The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: Oscar Noms ‘26! Five Big Takeaways and Industry Narratives
Date: January 22, 2026
Guests: Kyle Buchanan (NYT Awards Columnist), Craig (Producer)
Host: Matthew Belloni

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the 2026 Oscar nominations, breaking down industry dynamics, snubs, surprises, and the meaning behind this year’s notoriously competitive categories. Matt is joined by Kyle Buchanan of The New York Times to analyze the major takeaways, the fates of Hollywood’s biggest studios, the ever-shifting Academy demographics, and the narratives emerging from this year’s nominations.

Main Themes and Purpose

• Decoding five big industry narratives from the Oscar nominations
• The blockbuster studio showdown: “Sinners” vs. “One Battle After Another”
• How changing Academy demographics and industry upheavals shaped the nominations
• Notable snubs, firsts, and behind-the-scenes campaigning
• Broader implications for the future of Oscars and Hollywood

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Studio Showdown: Warner Bros.’ Oscar Flex

[05:05]

• “Sinners” scores 16 nominations, breaking the all-time record previously held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic,” and “La La Land.”
• “One Battle After Another” earns 13 nominations—both are Warner Bros. films.
• Matt: “What a flex by Warner Brothers. These are two movies… that almost got the studio heads fired… now they combine for 29 Oscar nominations and one of them is going to win Best Picture. It’s… pretty insane.” [05:13]
• The unique challenge: How does Warner Bros. campaign for two frontrunners at once?
• A sign of industry consolidation—fewer studios may mean more double-headed nomination slates in future years.

2. Corporate Chaos Amid Historic Oscar Morning

[07:52]

• Warner Bros. is in the process of being sold—potentially to Netflix or Paramount.
• Matt: “That corporate conversation is not the one you want to be having on the morning of the Oscar nominations. And here we are.”
• Discussion on whether Academy voters subconsciously supported legacy studio filmmaking over streaming insurgents.

3. Box Office & Oscars: Hits Still Matter

[09:31]

• Oscar nominations reflect a return to studio movies with mass reach.
• “Sinners” as both a box office and awards juggernaut; “One Battle” less profitable but widely seen.
• Matt: “If you make the right kind of movie, the box office can help it get into best picture. That’s always been true at the Oscars.”
  Kyle: “People were going back to see it once, twice, three times. If you hadn’t seen it in VistaVision, you were a fake fan, you know.” [10:53]
• Contrast with previous years’ focus on smaller, indie releases.

4. The Young Actor Narrative: Will the Oscars Welcome the Next Generation?

[11:08]

• Timothée Chalamet is likely frontrunner for Best Actor, but the Academy has historically been hesitant to reward young leading men.
• Kyle: “The only man under 30 who has ever won best actor is Adrien Brody… If he wins, Timmy… will still be one of the youngest… after the long history of the Oscars.” [11:54]
• The Academy’s bias: quick to recognize young women, reluctant for young men.
• Notable snub: Paul Mescal for “Hamnet,” possibly due to category confusion (lead/supporting).

5. The “Dad Movie” Slot & Genre Representation

[16:03]

• F1 enters Best Picture—“the dad contingent” of the Academy strikes again.
• Debate over whether big studio crowd-pleasers deserve a slot vs. more daring genre films.
• Kyle: “There should be a place for movies like that. It’s called the Producers Guild Awards.” [16:50]

6. The Internationalization of the Oscars and Cannes Influence

[21:13]

• Cannes Film Festival continues as a major Oscar pipeline, though not all Palme d’Or winners make the cut (“Just an Accident” snubbed).
• Kyle: “A lot of the other international films… people were catching up with ‘Secret Agent’… not… Jafar Panahi’s film.” [21:47]
• Sentimental voting for filmmakers facing adversity (e.g., Panahi), but voter homework fatigue can dampen impact.

7. Changing Demographics and Viewing Behaviors in the Academy

[16:03]

• The Academy is more international and diverse, but “dad movies” still slip through.
• Some categories (e.g., Best Actress at Focus Features, zero noms for Searchlight or Paramount this year) show shifting influence among mini-majors and specialty divisions.

8. Consolidation of Nominations

[29:30]

• Fewer films garnering larger shares of nominations—a trend reminiscent of the Emmys.
• Real world distractions (strikes, fires) and fewer releases lead to coalescing around blockbuster contenders.
• Kyle: “The movies that really succeed, that really thrive, are the ones that are gonna over index.” [30:03]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Kyle on Sinners' Record:
  “To not just break the record, not just tie the all time record, not just break the all time record, but blow past… that’s a pretty incredible feat.” [04:10]

• Matt on Warner Bros. Situation:
  “These are the movies… that almost got the studio heads fired… and now they combine for 29 Oscar nominations and one of them is going to win best Picture.” [05:13]

• Kyle on Young Male Oscar Winners:
  “If you are a good looking young guy, I think that a lot of the older male Oscar voters just aren’t inclined to support you… They’re like, already?” [12:24]

• Matt on F1 as a Best Picture Nominee:
  “There should be a place for these well done, crowd pleasing, blockbuster style movies. But there was some online vitriol today…” [16:46]

• Kyle on Genre and Dad Movies:
  “Are we going to go back and give an Oscar to ‘Gone in 60 Seconds?’” [16:57]

• Kyle’s Surprising Snub:
  “Guillermo del Toro didn’t get a directing nomination… Del Toro, even in seasons that he doesn’t factor into, is still there because he is a presence at these parties and at these Q and A’s…” [26:01]

Important Timestamps

• Intro & Setting Up the Stakes: 00:00–04:10
• The Warner Bros. Double Nomination Dilemma: 05:05
• The Corporate Drama at Warner Bros.: 07:52
• Box Office and Best Picture Correlation: 09:31
• Young Actor Narrative & Timothée Chalamet: 11:08
• “Dad Movie” Category, F1 Debate: 16:03–18:29
• International Films, Cannes Pipeline: 21:13
• The Case of “Just an Accident” and Snubs: 21:25–23:25
• Consolidation of Nominations Trend: 29:30
• Guillermo del Toro Snubbed: 25:55
• Netflix’s Oscar Strategy & J. Kelly’s Failure: 27:18–28:24
• Discussion of Upcoming Releases / Call Sheet: 34:12

Quick Bullets—Additional Highlights

• Kate Hudson (Songs Sung Blue): An awards “dad favorite,” predicted by Matt due to her industry popularity and the “Bohemian Rhapsody contingent.” [17:59]
• Focus Features Milestone: Three Best Actress nominations for the first time since 2002; Searchlight gets snubbed.
• SAG-AFTRA vs. Oscars: A disconnect on international nominees; SAG viewing committees randomly chosen, with varying international film enthusiasm.
• Sinners’ April Release: Its record-setting run is even more impressive for not being a traditional “awards season” release. [33:32]
• Amazon’s ‘Mercy’ Predicted Flop: Chris Pratt’s lack of star power for original IP and salary speculation highlight industry anxieties around theatrical hits. [34:54]

Closing Thoughts

• The Oscar race is unusually competitive and reflective of major industry shifts: legacy studios’ last stand, streaming insurgencies, and the resulting campaign headaches as old and new Hollywood collide.
• As Kyle notes, “Between that and everything everywhere… can we please mix up this awards calendar a little bit more?” (on off-season Oscar release dates) [33:56]
• There remains an undercurrent of insecurity and transition—regarding what kinds of movies get made, how they are seen, and what the future of the Oscars (and Hollywood power) looks like.

For Further Reference

• Follow The Town on Instagram: Behind-the-scenes, event coverage, and more during Sundance and awards season.
• Next Week’s Preview: Matt will be reporting from Sundance, promising fresh insight from the heart of indie Hollywood’s comeback.