'Superman,' Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Superman," Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat

Episode: 'Superman,' Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat
Release Date: July 14, 2025
Host: Matthew Belloni, The Ringer
Guest: Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg

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1. Introduction to the Episode

Skipping the introductory segments and advertisements, the episode dives directly into an analysis of Hollywood's current landscape, focusing primarily on the recent release of the Superman movie and its implications for major studios like Warner Brothers and Marvel.

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2. Superman's Opening Weekend Performance

Timestamp: [01:06] - [07:24]

Matthew Belloni opens the discussion by evaluating the performance of the latest Superman film. The movie grossed $125 million domestically and $220 million worldwide during its opening weekend. While these numbers represent a solid start, they fell slightly below the expectations set by NRG tracking.

Key Points:

• Budget vs. Box Office: The film had a production budget of $225 million and additional marketing costs exceeding $100 million, setting a break-even point around $600 million globally.
• Studio Perception: Despite not being a blockbuster hit, Warner Brothers leadership, including CEO David Zaslav, views the release as a "hit" to boost confidence in DC's cinematic universe. Zaslav emphasized that Superman is just the first step in a bold 10-year plan, which includes upcoming releases like Supergirl, Clayface, and the HBO Max series Lanterns.
• International Performance: Approximately 48% of the box office revenue is expected to come from international markets. However, Superman did not perform as strongly overseas, particularly in key regions like Korea and China.

Notable Quote:

• David Zaslav to the New York Times: "Superman is just the first step. Over the next year alone, DC Studios will introduce the film Supergirl and Clayface in theaters and the series Lanterns on HBO Max." ([04:20])

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3. Warner Brothers' Leadership and Studio Health

Timestamp: [07:24] - [14:09]

Belloni and guest Lucas Shaw delve into the broader implications of Superman's performance on Warner Brothers' leadership. They discuss the stability of executives like David Zaslav, CEO Mike DeLuca, and Pam Abdy, as well as DC figures Peter Safran and James Gunn.

Key Points:

• Five-Movie Streak: Warner Brothers has achieved five consecutive successful releases, including titles like Minecraft and Sinners. However, certain successes predate the current leadership, adding complexity to attributing this streak solely to executives Mike and Pam.
• Potential Leadership Shifts: There is speculation about Peter Safran potentially stepping into higher roles within the company if upcoming films underperform. However, current statements from Zaslav suggest that Mike and Pam remain secure in their positions.
• Comparison with Other Studios: The discussion highlights Warner Brothers' relative stability compared to other major studios like Disney, Sony, and Paramount, which are experiencing varying degrees of success and challenges.

Notable Quote:

• Lucas Shaw: "If this movie were a turd, then the perception about it would be very negative. But you have a movie similar to F1 where it's a solid popcorn movie and the numbers are also pretty good. And so it's a win. Right. It's not a home run, but it's a double." ([07:56])

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4. DC vs. Marvel Cinematic Universes

Timestamp: [14:09] - [22:49]

The conversation shifts to a comparative analysis of DC and Marvel's cinematic endeavors. Belloni and Shaw assess the current state of both franchises, touching upon recent releases and future prospects.

Key Points:

• Marvel's Struggles: Despite occasional successes like Deadpool and Spider-Man, Marvel has seen a decline in average box office performances. Recent releases like Fantastic Four are underperforming relative to Marvel's historical standards.
• DC's Upward Trajectory: Conversely, DC is perceived to be on an upward trend with Superman providing a solid foundation for future projects. Leadership under James Gunn is credited with revitalizing DC's cinematic offerings.
• Future Projections: Both hosts ponder the long-term trajectories of Marvel and DC. While Marvel's Kevin Feige remains a stable figure, DC's growing universe under new leadership suggests a potential shift in the balance of power within the superhero genre.

Notable Quotes:

• Matt Belloni: "Marvel Universe... he hasn't had an answer for the post endgame strategy at Marvel. The whole flood the zone with Disney shows didn't work." ([14:34])
• Lucas Shaw: "I would bet on Marvel just because there's so much been so much more stability at Disney than DC." ([22:38])

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5. Performance of Other Studios: Sony and Paramount

Timestamp: [17:42] - [19:59]

The discussion broadens to include the performance and strategies of other major studios such as Sony and Paramount.

Key Points:

• Sony's Challenges: Under Tom Rothman's leadership, Sony is experiencing a downturn with recent releases underperforming. The studio relies heavily on occasional big franchises like Spider-Man, but there's uncertainty about sustaining momentum.
• Paramount's Position: Similar to Sony, Paramount is struggling to secure blockbuster successes. Speculation arises about potential mergers or acquisitions to bolster their IP portfolio.
• Universal's Resilience: In contrast, Universal maintains a relatively stable position with upcoming releases like Jurassic expected to drive future success.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Belloni: "Can Sony be the studio that has $100 million grocers and then every three or four years they have a Spider-Man? Is that a business or does Sony need to go out and merge with Warner Brothers and, you know, to bring some franchise material?" ([18:34])

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6. AMC Theaters and Stock Performance

Timestamp: [24:04] - [27:49]

The conversation takes an unexpected turn towards the financial performance of AMC Theaters, prompted by a recent stock upgrade by Wedbush Securities.

Key Points:

• Stock Upgrade: AMC received a significant upgrade with a price target increase from $3 to $4, resulting in a 10% stock jump. However, Belloni predicts this rise to be short-lived due to a lack of forthcoming blockbuster releases.
• Box Office Forecast: The next few months lack major releases that could sustain AMC's stock performance. Upcoming titles like Fantastic Four and Tron Ares are not expected to deliver the necessary box office returns to justify the stock's current valuation.
• Analyst Limitations: Belloni criticizes analysts for focusing on macro numbers without adequately assessing the quality and potential performance of individual film releases.

Notable Quotes:

• Matt Belloni: "Oh, there's more movies coming out. So AMC is going to do better. But they don't look at like the investment behind a lot of these movies and the fact that there aren't a lot of big budget, full marketing campaign movies left for the rest of this year." ([26:02])
• Lucas Shaw: "I want to know if you think this is the... like three, four years from now, like, Feige is still there, Marvel's on its way back up DC, the new universe has worked, and it's cooking. Or it's the complete opposite, and the superhero era is basically over." ([21:40])

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7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Timestamp: [27:48] - [27:49]

Matthew Belloni wraps up the episode with closing remarks, thanking his guest Lucas Shaw and acknowledging other contributors. He reiterates the analysis and predictions made throughout the discussion, emphasizing the evolving dynamics within Hollywood's major studios.

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Overall Insights:

• Warner Brothers and DC are currently in a relatively strong position, leveraging the success of Superman to build a more cohesive and promising cinematic universe.

• Marvel faces challenges in maintaining its dominance, with declining average grosses and fewer standout hits compared to its peak years.

• Other major studios like Sony and Paramount struggle to find their footing, highlighting the competitive and volatile nature of the film industry.

• Financial markets closely monitor box office performances, as seen with AMC Theaters' stock movements, though industry predictions suggest volatility ahead.

Final Notable Quote:

• Matt Belloni: "We are back with the call sheet. Craig, had you met Adam Aaron before I introduced you at the Superman premiere?" ([23:38])

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This comprehensive analysis provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the current state of major studios in Hollywood, the ongoing rivalry between DC and Marvel, and the financial implications tied to box office performances.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters, who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member today.

[Ben Mankiewicz]

Hi, I'm Ben Mankiewicz and on this season of the Plot Thickens we're going behind the scenes on a film whose history it's a little close to home. Cleopatra was my Uncle Joe's biggest gamble and his greatest failure. It had everything you could want in a Hollywood blockbuster, but the budget and the on set love affair both went off the rails, creating a story even more dramatic than Cleopatra herself. The plot Thickens. Cleopatra available now wherever you get your podcasts. Visit tcm.com podcast to learn more.

[Matt Bellany]

It is Monday, July 14th. Most people look at the opening weekend of a big movie like Superman and ask did it do okay? How were the numbers at the town? We look at the weekend numbers 125 million domestic, 220 million worldwide. A pretty good start, though a little below the NRG tracking. We look at him as a heat check for the studio and his executives, the Warner Brothers leadership, our guy David Zaslav, the CEO Mike DeLuca, Pam Abdy who run the film studio, Peter Safran and James Gunn at dc. They all sent out flowery statements yesterday heralding Superman as a new day at dc. There's still a long way to profitability for a movie that cost $225 million to make and another hundred or so to market. That's okay. They could take the W for a movie that did resonate with fans and even the critics. And as we know, it was crucial that Superman work because the entire DC reboot is built around this restart, zaslav said, quote, superman is just the first step. Over the next year alone, DC Studios will introduce the film Supergirl and Clayface in theaters and the series Lanterns on HBO Max. All part of a bold 10 year plan. Zaslav also talked to the New York Times. A hell of a run, he said of the recent five movie streak at Warner's. We're Organized and we're on the attack. Okay, lots to digest there, both for Warner Brothers and elsewhere around town. So we've got Lucas Shaw here today. We're going to dive into the Warner situation and do a little studio head heat check. It's Superman, the super numbers question mark and the studio executive check in from the ringer and puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. All right. We are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

Great to be here. How you doing?

[Matt Bellany]

I'm doing okay. You're not worried about the Dodgers at the All Star break? No, no.

[Lucas Shaw]

I mean, I, I'm hysterical in my text messages with friends, but I have the perspective to know that right now does not matter.

[Matt Bellany]

Seven in a row losses doesn't concern you.

[Lucas Shaw]

They won the last two. They gotta get healthy. They'll figure it out. I mean, I, if, if the playoffs started tomorrow, I'd be super nervous, but there's a lot of. A lot of season left. That's true.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, speaking of the playing field, we're going to talk a little bit about.

[Lucas Shaw]

I thought you were going to go speaking of panic meters.

[Matt Bellany]

You know panic meters? Yeah. I don't know. That's the thing right now. It's like, I feel like at all of the movie studios, people are kind of safe right now. Like, there was the Mike and Pam hysteria of March and April. What a time. We all were in on it and there was real hysteria.

[Lucas Shaw]

But now we have David Zaslav giving statements about how great everything is.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, it's unbelievable. Who told him it was a good idea to call the New York Times and brag about how we're on the offense now we're attack mode. We're doing it all, like, just sit on your hands. Do not call the New York Times when you have a hit movie.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, also, why are you the person speaking? This should be the moment for your executives to be able to say, we did it great.

[Matt Bellany]

Or at least, like, talk about the strategy. Don't, like, cheerlead from, you know, the C suite. It's unbelievable, the press strategy. And he's now gone through multiple press people. So it's him. It's not his people. He wants to do this stuff. So I'm going to let you be the but actually guy because I know you love that.

[Lucas Shaw]

I thought you wanted to be the but actually guy.

[Matt Bellany]

No, I'm going to let you do it. I know, I know you, like, you.

[Lucas Shaw]

Want me to be the bad guy.

[Matt Bellany]

Got it. No, no, no. I'm just going to go through the numbers here. Man of steel 117 million in 2013. So with inflation, that would be 161 million opening in $2025. So this weekend, with the 125 million opening significantly lower than man of steel 12 years ago, the franchise re newsletter estimates a 2.9 multiple for domestic, meaning they estimate it will be almost three times multiple with a 48% contribution from international. So that would be a little less than 600 million worldwide for this movie cost. 225 that we are told marketing. 100125 probably. So that puts the break even for this movie in the high fives right around 600 million. So is this movie the hit that David Zaslav with his megaphone is talking about?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, it's a hit. It's just not like a. A smash. That firmly establishes the new DC strategy works. Everyone is super excited. This is the future of the company. And you knew that, that Warner Brothers and D.C. were trying to to manage this before the release, right? Because I think perception was. And you and I talked about this other people that it needed to get to like 800 million be seen as a big hit, right?

[Matt Bellany]

Not according to James Gunn. He threw water on the 700 million number.

[Lucas Shaw]

That was a direct effort to manage it. Right. Previous Superman movies have all lived in sort of like 600 to 800 million range. They've all done fine. They're not failures, but they're also not huge hits. And this is going to live in that zone that all previous Superman movies have lived, right?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, the international number kills them. And we knew Superman not a huge draw overseas. The 48% number that the Franchise Re newsletter has, I think that's generous. I think this is going to be a bigger US hit than it is overseas. And we're already seeing the soft numbers there.

[Lucas Shaw]

I mean, it got beat by Jurassic World in Korea, in China, and a bunch of Asia was particularly soft, I think.

[Matt Bellany]

And there's a Fantastic Four movie coming in two weeks that's going to trounce it overseas. But the perception is largely trans drawn by the US numbers. And that's where I think this is a similar conversation to the F1 conversation. If you look at the F1 numbers, it's going to cross 400 worldwide in a couple days. But that movie cost 250 generously. It's not going to be profitable in theaters. But perception wise, for Apple, it said, okay, we can open a movie. We can play the big boy game and have a summer blockbuster. That people liked and got good reviews and is not embarrassing and it'll have value on the service.

[Lucas Shaw]

Do you think that perception wise, this is a win for Warner Brothers in D.C. exactly.

[Matt Bellany]

That's what I'm saying. This is a perception win that they are going to dine out on and you know, try to yada yada into a financial win and maybe it'll have legs, maybe it'll go all get up to 6, 7, 8, hundred. We'll see. But the perception win is what matters and that's where they can start to greenlight other DC movies. That's what. That's the whole thing. They need this movie to work so they could do a universe well.

[Lucas Shaw]

And it helps that people think the movie is pretty good.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, exactly right.

[Lucas Shaw]

If this movie were a turd, then the perception about it would be very negative. But you have a movie similar to F1 where it's a solid popcorn movie and the numbers are also pretty good. And so it's. It's a win. Right. It's not a home run, but it's a double. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Not embarrassing that. That is the standard.

[Lucas Shaw]

And especially considering the recent track record for Warner Brothers, they've just. It sort of continues this momentum that they've had.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, let's talk about the momentum because this is, by the assessment of the New York Times, five in a row for them.

[Lucas Shaw]

If you're giving them F1, we're giving.

[Matt Bellany]

Them F1 only be, you know, they don't. They had nothing to do with the making of that movie. And you know, we're giving them Minecraft, which was in development before Mike for the studio.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's the fifth win in a row for the studio.

[Matt Bellany]

But we're talking about. Let's talk about the leadership there. Zaslav and Mike and Pam and the DC guys. Peter Safran, James Gunn, if you're talking.

[Lucas Shaw]

About Mike and Pam, their main movie in that streak that they've released is Sinners. But that was sort of the biggest win of all of those released, other than maybe Minecraft. Minecraft's obviously a bigger win, but I think people expected it to do pretty well. The success of Sinners was more surprising. Final Destination was, you know, they successfully kind of rebooted a horror franchise. Very low stakes. Well, that was new Line and Superman is. They've cut off dc. So Superman means that Peter Safran and James Gunn start with a. A victory and Sinners means that Mike and Pam start with a victory.

[Matt Bellany]

Right, True. But what I'm saying is the five in A row thing has some caveats because there are movies that predated them. There's a new line horror franchise. There is the Minecraft thing that predated them, but all of these have been released by the Mike and Pam regime. So they do get credit. Just like they get the negatives for Mickey 17 and the Alto Knights, neither of which they wanted to make.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. And that they had their hands wrapped for Joker 2, which again, predated them.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Although they did claim that that was their first movie back when they thought it was going to be it.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. You can always move around which one was actually your first movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Right, Exactly. And that's why this matters, because I feel like the studio hot seat is pretty cold right now. Everyone seems is kind of safe. Disney doing okay. David Greenbaum just got in on the live action side, so he's not going anywhere. Alan Bergman is, you know, managing. They've kind of steadied the ship according to Bob Iger, even though Elio is a huge disaster for Pixar and Marvel's.

[Lucas Shaw]

Having a pretty weak year.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Well, that gets to the question of Marvel, because Fantastic Four is probably going to hit, but how big is Fantastic Four going to be? Because these Marvel movies used to be. If you grossed $400 million as a marvel movie, it was a disaster.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, that's the norm.

[Matt Bellany]

I know now. Two in a row, including one Thunderbolts. That got good reviews and the fans seem to like. And it still got to about $400 million.

[Lucas Shaw]

It didn't even get there. It's at 390, I think.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. So what is the ceiling for Marvel now?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, the ceiling is still high. It just depends on the property. Right. Like Spider Man. Well, the Spider man movies.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. Take Spider man out of it. We haven't had a proper Spider man movie since 2021. And yes, it did enormous $2 billion numbers, but they like endgamed it. They had all the other spider men in it and it was the culmination of a trilogy and it became a phenomenon. Like, I'm not saying Spider man is in peril.

[Lucas Shaw]

Deadpool last year was huge. There are certain movies that do break through. Your point is correct. That and I had like a fun chart in my newsletter yesterday about this showing the average gross of Marvel movies sort of per era. And this is far and away the worst. And that's factoring in Deadpool and Spider Man. Right? The average or the median.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. And the fact that there are fewer movies now. Yeah. I mean, if you look at it after Fantastic Four, there's nothing until Spider man next summer. And that's not even a Marvel Disney release. There's nothing until Avengers doomsday at the end of 2026.

[Craig Horbace]

Also, everything is ending. It's like, it's the final. They're squeezing as much as they can out of Spider Man. They squeeze as much as they could out of Deadpool, and those are the only two things that have been successful, but those are ending. Everything that's trying to begin is struggling.

[Matt Bellany]

Spiderman's not ending. Tom Holland will be doing this for a while.

[Craig Horbace]

Do you think Tom Holland's going to do 5, 6, 7, Spider Mansion?

[Matt Bellany]

You know, I don't know the answer, but I would guess he would. Why wouldn't he? I don't know.

[Craig Horbace]

I. There seems to be kind of a natural limit where Hemsworth and Evans, and it's around three, four, five movies even, like James Bond before. You want to move on and do other things.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, but Holland tried to do other stuff, and it didn't work.

[Craig Horbace]

He's doing the Odyssey. If that works.

[Matt Bellany]

I know if the Odyssey works, he could become a big star again and, like, try to do other stuff. But why would you give it up? Why would you give it up?

[Craig Horbace]

All right, outside of Holland, then it just feels like Marvel is struggling to launch anything new. And I don't know what these Avengers are going to be. How many more of the old stars are they going to have to force back into the Avengers to make that movie work?

[Matt Bellany]

A lot. And Downey is back in the new character.

[Lucas Shaw]

But what is the number that Fantastic Four has to get to to be considered a big success for Disney and Marvel again?

[Matt Bellany]

It's in the Superman category. I'd say between six and seven.

[Lucas Shaw]

You think if it gets to six, that's a big success?

[Matt Bellany]

Not a big success, but I think it's not embarrassing. Under 6 is embarrassing for a movie that has been this hyped and they put this much into it. Now, keep in mind, it's the first in a series of Marvel movies, so those always grow lower than the sequels usually. And, you know, it's not like this has been done before Fantastic Four, so it's not exactly new. The marketing, I think, has been good. It does feel different. But I'd say above six is. Is not embarrassing.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, above six is not embarrassing, but I think you gotta get seven or eight for it to be a. A big hit.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And then it's like, well, what are we doing? Like, so is Kevin Feige on the hot seat?

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't think so. I don't think he gets blamed if they've.

[Matt Bellany]

He doesn't. He basically has not had an answer for the post endgame strategy at Marvel. The whole flood the zone with Disney shows didn't work. The Captain America do another one. But with Anthony Mackie, that didn't work. The Jonathan Majors thing blew up in his face.

[Lucas Shaw]

Not really his fault.

[Matt Bellany]

Not his fault, but it did blow up in his face. They haven't had a franchise starting.

[Lucas Shaw]

Marvel Universe. You and these Disney subsidiaries. You love coming after the heads.

[Matt Bellany]

Do I? I don't know. Who else am I going after? Oh, Kevin Kennedy. Oh, yeah. Well, that's. That's another. That's a whole separate thing. But our. But is. Is Kevin Feige gonna lose his mojo?

[Lucas Shaw]

Marvel has definitely lost a little bit of its mojo. Just that there's not the same level of excitement for it all. And we can debate is that they. They made too many. You throw in the TV and their people just. It was overexposed. That.

[Matt Bellany]

That.

[Lucas Shaw]

Is that naturally cyclical where it just. It was so popular for so long and it had to ebb a little bit, I guess. I hear you on. He has not come up with an answer, but I don't think that means that he's on the hot seat in any way.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, what a change of events. If DC is all of a sudden back and has a thriving cinematic universe.

[Lucas Shaw]

Marvel. Let's take a second. If Superman hits 650 and Fantastic Four hits 600, we're suddenly going to say DC is the one that's thriving and Marvel is the one that's struggling.

[Matt Bellany]

I'm just saying, relative to where they were. Trajectory. Trajectory.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right.

[Matt Bellany]

If that happens, it's sort of amazing that Disney handed James Gunn to DC. I mean, if we go back to 2018, Alan Horn cutting ties with James Gunn on Guardians of the Galaxy 3 over his bad tweets. What did Gunn do? He was desperate for a job. He went. He started talking to dc. They hired him for Suicide Squad. Now, Alan Horn eventually reneged on that, brought him back to do Guardians 3, but that relationship was pretty much over. And after Guardians 3, Gunn went over to DC and is now doing his thing over there. So you could argue that the success of DC is thanks to Disney, which is doubly ironic because Alan Horn now consults for Warner Brothers Discovery.

[Lucas Shaw]

There's at some point gonna be a very fun story on Alan Horn's role in the movie business over the last 40 years.

[Matt Bellany]

He's still helping them.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Do you think that the success of Superman causes any tension between the divisions at Warner Brothers?

[Matt Bellany]

You mean is Peter Safran all of a sudden lobbying for Mike and Pam's job? That's basically what you're saying, sort of.

[Lucas Shaw]

Was he not a little bit before?

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know if you actually reported this. I did not. I believe that he has made it known that he has broader experience than just superhero movies and could step in when they were looking to replace him. I don't think Zaslav called him and said, you know, get your, get your running shoes on cause you're about to move upstairs.

[Lucas Shaw]

But he definitely got mentioned in some of those reports as a potential replacement setting. Paramount taking Paramount out because it's an unusual situation. Does that mean that we're grading all four other sort of traditional studio hot seats as ice cold?

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know. The Sony situation is really like a conundrum to me because Tom Rothman just re upped. He's in his 70s and you know, they seem to really like his leadership there.

[Lucas Shaw]

Very stable.

[Craig Horbace]

Is it, though?

[Matt Bellany]

But then you look at their summer and like, how long can Sony subsist on movies like Karate Kid legends that gross $100 million?

[Lucas Shaw]

Their performance is down with Paramount. I mean, you look at the studio rankings, Disney and Warner Brothers are having the two best years. Universal is third, but this is sort of an off year for them. They're going to have a huge year.

[Matt Bellany]

Next year and they got a Jurassic.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's fine. And then you've got Paramount and Sony that are way below everybody else and.

[Matt Bellany]

That'S not getting better. That's my point. It's like, yes, Universal may have a down year, but we know what they have coming and it's exciting.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right? And their down year is still much better than what Paramount and Sony do.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Can Sony be the studio that has $100 million grocers and then every three or four years they have a spider man. Is that a business or does Sony need to go out and merge with Warner Brothers and you know, to bring some franchise material? Because Tom did a good job of like scraping the bottom of the barrel of what they have there and did Ghostbusters and they did a Garfield movie, picked up that package. And they are always in the market for picking up these packages that go to the market, but they're not going to get all those. Tarantino imploded. That movie's not happening.

[Lucas Shaw]

Bond is off the table.

[Matt Bellany]

Bond is off the table. You know, he's talking about four Beatles movies that are coming out in three years at CinemaCon.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Well, I guess he has this contract to plan for his post Rothman future.

[Matt Bellany]

Or they're gonna buy something or merge something. I mean, that. It just feels like they need some kind of infusion of ip.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but the only things to buy are Lionsgate, which I don't think would meaningfully move the needle for them.

[Matt Bellany]

No, those franchises aren't real.

[Lucas Shaw]

Or Warner Brothers, which is. You know, they went after Paramount. Yeah, they did.

[Matt Bellany]

So, you know, they know they need this. They should do a Wheel of Fortune movie.

[Lucas Shaw]

Use leverage all the game shows in there.

[Matt Bellany]

Do a game show cinematic universe.

[Lucas Shaw]

Aren't they Jeopardy, too?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, they are Jeopardy. Those are, like, the biggest franchises in America.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, they make so much money.

[Matt Bellany]

I know that it's for, like, the over 50, over 60 set. Like, just create a story. Do a Slumdog Millionaire, but with Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy. Free ideas here on the town. All right, let's. So we believe that there are not any firings coming.

[Craig Horbace]

Can I ask you guys a question?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Craig Horbace]

I want to go back to Warner Brothers. So they've had four, maybe five great movies this year. Strong hits. Does this mean that Mike and Pam are now one battle after another? Proof.

[Lucas Shaw]

Which is the Paul Thomas Anderson movie. For those that don't, yes.

[Matt Bellany]

That is a $150 million art house movie with Leo DiCaprio.

[Craig Horbace]

If that movie makes $45 million in theaters, are they fine total? Sure.

[Lucas Shaw]

If it's 45 million total, I don't think they're safe. If it's a $45 million opening, I think they're safe.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

If it's like a true catastrophe, like the biggest bomb of the year, nobody's safe after the biggest bomb of the year. But sparing that, I think they've bought themselves plenty of time or as much time as. As they're going to want for the foreseeable future.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Although Brooks at the Times asked Zaslav whether Mike and Pam were safe, and he basically didn't say that they were not getting fired. He just said they're doing a great job. So he left himself a little wiggle room there. If it grosses $45 million globally, I think Peter Safran starts to look at Mike and Pam's parking spots and measure up his own Tesla.

[Craig Horbace]

Do you guys think it's more than likely that in 2029, DC and Marvel have figured it out and they're kind of back at their peak and the slump is over? Or in 2029, it's a massive 2029.

[Matt Bellany]

Craig, are you really asking us about 2029?

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Craig Horbace]

Well, I want to know if you think this is the.

[Matt Bellany]

You mean when there are three studios and, you know, there's. There's, like, half as many movies are made?

[Craig Horbace]

Okay, fine.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know.

[Lucas Shaw]

Warner Brothers is owned by Microsoft.

[Craig Horbace]

All I'm saying is, is do you think, like, three, four years from now, like, Feige is still there, Marvel's on its way back up dc, the new universe has worked, and it's cooking. Or it's the complete opposite, and the superhero era is basically over.

[Matt Bellany]

You want that. I know you want that.

[Craig Horbace]

Of course I do. Of course I do.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, I don't think the superhero movie is. The superhero movie era is over because they're commissioning superhero movies right now that'll come out in that period, so it's definitely not over.

[Matt Bellany]

Matt Reeves will take at least three or four years to do another Batman movie, even though they have a October 2027 release date for Batman 2.

[Lucas Shaw]

But I do think it's an interesting question, who is more. And I can't predict, four years into the future, who would you bet on.

[Craig Horbace]

Right now, DC or Marvel?

[Lucas Shaw]

I would bet on Marvel just because there's so much. Been so much more stability at Disney than dc.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I agree. And likely there will be a new owner or some kind of change.

[Lucas Shaw]

There will be a new CEO at Disney and a new owner potentially at Warner Brothers, but I think the latter is more likely to be destabilizing than changing whoever's the next CEO of Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

And who wants to be the executive that fires Kevin Feige. Right. You don't want to do that.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I think the question's more whether he would leave.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, but he has had so many opportunities to leave over the years.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. So why would he, at this point.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. And has chosen not to. And now when he's sort of down a little, you think he'd want to get it back? Or maybe he just wants to tap out and leave and do something totally different, but he's not indicated that that's what he wants. All right, so everyone's safe. Very boring. Everyone is safe right now, except for you and me.

[Lucas Shaw]

We're on the hot seat.

[Matt Bellany]

We are perpetually on the hot seat. Craig's the only real constant here. Craig is unfirable. All right, Lucas, thank you.

[Lucas Shaw]

Thanks, man.

[Matt Bellany]

We are back with the call sheet. Craig, had you met Adam Aaron before I introduced you at the Superman premiere?

[Craig Horbace]

Yes, I believe we sat close to him at the Oscars.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, that's right. We did. I introduced you there. He's my good friend, the CEO of AMC Theaters, the one time villain of the year in my newsletter. We are way past those days. We have come to an understanding yearly frenemies.

[Lucas Shaw]

You two. Yes.

[Matt Bellany]

And he was there at Superman. Very excited for the movie. He's been very excited for the more consistent release slate this summer. So excited about an analyst upgrade that happened last week. A Wedbush securities analyst put a $4 price target on the AMC stock. It is currently or was at the time at $3. So pretty significant upgrade. The stock popped by about 10% after that upgrade. The problem is, and I see this all the time with these analysts, they're so knee jerk when it comes to box office. They just, they don't know what's coming from these studios. And my prediction today is that this is going to be a short lived bump for AMC because the next two and a half months don't have any big blockbusters or at least not any obvious blockbusters. After Fantastic Four it's pretty barren until Tron Ares in October. So I just think that the AMC stock bump of the past few days is going to be short lived.

[Craig Horbace]

So now the town is officially giving investment advice.

[Matt Bellany]

No, we are not. This is not investment advice. Please do not sue me for securities fraud if you take my advice. But I just don't see it. I just don't think these analysts often are looking at the quality of the release slate. They're just looking at numbers. Oh, there's more movies coming out. So AMC is going to do better. But they don't look at like the investment behind a lot of these movies and the fact that there aren't a lot of big budget, full marketing campaign movies left for the rest of this year. You know, obviously there's some big ones like Avatar and there's others that are coming, but I just don't see the next three months being something that justifies AMC theaters being given an upgrade.

[Craig Horbace]

But aren't these analysts, their job is to forecast the market. How are they not able to look at the next few months of movies and determine whether or not it's going to be a strong stretch or not? This is their entire job.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, but they're looking at macro numbers. They're looking at the number of release date. They're looking at what these investor relations people at the studios tell them, oh, we have a robust slate of movies coming. They don't tell them that the movie is troubled or that the star has refused to do publicity or that there's, you know, not. They can't expect a 3 to $400 million gross out of a horror movie like Weapons or Freaky Friday or Naked Gun or any of these movies that are coming in the next couple months that have been positioned as blockbusters but aren't going to do huge numbers. They'll be fine, they'll be profitable, but it's not going to be huge. They just look at the macro number and they're seeing Avatar coming and they're like, oh, okay, annual box office will probably be better this year because of Avatar, but I think there's other weaknesses that they're not seeing is my point.

[Craig Horbace]

So short. Amc.

[Matt Bellany]

No, do not do anything. I am saying this is just for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice. And you know what? Maybe when next year comes around and there's the Odyssey and there's a Spielberg movie and there's all sorts of other, you know, Avengers, Doomsday and things like that. Batman, Spider Man. Batman's 27, but Spider man is next year.

[Craig Horbace]

Oh, God, is it 27?

[Lucas Shaw]

Wow.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. He. Matt Reeves just turned in the script. Yeah. They're not even shooting till the beginning of the year, I don't think. Yeah. So, you know, I'm not saying that the theater sector is screwed, although there are those out there that say it is. I am just saying that this recent upgrade may be a little short lived.

[Lucas Shaw]

That's all I'm saying.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Greg Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.