The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The 2025 Box Office Year in Review: Sydney and Timmy, Superheroes vs. Horror, and Studio Power Rankings

Date: January 7, 2026 | Host: Matthew Belloni (The Ringer / Puck)
Guest: Scott Mendelsohn (Box office analyst, The Outside Scoop / Puck)

Episode Overview

In this energetic and candid year-end episode, host Matt Belloni is joined by box office analyst Scott Mendelsohn to break down the tumultuous 2025 box office landscape. The duo dissect the numbers, surprises, flops, and shifting studio fortunes—from big-budget superhero fatigue and a horror genre health check, to the rising star power of Sydney Sweeney and Timothée Chalamet. The panelists offer candid takes on what worked, what flopped, and why, as well as the implications for movie studios heading into 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2025 Box Office: By the Numbers

• Domestic box office total: $8.6 billion, well below analyst expectations of $9+ billion and pre-COVID highs of $10–11 billion.
  “This year, about 8.6 billion. Lots of reasons for that. But it always comes down to the number of big budget studio movies in theaters.” (Matt, 00:53)

• Number of wide releases: About 110–111, far below historical averages.

• Overseas struggles: Even weaker, except for massive outlier Nezhat 2 in China.

2. Why Did the Box Office Disappoint?

Scott identifies three main factors:

• Delays and missing tentpole releases—e.g., “If Mortal Kombat 2 and Saw 11 had opened in late September through late October as planned, might not have made up the entire difference, but it would have gotten pretty damn close.” (Scott, 03:23)
• Too few releases overall, particularly in summer and fall.
• Franchise fatigue: Event movies and sequels “already spoiled, irrelevant, past their prime leftovers.” (Scott, 03:49)
  • Karate Kid Legends, Tron Aries, and Running Man called out as particularly uninspired.

3. Disney: Hits, Misses & Portfolio Strategy

• Box office leader: $6B in 2025, but “masks the fact that Disney released… six underperforming movies…” (Matt, 07:00)

  • Hits: Zootopia 2, Lilo & Stitch, Avatar 3
  • Flops/underperformers: Elio, Snow White, Tron Aries, and three Marvel movies

• Grade: “B minus.” (Scott, 07:56)

  • Bombs partially offset by breakout hits.
  • Disney is “proof that they can open and nurture a mid market movie if it’s pre branded at least a little bit.” (Matt, 08:09)

4. Superhero Genre State Check

• Fewer releases: Only three major Marvel/DC movies in 2025.

• Performance: Underwhelming. “Fantastic Four at 520 [million] worldwide… Do you think Disney’s happy with that? No, not at all.” (Scott, 10:58)

• Matt's view: “These movies are not made to break even. These movies are made to drive the studio slate, and they’re not.” (Matt, 11:03)

• Broad take: Superhero movies are back to pre-boom status—successes are selective, the glory days are unlikely to return.

  • “The punditry and… Disney [are] still acting like the glory days of 2016-2018 are just around the corner. And I’m arguing they’re not.” (Scott, 11:14)

5. DC Universe & Superman Reboot

• Superman’s reboot: “Got to 600 [million]… I think they wanted more out of that.” (Matt, 12:25)
• International box office less reliable: Now closer to 50/50 split between domestic/overseas, “as opposed to… 40/60.” (Scott, 12:33)
• Caution around future DC films: Success doesn’t guarantee global enthusiasm for (another) cinematic universe.

6. Horror: Reliable, but Evolving

• Horror is “still the most reliable genre.” (Scott, 13:38)
• Branding matters: Hits are mostly sequels or based on known properties (Final Destination, Conjuring, Five Nights at Freddy’s).
• Originals can break through: “We did have two of the very biggest R rated original horror movies ever just this year with Weapons and Sinners.” (Scott, 14:19)
• Budget sensitivity: Originals like Weapons ($38M budget, $250M+ box) are the studio ideal.

7. Anime’s Mainstream Moment

• Breakout: “Chainsaw Man in the Movie… $43 million domestic off a $17 [million] budget… One of the biggest domestic grossing anime pictures ever.” (Scott, 17:06)
• Studio opportunity: Studios, especially Sony, should “lean in” as anime becomes mainstream for younger audiences.

8. Star Vehicles: Hits & Misses

• Star-driven flops: (September/October) “Stretch… when it was one after another, these star driven bombs…” (Matt, 18:07)
• Why? “Hollywood… failed… in making new movie stars, we’re still relying on people that peaked in the 90s and 2000s.” (Scott, 19:21)
• Surprise Mrs: Only Smashing Machine (Dwayne Johnson-led) was an unexpected miss; others were not (e.g., Julia Roberts vehicles).
  • Mishandled marketing cited for Smashing Machine (presented as “prestige” not action/appeal to Johnson’s usual audience).

9. Leggy Performers & Holiday Winners

• “Great Legs Award”: Sinners—limited opening, but “came within about 10–15 million of earning more, sans inflation, than The Sixth Sense and Inception.” (Scott, 24:21)
• Holiday stretch: The Housemaid, Marty Supreme, seen as late-breaking holiday winners likely to keep box office going.
  • “Guess what movie’s gonna make three times more than the Running Man.” (Scott on Housemaid/Sydney Sweeney, 25:00)
  • “Timmy [Chalamet] seems to be doing it… in Marty Supreme. That is not an all quadrant movie, I would argue.” (Matt, 25:46)

10. Studio Power Rankings & Report Cards

Warner Bros.

• Grade: A
  • “Warners let them make the movies they wanted to make.” (Matt, 28:52)
  • Standouts: Sinners, Marty Supreme, Minecraft (Kids/Jack Black vehicle)
  • Oscar positioning, but also nearly replaced studio heads before films released

Universal

• Grade: A- / A
  • “Their big flop was what, Megan 2… more of a moral blow than anything else.” (Scott, 31:43)
  • “Jurassic World barely dropped… you take out China… That film dropped, made 90% of what Jurassic World Dominion did in 2022.” (Scott, 32:05)
  • Live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” was a sneaky win and opens up new business line

Disney

• Grade: B / B-
  (See above)

Sony

• Grade: Poor
  • “If you’re only going to release like eight movies, one of them cannot be… I know what you did last summer. Legacy sequel. Karate Kid. Legacy sequel.” (Scott, 35:01)
  • Strength in anime acknowledged, but too reliant on scraping “the bottom of the IP barrel.”

Lionsgate

• “Last three months… close to an A” due to bold swings, even if “good fortune didn’t work. But those are the kind of swings you need to take.” (Scott, 39:55)

11. Flop of the Year

• Tron: Aries is named Flop of the Year
  • “Tron Aries by a mile. Because we all spent 15 years warning them not to do this.” (Scott, 38:57)
  • Legacy sequels sans original creative teams star Jared Leto fail to draw.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It sort of blows my—well, doesn’t blow my mind… that superhero comic book movies, specifically Marvel DC, are still treated as like the bar for success.” (Scott, 09:28)

• On Disney’s hits masking failures:
  “It really masks the fact that Disney released… six underperforming movies this past year.” (Matt, 07:00)

• “When you put movie stars in non movie star vehicles, they should not be expected to pull movie-star box office.” (Scott, 25:37)

• “Subvert the IP. That’s the big takeaway from the Summer.” (Scott, 39:55)

  • Refers to studios achieving success when they surprise or transcend basic IP recycling.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Overall box office metrics: [00:53–03:23]
• Breakdown of why 2025 missed projections: [03:23–06:08]
• Disney’s box office strategy & grading: [06:59–08:24]
• Superhero state of the union: [09:07–13:09]
• Horror’s box office health: [13:09–15:31]
• Anime goes mainstream: [17:06–18:07]
• Star vehicles: hits & misses: [18:07–21:18]
• Surprise & disappointment of the year: [21:18–22:27]
• Studio rankings and rationale: [31:40–37:43]
• Tron Aries named Flop of the Year: [38:57–39:34]
• Subverting the IP (takeaway message): [39:55–40:50]

Language & Tone

• Fast-paced, sharp, and opinionated
• Belloni and Mendelsohn banter candidly, not shying from naming specific titles or industry missteps
• Conversational but industry-savvy, giving listeners insider-level analysis without sugarcoating

For Those Who Haven’t Listened…

This episode offers a candid, comically blunt, but deeply informed assessment of Hollywood’s 2025 box office and studio ecosystem. From naming and shaming legacy sequels, to explaining why Timothée Chalamet is “the next Tom Cruise,” Belloni and Mendelsohn’s conversation is a must-listen (or, for readers, must-read) for anyone interested in the data, stories, and people shaping the U.S. movie business right now. Studio execs, headline-chasing streamers, and nostalgic audiences all face tough love, hard numbers, and honest advice.

Central wisdom for the next year:

"Subvert the IP. That’s the big takeaway from the summer." (Scott Mendelsohn, 39:55)