Spencer Pratt, Karen Bass, and Why California Politicians Suddenly Love Hollywood

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: Spencer Pratt, Karen Bass, and Why California Politicians Suddenly Love Hollywood
Date: May 21, 2026
Guest: Peter Hamby (Puck political writer, host of The Powers That Be and Snapchat’s Good Luck America)

---

Episode Overview

In this lively and incisive conversation, Matt Belloni and Peter Hamby dive into the unprecedented embrace of Hollywood by California’s politicians—especially within the current governor and LA mayoral races. Once regarded as an industry apart, Hollywood is now a winning political issue. The episode dissects why this sea change occurred, the mechanics of production incentives and local governance, how various candidates—especially LA Mayor Karen Bass and reality-TV-star-turned-mayoral-candidate Spencer Pratt—are playing to industry concerns, and what underlying demographic and cultural shifts this all reflects.

---

Main Discussion Points and Insights

1. Shifting Political Attention to Hollywood

• Past Separation: Historically, Hollywood’s political donations went to national races, not state or local (03:19). Politicians usually ignored the industry’s struggles and job losses.
• Current Relevance: Massive outflow of jobs (over 57,000 lost in four years) is affecting the broader LA economy, making Hollywood issues part of “regular people’s” problems—not just the elite (05:49).
• New Talking Point: Every major candidate for governor and LA mayor now touts industry support and promises reforms (00:59, 03:20).

2. The Governor’s Race: Incentives and Platitudes

• Key Contenders: Discussion on Democrats like Javier Becerra and Katie Porter, Republican Steve Hilton (07:22).
  • Becerra: Vaguely promises to support and analyze the tax credit, urges streaming transparency for workers' residuals, but with "very, very vague" specifics (08:48).
  • Hilton: Aggressively promotes increasing or removing the tax credit cap, but likely underestimates legislative resistance (07:39).
  • Porter/Mahan/Villa Ragosa: Split between keeping or lifting the cap; Teamsters support for Porter noted (09:23).
• Transparently Murky: Consensus that details are lacking, and most candidates just “come around to the idea” of Hollywood as critical for California and the nation (10:56).

3. The LA Mayor’s Race: Bass, Raman, and the Spencer Pratt Factor

• Karen Bass:
  • Under fire for being out of town during major LA fires and for minimal visible engagement in resolving recent writer/actor strikes (13:23).
  • Attempts at industry outreach include a film/TV board, fee reductions, and a new liaison, but she’s seen as an “extremely poor communicator.” Her efforts perceived as reactive, not proactive (13:23, 15:11).
  • “Only in like the last six months, has started to flick at here’s what I’ve done for Hollywood.” (15:09)
• Nithya Raman:
  • Enters as a progressive alternative with some grassroots Hollywood support, but fails to communicate a compelling rationale or message (14:45).
  • Self-recused from several city council votes on industry support due to her husband’s screenwriting career, which leaves her little to point to as achievement (16:39).
• Spencer Pratt:
  • Surprise contender and “first influencer candidate;” moving past Raman in polls and likely for a runoff against Bass (13:23, 21:26).
  • Combines grievance politics (his own house burned down during fires) with constant social media presence; frames himself as a victim-activist (21:26).
  • “He is just native to the cell phone camera.” (22:42)
  • Backed by “moneyed Westside people” and some establishment donors—Heim Saban, Lucian Grange, Jeanie Buss, Bobby Kotick, Brian Grazer (25:32; 25:48).
  • Pratt’s candidacy is mostly grievance-driven with catchy viral AI campaign videos, focusing on issues like homelessness and bureaucracy (21:26, 30:40), but “does he have a plan?... This is where he does sound like Trump: ‘I’m going to bring the smartest people in and we’ll figure it out.’” (30:40)
• “Shy Pratt” Voters:
  • Many in Hollywood quietly gravitate toward Pratt but prefer not to say so openly, echoing the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon (20:22).

4. Local Realities: Red Tape, Permits, and Quality of Life

• FilmLA & Permitting Nightmares:
  • FilmLA lambasted as a “hassle” (16:16). Fees and bureaucratic obstacles still deter productions despite attempts at reform.
  • Baywatch reboot incident: The threat of a high-profile shoot collapsing over parking fees prompted immediate political intervention, showing how fee structures still challenge productions and how politicians now scramble to be seen as problem-solvers (18:00).
• Broader Political Dynamics:
  • LA remains inherently hard to govern due to fragmented local authority “fiefdoms,” as compared to a more centralized city like New York (27:21).
  • Deep disconnect between Hollywood’s east side (creative talent, progressive donors) and west side (industry money, moderate/liberal establishment) (25:21).

5. The Homelessness and Public Safety Debate

• Top of Voter Concerns:
  • Homelessness and crime (especially visible problems) fuel voter discontent and open the door for outsider and more populist candidates.
  • Spencer Pratt leverages emotional communication, riffing on these visible problems more effectively than traditional politicians, even without detailed policy (28:46–30:12).
  • “Everyone is a Democrat until a vagrant takes a shit in your yard.” —Alex Villanueva, quoted by Peter Hamby (32:58).

6. The Trump Connection and Party Realignment

• Trump’s Endorsement of Spencer Pratt:
  • Seen more as a badge for right-leaning outsiders but may hurt with LA’s overwhelming liberal/Democratic electorate (00:59, 24:10).
• Larger Party Shifts:
  • Some lifelong Democrats (e.g., pro-Israel voters, pragmatic centrists) now drift toward rightward or “law-and-order” candidates, a shift evident in both donor behavior and campaign strategy.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "All of these candidates...have fallen over themselves to declare themselves allies of the entertainment industry. How did this happen? Because for years, this was an industry that was sort of foreign even to the leaders of LA." —Matt Belloni (03:20)
• "The bottom line is this is all very, very vague." —Peter Hamby (09:23)
• "Spencer Pratt, his house burned down in the Palisades...so he is coming at this from ‘I am a victim.’ And then that activism, and on social media, by the way...he is just native to the cell phone camera." —Peter Hamby (21:26–22:42)
• "Is this just a white west side phenomenon?" —Peter Hamby (24:10)
• "You couple that with what's going on in Hollywood, with the content recession and all the problems that the industry is having and all of the residual effects that we've talked about, and it leads a lot of Hollywood people, I think, to consider someone like him [Spencer Pratt]." —Matt Belloni (30:12)
• "His plans...this is where he does sound like Trump: 'I'm going to bring the smartest people in, and we'll figure it out.'" —Peter Hamby (30:40)
• "Everyone is a Democrat until a vagrant takes a shit in your yard." –LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva, as quoted by Hamby (32:58)

---

Key Timestamps

• 00:59: The main issue—Why are California politicians suddenly courting Hollywood?
• 03:20: Hollywood’s historic separation from local/state politics.
• 05:49: Scope of LA’s job losses and the broader economic impact.
• 07:22–10:56: Deep dive on governor candidates’ Hollywood stances—mostly platitudes, little detail.
• 13:23–18:00: LA mayor race breakdown—critique of Bass and the unexpected rise of Spencer Pratt.
• 18:00: Baywatch incident as a microcosm of bureaucratic issues.
• 20:22: "Shy Pratt" voter phenomenon explained.
• 21:26–25:32: Pratt’s campaign strategy, donors, and voters’ motivations.
• 30:40: Pratt’s lack of specifics and populist Trumpian messaging.
• 32:58: Alex Villanueva’s blunt take on public safety and political realignment.

---

Episode Tone and Takeaways

Belloni and Hamby’s discussion is direct, funny, and slightly exasperated with the vagueness of political promises. The tone is skeptical but conversational, with a clear-eyed view of the real issues facing both Hollywood and Los Angeles at large. The episode provides a jolt of clarity for listeners seeking to understand not just the racehorse aspects of current LA and California politics, but also the deeper forces shaping Hollywood’s awkward but growing entwinement with local power.

---

For further reading:

• Peter Hamby’s Puck article on the “shy Pratt” voter
• Local news on the Baywatch reboot production controversy
• Recent polling and candidate statements on Hollywood incentives, taxes, and industry reforms

---

This summary omits ad reads, superficial banter, and non-content sections, focusing solely on the core political and industry discussion.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

Foreign. This episode of the Town is brought to you by Stars as Outlander. Everything has led to this. The final chapter of the time traveling drama and cultural phenomenon starring Sam Heughan and Catriona Balf is only on stars. Vogue declares Outlander one of television's greatest love stories. And the rap raves Balf and Heughan have perfected this on screen relationship. Industry voters can access all [e-mail] now

[Peter Hamby]

on Acorn TV, there's a killer on the loose. Brooke Shields stars in the new original murder mystery. You're killing me. You spin some crackpot theory and I find the evidence. I solve mysteries for a living. I think I'm good to go.

[Matt Bellany]

Murder has met its match.

[Peter Hamby]

You cannot be here. This is a police investigation.

[Craig Horbeck]

I've written you.

[Peter Hamby]

What does that mean?

[Craig Horbeck]

He was a big city cop with a small jurisdiction.

[Peter Hamby]

Boomers are so cute when they flirt. You're killing me.

[Matt Bellany]

All new episodes now on Acorn TV. It is Thursday, May 21. As long as I've been covering the entertainment business, the politics of Hollywood have been almost totally separate from the politics of the physical place where Hollywood is located. Many of the big industry players, most of them Democrats and a lot of them transplants from elsewhere, they raise money for Senate campaigns in Michigan or Pennsylvania, but largely ignore state and local races here in la. And for the most part, the feeling has been mutual. California politicians have always taken Hollywood as a job creator for granted. State production incentives, which have become so important in the business, have typically hit a wall in the California legislature. And local politicians have made it complicated and onerous and expensive to shoot in the city, contributing to the exodus of jobs over the past few years. But that's all kind of changing now. Listen to the candidates, especially those running for governor and mayor of la. They love Hollywood. Now, each of the major contenders for governor wants to increase state production incentives, which were already raised to 750 million per year by Governor Newsom. All the major candidates for mayor in LA are talking about bringing back these Hollywood jobs. Of course, they were largely silent as the jobs left in the first place. But there's definitely a feeling that Hollywood is a winning political issue. Now, just yesterday, a the powerful below the line union, they endorsed Karen Bass, the current LA mayor, and the Teamsters have also backed her. And then there's Donald Trump, who endorsed Spencer Pratt, the reality show villain and turned influencer turned mayor candidate. Not sure Pratt really wanted that one, but he's got it. So how did this political shift happen? Is it just that the industry has been hit so hard. Or is it something else going on today? I've got Peter Hamby here to discuss. He's a political writer at Puck based in LA and he's also the host of the podcast the Powers that Be and the very popular Good Luck America show, Snapchat. We're going to have a very civilized and no BS discussion of Hollywood and politics. The governor and mayor's races from the industry's perspective, and of course, the Spencer Pratt question from the ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay, we are here with Peter Hamby, writer at Puck, where I work, a video star at Snapchat. What else am I missing here? MAN about town. The king, the mayor of Venice Beach.

[Peter Hamby]

The mayor of Venice, Former cnn.

[Matt Bellany]

Former CNN guy.

[Peter Hamby]

Yes, Reds fan.

[Matt Bellany]

Unlike you, yes, you are a Reds fan. I my condolences. So thank you for coming on because we don't do a lot of politics on this show, but I feel like it has been shoved in our faces now for a few weeks. It is hilarious to me that all of these candidates were for governor and for mayor of la. All of a sudden discovered that Hollywood is a thing and that maybe it could use some help from the government because it's in kind of a bad place right now. And all of these candidates have fallen over themselves to declare themselves allies of the entertainment industry. How did this happen? Because for years this was an industry that was sort of foreign even to the leaders of la. There wasn't a lot of interaction. A lot of the big industry power players that donated to candidates, they would donate to national races. They didn't really pay much attention to state and local races. And all of a sudden now you can't turn on the TV in LA without seeing an ad from some politician promising to fix Hollywood.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, I should say that, I mean, this isn't something that Gavin Newsom ignored. I want to point out Gavin Newsom 2 years ago, expand the state tax credit for film and TV production, you know, with an eye on the numbers.

[Matt Bellany]

That true, but he did that after the fires and after the strikes and it, after it got to a place where he couldn't ignore it. And you and I, I. You talk to him all the time. But I talked to him at the puck event in D.C. and he was describing it as always a challenge to get anything pro Hollywood through the state legislature because they just don't care. And most, you know, LA is the biggest constituency, but most of the people in the state legislature are outside of Southern California. So they're not going to care about it, but all of a sudden they do.

[Peter Hamby]

So look, I think that Newsom was hip to the fact that as you cover all this time on the pod on this town, that the numbers are bad. I mean, people are going not just to New York and Georgia, but now New Jersey, all these other states. So I think he just bec. Became aware of the fact, Governor Newsom, that this was happening pretty recently. I think the decline, you tell me, Matt, I think film and TV production peaked what year? 2022, and it's been downhill ever since.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, and I think the difference maker is when you start to look at the numbers and you see that 57,000 jobs have been lost in the past four years. And it's starting to bleed into other aspects of the economy, the restaurant economy and the services economy and even, you know, a lot of the, the tertiary ancillary businesses around entertainment. That's when you start to see the politicians get involved because it's no longer the, you know, the, the Beverly Hills liberals or the west side liberals that are not necessarily the focus, but it's regular people and it's always been regular people. But that was not the impression in government. So what are the specific candidates talking about? Because there's a lot of things on the table now. There's everything from, you know, a push to reduce or eliminate the cap on production incentives to there's, you know, a separate bill that is moving forward to add an incentive for below the line or post production to bring that back to the state. What are the individual candidates talking about? Let's go first to Governor and then we'll get into the LA mayor.

[Peter Hamby]

I'm except more excited to talk with the mayor's race.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, I know. But let's talk about the governors because this is the one that actually matters. This, the LA mayor. Like, yes, they can do things to cut red tape and everything, but what really matters is whether California is going to become competitive for production incentives. So what are the candidates saying?

[Peter Hamby]

It really all comes back to that tax credit. Most candidates want to maintain it. There is some differential between all of the different candidates running for office. And again, the, these are mostly Democrats in this jungle primary. Steve Hilton is probably going to advance because Trump has endorsed him on the Republican side.

[Matt Bellany]

But he, he's been very aggressive. He's talking about like doubling or, or eliminating the cap. He wants the most aggressive. But I don't think he, I don't think he totally realizes how difficult that would be with the state legislature.

[Peter Hamby]

The other one is Javier Becerra, who jumped in this race and kind of didn't have a ton of detailed policy plans. But I spoke to his policy team the other day and they gave me some insight into what's different from. From the other candidates because this is, again, important because he might actually become the governor.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, he has the best chance of winning.

[Peter Hamby]

Yes, a lot of Gavin Newsom's people are also helping Javier Becerra. His plan also, you know, focuses on keeping the tax credit. He said he would be a little more mindful of the budget and keep re. Sorry his team said this at least that they would be mindful of the budget and revisiting how it affects the budget, unlike Mahan, unlike Villa Ragosa. One thing that they said differentiates Becerra's ideas around helping the biz is he would. Wants to create a lot of transparency for how shows perform in the streaming world. So that would basically help with residuals and other payments for workers.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, that's a big topic. We talk about that a lot on the show. He essentially wants there to be more transparency in data consumption where talent would get access to more of what their work is generating and which is a great thing. But I don't know how he would force that. You'd have to enact some kind of a law that you don't get access to certain things unless you reveal it or something like that. Seems kind of difficult. But what is he saying? Is Becerra saying anything about the cap on production incentives? Because that's the big issue with Becerra

[Peter Hamby]

again, the front Democratic frontrunner, who, if you put betting money on Kelshi right now, is probably going to be the governor. They're pretty vague about what he's going to do. They say that they're going to keep an eye on how it's going to impact the economy and good California paying jobs and the budget. Mahan and Villa Rugosa are saying no cap. Like, let's just figure it out later. Katie Porter is saying this kind of the same thing as Becerra that they want to keep, keep the cap at 750. But, you know, she's been endorsed by the Teamsters, by the way. I should say that they work on a lot of sets around town here. So look, Matt, this is all. The bottom line is this is all very, very vague. And I think a lot of these candidates, Democrats and Republicans, have come around to the idea that Hollywood, and this is. This is sort of a Trump take that Hollywood isn't just something that's important for California, it's important for the country. Like, it is a very symbolic thing. And all these candidates, including Becerra and the folks I talked to on his campaign the other day, said that he's one of the only guys with experience in Washington. Not that he's going to have an open door in the Trump administration, which by the way, will be over in two years, but that he knows how the levers of power work. You know, people in the Biden administration might disagree with that from his time as HHS secretary. Some have said that publicly. But you know, the candidates who do have experience in Washington are, are saying that it's important to have somebody who can go to dc, Shake some hands, knows whose office is where, knows which budget is where, etc and that they can sort of keep that relationship going.

[Matt Bellany]

All right. Well, it's all frustrating. This is why we don't do politics that much on the show, because there's a lot of platitudes, not a lot of specifics. This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG Whenever I'm traveling for work, Holiday Inn has always been my go to and now even more so than ever, it has a whole new energy, especially for business travelers. Spaces that feel like your living room and dining done right from breakfast to dinner and drinks. Whether you're traveling for work or getting away for a minute, it's comfort that hits different. Holiday Inn. It's a new day and a new stay. Book your next [e-mail] the LA Mayor race. Who is the normal candidate that is going to help the industry here? I mean, what is, what are people supposed to make of this? You've got this episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by ihg. Everyone knows Holiday Inn, right? Or they think they do because though they have the same name, they've got a whole new energy. They kept the global icon status and upgraded pretty much everything else. We're talking modern rooms with real reset mode vibes, spaces that feel like your living room just a little more low key chic and dining done right from breakfast to dinner and drinks. Whether you're traveling for work or getting away for a minute, it's comfort that hits different. So yeah, Holiday Inn. It's a new day and a new stay. Book your next [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by FX's the Lowdown from acclaimed Reservation Dogs creator Sterling Harjo. The series stars five time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawke as Lee Raybon, a self described Tulsa Trusorian whose fixation on the truth tends to create more problems than it solves. This gloriously off kilter noir IS is an AFI television program of the year and one of 2025's most critically acclaimed shows. The Lowdown is available for your Emmy consideration on Hulu and Disney for bundle subscribers. Karen Bass, the mayor who was roundly criticized for being out of town during the LA fires and from my vantage point hasn't really done much to help the industry during her time. She's now cutting fees by 20% at Griffith Observatory and things like that. That don't seem like a lot of, a lot of benefit there. She was not really a factor in helping to get the Writers Guild and SAG AFTRA strikes settled when that was a thing. She was mayor then.

[Peter Hamby]

Let's set back a little bit. So in the mayor's race, you have the incumbent and I agree with you. Karen Bass has been an extremely poor communicator. When she came back to Los Angeles in 2022 from Congress, I think this was even one of her TV ads. She was here. She said, los Angeles is on fire and I'm here to save it. Well, you know, Los Angeles then was actually on fire and she was in Ghana. Her approval rating is in the pits. I think it's in the 30s right now. She might emerge after being left for dead politically after the fires as one of the luckiest candidates in recent memory because we have this open primary and she's got two challengers, Spencer Pratt, who is not going to win the primary and is not going to win the mayor's office, but has captured the attention of enough Angelenos that he has crept past City Councilman Nithya Raman, the progressive, you know, half, half foot in dsa, half foot out at dsa. But she, she came into the race earlier this year as the palatable progressive alternative to Karen Bass and has completely failed to launch. She has no message. Anytime you run for office, for any office, at any level, you need to have a clear, compelling rationale for running for office. It's the whole bumper sticker thing, Matt. And she's got the backing of plenty

[Matt Bellany]

of people, including a lot of Hollywood people.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And not necessarily like moguls. Like back in 2022 when you know, Ari Emanuel and Jeffrey Katzenberg and Ted Sarandos were publicly having fundraisers for Karen Bass or Rick Caruso. This is more like Famous Faces. You know, I'm thinking of, for example, Mindy Kaling Or Colin Jost, like actors. And Nithya Raman, every time she's on Instagram, it's, you know, she's hanging out in Silver Lake at a DJ set.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Her husband's a screenwriter.

[Peter Hamby]

Yes, exactly. But the thing with Nithya Raman is there's no message in the first place. And we saw this in the debate. It's that you can't just run and say, I'm running against Karen Bass. And you have to have a very clear contrast message which she has failed to present. And so you have Spencer Pratt creeping past Nithya Raman in the horse race, in every pole, et cetera. And the top two make the runoff. Karen Bass would love to run against Spencer Pratt in the runoff because he's a registered Republican, even though it's a nonpartisan race, and she would probably smoke him. Nithya Raman could beat Karen Bass. But back to your original question. Bass, only in, like, the last six months, has started to flick at here's what I've done for Hollywood. As you mentioned, she, you know, appointed this film and TV board. She's talked about, you know, she appointed somebody to be a liaison. And Nith Rahman has criticized her for this. What's the guy's name, Matt?

[Matt Bellany]

Steve Kang.

[Peter Hamby]

Steve Kang, who doesn't have experience working in Hollywood, but he understands how the different agencies, you know, do permitting and streamlining and all these processes.

[Matt Bellany]

Film LA is notorious. Everybody hates them.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

They have this exclusive contract to run film shoots and permit, and it's just a huge hassle. And their fees are gigantic compared to some other jurisdictions, and doesn't seem like there's much change there, despite them saying they're streamlining the process. And it just. I. I don't know. It doesn't. It's not convincing.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah, well, and just to go back to what we were talking about before, a lot of this just goes back to the tax credit in Sacramento. And even Nithya Rahman gave an interview the other day where she said she would be a loud advocate for that tax credit. And by the way, one other thing about Nithya Raman, the city council, again, has started to pay attention to this a little bit more. And I think Karen Bass has been trying to, you know, do streamlining, fee things and lower parking costs. There were seven Matt votes on helping, you know, the film industry in Los Angeles in March of this year of March 2026. And then Nithya recused herself from four of those votes. And so Bass's team is pointing to that Saying she doesn't have anything to talk about on this. She doesn't care about the industry. Now, Nithya Raman's take is that because her husband is a screenwriter and a showrunner that she didn't want. It was a conflict of interest for her to be involved. But at the same time, it's left her without something to point to that I did this, I did that. Maybe that was principled politics and principled governing. But it's left her really without anything to stand on in the mayor's race. Now, I think the Baywatch episode from a few months ago illustrates what's going on here a little bit. A little bit. And also some misinformation stuff that's happening too.

[Matt Bellany]

Explain what happened there.

[Peter Hamby]

So over here, where I'm in Venice, you know, the state and the mayor's office and our city councilwoman Tracy park in CD 11 came together, by the way, using money from this tax credit program to land this Baywatch reboot that Fox is doing and film a lot of it on Venice Beach. And then I guess there's some anonymous Instagram account. Anyone listening to the town can, can write in and tell me what this is. But some someone working on the set said they showed up to film and the night of or the day before, they were told, well, you haven't paid the proper parking fees. And someone leaked this and said this film shoot is about to collapse because they haven't abided by the permitting process or whatever fees. And then again, this was only a couple months ago, Karen Bass, keen to the fact that this is a real issue in the race, snapped to attention, worked with Tracy park, who is one of her antagonists on the city council, a little bit to her right. And you know, got this together because it was such a big story for Karen Bass and something she could point to in the mayoral that hey, we're bringing this work back to Los Angeles. The minute there was a whiff of this shoot collapsing, you know, she really got to work. But it just illustrated how many little fees and processing processy things there are beyond just, you know, California giving people tax credits. Once you get to Los Angeles, you do have to go through film LA for, you know, a bunch of different reasons. And Nithya Raman is also saying this too. She wants to streamline the process. But this gets to what this gets to. What Bass is smartly doing, despite being very unpopular, is anytime Spencer Pratt to her right or nithyaraman to her left says something, she kind of co ops it. And as the incumbent mayor. Even though she's not a great communicator, she is still the sitting mayor. She has many more millions of dollars to spend on paid media is kind of co opting the most appealing parts of each side's message and taking it as her own. The other thing I will say to Bass's credit, or at least something that is one of her calling cards, is that she used to be the speaker of the State assembly way back in the day before she went to Congress during post recession California's huge budget crisis. And she was one person who pushed through the original tax credit back I think in 2010. And so that's something she's also saying as she goes around town, although that

[Matt Bellany]

wasn't clearly very effective if the decade that followed were some of the most runaway production that we've ever seen. But what it is something. You wrote a piece for Puck last week that was a good overview of this race. And you explained a concept called the shy Pratt voting. And that resonated with me because I talk to people and people text me around Hollywood and they are those people, the shy Pratt voters. They're not going to announce that they are voting for this guy. You can call him an eccentric candidate, but he's putting out these AI videos of himself as Batman. He's got these billboards around town of, you know, an apocalypse happening and he's the only savior. Like, explain the Pratt phenomenon and what is going on? Is this just pure grievance and is this a sign that people in LA want change and are fed up with the leadership, or is this some kind of weird celebrity thing going on?

[Peter Hamby]

So many threads to pull on there. Let's start with is this a grievance thing? Yes. But at the same time, that gives him a clear and compelling point of view on the race. And like I said, Nithya Raman got in the races and hasn't really been able to articulate why she is the most compelling alternative to Karen Bass with all of her, you know, failures, real or perceived. Spencer Pratt, his house burned down in the Palisades partly because the Santa Ynez reservoir was empty. Him and him and Bass have fought over the, you know, wind speeds and whether you could fly planes, et cetera. So he is coming at this from I am a victim. And then that activism and on social media, by the way, a lot of people get this take a little bit wrong, in my opinion. I wrote about this. Spencer Pratt was obviously the villain in the Hills whenever that show was on in the 2000s on MTV and people call him a reality star. They compare him to Trump. There's some of that. Spencer Pratt loves nicknames. He knows how to break the fourth wall. He's funny at times, but he's really the first influencer candidate. Ever since he was famous on cable television, he has gone over to Snapchat, Instagram, TikTok, and really leaned into the vertical video content creator thing. For many years before the fires, he was. He would film hummingbirds at his house. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Wasn't he selling crystals?

[Peter Hamby]

He said, loves crystals. You know, he would be a hype woman, like a big wife guy for his wife, Heidi Montag. And so he is just native to the cell phone camera. And so once the fires happen, he used that to criticize Karen Basura, as he says, and Gavin Newsom. And then, by the way, and this gets to what I think is a real question, is the Spencer Pratt phenomenon. And the phenomenon is limited. He's only polling at like 15, 20%. Actually. It should. I think it's around 20%, according to the most recent Emerson poll, ahead of Nithya Raman. But is this just a white west side phenomenon? Is this just, you know, people in Brentwood and Palisades and other white pox of the city, whether they can vote or not in the city itself? Because we know Santa Monica and Culver and weho, you know, broke off many years ago, Pasadena. But people with gardeners, people with nannies who have kids and don't want to see homeless people or drug addicts near their schools, near their playgrounds. I see it in Venice all the time. Of course. It's a real concern. And so Spencer Pratt's strength, I will say, is just forcing Democrats, including Karen Bass, to pay attention to these issues and exposing, I think, the frailty of Democratic politics and sort of polite, tolerant responses to street homelessness that clearly aren't working right. And so, like, I think that's the phenomenon. However, the question for Spencer Pratt is, does he have any appeal in black or Latino neighborhoods in the rest of the city, like to win? And this is Karen Bass calling card. She's got decades, half of her life being an activist in South Los Angeles. She's got unions, she's got Chirla, she's got activists of all races. And Spencer Pratt and by the way, on the different side of the spectrum, Nithya Raman, both feel like white voter phenomenons. And the question in the primary. And I can't wait to see what these precinct returns look like, because if Spencer Pratt is able to get over 30% in Latino neighborhoods. Wow, that's impressive. But for now, it does feel like the quote, unquote, shy Pratt voter donor also that you're talking about. You know, they. If he was a Democrat, maybe they'd be more willing to put their name on it. And plenty of people are, but he's not Rick Caruso. Rick Caruso spent, you know, millions of his own dollars. He's a billionaire and still, you know, is more palatable to Democrats. Ran as a independent turned Democrat and still lost to Karen Bass by 10 points. Different environment. This is a different election. But Pratt is still. Spencer Pratt, 1 and 2, is a registered Republican in a city that broke overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders over Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential primary. That's how liberal the city of Los Angeles is.

[Matt Bellany]

But yet we see here a dichotomy. When I put this in Hollywood terms. Spencer Pratt is the west side Hollywood person and Nithya Rahman is the east side Hollywood person.

[Peter Hamby]

Yes.

[Matt Bellany]

And you see it in the donors, where you've got, you know, Mindy Kaling and the sort of creative class on the east side are for her. And then Spencer Pratt has, like Heim Saban and Lucien Grange, the head of Universal Music. Yes.

[Peter Hamby]

Jeie Buss, Bobby Kotick.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. Brian Grazer. The sort of moneyed Westside people who frankly didn't have any real reason to care about city politics until their neighborhood in the Palisades burnt down. And they felt that the government that they had paid taxes to all these years wasn't there the one time they needed them. And they don't like homelessness, and. Well, nobody likes homelessness, but they are particularly attentive to the homelessness issue and quality of life issues that are now at the forefront, thanks to this. This guy with a megaphone.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah, that's exactly right. And look, this gets back to me saying he's not crazy. Like, he is a outsider in politics. He doesn't really have a filter, except when he does. And that's the thing when you talk. And by the way, there are plenty of loud Trump voters. Those AI videos you mentioned, he's actually not making those. His supporters are. And then he's retweeting them and reposting them and sort of getting donations and going viral off of other people's creations. And I've talked to some people, by the way, this is kind of testing the boundaries of independent expenditure groups and sort of fundraising disclosures. Those AI ads created by his supporters who don't live in Los Angeles, many of them and are going really viral with national conservatives like Megyn Kelly or Clay Travis or whatever. People who don't live here or vote here, they're kind of doing the same work as independent expenditure television ad is doing, which have to disclose their donors, have to disclose, you know, who's funding the ad. And this is just like free AI slop that is helping him go mega viral, raise money, get attention. He's really like breaking a lot of boundaries. So again, I sound like a political hack who's sort of obsessed with process and whatnot. But the thing to Spencer Pratt's credit is, yes, it's a grievance driven campaign against Democrats. Yes. But also corrupt insiders who aren't doing anything about these people on the street. The slow police response times, animal abuse and skid row. It's very easy to run against somebody and just point at what's wrong without necessarily having a huge vision for the city and governing the city. Like in my piece about this for Puck, I referred to the competing jurisdictions that occasionally manage to govern this city. There's the county, there's the city council, there's the mayor, there's the water commission. Like la. I mean, this goes back to like Chinatown. I mean, like LA is kind of an ungovernable place where there's different fiefdoms who have different power and it's not New York City. And so it's very hard to govern and hard for Karen Bass to even govern. You have to be a ceremonial leader. And that's one reason she's failed, is she's not a great communicator who hasn't communicated a vision.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, it's definitely gotten worse in the last four years. I mean, post Covid, many cities have recovered from COVID LA has not recovered from COVID And you see it everywhere you look. And I think that's what's fueling a lot of this openness to someone like Spencer Pratt.

[Peter Hamby]

Absolutely. And look, Karen Bass will say the homelessness count has dropped for the last two years. That's in her paid media ads. But Spencer Pratt says that's a lie, that the RAND Corporation has different figures. You just have to live here. I mean, even my wife says it and she's a big Democrat, but she's like, people outside the country don't understand why people gravitate toward someone like Spencer Pratt. But there are some moderate Democrats and people who would never vote for Trump, who have told me, who have been in rooms with Spencer Pratt, who are like, I'm gonna vote for him. I'm gonna give him some money because it's so visible here, Matt. And all of us have a story. It leads to local news every night. Look, violent crime is down in the city. Like, credit to Mayor Bass, credit to Chief McDonnell. Homicides are down at their lowest level in, like, 40 years, but home invasions are still up, and that's on the local news every night. You don't have to go 10ft in this city without seeing something. And that's where Pratt's powers come in as an emotional communicator. Those things might be anecdotal. They might not be backed up by any, like, widespread statistics, but you go and see the homeless, like, on my street in Venice, I was walking my baby the other day in her stroller. We have a swing over here near Abbot Kinney, by the way. And there was a guy who was drugged out with his pants down, sitting on her favorite swing. Formerly favorite, but, like, I'm like, I don't want that guy on my kid's swing. Like, what? Like that's an anecdote. Yeah, but he's tapping into that and visualizing it on all of his social media channels. And his. His powers as a communicator are clearly having an impact.

[Matt Bellany]

You couple that with what's going on in Hollywood, with the content recession and all the problems that the industry is having and all of the residual effects that we've talked about, and it leads a lot of Hollywood people, I think, to consider someone like him.

[Peter Hamby]

Yeah, no, absolutely.

[Matt Bellany]

But does he have a plan? What is his plan for Hollywood and for homelessness? Or is this just empty calories trolling to get yourself into the national spotlight?

[Peter Hamby]

Well, I sent this to you before we got on the pod here. He wrote a substack post, whether he wrote it or not, by the way, basically complaining about all the things we're talking about. The fees he called the. He calls film la, a bunch of. He calls them permit narcs. They show up on a set, like, sort of scrutinizing what's wrong, and they figure out ways to delay your shoot and make you pay more. He talks about all the fees that get gobbled up from the budget, like, even before filming starts again. It's a lot of pointing the finger and saying, this is what's wrong. His plans. This is where he does sound like Trump are. I'm gonna bring the smartest people in, and we'll figure it out. I worked in entertainment. I know people. I'm gonna get this done. There are people like Brett Ratner And Bobby Kotick and Chaim Saban, who is, by the way, a huge lifelong Democrat. It's surprising that he gave money to him. But there's a lot of pro Israel Jewish folks in this city who have drifted to the right in recent years because of anti Semitism, because of whatever reason this happened in the Trump election in 2024, and the Persian community. But Spencer Pratt is vowing to put more cops outside of synagogues. He's vowing to use the cops to go after hate crimes. Anti Semitism won't be tolerated. And so I think a lot of the, the Jewish votes in this city. I talked to two entertainment executives, Matt, for my piece, who were like, I know a lot of people who voted for Biden and Kamala who are voting for Spencer Pratt.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, they text me. I've, I've heard from them, too. But of course, they don't want to be public.

[Peter Hamby]

Totally. It's funny, there are so many loud Spencer Pratt supporters on the Internet. And obviously there's people putting their names on their donations, like, you know, Lucian and Elliot Grange and Jeannie Buss and Bobby Kotick. Their names are in the reports. They can see them. But then there's also people who, you know, live in Brentwood or Venice or Palisades or used to live in Palisades and don't want to offend their polite society liberal friends. So they're quietly voting for Pratt. If he was Rick Caruso, they wouldn't be quiet about it.

[Matt Bellany]

Right? Rick Caruso is much more palatable to polite society. But the, the New York Times reported that Nicole Avant was going to support Pratt and she was Obama's ambassador to the Bahamas and is married to Ted Sarandos. They are very prominent Democrats. And although Ted supported Rick Caruso in the last race, that would be a very big deal if she supports Spencer Pratt.

[Peter Hamby]

Well, look, here's a. Look, here's a. I know this isn't a politics podcast, but in recent years, especially after Kamala Harris lost in 2024, a lot of pragmatic Democrats, strategists and politicians have been really stressing Democrats need to get back to basics. Government should work, the streets should be safe. We don't need to defund the police, and we should, you know, there shouldn't be drug addicts next to your school. I interviewed the former LA county sheriff who's very controversial, Alex Villanueva, a couple years ago, I think during the 2022 mayoral race. He's a former Democrat turned Fox News Republican. He gave me an all Time quote, that sums this up. He said, and he was talking about Los Angeles, but he goes, everyone is a Democrat until a vagrant takes a shit in your yard. And that just gets to the Pratt phenomenon, which is there are lots of highfalutin ideas out there on the left. There's lots of pie in the sky Do Gooder progressivism out there on the left. But at the end of the day, if you're paying taxes as a homeowner, you want the cops to show up on time. You want your kid to be safe when they go to school. These might be the concerns again, of white people on the west side of Los Angeles. We'll see if Spencer Pratt can cut into black communities or Latino communities in the city, which are very important, especially in the general election when the turnout is higher. I'm skeptical he can, but at least I think Democrats in D.C. have told me this. Again, privately, they don't want their name on this, but they really respect the fact that Spencer Prout is a forcing mechanism. He's forcing Democrats who are running against him to speak to the concerns around public safety and homelessness in this city, which have been endemic for decades. You know, none of this stuff is new, but it has gotten worse, visibly. And if Democrats can figure out a way to talk like normal people and relate to normal people around public safety, that I think can help the party in the long run, instead of talking about things like defund the police or prison abolition, which are clearly outside the mainstream.

[Matt Bellany]

Well. And if it doesn't work out for Spencer Pratt, his price on Cameo will probably go up a lot, thanks to this, so. And he'll sell more crystals and hummingbirds or whatever he's.

[Peter Hamby]

And Heidi Montag will release more albums. Exactly.

[Matt Bellany]

All right. Thank you, Peter. Appreciate it.

[Peter Hamby]

It

[Matt Bellany]

Today's call sheet is brought to you by Holiday Inn by ihg, the global icon you love, but with a whole new energy and comfort that hits different than before. Craig, we missed you at the Mandalorian and Grou premiere last week in la. I took my kid instead. He loved it.

[Craig Horbeck]

Do you think that was a wise move? Do you think your son liked it more than I would have?

[Matt Bellany]

I think he did, yes. He loved the show and had to be told that this was a movie, not a show. But once he was into it, he really liked it. Critics, not so much. It's hovering around the 65th high 50s. Not quite splatter territory on Rotten Tomatoes.

[Craig Horbeck]

Not rotten. It is 1% above rotten.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, try putting that in a blurb. I don't know, man, this one is tough. Like Favreau, amazing. Did a nice job with this movie, but the energy just isn't there. The seven year break just this became a TV franchise and now they're trying to get the gang back together and I think it's going to be tough, man. The tracking is about 80 to 85 for the four day, according to NRG. I've seen higher, I've seen some that think it will get into the 90s, maybe even close to 100 for the weekend. It does skew younger, which sometimes the tracking does not reflect. But man, that's tough because the Star wars story, that is the comp here, Solo, that one opened to 103 for the four day and that was back in 2018 over the same Memorial weekend. And that one got to, I believe it was almost 400, like 390 the difference. This movie, considerably cheaper than the 275 million or so that they spent on Solo after all the reshoots and the chaos in that movie. So they don't have to get to a huge number. But if you release a Star wars movie and it doesn't get to 400 million worldwide, not great.

[Craig Horbeck]

This feels like the last vestige of this previous era of Star wars that we're in that, that we all can't wait to end.

[Matt Bellany]

The Kathy Kennedy era.

[Craig Horbeck]

Well, just the era of turning all of the Star wars properties into TV shows and now kind of extracting one and throwing it on the big screen. Like, this is not something anybody hasn't said before. But I, I think this movie will probably do really well on streaming and not going to do well in movie theaters.

[Matt Bellany]

I, you know what I think I, I hope for Favreau's case, you know, on Favreau's behalf, that it does fine. I fear that it's not. So I, let's set the line at 85 for the four day. I think I'm going to take the

[Craig Horbeck]

under under on 85. Even.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, I know now I feel like I've lowballed a little. The line should probably be 90, but I think I'm going to take the under on 85.

[Craig Horbeck]

It's just hard. I mean, even Solo and Rogue One, that was still in the heyday of like Force Awakens was a huge hit. Rogue One made a billion dollars. 2018 theaters were in a completely different place. I mean, this just has everything going against it other than Favreau, who's a great director. But like, this is a TV show, there's a movie Star in it. Whose face?

[Matt Bellany]

You don't see no stars.

[Craig Horbeck]

Well, it's Pedro Pascal, but you don't see his face.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, you don't even. But you do see it at one spoiler. You do see his face. But, like, why is Jeremy Allen White in this movie? He didn't even show up at the premiere.

[Craig Horbeck]

He's probably filming that one episode of the Bear.

[Matt Bellany]

No, no, he. It's his voice. This is going to sound ridiculous, but he plays Jabba the Hud's son.

[Craig Horbeck]

Oh, okay.

[Matt Bellany]

Who's, like, at one point, there's like a CGI fight amongst slugs in this movie. It's kind of ridiculous. Although that was my. My kid's favorite part. But, yeah, no stars. Nothing really to hang this on except Star wars, and I don't think that's enough these days. So we'll see. Are you taking the over or under on 85?

[Craig Horbeck]

On 85. That feels really low. I'll take the over on 85.

[Matt Bellany]

It does. I know. I. I think you're going to win this one, but we'll see. I just. I get. I'm getting some bad vibes.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah. We're going to look back on this movie as, like, just the last gasp of the Star wars streaming era, unfortunately.

[Matt Bellany]

Although next summer, they've got the Ryan Gosling one. The Star Fighter movie.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yes. And that will be the beginning of, hopefully, a new era, a new hope.

[Matt Bellany]

New hope. A new hope for Star Wars. All right, today's call. She was brought to you by Holiday Inn. They kept the global icon status and upgraded pretty much everything else from refreshed rooms to dining. Done. Right, It's a new day and a whole new stay at Holiday Inn. Book today, Holiday in dot com. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Peter Hamby, producer Craig Horbeck, our editor Matt Pevik, and I want to thank you. We will see you next week.