IMAX Suitors and Why Netflix Put Fincher in Theaters

Summary

Podcast Summary:

The Town with Matthew Belloni
Episode: IMAX Suitors and Why Netflix Put Fincher in Theaters
Date: May 27, 2026
Host: Matthew Belloni (Puck, The Ringer)
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horbeck (Producer)

---

Overview

This episode delves into two hot Hollywood stories: the potential sale of IMAX and what it means for the industry's future, and Netflix’s strategic move to bring David Fincher’s highly anticipated film into IMAX theaters. Host Matt Belloni, with guest Lucas Shaw, explores the motivations, industry dynamics, and possible ripple effects of these developments, revealing behind-the-scenes insights on studio calculations, exhibition trends, and streaming vs. theatrical release strategies.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why IMAX Is Up for Sale Now

• Market Timing: IMAX’s value is at a recent high, the movie business is rebounding post-pandemic, and premium large format screens are outperforming the rest of the exhibition sector.
  • "This is the company that has been sort of formally or informally available or for sale for a few years now. It's not been a good time to sell yourself as sort of a movie business when the larger business has been in crisis or uncertain..." —Matt Belloni (04:20)
• Business Model: IMAX licenses tech and programming, doesn't actually own most theaters—less risk, more flexibility.
• Industry Trends: PLFs (Premium Large Formats like IMAX) now account for 16% of U.S. ticket sales, up from 13% in 2021. (01:34–04:10)
• Potential Suitors: The IMAX buyer will likely be private equity or a tech partner rather than a traditional studio or exhibitor.
  • "It feels more like a private equity bet to me than a studio bet." —Matt Belloni (08:46)

2. IMAX Buyers: Who and Why (Or Why Not)?

• Theater Exhibitors: AMC, Cinemark, and Regal unlikely suitors—lack of funds, internal competition, and business overlap issues.
  • "It seems hard to believe they’re going to pull off a deal like this. It would be pretty remarkable if AMC did." —Matt Belloni (08:52)
• Studios: Disney, Universal, Sony could technically buy IMAX post-Paramount Decrees, but there's little strategic incentive.
  • "Why would a place like Disney or Universal do this? And why would they not? ...I can't really come up with a compelling reason for why they would." —Matt Belloni (11:52)
• Tech/Media Companies: Netflix is discussed but seen as an implausible buyer—being a hardware/exhibition tech owner doesn't solve their core theatrical windowing problem.
  • "The Netflix argument makes even less sense to me." —Lukas Shaw (14:25)
• Private Equity: Most likely buyers; could seek a tech play or even use IMAX as a prestige acquisition.
  • "I think most likely it will be private equity or some kind of technology partner that already has a relationship with IMAX." —Lukas Shaw (15:29)

3. Industry Dynamics: Studios, Windows, and Exhibition

• Studios and Tech: Discussion on why studios should be investing in filmmaking tech, not exhibition tech layers.
  • "They are supposed to be at the front lines of technology when it comes to producing and distributing their movies. They are not, when it comes to movies, fundamentally exhibitors." —Matt Belloni (13:33)
• Control and Negotiation: Studios' reluctance to own exhibition tech rooted in desire to maximize reach, not limit it for proprietary gain.
  • "That's the whole argument against these studios getting into exhibition in the first place... They want to be everywhere." —Matt Belloni (16:57)

4. Netflix, IMAX, and the David Fincher Move

• Netflix's Theatrical Dabble: Netflix is putting Fincher’s sequel to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood into a Thanksgiving IMAX slot—originally reserved for Narnia/Greta Gerwig—hoping for awards and filmmaker goodwill.
  • "This is something that Fincher did not ask for. Netflix decided they would like to slot the Cliff Booth movie...into that Thanksgiving slot..." —Lukas Shaw (19:53)
• Exhibitor Reactions: AMC says yes; Regal is hesitating due to windowing policies.
  • "AMC has decided tactically that getting into bed with Netflix...will ultimately be better for AMC. The difference this time...there is no requirement [for a wide release]." —Lukas Shaw (21:13)
• Windowing Issues: Theatrical exclusivity windows remain a sticking point—Regal likely won’t play by Netflix’s rules unless the deal is mutually beneficial.
• Awards Play: Netflix seeks to attract top directors with “event” releases and to boost awards consideration by offering limited theatrical runs.
  • "If [Netflix] can do this every Thanksgiving with one of their big movies, maybe this becomes an annual event." —Lukas Shaw (24:09)
  • "[Netflix] should have won for Roma if, if Roma was a real wide theatrical release, Netflix would have won Best Picture, in my opinion." —Lukas Shaw (25:54)

5. State of the Movie Business

• Box Office Title Dependence: The apparent rebound is still “title dependent”—success relies on strong slates (like Shrek 5, nostalgia IP, and video game adaptations).
  • "I think the pipeline is finally back to quote unquote normal. And Hollywood has figured out what the post-Marvel movie landscape looks like." —Lukas Shaw (05:24)
• Young Audiences & Horror Boom: Gen Z moviegoers are turning up in theaters, particularly for original, internet-native horror content—e.g., Obsession, Backrooms.
  • "The audience being there...I just published some new data in my newsletter...And it's yes." —Lukas Shaw (08:14)
• Horror's New Wave: Young, digital-first creators are leading a renaissance in original horror, outperforming legacy sequels.
  • "He's got Backrooms coming this weekend that's going to be huge also. That's through A24." —Lukas Shaw (31:09)
  • "Horror is really capable of pumping out original movies that people will take a risk to go in and see more than any other genre by a mile." —Craig Horbeck (32:42)

---

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On IMAX Most Likely Outcome:
  "I think they have waited for this moment and there will be enough interest...it will be a boring private equity or, you know, technology partner...not a major studio."
  —Lukas Shaw (26:34)

• On Box Office Caution:
  "I'm cautiously optimistic that the business will settle at a somewhat diminished state, but not sort of be in any kind of tailspin."
  —Matt Belloni (06:51)

• On Studios Owning IMAX:
  "You half own it. And I just don't think they would."
  —Lukas Shaw (14:25)

• On Netflix and Awards:
  "I still don't believe Netflix is going to win Best Picture without giving a meaningful theatrical release to the movie."
  —Lukas Shaw (25:29)

• On Young Horror Filmmakers:
  "People are starting to attach themselves...to these young horror filmmakers who are making original horror movies. And we are really in...the glory days of horror."
  —Craig Horbeck (31:58)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• IMAX, its business model, and sale rumors: 01:34–08:46
• Who could (and should) buy IMAX? 08:46–16:23
• Studios and exhibition tech discussion: 11:52–14:25
• Netflix/Fincher in IMAX news: 19:53–26:16
• Theatrical window/dynamics with AMC, Regal, Netflix: 21:01–25:10
• Box office and content pipeline outlook: 05:05–08:37
• Gen Z, horror, and original movies boom: 07:06–08:37; 29:49–33:12
• Call Sheet: analysis of horror’s current success: 30:08–33:12

---

Conclusion

This episode is a must-listen for anyone tracking the ever-shifting landscape between traditional movie theaters, premium formats like IMAX, and the disruptive influence of streaming giants like Netflix. The hosts provide practical skepticism about headline-grabbing theories (e.g., studios buying IMAX) and ground their analysis in financial incentive, audience trends, and the industry's post-pandemic rebound. The current horror renaissance and Netflix's awards ambitions are portrayed as canaries in the coal mine for how Hollywood innovates (or doesn’t) in exhibition and content production.

---

Recommended for:

• Executives, industry observers, and film fans interested in the intersection of business, technology, and evolving moviegoing habits.
• Anyone wanting insight on how Hollywood weighs splashy moves (like Netflix’s foray into IMAX) against entrenched distribution models and market realities.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

Foreign.

[Lukas Shaw]

This episode of the Town is brought to you by Stars as Outlander Everything has led to this. The final chapter of the time traveling drama and cultural phenomenon starring Sam Heughan and Catriona Balf is only on stars. Vogue declares Outlander one of television's greatest love stories, and the rap raves Balf and Heughan have perfected this on screen relationship. Industry voters can access all [e-mail]

[Pharmaceutical Advertiser]

for adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphy offers self injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self inject Tremphya, proper training is required. Tremphya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis, Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur before treatment. Get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu like symptoms or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about tremphya today. Call 180-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit trimfireadio.com it is Tuesday, May 26th.

[Lukas Shaw]

Everyone loves IMAX theaters, right? The Hollywood studios certainly do. Take a look at a billboard for a big summer movie in la, and chances are IMAX is almost as big as the title of the film. It connotes theatricality in a landscape where theatricality is harder and harder to come by and also upcharges, of course, which the studios love. But who wants to buy imax? That's a question I've been thinking about since Thursday when the Wall Street Journal reported that IMAX has been talking to potential suitors about an acquisition of the 60 year old large format film company. IMAX is in a pretty interesting place because it's a technology company, it doesn't actually own or operate the IMAX theaters that you go to. It mostly licenses its proprietary format to exhibitors and programs the screens, about 1700 of them worldwide, including about 800 in China. So it doesn't have a ton of infrastructure or employees or real estate, all factors that have dragged down traditional theater chains. And unlike the theater business, the premium large format movie attendance is actually growing. Last year, PLFs as they're called That's IMAX and rival formats. They accounted for 16% of US ticket sales, up from 13% in 2021. Because of that growth, the Imax share price hit $42 in late February. It's at around 39 today. It went up after news of the sale. And at the same time, IMAX is only worth about $2 billion, so it wouldn't saddle most acquirers with a ton of debt. Still, lots of issues with particular suitors. And now Netflix. One of those potential suitors is putting David Fincher's upcoming sequel to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in IMAX theaters. That's what we're getting into today with Lukas Shaw, our Monday guy from Bloomberg. It's the IMAX auction. Who the buyers might be and why it all matters. From the ringer and puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas. How was New York?

[Matt Bellany]

Hot and rainy and glorious.

[Lukas Shaw]

Oh, nice.

[Matt Bellany]

You know, you've never lived until you've sat in the rain during a college graduation. It's really the highlight of a, a weekend.

[Lukas Shaw]

And then the humidity is so bad that when the rain stops, you're still just as wet. Well, it was lovely here. Had a nice experience in the Dodger game last night. All right, so we're having a pretty decent summer at the box office so far. You've written about it, I've written about it. The movies are back, as they say, and boom, out of nowhere, we get a journal report last week that IMAX has, has decided to sell. Is this just a product of a hot time for box office? Their stock has been up. People are kind of bullish for once since the pandemic on the future of movies. Why is this happening now?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, because of, of what you just outlined. This is the company that has been sort of formally or informally available or for sale for a few years now. It's not been a good time to sell yourself as a, as sort of a movie business when the larger business has been in crisis or uncertain, even if IMAX done better than most, because that's sort of the, those premium format screens are what people go to the theaters for. Now that the movie business is pro is going to have its best year since 2019. Why not see what the market will bear?

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, it seems like this was a trial balloon and their stock was pretty high. It was at 42. I think it's in the 30s at this point. But that's why they're doing this. I think Is because they don't know what the future will hold for movies. And can we take a step back?

[Matt Bellany]

I'm just curious because you gave the introduction on sort of like the movies great summer where you land on the like this is a great summer that portends years ahead and things are back versus this is sort of a one off because we have so many big titles this year and I'm. You're still worried about movies next year?

[Lukas Shaw]

I think it is entirely title dependent. But I think the pipeline is finally back to quote unquote normal. And Hollywood has figured out what the post Marvel movie landscape looks like. Not post Marvel, but fewer Marvel. Not dominated by Marvel. And if these video game adaptations and the nostalgia IP plays and all of this keeps working like it has been, we're going to have a big year next year. Shrek 5 is going to be gigantic next year and there's a bunch of other titles that are lined up. So I'm not prepared to say that's going to be a upward into the right trajectory from now on, but I do think it's sustainable.

[Matt Bellany]

Do you look to your point the phrase title dependent anything depends on are they going to keep making good enough movies? Have they figured out what will work? Are people going to go to the movies enough? Because right. The issue is grosses are rebounding, attendance is still down quite a bit. You know, the big concern would be we already had the impact of the Fox Disney merger at the same time as the pandemic. What will the impact be of the Warner Paramount merger? I guess I'd be cautiously encouraged because you see Amazon, Amazon really committed to trying to make movies work. You see Netflix starting to dab a little more. I know we're going to talk about that later. And if you can offset whatever declines we get from the Warner Paramount merger.

[Lukas Shaw]

Oh, how dare you. They're releasing 30 movies a year. How many times does he have to say it?

[Matt Bellany]

I think you could see Amazon and to a lesser extent Netflix offset some of that. So I'm cautiously optimistic that the business will settle at a somewhat diminished state, but not sort of be in any kind of tailspin.

[Lukas Shaw]

Listen, the best news for the movies right now is not necessarily that a Star wars movie can, you know, get to 100 million, even though people don't understand why it's a movie and not a TV show. The best news is that these YouTube filmmakers are grossing big numbers for these horror movies like Markiplier. And then we saw it with Obsession. The fact that obsessed we're going to talk about this, the call sheet fact that Obsession is going up in its second weekend and we've got backrooms, another young filmmaker coming out this weekend. These are the kind of movies that Hollywood needs to sustain. The kind of every day, every weekend titles.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, most importantly on those, I would say is we had entered a period with horror where it was really oversaturated. And I think that meant that most of what was working was kind of was sequels. It was. You were having a hard time getting new horror to break out. And what you're seeing is, yes, these sort of young filmmakers, many of them born on the Internet, on YouTube, are getting new and fresh horror ideas to work. And hopefully that can extend beyond horror because horror has been one of the few bright spots in the movie business for the last two years.

[Lukas Shaw]

And honestly, the audience being there, I mean, I just published some new data in my newsletter about Gen Z audiences and movies and they like going to the movie theater. And that was the big question for years coming out of the pandemic is that are young moviegoers who are trained on whatever movie they want on digital services even gonna want to go to movies? And I think we have the answer to that. And it's yes.

[Matt Bellany]

And specifically in imax, maybe.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. Well, then let's transition back. So that is the question is, who is gonna buy imax?

[Matt Bellany]

It feels more like a private equity bet to me than a studio bet.

[Lukas Shaw]

I agree.

[Matt Bellany]

If you look at the potential bidders, okay, so you've got, you know, it's a technology, you've got the exhibitors, you know, the theater owners, most of them are still on pretty shaky financial footing. It seems hard to believe that they're going to pull off a deal like this. It would be a, it would be pretty remarkable if, if AMC did.

[Lukas Shaw]

Many complications there because, yes, they have a large number of the IMAX theaters, but they don't have them all. And they would all of a sudden own a company that's programming their rival theaters. Like, that's weird. And we should be clear about this, IMAX does not own theaters. There's a misconception out there. When you go to an IMAX theater, IMAX is licensing the technology and programming the screens. They have the relationship with filmmakers, they have the proprietary tech, but they do not actually own the vast majority of their screens. So it's could potentially fall to one of these exhibitors. But I agree with you. I don't think that they are, they are going to do it.

[Matt Bellany]

If AMC were to do it just in this hypothetical scenario, Wouldn't they try to make. Wouldn't they try to make IMAX just an AMC product? If you want to go and see IMAX movies, you have to go to an a.m. it's part of the, you know, their loyalty program is we now are the only place to go see imax.

[Lukas Shaw]

Sure. But that's going to cost money that they don't have to convert all those theaters. And then you've got the rival theaters that could punish you, who would then

[Matt Bellany]

launch their own versions and it would be interesting.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, yeah. Which they already have. They. I mean, a lot of them have these other formats that they use in theaters and they would have their own version of this and it would become a, you know, kind of proprietary thing for each chain, potentially. But keep in mind that AMC also has other formats as well, and that would potentially be complicating as well.

[Craig Horbeck]

But there are no rules prohibiting a studio like Disney from buying imacs, correct?

[Lukas Shaw]

No. So let's get into that. The. The Paramount decrees, which prevented exhibition and distribution from being under the same roof. Those are all gone. We saw Sony buy Alamo Drafthouse a couple years ago. A studio could come in like a Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

Also, would IMAX even count? Because it's not a theater. It's just a technology. I think they could.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, it wouldn't even matter because you're right, it's just technology. But they do own a couple theaters. Yeah. And maybe there would be a problem there, but I don't think there would be any more.

[Matt Bellany]

Do you think that Sony. Now that we've had a couple of years, do you think that Sony regrets buying Alamo Drafthouse?

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know. I mean, have we seen. We'd have to ask them about that

[Matt Bellany]

because has there been a clear benefit yet?

[Lukas Shaw]

They would probably say that they have been able to showcase their anime and their other, you know, Crunchyroll titles and other things like that. And they would say that they're learning about the business. And, you know, the biggest thing that we've heard about Alamo Drafthouse is that they now allow you to order on your phone, which people are up in arms about, because they don't want that in the theaters. But I don't know the answer to that. So a studio could come in and buy imax. Why. Why would a place like Disney or Universal do this? And why would they not?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, I can't really come up with a compelling reason for why they would. Why do they need to own it?

[Lukas Shaw]

Okay, but think about how annoyed Disney is at not getting IMAX theaters for Avengers. They're creating their own fake Infinity vision to promote the large format. And if you believe in the future of large format movies, and that's where the audience is going, why not own the biggest brand in that space?

[Matt Bellany]

I just don't think that you're going to spend billions of dollars to buy a company because you miss out on one or two dates a year. That's just not a compelling reason for them. Disney for the most part tells IMAX and movie theaters like, this is what we're gonna do and you take it or you leave it. Right. And they usually get their way. They're the biggest, baddest movie studio.

[Lukas Shaw]

But not always. Listen, Nolan is getting the screens for his movie this summer at the expense of Spider Man. Sure.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. So again, twice a year they lose to a unit, they lose once to Universal and. And you're talking about Versus Spider man, which is not even technically a. I mean it's partially a Disney movie, but it's mostly a Sony movie. So they miss out once to Universal and once to Warner Brothers and otherwise they're just fine. And they're going to end this year as the highest grossing studio. Again, I just don't see the up if you haven't seen other than Sony Alamo, which is sort of like a quirky, weird deal. If you haven't seen studios buy movie theaters, which actually makes a little more sense, at least for a company like Disney. If you think about them as an experiences company, except it's a terrible business. You're going to really see them buy this technology that they can use without having to pay a bunch of money anyways.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, they don't need it.

[Matt Bellany]

If I were them, and I fully support the idea that these studios, much like record label, should actually have been investing in technology. Right. If you are an owner of cable networks, you should have been investing in streaming technology much earlier. If you're an owner of a movie studio, you should probably be investing in different AI filmmaking tools. Right? Like whether we think that the Ben Affleck company is real or not. The idea that Netflix is making a bet on, we need to figure out. AI filmmaking is the type of bet that a studio should be making. They are supposed to be at the front lines of technology when it comes to producing and distributing their movies. They are not when it comes to movies, fundamentally exhibitors. And they haven't been in a long time. So why you'd spend a bunch of time or money buying a company that that is like a technological layer of exhibition I don't understand.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, it's just that that is where the growth is in theatrical movie going. You are the number one studio. You make the kinds of movies that do very well in imax. So why not own it and control that experience? The problem is you don't actually control it because you don't actually own the theaters where they're being exhibited. So you kind of. You half own it. And I just don't think they would. And the Netflix argument makes even less sense to me. Why would Netflix buy imax? People are like, oh, well, it would be great because they could put their movies in the Netflix theaters. They're already experimenting with Narnia and the Fincher movie and they could just blow it out and have that be their theatrical component. But again, they would still be subject to the windowing policies of these chains because that's where these movies are played. So it doesn't really solve that problem that Netflix has.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, Netflix has to be a little more committed to movie theaters before it contemplates buying a technology for movie theaters.

[Lukas Shaw]

That's why to me, you know, something like A Live Nation makes a little more sense. It is an out of home entertainment company and maybe that would make a little bit more sense for them to kind of get into this premium movie experience. But I think most likely it will be private equity or some kind of technology partner that already has a relationship with IMAX that wants to come in and own it or nothing. Or nothing. Or like a rich guy. Honestly, you get instant access to top filmmakers. You want to be best friends with Christopher Nolan, buy imax. He is best friends with Rich Gelfon, the CEO, because they give him something that he really, really wants. All these top filmmakers love imax.

[Matt Bellany]

Would you say they are best friends or that they are professional friends?

[Lukas Shaw]

I said best friends in the metaphorical sense.

[Matt Bellany]

They're not going to cookouts at one another's houses on Memorial Day weekend.

[Lukas Shaw]

And no, in the same way that you are best friends with bts. Right. Because you, you interview them a lot. And you.

[Matt Bellany]

I've interviewed them once. Just so we're clear.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, you. But their team. You, the high team.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yes, yes.

[Craig Horbeck]

Wait, Matt, can you explain? Let's say Disney bought imax. Can they reserve IMAX only for Disney movies or no?

[Lukas Shaw]

They could, but it might jeopardize the relationship they have with the theaters that play their movies. They could prioritize their own movies though. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

That's the whole argument against these studios getting into exhibition in the first place is right. They want to be everywhere. So do you really just want to have your movies in Disney only experiences and limit the footprint or does that mean you have to open up a bunch more theaters?

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. And every movie is a negotiation with the theaters for what your split is going to be. And if you are a theater owned by a studio, it might complicate the relationship with rival studios.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

And they might start screwing you and you might have the incentive to screw them. So it's, it's worked this way for a reason. But again, the studios don't like that. They don't control the end experience for their customers. And if Disney owned a theater chain, maybe that experience would be a lot better for their movies.

[Matt Bellany]

You said Live Nation. I'm, I'm struggling to see Live Nation buying an imax. I could, I would almost see Live Nation be more likely to buy something like Cosm than, than imax.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I mean, it's, it's. They're similar though.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, but IMAX is just a technology player. Again, unless they wanted to open a bunch of IMAX theaters. Why does Live Nation suddenly want to be a tech supplier to AMC and Regal and all? It doesn't seem right.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I mean, and the concert films that they're making now with artists, like, not a big enough business.

[Matt Bellany]

To say nothing of the fact that like, does Live Nation want to be attempting a major deal while they're in the middle of this antitrust?

[Lukas Shaw]

Oh, well, that's a whole separate thing. Like, I don't think they would risk it for imax. This episode is brought to you by Marvel Television presenting Wonder man starring Yahya Abdul Mateen II and Ben Kingsley. See what the Guardian calls a triumph of storytelling and a masterclass in acting. Now on Disney Wonder man for your Emmy consideration in all categories including outstanding Comedy Series. This episode is brought to you by FX's the Lowdown from acclaimed Reservation Dogs creator Sterlin Harjo. The series stars five time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawke as Lee Raybon, a self described Tulsa true story and whose fixation on the truth tends to create more problems than it solves. This gloriously off kilter NOIR is an AFI television program of the year and one of 2025's most critically acclaimed shows. The Lowdown is available for your Emmy consideration on Hulu and Disney plus for bundle subscribers.

[FanDuel Advertiser]

The playoffs are here and you can predict the action all the way to the finals with FanDuel predicts. Follow all the playoff dishes, swishes, wishes and misses. Predict the spread, the total points and even the Game winner. Sign up for FanDuel Predicts and predict it from the couch. Offered by FanDuel Prediction Markets, LLC, a registered Futures Commission merchant. Eighteen trading derivatives involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Manage your activity with our consumer protection tools.

[Lukas Shaw]

All right, speaking of imax, let's talk about the David Fincher move here a little bit, because this is something that Fincher did not ask for. You and I both reported that they, Netflix decided that they would like to slot the Cliff Booth movie, Still Untitled, the sequel to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, into that Thanksgiving slot that was reserved for Greta Gerwig. Her Narnia movie is moving to February, so they had these theaters reserved. AMC was like, go for it. Bring that movie into theaters. Adam Aaron, like, cannot say enough nice things about Ted Sarandos, who, by the way, that, you know, you know that that relationship started because Ted listened to Adam on the Town in our interview with him, and then they started chatting about what they could do together. It's amazing. Then they're going to give it two weeks, hold it for another two weeks, put it on the service Christmas day or the 23rd, and everybody seems to be okay with it except Regal, which has not said whether they would play this movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Why do you think Regal is the. Is the holdout?

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, because they don't want to smash their window policy for Netflix. That was the whole problem in the first place, is that the Narnia movie, they did a deal with amc, Right?

[Matt Bellany]

But why is.

[Lukas Shaw]

Why.

[Matt Bellany]

Why is AMC okay with it and Regal not?

[Lukas Shaw]

That is the question because AMC has decided tactically that getting into bed with Netflix and having a relationship there will ultimately be better for amc. And the difference this time around is when Netflix did the deal for Narnia, IMAX guaranteed that they would give them a thousand theaters, that they would give them a full wide Release. There are 1800 theaters around the world that have IMAX. 800 of them are in China. And they basically said, we will give you at least a thousand. That put them in a tough spot because that requires the involvement of Regal, which has many of these theaters, not all. And AMC has way more. But this time around, for the Fincher movie, there is no requirement. And they did that on purpose so that AMC could agree to this and Regal would have no leverage over it. If Regal doesn't want to show the movie, fine. They don't have to show the movie in their IMAX screens, but they can do the release without Regal. So it puts Regal in a really interesting spot. They can say, we believe in our windows, we're not playing this and leave millions of dollars on the table. Or they can go along with this and potentially harm their windowing policy. That's going to hurt them in the future.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. What would you do if I were Regal? Yeah, I guess I'd probably show it, but I don't think that this. We're not, we're not talking about a huge blockbuster here.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know. The Last 1 did 400 million and the Fincher nerds are gonna show up.

[Matt Bellany]

But see, that's the huge difference. Tarantino is one of the, on that short list of filmmakers that people go to the theaters to see. David Fincher is not. Partly because David Fincher has spent the last decade mostly in business with Netflix. And so the idea of a spinoff

[Lukas Shaw]

to this movie I just written by Tarantino, I'm excited to see it and

[Matt Bellany]

I hope it does well.

[Lukas Shaw]

But I don't think we're talking starring Brad Pitt.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't think we're talking about a movie that if we're given a proper theatrical release, would be a guaranteed hit.

[Lukas Shaw]

I think you're wrong. I think it's going to be big and I think the super bowl spot and the marketing that's going to be associated with it will create demand here. So I, I, and I think that they are going to do.

[Matt Bellany]

I can't be wrong because I'm not. I'm just saying it's not a guaranteed hit. I think it could be, but it's

[Lukas Shaw]

not like, but bottom line that. So let's say it gets a thousand screens in IMAX.

[Matt Bellany]

Gets the 10 million, 15 million.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. Like Best Case and Regal gets a share of that. It's only a few million they're leaving on the table.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

Is that worth blowing up your windows

[Matt Bellany]

or do you believe it's blowing up your windows?

[Lukas Shaw]

Oh. Meaning. Yeah, it's just such a small stunt that no one really cares. Yeah. I don't know. It's going to get a lot of marketing.

[Matt Bellany]

This doesn't feel like, you know, the Narnia thing is like officially a big deal because it's a 49 day window and it's a proper theatrical release. This feels more stunty. It's two weeks, you know, so.

[Lukas Shaw]

But this was the original Greta Gerwig deal that we talked at length about. And this is what seems to be a template for Netflix. If they can do this every Thanksgiving with one of their big movies, maybe this becomes an annual event.

[Matt Bellany]

If they can do it with an Awards movie that they want to give some extra shine and run.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. And more importantly, they want to lure the kinds of filmmakers they want to work with and won't work with Netflix because of the theatrical issue. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

So. And I guess Regal's argument would be we don't want to help facilitate this will show. We'll show Narnia because it's a real window, but we don't want it.

[Lukas Shaw]

No, it's not. It's not because of the Netflix relationship. It's because of their relationship with everybody else. Why would the other studios not ask for the same treatment on certain movies?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, because most of the other studios have committed now to this 45 day construct.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I mean, that's, that's the answer to that. But I don't know, they could use it as leverage. You're giving Netflix things that you're not giving us. So what else are you giving us? Right.

[Matt Bellany]

Possible.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know. You don't seem too convinced.

[Matt Bellany]

No, it's fine to draw a line in the sand. And I'm, I'm probably underestimating the ways in which other studios will use it because I know that other studios were, were pissed about the Narnia thing because at imax, why are you giving Netflix, you know, this, this treatment when they still don't have any interest in your business?

[Lukas Shaw]

And if the Fincher movie is really good, maybe it becomes a bigger awards play because it got theaters. I still don't believe Netflix is going to win Best Picture without giving a meaningful theatrical release to the movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. So this one would have no shot.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, this one would have a better shot than most of their movies.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they've had, They've been. I don't know, they've been runner up two or three times. I think you're mostly right, but they have runner up.

[Lukas Shaw]

They should have won for Roma if, if Roma was a real wide theatrical release, Netflix would have won Best Picture, in my opinion. No disrespect to the Green Book apologists that year, but I think Roma would have won if it had gotten a real theatrical release. You should have seen the look on people's faces at that Oscars when Green Book won. There was a screw Netflix feeling throughout that. That room.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, I don't think Spike Lee was very happy about it.

[Lukas Shaw]

No, he wasn't alone. So, Lucas, in a year, is IMAX owned by someone else?

[Matt Bellany]

I would still bet no, but, you know, reserve the right to be wrong as always.

[Lukas Shaw]

I think they will sell.

[Matt Bellany]

You think they will?

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I think they have waited for this moment and there will be enough interest and the. It will be a boring private equity or, you know, technology partner. It will not be a major studio and it will change hands. Maybe be taken private.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, it would have to be taken private and I guess unless you're saying another public company buys it.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Either way, it would cease to exist as a standalone public company.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yes.

[Craig Horbeck]

Do you think it will change how many IMAX theaters exist? If it goes private equity, will we see a boom in IMAX theaters?

[Lukas Shaw]

I mean, that's the other issue is they should be growing, they should be adding more theaters because clearly the demand is there and most of these theater chains would love it if their percentage of IMAX and large format screens went up.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I mean, people want. No, I don't, I don't have a. I don't know. Of course, yes, the people want there to be more. Yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

But they just don't want to pay for it. They don't want to. They don't want to have to expend the money to build out the theaters. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, look, the people that should own this technology are the, are the theater owners. Much as I said that movie studios should be on the front lines of sort of investing in filmmaking technology and, and sort of new talent exhibition. Technology should be what amc, Regal and Cinemark are the best at. And instead they have this other company that they have sort of this large kind of friendly but occasionally contentious relationship with.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I agree. But obviously one of them buying it would create other problems. All right, Lucas, thanks very much.

[Matt Bellany]

Thanks, man.

[Lukas Shaw]

Today's call sheet is brought to you by Holiday Inn, by ihg, the global icon you love, but with a whole new energy and comfort that hits different than before. Craig, before we start on the call sheet, some accountability corner from last week. A pretty brutal week for me. I took the under on 85 million for the four day on Mandalorian and Grogu. Final number 98 million.

[Craig Horbeck]

Sure. I, I'm surprised. You usually have your finger on the pulse for movies that kids will like.

[Lukas Shaw]

I know.

[Craig Horbeck]

And so I'm surprised even having taken your son that you didn't think this would overperform with families.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know what I was think I. I regretted that call the second I made it. And you were right. And 85 was just way too low. The NRG number, like they just didn't get what kids were into. And the numbers on this show that it was kids that powered it so bad on me. I also whiffed on Colbert, the finale. I predicted it would be between 4 million and 5 million live plus same day viewers. The Nielsen preliminary number was 6.74 million. We don't have the final number yet, but it's not going to go below 5. So I whiffed on that one too. A lot of people watch Colbert.

[Craig Horbeck]

A lot of people watch Colbert late night. Maybe they shouldn't have canceled it.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know. There was a whole thing where, you know, people wondered if, if they would just watch the clips and I thought that they would just watch the clips and turns out his fans showed up. It was the number one weekday episode of the show ever, so I don't know how sustainable that would be.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, the boomers still tune in when they need to.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. Bad week for me. Let's move on. Craig, you and I have not seen Obsession yet.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yet. Will you see it?

[Lukas Shaw]

No, I'm not. But honestly, I expect you to see it. This is a young person thing.

[Craig Horbeck]

I know I don't love horror, but I have been texting my friends who love horror and ask them how scary it is and they said it's right on the fringe. So I might watch this movie.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, it's like Fatal Attraction but with some gore, right?

[Craig Horbeck]

Sure, I think a lot of gore, but yes.

[Lukas Shaw]

And made for less than a million dollars. Unbelievable. This filmmaker, Curry Barker and bought at the Toronto Film Festival by focus features for $15 million. He before that got Jason Blum of Blumhouse to come on board as a producer and unbelievable success here. Opened to 17 million second weekend. It goes up by 40% to 32 million for the weekend. That never happens. Horror movies in particular tend to drop off after the first weekend. We haven't had a movie that's gone up like this since 2023. And that was Sound of Freedom, which was the QAnon associated movie that opened on 4th of July and then went up. I mean, this thing is an absolute phenomenon at 60 plus million domestic. My prediction today is that this is going to blow past 100 million domestic.

[Craig Horbeck]

The word of mouth is tremendous. Horror is in such a fantastic. These are the glory days of horror. We're going to look back on this era.

[Lukas Shaw]

We were talking about it as being oversaturated a year ago and, you know, Megan too missed the mark. And to Blum's credit, he completely recalibrated and is now going after these young filmmakers with more grassroots, kind of digital first ethos. And he's succeeding. He's got backrooms coming this weekend that's going to be huge also. That's through a 24.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yes. I think that what is starting to work more, it's not the IP sequelization of horror films. It's like these young creators coming off YouTube. I mean, back in 2022, it kind of started with that movie Talk to Me, which was created by. By the two Australian YouTubers. That movie did like 100 million on a $4 million budget. And now we're seeing backrooms with Kane Parsons. We have this movie with Curry Barker.

[Lukas Shaw]

Long Legs was sort of a grassroots thing as well.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yes. But people are starting to attach themselves, you know, Zach Krager with weapons to these young horror filmmakers who are making original horror movies. And we are really in. I mean, I mean, it is like every couple months now there is another huge horror movie that everybody needs to go see. It's pretty remarkable.

[Lukas Shaw]

What a windfall too for Focus. I mean, I thought I saw that $15 million price tag that they paid at Toronto. I was like, oh, that seems like a lot. But now it's like free money. I mean, it's unbelievable. And they're going to have sequels forever. They do have sequel rights. Focus has sequel rights to this movie. So, man, what a win for everyone. Good job. We're not always crapping on Hollywood. The haters say we crap on Hollywood. This is. This is a absolute out of nowhere, huge success, totally.

[Craig Horbeck]

Horror is really capable of pumping out original movies that people will take a risk to go in and see more than any other genre by a mile.

[Lukas Shaw]

And that you and I will not see.

[Craig Horbeck]

Probably not.

[Lukas Shaw]

That's okay. It's probably better that way.

[Craig Horbeck]

It's such a difference. You know, it's the horror movies. The quote unquote, fatal attractions. They're single white females. The movies that came out in the 90s, when you watch those and compare them to the movies that came out now, they are so much tamer. Like, you can actually sit down and watch that with your family. And there are creepy moments, but it is not horror. Even though it was marketed as horror

[Lukas Shaw]

30 years ago, I know now it's like someone's getting decapitated or a knife in the eye or something. Yeah, it's unbelievable. All right, today's call. She was brought to you by Holiday Inn. They kept the global icon status and upgraded pretty much everything else from refreshed rooms to dining. Done. Right, It's a new day and a whole new stay at Holiday Inn booked today at Holiday Inn. That's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, art editor. Matt Pevik and I want to thank you. We'll see. One more time this.