Podcast Summary: "Superman," Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat

Episode: 'Superman,' Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat
Release Date: July 14, 2025
Host: Matthew Belloni, The Ringer
Guest: Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg

1. Introduction to the Episode

Skipping the introductory segments and advertisements, the episode dives directly into an analysis of Hollywood's current landscape, focusing primarily on the recent release of the Superman movie and its implications for major studios like Warner Brothers and Marvel.

2. Superman's Opening Weekend Performance

Timestamp: [01:06] - [07:24]

Matthew Belloni opens the discussion by evaluating the performance of the latest Superman film. The movie grossed $125 million domestically and $220 million worldwide during its opening weekend. While these numbers represent a solid start, they fell slightly below the expectations set by NRG tracking.

Key Points:

• Budget vs. Box Office: The film had a production budget of $225 million and additional marketing costs exceeding $100 million, setting a break-even point around $600 million globally.
• Studio Perception: Despite not being a blockbuster hit, Warner Brothers leadership, including CEO David Zaslav, views the release as a "hit" to boost confidence in DC's cinematic universe. Zaslav emphasized that Superman is just the first step in a bold 10-year plan, which includes upcoming releases like Supergirl, Clayface, and the HBO Max series Lanterns.
• International Performance: Approximately 48% of the box office revenue is expected to come from international markets. However, Superman did not perform as strongly overseas, particularly in key regions like Korea and China.

Notable Quote:

• David Zaslav to the New York Times: "Superman is just the first step. Over the next year alone, DC Studios will introduce the film Supergirl and Clayface in theaters and the series Lanterns on HBO Max." ([04:20])

3. Warner Brothers' Leadership and Studio Health

Timestamp: [07:24] - [14:09]

Belloni and guest Lucas Shaw delve into the broader implications of Superman's performance on Warner Brothers' leadership. They discuss the stability of executives like David Zaslav, CEO Mike DeLuca, and Pam Abdy, as well as DC figures Peter Safran and James Gunn.

Key Points:

• Five-Movie Streak: Warner Brothers has achieved five consecutive successful releases, including titles like Minecraft and Sinners. However, certain successes predate the current leadership, adding complexity to attributing this streak solely to executives Mike and Pam.
• Potential Leadership Shifts: There is speculation about Peter Safran potentially stepping into higher roles within the company if upcoming films underperform. However, current statements from Zaslav suggest that Mike and Pam remain secure in their positions.
• Comparison with Other Studios: The discussion highlights Warner Brothers' relative stability compared to other major studios like Disney, Sony, and Paramount, which are experiencing varying degrees of success and challenges.

Notable Quote:

• Lucas Shaw: "If this movie were a turd, then the perception about it would be very negative. But you have a movie similar to F1 where it's a solid popcorn movie and the numbers are also pretty good. And so it's a win. Right. It's not a home run, but it's a double." ([07:56])

4. DC vs. Marvel Cinematic Universes

Timestamp: [14:09] - [22:49]

The conversation shifts to a comparative analysis of DC and Marvel's cinematic endeavors. Belloni and Shaw assess the current state of both franchises, touching upon recent releases and future prospects.

Key Points:

• Marvel's Struggles: Despite occasional successes like Deadpool and Spider-Man, Marvel has seen a decline in average box office performances. Recent releases like Fantastic Four are underperforming relative to Marvel's historical standards.
• DC's Upward Trajectory: Conversely, DC is perceived to be on an upward trend with Superman providing a solid foundation for future projects. Leadership under James Gunn is credited with revitalizing DC's cinematic offerings.
• Future Projections: Both hosts ponder the long-term trajectories of Marvel and DC. While Marvel's Kevin Feige remains a stable figure, DC's growing universe under new leadership suggests a potential shift in the balance of power within the superhero genre.

Notable Quotes:

• Matt Belloni: "Marvel Universe... he hasn't had an answer for the post endgame strategy at Marvel. The whole flood the zone with Disney shows didn't work." ([14:34])
• Lucas Shaw: "I would bet on Marvel just because there's so much been so much more stability at Disney than DC." ([22:38])

5. Performance of Other Studios: Sony and Paramount

Timestamp: [17:42] - [19:59]

The discussion broadens to include the performance and strategies of other major studios such as Sony and Paramount.

Key Points:

• Sony's Challenges: Under Tom Rothman's leadership, Sony is experiencing a downturn with recent releases underperforming. The studio relies heavily on occasional big franchises like Spider-Man, but there's uncertainty about sustaining momentum.
• Paramount's Position: Similar to Sony, Paramount is struggling to secure blockbuster successes. Speculation arises about potential mergers or acquisitions to bolster their IP portfolio.
• Universal's Resilience: In contrast, Universal maintains a relatively stable position with upcoming releases like Jurassic expected to drive future success.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Belloni: "Can Sony be the studio that has $100 million grocers and then every three or four years they have a Spider-Man? Is that a business or does Sony need to go out and merge with Warner Brothers and, you know, to bring some franchise material?" ([18:34])

6. AMC Theaters and Stock Performance

Timestamp: [24:04] - [27:49]

The conversation takes an unexpected turn towards the financial performance of AMC Theaters, prompted by a recent stock upgrade by Wedbush Securities.

Key Points:

• Stock Upgrade: AMC received a significant upgrade with a price target increase from $3 to $4, resulting in a 10% stock jump. However, Belloni predicts this rise to be short-lived due to a lack of forthcoming blockbuster releases.
• Box Office Forecast: The next few months lack major releases that could sustain AMC's stock performance. Upcoming titles like Fantastic Four and Tron Ares are not expected to deliver the necessary box office returns to justify the stock's current valuation.
• Analyst Limitations: Belloni criticizes analysts for focusing on macro numbers without adequately assessing the quality and potential performance of individual film releases.

Notable Quotes:

• Matt Belloni: "Oh, there's more movies coming out. So AMC is going to do better. But they don't look at like the investment behind a lot of these movies and the fact that there aren't a lot of big budget, full marketing campaign movies left for the rest of this year." ([26:02])
• Lucas Shaw: "I want to know if you think this is the... like three, four years from now, like, Feige is still there, Marvel's on its way back up DC, the new universe has worked, and it's cooking. Or it's the complete opposite, and the superhero era is basically over." ([21:40])

7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Timestamp: [27:48] - [27:49]

Matthew Belloni wraps up the episode with closing remarks, thanking his guest Lucas Shaw and acknowledging other contributors. He reiterates the analysis and predictions made throughout the discussion, emphasizing the evolving dynamics within Hollywood's major studios.

Overall Insights:

• Warner Brothers and DC are currently in a relatively strong position, leveraging the success of Superman to build a more cohesive and promising cinematic universe.

• Marvel faces challenges in maintaining its dominance, with declining average grosses and fewer standout hits compared to its peak years.

• Other major studios like Sony and Paramount struggle to find their footing, highlighting the competitive and volatile nature of the film industry.

• Financial markets closely monitor box office performances, as seen with AMC Theaters' stock movements, though industry predictions suggest volatility ahead.

Final Notable Quote:

• Matt Belloni: "We are back with the call sheet. Craig, had you met Adam Aaron before I introduced you at the Superman premiere?" ([23:38])

This comprehensive analysis provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the current state of major studios in Hollywood, the ongoing rivalry between DC and Marvel, and the financial implications tied to box office performances.