Netflix's Growth, Peacock's Struggles, and the New Streaming Hierarchy

Summary

Podcast Summary:

The Town with Matthew Belloni
Episode: Netflix's Growth, Peacock's Struggles, and the New Streaming Hierarchy
Date: February 3, 2026
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)
Host: Matthew Belloni

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Main Theme

This episode breaks down the fast-changing landscape of streaming, concentrating on the recent numbers and trends that highlight the strengths and weaknesses of major platforms—especially Netflix and Peacock. Through a game of “most meaningful numbers,” Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw use fresh data to debate the streaming pecking order, the phenomenon of “legacy hits,” platform profitability, and the ongoing influence of the biggest shows and movies on subscriber strategies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Peacock’s Mounting Losses

• Highlighted Number: $552 million — Peacock’s recent quarterly loss, up from $372 million the prior year ([04:13])

  • Despite revenue increases and growth to 44 million subscribers, profitability remains elusive.
  • Lucas: “They had two quarters in a row of not growing... They had to spend a lot of money to get there.” ([05:32])
  • Big investments in NBA rights have increased costs, but regular season games may not deliver the needed impact.
  • Lucas: “The NBA is a very popular sport, but its most popular moment is the playoffs… The regular season games are tough.” ([06:25])

• Churn Concerns:

  • Peacock's subscriber churn hit 8-9% recently, well above the industry average of 5-6%. (Netflix is at 1-2%) ([08:49])
  • Lucas: “If you have a significant portion of your customer base canceling every month or two and then you gotta spend money to regain them… it's a very vicious cycle.” ([08:49])
  • Efforts to keep sports fans engaged year-round (beyond NFL season) by adding NBA and MLB.

• Strategic Questions:

  • Will Comcast/NBCU merge, acquire, or wait for market shake-ups (e.g., Paramount potentially dropping out, antitrust blocking Netflix)? ([10:02])

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2. Netflix’s Unmatched Dominance – ‘Stranger Things’ Effect

• Highlighted Numbers:

  • 8.7 billion: Minutes viewed of ‘Stranger Things’ in one week ([12:14])
  • 56.6 million: Season 1 Netflix views (second half of last year)
  • All four top streaming shows per Nielsen were ‘Stranger Things’ seasons ([13:48])

• Legacy IP Drives Rewatches:

  • Older seasons of ‘Stranger Things’ still outperform new hits.
  • Anticipation for the series finale boosted numbers, and Netflix times drops to maximize retention and minimize churn.
  • Matt: “The comps next year are going to be bad… they're probably already strategizing what they can put into December of next year so the comps aren't horrible.” ([13:48])
  • Lucas: “Both [‘Stranger Things’ and ‘Squid Game’] ended in 2025 and the third, ‘Wednesday,’ got that third season out of Jenna Ortega, but we know that that show's not going to live forever.” ([14:49])

• Future of Netflix’s Big IP:

  • Discussion about Netflix’s ability to spin off or sustain ‘Stranger Things’ universe.
  • Acknowledgment that expanding the universe (like HBO with Thrones) is difficult, due to aging cast and smaller setting ([16:30])

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3. Netflix’s Blockbuster Movie Moment: ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’

• Highlighted Number:
  • 20.5 billion: Minutes viewed for ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’—over twice any other streaming movie ([19:03])
  • Signals potential for Netflix movies to generate cultural buzz, but is still rare.
  • Matt: “This is proof that a Netflix movie can be a cultural phenomenon. Do they have anything else that qualifies? No… Will it put up huge numbers? Yes… That’s just the way we are.” ([19:32])
  • The formula for streaming movie hits skews towards animated/kid-friendly titles with catchy music—mirroring the theatrical space.

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4. The “Non-Netflix” Hits & Streaming Platform Hierarchy

• Love Island’s Staggering Numbers:

  • 18.4 billion: Minutes viewed claimed by Luminate for Peacock’s ‘Love Island’ ([22:53])
  • Matt and Lucas express skepticism about its claimed lead over ‘Stranger Things’: “Trying to tell me Love Island was bigger than Stranger Things and I just don’t believe it.” ([23:35])

• Landman vs. Reacher:

  • ‘Reacher’ (Prime Video) vs. ‘Landman’ (Paramount): Lucas believes ‘Landman’ leads in the US, while ‘Reacher’ is bigger globally, thanks to Amazon’s size outside the US ([23:59])

• If Starting a Streaming Platform…

  • Both would choose an endlessly replicable show like ‘Love Island’ or ‘Love is Blind’ over a big-budget scripted hit, due to cost and longevity ([24:58])

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5. The Power of Licensed Legacy Shows

• Netflix’s share of original “hits” declines, while legacy titles like Bluey and Grey’s Anatomy dominate viewership ([26:01])

  • Adding old series to Netflix spikes viewership, regardless of original platform.
  • Matt: “Netflix is very smart about the windowing where they get all these shows… They become huge. And then it's like everyone's this ravenous tiger that eats it up and then… they're done with it.” ([27:10])

• Animated sitcoms (‘Bob’s Burgers’, ‘Family Guy’) are evergreen, always ranking in the top 10 on Nielsen ([28:12])

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6. Hierarchy Among Streamers in 2026

• Dominance of Netflix: Still in a league of its own.
• Second Tier: Amazon, Disney bundle (Disney+/Hulu/ESPN)
• Third Tier: Peacock, Paramount+, HBO Max.
  • Despite being treated as inferior, these also rack up hits, particularly in unscripted and acquired content ([29:48])
  • No new shows broke into the top 10 in 2025 — a marked change from earlier years ([30:48])
  • Question: Is this maturity, creative malaise, or a function of platforms doubling down on surefire hits each year?

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7. Disney’s Changing Revenue Sources

• Theme Parks Now Disney’s Profit Engine:

  • Theme parks and cruises generated over $10 billion in revenue this quarter.
  • Account for 60-70% of company profits; cable and TV revenue have been eclipsed.
  • Streaming profits, meanwhile, are disappointing.
  • Matt: “The parks are just going crazy right now. Price hikes have not hurt the company… They have been able to withstand the economic uncertainty, the tariffs, the opening of a Universal park in Orlando… has not [dented] the revenue at the parks and cruises division” ([34:19])
  • Host predicts Disney will continue price hikes, noting no “tipping point” yet for customer resistance ([35:10])

• ESPN’s Value and Uncertain Future:

  • ESPN is now valued at $30 billion (per new NFL deal), but rising sports rights threaten profitability ([35:33])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Peacock’s Losses:
  “That is up from a $372 million loss in the quarter a year ago… How long can this go on?” — Matt ([04:28])

• On Subscriber Churn:
  “If you have a significant portion of your customer base canceling every month or two… it's a very vicious cycle.” — Lucas ([08:49])

• On Stranger Things Rewatches:
  “All smaller than people rewatching Stranger Things or discovering it for the first time because they're excited for the finale... so much bigger than basically every other everything else on television.” — Lucas ([12:05])

• On Netflix Movie Moments:
  “This is proof that a Netflix movie can be a cultural phenomenon. Do they have anything else that qualifies? No.” — Matt ([19:32])

• On Licensed Show Windowing:
  “Netflix is very smart about the windowing where they get all these shows. They become huge, and then it's like everyone's this ravenous tiger that eats it up and then they spit it out and they're done with it.” — Matt ([27:10])

• On Streaming Platform Hierarchy:
  “Netflix is kind of in a tier of its own, and then it's Amazon and the larger Disney package, and then you've got Peacock, Paramount and HBO Max next.” — Lucas ([29:48])

• On Disney’s Pivot:
  “It used to be that cable television was the leading revenue driver at Disney. Now that has completely changed. It's the parks division.” — Matt ([35:33])

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Important Segments + Timestamps

• [04:13] — Peacock’s $552M loss, NBA spending, and platform viability
• [08:49] — Peacock’s high subscriber churn and sports programming strategy
• [12:14] — ‘Stranger Things’: record-breaking weeks & importance to Netflix
• [19:03] — 'K-Pop Demon Hunters' smashes streaming movie records
• [22:53] — Love Island’s “biggest” status, Reacher vs. Landman debate
• [26:01] — Licensed show dominance (Bluey, Grey’s Anatomy, etc.)
• [29:48] — Streaming pecking order & lack of new breakout hits
• [34:19] — Disney’s parks & cruises record revenue, strategy shift

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Tone and Style Note

The conversation remains analytical but openly skeptical, quick-witted, and laced with friendly sarcasm. Both speakers challenge the industry’s hype cycles, questioning data credibility (e.g., Love Island’s reported dominance), and offering unvarnished industry commentary.

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Summary Takeaway

The new streaming hierarchy remains clear: Netflix holds a unique, unassailable lead, powered by enduring, broadly appealing franchises and strategic windowing. Meanwhile, Peacock’s troubled profitability and high churn threaten its future despite recent growth, and all platforms increasingly rely on legacy “comfort” shows and global unscripted formats for steady viewing. Disney, meanwhile, finds its real financial engine in the tangible magic of parks and cruises—not streaming. The golden age of new streaming hits may be cooling, replaced by a mature, more cautious, and comfort-seeking viewer base.

Transcript

[A]

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[A]

It is Monday, February 2nd. Before we start, some big news for the town. We're on YouTube. Yes, video has come for the town. Same show still in all the platforms you currently use. Just now available with my face and my dodger hats on YouTube and Spotify. The Town with Matt Bellany. Follow us with the link in the episode description. Please be nice in the comments. Craig gets his feelings hurt very easily. All right, onto the show. It's February, so we are officially done with the year end charts and data and everything about what entertainment we all consumed in 2025. Stats have been coming fast and furious. Netflix's numbers were way up, but share of the top shows declined. K Pop Demon Hunters blew away all the other movies, but Netflix made a lot fewer movies in 25 than the previous few years. The biggest show of the year according to Luminate, was Love Island. Really, with Stranger Things just dominating in December, feels a bit dubious. Heated rivalry generated 8 million views per episode in December. Not bad, but not good enough for Nielsen's chart. Even today, Disney's earnings report revealed some growth in streaming but disappointing numbers in streaming profits. And Comcast just announced another huge quarterly loss for Peacock. Remember back in 2020, Comcast predicted Peacock will be profitable in 2025, not so much in 2026. Feels like there's been a flood of new streaming data lately, so we've got Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg back in here to discuss. We're each gonna pick a couple big numbers that illustrate the market right now and debate what they say about the current moment in streaming. So today it's the latest front in the streaming wars. Who's up, down and barely staying alive from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. This episode of the Town is presented by the Walt Disney Animation Studios, Zootopia 2. Now nominated for the Academy Award for best animated feature, the Hollywood reporter hails Zootopia 2, knocks it out of the park with its dazzling visuals, sophisticated humor and genuine emotion. For your consideration for best animated feature. All right, we are here with Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg, back once again after a week hiatus. We missed you, Lucas. Welcome back.

[C]

You know, I had to be here for the first video episode. I know not to mute myself seven times during the course of the show.

[A]

I can't wait to see the thumbnail. We are going to do a little game today. We are going to name our most interesting stats from the first kind of month or two of the year. And most of them are stuff that's coming out about the end of the year. Like we get bombarded with data in January from all the different services telling us what shows are doing well, what shows are not. What has set a record. Nielsen will inform us that it's a record for football once again because of their new metric that counts a whole bunch more people. So I'm going to name a couple of my most interesting, most meaningful stats. You will do the same and then we will discuss. You understand the game?

[C]

I think so.

[A]

This is not a draft. There are no winners or losers.

[C]

There are always winners and losers.

[A]

That's true. Okay, so I'll go first. I'm going to start with a stat that just came out this week. 552 million.

[C]

Can I guess?

[A]

Yes. You know what that is, right?

[C]

Yes, I think I do. I just stepped on it.

[A]

But yes, the quarterly loss at Peacock. Sad trombone. Like, what is. How long can this go on? That is up from a 372 million loss in the quarter of a year ago. The revenue's up, but they're just not making money on Peacock. This is the last of the wannabe general interest streamers that is still not profitable. Like, how long can they support this?

[C]

Well, I think the annual losses were down or. Yes, better than they had been. But the quarterly was. Was up.

[A]

And we know there was the NBA deal kicked in.

[C]

Correct.

[A]

They.

[C]

They had initially said that this would be about the point that the service would be profitable. And I think there are two reasons it's not. One is it didn't grow maybe quite as much as 45.

[A]

They're up to 44 million subs, which is 8 million more than a year ago. And they are showing growth on that side, it's like they're losing.

[C]

They had two quarters in a row of not growing. Which is why the analyst response was actually not horrible because there was growth. It's just they had to spend a lot of money to get there. Right. The NBA is incredibly expensive and the way that they account for it, a lot of some of that NBA money is on Peacocks books. So its losses go up and that's only going to increase as the years go on because the deal gets more expensive. So they need that to not only drive new subsequent but they need it to become really powerful advertising. And you know, I think it's a reasonable question whether it will be as effective as people think. There have been some really smart posts I've seen about how like the average NBA game on NBC is getting a smaller rating than the stuff that was on NBC before that. Oftentimes, you know, the NBA is a very popular sport, but its most popular moment is the playoffs and in particular.

[A]

The finals and the marquee teams that can drive national viewership.

[C]

Yeah, the regular season games are tough. Right. I'm a huge basketball fan. But there's, there's now national games on six, seven nights a week. Not all the best players play every day or they're. Some of the best players in the league are hurt right now. So you're not going to get people to come every single night.

[A]

Yeah. And that's a long term play. They know that. You know, when you buy these big sports packages you're buying it for the moments when there is a streak or playoffs or kind of, you know, moments that drive ratings. And every random Tuesday isn't going to be that.

[C]

Right. But do you think so? Do you. But if you're Comcast, if you're NBC Universal and I don't know if this where you're going like do they think that they have to do something dramatic or do they feel like they now have the pieces between NBA Olympics, all this other stuff that they can go. Because the concern that I'd have, I guess if I were them is it feels like from a programming perspective, setting sports aside, like they'll have a couple of huge hits a year and then sort of nothing in between. And so they're or nothing that pops. And so they're not building that steady cadence. And they've done these very smart or financially savvy movie deals where they start on Peacock and then go to Netflix and that should boost them in a year where Universal Pictures going to have a great year. But we know that Most of the viewership of, of the Odyssey and of Minions and all. And, and Mario 2 is going to be on Netflix.

[A]

Oh, absolutely. And I'm not sure how much that first window actually matters that much. I mean, I know it does for certain things, for the kids stuff. My kid knows to go there for the big movies and when they debut there, they do chart on Nielsen. So it does matter a little bit. But it's not an exclusive all the time arrangement like Disney where you have to be continuously if you want.

[C]

Moana, you got to watch Disney, right?

[A]

Exactly. And you know, there's a trade off there. They get a ton of money for selling these shows and movies to Netflix, but there is a trade off. I mean, Brian Roberts, the CEO of Comcast, he said this is one of his excuses. He says, I just think we came to this late because of our Hulu 1/3 ownership which we have been able to monetize. Basically blaming the fact that they got caught up in Hulu for a bunch of years and weren't able to focus on on Peacock. And yes, they did get Disney to pay them billions of dollars for that steak. But I don't think that's an excuse anymore. You gotta do something with Peacock.

[C]

I think it would have been better honestly for both sides if Comcast had ended up with Hulu like five years ago because it would have allowed Disney to focus on Disney and it would have let Comcast have its own service. And I think it would be a more competitive and kind of straightforward marketplace. I forgot the other stat on Peacock though, that really would concern me if I were them. Is their churn the last few, few quarter or few months according to Antenna, is way above everyone else. And I think some of this is cyclical, but they're in the like 8, 9% the last few months. The industry average is more like five or six. Netflix is down at one or two. It's. That's what gets expensive is if you have a significant portion of your customer base canceling every month or two and then you got to spend money to regain them only to see them cancel again. It's a very vicious cycle.

[A]

Well, but isn't that why they're going all in on NBA and mlb to give those football fans on Peacock something else sports related the rest of the year so that they can prevent those people from signing up in September and canceling in January?

[C]

Totally. It's just a question of how many people are going to not churn for, for those sports year round.

[A]

You know, and to answer your previous Question. I do think they have something up their sleeve. They've got to want to do something with Peacock, whether it's sitting around and waiting for, you know, maybe Netflix to get blocked by the government or Paramount to decide, you know, Larry Ellison saying, I'm not doing this anymore. Or maybe the government says, great Netflix. You can buy Warner Brothers, but you have to divest hbo.

[C]

It would be pretty hilarious if the government blocked the Netflix deal. And then there was another bidding war, but this time between Comcast and Paramount.

[A]

For Warner Brothers, totally within the realm of possibility. Or they have to divest it, and then they have to find a buyer, and then they go up against each other. You know, Paramount and Comcast together. They divested hbo. You know, we'll see. Donald Trump made some comments again at the Melania premiere about how one of these bidders may have some trouble. Might be a monopoly here. I have a feeling I know which one he was talking about in that case, but. All right, let's go on to the second big number from the past month or so that you would like to throw out.

[C]

I would like to throw out the viewership of Stranger Things.

[A]

Give me the number. Give me the number so I can get. Oh, you just blew it. Never mind.

[C]

So I can start over.

[A]

No, no, no. We're live. Do it.

[C]

We're live. Okay. The old season of Stranger Things. So I'll run through these. Stranger Things season one. Netflix views 56.6 million in the second half of last year. Stranger Things season two, 44.6 million. Stranger Things season four. 43 million. I can keep going. Keep in mind, these are bigger than new seasons of Emily in Paris. Nobody wants this. Hunting Wives. Basically a who's who of some of the biggest Netflix hits from the second half of last year, all smaller than people rewatching Stranger Things in or discovering.

[A]

It for the first time because it's been a while.

[C]

Discovering it for the first time because they're excited for the finale of the show, which is so much bigger than basically every other everything else on television.

[A]

Yeah, my big number that I was going to throw out is 8.7 billion, which is the minutes viewed of Stranger Things in the final week of December. According to Nielsen. That is by far the biggest ever recorded, and it is so much bigger than any other show. It's. It's kind of amazing how much Stranger Things is just. Has just pulled away. Is your.

[C]

I. I forget, is your. Is your kid too young for Stranger Things or did.

[A]

Yeah, he's not into it.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

He's not into it. And I'm too old. So I, I, that is not something that our household views do.

[C]

We think that they, So I feel like anytime one of these kind of generation defining shows ends, like what, what used to always happen with HBO is the Sopranos is over. What's going to happen to hbo? Game of Thrones is over. What's going or True Blood is over, what's going to happen to hbo? Game of Thrones is over, what's going to happen to hbo? And they, and Casey Bloys loves to trot that out because guess what? HBO has Survive every single one. And I think we both feel like Netflix will probably be fine.

[A]

Oh yeah, they will. But okay, continue.

[C]

Yeah, but this has to hurt, right? Because this is, it's their biggest hit by far. It's the only thing where if you were like, if someone were trying to buy Netflix and you're like, we always say, like, what's the valuable ip? Stranger Things is at the very top of the list. And they clearly used it strategically in Q4. They drop it around Thanksgiving, they drop it around Christmas, they drop it around New Year's. It's maximize viewership at the biggest moments and reduce churn by having it drop at the very end of a, of a month.

[A]

Yeah, the comps next year are going to be bad. Like, they're probably already strategizing what they can put into December of next year. So the comps aren't horrible. But I mean, if you look at the numbers Nielsen just put out four, the four top shows are all Stranger Things seasons. I mean, it's amazing and like, Landman is a big show, but it was about five times as big as Landman and that's, it's just crazy. So you've got, I mean, until they can get the spinoffs going because, you know, the spinoffs are coming, I think.

[C]

And they have Duffer Brothers shows coming this year, but maybe they do have another Duffer, but they're not Stranger Things spinoffs. Right.

[A]

And, and I think that they would like a Stranger Things spin off very soon to not just get that audience, but to reignite the Stranger Things machine. Because my kid will be in that age group very soon. I'm sure he's going to discover it. I'm sure he's going to want to watch it. If there's an impetus coming, like a new show, he will probably do that.

[C]

Well, two of the three biggest shows in Netflix history, Squid Game and Stranger Things, both ended in 2025 and the third Wednesday they got that third season out of Jenna Ortega. But we know that that show's not going to live forever. That's true.

[A]

I know there are all the seasons of Stranger Things are Now in the 10 biggest single week streaming totals for Nielsen, the chart I'm looking at. But also Wednesday, is there two of them? And then Tiger King and Ozark, the Duffer Brothers show.

[D]

Something very bad is going to happen is going to launch on March 26th on Netflix.

[A]

Okay, there we go. But it's not Stranger Things. All right. Anything else you would like to say about Stranger Things other than it's really effing big? No.

[D]

Do you think they'll capitalize on this show? Like, do you think Spin Offs and the Stranger Things cinematic universe will be successful?

[C]

That was my question.

[A]

Yeah, I do. I mean, really, the loyalty there seems pretty strong. I don't watch the show, so I don't know creatively what would work, but I think that they could do it. Why not?

[D]

I think it's really hard to follow stuff up like that. I mean, things can be much, much smaller and maybe it'll be successful on a smaller scale.

[A]

And the duffers aren't going to be at the company. The duffers are going to be at Paramount.

[C]

How do we judge the Game of Thrones spin offs?

[A]

They're fine.

[C]

No, but. Right. So, like. But has that been successful for hbo? None of them are as big as Thrones, but they're all. They all do pretty well.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

And it's that audience that signs up for it. I mean, they keep doing them.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So, you know, they wouldn't do them. They're very expensive.

[D]

I think the nature of Stranger Things and what happens to the characters and them aging out of kind of the adolescence that made the show so fun. I think it's going to be really tough to get any of them to come back and do anything.

[C]

But none of the. But none of the. None of the. None of the Throne spin offs or most of them didn't sort of involve the actors or.

[D]

It just feels like Thrones is a whole world. It's a whole. It's a whole, you know, era that you can explore. Stranger Things is about a small town in Indiana and all the kids are old now. I don't know how you.

[C]

You can. You can do things that are sort of thematically similar, but they're not. They're. They're just. Yeah, they're not going to be the same.

[A]

It's kids fighting monsters with 80s references.

[D]

Well, I have to imagine. I have to imagine it's part of the reason why Netflix let these guys leave because they kind of realized they sucked all the juice they could out of them. And then you let them go.

[A]

Well, yeah, maybe they'll come back. They'll strategically use them to appear in different episodes of the spinoffs to make some connection. That's my guess.

[C]

They let them leave because they wanted to make movies for theaters and Netflix wasn't going to be able to.

[A]

Oh, you mean the Duffers. Right. But I'm talking about the actors. All of them except Millie Bobby Brown are probably standing by their phones waiting.

[C]

For the call for the spinoffs.

[B]

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[A]

All right, let's give us another number here.

[C]

I'm going to stick with massive Netflix numbers. 20.5. Or I guess it's like 20 billion, but 20,000 million minutes.

[A]

That's 20 billion.

[C]

Yeah. No, I guess it's 20 billion. I said it down. Don't question the math. 20 billion. 20.5 billion minutes viewed for K Pop demon hunters. More than twice as big as any other movie on streaming last year.

[A]

Oh my God. Are we going to do the. Is Netflix movies back? Are we or not? Have they arrived?

[C]

It's are we're going to do the. Is this proof that Netflix movies can be a cultural moment or is this just a one off thing?

[A]

What do you mean? What do you say?

[C]

Yes, you've been.

[A]

Wait, can both be true? Can both Be true? Yes. This is proof that a Netflix movie can be a cultural phenomenon. Do they have anything else that qualifies? No. Is the RIP a cultural phenomenon? No. Will it put up pretty huge numbers? Yes. Craig watched it. Can Craig remember anything that happened in the second half of the movie? No.

[D]

How dare you. Yes, I can.

[A]

That's just the way we are.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

I mean, are you going to disagree?

[C]

I guess I feel like I. I often forget what happens in movies that.

[A]

You see in theaters.

[C]

That I see in theaters.

[A]

Right.

[C]

If you. Do you want me to tell you exactly what happened in what Train Dreams? I saw at home, the Netflix movie. But do you want me to tell you, you know, beat for beat, what happens in One Battle or Sinners, which I saw months ago.

[A]

You understand what I'm saying? These movies roll in, roll out, and they do not catch the zeitgeist the same way that a theatrical hit catches the zeitgeist. It's still true. The only reason.

[C]

Have you been pondering Marty supreme since you saw it in theaters?

[A]

I remember what happened. Craig saw it twice.

[D]

Don't Dox.

[A]

You know what I mean? Yeah, I'm sorry. I did. I did. But what, but, but what's the issue here? What is like, what is your big thing about K Pop Demon Hunters? Yes, it's a huge hit. Like, it's their biggest thing ever. But it also follows the formula of streaming movies that become phenomenon. They are kids movies, they are animated, they have catchy music.

[C]

Well, that's just not streaming movies. Yeah, well, what were the phenomena in theaters from last year? Minecraft. Not so much.

[A]

Yeah, there's no music in Minecraft. Or Zootopia. I guess Jack Black had a little musical moment, but not. I mean, there's really nothing. It's not the same. But the point is, on streaming, you look at the numbers in Moana Encanto, you know, all of these musical animated hits are the ones that have the most resonance and now definitely does.

[C]

Their own Despicable Me franchise does.

[A]

Yeah. No music, but it's comedy. The biggest. The biggest takeaway from K Pop Demon Hunters to me is that this hasn't happened before for Netflix, is that it took this long and it took an outside studio.

[C]

Yeah, they had ambitions of being. They had. They once had ambitions of making six animated movies a year.

[A]

Yeah, they have a whole Skydance deal that has delivered them.

[C]

No, but this was even before. Like they were going to make them all in house. And I remember getting a tour and having the different animators talk to me about what was going to happen. And none of them really popped.

[A]

Leo. Leo's the only one with Adam Sandler. And that's because, like, it's Adam Sandler and they can put that on the tile. There were.

[C]

There were a couple of others that did all right. But yeah, not at the. Not at the level that you'd hope. Yeah.

[A]

So I guess the takeaway for me is good for Netflix not waiting for a repeat performance this year.

[C]

What do you think is the biggest show that's not on Netflix?

[A]

Oh, that's a good one. Well, Luminate says it's Love island and that was going to be one of my numbers is the 18.4 billion minutes for Love island on Peacock, which Luminate claimed was the biggest show of the year. I beg to differ on that one. I think probably Landman. Right.

[C]

Nielsen says it's like a tie between Landman and Reacher.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

And I had. I was very.

[A]

Reacher on Prime, Video, Landman, Reacher on Prime, Landman, Paramount.

[C]

Plus I was very suspicious of that Love Island Luminate number.

[A]

Yeah. Just because the universe is so much smaller. 44 million subs on Peacock and there's, you know, double that on Netflix in.

[C]

The US the biggest reason would be because I think there are a lot of episodes in the season of Love Island. But you see those Stranger Things numbers and you're trying to tell me that Love island was bigger than Stranger Things and I just don't believe it. You want to say it's bigger than Landman or Reacher because of tonnage, fine, but certainly not on a per episode basis.

[A]

Yeah. Do you have an opinion between Landman and Reacher?

[C]

I think Landman's bigger in the US Reacher is bigger globally. Both because it's. It's more like Landman is such a US Specific show and Amazon is so much bigger outside the US that'd be my answer.

[A]

Yeah. Paramount claims that the Taylor Sheridan stuff does travel, but I'm sure it does.

[C]

Fine in certain territories. But if you're trying to tell me that like, you know, a bunch of people in India, Japan, Korea, wherever are watching Landman now, we're going to get emails from those people saying, actually, um, Reacher is like the type of. Type of movie show, whatever, that has always traveled. Well, it's true. Right. Kind of. Honestly, not that different from. From the rip. It's like. Like it's an action movie that's fun and easy to watch and you can kind of turn your brain off a little bit and.

[A]

Yeah. Okay. So the biggest if. If you were going to get one show for the year and Stranger Things was off the table and you are starting your own Netflix or competitor.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Which show do you take? Honestly? I might take Love Island.

[C]

I was going to say because it's. Because it's there. Because of how many episodes you can.

[A]

And it's replicable. Yeah. Like Landman will go four or five seasons and then it'll be done. Love island going to be with us for decades.

[C]

Right. We would both take Taylor Sheridan over the creator of Love Island. I mean the other one that is up there with Love island is Love is Blind. All those dating shows.

[A]

Oh yeah, I know. Love is Blind is a good one. I might take that because you know.

[C]

Because that one and they don't cost as much.

[A]

Right. Well, they all have local spin offs too.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Love island with us. Love island, like, you know, Timbuktu, wherever to go.

[C]

Wherever they go. I know you were a big 98 degrees fancy. You need to get your Nick Lachey.

[A]

I do enjoy it.

[C]

98 degrees. Thank you.

[A]

So give me your last number here.

[C]

Are you surprised that Netflix's share of original hits is going down?

[A]

No.

[C]

Are you surprised that Bluey is the most watched show on television?

[A]

No.

[C]

Are you surprised that Grey's Anatomy is the most watched non kid show on television?

[A]

No. Because it's on multiple platforms including Netflix. Like Disney puts out numbers saying Grey's is the huge show for Hulu and great it is. But it's also boosted by Netflix. I mean this happens all the time. I asked Luminate the other day why this 10 year old miniseries based on a Stephen king book called 112263 about.

[C]

The JFK assessment, which was originally a Hulu show. Right.

[A]

And it's still on Hulu and it popped up on Luminate as one of the top 10 shows last week on Hulu. And I asked them, I'm like, what the hell? Why is this popping? And they're like, oh, well, it was recently added to Netflix as well. I'm like, oh, that would have been a good thing to know because that's why it's charting.

[C]

Yeah, I did. I had a fun chart in my newsletter that showed. I. It was like Parks and Rec and the Office and what happened when they were on Netflix versus Off and if they're on Netflix, they were in the top 10 acquired shows on Nielsen every single week. And it's. If they were off Netflix, they were never there.

[A]

Yeah. I mean it's amazing. The interesting thing is let's say Peacock like goes out of business or whatever and the Office goes back to Netflix. Do you think the Office would be as big on Netflix today as it was five years ago? Five years ago. I'm not sure because I think the phenomenon on Netflix that seems to be happening is that they put these shows on. Everyone thinks they're new to them on Netflix. They watch the crap out of them and then they're done. And Netflix is very smart about the windowing where they get all these shows. Yeah, they did it with Animal Kingdom recently. They did it with, your honor, the Bryan Cranston show. These are. These were moderate hits on other services. They go to Netflix, they become huge, and then it's like everyone's this ravenous tiger that eats it up and then they spit it out and they're done with it.

[C]

I think it depends on the show. I think there are some that come and go, but ncis, Grey's Anatomy, the animated shows like Bob's Burgers, Family guy.

[A]

Yes. Seth MacFarlane. Nielsen streaming star of the year. Did you see that? They gave him an award.

[C]

Those shows never leave the top 10. So I feel like the Office would probably still do. All right, can you name the most? Because you were. You shot all over K Pop, Even hundreds. Can you name the most watched non kids movie from last year on streaming?

[A]

Happy Gilmore 2.

[C]

It is that. It was it. Can you name the second most watched? Because this one I don't think you'll get unless you memorize the top 10.

[A]

I know it's Netflix.

[C]

I don't know. It's not Netflix. Back in action. The Cameron Diaz Jamie Foxx movie is number three. The number two movie was Wicked.

[A]

Oh, that's a good one. And that's on Amazon, right?

[C]

Peacock and Amazon.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

Those movies will. Those Universal movies will be on Netflix soon. But that was under the old Amazon deal.

[A]

And guess what? That one has music that people like.

[C]

I'm going to guess that Wicked 2 will not be as popular in streaming as Wicked 1.

[A]

Maybe not. It was a weird thing this year because Wicked 2 was coming out in theaters and NBCUniversal was not able to promote the Peacock release of the original because it was on Amazon.

[C]

Yeah, well, but they'll take the checks.

[A]

Yeah, they will.

[C]

That's true.

[A]

So. So where do we land on this? Does any of this change our streaming hierarchy, our rankings? Like Netflix still running away with everything. Like Amazon doing its thing. Like where. What does the latest data do to change our perception of the streamers?

[C]

Well, it feels like there's a lot of parody after Netflix when it comes to Hits, which is kind of surprising when we think of the tiers. It feels like, okay, Netflix is kind of in a tier of its own, and then it's Amazon and the larger Disney package. And then you've got Peacock, Paramount and hbo Max next. And then we're going to ignore the tubies and Roku's and YouTubes because they're just. It's kind of slightly different. But Paramount plus and Peacock have as many. And HBO gets treated differently because it. Some of its shows don't count as streaming originals. But, like, they have as many hits as Amazon and Disney. Right. Like Disney's strength lies elsewhere. Same with Amazon. Not as much in the, like, big hit new shows. So I guess that would be that. And the fact that none of the biggest new shows of last year were new were the things that stood out.

[A]

Yeah, that's an interesting stat that you highlighted that there was no new hit last year in the top 10.

[C]

Yeah, nothing. And every year before that, there'd been anywhere from like one to five of the top ten shows were all new ones.

[A]

Is that just a sign of maturity in streaming or is it a creative issue?

[C]

Both. I mean, historically in television, you wouldn't have like, new hits on all the time, right?

[A]

No, but they're pretty steady. I don't know. It's. I think it's concerning.

[C]

Yeah. Well, I guess people would blame, like, what strikes and cutbacks and all of that, but yeah, I think it's. And people falling back into, like, what's comfortable. You had a lot of big new shows or a lot of big returning shows last year. Stranger Things, Squid Game, Wednesday, Reach Man. Yeah. And maybe it also is Stranger Things is a little bit of the exception to this, but I think some of these streaming services are now want to be really sure that they get new seasons of their biggest shows, like, just about every year. Right. Like Paramount plus wants new Landmine every year. Amazon wants new Reacher every year. And if you can make sure that that happens, then those shows stay in the top 10. Whereas Stranger Things pops up every three years. And so in a year where there's no Stranger Things, it's easier for new stuff. Well, it's like the Pit.

[A]

That's why the Pit and their model, where they get to debut it every year in January, like, that's a great model because you got, you know that your hit show is coming back.

[C]

Yeah, I'm behind on the Pit, but it's good.

[A]

I'm behind too, but it's good. All right, Lucas, thanks for coming on.

[C]

Thanks Matt.

[A]

We'Re back with the call sheet, Craig. Our first call sheet on video. I know your background looks a lot nicer than mine. I gotta really step mine up.

[D]

Well, mine is built for Netflix now, and it's still not great.

[C]

I still have work to do, but.

[A]

I look like I'm slumming it in my upstairs office.

[D]

We need to get some nice posters. If people want to send posters to Matt for him to hang up.

[A]

No, please don't. I do not want to plug your movie in the background of my shot. Yeah, we missed you at the Grammys last night. You were having a nice weekend away. And the Grammys always deliver, man. It's the best award show.

[D]

What was the conversation around Cher in the moment? What was that?

[A]

Oh, it was amazing. I happened to be sitting next to the world's biggest Kendrick fan, who was filming the presentation of Record of the Year, and when Cher, first of all went on that, like, meandering journey around the stage and then came back and dropped a few F bombs and then announced that the Grammy was going to Luther Vandross, he's like, oh, no, she didn't. Oh, no, she didn't.

[D]

In Cher's defense. Look, I don't know if Cher knew that the song Luther was about Luther Vandross. However, when she opened the card and saw the name Luther, because that's the record that won, she probably blanked and said. Just said Luther Vandross.

[A]

She had some kind of stroke and, like, was flashing back to 30 years ago when she was at a party with Luther Vandross. No, I would like to think that she knew the song was about Luther Vandross, and then it just popped in her head. Oh, the Luther Vandross. Song. Who knows? But it was a very funny moment. I'm glad she went viral. I'm glad Luther Vandross is getting his moment 20 years after he died. All right, but we're not talking about that. We're talking about Disney earnings today. This morning, they released their quarterly earnings for the first quarter of the fiscal year. A mixed bag. But the amazing thing is that the experiences were unit of Disney. That is the theme parks and cruises division. They just cannot stop printing money in this division. It reported the company reported more than $10 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time. And if you want to know why, the parks guy, Josh, tomorrow is probably going to get the CEO job later this week. This is the reason. I mean, the parks are just going crazy right now. Price hikes have not hurt the company. They have been able to withstand the economic uncertainty, the tariffs, the opening of a Universal park in Orlando, all of this stuff that was supposed to dent the revenue at the parks and cruises division has not. So my prediction today is that they're going to raise prices more.

[D]

So they haven't reached their tipping point where people will stop going.

[A]

No, we have not seen that yet. And I thought it might have come this past year because the price hikes have been so aggressive at the parks. But when, if tomorrow, Josh tomorrow takes over the company, what's he going to do? He's going to continue the strategy that has been working for them, and he's going to keep raising prices.

[D]

Is this a sign that Disney. Is Disney more reliant now on the revenue from the parks than ever before?

[A]

Oh, absolutely. They're bringing in 60, 70, 70% of the company's profits from this division. It used to be that cable television was the leading revenue driver at Disney. Now that has completely changed. It's the parks division. And that reflects a lot of what's going on. Because obviously streaming is not as good a business as television was. And having ESPN was considered the crown jewel of the television era. Now it's like a question of whether ESPN should even be part of of the Disney empire because sports rights are so expensive and the streaming business is so uncertain. Like maybe that Josh will decide to spin off the entire unit. We don't know that. Now. They're not saying that. Iger, Bob Iger on the call was talking about all their franchises and how great ESPN is. And in this NFL deal they just did, where they NFL now owns 10% of ESPN. ESPN is valued at $30 billion, they said, which is not bad. But I mean, every other media company would love to own that. But the future of ESPN is pretty difficult considering the sports rights question. They're just going to get more and more expensive and all that value is going to go to the big leagues, like the NFL. But the parks division, Disney owns that. And there is no, you know, they have competitors, but there's nobody like Disney in the parks and theme park in cruises division. So I think they're going to continue to raise prices there.

[D]

Maybe it's time they bring back ESPN Zone, where I had my ninth birthday.

[A]

I know you tweeted once a photo of your 9th birthday at the ESPN Zone in the Bay Area.

[D]

Yeah. Oh, I think it was in New York, actually. But yeah, I had. I had a pizookie or whatever those were called.

[C]

That was great.

[A]

No, pizookies are from BJ's Pizza. I know, but I worked at a BJ's Pizza. It's probably the same thing. It's probably the knockoff. They were very proud that they invented the pizookie.

[D]

I think ESPN Zone came before BJ's, but.

[A]

Yeah, I disagree. No, BJ's was around in the 80s because I. Oh, was it? Yeah, I worked there in the 90s. All right, we are off topic. Disney raising theme park prices. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez and Jon Jones. And I want to thank you. We will see you later this week.