Hollywood’s Inevitable Pivot to Vertical Video Is Here

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Hollywood’s Inevitable Pivot to Vertical Video Is Here

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matt Belloni
Guest: Hernan Lopez (Founder, Owl & Company; former Founder, Wondery)
Date: May 20, 2026
Publisher: The Ringer / Puck

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the world of vertical video — content designed and optimized for the smartphone's upright screen. Host Matt Belloni chats with media consultant and analyst Hernan Lopez about how vertical video has become its own audiovisual "language," disrupting Hollywood and opening a multibillion-dollar market. The conversation explores the format's rapid growth, unique business models, creative opportunities, who’s leading the charge, and how traditional media companies are responding.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Vertical Video: Not Just a Trend, but a Third Audiovisual Language

• Definition and Scope

  • Vertical video is more than micro-dramas or TikToks. It constitutes its own language, distinct from film and television.
  • “Soap operas are microdramas and vertical is television. There was film, there was television, and now there's vertical. They’re truly three separate audiovisual languages with their own talent systems, their own business models, their own aesthetics.” – Hernan Lopez [05:13]

• Market Scale

  • Vertical video generated $100 billion in revenue in 2025, double Netflix’s revenue, and that’s not even counting China. Reels alone (Facebook/Instagram) is on pace with Netflix.
  • Meta’s Reels grew from $10B to $50B in just two years. [03:43–04:18]

2. What Makes Vertical Video Different?

• User Habits and Device Orientation

  • The medium is defined by how phones are naturally held and used; vertical is the native, natural format for mobile.
  • “You don't see people flipping their phones unless they're on a plane or watching a sports event... this is the natural way of holding a phone and that by design it's easier, it feels more natural.” – Hernan Lopez [08:01]

• Evolution Beyond Social Video

  • Includes microdramas, but also sports, comedy, news, shopping — all delivered vertically.
  • E.g., NYT’s “Watch tab” and Whatnot app’s vertical live shopping (over $1B revenue). [06:38]

3. Lessons from Quibi and the Failed First Wave

• Quibi’s Mistake: Budget, Not Format
  • Quibi failed due to unsustainable budgets; user-oriented, low-cost content is now winning.
  • “Quibi…they spent too much money per minute of production … they also happened to launch just as TikTok was going viral” – Hernan Lopez [09:37]
• The Simplicity of Vertical:
  • Audiences aren’t interested in flipping phones or adapting to forced horizontal formats.

4. The Rise of Originals and Professional Vertical Content

• Emerging Creators and Studios

  • Chinese apps (Real Short, Drama Box) earning billions with vertical microdramas.
  • TikTok commissioning its first microseries (“Screen Time” by Issa Rae’s company).
  • Fox investing in Hollywater (parent of MyDrama), committing to 200 “vertical series.”
  • Peacock experimenting with vertical NBA broadcasts and launching vertical reality shows this summer. [14:20–15:45], [18:23]

• Vertical's Hollywood Adoption

  • Major Hollywood brands (Netflix, Disney, Amazon) actively developing or announcing new vertical initiatives.
  • Studios now recognize the need to “follow the user onto mobile” with original, platform-native vertical content.

5. Economics & Monetization Models

• Cost Structures

  • Traditional TV/film costs are unsustainable; vertical content is made for considerably less ($100K for 50 episodes in some cases).
  • Future likely includes a range: micro-budget microdramas to more ambitious, still-lower-cost productions. [12:24–13:20]

• Ad-Supported & Freemium Models Dominate

  • Meta monetizes vertical video ad inventory at 5x Netflix's rate per hour; huge base of advertisers with low barrier to entry.
  • “Meta monetizes…the viewing hours on their platforms at five times the rate that Netflix does.” – Matt Belloni [19:41]
  • Freemium dominates in China – e.g., Breadfruit app, combo of ads and micro-payments.
  • Subscription models (Netflix vertical content bundled for subscribers) predicted.
  • YouTube’s creator revenue-sharing model highlighted for vertical potential. [20:21]

6. What Should Hollywood Creators Do Now?

• Timing the Pivot

  • Lopez advises producers to experiment now: “There are so many firsts in vertical that have yet to be created…” – Hernan Lopez [26:24]
  • Waiting too long means missing out; going too early may mean low returns, but experimentation is critical.

• Genre Potential

  • Beyond microdramas: sitcoms, mockumentaries, live events, and more—shot natively and creatively for vertical. [27:26–28:33]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fundamental Shift:

  “This is a new language… with their own business models, their own aesthetics. Vertical is the newest.”
  —Hernan Lopez [05:13]

• On Vertical’s Market Impact:

  “Reels is making as much revenue as Netflix these days and everybody is chasing that engagement time.”
  —Matt Belloni [01:37]

• On Monetization Superiority:

  “Meta monetizes…the viewing hours on their platforms at five times the rate that Netflix does… [because] they have more ads per hour of engagement than anybody else. And those ads don't always necessarily feel like ads.”
  —Hernan Lopez [20:21]

• On Hollywood's Opportunity:

  “There are so many incredibly talented production companies, producers, directors, writers, actors in Hollywood who would love to have their next project meet consumers. And I think…anybody who's even a little bit curious about vertical as a new audiovisual language should try to experiment, to at least try to learn.”
  —Hernan Lopez [26:42]

• On Future of Content Length:

  “You can think of [microdramas] as two hour movies with 70 cliffhangers built in… my prediction is that microdramas or vertical series in general will get shorter, but the episodes won't necessarily be one minute or two minutes... a show could be literally a half hour sitcom just shot vertically natively.”
  —Hernan Lopez [27:43]

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Important Timestamps

• [03:43] – The true size and explosive growth of the vertical video market.
• [05:13] – Lopez's argument for vertical as a new audiovisual language.
• [09:37] – Why Quibi and Go90 failed—and what’s changed.
• [12:24] – Discussion of cost structure and production budgets for vertical content.
• [14:20] – How legacy players are testing vertical formats (e.g., Peacock's NBA broadcasts).
• [18:23] – Who’s funding originals? Update on buyers and platforms commissioning shows.
• [20:21] – Deep dive: Monetization differences between Meta, Netflix, and YouTube.
• [24:45] – Are high-end TV/film productions the losers in the new vertical paradigm?
• [26:14–28:33] – Advice to creators; experimentation and future genre opportunities for vertical.

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Takeaways for Listeners

• Vertical video is not a fad, but an emerging, fast-growing force reshaping Hollywood and content consumption globally.
• User behavior on mobile defines the opportunity—vertical is now the natural format to engage and monetize audiences.
• Hollywood studios and creators who adapt—and experiment—early can capture new ground in storytelling, formats, and revenue.
• The economics, genres, and business models around vertical video are still evolving—embracing nimbleness, innovation, and low-cost production is key to success.

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End of Episode Summary

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

Foreign. This episode of the Town is brought to you by Stars as Outlander Everything has led to this. The final chapter of the time traveling drama and cultural phenomenon starring Sam Heughan and Catriona Balf is only on stars. Vogue declares Outlander one of television's greatest love stories, and the rap raves Balf and Heughan have perfected this on screen relationship. Industry voters can access all [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by FX's love story, John F. Kennedy Jr. And Carolyn Bassett. The critically acclaimed series explores the undeniable chemistry, whirlwind courtship and high profile marriage of one of the most iconic couples of the 20th century, with Sarah Pigeon and Paul Anthony Kelly leading a cast including Naomi Watts, Constance Zimmer, Alessandro Nivola and Grace Gummer. Called a stunning portrait of love by Variety, Love Story is Emmy eligible in all limited series categories. Now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers. It is Wednesday, May 20. In the past month or so, Netflix, Disney, Paramount, along with Google and Meta, they've all promoted their vertical video products during earnings calls. Amazon, TikTok and NBCUniversal they announced new products as well as many of these offerings are in the very early stages. But the genre of short form content conceived and produced to be watched vertically on a phone is definitely a hot trend right now. By some estimates it's a hundred billion dollar a year business, about half of which comes from Reels, the short form video product that runs on Facebook and Instagram. Reels is making as much revenue as Netflix these days and everybody is chasing that engagement time. The Holy Grail is streaming, usually with user generated content like workout videos or conspiracy theory talking heads, but also from some professionally produced original shows. And our guest today thinks it's only the beginning. Hernan Lopez is an analyst and former TV executive. He's been on the show before. He believes vertical video is not just a new format, it's a third separate audiovisual language distinct from television and film, albeit with much lower budgets. And that debate over vertical video is the same one we had about streaming video more than 10 years ago. He he's hosting a Vertical media summit in LA on June 3, so I thought I'd have him back on the town to discuss this growth area, the genres at work beyond soapy micro dramas from China and whether people in Hollywood should be jumping on this bandwagon. From the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. Okay, we are here with Hernan Lopez, who is the founder of Owl and Company, the consulting and data firm. Former founder of. Well, you're never a former founder, but you are the founder also of Wondery, which you sold to Amazon and before that a veteran TV executive. Welcome back, Ernan. A returning champion.

[Hernan Lopez]

Thank you for having me. I'm very happy to be a returning champion.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so I wanted to have you on because wherever I go, people are talking about vertical video and it's become this kind of catch all. It's a way, I feel like it's for Hollywood people to understand what the current state of mobile video is. And micro dramas are thrown in there and social media content is thrown in there. And when you add it all up, it generated $100 billion in revenue last year. That's according to your stats, and that's not even including China. And just to put that in perspective, that would be double Netflix. Am I correct?

[Hernan Lopez]

That is correct. The data point that really made me land on needing to size the total opportunity was when Meta said that they were making $50 billion run rate revenue in 2025, the third quarter. And that was up five times in two years and a quarter. So in the same two years that all of streaming grew profits and grew revenue and pivoted to profitability, reels framed from $10 billion to as big as Netflix all by itself.

[Matt Bellany]

And that's just reels. That's just the videos you see, that's just real on the Meta platforms. If you go on Instagram and there's a video that pops up, it's just short form video. And that does not include YouTube shorts as well. Correct?

[Hernan Lopez]

That's right. When you zoom out to the vertical video category, the way I start to think of all of it as one audiovisual language is when I realized an analogy. Many people were conflating microdramas with vertical video or TikTok videos with vertical. And the reality is all of those are part of vertical video. Think of it. If you had been watching a soap opera in the late 40s, you probably would not have imagined that the same box would give you the Super Bowl, Game of Thrones, the Simpsons, South Park. So the analogy is really soap operas are microdramas and vertical is television. There was film, there was television, and now there's vertical. They're truly three separate audiovisual languages with their own talent systems, their own business models, their own aesthetics. A vertical is the newest.

[Matt Bellany]

But why is this a new what you call audiovisual language? Isn't this just a fancy way of referring to Social video and clip culture and YouTube and everything that we've been talking about for 20 years since YouTube became popular. Like, why is this a whole separate category?

[Hernan Lopez]

The way I started to think about it in those ways as a separate category is when I realized that around the world for the last four years, the premium streaming apps, the Netflixes, the Disney's, the Amazons of the world, all around the world had been losing time spent on mobile, just as they were still gaining subs and they were gaining time spent on television. Whereas the apps that were leaning on vertical, either because they were vertical first, like TikTok, or they were incorporating more vertical video like reels into both Instagram and Facebook were gaining time spent. And it really made me realize that this is not like a transition from black and white to color, from standard definition to high definition. This is a new language that includes today, yes, microdramas on all those short form videos, but also includes vertical news, vertical sports, vertical comedy, vertical reality. For example, when the New York Times launches after many different attempts to get into video, the Watch tab, which is native, originally produced in vertical, all of a sudden people start to engage. There's this app called Whatnot that pioneered vertical live shopping. It was making a billion dollars in revenue in 2025 on over $11 billion in valuation. All of those are different formats within the major category, which is vertical video. And that category is just getting started. It's not even 20 years old.

[Matt Bellany]

So you're saying the mere orientation of the video is separating it from the competitors in traditional video, the fact that it is vertical is what makes it appealing.

[Hernan Lopez]

That is correct.

[Matt Bellany]

But why? I mean, this is like, this is like saying that, you know, something that has a different aspect ratio is going to be more popular. Is it just that we are so ingrained in the use of our phones that it has to conform to what we are used to on our phones in order to become popular now?

[Hernan Lopez]

Yes, the short answer. When I was at Fox, I kept telling people that just because we were able to convince people to watch movies on television screens, we thought we will be able to convince people to watch TV shows and movies on this tiny screen. And for a while we did. People were watching television shows and movies on a small screen until they started to come up to find alternatives of quality that made the job of getting them entertained. And all of a sudden today you don't see people flipping their phones unless they're on a plane or unless they're watching a sports event or unless they're playing. Again, this is the natural way of holding a phone and that by design it's easier, it feels more natural, your phone is more balanced. So when people started to capture first photos, then videos that way, that gave rise to the new age of vertical as its own language. And now what we're seeing is the professional layer where studios, where creators, where entrepreneurs are coming together and are putting that format that was initially a consumer discovery into a business and an aesthetic and a new language.

[Matt Bellany]

So obviously this is not new. There was quibi, there was go 90, there was a previous generation of these vertical video apps. Those failed. And I believe you believe that it's not that they were bad products, it's just that they had bad business models.

[Hernan Lopez]

I think Quibi, it's been fairly talked about how they spend too much money per minute of production relative to what today vertical apps of all kinds are spending. And they also happen to launch just at the time that TikTok was going viral in the US and taking all of the enthusiasm from consumers who are discovering something new, Go90 and other apps that have tried to go into both vertical and horizontal, they're finding that it's not as easy to convince somebody to turn the phone around for a number of reasons. The apps that are gaining the most time, in fact, this year, I looked at the sensor tower data again last week, Instagram number one, then TikTok, they're the ones who are vertical first or leaning more of their time spent on the product into vertical.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, but what's interesting is that those failed and you, you point to the cost of the content and obviously reels and YouTube shorts like they are heavy on user generated, quick, cheap, almost no cost to make the the content. But you also believe that there is a place for originals on these formats, that vertical video could give rise to the Netflix of vertical video or some version of a quibi or go 90 that does make economic sense. How do you reconcile those two trajectories?

[Hernan Lopez]

Primarily because the business case has been proven first in China, but, but also globally. There are two apps, Real Short and Drama Box, that even though they don't report numbers, they're on track to make a billion dollars in revenue out of primarily vertical videos of several genres, including microdramas. There's a second universe of apps, TikTok being the probably latest example that is going to get into, has already commissioned their first original and launched first original Microserius, a show called Screen Time, produced by Issa Race Company and in the last five weeks alone you had Netflix, Disney, Amazon, NBC, TikTok, Paramount all those companies either announcing new vertical products or launching new ones or talking them up in their earnings release. So you'll have three different layers of apps that will support professionally created at different budget levels, but professionally created scripted content.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that's the question is what cost? Because the micro dramas we did a whole episode on this, you can find that episode we did with realscreen. But the cost of those shows is minuscule compared to what Netflix drops traditionally spend. So what is the cost structure going to be for the vertical video product produced by these traditional streamers?

[Hernan Lopez]

I think they're all getting very carefully into the space realizing that they cannot make the mistake that Quibi made and other apps made of trying to spin their way into relevance by throw in big budgets, a project that were originally created for the television or screen of the movie and then got adapted into vertical. I think you're going to see an evolution very much like in streaming. We did not see the 20, $30 million per episodes at the high level that we're seeing today 10 or 20 years ago. There's going to be a different level of appetite for spending by the different kinds of players depending on what the goals are. And I think what we haven't yet seen is how the market is going to evolve. While most of these apps migrate into a hybrid model of advertising, supported and subscription, today most of them are selling shows individually through in app purchases. What you're going to see in TikTok is that their model is, is primarily ad supported and so is in a number of other apps that they own around the world. And for the Netflixes and the Disney's when they do get into original production, I would anticipate that their shows obviously without knowing exactly what the strategy, but I would anticipate that their shows are going to be included in their overall subscription.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh yeah, of course they're going to want to do what Reels did, which was bolt on to an existing addictive social media app and then become the video component of that app. I mean that seems to be what the other players are looking at and saying, okay, if you're watching Netflix and Disney at home with your family at night, well maybe you can, we can follow you around all day and you can watch the vertical versions where when you're on the subway or you're waiting at the dentist and then, then we will capture more of your viewership time.

[Hernan Lopez]

I think not only time, they also are trying to capture frequency. All the apps are realizing that in order to deepen the level of engagement, it's not just about sheer watch time. Netflix has spoken about the quality metrics. Spotify has spoken about number of days per month. Getting more days per month requires a mobile strategy. And to win in mobile, you really do need to have vertical. And another example, Peacock has announced that they're doing vertical live NBA broadcasts. They're just running some tests now. If you go to the app, you have to catch the game, but those broadcasts are produced live, which is one of the most difficult things to do. And. And they're exclusively created for the vertical experience.

[Matt Bellany]

That's interesting. They should do a vertical version of SNL and other live events where you could watch it on your phone. Same version, but just a different presentation.

[Hernan Lopez]

If you watch Instagram feed, the clips are actually adapted to vertical, right? The way that they organize the screen.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, right. Yeah, you're right.

[Hernan Lopez]

Okay, they're already doing it.

[Matt Bellany]

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[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so which of these social platforms is going to invest in original content for Vertical? That's what our audience wants to know. Who can I sell a show to?

[Hernan Lopez]

TikTok is already doing it. In fact, at the Vertical Media Summit, Don Yang, the head of media entertainment partnerships, will be joined by the head of production of Issa Race company to talk about how they're inviting creators and Hollywood producers to submit projects for production. And they want to be the place where, where people go to get shows greenlit. But all of the other apps, from Real Short to Hollywater to Drama Box, they're all commissioning shows. Fox just made an investment into Hollywater, the parent company of my drama. And as part of that investment, Fox itself is making 200 micro series. And again, they use the word vertical series because they're not all dramas. So you're going to see a year from now a much bigger universe of buyers. Peacock just announced two vertical reality shows. They're going to premiere in the summer. I think the number of buyers is going to increase very quickly. The question is how quickly the genres expand and to what levels the budget get to and what are the business models.

[Matt Bellany]

That is interesting. The monetization is the big issue here because you have talked about this and others as well. Metta monetizes the viewing hours on their platforms at five times the rate that Netflix does. At least that was in the fourth quarter of last year.

[Hernan Lopez]

That's correct.

[Matt Bellany]

Why is it just the volume play? Because every, you know, we're taught to believe that premium can command higher advertising rates and Netflix has the subscription element. So why is it so much more profitable? Is it just the content? Cost is nothing.

[Hernan Lopez]

I'm talking about revenue before you even go into cost. But on a revenue per hour basis, Meta monetizes Monetizes, as you said, five times the rate of Netflix according to our estimates, because they have more ads per hour of engagement than anybody else. And those ads don't always necessarily feel like ads. They don't feel like interruptions. And they pair that with an ad stack that allows tons of clients who advertisers who had never been into able to create video ads. And now through the suite of tools and targeting, they're able to produce video ads. Those $50 billion run rate come from over 2 million advertisers that are using their generative video tools. But again, that's just meta. YouTube is also monetizing very effectively. They're not in the. They're monetizing and YouTube actually does have a partner share program that pays directly to the creators a share of the revenue generated by the ads as as well as the music owners share of the licensing revenue?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, we had Kareem Rama on last week, the Subway Takes guy and he was specifically explaining why he's taking his new show from TikTok to YouTube and making it longer. Because of the economics, it's just so much better on YouTube. But that's YouTube's kind of push into the originals space. They are now promoting this concept of there being shows on YouTube that you can buy into as an advertiser just like the NBC primetime lineup. And they are kind of seems like they're trying to have their volume cake and eat it too. With the more premium and more bespoke market of selling directly into shows, do you think that that will find its way into the vertical universe as well where you will be able to as an advertiser buy into particular shows and as a content creator you'll be able to have something distinctive on these platforms where you are not just joining the millions of people producing content, but you will have a specific show with maybe even some marketing, maybe even some guaranteed, you know, push push alerts or something that can help you find an audience.

[Hernan Lopez]

We have a YouTube speaker at the summit and that's one of the questions that I'll ask him. I don't know how much of their, I think the announcement that they just made is specifically about television. Their push, very successful push to get into television sets and get advertisers who already see them as the number one platform on mobile to, to also see them as the number one platform on television. But they have lots of optionality by being multi platform, multi format, playing from short form to long form, for example, they were able to leverage their position in everybody's algorithm. The fact that they know what you're watching in the morning and during the day so that when you come home at night the algorithm is likely to serve to use something that they know you're interested in. And I think that's one of the reasons why they've grown so much in total time spent over the last several years.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, and that's the holy grail here. It's all about time spent. Now it's, you know, that is how these services are judged. That is the competition between Netflix and YouTube. It's not do you have a hit show? It's what percentage of overall video usage are you capturing? And when that becomes the metric, the entire ecosystem changes. Because you have to think volume. You have to think, what am I going to put on my service that's going to be like a strong middle reliever and just eat up innings? And it feels like all of these services have now recognized that. And they're going to podcasts, they're going to these short form, low cost, vertical videos. It seems like the loser here is high cost, professionally produced, traditional film and tv. Am I wrong?

[Hernan Lopez]

I don't think that they're the loser. Because if you hear Netflix talk, they're very deliberately now talking about the quality metrics and about how not every view and hour is the same. Something they had predicted they would start saying, partially because it is true. An hour of an NFL game is not worth the same of an hour of short form. Necessarily produce video of any quality.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, if you talk to Ted Sarandos about this, it drives him absolutely crazy that he's getting his butt kicked by YouTube because so much of that volume is literal garbage. It's people listening to ambient noise on YouTube. It's dog videos. It's nothing. You know, they are being judged against a service that will put anything on. It's really tough.

[Hernan Lopez]

I think it's tough to compete. A lot of videos on YouTube, I think everybody agree, are pretty good and they do a very specific job for you when you want to watch it. And they are great at serving consumers throughout the day. Something that I think Netflix and all the other streamers are recognizing. Part of the push to get podcasts on the platform is precisely so that they can get people to start thinking about Netflix in the morning, whereas before they used to think about it at night. I know you guys talked about a little bit about that yesterday.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, so I'm Joe Blow, TV producer. Do I drop everything and try to get into Vertical Video right now, or are the economics not quite there yet?

[Hernan Lopez]

It is one of the most difficult questions about when to get into something. The timing has to be right. If you're in too early, you will bang your head against the wall and you'll feel that the market, the budgets are not for you. If you're too late, you'll miss out on learning. You'll miss out on experimenting. You'll miss out on being the first reality show, the first sitcom, the first mockumentary. There are so many firsts in Vertical that have yet to be created. And at the same time, there are so many incredibly talented production companies, producers, directors, writers, actors in Hollywood who would love to have their next project meet consumers. And I think there's so many different business models that anybody who's even a little bit curious about vertical as a new audiovisual language should to try to experiment, to at least try to learn.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, congrats to Issa Rae for getting in there early. And congrats to all of these micro drama producers who are making 50 episodes for a hundred grand. And people are watching. They're paying too. They're doing the freemium model. I mean, do you see freemium taking off?

[Hernan Lopez]

Freemium is now the main model in China where the single biggest apps called Breadfruit is owned by B now accounts for about half of the total revenue in the country. Advertising does, as opposed to subscription and in app purchases. And another misconception that short dramas are short form. In reality, you can think of them as two hour movies with 70 cliffhangers built in. That's exhausting to write. And my prediction is that micro dramas or vertical dramas and vertical series in general will get shorter, but the episodes won't necessarily be one minute or two minutes. I can envision how a show could be literally a half an hour sitcom that just is shot vertically natively.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And you get the first five for free and then you maybe pay with micro payments or whatever to get the rest.

[Hernan Lopez]

Or it's all included in your Netflix subscription.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes, exactly. Or you get it as part of your subscription. Well, this is all fascinating. Good luck with your event June 3rd on. Is it on the Sony lot? Where is this event?

[Hernan Lopez]

It's out there w Hollywood.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, good luck with the event. Thanks for coming on the show. Appreciate it.

[Hernan Lopez]

Great. Thank you so much. Great to see you.

[Matt Bellany]

We are back with the call sheet. Craig, this is a pretty good season for snl. I would say. Like, didn't love the finale. Thought they kind of wasted Will Ferrell a little bit. But overall, pretty good season.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, I think we've seen a couple people break out. Ashley Padilla is now, I think, one of the funniest people we've had on SNL in a long time.

[Matt Bellany]

Agreed.

[Craig Horbeck]

And I think that's been a huge part of this team season.

[Matt Bellany]

I like that new guy, Jeremy Cohan. I think he's funny. The Tucker Carlson thing is amazing. Yeah. Yeah. So it's interesting because last year at this time we were talking about an exodus that SNL was going to clean house after the 50th season. And they kind of did. Kind of didn't they? Had a few big exits, added five people heading into this offseason. I know it's early.

[Craig Horbeck]

Don't forget Bowen Yang left halfway through this season.

[Matt Bellany]

He did. That's huge. Flex. What a flex. Leaving halfway just like, yeah, you know, I was in, but now I'm out. Nice to see you guys. I'm gonna go do my award show. I think my prediction this year, I know it's early and I know Lauren doesn't even think about this stuff until July, August. I think SNL is going to come back next season pretty much the same as it was this year. My prediction is no big exits, big turnover, maybe one or two. I could see Mikey Day leaving. The dude's 45 years old. He's been on there a long time. I could see a couple others that have been sort of Pandemic era cast members moving on. But for the most part, I think all five new cast members will get picked up and most people will be back.

[Craig Horbeck]

I agree with you. There are currently 16 members on the cast, which is still probably too big, but. But I do think the featured players are all pretty good. And it's rare that I think, like, I think Ben Marshall is pretty funny, the tall guy. I think he's had a great season. He was on the Please Don't Destroy group and then became a cast member. I think you still need Keenan and Mikey Day because they're still like the stalwarts that you can just throw in any sketch. There's no guy behind the two of them that can be the dad in a sketch right now.

[Matt Bellany]

Maybe. I know, but at some point, man, like, you gotta turn it over. The whole secret of the show is reinvention. And we've had the same Weekend Update guys for a decade. We've had these people who are.

[Craig Horbeck]

Over a decade.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, we've had people who are like, fine, like never gonna be on in the hall of Fame, but somehow last 10 years on the show, like, I don't know, man. I think it's time. I know Mikey Day writes a lot and the that is probably a plus, but it seems like it's time.

[Craig Horbeck]

Do you think the struggle in theatrical comedy is and just the struggle in comedy in general is causing cast members to stay in SNL longer? Cuz it used to be you came, you blew up, you left, you became a comedy movie star. And now that's not really a thing. And because of even just like the way SNL is filmed, the culture behind it, it's not as insane anymore. Do you think these people are treating SNL more as like day job that you can do for a decade plus rather than you get in after you get in for three years, you get out and you become a movie star.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, well, clearly that's happening. I mean, we. We've talked about this before. You have cast members who now go off and do other shows while they're on snl. Ad Bryant had her Hulu show get picked up, produced, and then canceled while she was a cast member, and you can do that now. And these people all have influencer businesses. They tour. So social media has given them platforms outside the show. Like, it's. It really is something you do for 20 weeks a year, and then you go off and do something else.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, and you can go do standup in the summer and stuff like that. But. But it does feel like no one is leaving SNL to become a movie star anymore.

[Matt Bellany]

No, it's just not the same business as it was.

[Craig Horbeck]

So I think the incentive to leave is not as great as it used to be, because what's really out there, you'd probably just go back to doing standup and making content on whatever channels you have.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, no, no. This is not a question of who wants to leave. I mean, Bowen Yang's interesting because he has a film career, and I don't know how much of a star he'll end up being, but he certainly has as good a shot as anyone. Yeah, it's just not the same where you have these guys who have to, like, fend off Hollywood to stay on the show. That's not happening anymore. And to the extent that you do fend it off, you can still do it, go off and do your movie. Like, Lauren is so much more allowing of that kind of stuff. He's just. It's just not his hands. I mean, we saw with the press that these SNL people were doing this year. I mean, there was a blitz towards the end of the season. There was pieces in gq, Vanity Fair, the trades were doing pieces like New York Magazine, all these. All the press that this cast was doing. Lauren never used to allow that he would keep a tight hold on these people, and now it's just a different era.

[Craig Horbeck]

The only person I think could get a little itchy and want to leave because of. Of a path to stardom is Marcelo.

[Matt Bellany]

I know. Yeah, I figured you would say that. We saw Marcelo outside the Chateau that one night. I forgot what party we were at. That guy looked like he thought he was a movie star for sure.

[Craig Horbeck]

I love that you said you didn't say he looked like a movie star. He said he looked like he thought he was a movie star.

[Matt Bellany]

He looked like he Thought he was a movie star. And I could see him being like, what are you talking about? I just sold out the Hollywood bowl and for a Spanish language standup tour. Like, I don't need this anymore. Now, hopefully his reps will talk some sense into him, but I have a feeling the opposite will be the case. They'll say to him, you do a global standup tour, you can make $50 million in a year, or you can go back to your little sketch comedy show.

[Craig Horbeck]

I could see him in a successful sitcom. He could have his own Abbott elementary or what have you.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure. But do you see him as a movie star?

[Craig Horbeck]

I don't see anybody, especially as a comedy movie star that doesn't really exist. So I guess by default, the answer is no.

[Matt Bellany]

Nate Bergazzi, the biggest comedian on the planet right now, he's got a movie coming out in a couple of weeks, and I saw the tracking. It's 10 million. Like, that's not the same as the days of Will Ferrell and Adam Sandler opening movies. Huge. So, yeah. All right, bottom line, no big turnover on snl. That. That's the prediction.

[Craig Horbeck]

I think it's the exact same cast.

[Matt Bellany]

I think there may be one or two here or there, but for the most part, I think Jane Wickline could be on the firing line. I think, you know, maybe some of these older ones, they could be gone, but we'll see. Okay, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Heron Lopez, producer Craig Horbeck, our Matt Peck. And I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this week.

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