← The Town with Matthew Belloni
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- [00:00]
A
If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters, who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member today. This episode of the Town is presented by FX's Alien Earth. Set in the year 2120, the planet's greatest threat is discovered after a mysterious space vessel crash lands on Earth. Hailed as a dizzyingly haunting epic by the Wrap, the series stars Sidney Chandler, Timothy Olyphant and Babu Sise. FX's Alien Earth is now streaming on Hulu. RogerEbert.com declares that the series from Noah Hawley shatters already high expectations with standout performances. FX's alien Earth is now streaming on Hulu. This episode is brought to you by amc. Anne Rice's immortal universe expands with the gritty spy thriller the Secret Order. Guy is recruited by an otherworldly organization called the Talamasca to help solve a murder. Discover the shadowy powers that protect us from what we cannot see. Catch the two episode premiere of the Secret Order October 26th on AMC. Start your free trial now. It is Monday, October 20th. Throughout its relatively brief history as a streaming service, Netflix has evolved its current content pretty significant. First it was just movies and shows from others. Then they started making original shows, then movies, then unscripted series, game shows, comedy specials, live stuff. They weren't interested in sports, and then slowly but surely, they were interested in some sports forever. It was the we're better than YouTube. We don't want that non premium stuff. Then all of a sudden Cocomelon and Ms. Rachel came to Netflix from YouTube. And now Netflix is evolving again via two new deals. First, it's going into the podcast business, or at least some of the video podcasts from Spotify, and more specifically, a bunch of shows produced by the Ringer, which yes, makes this very show. No, the Town is not included in this deal. I'm very upset with Craig about that. But big shows like the Bill Simmons Podcast, the Rewatchables, the Big Picture, a bunch more, they'll all be available on video on Netflix. And importantly, the full episodes are coming off of YouTube. So why is this happening for Spotify? They get money and they get a premium distributor for the shows, and Netflix gets a regular stream of cheap and often topical content. The kind of programming that subscribers might turn on and leave on for hours and hours during the day or at work. And perhaps most important, it allows both these big tech platforms to take aim at YouTube, the dominant video platform. If this experiment works, I'd expect Netflix to go deeper into podcasts and other cheaper forms of content to challenge YouTube. But it's not without risks, of course. Namely, who's tuning into Netflix to watch podcasts? And is the cheaper YouTube style content going to sully the premium brand of Netflix at the same time, we got news last week that Netflix just broke its long standing feud with AMC theaters. Our good friend Adam Aaron, they agreed to play K Pop Demon Hunters, the movie when it returns to theaters over Halloween. If you remember, Adam refused to play Demon Hunters when it was in theaters last month. The movie went to number one anyways, so why now? And what does this thawing of the icy relations mean for more Netflix movies in theaters? Lots to discuss. So we've got our Monday guy, Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg here to talk about it all today. It's why Netflix jumped into bed with Spotify and the evergreen movie theater. Question from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellamy and this is the Town. Okay. We are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy. Big week for Spotify the Ringer. Wouldn't you agree Lucas?
- [04:12]
B
Big week for you. You're going to be on Netflix and Netflix star.
- [04:15]
A
I am not going to be on Netflix. The Town is not part of the package. Craig, however, is now a Netflix star. Based on his fantasy football podcast and rewatchables. Craig is basically Millie Bobby Brown at this point. Right, Craig? I think we're going to try to.
- [04:28]
B
Get her on the show for our first episode.
- [04:30]
A
You absolutely should. Would you, Craig, care to revise your opinion of Happy Gilmore 2?
- [04:36]
B
Yeah. Upon second watch I have to say there were some things I missed and I came around to it. It's now going to be on your year end 10 best list.
- [04:45]
A
Yes, the global smash Happy Gilmore 2. We are required to say at this point. Yes, obviously big conflicts of interest. The producer of this show is part of the Netflix deal that we are going to be talking about extensively today. So take that with a grain of salt.
- [05:01]
B
Just know that I'm happy to savage both sides.
- [05:03]
A
Yes, exactly. And neither Lucas nor myself Works for Spotify. Although Craig does have a Spotify email address. So email him.
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B
All right.
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A
So Lucas, why is Netflix doing this? Let's start with that side of the equation.
- [05:15]
B
An experiment. You know, they have talked openly, in particular co CEO Ted Sarandos about the their desire to dabble or try video podcasts.
- [05:27]
A
Yeah, we've been talking about it. We've been saying Netflix is becoming YouTube.
- [05:32]
B
They see how popular podcasts are. They see the growth of podcasts on YouTube, which is their biggest competitor for time and attention. And podcasts involve famous people and Netflix loves putting famous. Like if you think about this show accepted. Well, if you think about standup comedy. Right. Like that was one of their ways into original programming. Cause it was like a low cost way to get super famous people on Netflix. And so there's a relationship between the two companies. Ted Sarandos is on the board of.
- [05:58]
A
Spotify for how long? I'm not sure. They're basically competitors at this point.
- [06:02]
B
And this is. And Spotify is looking to push video. And rather than give its video to YouTube, which is again also for Spotify, its biggest competitor, it can instead try with Netflix, which is the second biggest platform. So it is a mutually beneficial experiment that seven people will experience.
- [06:18]
A
All right, you don't think anyone's gonna watch. But my take on this is that I think that if we look at the history of Netflix here, they have systematically gone after every single part of the TV ecosystem. They started doing originals, started with scripted, then they're doing reality, then they're doing game shows, then they're doing sports, even though they said they would never do sports. Then they're doing every single thing. And now this is them going after daytime. They're going after the audience that turns on the TV and leaves it on and does laundry and does their treadmill and does all these other things. It's not necessarily appointment viewing, but it's companionship viewing. And that's essentially for a lot of people, what these long podcasts are, is companion media and adjacent media.
- [07:06]
B
Well, it's also another way of going after topical programming which they have largely failed at and struggled.
- [07:13]
A
News without news.
- [07:14]
B
Yes. And the ringer in particular is about pop culture. And Netflix is sort of likes program about pop culture because they are part of culture. They get to experiment a little bit in sports, which is an area of increasing interest for them.
- [07:28]
A
When I've talked to them about this, they say that it's essentially the appointment viewing after the sports. They don't have to pay $11 billion a year like the NFL rights require of all its partners. But if they can get some of that audience who likes Bill Simmons talking about the NFL.
- [07:44]
B
I wake up on Monday morning often and will listen to Bill and cousin Sal talk about the football from the day before.
- [07:51]
A
But are you flipping on Netflix to do that?
- [07:53]
B
No. And when I'm using Spotify, I'm deliberately hitting just give me the audio, I don't want the video. But there are people who do like to watch the video and we'll put it on their TV and Netflix can cater. It's the ESPN shoulder programming. It's SportsCenter, it's NFL Live, it's all that stuff which doesn't rate nearly as highly as the games, but also cost a tiny fraction of the price.
- [08:14]
A
Right. And people usually go to YouTube for that stuff. The question here, that sort of. Or Spotify. Or Spotify, yes. The ringer shows are actually, I think, much bigger on Spotify as a percentage than they are on YouTube from everything that I've seen. But the general thought about Netflix is that you don't go to Netflix for this type of programming. And the bet I think they're making, or the experiment as you call it, is whether this type of programming is going to work on Netflix. And do we have any evidence that it will?
- [08:43]
B
Well, the reason I use the word experiment is you talked about the history of Netflix swallowing category by category. Right. And if you look at the history of them with each of those categories, they always start with one show or one slate or one little thing to test it. And then if it works like with House of Cards, House of Cards being the first example. But if it works like with standup comedy or with the sports follow along documentaries, then they like flood the zone and they do everything. And if it doesn't like their whole interactive programming experiment, then they pull back. And so they'll try this. I'm sure we'll see a couple of other. Like they have the arrangement with Tony Hinchcliffe, they're gonna keep doing some smaller podcast deals.
- [09:27]
A
I think that there are more coming. Every indication I've received is that there are more coming. Including ones that Netflix will produce themselves. Sure.
- [09:35]
B
I mean, look, they've taken meetings on a lot of these people, right. They took meetings on Alex Cooper. Alex Cooper just wanted way more money than Netflix was gonna pay for an experiment and for a show of that size.
- [09:45]
A
So why is Spotify doing this? Is the question? Is this an admission that maybe the shows weren't doing that well on YouTube or is this just A pure money play. Netflix is writing a big check. And this is how Spotify has chosen to monetize its podcast initiative that is largely pulled back from. Or is this Spotify looking for a way to grow its audience for these shows in any way possible? And Netflix can provide them that audience.
- [10:16]
B
Can it be all of those things? I mean, Spotify is still in the early stages of trying to bulk up its video business, right? Like Spotify is the biggest audio service in the world. And they have tried several times to make video a thing on Spotify. It has not worked. They are trying again with a focus on podcasts and creators who already have an audience for the most part, rather than trying to like create original programs.
- [10:42]
A
Even though they've shut down a number of their studios.
- [10:45]
B
Somewhat ironic.
- [10:46]
A
Yes.
- [10:46]
B
And they know that their platform as right now is not big enough in terms of video to be the only place to put these shows. And so yes, Netflix offers some money, more than they are going to get paid from, from YouTube. They offer the second biggest audience, potential exposure after YouTube. And Netflix is not really competition for Spotify.
- [11:08]
A
Not yet.
- [11:09]
B
Not yet. But it gives them some money and some reach. And it also pulls their shows from this site and YouTube that they're incredibly competitive with. Now, I would argue it's probably a net negative for the reach of those shows, but to your point, most of these programs aren't huge on YouTube yet. And you could see Bill and others experimenting with YouTube. It seems like they've had sort of.
- [11:34]
A
Mixed up it was all in listen. But it's really one of the only ringer shows that doesn't have video.
- [11:38]
B
But notably these shows now will not be available on YouTube because they will be exclusive to Netflix.
- [11:44]
A
Clips will, but not the whole thing. Yes, and that's a big deal. You're essentially, if you're Spotify, you're gambling that the reach of Netflix is better than the reach and monetization on YouTube.
- [11:57]
B
And the promotion. Something that YouTube doesn't do.
- [11:59]
A
Yes.
- [12:00]
B
Yeah, not something that Netflix also doesn't really do, but algorithmically pushing.
- [12:04]
A
Well, YouTube has the algorithm as well.
- [12:07]
B
Yeah, but there's a sea of things on YouTube that could be pushed to you versus what's available on Netflix.
- [12:12]
A
It's a more premium environment. I mean, if you're watching a movie that has a rewatchable device so that.
- [12:17]
B
Maybe it helps with the CPMs.
- [12:19]
A
Yeah, but. But they're not selling. I mean the Spotify ads are going to appear in these Spotify pods, but Netflix, at least at the start, is not selling ads on the ad tier around the Spotify.
- [12:29]
B
No, I. Yeah, I meant that the halo of being on Netflix versus YouTube would help Spotify brand.
- [12:33]
A
It's a cooler thing, honestly. It's just. Netflix is cooler than YouTube. Everyone's on YouTube. Not everyone's on Netflix.
- [12:39]
B
You think Netflix is cooler than YouTube?
- [12:41]
A
I think so, yeah. I think that.
- [12:43]
B
I don't know if I agree with that.
- [12:44]
A
There's. Every single podcast in the Universe is on YouTube, but now Bill Simmons can say, we are the cool studio. We are on Netflix.
- [12:53]
B
Netflix is more exclusive than YouTube. And being first in something is cool.
- [12:59]
A
Yes, but that brings up the other question, which is, does podcasts dilute the premiumness of Netflix? Is Netflix dragging itself into the sewer of YouTube?
- [13:14]
B
No.
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A
No. Why not?
- [13:16]
B
One, there's a lot of stuff on Netflix. Netflix wants to have a little something for everyone.
- [13:20]
A
They do, but they also have a bar for what is Netflix.
- [13:23]
B
They do, but there's a lot of unscripted programming that they have that I would consider of lower quality than podcasts. The other thing I'd say is they made, at least in this case, a partnership with. Sounds stupid saying it because it is their show. But people tend to like and respect. The ringer is not indulging in, like, really crass, gross stuff.
- [13:44]
A
It's not a barstool or one of those.
- [13:47]
B
Well, now you're just pandering to Bill. But.
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A
No, no, no. But listen, I have no horse in this. I know barstool as, like, Dave Portnoy sex video.
- [13:55]
B
They're not airing, like, a bunch of conspiracy theories. They're not, for the most part, doing a bunch of tabloidy stuff.
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A
Yes.
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B
It's writing. It's like talk. It's supposed to be somewhat intelligent talk about sports and culture.
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A
They say that they're the smartest guys.
- [14:08]
B
At the bar, and that fits into that. Fits on Netflix just fine.
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A
Okay.
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B
I think the real question is, will Netflix really push it? And how many people are gonna want to engage with this, or is it gonna be one of these things that's like, it's on Netflix, but most people don't know it's on Netflix?
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A
I think that's the case.
- [14:25]
B
Like, how games have been for a long time and they're trying to change it. Right. But Netflix has had games for almost four years, and if you ask the average person, I still don't know if they would be aware that Netflix has games. How dare you?
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A
Boggle. Boggle.
- [14:36]
B
I'm excited for Boggle.
- [14:38]
A
Someone said. Someone texted me this weekend about your interview with Greg Peters said, if you're talking about Boggle, you've got problems.
- [14:46]
B
You know, Jimmy Kimmel was very excited about Boggle.
- [14:49]
A
Okay, so maybe it'll become the words of Words with Friends of Netflix. But I do worry a little that this is not premium enough for Netflix. But I think that the way it's going to be served is if you watch a movie that has a rewatchables, you will be served a rewatchables after you finish the movie. If you watch something sports related on Netflix, you will get Bill Simmons talking about the Pats game right after you watch the Pats sports documentary or.
- [15:17]
B
And that episode of Bill Simmons cost them like $5,000.
- [15:21]
A
That's the thing, is it's just cheap shoulder programming that generates engagement and they will be able to capture whatever engagement they get from this. I think you're right. It's an experiment and it will go towards their number every month.
- [15:33]
B
Is there a cause? You keep harping on this premium thing and I'm a little confused. Is there like a podcast that you would consider more premium? Like if they had Smartless, and we know Ted Sarandos loves the smartless guys. Like, is that more premium than the ringer?
- [15:46]
A
No. No.
- [15:47]
B
Or like Smartless versus Good Head?
- [15:49]
A
I'm talking about the format. Got it. Like, they are gonna make these videos look better than they currently do, but at the end of the day, it is two people sitting in front of a computer talking. Right. And that doesn't feel premium to me. It's the same reason why Pat McAfee doesn't look the same. The same as some of the other studio shows that are on espn, but.
- [16:11]
B
He'S a bigger star.
- [16:12]
A
I agree. And they are fine to have three hours of Pat McAfee because it's cheap as hell and it rates and nobody cares anymore. I used to have to go into the studio to do a hit on a cable news show. Post Covid.
- [16:26]
B
Do it at night.
- [16:26]
A
I'm doing it at four in the morning, rolling out of bed and on my home studio. Nobody cares anymore about this stuff. YouTube has brought down the expectations for people of what they want to see out of video. So I think that. That it's okay to put that stuff on Netflix now, whereas maybe five, seven years ago people would have blanched.
- [16:47]
B
Listeners take note. Matt has a home studio.
- [16:50]
A
I don't. It's my living room.
- [16:52]
B
But.
- [16:52]
A
But you know what I'm saying. Okay, so let's talk about the YouTube angle. Does YouTube give a shit about this at all.
- [17:00]
B
A little bit.
- [17:01]
A
You think so?
- [17:01]
B
Yeah.
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A
Even though the ringer shows coming off.
- [17:05]
B
YouTube is like, will not matter.
- [17:07]
A
Infinitesimal for their volume, I don't think. I think it's a big flex by YouTube. I think YouTube is sort of the winner here because all it does is show that Netflix and Spotify, two of the biggest media companies in the world, are kind of freaking out about YouTube.
- [17:22]
B
Yeah, I think they pay attention anytime talent that they care about leaves the platform. Especially when like Neil Mohan, the head CEO of YouTube is like a big sports fan. He's definitely aware of Bill Simmons. He like, he's aware of the ringer. He likes the ringer. He wants people posting on YouTube. They've made podcasts huge priority. So I think they're aware of it and I don't. And I think they notice it and don't love it at the same time. To your point, it's not gonna matter to them at all. Like you could take a bunch of top podcasts off YouTube and it just wouldn't impact the business very much.
- [17:54]
A
Interesting you say that. Nick Kwa, the podcast expert at Vultr, he wrote a piece with Joe O'Dallion this past week and he said of Netflix and YouTube that quote, both seem to be continuously finding value in framing themselves not around specific types of content, but around being the default destination for any kind of viewing experience. So that's what's at stake here. Netflix has basically conquered the rest of the traditional entertainment companies in streaming and they're looking at the landscape and what's left. They're now going after YouTube and this is putting a toe in the water to try to do more YouTube style content.
- [18:34]
B
I think it would, it would trouble YouTube a lot more if you saw YouTube stars pulling off of YouTube and doing exclusive deals with Netflix. But as we've discussed before, I don't think that will happen.
- [18:46]
A
Yeah, we were texting about it and you said Hot Ones will never be off of YouTube. It will always be on YouTube and then maybe elsewhere.
- [18:54]
B
Yeah, they had conversations with Netflix about doing a series of live specials that never really came to. Came to be.
- [19:00]
A
So what is that for Netflix? That's just. Oh, more of the thing you already get on YouTube. The value in this ringer deal is it's being pulled off of YouTube and I don't think hot ones can monetize that as well. What does Netflix have to pay them to go off of YouTube?
- [19:15]
B
So, so much money because their audience is on YouTube. And why do they want to forsake.
- [19:19]
A
That, yeah, for money. Yeah.
- [19:22]
B
But they make enough money from YouTube as it is. Most of these YouTube channels see Netflix and other avenues as ways to add to the audience they already have on YouTube and the money that they get from YouTube. I've heard about people who Netflix has tried to go exclusive with.
- [19:37]
A
They say no and they say because the audience won't follow or because it's worth.
- [19:42]
B
My audience is on YouTube.
- [19:44]
A
Cocomelon and Ms. Rachel didn't leave YouTube.
- [19:46]
B
No, they didn't need to. And that's what that is the model for all of these companies.
- [19:51]
A
Yeah. And Spotify, I forgot to even mention that they just did a deal with Samsung to put the ringer shows on a fast channel.
- [19:58]
B
Yes. You can tell Spotify is trying to push their videos other places because there's not enough video consumption alone on Spotify, which is really interesting because they have cut off or forsaken a lot of their original owned programming, which is what you would use in these other places. And the ringer is basically what they.
- [20:16]
A
Have left because the ringer was working and a lot of the other stuff wasn't.
- [20:19]
B
I get it. Do you guys think this is a harbinger for late night eventually landing on Netflix if this works?
- [20:25]
A
I think Ted Sarandos is waiting for Lorne Michaels to retire and when that happens he's going to go full on after late night SNL type shows and things like that. I think out of respect to Lauren, Ted is not doing that, in my opinion.
- [20:39]
B
Well, they have, but they've tried late night. It just right.
- [20:42]
A
But not. Not in a serious way, in my opinion. They've done niche type shows. Mulaney, Hasan, Minhaj. They have not dropped a bunch of money on Jimmy Fallon to get him to leave or dropped a bunch of money on half the SNL cast to start a new show.
- [21:00]
B
Like Colbert is going away. If Kimmel's not on the air in three to five years, will one of those two or somebody else be on Netflix?
- [21:07]
A
I think yes, sure. It already happened. Doing everything else.
- [21:10]
B
It already happened with Letterman.
- [21:12]
A
Yeah. Letterman has a show.
- [21:13]
B
Yeah, but it's not a late night show.
- [21:15]
A
It's an interview show.
- [21:16]
B
It's like 10 a year. I mean it's completely different.
- [21:18]
A
It's not the same. Netflix would want something that would eat up hours and be live nightly, daily, stuff like that.
- [21:23]
B
Netflix doesn't do daily or nightly, but.
- [21:25]
A
A couple times a week or maybe a John Oliver style, 40 weeks a year, something like that. I think they will.
- [21:31]
B
They're gonna keep trying Topico Because Ted loves it.
- [21:34]
A
Yeah, I don't think.
- [21:36]
B
And they want the engagement. They want the same way that they now show WWE once a week because it's good for bringing people in. They'll do the same with some type of topical programming.
- [21:52]
A
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- [22:26]
B
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- [22:38]
A
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B
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- [22:54]
A
About my good friend Adam. Aaron. I think I'm prepared to say that he is our good friend. Cause you were there for our show. Our good. He's our good friend.
- [23:01]
B
I think you spend a lot more time talking to him than I do.
- [23:05]
A
I am very excited for him because he got to announce that the standoff with Netflix is, I guess, over or thawing. The icy relationship is thawing. Amc, which refused to play the Demon Hunters movie when it was in theaters last time, went to number one. Anyways, they are going to put it in theaters for Halloween. Will presumably be big again because this is a huge movie and kids want to dress up and go see it.
- [23:33]
B
But probably not as big as it was in August when it was the first time.
- [23:36]
A
Probably not, you're right. But they get to say that quote this is Adam on Twitter where he likes to speak. While the two companies have not had a commercial relationship in recent years, both Netflix and AMC are intrigued by the mutually beneficial opportunities that could arise from this and future collaboration. Very convoluted way of saying we really want to do more deals. So what does this mean and more importantly, what does this not mean for AMC and Netflix?
- [24:04]
B
Well, you, you wrote the initial story, so what do you think it means and not mean?
- [24:07]
A
I think it means more stunts to start. Netflix is not backing away from the, you know, not our model theaters are outmoded.
- [24:15]
B
You're not gonna see Netflix movies exclusive to theaters for four to six weeks.
- [24:19]
A
No. They did the IMAX Narnia thing as a favor to Greta Gerwig. And you know, it's a specific IMAX thing that is a month long window. Even though it's only two weeks in theaters. I don't think Netflix is going to start releasing their movies in theaters for four weeks in wide releases. Don't think that's going to happen. But I think we are going to see more stunts. I know they're already talking about additional things. And you'll see some of these bigger movies go one weekend, you know, a couple weeks after the fact. I do think we might see a couple day in dates where the movie is big enough where they will play it that opening weekend in some kind of a stunt situation. The key for AMC is to manage this without blowing up the relationships with the traditional exhibitors.
- [25:02]
B
Well, that's the funny part about all this to me is in terms of stunts and some of those limited releases is something that Netflix, I think would have done for a long time.
- [25:11]
A
So you see this as a concession by amc?
- [25:13]
B
A little bit.
- [25:14]
A
Okay. Even though Adam's out there cheerleading this.
- [25:16]
B
Yeah. Because he's getting movies from Netflix. But he could have had. If you think back to when they had conversations around the Irishman. Right. Like that boiled down to 45 versus 60 days. That's the type of window that AMC mandated.
- [25:29]
A
But that was seven years ago.
- [25:31]
B
Totally get it. And even now the theaters are yelling at traditional studios like, people don't love the universal 17 day window before it goes to P VOD. Right. They think it's too short. Where before you can rent it.
- [25:43]
A
I agree with that.
- [25:44]
B
Rent it at home. And so they want people to do at least a month in theaters. 45 days is like optimal for some of these people. You're gonna let Netflix have no window for stunt program? It's fine. But it's a sign of the fact that they just need more product. They wouldn't be doing it if the traditional studios were giving them enough product.
- [26:01]
A
And that's what they can say to Disney and Universal. Give us more movies and we won't have to do this. You rely on us being a going forward business. And in order for us to be a going forward business, we're going to do this. And I don't think when I say that they may be interested in day and date, I don't think that's going to be for the big movies. I think Maybe TV shows, some of their big franchise TV shows will be there.
- [26:22]
B
What I'm curious about is like, K Pop only came to theaters after it blew up. Right. They saw this. This was all about marketing and an opportunity to sort of continue the momentum of this project. Are they gonna pick projects in advance or are they gonna wait and see?
- [26:41]
A
What.
- [26:41]
B
Cause like, use an example from this year. Like Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein is a movie that people should probably see on a big screen if they can.
- [26:50]
A
Well, to placate del Toro, they did.
- [26:52]
B
Do a limited release.
- [26:54]
A
A limited release.
- [26:54]
B
Correct.
- [26:55]
A
And he's been touting it on social media. And I don't know how many people are going to see this in theaters because Netflix is not releasing numbers. But probably very small and not something that's meaningful to the overall.
- [27:07]
B
And Netflix isn't really pushing that at all because they want people to watch.
- [27:10]
A
It at home, which is Ted Sarandis whole thing.
- [27:13]
B
Yeah. Or with Craig's favorite movie, Happy Gilmore 2. They knew that was going to be a big movie. Would they have done. I know they put it in a couple theaters, but would they have done like an AMC stunt release?
- [27:23]
A
But maybe a month after where it's like, hey, guys, Fourth of July, come with all your bros and watch Happy Gilmore 2. Maybe that would be okay. Maybe the people would do that.
- [27:34]
B
Or do you do. Cause so many of these hits for Netflix kind of come out of nowhere. Like when Squid Game was first popping up, would they have done like a go and see Squid Game in theaters for one weekend only? I don't know.
- [27:47]
A
Yeah, I think Stranger Things, the finale.
- [27:50]
B
Will be in theaters. Well, I've always been confused as to why. Like, why wasn't Game of Thrones always in theaters?
- [27:56]
A
They wanted it, but they broke down on. There was all sorts of exhibitor problems, but it makes sense. It's two hours, it's coming out New Year's Eve. Like do a day and date deal and have it in theaters. No brainer. Right. Doesn't hurt the movie studios. It's not even a movie, it's a TV show, so why not do that?
- [28:16]
B
I'll be curious though, because obviously K Pop Demon Hunters did quite well in that one weekend stunt, but I feel like the other. That and the second Knives out movie are like the two examples of Netflix movies that worked in theaters and basically nothing else, correct me if I'm wrong, has really popped.
- [28:35]
A
That is correct.
- [28:36]
B
Like, if they do evolve, well, they.
- [28:37]
A
Would argue that Roma did amazing and Latin America, whatever.
- [28:41]
B
I don't believe that but so what if they. Because some of this is AMC wanting more product and some of this is Netflix saying, hey, this stunt thing really worked because Netflix is all about test work.
- [28:52]
A
Do more test work, blow everyone away.
- [28:56]
B
So, like, what if they do five more and then none of those work?
- [28:59]
A
I know. Good question. Will you be at your local AMC theater on Halloween in your hunt tricks outfit watching K Pop Demon Hunters, you and your squad?
- [29:10]
B
No. So I was supposed to be in Ojai that weekend. Okay. But now the Dodgers being in the World Series has complicated it, so I don't know if I will be there. But at the end in Ojai that they like redid, they are doing K Pop Demon Hunters sing alongs. Oh, and I asked Camila if she wanted to go to that, and she said, no, thank you. So we were not going to do that.
- [29:30]
A
All right, well, I don't believe I will be there either, but I'm sure a lot of people will. Thank you, Lucas.
- [29:35]
B
Thanks, Matt.
- [29:37]
A
All right, we're back with the call sheet. We asked Lucas to stay. Very important. Apple finally acknowledged what we all knew and what Eddie Q. Danced around when he was on the show. Last week, they announced a 5 year, $140 million a year per CNBC deal to broadcast F1 in the US not the movie that's coming to Apple as well in December, but the actual F1 races are coming to Apple TV exclusive in the US what they want, they want to own a league. They do not want to have multiple, you know, parts of a multiple package type deal. Lucas, I have a prediction based on this, but what do you think of this deal? It's much higher than the 90 million a year that ESPN was paying.
- [30:23]
B
This continues the trend of Apple only buys the rights to sports leagues that nobody else wants to pay that much for.
- [30:31]
A
Well, they say it's because they want to own everything. And in the modern sports, ever the movie and all.
- [30:36]
B
Yeah.
- [30:36]
A
Apple, you can't own the NFL.
- [30:38]
B
Right.
- [30:39]
A
You can't own the NBA. And the only stuff that you can own is necessarily going to be the. The garbage. Not garbage. The lesser leads less desired. Yes.
- [30:47]
B
Right. They have. Apple has struggled to close deals or not even come close to closing deals with things like the NBA and NFL because it spends a lot of money. And all you get is sort of one of many packages. It does not feel special. It's similar reason why Netflix has not done any of these deals.
- [31:01]
A
Yeah, you'd think Netflix would be in on this because they have drive to survive.
- [31:05]
B
And they were. They have bid both times, both when ESPN took it previously and then this time, but they were not willing to pay as much. And I think Netflix feels a little bit like we helped make this thing popular. We should have basically bought this thing, like, at the beginning and benefited from it, rather than having to keep paying more and more for something that we are hyping up.
- [31:25]
A
Right. Well, and that's my prediction today, is I think that the viewership for F1 on Apple is going to be dwarfed by the viewership of Drive to Survive season eight, when that premieres in March on Netflix, which will be highly ironic considering Netflix helped popularize this sport in the US and it's going to be getting the viewers for the sport that perhaps Apple would want from the live matches and isn't necessarily getting.
- [31:53]
B
Yeah, I mean, look, that's a safe bet just because of how much bigger Netflix's audience is than Apple.
- [31:58]
A
And even on ESPN, it was only F1 races were only getting, like, low 1 million.
- [32:02]
B
Right. And if we use the MLS as comparison, the audience for F1 is probably gonna drop by at least 50%. I'm sure they've mapped that all out. They just think it's worth it because of how much money they're getting. PA part of public company.
- [32:13]
A
And I think F1 is always like, it's primarily a European phenomenon. And if they can get any American audience and get some money out of.
- [32:20]
B
It, the US has mattered to them for their growth. And look, the audience for Drive to Survive has gone down several seasons in a row. It sort of peaked, I don't know, with season three or four or something, but they still get millions of viewers for each episode, which you will not get for each episode.
- [32:34]
A
Well, how many Netflix shows get a season eight that tells you everything?
- [32:38]
B
Yeah, not a lot.
- [32:39]
A
Love is Blind.
- [32:40]
B
Grace and Frankie.
- [32:40]
A
Grace and Frankie. Love is Blind and this. So, yeah. So you agree with my prediction? It's not even gonna be close.
- [32:46]
B
Yeah, I mean, it's a little. It is a little bit apples and oranges, but this is probably the rare sport where the documentary about the sport gets a bigger audience than the sport. And the only tricky part with that, I guess I'd say, which the league would probably counter, is the numbers we're getting from Netflix are global numbers, and we're comparing those to US Viewers. I bet if we compared the US Audience for Drive to Survive, it would be smaller than you think. So I'd have to look it up. And look, because they have appeared in the Nielsen charts, I would have to look it up.
- [33:18]
A
Oh, right. Yeah.
- [33:19]
B
But I bet that is more comparable or even smaller because the Global audience for F1 dwarfs the audience for Drive Survival.
- [33:26]
A
Of course. Yes. But that's not what we're talking about. And that's not what Apple bought.
- [33:30]
B
I bet the US Numbers are closer and the races probably might not draw them. How much will this increase the Apple subs? Do you think this will be the biggest driver for Apple subs, basically, since the beginning of Apple TV.
- [33:41]
A
The question is, is F1 going to be a bigger driver of subs to Apple than the MLS games? And I think it will be. And the numbers we have seen on MLS were not big.
- [33:55]
B
It's terrible. So much so that the people involved in the league have expressed a little bit of frustration, remorse, regret.
- [34:01]
A
Yes. As they cash the checks.
- [34:03]
B
Yes. But neither one of these is going to be that big. And even. Even though Netflix hasn't done the big packages like they're. When they've gone after sports, the audience has been substantial, whether it's Christmas day, football or boxing or whatever.
- [34:16]
A
Yeah, I know. All right, so we will ultimately compare season eight of Drive to Survive in the US with the match by match ratings for Apple's.
- [34:25]
B
Yeah, I think I now do.
- [34:26]
A
If we get those, I now get the grief. Oh, you do?
- [34:29]
B
I think now remembering that the Drive to Survive numbers are global, I think. Yeah. Well, although the numbers are going to go down. So much for athlete.
- [34:36]
A
First of all, you make a prediction. Don't waffle here. Craig tried this last week with the box office. Just make a prediction.
- [34:44]
B
I'll stand by you. But we need to get the numbers, which we won't get.
- [34:47]
A
Okay, well, in March, we'll have some numbers. We'll have some numbers, so we'll do it. All right. That's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horlbeck, artist or Jesse Lopez. And I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week. And Doug, here we have the Limu emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Limu is that guy with the binoculars. Others watching us cut the camera. They see us.
- [35:22]
B
Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Savings Fairy underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates, excludes Massachusetts.