Paramount’s UFC Knockout and Amazon’s Podcast Flameout

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Paramount’s UFC Knockout and Amazon’s Podcast Flameout"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Town with Matthew Belloni
• Host/Author: The Ringer
• Episode: Paramount’s UFC Knockout and Amazon’s Podcast Flameout
• Release Date: August 11, 2025

Overview: In this episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni, host Matt Belloni delves into two significant developments in the digital media landscape: Paramount’s substantial seven-year, $7.7 billion deal with the UFC and the recent strategic shifts within Amazon’s podcast division. Belloni engages in insightful discussions with guests Lucas Shaw, his “Normal Monday Guy,” and Ashley Carman, a Bloomberg reporter specializing in podcasts and the music industry, to unpack these stories' implications for Hollywood and the broader media ecosystem.

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1. Paramount’s Monumental UFC Deal

Details of the Deal: At the heart of the episode is Paramount’s aggressive move to secure exclusive rights to UFC events. Belloni outlines that this seven-year, $7.7 billion agreement removes the pay-per-view model, instead integrating UFC events into the Paramount Plus streaming service. Additionally, select fights will be broadcast on CBS starting next year, marking a significant shift in how UFC content is monetized and distributed.

Implications for Paramount Plus: Belloni questions the financial feasibility of this deal, noting, “Where's Paramount gonna get the money to pay for this today?” (05:04). The discussion centers on how Paramount plans to sustain the costs associated with such a hefty investment. The guests explore three potential revenue streams:

1. Subscriber Growth: Attracting UFC fans who are not yet Paramount Plus subscribers.
2. Reduction in Churn: Retaining current subscribers by offering year-round UFC content, thereby decreasing cancellations.
3. Advertising Revenue: Leveraging both streaming and CBS broadcasts to generate significant ad revenue.

Lucas Shaw adds, “They’re betting on three possibilities” (06:09), emphasizing Paramount’s strategic approach to offset the deal's costs through increased subscriptions and ad revenue.

Financial Concerns: The conversation highlights concerns about Paramount’s ability to balance this investment with the existing content budget. Belloni raises, “Are they going to be able to add enough subscribers to offset the cost of this?” (05:04). The guests debate whether Paramount will need to cut costs in other areas or shift their content spending to accommodate the UFC deal.

Comparison to ESPN: Belloni contrasts Paramount’s approach with ESPN’s previous model, where UFC events contributed to subscriber growth through bundled services. Shaw speculates that Paramount can mimic this success by offering UFC as a continuous draw, unlike ESPN’s pay-per-view approach, which has seen declining numbers.

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2. The Shifting Podcast Industry Landscape

Boom and Contractions in Podcasting: The episode transitions to the broader state of the podcast industry, which Belloni describes as "kind of the best and worst times in the podcast business." Despite podcast consumption reaching all-time highs—with 55% of US listeners tuning in monthly and 40% weekly—major players like Amazon and Spotify are pulling back from podcast investments. Amazon recently restructured its podcast unit, Wondery, folding it into Audible and focusing on video-centric, celebrity-driven content (13:55).

End of the Serial Era: Ashley Carman introduces the idea that the "serial era" of podcasting, characterized by high-production, narrative-driven shows like Serial, is ending. She explains, “The narrative podcast boom that began in 2014 has fully shifted to video talk shows” (15:31). This marks a significant pivot from costly, limited-series productions to more sustainable, ongoing formats akin to traditional talk shows.

Rise of Video-Driven Podcasts: Belloni and his guests discuss the increasing dominance of video in the podcast space. YouTube now accounts for over 30% of the US podcast audience, and platforms like Spotify are integrating video features to stay competitive. However, this shift raises questions about the future of audio-only podcasts and their viability in a video-centric market.

Spotify’s Struggles: The conversation delves into Spotify’s challenges, noting the platform’s reluctance to fully embrace video for existing audio podcasters. Shaw observes, “Spotify is cutting back there too,” referring to their strategic retrenchment from some podcast ventures (07:10). This hesitancy undermines Spotify’s position in the evolving podcast landscape, where video integration may be essential for sustained growth.

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3. Cultural Implications and Media Shifts

Political and Cultural Dimensions: The guests explore potential cultural shifts accompanying these media changes. Belloni muses whether Paramount’s UFC deal and the restructuring at Amazon reflect a broader strategy to appeal to specific demographics, such as the MAGA audience. Shaw counters, suggesting that such moves may not be part of a concerted political strategy but rather business-driven decisions (10:37).

Impact on Late-Night Shows: Ashley's insights highlight the decline of traditional late-night shows, exemplified by the cancellation of Stephen Colbert’s program. The shift towards podcasting and video talk shows signifies a transformation in how audiences consume late-night content, moving away from linear TV broadcasts to on-demand streaming platforms.

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4. Future Predictions in Podcasting

Battling for the Top Spot: Towards the episode’s conclusion, Belloni initiates a prediction segment about which podcast might dethrone Joe Rogan as the leading podcast. Shaw expresses skepticism about liberal-leaning podcasts gaining widespread traction compared to their conservative counterparts, stating, “conservative podcasts always did much better than left wing podcasts on talk radio” (24:41).

Potential Contenders: Ashley Carman suggests that Theoban might emerge as a strong challenger, citing its diverse guest list and engaging content as key factors. Shaw also mentions Amy Poehler’s podcast as a possible contender but notes its potential limitations in political engagement. The consensus is that while new contenders may rise, Rogan’s entrenched position remains formidable due to his prolific content and broad appeal.

Sustainability of Podcast Formats: The discussion underscores the sustainability challenges faced by narrative podcasts. Shaw emphasizes the financial impracticality of producing high-cost, limited-series podcasts compared to the more financially viable, personality-driven talk shows. This trend suggests that the future of podcasting may increasingly favor formats that ensure consistent content flow and lower production costs.

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5. Concluding Insights

Final Thoughts on Media Evolution: Belloni wraps up the episode by acknowledging the dynamic nature of the media landscape, where large-scale deals like Paramount’s UFC acquisition and strategic shifts in podcasting platforms like Amazon’s Audible reflect broader trends towards consolidation and adaptation in response to changing consumer behaviors.

Significance for Hollywood and Media Professionals: For insiders and enthusiasts alike, this episode provides a comprehensive analysis of pivotal industry moves, offering valuable insights into the financial strategies, cultural implications, and future directions shaping Hollywood and the podcasting world.

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Notable Quotes:

• Matt Belloni: “Is this deal going to pencil out in the end?” (05:04)
• Lucas Shaw: “They’re betting on three possibilities” (06:09)
• Ashley Carman: “This marks the end of the serial era in podcasts” (07:10)
• Matt Belloni: “Bottom line, you think the town should be on video.” (23:22)
• Ashley Carman: “I think it's going to be Theoban.” (25:52)

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Conclusion: This episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni offers an in-depth exploration of significant shifts in both the sports entertainment and podcast industries. By dissecting Paramount’s ambitious UFC deal and the evolving podcast landscape, Belloni and his guests provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the strategic maneuvers shaping the future of digital media and Hollywood.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters, who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member today. This episode of the Town is sponsored by Netflix presenting Rebel Ridge. The Critics Choice Award winner is now an Emmy Award nominee for Outstanding TV Movie. Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone and the Associated Press all declare Rebel Ridge one of the best movies of the year.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right now at the Home Depot, you'll find storage solutions made to fit your needs.

[Matt Bellany]

Grab an HDX Tuff tote to protect.

[Lucas Shaw]

Your tools, or keep your sports equipment contained with reinforced snap fit lids. Or stack up and make better use of your space with bins and totes built to last.

[Matt Bellany]

Whatever your story, we've got the gear.

[Lucas Shaw]

To keep it organized and protected at the Home Depot. How doers get More done.

[Matt Bellany]

It is Monday, August 11th. Lots of moving in the digital media landscape. So two topics today. First, it's kind of the best and worst times in the podcast business. In some ways, the forum has never been more popular. 55% of people in the US have consumed a podcast in the past month and 40% in the last week, according to Edison Research. Each measure is an all time high. Podcast revenue was up 26% in 2024. New hits like Amy Poehler Show, Shannon Sharp they keep launching and the genre is increasingly video. YouTube accounted for more than 30% of the US podcast audience recently, and that number keeps growing. Spotify and other platforms are increasingly offering video as well. Yet on the other hand, last week Amazon, they gutted their podcast Unit Wondry, firing 110 people, folding it into Audible and putting people on a new creator services team for celebrity shows mostly focused around video, basically acknowledging that heavily produced narrative podcasts aren't a great business. Spotify is cutting back there too. They got rid of Gimlet media and podcasts. The Ringer, which produces this show is one of the only big studios left out of that buying splurge of about five years ago, and its success is an outlier. Ashley Carmen the podcast reporter at Bloomberg. She wrote that this marks the end of the serial era in podcasts, meaning the narrative podcast boom that began in 2014 has fully shifted to video talk shows. So today, Ashley is here with Lukas Shah. Normal Monday Guy. We'll also get into today's big UFC news. Paramount, which was just acquired by the Ellison family, they signed a seven year, $7.7 billion rights deal. Pay per view, not happening anymore. Paramount plus will offer all the UFC's marquee events and additional fight nights, with select events going on to cbs, the broadcast network, starting next year. Pretty staggering. But where's Paramount gonna get the money to pay for this today? No call sheet. It's a double whammy. The weird state of the podcast business and Ellison's UFC knockout punch from the ringer and puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. All right, we are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy, and Ashley Carman, reporter at Bloomberg, who covers podcasts and the music industry. We got both of you. Welcome.

[Lucas Shaw]

I know Bloomberg takeover of the town today.

[Matt Bellany]

I know I should be afraid you guys are coming for my job. All right, so we're going to start. I know my voice is not great today.

[Lucas Shaw]

You had too much fear at the Dodger game yesterday.

[Matt Bellany]

Too much. Too much screaming at the many, many players left on base during a very brutal loss. But we're going to start with UFC. UFC $7.7 billion deal over seven years. Paramount swoops in here. Netflix thought they had this deal. ESPN thought they were going to be able to get some matches. Paramount comes in over the top. This is a game changer. Correct. This is not what people expected to happen.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, I think it's a huge swing right out of the gate by David Ellison. People came in and they knew that he was going to cut costs. They knew that he was talking about technology. But the perception was that this was a company that didn't have a lot of money to spend. Right? Like their cable business is shrinking. People were asking if they even had the money to hold on to their NFL games when that deal comes up, or if the NFL exercises an opt out and he comes and bids over the top of Disney, Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, a bunch of much, much larger companies with the belief that this is going to be a major driver to the streaming service. And I think in many ways also as like a signal to the community that he's here to spend and play big.

[Matt Bellany]

So where is this money coming from? Because obviously the Ellisons are worth hundreds of billions of Dollars, but Paramount itself is not. And I spoke to someone this morning who was questioning the rationale here and saying, listen, we worked so hard to get Paramount plus to profitability. This is going to set us back years. This service is not going to be profitable for years. Are they going to be able to add enough subscribers to offset the cost of this? Because the ESPN, where the UFC matches were, they got to about 25 million subscribers. And yeah, UFC was a big part of that, but it was also part of the Disney bundle. And the Disney bundle provided, you know, the perception at least of value there. Not a lot on ESPN besides ufc, but can Paramount expect a similar number of subs? I mean, the, the big game changer here is that it's not pay per view. If you subscribe to Paramount plus, you get the UFC matches, you don't have to pay extra. But is this deal going to pencil out in the end?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, they're betting on three possibilities, I'd say, or three sources. One is that they get more people to sign up. Right? There are UFC fans who may not pay for Paramount right now and you can bring them in. Two, it'll reduce churn or cancellations because one of the things that, you know, Paramount plus has pretty high churn rate relative to some of its peers. And if they have like basically no sports over the summer. And the UFC is a year round event. So if you can have stuff where people are just going to say, okay, I like UFC enough, especially now that there's no pay per view, I'll just pay for Paramount plus for the year. That reduces a lot of customer acquisition costs and having to kind of lure back some of the people who've canceled. And then the last is they obviously hope it can generate real ad revenue between streaming and then also the matches that they put on cbs. I'm not saying it will, but their framing of it is going to be the money is backloaded, it increases over time. If we can bring in enough customers, it'll help pay for it. And they're obviously going to cut a bunch of money in other places.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, that's the thing is, does this come out of the overall content budget and do they make fewer shows? I think they do. I've been saying that for a long time.

[Lucas Shaw]

You think they make fewer shows for Paramount Plus?

[Matt Bellany]

I think so, yeah. And I think especially for cbs.

[Lucas Shaw]

But that is not what they're messaging. Their messaging is we gotta be like Netflix. We gotta make a lot. We're gonna flood the zone, but maybe make them for less than the $18 million an episode that Taylor Sheridan gets.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I, I guess that's what I'm saying. I think they. The overall content spend on Paramount plus scripted content may go down at least in the short term to pay for some of these other things. We'll see. Or may just get shifted over from what they currently do. But maybe they can dump some of this UFC cost onto CBS and the linear group because c some of these matches will air on cbs. I don't know how the accounting is going to work on that. The churn issue, I think, is a complete no brainer. This is 43 matches a year, similar to what the WWE does for Netflix and giving it some constant presence on the service. How did Netflix let this happen? Is it just that Ari Emanuel is a consultant to David Ellison as well as the CEO of of the parent company of ufc?

[Lucas Shaw]

The Ari manual factor definitely helps, but look, Ari's out there trying to get the best deal possible.

[Matt Bellany]

No one's going to question that either. I mean, this is a great deal. He doubled the rights fees.

[Lucas Shaw]

People may ask, did Ari take some advantage of David with the price? But Netflix, Amazon and YouTube all only wanted the numbered marquee matches, the stuff that had been pay per view. And so Netflix and others offered a lot of money for those, but Paramount was willing to take everything. And I think if TKO had tried to split the rights between, let's say Netflix and and espn, they might not have gotten to the number that they got to in this case. Now, you could argue that splitting between Netflix and ESPN would be better for exposure. Right, because Netflix is a much bigger platform than Paramount. But they felt like this was the.

[Matt Bellany]

Best deal and this was just us. I mean, the international rights are still largely up for grabs and Netflix could go for those. Paramount says they will be.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but I don't see Netflix wanting to take like the one off like the ufc. They're going to go for the UFC rights in Italy. That doesn't feel like a Netflix thing to do.

[Matt Bellany]

No.

[Lucas Shaw]

Ashley, do you currently pay for Paramount Plus?

[Ashley Carman]

No.

[Lucas Shaw]

And would the UFC make you pay for Paramount Plus? I'm just asking the question, Lucas.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, come on, Lucas. I'm not paying for UFC on Paramount Plus. I'm paying for Taylor Sheridan. That's what I'm paying for.

[Ashley Carman]

I am sort of curious. I mean, this is something you guys obviously follow so closely, but I come at it from the cultural angle of like, Rogan and the podcast world and all that. And then obviously the big story about Colbert being canceled and the Death of Late Night and now you have this UFC deal. Is there some sort of broader culture shift with this acquisition that we're seeing here?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, one benefit of getting these rights is that the Venn diagram of UFC and Taylor Sheridan is pretty strong. Like, there's a lot of crossover there and the CBS audience as well. And you know, CBS is the biggest, broadest broadcaster and UFC I think reaches that a cohort of that audience that will be beneficial. Now you obviously ESPN had that audience as well. So I just, I'm just saying the product brand, market fit here is pretty strong.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I'm trying to think about that, that question of a cultural shift.

[Matt Bellany]

Like is this, is this David Ellison going for the MAGA audience?

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. You know, taken together, it can appear that way. I don't know that in isolation any of those deals are like, it's a concerted strategy, per se. Right. Like the Colbert decision between the money lost on the show and maybe the added sizzle of getting the deal approved. I don't think they were like canceling Colbert because he's too left wing right now. If they were to replace him, which they're not going to, would they probably take someone who's not going to antagonize the President every night? Yes. Much as the comments that have come out on their feelings about CBS News and it being perhaps not as impartial as they'd like it to be.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, I also think these rights were available. Like if the NBA was available, they probably would have gone after that.

[Lucas Shaw]

There is no other big sports right available until the, the NFL doesn't opt out. And assuming the NFL doesn't opt out. And if that happens, frankly, the best Paramount can hope for, I would guess, is to like hold on to what they have because the NFL is so expensive, I don't think they're going to have the money to like take another package on top of what they've got.

[Matt Bellany]

It's interesting you say that because if you watched the CNBC interview with Ellison last week, David Faber, the reporter, seemed to think that Ellison already has a, at least handshake deal with the NFL to avoid that opt out and no.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, no, no, no. I'm not talking about the change of control provision that the NFL, I don't, I. Yes, the NFL is not doing the change of control with Paramount for that. I think they will use that moment to get a little some things that they want. I'm talking about the opt out that the NFL has with all of the NETWORKS in, in 29, we got a.

[Matt Bellany]

Little ways to go on that. And the other overarching thing here is that the pay per view numbers on ESPN were going down. So do. What significance do you see for the overall pay per view market in them choosing to just not do that anymore?

[Lucas Shaw]

If people are already paying 7, 8, 9, 10, 15, 20 bucks a month for streaming, you're really going to ask them to pay for events on top of it. I think it mostly goes away. I mean ESPN's new sports streaming service is 30 bucks a month. You can't expect someone to pay for something. In addition.

[Matt Bellany]

Speaking of the MAGA media angle and some of the media moves lately, I want to pivot here to what happened at Amazon this past week. We have seen a pretty big retrenchment or I guess a realignment in the podcast space. In some ways the podcast business has never been better. I mean we're seeing new hit shows, we're seeing the numbers keep going up on podcast adoption and especially, especially on video. But now one by one, these big tech players that invested heavily in the space, Spotify, which obviously disclosure produces this podcast via the ringer and Amazon, they have been pulling back. And we saw the Amazon Wondry situation last week where Wondry was not, they're very careful to say it was not eliminated, it was not shut down. But, but we're seeing a big change there. Ashley, explain to us what is really going on here.

[Ashley Carman]

Yes. So Amazon bought Wondery, I believe it was 2020 for hundreds of millions of dollars. They now are folding the Wondery brand partially into Audible. So the narrative series will go into Audible. They'll have a new creator services team that they say is going to manage like the Kelsey's, these sort of big splashy personality driven video show deals, basically allowing them to have sponsorships across all of the Amazon platforms. Like LeBron James is kind of the example here. He has a podcast. He's also a spokesperson for Prime Day. On Prime Day he also markets his own product line like it's sort of this360 taking advantage of the entire Amazon ecosystem. And then they also made some changes to their ad sales business, which is basically the ad team has leeway now to represent themselves kind of across Amazon Music and these podcasts and all of that.

[Matt Bellany]

So you wrote in your newsletter that this is the end of the serial era of podcasting. And I assume what you mean is that people are waking up to the fact that narrative podcasts that cost a lot to produce and drop on services and are one offs and that's not the business that everyone hoped it would be. And podcast is essential. They're essentially turning into talk shows, the modern equivalent of the late night shows where they're always on, they have hosts that people find appealing and they have guests or topics that sustain them. That is the, that is where we're going in podcasts, right?

[Ashley Carman]

Well, and it's video first, right? Or at least video centric. People still consume on audio, but it really is piggybacking on YouTube and TikTok and Instagram Reels and all these places where you can discover shows through video. But yeah, that is the argument I'm making is, is that serial kind of kickstarted this idea that podcasts could be mainstream, it could kick off conversations, people want to talk about podcasts, and then it has largely proven to be true. Podcasts are more relevant than ever we talked about in the context of the election. People are paying attention to podcasts. They are culturally relevant. However, to your point, those limited series, journalistic endeavors, public media strain of podcasting is really struggling here. And this is the personality, video driven aspect of podcasting that's thriving.

[Matt Bellany]

I still see a lot of the true crime stuff show up on the top lists though.

[Ashley Carman]

Totally. But they're usually always on. Also, it doesn't mean that you can't do reporting or something or tell a story. It just is that you can't really have audio. Only one off shows that go on seasonal breaks for months on end. You're going to potentially lose your audience or at least you're going to lose your sponsors and not make enough money. That's why this audiobook model with Audible actually is kind of interesting on a per unit basis. Maybe a show makes sense sold like that rather than relying on advertising because.

[Lucas Shaw]

Audible is very profitable and Amazon Music is not. Right. Audible has relatively low margin and people sign up and pay a pretty high monthly subscription fee. And they've engineered the model so that it makes sense. I mean, the other thing with podcasting that Ashley was getting at, it's like you want it to be always on. So then you can have kind of consistency with advertising and you have volume, but also you want to reduce the the cost. Right. So the appeal of a talk show, this show that you host, is like you sit in a room, the cost is not very much. The cost is you. And even with some of the true crime podcasts, they've evolved a little bit, but a lot of them are much less expensive because they don't do the extensive reporting that something like a serial did. Or some of those, those Limited series. It's sort of like, it's like making an audio documentary. Documentaries have never been a great business, whether in video or audio.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. This whole subscription model is interesting. Ashley, you cited this, what Sony Music is doing, where they have true crime series that they bundle together into a subscription that they call the binge. Is that a potential way forward to fund a lot of these more ambitious style podcasts? Like, do you need people to pay for them? And if they are good, would people pay for them? Everything I've seen on subscription podcasts outside of like Patreon or some of these other subscription pods don't really work.

[Ashley Carman]

I do think it's a way forward and the subscription business in podcasting is growing and it's pretty significant. I mean, Wondery had a subscription business that I think many places would be happy with. But when you're part of a big tech company, the returns you need and the revenue you need to make it interesting to a Amazon size company has to be way, way more significant. It is not a wondering level business. And I think part of this is also just the fact that the tech companies thought this could balloon into a huge new revenue line and that just hasn't panned out yet. They see the potential in these sponsorship deals where you're tied to NFL stars, but I don't think they're seeing it in, you know, regular journalistically driven audio series that are on for a season at a time.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And the video component, I mean, obviously video is a lot easier to sell for these platforms because many of them are already in the video sales business. But do we have any stats on whether people are actually watching the videos that these podcasts put out? Like, I know so many people who, yeah, say they watch or they consume podcasts on YouTube, but it's a minimized tab on their computer, or it's a YouTube video they put on during a walk and they don't actually watch it. Like, if I was an advertiser, I'd really want to know what is being actually watched on YouTube versus just played on YouTube.

[Ashley Carman]

Why does that distinction matter to you?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, if I'm an advertiser, it means my ad is not being shown to eyeballs, it's only being listened to.

[Lucas Shaw]

And then it's effectively an audio ad.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

And if you're paying a higher video rate from what is an audio ad? That would piss me off.

[Ashley Carman]

Audio ads are more expensive.

[Matt Bellany]

They are.

[Lucas Shaw]

Audio ads are more expensive in podcasting, I guess. Yes. Not relative to like a television advertisement.

[Ashley Carman]

Like YouTube, CPM is super low for AdSense versus, I mean podcasters. I think the average for a audio podcast ad, and maybe at this point they're including video, but the average is around $40 cpm.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. And the average for YouTube is much lower. Then why is everybody moving to YouTube? Is that just where the eyeballs are, where the audience is? You got to go there, even if it's a race to the bottom.

[Ashley Carman]

Well, for what it's worth, like the audio centric podcasters that also do video are not willing to give up their audio inventory at all. This is why Spotify has really struggled to convince podcasters to put video on the platform. The dynamic audio ads that they have in podcasts, they would have to sacrifice those in order to put video on Spotify. And that is really expensive and precious inventory that these podcasters do not want to lose. So they're not fully pivoting out of audio by any stretch. They're just now adding video in. And if you already were an audio podcaster, YouTube ad revenue is just gravy on top. It's additive versus subtractive.

[Lucas Shaw]

Using YouTube makes sense for the creator because it you can reach more, even more people because YouTube has such a big audience. I think the question you're sort of getting at is, is, does video make a lot of sense for Spotify? Right. Spotify is would argue that they need to do it because people like to watch the podcast, but it's not really why people come to Spotify. And if the CPM they get is not actually higher, then it will be somewhat counterproductive unless they really increase the amount of time spent. But competing with YouTube is usually doesn't.

[Ashley Carman]

Work out well for people, and Spotify isn't compensating them on a CPM basis now.

[Matt Bellany]

So if you watch the Bill SIMMONS podcast on YouTube, you're going to see different ads than if you listen to the Bill Simmons podcast on Spotify.

[Ashley Carman]

Potentially depending on for sure for some shows, yes. I don't know about Bill Simmons specifically, but yes.

[Matt Bellany]

And yeah, and the economics.

[Lucas Shaw]

I look forward to our text message from Bill about this exact topic.

[Matt Bellany]

Fuck you, man. My ads are great. So Ashley, how. How high does this video push go in 5 years? Are all podcasts or the vast majority of podcasts video as well, or does it top out at 50% consumption? We're at about 30 something percent right now on YouTube. So does YouTube just eat this entire business?

[Ashley Carman]

I don't think YouTube eats the entire business. I think the most successful podcasts Definitely from a popularity standpoint. And then from a revenue perspective, we'll have video included. I don't think audio is going away. I think there are plenty of people who, to your point, even with YouTube, want to listen to podcasts. So I just think the video side of this, I mean, the creator economy is so much larger than podcasting revenue. So really what could end up happening is that the video side of the business continues to grow and make more money. And podcasting as an audio only format suffers as a result because as advertisers begin putting more budget in audio and they keep putting more budget in video. So I think that's kind of where things could get a little tricky. But I don't think audio as a format is going away. It's just that the biggest shows will have video.

[Matt Bellany]

Bottom line, you think the town should be on video.

[Ashley Carman]

You seem to be killing it without video. So.

[Matt Bellany]

We'Ll do it. We are. I think we're officially the last ringer show to not have video. But at some point we will do it. The world needs to see our faces, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, especially first thing in the morning on Monday.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. All right, so instead of a call sheet today, we're going to do a prediction on which podcast has the best shot of dethroning Rogan long term. Not a one off. Not like if Taylor Swift goes on the Kelsey's podcast and that shoots the number one, I'm talking sustained, consistent number one status of a podcast. What's your pick? Can I give you mine first, please. I think the Midas touch, those guys, they are a liberal leaning, sort of resistance, anti Trump podcast that I think the Democrats have been looking for the answer to Rogan, the answer to Megyn Kelly. All these people, and there isn't that many that have a vast, broad audience. I mean, obviously the crooked media guys do. Well, I think the Midas touch podcast is the one that could be consistently number one.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'll take the other side of that bet. You can name. You can name the odds and I'll take the other side of that bet.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, really? Why you think they're going to not. This is only a function of Trump?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, that's part of it. 1. For whatever reason, like, if you think about podcasts as the new talk radio, like conservative podcasts always did much better than left wing podcasts on talk radio. And I think just given the kind of the divide in the country, being someone that like only appeals to is going to immediately alienate a large swath of your potential listener base. Makes it Very hard to be number one.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. I mean, although Tucker and Megan are up there.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. But I feel like they're also like a little flashy panty where, like, you know, they're definitely having a moment and maybe it'll last, but I don't. I don't know that I see them staying like a top 10 podcast for the next five years.

[Ashley Carman]

Also, Rogan is ostensibly a comedy show.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Ashley Carman]

Who talks about like hunting boars or whatever, whereas Midas Touch is just straight up. We're a politics show.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Rogan brings in a vast, vaster kind of potential addressable market there. But there are a lot more conservative choices. There aren't that many liberal choices in terms of mass market.

[Ashley Carman]

Yeah. So I think it's going to be Theoban.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I figured. I was going to say, you think he will. He will. The student will defeat the master.

[Matt Bellany]

Is that because he had the Rizzler on recently?

[Ashley Carman]

Yes, he had the Rizzler on. He's had Bernie on. He's also had Trump on and RFK on. I think he kind of spans the map. He goes all over. He talks about a lot of different things. He's funny and he's younger. Okay. He's in his 40s, but Rogan's getting like, kind of old.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. I mean, that's also ostensibly a comedy podcast.

[Lucas Shaw]

The only two people in the top 10 on Spotify right now that I could see doing it are Theo or your. Your ringer brethren, Amy Poehler, if that show sustained its momentum. But I think it has to be like a fun talk show that's got, like, got some comedy is a little topical. The argument against Amy would be that I don't think she's going to lean into politics in the way that Joe and Theo do. And so there'll be like certain types of, in the discussion programming that it won't work for. But I don't know that that necessarily limits you from getting to the top or like, if one of these late night show hosts chooses to do it and really has success. I think it's gotta be something that's topical and is not overtly political.

[Matt Bellany]

Wait, I'm sorry, you're saying that Poehler will succeed and get to number one by being apolitical?

[Lucas Shaw]

I think that being apolitical is both a strength but potentially slightly limiting.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay.

[Lucas Shaw]

Whereas, like, Theo Vaughn is topical but not overtly political, but he'll, like, during the election, like, have on a bunch of the candidates, which I don't see Amy doing.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. She's not she's not having Trump on, but I also don't see her. Maybe she would have had Kamala on. Maybe.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think it's tough to have one and not the other. Although I guess Alex Cooper did it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, well, and Rogan claimed that he invited Kamala and she wouldn't come to Austin or whatever. All right, so we will see. What do you guys think the likelihood of Joe Rogan being dethroned is?

[Ashley Carman]

It's pretty entrenched. So the main place I look to figure out who the top podcaster is is the Edison Research rankings. I just tend to find that they are most on the nose with the trends and actually pick up on what's coming up in the rankings. Rogan has been at number one for the entirety that they've done this and they do it through surveys. I guess the thing I don't know is whether it's like a confirmation bias where people are just like, well, yeah, I listened to Rogan because they saw a clip or something.

[Matt Bellany]

Or they know he's the most famous podcast.

[Ashley Carman]

Yeah. So that's what I don't know. It's a little tricky, man.

[Matt Bellany]

We really need accepted metrics for gauging podcasts. It's so frustrating.

[Lucas Shaw]

Do you think that there is a world in which either Alex Cooper or Smartless could be number one?

[Ashley Carman]

Personally, no.

[Matt Bellany]

No, I don't think so either. Smart List is a great show. It's a talk show. I think it's, it has ascended to where it's going to ascend to. Like those guys have other jobs as well. I, I, I just, I don't think it's going to, I don't think they're going to change much. They may go down, but I don't think they're going up.

[Ashley Carman]

And to Rogan's credit, I mean, he's recording three episodes or something a week, releasing three episodes a week. Like, he's pretty prolific in the space. And I think you do have to kind of make it your full time thing other than he does ufc, but yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

All right. Thank you, Ashley. Thank you, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

Thanks, Matt.

[Ashley Carman]

Talk to you guys soon.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guests, Lucas Shaw and Ashley Carman, producer Craig Horobeck, our editor, Jesse Lopez. I'd like to thank Halls Menthol as well. And I'd like to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times.

[Lucas Shaw]

This.