Podcast Summary: "The 10 Worst Things to Happen to Hollywood Since 2010"

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Date: August 18, 2025
Host: Matthew Belloni
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)
Producer/Contributor: Craig Horlbeck

Episode Overview

In this episode, Matthew Belloni and guest Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg) rank and discuss the ten most significant disasters to befall Hollywood since 2010—the streaming era. Instead of focusing on short-term flops or failed films and celebrities, they examine industry-altering events and decisions that fundamentally damaged the Hollywood business model, marking a turbulent period characterized by technological disruption, failed corporate strategies, and shifts in content consumption.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Defining "Disaster": Scope and Criteria

• This is not about movie bombs, failed stars, or isolated bad decisions.
• The focus: "the 10 most meaningful disasters of the past 15 years" (04:01).
• “Hollywood went from the apex of influence and financial power to where it is today.”—Matthew Belloni (03:42)

2. Licensing Decisions Handing the Keys to Netflix

a. Breaking Bad’s Netflix Effect (04:46–06:21)

• Lucas's #1 Disaster: The “Breaking Bad phenomenon on Netflix”—the show’s resurgence on Netflix and how its success led studios/network execs to license even their best content to Netflix.
• "The success of [Breaking Bad] helped convince a lot of other studios and networks to keep licensing... Netflix just got all the popular shows, including contemporary popular shows, from everyone else and started to pull people away from the television business."—Lucas Shaw (05:24)
• Short-term revenue blinded traditional companies to the long-term danger, making Netflix the dominant disruptor.

b. Disney Licensing Marvel Movies to Netflix (06:21–08:13)

• Belloni’s disaster pick: Disney’s 2013 licensing deal handing Marvel movies to Netflix. Marked “a tipping point, but a sign of the lack of vision about the future”—Matthew Belloni (06:34)
• These decisions stunted studios' readiness for the streaming wars and diluted their own brands.

3. Corporate Mergers Gone Awry

a. AT&T Buys Time Warner (08:13–11:47)

• $85 billion acquisition seen as a disaster from the start; telecoms failed to strategically grow HBO as a digital brand, instead saddling it with debt and poorly aligned priorities.
• "It was very clear... the idea of melding a telecom with premium content, disaster from the start."—Matthew Belloni (08:27)
• If HBO had stayed independent, it could have become a legitimate Netflix competitor; now it’s a legacy of failed mergers and constant ownership changes.

b. Counterfactual: Time Warner Declines Fox Bid (09:44–11:47)

• Lucas argues turning down Rupert Murdoch’s Fox bid was perhaps an even bigger mistake, as Fox may have created a media business real enough to challenge Netflix.
• "Had Time Warner instead done the Fox deal, I would imagine that Rupert Murdoch... would have done a much better job with integrating that company."—Lucas Shaw (10:01)

4. Digital “MCNs” and Fumbling the YouTube Revolution

Disney’s Acquisition of Maker Studios (12:12–14:21)

• Disney bought Maker Studios (multi-channel network) for up to $900 million, chasing YouTube cachet but not IP ownership. Failure led Hollywood to “go back to basically ignoring YouTube for the next five years”—Lucas Shaw (13:54)
• The industry missed an opportunity to leverage YouTube as an incubator for new IP and underserved demographics.

5. Quibi's Failure and Its Broader Impact (14:21–17:31)

• Belloni: “The failure of Quibi spooked the industry from trying short-form, mobile-first, youth-skewing content.” (14:44)
• Lucas: “The failure of Quibi was a good thing... every company that has tried to compete with YouTube-slash-Google has totally failed.” (15:24)
• Quibi revealed there’s “no Hollywood shortcut” to building the next YouTube; the value is in user-generated content, not expensive, short-form Hollywood shows.
• Sets the context for skepticism and hesitancy toward future short-form video startups.

6. The Death of Original IP in Film—John Carter Moment (18:36–19:38)

• Lucas pinpoints Disney’s John Carter flop as the symbolic end of big-budget original risk-taking—a turning point toward “only going with sort of IP and bankable stuff.”
• "If I had to pick a moment where they just basically gave up on originality altogether, it was [after John Carter]."—Lucas Shaw (19:10)
• Resulted in the Hollywood mentality of “play the hits,” prioritizing sequels, reboots, and brand extensions.

7. Rising Sports Rights—NFL 2021 Mega-Deal (21:48–25:12)

• Belloni lists the 2021 NFL broadcast deal as a disaster for Hollywood: “They are so expensive that... [networks] really can't become profitable with these sports rights.” (22:09)
• These mammoth contracts drain resources from narrative content and force entertainment companies into a corner, chasing live sports as the last remaining linear TV juggernaut, while also introducing tech companies (Amazon, etc.) into core content battles.

8. Missed Moment: Failure to Build Hulu into a Unified Netflix Competitor (31:29–31:53)

• Studios could have “supercharged Hulu” after the 2008 strike; instead, they let the opportunity slip, enabling Netflix’s dominance.

9. Tax Incentives and Hollywood’s Locational Shift (26:36–27:43)

• Lucas brings up the exodus of production from California due to lack of competitive tax incentives—studios like Marvel moving to Georgia, now moving to UK. Insights into how regional incentive policies reshaped the production landscape.

10. The Pandemic’s Lasting Impact and the Hollywood Strike (27:56–30:16)

• The pandemic “accelerated trends already there, but it supercharged them”—Matthew Belloni (28:03)
• Streaming exploded, inflating content bubbles and creating unsustainable peaks (peak TV). Then came a brutal market correction (2022’s “Netflix crash”) as companies scrambled toward profitability.
• Also, both agree the 2023 Hollywood strike, while devastating, is hard to apportion blame but certainly accelerated certain declines.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Breaking Bad popped off in 11 and 12... The success of that show, I think, helped convince a lot of other studios and networks to keep licensing... Netflix just got all the popular shows, including contemporary popular shows, from everyone else and started to pull people away from the television business.”—Lucas Shaw (05:24)
• “It was very clear... the idea of melding a telecom with premium content, disaster from the start.”—Matthew Belloni (08:27)
• “Disney’s movies had been on Starz before then, and it didn’t hurt them as much. I don’t think movies move the needle as much as like just all of the new television shows being on Netflix.”—Lucas Shaw (07:06)
• “If I had to pick a moment where they just basically gave up on originality altogether, it was [after John Carter].”—Lucas Shaw (19:10)
• “They are so expensive that these linear businesses really can't become profitable with these sports rights... it doesn’t leave very much money left over to do the actual Hollywood content.” – Matthew Belloni (22:09)
• “The pandemic didn’t create the Internet and how everybody responded to the Internet... it poured fuel on the fire, accelerated things.”—Lucas Shaw (30:34)
• “What are people going to be mad that you didn’t say?... we should have mentioned the rise and sustained power of Marvel as the biggest franchise force in Hollywood as being bad for the overall business.” —Matthew Belloni (31:01)

Important Timestamps

• [05:24] – The consequences of Breaking Bad's resurgence on Netflix for the licensing model
• [08:27] – Why the AT&T–Time Warner merger was a “disaster from the start”
• [13:54] – Hollywood’s failed MCN (multi-channel network) strategy on YouTube
• [15:24] – Why Quibi was doomed by misunderstanding what drives short video success
• [19:10] – The symbolic end of original blockbusters: John Carter flops, Hollywood “plays the hits”
• [22:09] – Sports rights costs gutting profitability and creative vision at entertainment companies
• [27:43] – How tax incentives shifted industry jobs and production locales
• [28:03] – The pandemic’s acceleration of streaming and content inflation
• [30:34] – Pandemic as "fuel on the fire" but not the source of Hollywood’s core problems
• [31:01] – What listeners may feel was left out (Marvel’s dominance, Hulu’s missed opportunity)

Tone and Flow

Belloni and Shaw’s discussion is brisk, knowledgeable, and sometimes sardonic, with an eye for both corporate missteps and big-picture industry shifts. They engage in counterfactuals (“What if Time Warner had merged with Fox?”), pick apart conventional wisdom, and are quick to point out the complexities behind apparently straightforward “bad decisions.”

For Those Who Haven’t Listened: Key Takeaways

• This episode convincingly argues that Hollywood’s most painful setbacks in the streaming era were self-inflicted: shortsighted licensing to Netflix, disastrous corporate mergers, chasing the wrong digital opportunities, and a retreat from creative risk.
• The show is rich with industry-insider anecdotes, candid “we all saw this coming” reflections, and sharp observations about the unintended consequences of decisions made by legacy studios, tech companies, and talent alike.
• Belloni and Shaw also suggest that technological disruption was both inevitable and mishandled—those who had the power to shape the future mostly bet against themselves.
• The discussion ends with a lighthearted music industry segment on Taylor Swift rumors—skipping this will not leave you missing out on the main industry analysis.

Additional Mentions & Honorable Disasters

• The sustained power of Marvel and IP-driven filmmaking, as a negative for risk-taking and film diversity.
• The failure of studios to unify on Hulu into a Netflix competitor.
• The impact of the pandemic and labor strikes on inflating and then destabilizing Hollywood’s business—but with the consensus that bigger mistakes were made earlier in the streaming era.

Recommended for:
Anyone interested in the modern history of Hollywood, the inside story of its digital transformation, and how “the golden goose” was systematically undermined—from inside and out.