Gosling, MBJ, Timmy, and the Biggest Movie Stars Under 50 Power Ranking

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: Gosling, MBJ, Timmy, and the Biggest Movie Stars Under 50 Power Ranking
Date: March 23, 2026
Guest(s): Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horlbeck (Producer)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Matthew Belloni, Lucas Shaw, and Craig Horlbeck debate and rank the biggest movie stars under 50 in Hollywood. Sparked by Ryan Gosling’s massive box office success with Project Hail Mary, they dissect what defines true star power in 2026: who can actually draw audiences to theaters, not just lead successful streaming releases. Using exclusive insights—including polling Hollywood producers—the hosts cut through recency bias and franchise inflation to settle on rankings that reflect the current power dynamics among younger stars.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Changing Landscape of Star Power

(03:20 – 06:07)

• With franchises still dominant, the hosts question whether it's time to bet more on original storytellers and talent versus IP. Ultimately, Belloni asserts franchises remain king: “I’m still betting on the franchises.”
• Project Hail Mary’s $140M opening is seen as a sign that certain actors (Ryan Gosling, specifically) might finally have legitimate box office draw outside of franchise or ensemble context.

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2. Ranking Criteria

(05:24 – 06:07)

• The list excludes streaming hits, focusing solely on who fills seats in movie theaters. Only actors under 50 are considered: “I don’t want to have the Cruise-Leo debate again.”
• The metric is not paycheck size or social media following but physical box office pull.

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3. The Consensus Top Picks

A. Michael B. Jordan — The New #1

(06:31 – 08:05)

• Belloni and Horlbeck both nominate Michael B. Jordan for the top slot, citing Oscar wins, franchise success (Creed, Black Panther), and “basically never missed.”
• Quote:
  “I actually think he is number one.” – Matt Belloni (06:38)
  “He doesn’t act too much. And what he does do works.” – Craig Horlbeck (06:57)

B. Ryan Gosling — Finally an A-Lister?

(08:42 – 10:24)

• Project Hail Mary is framed as his first true “star” opening. Belloni argues for a #2 ranking:
  “He’s in almost every frame… he’s now got a four-quadrant hit that is his name above the title.” – Matt Belloni (09:34)
• Horlbeck pushes back, noting previous flops and that “one movie doesn’t make you #2,” and prefers consistency like Chalamet:
  “La La Land was the last time where I was like, you are the star of a hit.” – Craig Horlbeck (11:24)

C. Timothée Chalamet — The Reliable Opener

(10:26 – 11:24)

• Chalamet is credited for making Wonka, Dune, and prestige dramas consistent hits, “doing the most with the least.”
• Belloni acknowledges Chalamet as always “part of our lives,” but prefers Gosling’s mystique:
  “Timmy is sort of part of our lives all the time… Gosling appears and then goes away.” – Matt Belloni (11:10)

D. Sydney Sweeney — The Breakout Star

(12:30 – 13:59)

• Sweeney is lauded for big box office on smaller movies: “$400 million for a low to mid-budget thriller… that is star power.” – Matt Belloni (13:31)
• The team debates her staying power, but agree she earns a top-four spot for now.

E. Margot Robbie & Scarlett Johansson — Ongoing Debate

(13:59 – 15:40, 20:27 – 21:20)

• Horlbeck leans towards Robbie’s “artistry and producing,” but Belloni insists box office matters more:
  “If you want to shock a franchise back to life, you put [Scarlett Johansson] in there.” — Matt Belloni (14:19)
  • Examples include rejuvenating Jurassic World, Exorcist, and upcoming Batman 2.

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4. Honorable Mentions and Second Tier Stars

(16:10 – 24:26)

• Zendaya: Highly valued by industry producers yet not a proven theatrical opener outside of franchises: “Her biggest claim to fame… which only got to like $90M.”
• Ryan Reynolds: Highly ranked but docked for excessive streaming projects diluting his theater pull.
• Tom Holland: Hasn’t proved pull outside Spider-Man; Uncharted cited as a moderate success.
• Emma Stone: Praised for dragging unusual projects to big returns (Poor Things, La La Land) but seen as indie-leaning now.
• Jennifer Lawrence: Once dominant, currently rebuilding after a break and a few weaker releases.
• Glenn Powell, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal: Each noted as having “a moment,” but haven’t sustained theater draw.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On defining today’s star power:
  “There’s like two types of actors now. You put them in big IP movies or you see if they can open original stuff. A lot of these younger actors have a better track record with left-of-center or original movies.” — Lucas Shaw (22:11)
• On Gosling’s recent surge:
  “If you had gone back a year, Ryan Gosling is not your number three choice… He’s in the category we just went through: ‘What about this guy?’” — Matt Belloni (28:52)
• On the debate between Scarlett Johansson vs. Zendaya:
  “Does my mom know who Zendaya is? Good question. My mom definitely knows who Scarlett Johansson is.” — Matt Belloni (30:05)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [06:31] — Michael B. Jordan as #1
• [08:42] — Why Gosling ranks so high (and why that’s controversial)
• [10:26] — Chalamet’s steady rise and marketing prowess
• [12:30] — Sydney Sweeney’s breakout box office
• [14:19] — Robbie vs. Scarlett Johansson
• [16:10] — The Zendaya debate
• [20:27] — Margot Robbie’s current stature
• [24:14] — Emma Stone’s independent success and prospects
• [26:12] — Jennifer Lawrence’s attempts at a comeback
• [28:39] — Why certain actors just miss the final list (Powell, Butler, Mescal)

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Final Consensus & Top 5 List

Matt Belloni's Top 5 (approx. [21:00])

1. Michael B. Jordan
2. Ryan Gosling
3. Timothée Chalamet
4. Sydney Sweeney
5. Scarlett Johansson

Craig Horlbeck's Top 5 (approx. [20:44])

1. Michael B. Jordan
2. Timothée Chalamet
3. Sydney Sweeney
4. Margot Robbie
5. Ryan Gosling

Secondary Tier (across hosts & by polling):

• Scarlett Johansson
• Ryan Reynolds
• Zendaya

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Additional Insights

• The criteria for stardom are shifting in the streaming era, but box office “butts in seats” remains the true litmus test.
• The hosts anticipate that Zendaya and Jennifer Lawrence are near a breakout into this list “if the right movie clicks.”
• The conversation repeatedly circles back to how Hollywood producers truly view star power: consistent box office over artistry, social metrics, or franchise alignment alone.

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For anyone following Hollywood’s evolving A-list, this episode offers a clear, current snapshot of who matters most—and why—in the business of movies today.

Transcript

[Podcast Host (Ad Read)]

This episode is brought to you by Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again Season 2 now streaming on Disney Charlie Cox at Vincent D' Onofrio are back and Kristen Ritter makes her highly anticipated return as Jessica Jones in an all new season. As Mayor Fisk tightens his grip on New York City, he makes Daredevil as his top target. Matt Murdock fights from the shadows, hoping to bring down Fisk's corrupt empire and reclaim his city. Don't miss Daredevil Born Again Season 2 now streaming only on Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

This episode of the Town is brought to you by the Madison, the new original series on Paramount. It's Academy Award nominee Taylor Sheridan's most intimate story yet. A New York City family is uprooted to Montana after an unexpected tragedy. In the quiet majesty of the Madison Valley, they confront love and loss, discovering resilience and the transformative power of family and the land that grounds them. Led by a powerhouse cast, Academy Award nominee Michelle Pfeiffer and Golden Globe nominee Kurt Russell. Don't miss the Madison, the highly anticipated new series streaming now only on Paramount. It is Monday, March 23rd. A great weekend at the box office with Project Hail Mary taking in 140 million worldwide. Biggest original movie opening since Oppenheimer. Lots of winners here including me. I took the over on the tracking. Sorry Craig. Maybe the biggest winner is Ryan Gosling, despite being a movie star for 20 something years now, has never really opened a movie on his own. But does that mean Gosling is now on the A list? Is he considered by Hollywood to be among the butts in seat stars to the extent that even exists anymore? We've discussed this topic before, but not in a while. There's been a lot of movement among these so called A list lately. Michael B. Jordan just won an Oscar and even more importantly for the business Sinners did 370 million worldwide. Sydney Sweeney's latest movie, the Housemaid grossed even more than that. Margot Robbie and Timothee Chalamet just did a little over and a little under 200 million respectively for their latest non franchise movies. And Scarlett Johansson keeps attaching herself to Big IP. All these stars are under 50, so it seemed like a good time for another discussion of star power. Got Lucas Shaw in here from Bloomberg and we're going to get into it. What's the new pecking order for actors? If given the choice and unlimited money, which star would producers and studio executives most want to bet on? In short, in 2026, who are the biggest movie stars under 50? From the Ringer And Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back to this very important episode.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Welcome to opening week of bas season.

[Matt Bellany]

I know it's exciting.

[Craig Horlbeck]

And welcome to the world in which Amazon is now one of the major Hollywood studios.

[Matt Bellany]

What a day. It took them 10 years, but they're finally in the big boy club. They have a global blockbuster in project Hail Mary. Good for them.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I already regret not picking this movie in our box office draft.

[Matt Bellany]

I know a number of people tweeted at me this weekend, who has it in the draft? It's like, oops, nobody.

[Craig Horlbeck]

It was risky.

[Matt Bellany]

We went with Disclosure day instead, so we'll see how that does.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I went with another Star wars movie and another Jumanji movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Have we learned? I know we're going to get into what we're going to do today, but do you think that we really need to reframe a little bit our thinking around just like betting on proven filmmakers and producers de emphasize franchises a little bit? Re emphasize kind of the behind the camera talent?

[Matt Bellany]

I think the short answer is no.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay.

[Matt Bellany]

With exceptions. I mean, it would have been nice to have sinners last year and neither of us was willing to bet on that. Would have been nice to have weapons. Neither of us bet on that.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Weapons was too small for the draft.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. You gotta, you gotta get to 400 million basically to be a player if you're, if you're picking a team with six players. Yeah. So, like, I'm still betting on the franchises.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Where do we think Project Hail Mary nets out? It's at 140. It's bigger domestically than globally or internationally.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. I think five is probably reasonable.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I think it's going to get to five.

[Matt Bellany]

I do. Yeah. It'll be like strong word of mouth.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

And the, the hold next week will be really small and we're heading into spring break time and I think it'll actually hold pretty well and get to 5. So that's, that is my prediction. I don't know. I, I, I mean, the numbers overseas are less bullish, so we'll see. And also, don't they not know what a Hail Mary is overseas? Probably not an American football term. I assume someone dealt with this.

[Craig Horlbeck]

There's also religious Hail Marys, but yes,

[Matt Bellany]

the Gosling thing, everybody talking about how he's the number one now, that caused a number of people to reach out to me saying, you guys need to do a re ranking or to revisit the topic of the stars that actually matter. So I polled 10 producers yesterday and asked them of this list, and I gave them about 10 actors. Who are your top three? And we're not going to get into this because I don't want to spoil it, but I'm going to reveal that I want to go through with you. And we need to settle on a top five.

[Craig Horlbeck]

And are we going one to five or five to one?

[Matt Bellany]

We're going one to five. The number one right now. We're going to start with the number one. Craig can be the arbiter on who makes the list. If we are going to debate this, because I think there's like three that are guaranteed and then there's some wiggle room there. And the criteria here is not streaming, not who gets paid the most, not anything like that. It's who is an actual draw for people to go to a movie theater. And with a caveat, they have to be under 50 years old. I don't want to have the Cruise Leo debate again. Brad Pitt, whatever. Those guys are in a different category. And it's much more interesting to debate who under 50 can get people to a movie theater.

[Craig Horlbeck]

We could have done under 60, and then we could have included Matt Damon.

[Matt Bellany]

But no, but if you do that, then it's Leo, then It's Ben over 60. Yeah, that's true, but. And so is Brad Pitt. But let's do under 50. If you are a producer and you have a choice of who to put your mov in your movie, who do you pick? All right, so let's debate number one.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

You want to go first?

[Craig Horlbeck]

Sure. He just. But this. This is one where it overlaps because he just won best actor. I have Michael B. As number one.

[Matt Bellany]

Ah, see, I was gonna pick him. I actually think he is number one.

[Craig Horlbeck]

We're not doing a draft. We can agree.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, I know. But it's less surprising if you get it first.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I looked at the. The filmography again yesterday, and it's just worth noting he has basically never missed,

[Matt Bellany]

well, without remorse would have missed had it not gone to streaming. That movie was terrible.

[Lucas Shaw]

But it.

[Craig Horlbeck]

But being a movie star is not just about, like, being great and charming in movies. It's also about picking projects. And he has been very conscientious. He doesn't act too much. And what he does do works, right. Sinners was him and Ryan Coogler and genre, but he is. He is that movie. He plays two different characters. He's in every frame. He has the Creed franchise. He has the Black Panther franchise. So we've seen him do both original work and franchise work. And sure, maybe without remorse wouldn't have worked, but if you do kind of one or two streaming movies for paycheck, for awareness, for whatever reason, I don't think that hurts you as an actor.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I think you can do one. Yeah.

[Craig Horlbeck]

We'll get to an actor who I think would probably be number two or three, but might be instead, like five because they've done a few too many streaming movies.

[Matt Bellany]

But no, mark Wahlberg's over 50.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I'm not talking about Mark Wahlberg.

[Matt Bellany]

So is Kevin Hart.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I'm not talking about him either. But by the way, how do you. How do you feel about the Kevin Hart roast?

[Matt Bellany]

I'm actually excited by it. I think it'll be good. Yeah. Shane Gillis is hosting. That'll be good.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Is there any reason to not have Michael B. As number one?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, the knock on him is that it's a lot of Coogler. Yeah. That he's aligned himself with Ryan Coogler, who's clearly a commercial filmmaker who clearly brings his own audience. And. And outside of Coogler, maybe not as much. Now, of course, the second and third Creed movies not directed by Coogler, so you could say, well, that's. But it was a franchise created by Coogler, so I don't know.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, no, it wasn't a franchise created by Coogler. It was a franchise created by Sylvester Stallone.

[Matt Bellany]

That is true. But also it was reignited.

[Craig Horlbeck]

But he directed the third one, so he does not get credit for not only being the star, but directing a successful movie.

[Matt Bellany]

And he's got Thomas Crown Affair coming. That's a big test because he's directing that one and starring, and they had some trouble on that movie. They replaced the lead actress in the middle of shooting, so that'll be a. Another big test. But I agree, he's the consensus number one right now. And this was reflected in the producers that I pulled, almost every single one of them. Now, of course, there's some recency bias there. He just won best actor, but he was on there. And honestly, this other. My, My other number one right now is Gosling. Oh, yeah, yeah. You got to put him on there. I mean, this is number one. Yeah, I'm putting him number one.

[Lucas Shaw]

This is.

[Craig Horlbeck]

This is talk radio. You just are. It's called recency.

[Lucas Shaw]

What are we saying? I thought you just said Michael B. Jordan was number one.

[Matt Bellany]

Because I'm. I'm treating this like a draft, I guess.

[Lucas Shaw]

This is not a draft. All Right. It's just your personal top five list.

[Matt Bellany]

Then I'm going to put him as two.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That's ridiculous.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, why not? Do you. I mean, he has now opened a gigantic movie. He's been a movie star for 20 years, women like him, men like him, and he's now got a four quadrant hit. That is his name above the title. He's in almost every frame like this is.

[Craig Horlbeck]

This is very likable. I just don't think he's a movie star at the same level. I, for the, I don't think that people go to, for the most part go to movies just to see him. And that has been borne out and that he's had a number of movies that haven't worked. His last big movie, the Fall Guy, was a kind of a disaster.

[Matt Bellany]

He had that 181 million worldwide.

[Craig Horlbeck]

It did fine. And I liked the movie, to be clear. I thought it was a good movie, but it was expensive and it didn't get where it needed to for that budget. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

We'll talk. Like, we'll talk about.

[Craig Horlbeck]

My number two is I think a Chalamet. I think people go to the movies to see a Chalamet movie. And he. Now, he may be a little overexposed right now, but.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. You don't think any of this stuff hurt him?

[Craig Horlbeck]

I think it hurts. But let's see what happens. His next big movie is Dune 3, which is going to be a big hit.

[Matt Bellany]

Marty supreme got to 175, almost 200.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Right. But a much, A much cheaper movie. He's got the Dune franchise that he is the face of. He, he, he made Wonka a hit. He's now made two adult dramas in the Bob Dylan movie. And, and Marty supreme work. Right. He's just every, he works it. The promotional campaign is a part of it. Whereas Gosling like kind of disappears for a while. I just, I just think he's out there.

[Lucas Shaw]

Timmy has done the most with the least.

[Matt Bellany]

I would say. Yeah. Gosling doesn't have social media, which is a factor, but I also think that makes him a little bit more special. He appears and then goes away. Timmy is sort of part of our lives all the time. And I would have put him at three.

[Craig Horlbeck]

The last movie before this that you would say he really opened was La La Land a decade ago and that

[Matt Bellany]

had Emma Stone as well.

[Craig Horlbeck]

The Fall Guy again, liked it, right?

[Matt Bellany]

No, I'm not looking at past.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Barbie was not him. Gray man is a streaming movie. First man didn't work. Blade Runner 2049 was a disappointment. Like La La Land was the last time where I was like, you are the star of a hit.

[Matt Bellany]

I agree. I'm not taking the old stuff. I'm taking the now.

[Craig Horlbeck]

But so you think one movie just immediately makes him the second biggest movie star?

[Matt Bellany]

No, no, no. He's been a star for 20 years, but now he's got his own big opening. He's got a Star wars movie next year. Shawn Levy must be loving these numbers because he's now got the hottest star in a Star wars movie that's coming out next year, Starfighter.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I just think the consistency of openings from Chalamet over the last few years makes him hard to beat.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, I understand the argument.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I have gosling in the 5, 6 range. This gets him back in the top 10. He wasn't in the top 10, but I think he's now, you know, in the 5, 6, 7 range.

[Matt Bellany]

My next one is Sydney Sweeney number three.

[Lucas Shaw]

I didn't.

[Craig Horlbeck]

You have her number three? No, you have her number four because you have Chalamet three. I thought you said.

[Matt Bellany]

No, no, you're right. Yes. I had number four for Sydney Sweeney.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I wrestled with whether to have her 3, 4, 5. Like, how do you compare the star power right now of Sydney Sweeney with Margot Robbie?

[Matt Bellany]

Great question.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I had Margot Robbie 3, but I felt like I was doing that just because I sort of respect her more as an actress and producer.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, it doesn't matter here. Doesn't matter here.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I know, like, if not for Wuthering Heights, I would have to knock her down further. But she did. She and Jacob Elordi made that movie work.

[Matt Bellany]

And that movie's at 235 for a costume drama.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Right. The question with Sydney Sweeney, I guess is like, we've now proven she can. She can open a particular type of movie. And that's part of being a movie star is like knowing your lane and owning it. But can she open a movie that's going to be like massive. Right. Like anyone but you. A couple hundred million dollars housemate. I think between three and four.

[Matt Bellany]

Said four and counting. That is my. That is my number. $400 million for a low to mid budget thriller like that is star power. I don't think she. She may not last.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Right. But she's another woman where people show up to see her.

[Matt Bellany]

She promotes on Social. She's a. She's young. People absolutely care about her. I think if I'm a producer and I'm putting her, trying to get an audience, I put her in the movie.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I Think you have talked me into moving her into my number three spot because I kind of wanted to do it, but I, I, I, I hesitated. You think she's undeniably bigger than Margot Robbie? Zendaya. Scarlett Johansson.

[Matt Bellany]

So here's a controversial opinion. Yeah. And this is contrary.

[Craig Horlbeck]

You don't think that Zendaya and Scarlett Johansson are movie stars.

[Matt Bellany]

No, Scarlett Johansson is a movie star.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay.

[Matt Bellany]

You don't think Scarlett Johansson. Scarlett Johansson is, is my number five then. Okay. Because she is like a defibrillator for franchises. You, you put her in there if you want to shock a franchise back to life. They did it with Jurassic World. They're doing it with exorcist Now Batman 2. Like she is. You don't think Quintessential value add. Yeah.

[Craig Horlbeck]

You don't think Zendaya is a movie star?

[Matt Bellany]

I do. I think she's a movie star. I don't know what she is for butts and seats yet. Her biggest claim to fame, challengers, that is challengers. Which only got to like 90. Something like. Huge win for a movie like that. But it was expensive and it's not 400 million like what Sydney Sweeney did. And, and it's funny because every single producer that I polled said, you got to put Zendaya in there. I mean, this is one producer, I'm quoting here, he said, my top three are Zendaya at her at number one, MBJ and Chalamet. Those three are events and they generally don't work in streaming. I would say Sydney Sweeney too, if it's in her wheelhouse, but I think she will get tired sooner than the others. A good point.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

But they have Zendaya at the top and like, yeah, she's in Spider Man. Yeah, she's in Dune. Do people go to those movies because of her? No.

[Craig Horlbeck]

The thing is, so it's not like she has had opportunities that didn't work. She has just other than, other than Euphoria and some of the more indie projects been a kind of a, a part of a larger franchise. Right. She's in the Dune movie. She's in the Spider Man.

[Matt Bellany]

Someone coming next week with the drama. It's her and Rob Pattinson. And if it works like Craig and I saw this movie, it is not as commercial as they are making it seem in the advertising. It's good.

[Craig Horlbeck]

It doesn't feel like it's going to be a massive, massive hit. I could be wrong, but let's see

[Matt Bellany]

if it opens to 20, 30 million. If it does, that's her.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, her and Pattinson, who is. We haven't even talked about as being on this. On this list, but that's because he was one of the biggest movie stars in the world and then decided he just wanted to make arthouse movies, which I respect.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Then he did Batman, and now I think the perception is. Is that he's a commercial star. I have him in the second tier of stars. I don't think he's in that top five or six. Yeah. But because he still has not proven himself as an adult outside of a major franchise. He wasn't Tenant, the Nolan movie. But that's you. You can't judge that one because it was Nolan and it was.

[Craig Horlbeck]

And it was Covid and.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

So. So if we back up here, let's rewind and kind of recap what we've done so far. So it seems like both of you are on the same page for Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Shalam, Sydney Sweeney, all being in your top five. The only disagreement you have is Ryan Gosling is in Matt's top five. He's not in Lucas's top five. Or maybe he's framed.

[Matt Bellany]

He's not even in your top five.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I don't know. So I agree. Jordan, Shal Sweeney, and then the other names I'm playing with. We talked. We. We kind of talked about Margot Robbie. We kind of talked about Scarlet. We haven't talked about Ryan Reynolds, who I think is still a pretty big movie star.

[Matt Bellany]

I know. I know. He's 49. He's. He's getting.

[Craig Horlbeck]

He's just. He's just sneaking in.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, he has, you know, Deadpool. He's got Free Guy did 331 million in the COVID era.

[Craig Horlbeck]

He was who I was alluding to where. He's done too many streaming movies. So it's harder for me to know because, like, I think he's a huge movie star, but if you go and do a bunch of Netflix and Amazon movies, it's. It's harder for me to judge.

[Matt Bellany]

And Apple, he just Spirited. Remember that? The Will Ferrell movie.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Don't even remember did Red Notice, which

[Matt Bellany]

is still the number one movie as number two movie.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Red Notice and Adam Project were big hits for Netflix. They just aren't actually. They weren't released in theaters in the same way.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I didn't pick him because if that kids movie last year didn't do well, that felt like.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That felt like a. A weird one.

[Matt Bellany]

I. Yeah, but he was the star. I think he downplayed it because he cared more about Deadpool Yeah. He's in an Apple movie later this year, Mayday, which may or may not even get theaters.

[Craig Horlbeck]

This is the problem is that. Yeah. So his last big movie is Deadpool, which was one of the. Was it the biggest movie of its year or. It was definitely one.

[Matt Bellany]

Deadpool and Wolverine was the biggest movie of that year.

[Craig Horlbeck]

And those movies work because of him. Right. Like the toes.

[Matt Bellany]

Do people want to see him outside of that? Well, Free Animal Friends, this, this big Warner Brothers movie that may or may not get pushed to next year, Free

[Craig Horlbeck]

Guy was the last test of it. And the answer to that was an unresounding. Was a resounding yes. Excuse me. But otherwise, he's done a lot of these Netflix movies, so it makes it hard for me to judge him. If you are casting for a big movie, who do you think is more likely to move the needle? Ryan Reynolds or Ryan Gosling? You've chosen Gosling.

[Matt Bellany]

Gosling. I think he's just more relevant now. I think Barbie did a lot for Gosling too. Even though no one people. He was an element there. People did see it in part because of him.

[Craig Horlbeck]

The Ken. Ken in general was an element. But.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. Yeah.

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[Matt Bellany]

Margot Robbie. So she's kind of getting the shaft here.

[Craig Horlbeck]

No, no, no, no.

[Matt Bellany]

She's going to get to. She's going to get weathering heights to 250 million.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I think what I would do is I'd have Margot Robbie four And Gosling five. And then I'd have Scarjo and Ryan Reynolds right outside of the top five.

[Matt Bellany]

I think I would pick Scarlett Johansson five and put Margot Robbie six.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That's fair.

[Matt Bellany]

I think Scarlett Johansson's a bigger star. I think she means that having come from Marvel, I think she means a lot to people.

[Lucas Shaw]

And Matt, that means you have Gosling, Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, Sydney Sweeney, and Scarlett Johansson.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Craig Horlbeck]

So we're just, just, we're basically disagreeing on Scarlet and Robbie.

[Matt Bellany]

And are you putting Ryan Reynolds in the top five?

[Craig Horlbeck]

No, I'm going to replace him with Gosling. I think. I, I think, I think you could go either or with those. I don't. Robbie, Scarjo and, And the Ryans are like the, the 4, 5, 6, 7, in whatever order. Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm kind of surprised about, Matt, your confidence in Scarlett Johansson. I don't know. You saying that she like revitalized Jurassic World? Is that even right? Like the third Chris Pratt one did a billion, this one did 800. I mean, it's basically just Avengers in Jurassic Park. Like, what original stuff has she done that works?

[Craig Horlbeck]

I don't think people show up for her.

[Matt Bellany]

You don't think so? Well, the, the, the test case for that was Fly Me to the Moon.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Which was a theatrical movie from Apple that totally bombed. So I hear you there, but because

[Lucas Shaw]

what's an original thing she's done the last 10 years that you think it worked?

[Matt Bellany]

I know everyone always cites Lucy and that was like 15 years ago now.

[Craig Horlbeck]

It was a fun movie, but yeah, that was a, that was a previous generation.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I, I hear you guys. I just feel like if you are a studio head and you are looking at your buffet of actors and actresses to choose from consistently, they choose her.

[Lucas Shaw]

There's like two types of actors now. There's like the, the people that you put in your big IP movies that are huge movie stars like Scarlett Johansson and like Chris Pratt and things like that. And then there's like the other layer where it's like Zendaya, where people would still put them above people like Scarlett Johansson in their list, even though there's the box office difference between the two of them is very wide.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, Zendaya has Spider man and Zun.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That's a good point. The track record of some of these other of the, some of the younger actors doing left of center movies or original movies is better than some of those slightly kind of bigger movie stars. Right. I think you put, you put Zendaya in a crazy Marvel movie It would do, really. If she's the star of a Marvel movie, I think it could do really well. We just haven't seen it.

[Matt Bellany]

Don't get me wrong, she's a value add, but I don't think that she has proven herself as a lure for audiences in a mainstream way.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, because she's not taking those. She's not making those movies.

[Matt Bellany]

Of course. Yeah, she's only 29 also, so we'll see. Tom Holland, just not on this list.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Got to see it in something other than Spider Man.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, we saw him in Uncharted. That did pretty well. But he's also made a bunch of. Like, he did a streaming movie, did a streaming series. He. He has not proven himself as a star outside of Spider Man, I would argue.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think there's. I think there's one person that needs to be mentioned that you guys haven't discussed yet.

[Matt Bellany]

Is it Emma Stone?

[Lucas Shaw]

Yes, it is.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. Yeah, I thought about her. I put her in the second level. She's 37. She's been in Indy land for so long now that, like, if we made a power list of Yorgos Lanthimos actors, she would certainly be number one. But we're not. So what has she done for us lately?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, I think the fact that she drags these insane movies to decent, but like, poor things, over 100 million, the favorite. Over 100 million. And then 10 years ago, la la land, 500 million, just those three things alone in the last 10 years, considering the subject matter, especially of the Yorgos movies, is remarkable to me. That Poor things is at $100 million. I think that's. That's worth discussing.

[Matt Bellany]

I get it. She's certainly the biggest lure for, I think, those types of movies, but she's got to do something a little more mainstream.

[Lucas Shaw]

To me, it shows that if she did, everybody would go, okay, well, then

[Matt Bellany]

we'll update this when she does.

[Lucas Shaw]

The way people discuss Zendaya in the same way, where it's kind of like a projection. I'm like, I don't know. We've kind of seen it with Emma Stone in La La Land, and she's dragging these art house movies to 100 million bucks.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay. Do you think that if we gave. Because we. To go back to Margot Robbins, Scarlett Johansson, if you gave Brian Lord truth serum, the head of CAA who represents both of them, and he could only represent one of them.

[Matt Bellany]

I think they are very different. I think that Scarlett Johansson is probably the dream client because she's like Jurassic Park. Sign me up, Batman. Sign Me up. Whereas Margot Robbie wants to build her company and build the kind of career where she is considered one of the all time greats. And it doesn't seem from her choices like Scarlett Johansson is motivated by anything other than relevance and fun and making money. Like you don't sign on to the Exorcist after the first reboot. Totally bombed. Unless you're like, what are they paying me? Okay, let's do it. You disagree?

[Craig Horlbeck]

No, no, I, I think it's totally. But, but that doesn't really answer the question. That just means they're different.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, they're different. But if I'm Ryan Lord, I love that. Are you kidding? You love the, you want the one

[Craig Horlbeck]

who just wants to make money and be relevant.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Can you imagine Margot Robbie when her, you know, when her reps are like, really? Like, you have all these opportunities, you're doing Babylon. Although I guess Babylon was the post La La land movie. So you do that for long term career. But you know what I'm saying? Like the last thing you want to hear as an agent is I want to do indie movies for no money. Yeah. And Jennifer Lawrence, just not on this list. She's only 35.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah. But her last movie was a disaster to die for.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, not to die. Die My Love, Die My Love. Yeah, Die My Love. But that, but that was a small indie movie. Like Sydney Sweeney had some disasters in the fall as well. And she did a, she did a mainstream comedy before that. She did no Hard Feelings, although that only got to 97 or 89 or something like that.

[Craig Horlbeck]

If no Hard Feelings had been as big as those two Sydney Sweeney movies, we'd have her in that conversation. But they weren't. Yeah, I think she, she's undeniably a great actress. And I feel like we're on the precipice of like a big Jennifer Lawrence moment. But I, I, part of me just.

[Matt Bellany]

She's doing the Leo movie.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I just think that she's really talented and funny and there's going to be the right movie, that it's, that's going to work and click and like blow up. I just.

[Matt Bellany]

But I mean, I think she got the Leo movie because Rick Yorn, her manager, put the movie together and also represents Leo. And I don't think that was a competitive situation. I think that was the package.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Right.

[Matt Bellany]

But she will. Yeah, she's 35 years old. She's going to have a ton of great movies coming out. But the question is, does she put butts in seats now? And I don't think she does.

[Craig Horlbeck]

No. She went away for a little bit and respected from a personal perspective, but it does make it harder as a. As a movie star. She got like, a little bit overexposed, went away, had a. Like, built her family, came back, and now has to sort of rebuild to where she was.

[Matt Bellany]

And then Glenn Powell just off. Off the list. Not. Not a factor. Right. He had his chance with Running Man. Didn't work.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah, he'll get another shot.

[Matt Bellany]

Because a year or two ago after Twisters, we were talking about him as the second coming.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah, he was having a moment, but,

[Matt Bellany]

you know, anyone but you showed his butt. Everyone was excited. Yeah.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, we can do a. We can do a kind of a career audit on Glenn Powell and Sydney Sweeney, like five years after anyone but you and see who made better choices and who became a bigger star. Sydney Sweeney certainly in the lead right now.

[Matt Bellany]

Austin Butler doesn't matter after Elvis, everyone said he was the next big thing. Does the Aronofsky movie didn't work. He's got a couple other things. He's doing Miami Vice with Michael B. Jordan.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I loved Michael Man's Miami Vice. And so if that is good, then maybe. But you need to have. You need to have a. A. You can't just have the one big hit.

[Matt Bellany]

The only other one that I thought was Paul Mescal, who is. I think he had his shot with Gladiator and it didn't really pop for him.

[Craig Horlbeck]

They're not that different, I think, from Ryan Gosling, where if they had a movie that opened to $500 million or not open to, but gross $500 million, we'd suddenly be saying, oh, maybe they're one of the five biggest stars.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. But you would not put Paul Mescal's name above Project Hail Mary and get

[Craig Horlbeck]

anyone interested if you had gone back a year. Ryan Gosling is not your number three choice. Right. He probably isn't in your top five. He's. He's in the category that we just went through. Like, what about this guy?

[Matt Bellany]

What about this guy, Craig? Where. Where do we land on the lists here?

[Lucas Shaw]

I think we basically have a clear top six, which is Ryan Gosling, Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, Sydney Sweeney, Margot Robbie, and Ryan Reynolds. And I think Scar Joe is maybe at 7, and I think that is kind of where we've landed.

[Matt Bellany]

Except I have her at five. Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm putting it on average.

[Matt Bellany]

You're the revisionist history here.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I'm saying because Lucas has higher.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, exactly.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm so. I'm saying, like that is kind of the top six or seven we have right there.

[Matt Bellany]

And among the producers that I pulled, the clear top three were Michael B. Jordan, Sha and Shalam.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Zendaya versus ScarJo is an interesting one.

[Matt Bellany]

It's not in my book.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Scarjo's got way more hits to her name, no question.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, does. Well, your mom's in the business. Does my mom know who Zendaya is? Good question. My mom definitely knows who Scarlett Johansson is.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay. I guess. Does your son know who Zendaya is from Spider Man?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Does he know? Does he, does he know who Scarlett Johansson is?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Black Widow. He watches Marvel.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay.

[Matt Bellany]

Very scientific.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

So scientific. All right. Thank you, Lucas.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Thanks, man.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, we are back with the call sheet. Craig, are you getting excited for the Yellowstone spin off Dutton Ranch? It's coming.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's my biggest blind spot in television is that I've, I've never watched a second of anything Yellowstone related.

[Matt Bellany]

It's not a blind spot. You are under 40 years old. You are not supposed to care about Yellowstone. Do you even know who these actors are in this? Do you know who Annette Bening is? I mean obviously you know Ed Harris.

[Lucas Shaw]

I know who Annette Bedding is.

[Matt Bellany]

Thank you, Matt.

[Lucas Shaw]

But, but I, I appreciated this. The minute long teaser for Dutton Ranch has Till I Collapse playing in the background.

[Matt Bellany]

So they know exactly what they are doing with this show. The two main characters, Beth and Rip are the favorites from Yellowstone. They just said, you know what, we're gonna run it back. We're gonna put them in Texas. They're gonna be the interlopers now and there's gonna be some locals who don't want him around. Will film the whole thing at Taylor Sheridan's ranch. Everyone makes a ton of money. Gold. Question is what the ratings will be for this. Because famously Yellowstone did not air on streaming. You had to watch it on linear TV on the Paramount network and then they put it on all their cable networks and then it went to Peacock and it was a whole debacle for this one. Curiously in the announcement they are premiering it both on Paramount network and on Paramount Plus. So I imagine some money exchanged hands with the nice people at Peacock to enable Paramount to do that. But the ratings for the finale of Yellowstone were gigantic on linear. 11.4 million same day viewers on Paramount Network and CMT and a bunch of other cable networks. Question is, how much higher will the premiere of Dutton Ranch be if at all including the Paramount numbers and this

[Lucas Shaw]

not being on Peacock and now on Paramount plus there's just. There's. I think there's 30 million more paid subscribers to Paramount plus than to Peacock.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, but remember, Peacock was not same day Peacock. You had to wait to watch it.

[Lucas Shaw]

Peacock is the Yellowstone Library.

[Matt Bellany]

Right, exactly. So you had. You couldn't watch it live. You literally had to watch it on the linear channel. And this is not happening until May 15th, by the way. But we're talking about it today because the trailer came out. I'm going to say that let's set the line at 12 million and I'm going to take the over.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Okay.

[Matt Bellany]

And you have no right to vote because you don't know anything about this.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I have no right to vote. I won't vote. I would. I would never challenge anything Taylor Sheridan does. He can keep cranking out shows. I don't know how he has the time, but every show that comes out seems to be bigger than the one before it. Everybody loves Landman.

[Matt Bellany]

We haven't seen the Madison numbers yet. The Madison is a little bit of a departure. It's more of a romance. It's hilarious. They had a premiere in New York City for the Madison and apparently it's like every five minutes it's him on New York City. In the show, someone says something negative about New York City and they did the premiere there and Taylor Sheridan shows up. Huge flex.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I mean, the. The Taylor Sheridan saturation. We have not reached that limit yet. He is still going.

[Matt Bellany]

No, clearly not. But. Clearly not. But it's coming someday. It will not be cool to watch Taylor Sharon, if it was ever cool. But. All right, I'm taking the over on 12 million for Dutton Ranch, the premiere. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lukas Shaw, producer Craig Horlbeck, our editor Jon Jones and I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.

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