right now. So there's a lot of important things that will be.

[Matt Bellany]

Are you supporting a lot of these initiatives to keep productions in California, in the U.S. well, yeah.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Well, I mean, first of all, we're strongly supporting the idea of a federal incentive.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that happened. I heard, I heard some rumblings that that might get reintroduced in the new year.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

It might. I mean, we certainly hope so. And you know, the President Trump, know what that is?

[Craig Horlebeck]

Does he care?

[Matt Bellany]

Like, he's just like, make Hollywood great again. But like, I don't think he, I don't know. I'm skeptical there.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

He is pretty savvy about the industry.

[Matt Bellany]

He obviously member of SAG Aftra.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

He has been a member of SAG Aftra in the past and he not.

[Matt Bellany]

Currently on his dues.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I don't think he receives a, you know, a pension from our pension fund.

[Matt Bellany]

He votes for himself in the Actor Awards every year, even though he's not eligible.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

I'm not allowed to speculate on the voting for the Actor Awards, although I am allowed to say It'll be on March 1st on Netflix, so hopefully everyone will watch them. But, you know, yeah, I think there is a, let's put it this way, there is a greater chance that that could happen now than there has been in the time that I've worked at SAG aftra, which is 25 years, and it would make a huge, huge difference to our industry. So I really hope that that does come to fruition. And we're doing everything we can, along with a whole bunch of others. So not just us pushing for that and also at the state level, of course, not only in California, but in a number of places around the country who recognize that this industry really delivers a lot of economic value to those states from the multiplier effect of tax incentives, all the small businesses that are part of this. I know that actors tend to be the face of these productions, but there is a vast number of small businesses, tech businesses and all kinds of businesses that depend on these productions. And it can make a huge difference in terms of jobs in the economy. So, so that's a case we're making all the time. And, you know, as we've seen in California, New York, other places where they listen to that argument and act on it. The benefits abound.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, well, first priority is the Pedro Pascal rule in these negotiations.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

We will. When next I see him, I'll make sure to attribute it to you.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Yes, please. We are back with the call sheet. Craig, are you following the latest updates in the Warner brothers saga?

[Lucas]

Yes, Lucas provided us with a nice.

[Duncan Crabtree-Ireland]

Update a little bit ago.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Yes. He reported a couple days ago that Netflix was preparing or posturing to change their deal. They already have a signed agreement with Warner Discovery to buy the studio and streaming unit. And they are potentially going to change their deal from having a component of $4.50 worth of stock for their bid per share to make it all cash. And that would match what the Paramount side is saying because one of the big screaming moments from David Ellison is they're saying, well, we have an all cash offer for the entire company and Netflix is requiring you to go on this roller coaster ride by offering you shareholders a partially stock driven deal. That's especially meaningful since the Netflix stock has been down around 25, 30% since October.

[Lucas]

Why do you think they're doing this? Like, why is Netflix altering its offer against itself, essentially?

[Craig Horlebeck]

Well, that's a good question because you would think they have a deal. Why are they negotiating against themselves? And I think what's going on is they see how aggressive the Paramount people are being and they're not going away as I predicted. And they say, okay, well, if there's going to be a problem, let's leak it out there that we're willing to correct this problem. So any of you shareholders out there who may be thinking of bailing on us and going over to the Paramount side, let's make sure that, you know, we're willing to fix that defect in our deal. Who knows whether they'll actually do it, but I think they like that people know that they are willing to do it. I mean, both sides were in Europe this week, week with the European Commission trying to lobby about the regulatory issues. Apparently, according to some reporting from Semaphore, the regulatory commission there was a little bit more skeptical of Netflix for obvious reasons, the market power they might have. But from one person I talked to, it seems like these are surmountable issues. So the whole plan for Paramount is to set everything up with what they believe is a better deal and regulatory path to getting this thing approved and then show up at the shareholder meeting and make their pitch and saying, what are you guys doing with Netflix? We have the better deal come over.

[Lucas]

To us because now this is all cash versus all cash. Except Paramount wants to buy the entire thing, including all the cable assets. And Netflix is saying all cash just for studios and streamers.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Yes, yes. And they're not, they haven't officially made that offer. They're just potentially going to do that. My prediction though, stands. I know I'm in the minority here and I keep meeting with people around town who are convinced that Netflix is going to do whatever it takes to get this deal. I am not so sure. I think still that the Ellison side is so gung ho on this that they will ultimately raise their bid and they will ultimately make a more compelling pitch to these shareholders. Because at the end of the day, all these shareholders want is more money.

[Co-host/Announcer]

This is all a dance.

[Craig Horlebeck]

This is all kabuki to get Paramount to make a higher offer and then it'll be up to Netflix to match.

[Co-host/Announcer]

And I don't know that Netflix is going to match.

[Lucas]

So you think Netflix is just upping the ante to get Paramount to essentially match its offer and eventually, you know.

[Matt Bellany]

No, I don't think that this has.

[Craig Horlebeck]

All been for that. You don't go to this length. And Ted Sarandez has really put himself out there on this deal and they've, he's taken pictures with David Zaslav, he's talking about how he's committed to theaters. They've really disrupted themselves to do this and I don't think you do that just to make Paramount pay more. I think they really do want it. And you know, Sony just did a big pay one re up with Netflix for all the movies and they got a huge increase in the amount of money Netflix is paying for the Sony movies. And to me that just shows the value of these libraries and how much Netflix feels like it needs these first run movies and that's why they're going after Warner Brothers. So I just feel like Netflix really does want this. But are they willing to take their shareholders up to what will ultimately be a potentially more than a hundred million dollar deal? Don't know.

[Lucas]

You can see real signs that they're starting to crack in terms of what their mantra is and you can really see that the ship starting to change course. Like already the deal they did with Ben Affleck and Matt Damon's company Artist Equity about providing backend points to everybody on the crew. The Greta Gerwig theaters deal them talking about how they're going to keep Warner Brothers movies in theaters. Like, do you see this as like a larger sign that Netflix is going to like there are a lot of small examples of Ted Sarandos and Netflix changing their tune slowly.

[Craig Horlebeck]

Well, they've always been flexible and they've said that, you know, as a tech company, they are used to pivoting and they've done stuff that's worked and some stuff that hasn't worked. Remember Qwikster? You probably don't even remember Qwikster, but that was when they split the company in two to pursue streaming and have their DVD business separate. It was total disaster. And then they, they ended it. I mean, you could say that about podcasts. They're in podcast business now.

[Lucas]

Do you see it as Netflix scrambling or Netflix adapting?

[Craig Horlebeck]

I see it as adapting. I think shareholders don't like uncertainty and that's why the stock is down. They don't really know what's up. And it's not as certain. Like the narrative around Netflix was always, you know, this is a pure play, direct to consumer streaming company that is 100% focused on its business and has been growing, growing, growing. Now the growth is not as certain. They're acting more like a regular media company, try to do M and A, to grow themselves. You know, maybe they see some weaknesses in not having this IP in franchises, which is why they're so desperate to get Warner Brothers. Maybe it's not the kind of rocket ship that investors once thought. That's, I think, why the stock is, is hurting. And Netflix hasn't been very forthcoming about its growth trajectory. So I think that's what's going on here. But I ultimately don't think it will be the winning bid for Warners. I think Paramount is just. I mean, you're dealing with obsessed people here. They want this really bad and they don't have to, they don't have to worry about the shareholders. So we'll see. Not sure totally. But I do still think my prediction stands that Paramount will end up end up with it.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, that's the show for today.

[Craig Horlebeck]

I want to thank my guests Duncan Crabtree Ireland, everyone at CES and SAG Aftra, who let us use that. Audio producer Craig Horlebeck, art editor Jesse.

[Matt Bellany]

Lopez and I want to thank you.

[Craig Horlebeck]

We will see you next week for the box office draft 26. Get ready for it.