David Ellison Bought Paramount. Now He Wants Warner Bros. Plus, the 2025 Emmys Recap.

Summary

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Podcast Summary:

The Town with Matthew Belloni – “David Ellison Bought Paramount. Now He Wants Warner Bros. Plus, the 2025 Emmys Recap.”
Date: September 16, 2025
Host: Matt Belloni (Puck/The Ringer)
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Rich Greenfield (LightShed), Craig Horoback (The Ringer)

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Overview

This episode centers on two major topics dominating Hollywood chatter:

1. David Ellison’s Ambitions: After acquiring Paramount, Ellison and his family are now angling for Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling another seismic consolidation in the entertainment industry.
2. 2025 Emmys Recap: A lively analysis of this year’s Emmy Awards, the industry parties, winners and losers, and behind-the-scenes anecdotes.

Matt, Lucas, and Rich break down the implications of Ellison's potential Warner Bros. Discovery bid, industry reactions, and what it could mean for legacy Hollywood studios—before shifting to a candid, humorous Emmy awards debrief.

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Ellison Moves on Warner Bros. Discovery

Industry Sentiment and Shock

• Hollywood is uneasy after just recovering from the Paramount sale (03:32).
• Ellison, once a supposed studio savior, is now seen as potentially upending the industry further with more consolidation.
  • Quote: “The sentiment, not great. People freaked out about this.” – Matt (05:15)

Who’s Excited?

• Lucas points out, only some WB Discovery employees might be hopeful for change, bankers and consultants benefit from M&A chaos (05:30–06:39).
• Quote: “Bankers, consultants. It’s going to be great for McKinsey or Bain & Co.” – Lucas (06:39)

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Why Now? Why Not Wait for the Split?

Rich breaks down the timing, citing Warner’s leverage problems and possibly being forced to bring in outside capital sooner than planned (07:28–08:20), along with the math behind why Paramount wants to strike now (09:04–09:53).

• Paraphrased Quote: If Ellison bids now, he might block rivals from just picking up the “good” assets later.
• Tech giants interested, but not in cable networks: “Netflix, Apple, Amazon—they’re not buying cable networks.” – Matt (09:10)

Will Big Tech Bid?

• Consensus: Apple, Amazon, Netflix unlikely to buy the whole package.
  • “Do you buy that Apple, Amazon or Netflix would bid on the studio and streaming business?” – Lucas (09:53)
  • “I don’t think these companies are that serious of bidders.” – Rich (10:57)

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Regulatory Hurdles

• Fewer barriers than expected: No FCC involvement since there’s no broadcast license transfer (11:10–11:31).
• Under a Trump administration, regulatory veto seems unlikely.
  • “These days, whatever Trump wants, he seems to be getting with his people. So if he says, let it through…” – Matt (11:27)

Could Comcast Counter?

• Unlikely: Comcast’s Brian Roberts can’t outbid the Ellisons; “it’s funny money” given Larry Ellison’s vast resources (12:36–14:19).

Price: What’s the Magic Number?

• Market buzz is ~$20–30/share. If Ellison bids over $30, it’s a done deal for WB (15:27–17:32).
  • Quote: “If there’s an offer in the mid to high 20s, they are going to have to go down the line.” – Lucas (16:36)
  • Quote: “If you can get a lot of cash, at a big number… take it. Thank David Ellison and go do something else.” – Rich (17:40)

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The Ultimate Plan and Industry Impact

• Lucas asks if buying WB is really the best use of Ellison’s resources, or just chasing IP and franchises (21:33–23:44).
  • Quote: “He wants franchises...you cannot replicate 100 years of Warner Bros. franchises. And Netflix knows this better than anyone.” – Matt (23:33)
• Merging brings both “complementary” assets and massive integration pains, with likely layoffs (25:17–25:41).
• Rich speculates Ellison may have broader tech convergence plans (25:41–26:17).
  • “This is still only a piece…there’s a whole technology angle…” – Rich (25:41)

Odds of Deal Going Through

• Rich: 70%
• Lucas: 60%
• Matt: 75%
  • “I feel the same way I did when I first reported on Ellison’s interest in Paramount—money wins.” – Matt (27:39)

Key Segment Timestamps:

• [03:32] Hollywood’s reaction to Ellison wanting WB
• [07:28] Why strike now, not wait for the split
• [09:53] Appetite of big tech buyers
• [11:27] Regulatory path
• [14:19] Can Comcast compete?
• [16:36] The right price
• [21:33] Is this the best use of Ellison’s fortune?
• [25:41] Is this just the beginning for Ellison’s ambitions?
• [27:33] Odds the deal happens

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2025 Emmys Recap

Awards Ceremony Reactions

• General consensus: The ceremony had pacing issues and underwhelming hosting bits (28:10–28:57).
  • “Not a fan of the whole Nate Brazzi speech shortening bit.” – Matt (28:10)
  • “It was a funny idea, but it felt like an abdication of his hosting duties…” – Matt (28:23)
• Discussion of the infamous Emmys cash bar (29:16), and award show politics.

Party Circuit & Food

• HBO wins best food, Netflix best food runner-up, Apple party has “the best vibe” (29:54–30:32).
  • “[HBO] had a DIY potato chip and caviar station. For the Win burgers on the way out…great.” – Lucas (30:05)
• Tim Cook showed up at Apple party, is reportedly aware of the podcast (31:06).

Winners and Surprise Moments

• Netflix and HBO tied for 30 wins, Apple Studios’ biggest Emmy haul (34:26).
• Big surprises:
  • Jeff Hiller’s win at 34:1 odds—“Leicester City winning the Premier League.” – Craig (32:15)
  • Hannah Einbinder wins after never having won before.
  • Owen Cooper (from ‘Adolescence’) gave a standout acceptance speech (36:10).
• Apple lost out on expected bigger haul (“Severance” loses Best Drama).
• Hot takes on Colbert and John Oliver’s wins/loses, SNL’s 50th, and the shifting value of “movie stars” in TV.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “The Emmys parties are more fun than the Oscar parties. Felt more inclusive…everybody was allowed to hang out.” – Craig (33:43)
• “Seth Rogen not smoking weed at the Apple party…he was holding four Emmys.” (34:04)

Industry Implications

• The Emmy win matrix doesn’t necessarily translate to business success—especially for platforms like Amazon, which was a “non-player” this year (37:40).

Sneaky Winners/Losers

• Winners: Emmys (viewership up), Netflix & HBO (tied for most wins), Apple (personal best), Owen Cooper, Hannah Einbinder.
• Losers: Disney (only one win), FX (shut out), Harrison Ford & Kathy Bates (favorites who lost), Amazon (few wins), “Movie stars doing TV” (not guaranteed Emmys), Ben Stiller (lost major categories).

Final Predictions

• 2026 Emmys: HBO likely to return strong with “The Pit”; Hacks season 5 could dominate comedy as “the bear” and other competitors age out (39:50–40:49).

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Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps & Attribution)

• “Put us out of our misery. This long national nightmare of having to endure a stock price that is cut in half...” – Matt Belloni [05:40]
• “He was going to release 20 movies a year...everyone’s excited about this new player. And then it’s like, whoa, wait a second. You’re going to buy another studio?” – Matt Belloni [04:20]
• “Do you buy that Apple, Amazon, or Netflix would bid on the studio and streaming business?” – Lucas Shaw [09:53]
• “If you have enough money, you can overpay people walk across the street...The problem is, it takes time. If you want to hit the accelerator button and move swiftly, you make a big acquisition to just speed up the IP.” – Rich Greenfield [24:27]
• “Penguin is actually a show that people watched. And you know what? Harry Potter, as much as we laugh at it, people are going to watch that show.” – Matt Belloni [23:53]
• “I’m going to go 75%. I want to trump Rich a little. I think it happens...money wins.” – Matt Belloni [27:39]

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Conclusion

This episode encapsulates the heightened anxiety and speculation that comes with Hollywood mega-mergers, with Ellison’s drive, deep pockets, and unresolved ambitions stirring fresh debate about the future of the studio system. The team weighs in on possible outcomes, motivations, and the trickle-down effect for workers, legacy brands, and rivals.

The episode then segues into a breezy, sometimes biting recap of the Emmy awards and the surrounding festivities, offering listeners both industry insight and the kind of candid on-the-ground perspective only insiders can provide.

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For listeners:
This recap covers all major arguments, industry context, surprising moments, and opinionated hot takes from Matt and his guests—making it the perfect way to catch up on Hollywood’s latest seismic moves and the shape of this year’s TV landscape, even if you missed the episode.

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Transcript

[Matt Belloni]

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[Jacqueline Coley]

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[Matt Belloni]

It is Monday, September 15th. I gotta say, talking to people at Emmy parties this weekend, there was yet another little mini wave of distress over Hollywood, all stemming from the news last week that the Ellison family is preparing a majority cash bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. The Ellisons just bought Paramount. As we've been chronicling and as I've been discussing in my Puck newsletter for a while now, David Ellison wants to go after Warner Brothers and its stable of franchises, plus HBO max and its 150 million or so subscribers worldwide. If this deal happens, and it's still a big if, there's not even a formal bid yet, it would almost certainly mean the end of Warners and HBO as we know them, and a questionable future for yet another legacy Hollywood studio. Remember, Fox was sold to Disney and MGM was acquired by Amazon. The consolidation of Warners and Paramount in some form under one owner would be very, very impactful to the business. Lots of anxieties and questions here because of that. Namely, why would the Ellisons want Warner, Discovery, especially all those garbage cable networks, when they can wait and bid just for the studio and streamer next year after they're split from the TV networks? It's true that Paramount is still a subscale company, competing with Netflix and Apple and Amazon and YouTube. HBO and the Warner studios would give it a lot more scale. And more importantly, the Ellisons have nothing but money. Larry Ellison was briefly the world's richest man last week, but the combination of AT&T and Warner Brothers didn't catch Netflix. So why should the Ellisons think Paramount and Warner's has a better shot even with all that Oracle money behind it? Or is this just the beginning of something even bigger? Today we're going to get into both why this bid is happening and also some of the implications throughout the industry if it does happen. And for that, we've got two guests. Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy from Bloomberg, and Rich Greenfield, the analyst from LightShed, who's been writing a bunch on the topic. And then it's the big Emmys 2025 recap with Lucas, including everything that Craig ate at the Emmy parties.

[Lucas Shaw]

It was a lot.

[Matt Belloni]

It was a delicious cookie at hbo. Today, it's Ellison plus Paramount plus Warner, Discovery plus the Emmys. Is the deal really happening? And all the ramifications from the ringer and puck. I'm Matt Bellany, and this is the town. Okay, we are here with a very big show. So big, so much to talk about that we have two guests. We have Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy, and we also have Rich Greenfield, the analyst, the partner at LightShed Media, the poster of various workout videos on Instagram. Welcome, guys.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm letting Rich go first. He's the special Monday guest. I'm just the normal Monday guest.

[Rich Greenfield]

I'm honored. I'm honored to be included on Monday with my two favorite reporters. So I'm very excited.

[Matt Belloni]

That's nice. That means a lot. Thank you. All right, so we're going to get into some Emmy stuff with Lucas at the end of the show, but we are devoting the majority of the show to the big news of the past week, the coming bid, which has not even arrived yet, but just the news confirmation of what we kind of already knew, that David Ellison is now not content just with Paramount. He wants to go after Warner Brothers Discovery. And I gotta say, guys, at these Emmy events last night and over the weekend, chatting up people in town about what they think of this, and it's Amazing. The turnabout. Ellison was considered this savior of sorts. Oh, he's going to put billions into Paramount, save the studio. He's going to release 20 movies a year, going to spend tons of money on streaming, and everyone's excited about this new player. And then it's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a second. You're going to do what? You're going to buy another studio and potentially combine them and eliminate one of the biggest buyers in town, potentially. The sentiment, not great. People freaked out about this.

[Lucas Shaw]

I feel like it's mixed.

[Matt Belloni]

Oh, really? Okay, well, tell me who is excited about this and why?

[Lucas Shaw]

Some of the people who work for Warner Brothers Discovery are excited about it.

[Matt Belloni]

Other than that. Other than the people who are like, yes, put us out of our misery. This long national nightmare of having to endure a stock price that is cut in half and the management that, you know, seems to be positioning us for a split and a sale anyways. Who besides those people is excited about this?

[Rich Greenfield]

Well, just remember, Matt, at the very beginning of the Warner Brothers merger with Discovery, remember how everyone was sort of being talking about the excitement of Zaslav coming to town? He was going to spend all this money. He was excited about Hollywood. And how quickly did that turn into cost cut?

[Matt Belloni]

Well, he was talking that way.

[Lucas Shaw]

There had been frustration with the previous regime because of Jason Tyler's approach to movies, because there were a lot of people who felt like he didn't get Hollywood. And so they're like, okay, David Zaslav, he's going to love movies. He's moving into Bob Evans house. He gets us. And guess what? He didn't get him.

[Matt Belloni]

I know. I thought Lucas was going to say people like Rich are excited about this.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, bankers, consultants. It's going to be great for McKinsey or Bain & Co. Or whoever it is that David works with for the restructuring.

[Matt Belloni]

Well, the fact of the matter is he's tried for three years to raise this stock price, which has been significantly hurt. And the only thing that's really done it is now this speculation of a sale. So I want to get into that. I want to know why this is happening now. I want to talk about the ramifications across all of Hollywood. And let's get into the first part. Rich, why is this happening now? Why not just wait for a split? They say they're going to split the company into the good stuff. Studios and streaming on one side and the bad stuff, the crap company, the cable networks on the other. Why not wait until that happens and then take only the Stuff you want.

[Rich Greenfield]

The betting logic would be, you know, you're looking at the future and there's two things that are going to happen. One, because of the leverage challenges facing the Warner Brothers split, they were about to bring on a partner. So originally they had said, hey, we're going to basically spin this out, break these two companies. The Global Linear Networks, which is going to be called Discovery Global, was going to keep a 20% stake in HBO, which contains HBO and Warner Brothers Studios. Now they're saying, hey, we're going to sell 20% of that soon. And soon might be like within weeks. I don't know who that 20% owner is going to be, but that might have spooked Paramount.

[Lucas Shaw]

You didn't think that was just posturing on the part of Gunner and the company, that they had some of the money?

[Matt Belloni]

He says he has a buyer lined up. He said that at a conference?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, he said he's gotten offers. He did not say he had something set.

[Matt Belloni]

Okay.

[Rich Greenfield]

From what we've heard, the leverage math didn't work on the spin. And the reason they shifted to doing the sale before versus after, because you gotta take a discount to do it before. You're not getting the same type of value creation selling it now versus after it trades publicly. So the idea is they did the math wrong on the split and they had to raise more capital cash to actually delever it. But look, that may be secondary. Lucas may be totally right.

[Lucas Shaw]

Are we trying to answer why Warner Brothers Discovery wanted to do this now or why Paramount? I think the Paramount. Yeah. The logic for Warner Brothers Discovery is obvious. They would love someone to buy them. I mean, maybe not David Zaslav, but the company, the board would love someone. The question is why is Paramount moving it moving now?

[Matt Belloni]

But my take on that is they see the opportunity now to go after everything because a, they can, they have unlimited money and they know that there are some potential buyers for the good half of the company. Netflix, Apple, Amazon, they're not buying cable networks. But if they're available, perhaps they're going to buy just the studio and streamer. And if they can get ahead of that and put in their bid now and potentially scare away some of these companies like Comcast or others that are potential bidders and go for the entire company, including the bad stuff, then it doesn't give those other companies a chance to come in and the big tech people aren't going to get a chance to bid on the good stuff. Isn't that the reason?

[Lucas Shaw]

Do you buy that Apple, Amazon or Netflix would bid on the studio and streaming business.

[Rich Greenfield]

Rich, if those three companies really wanted to buy this, are we really to believe that for the last three years while Warner Brothers has been on its ass that they couldn't have stepped in, bought the whole thing and spun off what they didn't want? I mean, all of that was theoretically possible.

[Matt Belloni]

They could have bought it in 2017 when they approached Jeff Bukes to buy it. And they didn't want the cable networks. They only wanted hbo.

[Rich Greenfield]

You're not just buying Warner Brothers. Like Amazon basically bought a pure play studio in MGM even after the split. Is it really a pure play? I mean, you're still getting. HBO has deals with MVPDs like Comcast and Charter and DirecTV for years. They have bundling arrangements with Disney and Hulu. It is not a pure play studio. You're definitely buying a platform that I don't think Netflix, Amazon or Apple necessarily. I don't think they want the HBO Max piece of it. They want the hbo. They want Sopranos, they want House of Dragon. But do they want everything else?

[Lucas Shaw]

I agree with Rich. I don't think that these companies are that serious of bidders.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, no, I agree with you as well. But they are potentials out there.

[Lucas Shaw]

Sure. I don't think that David Ellison has that much competition for this thing.

[Matt Belloni]

Talk to David Zaslav. He's out there talking about bidding wars.

[Lucas Shaw]

And certainly not competition that stands as good a chance as he does of getting it through the regulatory regime. I do think there's probably something to the fact that normally this is the kind of deal that the DOJ and FTC would look at twice. I don't know that they do under Trump, and I certainly don't know that they do with Larry as the buyer.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, I don't think David moves on this unless he has some kind of idea or assurance that he can get it through. And remember, there's no FCC review on this because there's no transfer of broadcast licenses. So the Brendan Carr issue is not a thing. The DOJ and FTC are a thing. And these days, whatever Trump wants, he seems to be getting with his people. So if he says, let it through.

[Lucas Shaw]

Let it through, you say it's not a thing. But Brendan Carr could just say, hey, cnn, fairness, I'm going to make this a thing. I'm not saying, you know, you never know.

[Rich Greenfield]

He's got no authority, but he could.

[Matt Belloni]

I mean, I guess, yeah, he could. But even on the Time Warner sale, it didn't go through the fcc. It went through the Justice Department.

[Rich Greenfield]

But let me ask you two a question.

[Matt Belloni]

You're Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast.

[Rich Greenfield]

You've wanted to merge NBCU with WBD Warner Brothers for years, going back even before the discovery transaction. There is no FCC approval for that transaction either. If you combine these two companies, same idea would be. Would be true. Do you make a run?

[Matt Belloni]

I think you do not try because you're going to be embarrassed because Ellison has more money and does not have to adhere to any kind of fiscal discipline. Unlike other situations like when he bid up the price of the Fox assets when Disney was going after that just to kind of make them pay more. So what if Ellison has to pay more? Like it's funny money when you're father is worth 250, $300 billion. Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

We're up to like 380 for him.

[Matt Belloni]

Rich.

[Lucas Shaw]

I guess. How do Comcast shareholders respond if they make a bid for it? Since I think they're already tired of what's happening with Peacock and NBC Universal.

[Rich Greenfield]

I'm sure they hate it. On the flip side, they did put a lot more debt on Disney's balance sheet than Disney wanted. Right?

[Matt Belloni]

That's true.

[Rich Greenfield]

And look, isn't Peacock sort of. I don't know what the word is.

[Matt Belloni]

But like odd bird out, ass out is the word.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, Peacock and Paramount plus are the two that everyone sort of agrees that Peacock, Paramount plus hbo, Max two or all three of them need to come together because we don't need them all.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, David Zaslav says we don't need them all.

[Rich Greenfield]

Right, so what do you do now? Like if you're Brian, you know, your studio looks smaller now, your Peacock looks sort of stranded or alone. I don't think they were really going to merge their cable networks adversant into anything else. But you know, certainly Wall street hoped for that. Like none of that's going to happen if this merger occurs. And so again, I don't see how Brian could ever win against Ellison. I think that's the challenge mathematically. I just wonder if he feels compelled to be part of the process. He's the only one that I think could bid now for everything. The others I just can't see at.

[Lucas Shaw]

A minimum to make David and Larry pay more.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, okay, great. Congratulations. Like they get to pay more. It's like two days of Oracle stock. I want to talk about the price here because we do not know what this bid will even be. And I talked to an insider this weekend at an event who was basically saying if the offer is in the 20s in the $20 range. Then it's a conversation. And Zaslav can go to the board and be like, well, we have growth potential here. Why are you doing. If it's above $30? Was this what this person talked about? The threshold was $30. If the $30 per share bid comes in, it's over. There's no way the board can dismiss that. And it will be an easy process and they will start the diligence and Zaslav will be done. Rich, you put out a note this morning saying no. Investor we have talked to believes WBD CEO David Zaslav and the board of directors could vote no on a Paramount bid assuming a $20 plus offer with the vast majority in cash. So you think it may be over even in the $20 range? Not the 30 range?

[Rich Greenfield]

No, no, no. I'm saying investors believe that. I actually agree with you, Matt. I think Zaslav feels like he's figured out Hollywood.

[Matt Belloni]

Oh, please. I know he says that, but come.

[Rich Greenfield]

On, you and Lucas and I, we all just sat here and talked about the fact that in theory, there are more bidders later than now. There may not be, but in theory, there are. So you can talk yourself into a story of, hey, if we split and we keep having success in Hollywood and HBO with the Pit and sort of the momentum from the Emmys and all of this, you can lead yourself into a world of, oh, let's say no now, and in two years, we'll have not just Paramount bidding in two years, but we might have an Apple or we might have a Netflix.

[Lucas Shaw]

There's a big difference between how David Zaslav feels about it and how the board feels about it. Right?

[Matt Belloni]

You would think so. Although he's saying to people that Malone is off the board and, you know, they're much more in line with him. But I disagree. I think they are. They're going to get sued. They're going to get shareholder lawsuits if they don't look seriously at an Ellison bid. That takes them out at a very attractive price.

[Lucas Shaw]

They're trading at almost $20 a share after they had a run up because of, you know, excitement about the deal. Yeah. If there's an offer in the mid to high 20s, they are going to have to go down the line. It doesn't have to get the 30 for them to seriously consider it. I'm not saying it'll happen.

[Rich Greenfield]

Anything above 20, I would say yes, like mathematically, but. But I don't make these decisions. There are humans who are looking at.

[Matt Belloni]

This, and David Zaslav is yelling in their ear saying I can make this. You know, we just cleaned up the Emmys.

[Lucas Shaw]

The movie studios had a great year. HBO is growing.

[Matt Belloni]

But you know what? He has had three years to do this.

[Rich Greenfield]

But he could say it takes time. And Pam and Mike, it took time.

[Matt Belloni]

The company has never traded on the success of the movie studio. We know that he promised $14 billion a year in EBITDA in 2023 when he came into this company. Where is it now, Rich? What is the EBITDA going to be this year?

[Rich Greenfield]

It is not a 10, right? You are sub 10.

[Matt Belloni]

That is the answer. Weapons does not move that needle. Superman does not move that needle.

[Rich Greenfield]

My fundamental view is these are tough businesses. Not just Warner, but this whole sector. I mean Disney stock is where it was a decade ago. If you can get a lot of cash, like 70 plus percent cash at a big number where this stock hasn't traded in years, you should take it. Thank David Ellison and the Ellison family fortune and just go do something else.

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[Matt Belloni]

Do you guys make anything of Zaslav sitting next to Ted Sarandos at the boxing match on Saturday night? Which is a thing that happened. I had multiple people texting me that Zaz was sitting next to. I asked Ted about this at the Netflix party. He said David is a friend. I invited him. But I'm pretty sure Zaslav enjoys the optics of his cozy relationship with with the co CEO of Netflix to get potentially the rumor out there that Netflix may want to buy them.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think yes, but it might be as simple as a reciprocal offer where David invited Ted to sit, go to a Knicks playoff game with him. And so. And then when Ted had a big sporting event, he was able to offer this in return.

[Rich Greenfield]

I have a slightly different take on that, Lucas. I actually think the reciprocity was actually hanging out at wizard of Oz in Vegas and getting.

[Matt Belloni]

Oh, God.

[Rich Greenfield]

Getting to see what? No, I mean, I think for Netflix content, is there opportunities to use that as sort of an event venue for films or content in general?

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, but Zaslav doesn't own the Sphere. They have a movie there. But if Sarandos wants to do a deal with Sphere, he's got to call Jim Dolan.

[Rich Greenfield]

I understand.

[Matt Belloni]

Okay, what can Zaslav do here? Clearly he does not want this Ellison deal to go through. He wants to be crowned, as I wrote, the king of all Burbank and have his studio and streamers company where he can then auction it off and potentially get other bidders and have more time in the limelight here. What can he do to forestall this?

[Rich Greenfield]

If anything, I think it really comes down to what does the board believe? Like, does a majority of the board believe that after the split occurs, so the split set for sort of April through May, June of 2026. Does this board actually believe that Apple, Amazon, Netflix, or at least one of those, maybe two of those, are real bidders for HBO and Warner Brothers? If they do, they have an actual path. As crazy and as insane as this is, they have a path to saying no. If they don't believe they're credible bidders, there is no path fiduciary wise to say no.

[Lucas Shaw]

I have a different question. From the Paramount perspective, do we actually think that this is the best use of the Ellison family fortune in media? If you just bought Paramount, should you invest a bunch of money into Paramount or do you buy something else and merge it with Paramount? What is a better use of the money?

[Matt Belloni]

I think what Ellison thinks, and this is from conversations with him, I asked him this point blank at their media event. He wants franchises and he has always been a franchise guy. This is a guy who was making Terminator movies. This is a guy who was doing Top Gun and doing Mission Impossible. He wants franchises. And as I've said on the show many times, Warner's has Franchises, I mean, they've been talking it up ad nauseam. These are real franchises now query whether they can manage them successfully and turn them, you know, keep those that value going. But they have IP and they have the expertise to do it. Now. I think mashing these companies together would cause a lot of chaos. And I don't know if there's a world in which Casey Bloys and HBO would ever report to Cindy Holland, the streaming chief at Paramount. Maybe they have to do something to keep him separate from there and have him directly report to the CEO. Maybe the. The regime at Warner Brothers wouldn't want to report to Dana Goldberg at Paramount. Or maybe they have to put them above her. There's something that would need to happen. But ultimately, these companies are complementary to each other. The Paramount plus audience is different from the HBO audience. Warner's has franchises, Paramount doesn't. They are complementary companies.

[Rich Greenfield]

You're saying, like, if I had unlimited amount of capital. Basically, that's what Luke is saying. Unlimited.

[Lucas Shaw]

David is in a situation where he has somewhat unlimited. He had. Fine, we'll say unlimited. I'm not sure.

[Matt Belloni]

So does Netflix, and Netflix has real problems.

[Lucas Shaw]

Unlimited capital to build the media company of the future that I, David Ellison, want to run.

[Matt Belloni]

Yes.

[Lucas Shaw]

And I've started that by buying Paramount. What is the best way to move forward?

[Matt Belloni]

Do you hear my point, though? That it's not just about money. It's about franchises. And you cannot replicate 100 years of Warner Brothers franchises. And Netflix knows this better than anyone.

[Lucas Shaw]

That's great. How are those franchises working for HBO Max right now?

[Matt Belloni]

Well, they just won Emmys and got a lot of audience for the Penguin.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, but the Emmys don't fucking matter.

[Matt Belloni]

I know, but Penguin is actually a show that people watched. And you know what? Harry Potter, as much as we laugh at it, people are going to watch that show.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm very excited for Harry Potter.

[Matt Belloni]

All right. But you know what I'm saying? They have those resources. Sure. You know what Paramount plus doesn't have? They don't have those kinds of shows. They rely on Taylor Sheridan.

[Lucas Shaw]

And yet Paramount plus accounts for almost as much viewership as HBO Max, despite having a fraction of the library and none of the franchises.

[Matt Belloni]

But do they have the revenue that HBO and do they have the branding? And if we were to combine those two services, what would we call it? We would probably call it hbo.

[Rich Greenfield]

I think you have to just step back and go, ellison has a plan. Just like if you look at the tech giants, what they've done by just Investing. You know, Netflix hasn't really bought anything. Amazon, sure, they bought mgm. But like, all of these companies are proving that money talks. And if you have enough money, you can overpay people to walk across the street just like the Duffer brothers just walked over. Just like south park is now being reheld by Paramount. Like, if you spend money, you can get the content. The problem is it takes time. And I feel like the reason why you do this, Lucas, is you're trying to accelerate the plan. Like you have a plan inside of Paramount to go build over the next five years. But if you want to hit the accelerator button and move swiftly, you make a big acquisition to just speed up the ip. Rather than building from scratch, you take it in a much faster way.

[Lucas Shaw]

That makes a lot of sense. The only thing I guess I'd say in response is merging, integrating, restructuring, all that stuff is also really time consuming.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah. And they've been through it three times in the past seven years. And I mean, I can't even imagine going through it again if I was an HBO or Warner employee, especially knowing that the end result is going to be thousands more layoffs.

[Rich Greenfield]

At the end of the day, when you think about what Ellison's ultimate plan is, my guess is, Lucas, this is still only a piece. Like, I still think that there's a whole technology angle to what he's trying to do. And you know, obviously lots of headlines out earlier today about what the Trump administration is trying to do with the Ellison family and Oracle for TikTok. Like, I feel like there's 4D chess going on. I don't know exactly where this all fits together, but I do feel like there's more to this than just buying Paramount. And even if they assuming they do Warner Brothers, I still think there's more to it than just those two things.

[Matt Belloni]

I totally agree. And I think that the ambitions of a 42 year old son of the world's richest man can never be underestimated because this is what is so terrifying to people around town. To bring it back home is not only can he buy anything he wants really, he kind of seems to want to. So does it mean TikTok? Does it mean Snap? Does it mean any of these technology companies that could potentially be merged with entertainment assets to create a real competitor to YouTube or Netflix or one of these other companies? We kind of don't know. TikTok plus professionally produced studio content. Pretty powerful.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Although I still am a little suspicious as to what any of these TikTok sales mean or look like. When the underlying technology is still going to be controlled by ByteDance. But.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, yeah, but for now, you never know. All right, so, guys, give me your odds on David Ellison buying Warner Brothers Discovery. Richard, first percentage chance that this happens. That a year from now we are talking about HBO, a Skydance Corporation, Warner Brothers, a Skydance Corporation.

[Rich Greenfield]

70%.

[Matt Belloni]

70%. Yes. It happens. How about you, Lucas?

[Lucas Shaw]

I was going to say 60%.

[Matt Belloni]

I'm going to go 75%. I want to trump Rich a little. I think it happens the same. I feel the same way that I did when I first reported on Ellison's interest in Paramount Money wins. Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time. All right, we are back with the call sheet. Lucas, I did not see you last night at the various Emmy parties. Were you out and about?

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I went to two.

[Matt Belloni]

Oh, you did? Which ones?

[Lucas Shaw]

I went to Netflix and then hbo.

[Craig Horoback]

I think we just missed you at Netflix. We had heard you were just there.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, Craig and I enjoyed the show. We were there. You know, not a fan of the whole Nate Brazzi speech shortening bit.

[Craig Horoback]

Like the Boys and Girls Club donation thing.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, I just. It was a funny idea, but it just felt like an abdication of his hosting duties where you have one joke that goes the entire show.

[Craig Horoback]

Also, I think half the point of award shows is that people get to watch their favorite celebrities be candid on stage and speak about their award and winning.

[Matt Belloni]

It was a miss. It was a miss.

[Craig Horoback]

This bit was effective in that a lot of people like Colbert and John Oliver would come up and rattle through 10 seconds of thank yous and get off the stage, which I don't think should be the goal of an award show.

[Matt Belloni]

Came in under three hours, though.

[Lucas Shaw]

I really liked it at the beginning. And then. Yeah, it sort of. It lost. Lost momentum.

[Matt Belloni]

By the way, can we. This is a bone of contention with the TV Academy. Really? A cash bar at the Emmys? Like, what are we doing? Is this a trucking convention? Like, the Oscars would never do that. You go to the. The bar at the Oscars and the drinks are free. Like, come on.

[Craig Horoback]

Do you think it's because the Emmys is three times the size of the Oscars and if it's an open bar, there's just going to be nobody in the seats and everyone would just be drinking in the. In the back area?

[Matt Belloni]

Well, that's what they say. They say they do it to discourage congregating in the lobby. But you know what?

[Lucas Shaw]

Come on.

[Matt Belloni]

We're there three hours. It's a painful ceremony. Just like Give us some drinks.

[Craig Horoback]

Maybe two free drink tickets or something.

[Matt Belloni]

Sure. There you go. Everyone gets two free drink tickets. I know, it's embarrassing. Craig. What? This was your first Emmys. Give us your food review of the Governor's Ball and the three parties you and I went to three parties last night. Rank the food offerings.

[Craig Horoback]

Well, it's tough to hbo. We got there very late, so I almost have to disqualify them.

[Lucas Shaw]

But I would say HBO had the best food. I can just tell you that.

[Matt Belloni]

I saw the potential. The hand roll station was closed when we got there.

[Lucas Shaw]

They had caviar, they had Holbox, which is amazing Mexican seafood. They had a DIY potato chip and caviar station. They always have the hand rolls they had for the Win burgers on the way out, which was great.

[Matt Belloni]

Wow. It was. Yeah. Although Netflix had Mother Wolf pasta and pizza, which tasted very good, I got to admit, that was like hit the spot after being famished for three hours.

[Craig Horoback]

My review was Netflix, best food, Apple best vibe, HBO best dressed.

[Matt Belloni]

They even had a mini Tom Cruise cake table at the Governor's Ball, Doan's Bakery. They had a little sign like, if you're in the know, you know, that's the Tom Cruise cake. We did go to the Apple party. It was quite a scene. Saw a lot of the studio people. Very nice to catch up with some of them who I had not seen since I did my little cameo at 3am at the Venetian in Vegas two summers ago. There was a celebratory vibe there for sure. Tim Cook showed up. I have some breaking news. Tim Cook is aware of the town and has possibly listened to the show.

[Lucas Shaw]

That's a career changing moment for you. He's going to. They're going to make. Apple's going to make an offer to buy it from Spotify. How much would. How much would it take for a bill to say yes?

[Matt Belloni]

Well, much like David Zaslav, we are going to start a bidding war. I'm hearing there's a bidding war for the town.

[Lucas Shaw]

SiriusXM has come in at 25 million. Apple bring it up to 40 or no deal.

[Craig Horoback]

Yeah, Matt, you need to be at the next Dodger game next to Tim Cook.

[Matt Belloni]

Exactly. I'm going to start a rumor.

[Lucas Shaw]

Do we think that Apple considers last night a success when, you know, they had to think they were going to get both of them? I know you predicted they were going to lose, but I know that their executives were telling people before the show, it's going to be a good night for us. Severance was considered the favorite by the oddsmakers.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, I mean, Tim Cook has a relationship with Ben Stiller. I think they probably would have loved that. But for Apple to get all those wins for the studio, they did get two big acting wins for Severance. Not nothing there. And at the party, Tim Cook was posing for photos with Brit Lower and Tramell Tillman. So, yeah, disappointment, but it's an award show. Like, it's not going to impact the price of iPhones.

[Craig Horoback]

There was a lot of surprises, actually. We were going through the odds, Matt and I sitting at the show, and there was a lot of underdogs that won. Obviously, the Jeff Hiller thing was incredible. He was 34 to 1 odds. He was dead last in the odds. That was like Leicester City winning the Premier League.

[Matt Belloni]

I was texting with someone and I was like, we need a full investigation of how this happened. How did this. How did Jeff Hiller beat Harrison Ford? And most people thought Ike Barinholtz from the studio had a good shot at it.

[Craig Horoback]

But like, Brit Lower was not the odds on favorite to win. So there was some Severance.

[Lucas Shaw]

Who was the random actress who. You were obsessed with the campaign for her to win Best Best Actress at the Oscars?

[Craig Horoback]

Andrea Riseborough.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, I don't think this is that, though. I mean, do you think there was some Jeff Hiller underground campaign? I think people just watched the show and liked it and thought he was amazing in it. And all the other people canceled themselves out and he pulled it out. Yeah. This is why we should release the actual numbers on the votes at these award shows. It would make them so much better if we knew how much people won by.

[Craig Horoback]

Also, if Harrison Ford had won, he would have gotten on stage and put the whole Boys and Girls Club thing to rest and just offered a million dollars to end this, and it would.

[Matt Belloni]

Have been great and gotten the biggest ovation. And it's basically a. It's. It's basically his mailbox money from Star Wars.

[Craig Horoback]

Well, and it's. It's. The bit was totally undercut because you obviously knew by the end of the show, Nate was going to come on and say, we're, we're paying, you know, we're going to double our donation, blah, blah, blah.

[Matt Belloni]

Craig, you said something interesting to me last night, that the Emmys parties are more fun than the Oscar parties.

[Craig Horoback]

It felt a little bit more integrated. Everybody was allowed to hang out together, and it felt more inclusive, which I found to be fun. It wasn't like, oh, the cool people are cordoned off in A corner and you can't access them. It felt like a fun party that everybody was equal at.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, another shocker. Seth Rogen not smoking weed at the Apple party.

[Craig Horoback]

He had too many Emmys.

[Matt Belloni]

They even did it at an outdoor patio restaurant, thinking that he would probably smoke a joint or two during the party.

[Craig Horoback]

He was holding four Emmys. He couldn't hold a joint in his hand.

[Matt Belloni]

I gotta think Tim Cook being, you know, four people away probably impacted that a little, perhaps.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't know that he cares about that.

[Matt Belloni]

Okay, let's do some sneaky winners and losers. Obviously, the Emmys themselves are winners here. The show was up about 8% according to CBS from last year. 7.42 million viewers. Not bad. Not great, but definitely not bad and not declining. Netflix and HBO Both tied for 30 total wins, so I guess they gotta be winners. Apple also got the most wins that they've ever had, thanks to the studio mostly and severance.

[Lucas Shaw]

Last year was supposed to be FX's year. HBO ends up stealing comedy with hacks. This year's supposed to be Apple's year. They steal drama with the Pit. I had two people in those shows, though. I feel like for Noah Wiley, whose career basically didn't exist post ar. Er. Excuse me.

[Matt Belloni]

Like, oh, he was on that TNT show for a while. I know, but I agree with you.

[Lucas Shaw]

But this is like his. He was a driving force behind the show. Coming back that same day, there was the whole New York Times piece about, like, was this theft? Did they screw over the Crichton estate? And it just. They win. And Hannah Einbinder, the star of hacks who had never won before, that was a big win for her.

[Matt Belloni]

Colbert, man. Colbert getting his anointing.

[Lucas Shaw]

Colbert won is a little funny where, like, okay, your show got canceled because it was losing a bunch of money. And now the industry, which has never given you an award, decides it's the time they care. It's like the people who got Martyr.

[Matt Belloni]

He's a martyr.

[Lucas Shaw]

I get it.

[Matt Belloni]

That's fine. My sneaky winner is Owen Cooper, the kid from adolescence. That kid was, like, amazing in his speech. I saw him in the restroom of the Netflix party, and, like, the guy's getting swarmed by everyone. Like, he's this giant star. I do know there's, like, a feeding frenzy to sign him because he doesn't have U.S. representatives. And, like, that guy, I would not be surprised if that guy makes the transition and becomes a real adult actor.

[Craig Horoback]

Him and Trill Tillman had the most comfortable, charismatic speeches. I mean, he just Walked up and it sounds like he was off the cuff. He was incredibly professional for a 15 year old. Thought he was great.

[Matt Belloni]

Losers. I have Disney. They only got one win for Andor FX won nothing.

[Lucas Shaw]

I had FX specifically because they had such a big year last year. They got nothing this year.

[Matt Belloni]

Landgraaf didn't even show up. John Langra was not there.

[Lucas Shaw]

I was told he was there.

[Matt Belloni]

Oh wait, is that true?

[Lucas Shaw]

Maybe just the FX people, but I was told the FX had like people have given up on the bear.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, the bear people didn't show up. No, I owe no Jeremy Allen White.

[Lucas Shaw]

I had both Harrison Ford and Kathy Bates as sort of sad losers because everyone thought that they were going to win and they didn't.

[Matt Belloni]

Well, the whole notion of a star doing television like a movie star doing television and getting an automatic Emmy, that's not true anymore. We're over that. Michelle Williams can do television, Cate Blanchett can do television. And they're not necessarily gonna win.

[Lucas Shaw]

And when no one watches their shows, nobody votes for them.

[Matt Belloni]

So I mean it's gonna be trickle down to the business. Like do you greenlight those shows when you know you can't necessarily get the Emmy, you get the nomination. They got their nomination.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, shrinking I feel like is a successful show. So they would do that show 10 times out of 10.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, that's true.

[Lucas Shaw]

And Matlock is also a successful show.

[Matt Belloni]

But Dying for Sex, that was greenlit because Michelle Williams wanted to do it. And Disclaimer was greenlit the Cuaron show because Cate Blanchett wanted to do it.

[Lucas Shaw]

The problem with that is neither of those people have ever really been commercial stars.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, it's true. Another loser, Amazon. Just a non player this year. I mean tons of shows now, I.

[Lucas Shaw]

Feel like they're just not in this game.

[Matt Belloni]

Maybe a loser for David Ellison. Paramount put out a big statement sort of rebuking the stars who had said that the Israeli film groups should not be supported because they're implicated in the war in Gaza. And then lo and behold, on cbs, the network he now owns, we have Hannah Einbinder and Javier Bardem dropping their Free Palestine comments and stuff that he probably doesn't agree with.

[Lucas Shaw]

So maybe a little loser there as an SNL superfan. Do you feel like SNL got enough love for year 50 where when John Oliver still won a couple of the categories up against them?

[Matt Belloni]

No, I do not. I was happy to see Lauren get his moment on stage and give his speech. That was great. But I would have liked to see the John Oliver Streak end. Because if ever there was a time that it was going to, would have been the 50th. But the voters chose to honor the actual 50th special, not the season.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. And they. They did end the John Oliver streak for Colbert.

[Matt Belloni]

No, no, no. John Oliver is not eligible.

[Lucas Shaw]

He's not in that. Oh, right, because they changed the category.

[Matt Belloni]

He goes up against snl, and it was the Daily show that won last year and the year before.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Belloni]

So he beat the Daily Show. But, uh, I think Jon Stewart's probably okay with that.

[Craig Horoback]

I do think the funniest thing that they did at the show was the opening SNL sketch. I thought that was well done.

[Matt Belloni]

That was funny. Even though it was a ripoff of the SNL George Washington sketch.

[Craig Horoback]

Yeah, but they've done that a few times now, and that's one of their more successful sketches that stuck over the last few seasons.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, Loser. Maybe Ben Stiller. He was nominated in a couple categories. Did not win directing for Severance. Did not win series.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm sure he thought he was going to win director. You know, I'm sure he did not.

[Craig Horoback]

Look thrilled the entire. Every time they cut to him doing bits behind JB Smooth. He was not. He was not into it.

[Matt Belloni]

No. I don't think he appreciates the something about Mary references. He's now a serious auteur and did not want the nuts in the zipper joke to be referenced 25 years later. Didn't see him at the apple party, so if he was there, I missed him. All right, any. Any other takeaways? Lucas, Are we done?

[Lucas Shaw]

No.

[Matt Belloni]

No, we're done. We will not talk about the Emmys.

[Lucas Shaw]

Until this time next year.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah.

[Craig Horoback]

Do you want to make your 2026 prediction, Matt?

[Matt Belloni]

Oh, yeah, I'll do that. I mean, the nice thing for HBO is that the Pit is coming back. I mean, it won in part because I think the industry rallied behind the fact that it's 15 episodes shot in LA on the Warner's lot. Traditional style show.

[Craig Horoback]

I love that. 15 episodes is an achievement now.

[Matt Belloni]

Yeah, I know it's sad, but John Wells, a big player in town. People love him. And the best thing for HBO is it's coming back in January, so it's instantly the front runner for next year. And they will have the season five finale of Hacks, which will probably be a player.

[Lucas Shaw]

And I believe, if the folks at HBO who are very excited about this last night are correct, that the studio will not be in for next year.

[Matt Belloni]

That is, I believe, true. They're not planning to shoot until 1Q26, so it probably will not be ready.

[Lucas Shaw]

So comedy will be open for Hacks should people want to return to giving it an award, because it's likely going.

[Craig Horoback]

To be the final season of Hacks. But that does mean that the studio in 2027, the bear will be gone and Hacks will be gone.

[Matt Belloni]

And obviously no severance next year and no andor because Andor is over. So should be open. We'll see. All right. Thank you, Lucas. That's the show for today. I want to thank my guests Rich Greenfield, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horoback, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.

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[Matt Belloni]

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