Podcast Summary:

The Town with Matthew Belloni
Episode: Netflix's Growth, Peacock's Struggles, and the New Streaming Hierarchy
Date: February 3, 2026
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)
Host: Matthew Belloni

Main Theme

This episode breaks down the fast-changing landscape of streaming, concentrating on the recent numbers and trends that highlight the strengths and weaknesses of major platforms—especially Netflix and Peacock. Through a game of “most meaningful numbers,” Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw use fresh data to debate the streaming pecking order, the phenomenon of “legacy hits,” platform profitability, and the ongoing influence of the biggest shows and movies on subscriber strategies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Peacock’s Mounting Losses

• Highlighted Number: $552 million — Peacock’s recent quarterly loss, up from $372 million the prior year ([04:13])

  • Despite revenue increases and growth to 44 million subscribers, profitability remains elusive.
  • Lucas: “They had two quarters in a row of not growing... They had to spend a lot of money to get there.” ([05:32])
  • Big investments in NBA rights have increased costs, but regular season games may not deliver the needed impact.
  • Lucas: “The NBA is a very popular sport, but its most popular moment is the playoffs… The regular season games are tough.” ([06:25])

• Churn Concerns:

  • Peacock's subscriber churn hit 8-9% recently, well above the industry average of 5-6%. (Netflix is at 1-2%) ([08:49])
  • Lucas: “If you have a significant portion of your customer base canceling every month or two and then you gotta spend money to regain them… it's a very vicious cycle.” ([08:49])
  • Efforts to keep sports fans engaged year-round (beyond NFL season) by adding NBA and MLB.

• Strategic Questions:

  • Will Comcast/NBCU merge, acquire, or wait for market shake-ups (e.g., Paramount potentially dropping out, antitrust blocking Netflix)? ([10:02])

2. Netflix’s Unmatched Dominance – ‘Stranger Things’ Effect

• Highlighted Numbers:

  • 8.7 billion: Minutes viewed of ‘Stranger Things’ in one week ([12:14])
  • 56.6 million: Season 1 Netflix views (second half of last year)
  • All four top streaming shows per Nielsen were ‘Stranger Things’ seasons ([13:48])

• Legacy IP Drives Rewatches:

  • Older seasons of ‘Stranger Things’ still outperform new hits.
  • Anticipation for the series finale boosted numbers, and Netflix times drops to maximize retention and minimize churn.
  • Matt: “The comps next year are going to be bad… they're probably already strategizing what they can put into December of next year so the comps aren't horrible.” ([13:48])
  • Lucas: “Both [‘Stranger Things’ and ‘Squid Game’] ended in 2025 and the third, ‘Wednesday,’ got that third season out of Jenna Ortega, but we know that that show's not going to live forever.” ([14:49])

• Future of Netflix’s Big IP:

  • Discussion about Netflix’s ability to spin off or sustain ‘Stranger Things’ universe.
  • Acknowledgment that expanding the universe (like HBO with Thrones) is difficult, due to aging cast and smaller setting ([16:30])

3. Netflix’s Blockbuster Movie Moment: ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’

• Highlighted Number:
  • 20.5 billion: Minutes viewed for ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’—over twice any other streaming movie ([19:03])
  • Signals potential for Netflix movies to generate cultural buzz, but is still rare.
  • Matt: “This is proof that a Netflix movie can be a cultural phenomenon. Do they have anything else that qualifies? No… Will it put up huge numbers? Yes… That’s just the way we are.” ([19:32])
  • The formula for streaming movie hits skews towards animated/kid-friendly titles with catchy music—mirroring the theatrical space.

4. The “Non-Netflix” Hits & Streaming Platform Hierarchy

• Love Island’s Staggering Numbers:

  • 18.4 billion: Minutes viewed claimed by Luminate for Peacock’s ‘Love Island’ ([22:53])
  • Matt and Lucas express skepticism about its claimed lead over ‘Stranger Things’: “Trying to tell me Love Island was bigger than Stranger Things and I just don’t believe it.” ([23:35])

• Landman vs. Reacher:

  • ‘Reacher’ (Prime Video) vs. ‘Landman’ (Paramount): Lucas believes ‘Landman’ leads in the US, while ‘Reacher’ is bigger globally, thanks to Amazon’s size outside the US ([23:59])

• If Starting a Streaming Platform…

  • Both would choose an endlessly replicable show like ‘Love Island’ or ‘Love is Blind’ over a big-budget scripted hit, due to cost and longevity ([24:58])

5. The Power of Licensed Legacy Shows

• Netflix’s share of original “hits” declines, while legacy titles like Bluey and Grey’s Anatomy dominate viewership ([26:01])

  • Adding old series to Netflix spikes viewership, regardless of original platform.
  • Matt: “Netflix is very smart about the windowing where they get all these shows… They become huge. And then it's like everyone's this ravenous tiger that eats it up and then… they're done with it.” ([27:10])

• Animated sitcoms (‘Bob’s Burgers’, ‘Family Guy’) are evergreen, always ranking in the top 10 on Nielsen ([28:12])

6. Hierarchy Among Streamers in 2026

• Dominance of Netflix: Still in a league of its own.
• Second Tier: Amazon, Disney bundle (Disney+/Hulu/ESPN)
• Third Tier: Peacock, Paramount+, HBO Max.
  • Despite being treated as inferior, these also rack up hits, particularly in unscripted and acquired content ([29:48])
  • No new shows broke into the top 10 in 2025 — a marked change from earlier years ([30:48])
  • Question: Is this maturity, creative malaise, or a function of platforms doubling down on surefire hits each year?

7. Disney’s Changing Revenue Sources

• Theme Parks Now Disney’s Profit Engine:

  • Theme parks and cruises generated over $10 billion in revenue this quarter.
  • Account for 60-70% of company profits; cable and TV revenue have been eclipsed.
  • Streaming profits, meanwhile, are disappointing.
  • Matt: “The parks are just going crazy right now. Price hikes have not hurt the company… They have been able to withstand the economic uncertainty, the tariffs, the opening of a Universal park in Orlando… has not [dented] the revenue at the parks and cruises division” ([34:19])
  • Host predicts Disney will continue price hikes, noting no “tipping point” yet for customer resistance ([35:10])

• ESPN’s Value and Uncertain Future:

  • ESPN is now valued at $30 billion (per new NFL deal), but rising sports rights threaten profitability ([35:33])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Peacock’s Losses:
  “That is up from a $372 million loss in the quarter a year ago… How long can this go on?” — Matt ([04:28])

• On Subscriber Churn:
  “If you have a significant portion of your customer base canceling every month or two… it's a very vicious cycle.” — Lucas ([08:49])

• On Stranger Things Rewatches:
  “All smaller than people rewatching Stranger Things or discovering it for the first time because they're excited for the finale... so much bigger than basically every other everything else on television.” — Lucas ([12:05])

• On Netflix Movie Moments:
  “This is proof that a Netflix movie can be a cultural phenomenon. Do they have anything else that qualifies? No.” — Matt ([19:32])

• On Licensed Show Windowing:
  “Netflix is very smart about the windowing where they get all these shows. They become huge, and then it's like everyone's this ravenous tiger that eats it up and then they spit it out and they're done with it.” — Matt ([27:10])

• On Streaming Platform Hierarchy:
  “Netflix is kind of in a tier of its own, and then it's Amazon and the larger Disney package, and then you've got Peacock, Paramount and HBO Max next.” — Lucas ([29:48])

• On Disney’s Pivot:
  “It used to be that cable television was the leading revenue driver at Disney. Now that has completely changed. It's the parks division.” — Matt ([35:33])

Important Segments + Timestamps

• [04:13] — Peacock’s $552M loss, NBA spending, and platform viability
• [08:49] — Peacock’s high subscriber churn and sports programming strategy
• [12:14] — ‘Stranger Things’: record-breaking weeks & importance to Netflix
• [19:03] — 'K-Pop Demon Hunters' smashes streaming movie records
• [22:53] — Love Island’s “biggest” status, Reacher vs. Landman debate
• [26:01] — Licensed show dominance (Bluey, Grey’s Anatomy, etc.)
• [29:48] — Streaming pecking order & lack of new breakout hits
• [34:19] — Disney’s parks & cruises record revenue, strategy shift

Tone and Style Note

The conversation remains analytical but openly skeptical, quick-witted, and laced with friendly sarcasm. Both speakers challenge the industry’s hype cycles, questioning data credibility (e.g., Love Island’s reported dominance), and offering unvarnished industry commentary.

Summary Takeaway

The new streaming hierarchy remains clear: Netflix holds a unique, unassailable lead, powered by enduring, broadly appealing franchises and strategic windowing. Meanwhile, Peacock’s troubled profitability and high churn threaten its future despite recent growth, and all platforms increasingly rely on legacy “comfort” shows and global unscripted formats for steady viewing. Disney, meanwhile, finds its real financial engine in the tangible magic of parks and cruises—not streaming. The golden age of new streaming hits may be cooling, replaced by a mature, more cautious, and comfort-seeking viewer base.