Podcast Summary: "Kimmel Is Back, But Disney vs. Trump Is Just Beginning"

The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matthew Belloni | Guest: Eric Gardner (Puck, legal reporter)
Date: September 25, 2025

Overview

This episode dives deep into the legal, political, and media industry fallout from Jimmy Kimmel's controversial return to air following a shooting incident and the national debate it sparked, especially among affiliates, the FCC, and former President Donald Trump. Matthew Belloni and legal expert Eric Gardner dissect the power struggle between Disney/ABC, conservative affiliate station groups (Nexstar, Sinclair), the FCC (specifically Commissioner Brendan Carr), and the broader implications for free speech and broadcast media. The conversation also touches on Apple TV+'s decision to delay the release of "The Savant" due to real-world events.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Kimmel’s Return: Corporate, Legal, and Political Landscape

• [01:24-04:45]:
  Belloni recaps the previous night’s Jimmy Kimmel Live episode—its strong ratings, Kimmel’s emotional tone, and direct responses to Trump and FCC concerns.
  • Kimmel denied linking a shooter to the MAGA movement, but public reaction remains divided along political lines.
  • Affiliates Nexstar and Sinclair refused to air Kimmel in about 66 ABC markets, citing community interests.
  • Nexstar released vague statements about “diverse interests,” while FCC's Brendan Carr publicly supported affiliates’ rights to preempt content.

2. FCC’s Real Power and Potential Actions

• [04:45-06:23]:
  Eric Gardner clarifies the FCC's actual options:
  • News Distortion Complaint: The main remedy is a "demerit" in an affiliate’s license renewal—not fines or immediate license revocation.
  • Any direct punitive action would likely be overturned in court on First Amendment grounds.
• Notable Quote:

  “It’s a little bit toothless... If [the FCC] did lead to action, Disney would storm into court and 100% would win.” – Eric Gardner [05:58]

3. Affiliate Contracts and Preempting Programming

• [06:23-09:37]:
  Affiliate agreements generally require limited preemptions (e.g., 15 hours/year), with exceptions for “public interest,” which affiliates may invoke in this case.
  • However, defining “public interest” is subjective. Long-running shows like Kimmel make the affiliates’ argument harder.

4. Limits of FCC and Brendan Carr’s Influence

• [10:04-12:03]:
  • Carr's real leverage is limited due to shrinking broadcast TV influence.
  • His primary tool is public pressure, not legal authority.
  • Belloni calls Carr’s approach “bluster”; Gardner says it's only powerful if the media takes him seriously.
• Notable Quote:

  “He uses his megaphone a lot of his bluster and, you know, to the extent that he has power in that megaphone, sure, he has that, but we give him that power by taking him seriously.” – Eric Gardner [12:03]

5. Trump’s Lawsuit Threats and Larger Politics

• [12:22-13:01]:
  • Trump has threatened to sue Disney, referencing past settlements with ABC News.
  • Disney’s response has been to amplify Kimmel’s monologue online—reaching far more viewers than broadcast preemptions could block.

6. Ratings, Online Viewership, and Affiliate Dilemmas

• [13:43-14:19]:
  • Kimmel’s return brought over 6 million live TV viewers, tripling the usual audience, despite 20%+ station boycotts.
  • Online, the monologue quickly became the most-watched in YouTube history.

7. Affiliates’ Political and Legal Calculations

• [14:19-17:12]:
  • Affiliates cite “reflecting diverse interests,” but Belloni and Gardner see this as cover to walk back their boycott.
  • Nexstar and Sinclair’s bigger risk may come from state attorneys general potentially challenging their mergers if they don’t relent—especially as Democratic AGs wield regulatory power in blue states.
• Notable Quote:

  “I think their biggest political risk is not at the federal level. It’s at the local level and they need to be careful.” – Eric Gardner [16:10]

8. Disney’s Leverage: Sports and Streaming

• [18:07-20:36]:
  Disney’s true leverage isn’t Kimmel, but its sports programming (especially football).
  • While “nuclear options” like pulling sports are unlikely now, Disney could:
    • Retaliate during contract renewals
    • Shift more content to streaming platforms and away from traditional affiliates

9. Shifting Economics: Streaming Era

• [20:36-22:25]:
  Both Disney and affiliates know the linear TV business is in decline, so traditional alliances are fraying.
  • Belloni predicts Disney will increasingly withhold content, opt for digital-first releases, and reduce perks for affiliates.
• Notable Quote:

  “The old time slap on the back is over.” – Matt Belloni [21:55]

10. Historical Perspective & Reduced Power of Preemption

• [22:25-23:23]: Eric Gardner recounts how the affiliate-network power struggle is as old as broadcast TV—going back to the origins of ABC from FCC action.
  • Today, digital access (YouTube, streaming) makes local preemptions far less effective or relevant.

11. Public, Legal, and Political Optics

• [24:07-26:48]:
  • Carr enjoys the attention but likely overplayed his hand.
  • Conservative backlash may not have the impact anticipated, as even comedians and public figures across the spectrum resist government/media censorship.
• Notable Moment:

  “He is a media whore.” – Matt Belloni on Brendan Carr [24:07]

12. Free Speech, Retribution, and the Cycle of Controversy

• [26:04-27:09]:
  The cycle of media censorship/retribution is seen as self-perpetuating—today’s controversy will fuel tomorrow’s, across political lines.

13. Apple TV+ and “The Savant”: Censorship Decisions in Tech

• [27:19-31:30]:
  • Apple has delayed Jessica Chastain’s “The Savant,” a show about infiltrating hate groups, due to its proximity to real-life events.
  • Apple, unlike Disney, is quick to “pause” content if there’s any whiff of controversy—because entertainment isn’t crucial to its core business.
  • Belloni predicts the show won’t air until at least early 2026.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Eric Gardner on FCC power:

  “He realizes that he’d be on shaky legal ground… There could be some news distortion complaint that comes to the surface and is ‘investigated.’” [04:47–04:52]

• Belloni on Disney’s new approach:

  “I think Disney is going to avoid the nuclear option and just stick [the affiliates] with little knives… Maybe take that show that was going to ABC, do that as a Hulu exclusive now.” [20:36–21:55]

• Gardner’s historical perspective:

  “The funny thing about this whole thing is that it harkens back to how ABC was created in the first place...” [22:25–22:58]

• Belloni on the diminishing impact of affiliate preemption:

  “Everybody just went on YouTube. So it just decreases their leverage, right?” [23:23]

• On “The Savant” delay:

  “Apple is not in the content business. They could pretty much care less what Jessica Chastain thinks about their release strategy and that this show will not air until at least the new year.” – Matt Belloni [28:57]

Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:24–04:45 | Jimmy Kimmel’s controversial return and affiliate backlash | | 04:45–06:23 | FCC’s options & legal remedies explained | | 06:23–09:37 | Affiliate agreements and the “public interest” clause | | 10:04–12:03 | Brendan Carr’s limited influence and “megaphone” strategy | | 13:43–14:19 | Kimmel Live’s ratings and online reach versus broadcast preemptions | | 14:19–17:12 | Affiliate legal/political risks and merger implications | | 18:07–20:36 | Disney’s power via sports contracts; likelihood of 'nuclear' options | | 20:36–22:25 | Changing affiliate-network relationships in the streaming era | | 22:25–23:23 | Historic context for affiliate-network tensions | | 24:07–26:48 | Political optics and the free speech controversy | | 27:19–31:30 | Apple TV+ “The Savant” delay: tech vs. entertainment company differences |

Final Takeaways

• The Kimmel controversy is far from over; legal, business, and political plays are still unfolding, with Disney likely holding the stronger cards for now.
• FCC and affiliate leverage is limited and largely symbolic in a digital-first world.
• The battle over free speech and “public interest” in broadcast is as much about politics and optics as it is about the law.
• Tech giants like Apple have even less appetite for controversy, preferring to sideline sensitive projects until the cultural weather changes.
• The overall trend highlights the diminishing power of traditional local broadcasters in the streaming era—and a media landscape where legal threats and cultural battles increasingly play out in public, online.