← The Town with Matthew Belloni
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- [00:00]
A
This episode of the Town is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting Train Dreams. Nominated for four film independent spirit awards including best Picture and best director Clint Bentley, the Playlist lauds it as a career best performance from nominee Joel Edgerton. Winner of the Critics Choice Award for best cinematography. RogerEbert.com raves, it's a film that reached into my heart and soul. You don't just watch it, you breathe it in. And New York Magazine hails Train Dreams the best picture of the year for your awards consideration. This episode is brought to you by HBO Max Industry is back. The acclaimed HBO original series returns for another thrilling season when a splashy fintech startup bursts onto the London scene. Harper and Yasmin are drawn into opposing sides of a high stakes financial deal that could bring them both down in the market. Perception is everything. Who is selling the truth and who is dealing in lies? Kiernan Shipka, Max Minghella and Charlie Heaton joined Kit Harington and the cast for the wildest season yet. HBO's Industry is now streaming Sundays at 9pm on HBO Max. It is Thursday, January 22nd. It's the Oscar nominations. Not a lot of huge surprises this year. The prognosticators were mostly right. Sinners got the most nominations with 16. That breaks the record held by All About Eve and Titanic and La La Land. But one battle after another scored 13. Noms itself. It's probably still the favorite for best picture. Huge for Warner Brothers. A total of 30 between those two movies and nom for weapons, most of any studio or streamer. Remember, these are the movies that the Warner's film studio chiefs almost got fired over. The company's on the verge of being devoured by Netflix, which got 16 nominations, including Frankenstein and Train Dreams for best picture. F1 got a best picture nomination too. Everyone online seems to be pissed about that. Not sure why Wicked 2 was totally snubbed. Kate Hudson got a nomination for Song Sung Blue. Big win for her. As always, the Oscar noms give us a window of sorts into the state of Hollywood, especially considering the leading studio is in the process of being sold to either Netflix or Paramount. Maybe. So lots to discuss and we've got Kyle Buchanan back here to talk about it all. Kyle's been on the show before. He writes the awards season column for the New York Times. He takes great pictures of the sad food they serve at award shows. You should follow him for that. And he goes to even more awards events than I do. So today it's the Oscar nominations and the five biggest industry narratives from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. All right, we are here with Kyle Buchanan, who's a reporter at the New York Times and the awards seasoned columnist known as the projectionist. Welcome, Kyle. Welcome back.
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B
Thanks for having me.
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A
Matt, you are conflicted today. You're doing your Oscar nomination thing from Sundance. Where does the New York Times stay at Sundance?
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B
In a crowded condo full of journalists, which is why I am coming to you from the Park City Library.
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A
Okay, so you don't do the hotel, the awful hotels in Park City. You do condo. That's probably the best move.
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B
Yeah. Although we'll see next year when they go to Boulder.
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A
Yeah, I know. It's going to be a grab, a land grab for everyone to get the best airbnbs.
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B
Very much so.
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A
All right, so we're talking Oscar noms. You were up early. I slept in.
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B
I. Oh, rub it in, rub it in.
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A
I know, listen. I had PTSD from 15 years of waking up at 5. Sometimes I didn't even sleep because THR goes nuts. It's like our Christmas morning. And I am very happy to be able to sleep in and not do the rush in the morning. But I have reviewed all the nominations, I reviewed all the snubs lists, all of the quote unquote analysis from the experts. And we're going to discuss. So we're going to get into the big narratives. But first, is this an actual race now for best Picture? I mean, obviously people had thought that one battle after another was going to run away with this thing. It's been winning all the precursor awards. It's got the most noms for the actors awards. It's got the most noms for directors. Like, is it now a race now that Sinners broke the record for most noms?
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B
I do think if there were ever going to be any sort of competition, Sinners just showed it can compete today. I mean, to not just break the record, not just. Not just tie the all time record, not just break the all time record, but blow past the all time record to get 16 nominations, more than the 14 that had held, you know, since the All About Eve days. That's a pretty incredible feat.
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A
Although there is one more. There's one more category now.
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B
There's one more category. But even without it, they still would have gotten it. I think that really shows how strong that film is. And so the next few weeks are not going to be about. Well, this is a open and shut case for one battle. It's going to be about that second look that Sinners is about to get. I still think one battle tends to have, you know, the trajectory that you want in a best Picture winner. But I actually am sort of curious to see if Sinners can compete now.
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A
It's so crazy that they're both from the same studio. And that's my first narrative. I mean, we're going to do like five industry narratives from the noms, and my first one is just the studio narrative. I mean, what a flex by Warner Brothers. These are two movies, Sinners in one battle that almost got the studio heads fired, like Mike and Pam almost got fired for making these movies. And now they combine for 29 Oscar nominations and one of them is going to win best Picture. It's. It's pretty insane of a flex.
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B
Yeah, it's incredible. And that happens so rarely. I mean, the last time I can really think about a studio having maybe the two strongest movies in the Oscar season would be when Searchlight had Shape of water and 3 of billboards in 2017. But you can't argue that these are two much stronger movies with a much stronger nominations tally.
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A
That was not a two horse race. Like this is. I mean, I know Hamnet has fans and there's the Marty supreme crew, but this is really a two horse race, it seems like, for picture at least.
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B
Yeah, it is. And I feel like this is the sort of year that, you know, that the Oscars might have hoped that they got with Barbenheimer. You know, I mean, Oppenheimer ultimately was the strong movie there, but these are two really strong, you know, well made studio movies that got their due, you know, and I feel like it kind of repudiates that very tired argument that the Oscars are out of step with the mainstream moviegoer.
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A
Well, we'll get to that. We'll get to the box office. But on the studio front, I asked my guru, Michael Lasker, the manager, if he could think of when this happened last. And he went all the way back to 1974 with Godfather 2 and Chinatown, both being from Paramount. I think you could make the argument that 2007, no country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, both competing for picture, both are from Paramount, maybe Million Dollar Baby and aviator at the 2004 Oscars, but I don't think both of those were strong contenders. This is really a unique situation for Warners and it's going to present some issues for them in phase two of the campaign. I know they have some different consultants working on the individual films, but where do you put your money? Do you Put it both equally, do you say, well, one battle is the front runner, and it has been for months. So let's go all in there like, you got to appease both filmmakers. What do you do here?
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B
You're right. And I would note that even though this feels like a unique situation now, it might not be a unique situation in the future when we're cruising to a place where there are fewer studios. So, of course, they are going to be studios that have, you know, the front runners or gobble up the lion's share of nominations when there, you know, aren't as many to go around.
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A
Well, that's the other narrative here, is that this all comes amid Warner Brothers having been sold already to Netflix and now fighting for its life, you know, fighting for who's going to own it between Paramount and Netflix. Weirdly, Paramount put out its proxy today. And Warner Brothers, you know, amid all the Oscars hoopla, they had to put out a statement defending their Netflix deal, again saying, this is not a new offer from Paramount. We are sticking with the one that we already consummated. 93% of our shareholders agree like that corporate conversation is not the one you want to be having on the morning of the Oscar nominations. And here we are. Do you think that the voters, the Academy members that are watching sort of dumbfounded as one of the original legacy studios gets auctioned off, do you think that impacted their votes at all and said, you know what, we're going to go with these two big Warner Brothers movies as kind of a show of support for Warners this year.
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B
I don't know if it's a specific show of support for Warner Brothers more than it's a specific show of support for that kind of studio movie, which is even more endangered. You know, Warner Brothers aside, the idea of a big, big auteur making a critically acclaimed blockbuster, even though we've had some good examples of recent vintage, it's not in vogue. Right. Like, that's why Warner Brothers was under such scrutiny this past year. But the fact that those two movies are dominating the Oscar conversation, it really does remind me of the old days when really good, really successful studio films were what you would find in Best Picture. And I think that's what the Oscar voters are gravitating towards.
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A
Yeah, it's like what all of the people in the industry say they want. They don't want the Academy to keep honoring these tiny movies like Anora and the indie type movies. They want studios to be able to compete for Oscars. And here we go. Here's two front runners that are both studio movies. Let's be clear though. One Battle after Another is not a blockbuster. That movie lost money in theaters, grossed $200 million on a 131, $40 million budget. Sinners was about 90, $100 billion and on the budget. So these are. That is an incredibly profitable film. And that gets to that box office narrative. That's my second one, is that if you make the right kind of movie, the box office can help it get into best picture. That's always been true at the Oscars. I think everywhere. Everything everywhere all at once got the Oscar love that it got because in part, it was a huge hit for a 24 for their standards. And. And I think that that was a factor this year. The fact that Sinners connected so well propelled it into the box office conversation. Same with Oppenheimer, to be honest.
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B
Yeah. And I would push back on one thing, Matt. Like, was Sin was One battle after another profitable. That's a whole other story. But was it a blockbuster? Yeah, I think it was. It was shaped like it. It made a lot more money than almost everything in the Oscar conversation this year.
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A
People saw it. That's the big difference. It's not a Nora. People actually saw this one.
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B
Yes. Real people saw it. And certainly where we live in la, everybody saw it. I mean, people were going back to see it once, twice, three times. If you hadn't seen it in VistaVision, you were a fake fan, you know, So I think there is this narrative that that movie can boast.
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A
Yeah. Okay, so I've got another narrative is the young actor narrative. We got. Timothee Chalamet now is probably the frontrunner for best actor. I'm still team Leo. Love Leo. Never going to vote against Leo, but Timmy, legit contender. He already won the Globe. He's got the Sagnom, the actors award. Nom. These are the kinds of nominees the Academy says they want. They want to appeal to young men. They want young men to care about the Oscars. And as you've written in the Times, there's an abysmal track record of awarding young male actors at the Oscars. Why is that?
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B
It's really crazy. I mean, truly still, you know, after the long history of the Oscars, the only man under 30 who has ever won best actor is Adrien Brody for the Pianist. Timmy just turned 30. He'll still be one of the youngest ones to ever do it if he wins. And I feel like we'd all think that he is a sure shot to win if it weren't for the fact that they always penalized these guys. I mean, it. They obviously don't have that problem with ingenues. You know, women.
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A
Emma Stone, Jennifer Lawrence. They got Oscars coming off the fireplace.
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B
But if you are a good looking young guy, I think that a lot of the older male Oscar voters just aren't inclined to support you. They're like, already? Yeah.
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A
They resent you. They want to be.
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B
You've got a beautiful girlfriend, you've got success, you've got all these things. They're not gravitating towards you at the Oscar parties. They'd rather go meet Emma Stone or Jennifer Lawrence or. Or whoever. So I actually worried about this streak to the extent that when I was, you know, readying my snubs and surprises and just sort of like, accounting for what could happen, I was afraid they might not nominate Michael B. Jordan.
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A
Oh, God, no. That. That was an obvious one. You play twins, you get nominated.
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B
Yeah. But I was still worried, you know, like, he should be nominated also. Like, you know, I mean, to have Michael B. Jordan in the mix this year, to have Timothee Chalamet potentially winning, these are the things that I think Oscar voters need to do. Not just to keep pace with reality, but to send a message to those young men, probably the. The most checked out demographic when it comes to the Oscars, that, yeah, okay, we have a new class of movie stars. You know, if the Oscars are supporting them, they're late to the party. General audiences are already. But come on, like, start, like, getting with the program.
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A
What happened with Paul Mescal? I thought he was a shoo in for Hamnet.
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B
Yeah, I mean, I think Paul Mescal fell victim to the exact same thing that happened with Chase Infinity from one battle after another where they were both sort of borderline lead supporting cases. In the case of Chase, they went with lead actress because they thought that field was so thin that she could get in. She didn't. She was almost certainly drawing a lot of supporting votes, too. And I think that kind of, like, wrecked her case. Yeah.
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A
To be clear, you can say where you're campaigning someone, but voters can pick you in any category.
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B
Yeah, they can. When it comes to the Oscars, you know, Golden Globes and SAG voters, they'll do what you tell them, but not in the case of the Oscars. And we've had plenty of examples in the past, whether it's Kate Winslet getting a best actress nomination for the Reader or both the leads of Judas and the Black Messiah ending up in supporting where it's just wherever you draw the most votes is where you go. And I think with Paul, he was probably getting best actor votes and they just didn't have him around maybe enough because he's been working on the Beatles movie to press that case for supporting. But yeah, I think, I think that's the peril of being so borderline.
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A
They screen the crap out of that movie. Hamnet, though, there was a screening every night with some big filmmaker doing a Q and A. I feel bad for Chloe Zhao. She's like literally done like hundreds of Q&As at this point.
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B
Yeah. But don't feel too, too bad for her. She still got everything she wanted. She did.
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A
You know what, it works, a movie like that where you might turn it off on the portal. If you sit through Hamnet, you get to the end and you love it.
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B
Yeah. And that's, you know, that cathartic outpouring of grief that you feel in the theater is something that really, really works in a theater.
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A
All right, so would you put money on Timmy or would you put money on Leo or Michael B. Jordan?
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B
I'm putting money on Timmy. I think that with Leo, look, I mean, Leo is fantastic in the movie. I think that ever since he won the Oscar, they sort of perpetually underrate him. He's been great in other things, like he was great in the Tarantino and Brad Pitt got all the love. I think that they just said you're good and they're going to be wrestling with the Timmy situation. I think the only thing that would really present some sort of challenge to Timmy is if like a Wagner Moura or even Ethan Hawk kind of is able to mount some steam. Because those older voters who just don't want to vote for like the young romantic guy would have an alternative. They'd have a, you know, somebody that feels more their speed.
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A
Speaking of older voters, I want to talk about the dad contingent of the academy, which is still there. It used to be that the stat was what, like 80% of the academy was white men over 50 or something like that. Those days are gone. They have diversified that age down and made it more diverse and more international. Not completely, but they have changed the makeup of the academy. Still. Almost every year there's some dad movie head scratcher and this year it is F1 in best picture. I like it. I think that it's great. There should be a place for these well done, crowd pleasing, blockbuster style movies. But there was some online vitriol today over including from yourself, you said, come on.
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B
Yeah, there should be a place for movies like that. It's called the Producers Guild Awards.
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A
Oh, you know what, the Oscars are better.
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B
The Best Picture category. Are we going to go back and give an Oscar to gone in 60 seconds?
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A
No, but this was a much better, well done movie. Like gone in 60 seconds is genre. This was like a big blockbuster style movie. Brad Pitt's been nominated and won before Joe Kaczynski got nominated for Top Gun. Maverick, like this is not out of nowhere. Apple did a campaign for it.
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B
Yeah, I mean all those things. Yeah. Yes, they campaigned for it. But again, like, look at the material. If you wanted a big studio, hit another one. In that, in that Best Picture category, Weapons was right there. Yeah, that's baffling. I don't think F1 is going to stand the test of time. And yeah, yeah, Weapons is horror, but you know, so was the substance and that made it in. So to me I'd much rather see Weapons than that.
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A
Parasite is basically. There's a lot of parallels between Sinners and Parasite.
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B
Yeah, I don't, I don't think Oscar voters are as afraid of genre. I mean, given that there now seems to be a Jerry Bruckheimer slot in Best Picture.
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A
But like, I don't know if I'd call it a trick.
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B
Get real. Come on. I didn't know they loved Brad Pitt's abs that much.
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A
The other dad nominee is probably Kate Hudson. Right? Like she is someone that the over 50 crowd, you know, they grew up with her and the Goldie Hawn and Almost Famous and now she's in her 40s and she did good work in this movie that was not well received otherwise. I actually put money on Kate Hudson because the odds were pretty good that, that if she got nominated I would win. And I came in the money because I knew there's the dad contingent that would vote for her. It's the Bohemian Rhapsody contingent.
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B
Yeah, I mean it's a, it's a down the middle pitch, I have to say. Actually like a lot of non industry civilians want to talk to me about this movie. But just like you said, Matt, like Kate Hudson knows how to get the industry on her side. I remember going to a recent screening of this at Soho House and who sat behind me but Leonardo DiCaprio and Al Pacino. And you have not lived until you're watching Song Song Blue where a lot of like tragic twists happen and you hear Leonardo DiCaprio muttering Jesus Christ every time one of those things happens. When that happened I thought, yeah, I think Kate can get in.
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A
I assume that wasn't Jesus Christ. This movie is amazing.
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B
I think it was more like Jesus Christ. What these people have to go through.
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A
Yeah, we don't want to give anything away, but yeah, that to me, that was not a surprise. Focus shout out to Focus features. They got three best actress nominees. First time that's happened since 2002 in the Miramax days. They got Jesse Buckley for Hamnet, they got Kate Hudson for Songs on Blue, and they also got Emma Stone for Begonia. They sort of took that Searchlight spot for the specialty division nominees this year. Searchlight got Zoom. Zero nominations. Can't remember the last time that happened. This episode is brought to you by Universal Pictures presenting the film Wicked for Good. Directed by John M. Chu. Wicked for Good is the epic, electrifying and emotional conclusion to the untold story of the Witches of Oz. Deadline calls it a masterpiece. And the movie that we need now for your awards consideration in all categories, including best Director, John M. Chu, Best Actress, Cynthia Eribo, Best supporting Actress, Ariana Grande and best picture of the year. Wicked for Good now playing in theaters. This episode is brought to you by Disney. Marvel's got something new up their sleeve. A Hollywood superhero series. Wait for it. About making a Hollywood superhero film. This new Wonder man has some serious surprises in store. It's about Von Kovac, an award winning director coming out of retirement, promising to redefine the genre. While Simon Williams, an aspiring actor with secret superpowers, goes after his dream role as Wonder man with the help of his mentor, Trevor Slattery. Starring Emmy winner Yahya Abdul Mateen II and Oscar winner Ben Kingsley. Don't miss Marvel Television's Wonder Man. Streaming January 27th at 6pm PT only on Disney. The other narrative that I noticed was was the whole Cannes pipeline. We've been talking for years now about how the internationalization of the Academy has led to Cannes, the Cannes Film Festival, being the primary launch pad for nominations. And yes, Sentimental Value got in there. Secret Agent also premiered there and that got a best picture nom as well. But it was just an accident which actually won the Palme d' or at Cannes. That was snubbed for picture and director.
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B
Yeah. And the last three Palm winners all made it into picture and director.
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A
And Anora won.
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B
Yeah, you know, I, I, I did think maybe based on how weak that 10th slot appeared to be in best picture, that it was just an accident, could make it in. But the writing was also on the wall. I was talking to so many People who still have not watched it.
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A
Oh, really? It's great. I saw it at tiff. It's so funny.
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B
I think that a lot of the other international films, especially in the final weeks, a lot of people were catching up with Secret Agent. They were not catching up with Jafar Panahi's film. And also, you know, honestly, I thought last year, Neon, who had the Seat of Sacred Fig, another Iranian film that had a great personal narrative with its director, Mohamed Rousselov. I thought that could have made a really potent shot at picture and director, and that didn't end up getting it either. So I don't know if it's a resistance to watch these Iranian films that maybe viewers perceive as homework or they're just not flashy or enticing enough, or if maybe Neon's slate was just too strong and the other movies presented a better case.
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A
The Panahi film's a comedy, though. It's a very easy watch.
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B
Yeah, but I don't know that people.
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A
Know that that's true. I thought that he might get some votes because of the whole persecution thing in Iran, that people might vote for him because they want to express support for him and his whole battle with the Iranian government.
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B
I thought so, too. You know, I was. I was at a Neon party just like a couple weeks ago, and the only person who really made a beeline for Panahi was Hudson Williams from Heated Rivalry. You know, and sometimes you can tell, you know, who's getting the lion's share of attention. And I just think that it's a great movie, and it did get nominated for its screenplay and for international film, but. But, yeah, I think voters missed the mark on that one.
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A
That'll be interesting to see if they can get that international film win, because it typically goes to the movie that's also nominated for Best Picture. And it's not, and it will.
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B
It'll be either Sentimental Value or Secret Agent. It just really depends. I mean, sentimental Value would seem to have the upper hand. It did really, really well. You know, all those cast members getting nominated, including Elle Fanning, and it got Best Director nomination, too. But Secret Agent has recency on its side. A lot of time it pays to be the last film that people are watching, and I think that film is.
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A
Yeah, sag, man. The Actor awards kind of feel a little bit out of step now. So much international presence in the Oscar nominations, and the Actor Awards really didn't have any. They snubbed some Sentimental Value. And then Sentimental Value gets four acting nominations. They didn't nominate a lot of these international people. What's going on there?
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B
I mean, SAG AFTRA is full of influencers. You know, it's full of random American actors who probably aren't inclined to watch foreign films.
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A
Yeah, but they have nominating committees. They're supposed to kind of.
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B
They have nominating committees that are pretty much randomly chosen, you know, and I.
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A
Guess if you're available to vote, it means that you're not working. I shouldn't say that. They probably do get. Make sure that people who are working are voting as well, but I hear you.
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B
I know plenty of people who've voted in those nominating committees. And they watch everything. Do they watch everything all in one sitting or are they coming back and watching certain movies a lot of the time? International movies in small increments. That's the thing that I wonder about. I think Sagnom. Com people are really eager to have, you know, all those screeners, and they're maybe a little less eager to go to those movies and really dedicate the time, especially that an international film might need for somebody who's perhaps unused to consuming so many international contenders in one year.
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A
Yeah, soon we're. We're going to be watching all of the nominees in 90 second increments on our phones.
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B
Oh, God. In verticals.
- [25:26]
A
Vertical versions. Yeah. Just as the filmmaker intended. All right, so you go to every single event. I admire your constitutional fortitude to be able to stomach so many events. Whenever I go to an event, you are always there. Tell me something that may have surprised us when watching the nominations, but made perfect sense to you because you were at all these events other than Kate Hudson. That one I got because I saw her everywhere, too.
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B
Well, I'll tell you one that surprised me, and that's Guillermo del Toro didn't get a directing nomination.
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A
That surprised me, too. That guy is like Mr. Oscar Season. He's everywhere. Everyone loves him. If you want a quality moderator for your panel, he will always say yes, and he's always good.
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B
That's what I was going to say. Del Toro, even in seasons that he doesn't factor into, is still there because he is a presence at these parties and at these Q and A's. And I can't tell you how many times, not just with Frankenstein, but also with Shape of Water, when I talk to someone who liked the movie and then they love it after they hear Guillermo talk about it. So I definitely think him being out there and doing his thing for that movie helped it. The director's branch might have Resisted for the same reason it didn't get a visual effects nomination. Where sometimes that more is more aesthetic didn't actually, you know, come together in a. In a kind of perfect way. They had notes.
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A
Hmm, interesting. Yeah. Netflix, which had Frankenstein, they got 16 nominations, if you count the shorts. I guess if we count Warner brothers, they got 46 nominations, but we're not counting Warner Brothers just yet. Frankenstein and Train Dreams both Best picture. First of all, what happened with J. Kelly, that was the early season. Front Runner ends up getting zero nominations. Sad for Noah Baumbach.
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B
Yeah, definitely. The film that I think Netflix thought in the summer would be their major contender and on paper, ought to have been. You know, it's a Hollywood movie with big stars, made for a lot of money, with people who've been nominated and even won in the past. I just don't think people liked it as much as they needed to. You know, I wasn't talking to people who said, oh, my favorite movie is J. Kelly. Talked to people who were a little disappointed, given the, you know, the caliber of people involved, that they weren't feeling a little bit more for it.
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A
Is it maybe that Netflix went too hard at the beginning and set it up as a front runner so that people, when they saw it, were disappointed? It didn't feel like a discovery like Train Dreams did. I mean, at tiff, Train Dreams was a Sundance movie, so kudos to Sundance. But it played at tiff, and I went and saw it and I thought it was great, mostly because I felt like I was kind of discovering it. I was like, oh, this is not the big Netflix Oscar contender like Frankenstein or J. Kelly. This is like their other movie. And then I feel like people throughout the season also felt like they were discovering it, and then, boom, best picture nomination.
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B
I do wonder if it will make Netflix reconsider their reliance on the Venice Film Festival as a launch pad. You know, we've seen Netflix movies pretty eager to launch a Venice because they don't launch a can because of those restrictions. And whether it's this film or whether it's, you know, Inary to's Bardo, these films that launch with the highest of expectations from the White Noise. Also from Baumbach and White Noise. Yeah. And that is an early point in the fall season to be getting mixed to bad reviews. And I think Netflix will still pump money into these things when they see some sort of opening. And it's not as though J. Kelly didn't get some nominations along the way to Oscar morning, but it just never really clicked And I do think that if they'd launched it maybe more in November, it could have had a better shot.
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A
Sandler, man would've loved to see him get that nomination.
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B
I feel like it'll happen eventually. They still are just waiting for the right time. You know, he's worn them down. They understand now that he can be a prestige actor when he wants to be.
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C
Can I ask you guys a question?
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A
Yeah.
- [29:31]
C
Does it feel like lately the awards have been more condensed and more centered around a few movies? To me, it's starting to feel like the Emmys, where it's like, oh, it's the White Lotus and it's the Pit getting everything.
- [29:42]
A
Let's give it to Delroy Lindo because he's in Sinners.
- [29:45]
C
Yes. It's like whatever movie is the front runner to win Best Picture, everything below it gets nominated. And I understand that's because they often are the best movies, which means they have the best performances. But it does feel more centered around a small collection of movies throughout the nominations list. Do you feel that way or no?
- [30:03]
B
Yeah, Craig, I've perceived that too. I think that there might be a couple of things that contribute to it. I mean, that might just be everybody. Natural inclination, as you said. That's what happens at the Emmys. But I also think that kind of, you know, a lot of the real world events that have happened in this industry, whether it's the LA fires or the strikes, have split people's focus. People have real world things to worry about these days. And also just there are fewer movies out there because of that, you know, so. So the movies that really do succeed, that really do thrive, are the ones that are gonna over index.
- [30:39]
A
I also think that the Academy telling people to watch the movies before they vote does matter because people may have voted in the past for a movie that, you know, they like the director or they're friends with the actors and at least the admonition to watch these things. People only have time to watch a certain number of movies. I mean, I know Kirsten Dunn says that she watches everything, but she's in the minority. Most people do not. So I think it just coalesces. I know that happens with the Emmys, but even in the Oscar race, I just think people just don't see everything.
- [31:13]
B
And I will say if they just wanted to rubber stamp things that they were used to, Wicked would have gotten even a single nomination. And it didn't.
- [31:19]
A
Yeah, because most people saw Wicked.
- [31:21]
B
Oh, yeah. Absolutely. They just rejected it. And to be fair to Wicked, I do think that we're in an era where when you have these ongoing franchises, even if they're Good, Dune Part 2 I thought was even better than the first one, but the academy sort of greeted it with a been there, done that shrug. And I'm really curious to see how that will affect the campaign for the third film.
- [31:42]
A
Interesting. Do you think that Netflix suffers a little more in the already simmering anti Netflix sentiment around town because they are going after Warner Brothers so aggressively?
- [31:56]
B
Somewhat. I think that the people who maybe wouldn't have been inclined to vote for Netflix or streaming movies anyway have a new arrow in their quiver. Yeah, but you know, a lot of the long time streaming or Netflix holdouts end up working at Netflix at some point.
- [32:11]
A
I know. Well, in the the other side, there's no movie to vote for from Paramount so they don't have that problem. Zero noms for Paramount.
- [32:20]
B
Zero noms for Paramount.
- [32:22]
A
Oh, so, so sad. All right, well, this is going to be an interesting race, I hope. Now there's a good competition, friendly competition between Sinners and One Battle. It'll be interesting to see how they campaign because a lot of times they won't go negative, but they'll craft their phase two campaign to draw a distinct difference between their picture and another picture. And it'll be curious to see if Warner Brothers will do that against itself.
- [32:50]
C
This is like when Travis and Jason Kelce played in the super bowl against one another.
- [32:53]
A
Totally. We need a mama Kelsey here. We need David Zaslav to come down and say I love my children equally.
- [33:00]
C
Mike DeLuca will be wearing a Sinner's shirt and Pam will be wearing a One Battle shirt at every event.
- [33:04]
A
Exactly.
- [33:05]
B
Even if One Battle does ultimately win Best Picture, you can't take away the incredible feat of Sinners setting that record. I know that Ryan Coogler has, you know, sometimes had complicated or at least nuanced feelings about awards season generally. But what he wants is to see his department heads and his cast recognized. And he couldn't have hoped for more today.
- [33:25]
A
And he's returning the favor. Mike and Pam bet on his movie and gave him the copyright, so he's returning the favor by campaigning for them.
- [33:33]
C
Also, this movie, Sinners, is even more of an achievement than if you look at La La Land, All About Eve, Titanic, those are movies that came out in the fall. Those were awards movies. Sinners came out in April. That movie was not expected to do anything in the box office, let alone the Academy Awards. It's setting the records. Coming out in April is even more impressive.
- [33:51]
B
Yeah, yeah. Between that and everything everywhere. Like, can we please mix up this awards calendar a little bit more?
- [33:57]
A
You know what? The movie with the most nominations doesn't always win Best Picture. Last year, most nominations, Emilia Perez and then Anora sweeps. So you never know. All right, thank you, Kyle.
- [34:10]
B
Thank you.
- [34:13]
A
We are back with the call sheet. Craig, before we start, you didn't offer us your big snub or surprise from the nomination.
- [34:19]
C
Yes, I have one gripe, and it's that Odessa A Zion did not get nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Marty Supreme. I thought she was fantastic. Went toe to toe with Timmy and it was a breakout role, like a Margot Robbie in Wolf of Wall Street. I thought she was great.
- [34:32]
A
Interesting. Yeah. You're a big Marty Supreme, Stan. Or is this just love for I love la?
- [34:38]
C
Well, you know what? I will say watching I love LA makes you appreciate Odessa's role even more because they're very different.
- [34:44]
A
And she has the Nepo thing going for her. She's Pamela Adlon's daughter. Like, sad for her. You know what? There'll be another chance.
- [34:53]
C
I guess so. But she deserved it anyway.
- [34:55]
A
Speaking of another chance, this weekend, possibly the first bomb of the year, we've got Mercy, starring Chris Pratt in a chair. The first big release for 2026 from Amazon, which has a pretty big year coming with a lot of big movies, this is not a very strong start. They have not revealed the budget for this movie. So far, it is well over 100 million.
- [35:21]
C
Wikipedia has the budget at 60 million.
- [35:23]
A
At 60?
- [35:24]
C
Yes.
- [35:24]
A
No, absolutely not. That is incorrect. It is much higher than that. I mean, come on. Chris Pratt doesn't get out of bed for less than 15. 20 million. Especially for a streamer movie. Like, I'm sure he's getting paid on this.
- [35:38]
C
Yeah. Variety reported 60 million.
- [35:40]
A
That is not. Not accurate in my opinion. Um, I don't have an actual number, though. But it is higher than that.
- [35:46]
C
So that's why it technically was not eligible to. For a bomb selection at our box office drafts. It's because we couldn't confirm it was over a hundred.
- [35:53]
A
I don't think it was a hundred over a hundred, but it's certainly higher. Now, Timur Betmembotov, who's the director, he is known for being able to do special effects in a more economical manner. He directed Wanted a long time ago. He's done other stuff, but remember, he's been talking about AI lately. But this movie. Come on. The tracking's at 12, 13. Some have it a little higher. I'm going to take the under. Let's put the line at 13. I'm going to take the under.
- [36:21]
C
Yeah, I'm going to take the under as well. Chris Pratt, for how famous he is, has never really put out an original movie where he is the star that succeeded. I mean, he is Mr. He is Garfield, he is Mario, he is Star Lord, he is Jurassic park guy. But the originals he's done. I mean, he's done passengers from, like 10 years ago, Jennifer Lawrence, the Tomorrow War. He did Electric State on Netflix. He has yet to prove that he can open a movie. Timothy Chalamet can open a movie much more than Chris Pratt can.
- [36:48]
A
Interesting you say that, considering he's been attached to, like, five big franchises.
- [36:53]
C
Any Chris could have opened those movies. I mean, I. I like Chris Pratt, and I think his talents have been wasted, to be honest, because I think he's really comedically talented. He was obviously awesome on Parks and Rec. So I want Chris Pratt to do more grounded, fun Chris Pratt movies, not.
- [37:09]
A
Mario12 that he'll probably be doing. Well, he can do that stuff too.
- [37:12]
C
But, you know, I guess this is his attempt at that. But he's sitting in a chair the whole time.
- [37:16]
A
He is sitting in a chair. Although a friend of mine at Amazon was very upset that I keep saying that he's like, he's not in the chair the whole movie.
- [37:22]
C
Well, the whole teaser is him basically in a chair. Although I think lately they've tried to show some shots of him running, because I remember at Cinemacon, the whole tease was him in a chair the entire time.
- [37:32]
A
I know they thought that was a gimmick. And then people were like, I don't want to see him sitting in a chair. And Rebecca Ferguson is like the omniscient AI voice. Like, yeah, not great. Not great. I want Amazon to do well this year because they are a big backer of putting movies in theaters. But this is not a great start. So I'm going to take the under on 13. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Kyle Buchanan, producer Craig Horlbeck, art director Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We will see you next week from Sundance.
- [37:57]
C
Follow us on Instagram. We'll be putting out a lot of fun Sundance photos.
- [38:01]
A
Oh, yes. At the Town with Matt Bellany. That's right. Follow us on Instagram now.
- [38:05]
C
Yeah, the link is in the episode description if you want to easily follow.