← The Town with Matthew Belloni
The Town with Matthew Belloni
Does the Surprise Writers Guild Deal Mean Labor Peace in Hollywood?
00:35:45
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A
Foreign. This episode of the Town is presented to you by AMC Networks. Billy Magnuson and Zach Galifianakis star in the new series the Audacity on AMC and amc. Plus influence rises, people unravel and CEO meltdowns are business as usual among Silicon Valley elite. Executive produced by Jonathan Glatzer, a writer, producer of Succession and Better Call Saul, The Audacity premieres April 12th only on AMC and AMC.
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A
It is Monday, April 6th. Quite a shocker over the holiday weekend. I reported on Saturday morning that the Writers Guild, typically the most aggressive of the Hollywood unions and one of the two that went on strike about three years ago, shut the industry down. They reached a surprise deal with the studios. That's after only a few weeks of negotiations and well before the end of the negotiation window. The deal must still be ratified by the membership, but that's expected to happen, and the WGA put out a statement saying the deal, quote, protects our health plan and puts it on a sustainable path. And it, quote, builds on the gains from 2023 and helps address free work challenges. That healthcare issue was the big one given how underwater the Guild's health plan was. And I'm told there are the usual increases in minimums, particularly for streaming video series and movies, as well as AI protections when the studios want to use scripts to train AI models. On the studio side, the big get was that this is a four year deal. That's a year longer than usual and a big concession for the writers. That's what they had to give to get the big health plan bailout. Overall, this is great news for Hollywood in general at a time when another writer strike would have been disastrous. But it also raises many questions. Our normal Monday guy, Lucas Shaw, is traveling today, so I brought in a Hollywood union expert, Jonathan Handel. Jonathan is an experienced labor lawyer and writer. He's written for me at Puck and he came on the show during the strike. We're going to dive into this WGA deal. What they got, what they gave up, the four year question, and whether this is the first domino that will lead to overall labor peace in Hollywood at a crucial time. Remember sag aftra, the actors union? They started negotiating earlier this year, but they couldn't reach a deal. So they're scheduled to bargain more ahead of the June 30th expiration today. It's the Writers Guild deal. The shocking end to these negotiations and what it all means from the ringer and puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Jonathan Handel, senior counsel at Feig Finkel in Los Angeles. Hollywood labor expert, author, journal, etc. Etc. Welcome back, Jonathan.
- [03:21]
C
It's great to be back with you, Matt.
- [03:23]
A
Okay, so I got to admit, I was a little surprised when a source called me on Saturday morning and said, you're not going to believe this. The writers did their deal first before the other guilds, and it's a four year deal. So I want to get into the why of it all, but let's first get into the what, what is this tentative deal? What did they get?
- [03:45]
C
What.
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A
What did they give up? To the extent we know.
- [03:48]
C
To the extent we know. Which is. Which is fairly little. They got wage increases, of course. They got improvements in residuals. We don't know what level of improvements. They got very critically, an infusion into their health fund.
- [04:01]
A
Yeah, we'll get to that.
- [04:02]
C
We'll get to that. That was teetering. And finally they got, quote, unquote, protections related to use of scripts as training data in AI.
- [04:12]
A
Yeah, that was in my original report about the AI element. The reason that this is interesting is because the Writers Guild typically is the most aggressive of all the guilds. They were a big reason that the industry went on strike three years ago. Why do you think they did this deal so quickly this time?
- [04:34]
C
Well, really three reasons. One, number one, strike fatigue. For three years ago, it was historic duel actors and writers strikes. Hadn't seen that in over 60 years.
- [04:43]
A
Number two, and just, just, sorry, just to put a button on that.
- [04:47]
C
Yeah.
- [04:47]
A
You believe that the militant wing of the guild, which has been driving the bus for many years and which has been pushing, pushing, pushing on these, these, these issues, that they were overruled or that the rank and file was not as motivated for a strike, or that the high earners, the people, the showrunners that have typically been kind of beaten down in these situations, that they had a little bit more power to say Listen, guys, what are we doing here? The health plan is tens of millions of dollars underwater here. The wages and the Guild's own data says that in 2024, writer employment was down 9.4% from the previous year. And the year before that, it's down 24% compared with 2022. So just the state of the business and the bad place that the Writers Guild itself was in was a big factor here.
- [05:48]
C
That's exactly right. That's my, that's part of my. Number two. The other side of it is that that these studios themselves were also vulnerable because of the state of the industry, the dire straits the industry is in, consolidation, cost cutting, all of that. And finally, number three, the presence of a new head of the AMPTP studio and Streamer alliance, the umbrella group that they negotiate as Greg Hessinger, who has a background, actually on the labor side. He was an executive director of AFTRA some years ago and briefly executive director of sag. And he was quite clear that he wanted to reset the labor relations, the management labor relations in this industry compared to, frankly, the last 45 years. It was 45 years ago that the current version, the AMPTP was founded. Nick Counter was the executive director of the president for many years, and then Carol Lombardini, his number two. And that was all marked by a very hostile and confrontational relationship. And Hessinger wanted to reset that.
- [06:51]
A
I'm going to miss the Carol Lombardini California Pizza Kitchen Cheesecake Factory tweets that we saw during the strike. I really, I, I miss those. I, I wish there was more villainizing on the writer side. I know I don't want to take aide here, but objectively, those were funny tweets.
- [07:08]
C
They were, they were funny tweets.
- [07:10]
A
So you think that because Greg Henger comes in here, he's the new guy, he's able to say to the writers, forget about all that past stuff. I'm here to create a new relationship. And do you think that he may have given a little in areas that Carol wouldn't have?
- [07:30]
C
Possibly. And he certainly, you know, did not want to come in the same way Carol went out, which is on a strike. And, you know, that's got to be weighing, weighing in the balance. And, you know, they asked for five for a five year contract. These contracts are, have been three years for at least the last half century. And the four year compromise is the sort of thing that, you know, sort of just makes sense, split the baby. They may have to do reopeners related to AI If AI evolves really quickly, that's the downside of a four year
- [08:01]
A
more labor, will they have the ability to do that?
- [08:03]
C
If both sides agree they can't for the writers won't be able to force it, but they could push for it.
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A
And what do you mean by that? Like all of a sudden, within two years, AI has completely taken over the industry and the revenues are cratering and everybody's scripts are being stolen online. They will do something to remedy or to update the terms.
- [08:25]
C
Right. They'll reopen or reopen that limited aspect of the, of the collective bargaining agreement for renegotiation.
- [08:32]
A
Okay, so let's talk about the four year aspect here, because that really was the shocking element. I interviewed Duncan Crabtree Ireland at CES in January and I asked him straight up if the five years that was then on the table was something that was realistic. And he was very skeptical. And my understanding is that SAG aftra, one of the reasons why they did not get a deal in the first round of negotiations was because of that extra year. And there were some other things that are more actor specific. They have different tiers of members and they were, they had some other issues that are still outstanding. But adding an extra year and breaking precedent and, and giving up the leverage that you get with the studios having to come back to you every three years, that is a pretty significant concession. And to me it signaled just how bad a place the WGA was in going into this negotiation that that's kind of all they had. If they wanted to shore up a $122 million deficit in their health plan, they're going to have to give something and that's where it is in the year.
- [09:41]
C
Well, that's exactly right. And that leverage, if you think about it, when we say they, the studios come back every three years, in fact, it's. Every negotiation takes a period of time. It's really every, you know, as soon as you get a deal done, it's really another two years, two and a half, two and a quarter years.
- [09:57]
A
Well, especially this last time with the strike, it was basically two years.
- [10:00]
C
Right, right. And that just creates a constant drum of labor uncertainty that the studios have finally said, look, you know, this is our opportunity to change that. Now, whether SAG AFTRA or the Directors Guild will agree to synchronize with the Writers Guild on that SAG aftra, one of the things they want is the so called Tilly tax. In other words, if you use completely synthetic avatar rather than an actor, they want what they got in the commercials contract, which is to have the studios make A payment as though they were paying an actor, but pay it into the pension and health fund. That's a heavy lift for the studios. And if they to get that, they may have to agree to four years.
- [10:43]
A
Yeah, that will be interesting. And the upside there for the writers is that they do lock in these protections against the AI evolution. And you know, coming from at least a place of somewhat power here, who knows what this is going to look like in a couple years. It could be a free for all online. I talked to an agent who is in the writer actor world and he was also saying that stability means something in a world where the cable bundle continues to melt away. And salaries for on air broadcasters and you know, writers in the news and information world, those are all under pressure due to the declining economics of the cable bundle. And if they can lock this in for four years now, it actually might be a benefit to the members to get that rather than sitting on it for, you know, having to go back in a couple years when the cable bundle is even further deteriorated.
- [11:50]
C
That's certainly, you know, part of the sell, I think. You know, I mean, historically we haven't seen a lot of retrenchment in these contracts, interestingly, things that, you know, things that get taken away, but that's always a potential threat. And so, yeah, to lock that in for four years. And of course what management gets, let's remember, is that during that four year period, the writers can't strike. The key get that any management gets in a labor agreement is a no strike clause that during the duration, as long as a company adheres to the contract, the company can't be struck against. And of course the industry can't be struck against.
- [12:29]
A
The ironic thing here is that the WGA came to a deal with the studios faster than they came to a deal with their own staff who are still striking against the guild.
- [12:43]
C
It is ironic and it has an effect not just on the leadership of the guild within their headquarters building, but members of the guild are very split and it has created divisions among members of the guild is what I'm hearing as to the behavior of their own leadership. And how can we make this happen? It also helped to undermine the guild's leverage in the negotiations with the studios. Because if they had wanted to call a strike vote, let alone actually strike, they would have needed the labor. The effort of those staffers who are in fact are out on the sidewalk picketing.
- [13:17]
A
It's just a terrible message as well. If you're going in there guns blazing, say, saying pay us, we deserve a fair wage. They could say, well, what about your own staff? I mean, I've had a number of. I mean, this is like third rail stuff within the industry is that half the people on the studio side and a lot of the own. Their own agents for these writers are like, what are you guys doing? You guys ran the entire industry off a cliff in 2023, and now you're having a strike by your own people against you.
- [13:48]
C
Yeah, it's, you know, and. And contrast that with SAG Aftra, which is. I don't believe they're. They're. They have unionized workers as well, and I don't believe that they've ever struck. In fact, they. SAG AFTRA just recognized an additional bargaining unit among its employees.
- [14:05]
A
It's kind of unbelievable. And where do you fall in the camp of the writers did this to themselves versus the industry is doing this to the writers, and they are putting up a valiant fight to fight back because there is this big chasm in the industry. Many people blame the Writers Guild for the state of the industry right now, saying that if the industry had not gone on strike in 2023, things would be better. And they just took a slightly worsening situation and put gasoline all over it and burned up the industry. I don't fall in that camp. I think the economic indicators of where the industry was going were there before the strike. The end of peak TV was going to be very difficult and. And disastrous for a lot of people. The strike certainly didn't help, but they, the writers were grasping at the edge of the ledge at that point and had to do something in their mind. So I sort of. I guess I'm in the middle on this where I think that the writers didn't help the situation, but they are certainly not to blame for where the industry is right now.
- [15:17]
C
I am. I am actually exactly where you are on this. The. The people that I blame are the industry leaders 15 years ago who, who created their own competitor by feeding Netflix studio content and letting it bulk up and watching Netflix do In Plain Sight, you know, sort of what HBO did, leveraging from one step to another until it became a competitor. I had a conversation with someone at one of the presidents of Universal about 15 years ago, and I said, you know, Netflix knows what I like. Amazon knows what I like. You guys don't even know if I've watched your movie, let alone what I like.
- [15:51]
A
Yeah, you have no relationship with me.
- [15:53]
C
You have no relationship with me whatsoever. Doesn't that bother you at all? And I got a Condescending. Oh, Pet, pet. You don't understand how the industry works. Well, yeah, fine. And you know. And how's Peacock doing?
- [16:02]
A
Yeah, well, don't get me wrong, I don't think the writers are blameless here. And I've gotten some from writers for saying that. And the. I would love to see a full economic analysis of where the writers were pre strike in their demands and the negotiation, what they ultimately got and the economic impact of that three month strike. And I bet if we did that analysis, it would not be favorable to the guild.
- [16:32]
C
The, the trouble for labor is that they, their only real weapon, their biggest weapon is, is to withhold their labor and go on strike. And it's, it's a, it's a knife without a, without a handle. It cuts you as well as your opponent.
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A
I know. God, that was terrible time. And I think just people think back to that and where everybody is today and all the challenges the industry has and they were just like, no, thank you.
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C
Yeah, yeah, but what was their alternative?
- [16:55]
A
No, then I'm saying the alternative now is give up four years and get your health plan shored up.
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C
Right.
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A
The reason the health plan is in such a bad place is in part because of all those new writers that came into the Guild during peak tv. I mean, the Guild expanded significantly to accommodate all the writers that were working on all of these streaming series. And then all of a sudden that goes away by a quarter. And these people are still members. These people still have health care needs. The plan couldn't sustain that.
- [17:32]
C
Right. I mean, this is what it looks like. You mentioned down by a quarter. This industry production, depending on what metric you use, is down by 25 to even 35% compared to four or five years ago, 2019, pre Covid. And it just. This is what it looks like when things contract so dramatically and so quickly and it's not a pretty picture.
- [17:56]
A
Yeah, well, hopefully now they have a little bit of restart on that. And honestly, I hate to say this, but like, maybe there shouldn't be so many members of the Writers Guild.
- [18:07]
C
Well, you know, the Writers Guild, unlike SAG aftra, if you haven't done a certain amount of work in a four year period, you drop down to associate membership.
- [18:16]
A
Yeah.
- [18:16]
C
So I'm not, I'm not sure that that's exactly the, the issue, but.
- [18:22]
A
Well, four years, I mean, we're coming up on that for a lot of these people.
- [18:25]
C
Right.
- [18:26]
A
You know, after the correction. So I think we maybe will see a, a culling of the herd.
- [18:32]
C
I, I think that's true. And economically, of course, we already are seeing that. We're seeing just lots of people saying, I, I can't find work.
- [18:39]
A
So what does happen if SAG or the DGA doesn't agree to the four years? Chris Nolan, who is the president of the Directors Guild, he has been very skeptical that a four year deal would happen. Obviously now going into their negotiation, there may be added pressure to concede that. But let's say the directors and the actors stick to three years. How does that change the dynamic of Hollywood labor negotiations?
- [19:05]
C
Well, it would give management more power because it would be hard. For example, you would, you certainly wouldn't see a dual strike.
- [19:13]
A
Well, you could directors and actors, but the DGA rarely, rarely is that aggressive.
- [19:18]
C
The DGA struck once in its 80 year or 90 year history and that was for 15 minutes. So yeah, they're, they're definitely much less aggressive. And you know, you, you also would, as a practical matter, behind the scenes, the guilds coordinate to some degree on their, the positions they take on issues that, that have a commonality, certainly residuals, for example. This will make it harder for them to do that. Harder to set a pattern that can't be broken by the studios. It gives the studios more leverage. It definitely does. And that's, I mean, if you think about it, labor would be happier. If these are one year contracts and every year the studios have to come back begging for labor peace.
- [19:59]
A
What's the origin of the three years? How did they originally end up on that?
- [20:04]
C
Well, I've actually done a bit of study on that because I'm doing some historical work on the guilds. And these contracts started in the 50s and late 40s and there was no particular pattern and there was a lot of fighting over residuals and are we going to pay residuals at all and all that kind of thing. It wasn't really until the late 60s and really early 70s that a three year pattern got established. And it seems to have held pretty much into the 80s. And then from the 80s on, as I say, with the founding of the AMPTP in its current incarnation, you really did have a pattern. Bargaining, union, sauna, three year cycle, that sort of thing. Exactly how that number got chosen is, you know, sort of in the midst of time in history right now.
- [20:55]
A
It's probably like Lou Wasserman or someone just saying we decree three years every three years. And it just happened.
- [21:01]
C
Yeah, I mean, you mentioned Lou was Wasserman. It was very strong Universal Studios chair who really was the leader on the studio side of labor relations. In Hollywood for many decades.
- [21:14]
A
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- [23:42]
A
visit zepbound Lilly.com so where does this leave us? Where does this leave the industry? Are you confident in saying that this is the key domino that's going to lead to labor peace for the next four years or three? Possibly. Is this, you know, if I'm the head of SAG AFTRA and the dga, it sort of puts the fire under me, right?
- [24:10]
C
Well, it does. And look, it's been clear. I mean you talk about the next three or four years, the DGA is not going to strike. And they just, they don't. As I said, that's just not something that they feel they need to do except perhaps in the very most extreme circumstances. And SAG aftra, Duncan has been, you know, when you, when you talk to Duncan and look at his, at his interviews with regard to AI, you know, big issue, Duncan has consistently been sort of of the mind that look, we're not going to stop AI. We're not, we're not going to put things on the train tracks. We're going to try to, you know, make sure that the tracks are pointed in the right direction. So I don't think that there is a, you know, a strike oriented or even down to the wire oriented issue there. I think it's going to be if they're pushing for the Tilly tax at the end of the day to get.
- [25:07]
A
By the way, just to be clear, you're referring to Tilly Norwood, a name that we do not mention on this show because I think it's absolutely ridiculous how much press that that AI avatar gets. But it is something that they have latched onto.
- [25:19]
C
Right. She. She who shall not be named.
- [25:21]
A
Right, exactly. But they do want that payment if anytime you use a digital avatar.
- [25:28]
C
Right.
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A
And that could be pretty costly for the studios.
- [25:31]
C
Well, very costly for the studios. And also concerned that they disadvantage themselves in comparison with some upstart that's non union that just makes movies with, with avatars and doesn't have to pay.
- [25:42]
A
But that's happening anyways, isn't it? I mean it's all, it's all kind of silly in the sense that everybody's fighting within Hollywood and the innovation is likely coming from outside the building and someone is going to create the toy story of AI generated video and it's not going to come from the studios.
- [26:03]
C
Yeah. I mean when that happens and actually gains distribution and becomes economically meaningful, I mean that's the nightmare that you know, the monster under the bed that keeps Studio executives awake.
- [26:16]
A
Well, not just studio executives, I think everyone. Because none of these labor deals prevent a studio from picking up for global distribution an AI generated movie. Right. Like if that happens, they can do it. Now, there may be some political blowback and people might be upset, but some of these smaller studios, like a Lion's Gate or something else, if there's a great Toy Story esque movie out there, maybe this can movie that's happening or you know, this animated movie, maybe something like that catches the eye of a US distributor and all of a sudden they're in the AI movie distribution business, regardless of what the guilds think.
- [26:55]
C
Right. And regard, I mean, talent relations become an issue, you know, outside of the Obviously.
- [27:00]
A
But if I'm Chris Nolan, I say, okay, you know, Universal, if you would like to pick up this AI generated movie, please do so, but I will never work for you again.
- [27:10]
C
Right. But the flip side is the cost advantages could be so great that, you know, it becomes very hard for someone to, you know, just to say no to it. And it could be a startup distributor that does a deal directly with, you know, your friends at AMC and elsewhere.
- [27:25]
A
My friends, yes, they could. I know Adam Aaron would love that if they all of a sudden became the home for direct distribution and exhibition of AI generated movies that could fill the theaters and give them a little bit more leverage in their negotiations with Disney and Universal and the others. You know, if you don't want to pay us, our fair share on the revenue split will fill our theaters with AI generated movies.
- [27:52]
C
That's right. It's not enough that they're online.
- [27:54]
A
Yeah, well, that's if people are willing to pay for them.
- [27:57]
C
If they're not slop, and eventually they won't be slop, people will pay for them. I mean, people say, well, you know, some people say, well, people want to see real people on, on screen. But Toy Story is not real people. Animation isn't real people.
- [28:09]
A
Well, animation is different, I think, but you know, Yeah, I agree with you. I think that's where the innovation is going to be to start.
- [28:15]
C
Right. That's the nose under the tent.
- [28:17]
A
Yeah, we'll see. And there's nothing in this deal that prevents that, correct?
- [28:23]
C
I mean, not that we know of. And you know, I mean, the only thing would be if there are real restrictions on training data, it becomes harder. I mean, if you think about what studios own, they own a lot of scripts that were pretty much good enough to be made but never got made because of regime change, because of popular tastes, whatever, or they were close to good enough. Not quite. Right. Well, that material compared to what's out on the open Internet is all high quality training material. I mean, I think when you look at valuing a studio library, for example, you've got to look at the unproduced scripts all of a sudden and say, what could these be worth for AI training?
- [28:58]
A
That's a good question. I don't know. What are they worth?
- [29:01]
C
You know, I don't know. I mean, we'll, we'll see when, you know, when the next consolidation happens, how they're valued.
- [29:07]
A
All right, so you are, Greg Hessinger and the studio labor relations people. Are you sitting in your office in the Valley like clinking champagne this morning, giving out ivory back scratchers? Like what are the, are the studios celebrating this or is it too early to say who won here?
- [29:27]
C
I think the studios have to be celebrating the four years now, whether it's keychains or ivory background actors, I don't know. But you know, this is, it is a real win for them to get, you know, after again, as you say, it feels like it's just two years since we had the, you know, we're getting over the strikes and, and then the negotiations started again. To have that extra year makes a, makes a real difference. And let's point something out, which is that the, when the unions negotiate, it's usually majority rule on the, on the committee side. You know, at some point someone makes a decision. But when the studios negotiate, it's by consensus. So if, presumably if six out of the eight, say of the AMPTP agree on a point, but two of them don't, then that point doesn't get agreed on until it's been massaged to everyone's satisfaction.
- [30:21]
A
Yeah, and that's a key fact now because of the disparate business model of the various members. Amazon and Netflix are also members of the amptp. They have a very different business than say Universal or Disney.
- [30:36]
C
That's exactly right. And it makes senior's job, you know, really hurting cats. I mean, it's, you've got to keep these very disparate companies and companies that are in the, in the merge, in the, in the face of merger as well. Obviously the Paramount Warners.
- [30:50]
A
I know. And that's going to eliminate one of the members. Right. And there's a lot of different perspectives on that. Obviously Netflix that wanted that deal has a different perspective than maybe Disney might on that deal. And again, this agreement, I think the looming consolidation was a shadow over these negotiations. But nothing in this deal prevents that from happening or anything. It just kind of creates the sense of at least a little bit of labor piece right now.
- [31:19]
C
That's right.
- [31:20]
A
Well, I hope they all go out to the Cheesecake Factory and have, have some, you know, Moet champagne. Waiter, give me your second cheapest bottle of champagne. I'm sure they're all asking for that. Thank you, Jonathan.
- [31:31]
C
It's a pleasure. Thanks, Matt.
- [31:34]
A
We are back with the call sheet. Craig, first, a little accountability here from the holiday weekend. I took the over on Super Mario Galaxy at 185 and it came in at 191. So W for me there, although a little bit less than I thought, I thought it would get to 200.
- [31:52]
E
Yeah, you thought it would be an Easy smash to 200 but still a win. And then you came in, you took the under on the drama for 15 million and the drama was about 14 and a half. So you also barely got the W there.
- [32:03]
A
Oh, okay. So two W's for me. I'm sorry you took the over.
- [32:07]
E
I did.
- [32:08]
A
You believed in Zendaya a little bit more than it still did.
- [32:11]
E
Fine.
- [32:11]
A
Still good for I like I said, that movie without her grosses at least half that, probably less than half that. So good for her. All right. Have you seen what CBS is doing with Late Night with the Colbert slot that they are reprogramming after they summarily find.
- [32:30]
E
Can we say it's getting ridiculousness or no?
- [32:34]
A
No, not quite.
- [32:35]
E
This is, it's not quite a ridiculousness.
- [32:37]
A
This is a different model than the ridiculousness where you just have one show and you play it all the time. This is the time by models. So Byron Allen, who is a comedian, investor, kind of mogul, he's got a bunch of different businesses. He is very rich. He was in the mix for trying to buy Paramount.
- [32:56]
E
Right.
- [32:57]
A
He is doing a time buy agreement for the 1135 and 1235 slots on CBS. So they're going to shift this comics unleashed show which he's been hosting for years in syndication. It was airing later. It's now moving to the Colbert slot at 11:35. And then there is another show that Byron Allen produces and distributes called Funny you should ask, which is starring this former Extra correspondent John Kelly. It's a, it's similar to what they had with the Taylor Tomlinson show where they, they had that game show with comedians. But this is not a CBS produced show. This is them essentially renting the time slot to these two shows. Pretty sad moment for Late Night. And my prediction is this is only the beginning I think once Kimmel, Fallon, Myers are done, this is coming for the rest of late night. They're essentially going to be turned into infomercial slots where they will rent out the time to these other shows that are produced elsewhere and that they'll do a rev share and maybe an ad split or something like that where it just becomes financially more advantageous to give up and rent out the slot.
- [34:17]
E
It's incredibly depressing. And that may be the case for linear. But I do think this is going to just transition to streaming and the Fallon, Myers Colbert types are going to find homes on streaming services even if the linear late night model dies.
- [34:31]
A
You think so they're still going to try and the streamers are definitely going to try because they are all trying to build their ad model. And these are shows that come with ad breaks often. So there is a version of a late night show that at some point will work on streaming. I mean, the John Oliver show works on hbo. Max. Like they get decent numbers. Bill Maher does decent numbers there. But Netflix hasn't really had a huge breakout hit in the late night.
- [34:55]
E
They haven't really tried. Mulaney was more of a niche experiment, I would say that was not like a populist style show.
- [35:05]
A
It was not. But it was a big name and they tried with Islam Minaj.
- [35:08]
E
Yeah. But I would guess that they're probably waiting for one of these big names to open up and then would strike a big deal and make a big splashy announcement. I mean, Netflix is really into comedy.
- [35:16]
A
No. I wonder about Colbert. We never predicted where Colbert would go. He's now writing a Lord of the Rings movie, which for him. But that's not. I think people want to know if he's going to do a John Oliver style show or take his talents to Netflix or something like that.
- [35:32]
E
Yeah, I think they will all find homes. I hope they do. I still think they matter. And they are still culture drivers in.
- [35:37]
A
In a way. Yeah. It's just they got to figure out the model because it's all about making the model work. And currently these shows are so expensive on broadcast that the model becomes increasingly challenged. And NBC says Fallon is still profitable. And ABC has said that Kimmel still makes financial sense for them. He does a lot of other stuff for them. So I don't think that's happening anytime in the like immediate future. But eventually this model where you rent out your time slot and it's just a rev share arrangement that makes sense for these late night times. The audience just isn't there. It's just not how people are watching this stuff anymore. So. Okay, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Jonathan Handel. Producer Greg Horbeck Arter Matt Pevik. And I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.