Podcast Summary: Is Hollywood Broken? A Savvy Investor’s View of 2026

The Town with Matthew Belloni | The Ringer | January 10, 2026
Guest: Jeff Sagansky (Media investor & executive; Eagle Equity Partners)
Host: Matthew Belloni

Episode Overview

In this episode, Matthew Belloni sits down with seasoned media investor and former studio head Jeff Sagansky to examine Hollywood’s current dealmaking landscape, the streaming oligopoly, the shifting economics for creative talent, and what investors are watching for in 2026. The discussion is a candid, behind-the-curtain analysis of major M&A, antitrust scrutiny, the free-streaming boom, short-form content, and the existential threats to Hollywood’s legacy business—told via the lens of someone who's seen fifty years of industry upheaval.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Streaming Oligopoly, M&A, and Warner Bros: The Big Auction

• Major Ongoing Deals: Belloni frames the year as pivotal, zeroing in on the Warner Bros. Discovery auction, Netflix’s bid, and Paramount’s efforts ([00:40]).

  • Netflix’s acquisition is “both an offensive and defensive” play, aiming to absorb HBO's subs and bolster growth ([07:35]).
  • Paramount’s bid presents less of a concentration risk but triggers different regulatory scrutiny, including state-level antitrust concerns ([08:51]).

• Industry Memory: Both agree that the Disney-Fox merger has proven damaging in hindsight, with impact beyond shareholders:

  "I think of that as an absolute disaster for both the business and Los Angeles... the only people that really made out were the investors in Fox."
  — Jeff Sagansky ([04:22])

• Antitrust Politics: Both federal and state authorities are now much more sensitive to media consolidation, and job loss in LA will be a political motivator ([09:32]):

  "The governor and the attorney general have a lot of power here to enforce the law, despite what the federal government wants."
  — Jeff Sagansky ([09:47])

• What if No Merger?

  • Warner Bros. could thrive independently, perhaps through additional acquisitions (like Lionsgate), given “an incredible year” and reduced debt ([12:12]-[13:01]).
  • Sagansky warns of “private equity vampires” if no strategic or industry player wins out ([11:45]).

2. The “Dark Age” for Creative Talent

• Profit Participation Dwindling: Sagansky revisits his 2022 thesis:

  "We're in the golden age of content production and the dark age of creative profit sharing."
  — Jeff Sagansky (paraphrased by Belloni at [02:56])

  • The “Netflix model” has eliminated traditional back-end residuals for most ([14:12]):

    “Imagine if we said to all the authors in this country and all the singers in this country and the composers, 'Hey, you are no longer going to get any back end from your creation.' ...That's exactly what's happened in our business.”
    — Jeff Sagansky ([14:39])

  • Notable exceptions (like Ben Affleck & Matt Damon’s Artist Equity deal) are “rare victories,” but Netflix maintains it’s not changing its policy ([15:06]-[15:31]).

• Prospects for Change:

  • Belloni asks if a Fin-Syn (Financial Interest and Syndication Rules) style reversal is possible. Sagansky says important people are discussing it and that it first passed in 1971 under Nixon due to political gamesmanship, despite industry disbelief ([15:51]-[17:14]):

    “No one thought it could happen then either. ...It was a political process.”
    — Jeff Sagansky ([16:49]-[16:51])

3. The 2026 M&A Landscape: Capital, Consolidation & Uncertainty

• Flood of Deals Expected:

  • Cheaper debt, more equity (especially from Middle Eastern sovereign funds), and pent-up private equity ownership mean an “active year” ([19:01]-[20:18]).
  • Key legacy media assets (Versant, Warner, Stars, etc.) are in play. Even agencies and management companies could trade hands ([21:37]-[22:15]).
  • Short-form video companies, generative AI, live events, and private transactions are hot verticals ([20:50]-[21:37]).

  “We're in a period where private equity has been sitting on assets for far too long and they need a monetization event, either an IPO or a sale.”
  — Jeff Sagansky ([21:45])

4. The Rise of Free Platforms & The Return of “Cable”

• “Free” is Booming:

  • With streaming prices rising, viewers flock to free ad-supported streamers (YouTube, Tubi, Pluto, Roku, etc.), which now account for 18% of TV viewing ([23:29]-[24:15]).
  • Netflix and the streamers have essentially reconstituted many of the consumer pain points from the old cable model:

    “Because of the prices, the incredible acceleration of price increases of streaming, people want some free content.”
    — Jeff Sagansky ([24:15])

• Quality Slippage and Viewer Trends:

  • Gen Z and young millennials are increasingly avoiding traditional TV; growth is happening in betting, games, and social media.
  • A shrinking number of services per household could hit streamers’ valuations hard ([26:54]).

    “If that happens, you're going to see the valuations of streaming really start to come down.”
    — Jeff Sagansky ([27:42])

• Netflix’s Strategy:

  • Netflix is “desperately” trying to diversify (video games, podcasts, shorter-form) to fight YouTube and TikTok, but faces structural challenges:

    “I am certainly not betting that Netflix can become TikTok or YouTube, which have a much better business model. YouTube and TikTok...they revenue share, they don't pay for content. It doesn't work.”
    — Jeff Sagansky ([28:06])

5. The Short-Form Revolution & AI Content

• Short-Form Surges:

  • Services like Real Short Drama Box offer “minute, two-minute episodes” at a fraction of Hollywood production cost. Some predict a $10B market by 2027, larger than theatrical film ([29:32]-[30:13]).
  • AI tools could “clipify” movies and shows, allowing viewers to watch condensed versions ([30:47]-[31:18]).

  “Imagine watching True Detective or Stranger Things in one hour rather than six...these viewers being trained on real shorts...they won't have any issue with it.”
  — Jeff Sagansky ([31:18])

  • Belloni jokes about which directors would allow their films to be cut down for new formats, highlighting creator ambivalence ([32:00]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “Rotten Time” to Be a Producer:

  “75 years...profit sharing has been part of our business...overnight it's eliminated.”
  — Jeff Sagansky ([14:39])

• On Hollywood Leadership:

  “Those guys in that generation, they felt a responsibility to the business and, and to Los Angeles...my hope is that those leaders are going to step forward...”
  — Jeff Sagansky ([11:04])

• On the Looming Wave of Private Equity:

  “If neither Netflix nor Paramount gets Warners...they are just going to restart the process and...potentially some private equity vampire that's going to just break it up and...suck all the juice out of it.”
  — Matthew Belloni ([11:45])

• Clipification & AI:

  “It suggests a whole other use for these massive film libraries...taking AI, taking movies, condensing them to much shorter experiences...there may be others who welcome the additional revenue.”
  — Jeff Sagansky ([30:47]-[31:50])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |-----------|-------------| | 03:40 | Disney-Fox acquisition post-mortem, new mergers comparison | | 05:33 | Streaming consolidation and the new oligopoly | | 06:19 | Netflix’s acquisition motives and market share talk | | 08:18 | Antitrust obstacles, state vs federal roles | | 12:17 | Warner’s case for surviving as an independent studio | | 14:12 | The collapse of profit participation for creatives | | 15:51 | Will Fin-Syn–style rules return? History lesson | | 19:01 | M&A landscape for 2026; private equity and sovereign funds | | 23:29 | “Free” streaming services’ rise and the consumer shift | | 26:54 | Gen Z’s disinterest in TV, implications for streaming | | 28:06 | Netflix’s attempts to become more like YouTube/TikTok | | 29:32 | Short-form content, microdramas, and AI-enabled clipification | | 32:00 | Directors’ reactions to film “condensing” |

Tone and Style

The conversation is sharp, unsparing, and sometimes sardonic. Both Belloni and Sagansky blend institutional memory with current deal skepticism, never shying away from tough assessments or regulatory politics. Sagansky, in particular, is critical of what’s been lost in Hollywood’s recent evolution—most of all for the creative workforce.

Final Thoughts

• Hollywood’s 2026 is shaping up as a battle between legacy consolidation, investor appetites, and cultural/technological shifts toward free and short-form experiences.
• The return of antitrust as a major force—and the emergence of state regulators—suggest mergers won’t be easy.
• Creators face new challenges amidst the triumph of the platform, and a return to profit-sharing is far from certain.
• The rise of free ad-supported content and AI-driven “clipification” may fundamentally reorder how Hollywood monetizes storytelling.

For readers: This summary captures the essence of the conversation and key points of analysis, but the episode is rich with asides, industry history, and off-the-cuff moments. For Hollywood watchers and investors alike, Sagansky’s seasoned skepticism is both a warning and a roadmap.