← The Town with Matthew Belloni
The Town with Matthew Belloni
The 2025 Box Office Year in Review: Sydney and Timmy, Superheroes vs. Horror, and Studio Power Rankings
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- [00:00]
Matt Bellany
This episode of the Town is brought to you by netflix. Presenting Frankenstein Nominated for five Golden Globe Awards, including best Motion Picture Drama, Best Director and best Adapted Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro, the New York Times hails Frankenstein is stunning. The movie Guillermo del Toro was born to make. Starring Golden Globe nominees Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi, Esq. Raves Frankenstein will be considered a classic for lifetimes to come for your awards consideration. This episode is brought to you by HBO Max Industry is Back the acclaimed HBO original series returns January 11th for another thrilling season when a splashy fintech startup bursts onto the London scene. Harper and Yasmin are drawn into opposing sides of a high stakes financial deal that could bring them both down in the market. Perception is everything. Who is selling the truth and who is dealing in lies? Kiernan Shipka, Max Minghella and Charlie Heaton joined Kit Harrington and the cast for the wildest season yet. Season four of HBO's Industry premieres January 11th on HBO Max. It is Wednesday, January 7th. It's the first week of January, so we're getting a year end box office snapshot for 2025. Overall, not great. Most analysts had predicted at least $9 billion in total domestic box office. That's year US and Canada which would have been fine. The total was regularly above 10 billion pre Covid and topped 11 billion in 2019. This year, about 8.6 billion. Lots of reasons for that. But it always comes down to the number of big budget studio movies in theaters. About 110, 111 wide releases this past year and of course whether audiences like those movies. We'll have the overseas numbers soon, but it's looking even worse there, especially if you take out Nezhat 2, which grossed about $2 billion in almost all of it. In China there were big hits this year. Disney got to $6 billion on its own with the help of Zootopia 2 and Lilo & Stitch and Avatar 3. But it also released six disappointments. That's a lot. Universal rebooted a franchise with how to Train youn Dragon and Warner Brothers went on that crazy streak this summer. Not so much for Paramount and especially Sony though. The holiday corridor is offering a good narrative for pretty much everyone, especially especially Sydney Sweeney and Timothee Chalamet and the whole idea of a star driven dramatic movie. Positive trend there. So many narratives. So we've got our box office guy Scott Mendelsohn here today to break it down. We're gonna give grades to the studios and offer up our biggest surprises, biggest disappointments and Outright flops of the year at the movies and what it all means for 26 from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany, and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Scott Mendelsohn, who is a box office analyst. He has his own substack called the Outside Scoop, and he also contributes to Puck, where I work. Welcome back.
- [02:54]
Scott Mendelsohn
Scott. Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be back here. Thank you for having.
- [02:58]
Matt Bellany
Me. Happy 2026. We survived the movies of.
- [03:01]
Scott Mendelsohn
2025. In some ways, that was the easiest thing to.
- [03:05]
Matt Bellany
Survive. Well, yes. You see them all, though. I do not see them all. You. You are a. And I. And I respect that you sat through them all. I don't want to name names, but I want to start with the overall picture here. Why did this happen? What do you make of the year at the box office, and why did it.
- [03:24]
Scott Mendelsohn
Disappoint? Two reasons. Well, three, really. I mean, specifically, if Michael, Mortal Kombat 2 and Saw11 had opened in late September through late October as planned, might not have made up the entire difference, but it would have gotten pretty damn.
- [03:40]
Matt Bellany
Close. Okay, but we could always talk about titles. I mean, but then Weapons was moved into 2025, and it was supposed to be a 26.
- [03:49]
Scott Mendelsohn
Release. Generally speaking, there are still far too few movies on the regular. I mean, even Summer, July of the summer had six wide releases, one of which was Eddington, which I would argue wasn't really about box office long term. Again, for the love of the game, blah, blah, blah. And you also had a bunch of franchise tentpoles that would have bombed in the 2010s and were already spoiled, irrelevant, past their prime leftovers, the films of which did nothing to inspire for those already not interested, excitement, like Smurfs. Like, I know what you did last summer. Force Awakens edition, like, and I liked it. Karate Kid.
- [04:29]
Matt Bellany
Legends. Oh, don't get me started on Karate Kid Legends. I still don't understand that.
- [04:33]
Scott Mendelsohn
One. Did you see.
- [04:35]
Matt Bellany
It? Yeah, I did see that one. We didn't even see Daniel until, like, an hour into the.
- [04:40]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movie. That's why it was great, because.
- [04:42]
Matt Bellany
They talked about this for as long as possible. We've talked about this. That was awful. Like, I go to see fricking Danielson. He's not Danielson until an hour in the.
- [04:51]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movie. That being said, there are too many. Again, too few movies and too many event movies. Like the Running.
- [05:00]
Matt Bellany
Man. Yeah. Ooh, what a whiff. Running man and Tron Aries. Like, that fall period from September, October, November, that was.
- [05:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
Rough. And this is all garbage. That would have bombed in the.
- [05:11]
Matt Bellany
2010S. You think so? You think Running man would have bombed then? You think Snow White would have bombed pre Covid? Yes, you.
- [05:18]
Scott Mendelsohn
Do. I do. And it's not Rachel Zegler's fault. You know, she might have cost that movie hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of dollars, but it's not the difference between what it made, which is what, about 200 million, give or take. And like, even Cinderella numbers five, you know, five, 20, 10 years.
- [05:35]
Matt Bellany
Ago. I don't know. I think that that movie did get hurt by the backlash. It just became tainted. And there were too many controversies. Little people and the casting, and they were fake BS controversies. But like, they. They did become a thing. And then the movie didn't quite deliver. And then it was like, oh, whatever, we've moved on. I do think that Elio might have worked pre Covid, or at least not. It's a bomb for Pixar for sure, but it would have gotten into the 4 or 500 range, I think, pre.
- [06:09]
Scott Mendelsohn
Covid. I agree. And there's, you know, we can spend the whole time talking about Disney 2010s vs Disney 2020s and what that was. Unforced error. What if that was, you know, self sabotage? Heck, I think Elio would have done better had it not been delayed from early.
- [06:26]
Matt Bellany
2024. Yeah, they were so afraid of.
- [06:28]
Scott Mendelsohn
It. It wouldn't have been skin to the bone to avoid any, you know, Facebook controversy. Oh, no. Elio wears pink. He's gay. It's pedophilia groomer propaganda, which, again, nobody in the real world, nobody gives a about that stuff. But. But it also would have been coming about six months after, seven months after Elemental, which was a leggy, beloved Pixar original that sort of got people.
- [06:51]
Matt Bellany
Back in the game, and that one continues to perform on Disney. But ELIO Getting to 150 worldwide, that's a disaster. That can't.
- [07:00]
Scott Mendelsohn
Happen. It is. It's.
- [07:01]
Matt Bellany
Embarrassing. Especially considering it's interesting. Disney went hard on the press release at the end of the year about hitting $6 billion in box office, which is the first time that's happened since COVID And it's heavily weighted on Lilo and Stitch and Zootopia 2 with Avatar, of course, in there. But it really masks the fact that Disney released, by my count, six underperforming movies this past year. Elio, Snow White, Tron, Ares, and the three Marvel movies. Not great overall, but because of the portfolio strategy, they had an outsized hit in Zootopia. Chinese people effing love it for some reason and not some reason, it's very good. But like for a movie like that to do $600 million in China, amazing. But if you did a check in on Disney this year, what kind of grade do you give.
- [07:57]
Scott Mendelsohn
Them? B minus. Because I mean, and I wrote about this, I don't know, maybe September before freaking Friday came out. Which by the way prettier. Friday. $150 on a 45 budget. Pretty good for a live action.
- [08:09]
Matt Bellany
Comedy. Sure. Yes. And proof that Disney can open and nurture a mid market movie if it's pre branded at least a little.
- [08:19]
Scott Mendelsohn
Bit.
- [08:20]
Matt Bellany
Yes. Don't look to them for something original but for pre branded they can do.
- [08:25]
Scott Mendelsohn
It. And for up until, you know, obviously November, they were riding on Lilo and Stitch and only Lilo and Stitch. And we all knew that Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 were be so big that it would paper over most of the deficiencies. And frankly, it's entirely possible that next year we'll have the same thing with Toy Story 5 and Avengers, Doomsday and Mandalorian. I don't think it's going to do Last Jedi numbers, but I think it'll do.
- [08:49]
Matt Bellany
Well. Let's do the superhero check in. How do you feel the genre is going and the state of the superhero movie right now given Superman and given the three Marvel movies, Thunderbolts and Captain Brave New World and Fantastic Four. First.
- [09:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
Steps. Two things. First of all, just by virtue of Disney buying Fox and Sony being mostly out of the non Spider man superhero game, we're going to see a lot fewer Marvel DC movies anyway than we did in the 2010s back when Venom was competition and Deadpool was.
- [09:22]
Matt Bellany
Competition. There's only three this year. There's the two DC movies, Supergirl and Clayface, and then there's.
- [09:28]
Scott Mendelsohn
Doomsday. Yes. That being said, it sort of blows my. Well, doesn't blow my mind because SEO and all, but it bemuses me that superhero comic book movies, specifically Marvel DC are still treated as like the bar for.
- [09:42]
Matt Bellany
Success. Well, listen, they've been the driving force of the box office for the past 15.
- [09:47]
Scott Mendelsohn
Years. Honestly, I would say they've both been driving force the box office between 2016 and 2019. Because even like go back to 2015, you had Avengers, which was huge, Fantastic Four which bombed, and Ant man which did.
- [09:59]
Matt Bellany
Fine. I guess I'm thinking mcu. The MCU movies all did pretty.
- [10:03]
Scott Mendelsohn
Well and again they were all doing very well, but it wasn't really until 2016-2018 through 2019, that became a dominating all assuming tentpole force. And I think now all we're seeing is sort of a return to the status quo, where a comic book movie like Captain the Winter Soldier could do very well in 2014, but globally, it would still get its butt kicked by Age of Extinction and Hobbit, the Battle of the Five Armies, and that would be okay. The problem is, even in an ecosystem where every time a romantic comedy bombs, romantic comedies are doomed, every time a Western underperforms, the Western is dead. And yet we've had mediocre to pretty good results for most comic book movies since 2023, with periodic.
- [10:49]
Matt Bellany
Exceptions. Well, wait a second. I mean, the problem is these movies cost so much. Do you think Fantastic4 at 520 worldwide, you think Disney's happy with that?
- [10:59]
Scott Mendelsohn
No. No, not at all. Well, I don't think they would have been happy with it. Even if it was 170 Thunderbolts.
- [11:04]
Matt Bellany
And Captain America not getting to more than 400. You think they're not happy with that? These movies are not made to break even. These movies are made to drive the studio slate, and they're.
- [11:14]
Scott Mendelsohn
Not. Well, my point is that we say, oh, this genre is dead. This genre is dead. This genre is dead. And yet the punditry and or Disney is still acting like the glory days of 2016-2018 are just around the corner. And I'm arguing they're not. Yes, you're still going to have unto themselves events for popular franchises or characters like Batman, Spider Man, Black Panther, Guardians of the Galaxy. That one's pretty much done. But.
- [11:39]
Matt Bellany
Whatever. They're never done. They're never done. You don't think Kevin Feige's sitting there at Marvel going, all right, how do we bring him back? How much is Pratt going to be? What? Like, you know, they're having those.
- [11:49]
Scott Mendelsohn
Conversations. And the question is, is there a downturn if Gunn's not involved? Because I can't imagine Gunn's going.
- [11:55]
Matt Bellany
To be involved when he works for the rival company. No, probably not. Speaking of DC, though, let's talk about Superman. That movie got to 600. David Zaslav doing a little dance about how they relaunched the DC universe. Great. Good for them. They can credibly make Supergirl and more of those movies, but I think they wanted more out of that. Their marquee franchise. It's the one. I know Superman has been a tough sell in the past, but this is the one. They put all their eggs in that basket and I think they wanted.
- [12:25]
Scott Mendelsohn
More out of it overseas. I think we're in a situation that overseas box office in general is less reliable than it used to be. Not just in.
- [12:33]
Matt Bellany
China.
- [12:34]
Scott Mendelsohn
Right. Or closer to 50. 50 for most movies, I would say. As opposed to what used to be like 4060, give or take. And Superman has never been big overseas, with the exception of Batman v Superman, give or take. This film did very well domestically, I will argue, considering it was coming off a again, the reception and the reviews and the buzz were a lot closer to Batman Begins than the Amazing Spider Man. And that's where you want to be. Now, does that mean that people, general audiences give a damn about DC Studios and are excited about, oh boy, another DC Cinematic Universe? No, but I would argue they didn't care the first.
- [13:10]
Matt Bellany
Time. All right, so let's do a horror. A horror check in. Now, we had a pretty steady stream of horror movies throughout the season. You know, Blum came on this show to talk about why Megan 2 didn't work. But then by the end of the year, he's got Five Nights at Freddy's two. He's got the Conjuring sequel, which was a huge hit via Atomic Monster. Where are we with horror? Is it still the most reliable.
- [13:38]
Scott Mendelsohn
Genre? Well, yes, it is still the most reliable.
- [13:41]
Matt Bellany
Genre. None of this horror is weak now. Horror is going the way of comedy and.
- [13:45]
Scott Mendelsohn
Drama. It was never, I mean, even in the dark times of early 2024, it was a matter that was no longer punching above its weight on the regular. And that original horror films were a slightly harder sell than, you know, during the boom times of.
- [13:58]
Matt Bellany
2022. 2023 seems like branded horror is the model. Like to get to those numbers, you need a Final Destination, you need a Conjuring, you need a Five Nights at Freddy's, which is a well known brand. It seems to be a little harder at the studio level to break the original horror.
- [14:20]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movies. Yes. But we did have two of the very biggest R rated original horror movies ever. Just this year with Weapons and.
- [14:26]
Matt Bellany
Sinners. Relatively speaking, I would call those elevated horror. Or at least they were marketed as. They were certainly not slasher.
- [14:33]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movies. Don't get to say just because they're good, they're not real horror.
- [14:36]
Matt Bellany
Movies. I don't know. I saw Sinners and I don't see horror.
- [14:39]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movies. Well, you know what? That's a lot of people probably saw get out that didn't see horror movies. That's a horror.
- [14:45]
Matt Bellany
Movie. Okay. All right. But that is also a tour that sinners cost about $100 million. So, like, that's not the normal horror.
- [14:53]
Scott Mendelsohn
Model. Chapter two cost.
- [14:54]
Craig
70.
- [14:55]
Scott Mendelsohn
Nope. Cost 70. And yes, that is not normal. Normal is weapons, which cost about 38. And it still did 250. 260.
- [15:03]
Matt Bellany
Worldwide. That's why Zach Kreger can write his own checks now, because he's doing the model that the studios want to.
- [15:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
Do. And it is encouraging that in terms of branding, some of that branding is the filmmaker. And if Resident Evil actually pops at the end of this year, it will be more because it's the guy that made weapons in Barbarian than. Oh boy, another Resident Evil movie. But not like the ones that you liked in the.
- [15:25]
Matt Bellany
2010S. Yeah. Although it helps that it's a brand that people have heard of. Less marketing required to tell you what it.
- [15:31]
Scott Mendelsohn
Is. As far as Blumhouse, I mean, and this is a difference of opinion, I don't think conjuring should count toward their year end.
- [15:39]
Matt Bellany
Total. Oh, how dare you. You're going to get a strong rebuke from Jason Blum. I know. They bought the company or they merged with the.
- [15:47]
Scott Mendelsohn
Company. I know, but it's. And again, I am just as cranky about, you know, in Disney, Fox, what counts to what kind of.
- [15:54]
Matt Bellany
Thing. I.
- [15:54]
Scott Mendelsohn
Know. I don't want to say Stolen.
- [15:55]
Matt Bellany
Valor. You know what, though? They all buy these companies. Like Universal has the Minions movies, not because they develop Minions, but because they have a financial stake in Illumination. So they get.
- [16:07]
Scott Mendelsohn
It. But Despicable Me was a Universal movie from the start. And again, if and when Atomic Monster and Blumhouse start releasing more movies that are original or weren't huge when they weren't separate, then we'll talk just like. Even though it wasn't a huge hit, I think Predator Badlands was aspirational for Disney because that's the first Fox franchise that I will argue got better after Disney bought.
- [16:31]
Matt Bellany
Them. Yeah, but I don't think Badlands ended up being very.
- [16:34]
Scott Mendelsohn
Profitable. No, but again, it's not that big of a hit. All of the good buzz in the world didn't get anyone that wasn't otherwise interested into the theaters. We see that every once in a while with something like Power Rangers or Dungeons and Dragons where it's like, it's a great, wonderful version of something that I still have no interest.
- [16:51]
Matt Bellany
In. Yeah. All right. Your surprise hit of the.
- [16:54]
Scott Mendelsohn
Year. There were lots of movies that I expected to succeed that went Balker's bananas like sinners, Nizon 2. Most of the Warner brothers sleep from April to.
- [17:03]
Matt Bellany
September.
- [17:04]
Scott Mendelsohn
Right. But Chainsaw man in the.
- [17:06]
Matt Bellany
Movie. Oh, missed that.
- [17:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
One. Made 43 million domestic off a 17 budget, which a, is really leggy for an anime movie and B, it's one of the biggest domestic grossing anime pictures ever. You know, obviously behind the very high grossing Infinity Castle with a lot less buzz and free.
- [17:25]
Matt Bellany
Publicity. It's true. Big year for anime. Gotta say, we did a whole show on it. Like between that and K Pop and all of.
- [17:31]
Scott Mendelsohn
It. Yeah. It is no longer niche. You know, it has been accepted as mainstream. I think it counts in terms of what Sony puts out in a theatrical year. I think it counts toward what Sony puts out in the animated ecosystem in a given year. And that it can only be a good thing because even if they average out to Chainsaw man numbers domestically, you know, if you get 3 or 4 or 5 of those, that's 200 million in money that you wouldn't expect it a few years.
- [17:55]
Matt Bellany
Ago. Yeah, they got to lean in on this. Like anime is here for kids my.
- [18:01]
Scott Mendelsohn
Age. Anime is their.
- [18:02]
Matt Bellany
Superheroes. You mean the age of your.
- [18:04]
Scott Mendelsohn
Kids? I'm sorry, yes, for children. The age of my.
- [18:07]
Matt Bellany
Children. Right. So no, I get. I know. I don't understand why these companies aren't investing more. Disney needs a strategy. Anime. They really do. I know they have some stuff overseas, but they really need to get into this. All right, Surprise miss of the year. There was that stretch in, you know, September, October when it was one after another, these star driven bombs like Christie and Smashing Machine and you know, after the Hunt and all of these big movies, you know, any of those actually surprise you that they missed one and the other.
- [18:39]
Scott Mendelsohn
Ones? I will say absolutely not. It's ridiculous for us to pretend that in years after the Secret in Her Eyes bombed for STX that somehow after the Hunt was going to be this big blockbuster for mgm.
- [18:50]
Matt Bellany
Amazon. All right, well, wait a second. They did have Julia Roberts in a Luca Guadagnino movie. Like you think there was a.
- [18:56]
Scott Mendelsohn
Kind of audience in her.
- [18:57]
Matt Bellany
Eyes. Okay, I know, but you spend $70 million on a Luca movie with Julia Roberts, you think that there might be more than $10 million worth of box office out there and that's why.
- [19:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
They need to call me before they put those checks again. This is not talent. Julia Roberts is a wonderful actress and as far as I know, a lovely human.
- [19:15]
Matt Bellany
Being. I've never met her. As far as you know. That's. It's not true. She's not, she's not. She's not very nice. But whatever, keep going. Fair.
- [19:21]
Scott Mendelsohn
Enough. But one huge problem is because Hollywood so horribly failed and over the last 20 years and making new movie stars, we're still relying on people that peaked in the 90s and.
- [19:32]
Matt Bellany
2000S. Yeah, but you know what? She did the Clooney movie and it did fine. The Return to Paradise or whatever it's.
- [19:39]
Scott Mendelsohn
Called. And even that, like we knew 30 years ago that Julia Roberts in unfun movies aren't box office. I'm the only person on earth that liked Mary Riley, but I'm the only person on earth that was in the theater that opening.
- [19:49]
Matt Bellany
Weekend. All right, that was. That's a deep cut there. All right, let's, let's. So your surprise Mrs. What? Yeah. By the way, that was Ticket to Paradise, not thank you, Craig. That was Ticket to Paradise, not.
- [19:59]
Scott Mendelsohn
Return. Yes, yes. The only movie in that New York Times article that always star Power Dead or whatever that was actually a surprise was Smashing.
- [20:05]
Matt Bellany
Machine. Yeah, Big.
- [20:06]
Scott Mendelsohn
Man. I was expecting numbers on par with Wayne Johnson's free superstar vehicles. I'm thinking stuff like Faster and Snitch and you know, just a movie vehicles that he would still pilot the halfway decent money on realistic.
- [20:20]
Matt Bellany
Budgets. Yeah. Now we've talked about this. They, they screwed up the marketing on that. They took it to Venice and presented it as this big prestige movie and they should have just tried to get his audience to show up opening weekend, marketed it like a mid budget Dwayne Johnson movie rather than a Oscar contender. And it just whiffed the other.
- [20:39]
Scott Mendelsohn
Thing. And you mentioned this, I think when it came out. But as somebody that liked many of Dwayne Johnson's 2010's big movies, I think Rampage is the best video game movie ever.
- [20:50]
Matt Bellany
Made. Oh, you.
- [20:51]
Scott Mendelsohn
Do? I.
- [20:53]
Matt Bellany
Do. Again, I didn't see that.
- [20:55]
Scott Mendelsohn
One. It's a lot of fun and again, it works whether or not you give a damn about the.
- [20:59]
Matt Bellany
Ip. Yeah. San Andreas is my favorite rock movie. I thought that was great. I love a good earthquake.
- [21:06]
Scott Mendelsohn
Movie. And up until this year, it was the last fully original live action Hollywood movie to top 470, even 470 worldwide, let alone beyond F1, of course. Did the thing this.
- [21:19]
Matt Bellany
Year. Is F1 the biggest win of the.
- [21:21]
Scott Mendelsohn
Year? No, because it's not going to help.
- [21:23]
Matt Bellany
Anybody. It is going to help. It's going to help every filmmaker that wants Apple to release their movie in theaters because now they can say, oh, I've got the next F1 for you and if you want to have a big summer movie hit, then you should buy my movie for an exorbitant.
- [21:36]
Scott Mendelsohn
Price, you are more in the know than I am on a day to day basis. Is there any reason to assume that Apple is being more aggressive and optimistic about theatrical releases before F1 than they were after Fly Me to the Moon? Because I don't see any traction in that.
- [21:55]
Matt Bellany
Sense. They're doing another Joe Kaczynski movie and that one does have a theatrical commitment, so they are willing to do it. If F1 had flopped, I think then they would have washed their hands of the whole theater experiment. But they are willing to do it for the right project, or so they say. So, and I think that was important.
- [22:16]
Scott Mendelsohn
Yeah. But until I see Apple being like, you know, frankly, like Amazon in terms of throwing out a lot more stuff in theaters, come L or I water at the end of the day, F1 is only good for F1, and that's.
- [22:28]
Matt Bellany
Fine. What do you mean? It's 600 million bucks. Not bad. Warner's got a distribution fee out of that. Brad Pitt gets to be a movie star.
- [22:35]
Scott Mendelsohn
Again. And if they get bought up and swallowed by Netflix, who gives a.
- [22:39]
Matt Bellany
Damn? No, I know, I know. We don't have to talk about that, but big win for Brad Pitt on that one. I mean, that's his biggest box office of his career. Not adjusted for.
- [22:48]
Scott Mendelsohn
Inflation. Yeah, and again, it's great for F1. It's great for everybody involved with F1, but. But I'd be happier about it if Apple was being more aggressive for theatrical and frankly, if Warner Brothers wasn't in peril of being thanos snapped into oblivion for no particular reason.
- [23:06]
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- [23:25]
Scott Mendelsohn
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- [23:26]
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- [23:28]
Craig
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- [23:30]
Scott Mendelsohn
Happen. I just want to sing and I want to.
- [23:32]
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- [23:40]
Matt Bellany
Theaters. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. Searchlight Pictures presents Rental Family. Writer director Hikari crafts a masterpiece of visual cinema and heartfelt connection. Weaving together exquisite cinematography, a transcendent score and pitch perfect casting, Academy Award winner Brendan Fraser delivers a masterful performance in one of the best films of the year. A transportive love letter to Japan, Rental Family is the rare introduction of a new, unique and instantly identifiable voice. Critics are calling it pure movie magic and a stunning achievement for your consideration. In all Categories. Give me your great legs award. The movie that legged out, obviously. Sinners, right? Gotta be Sinners.
- [24:22]
Scott Mendelsohn
Yeah. I mean, it barely opened bigger than Snow White, yet it came within about 10, $15 million of earning more, sans inflation, than the sixth sense and.
- [24:30]
Matt Bellany
Inception. Right. Any. Any good runner up for that one? Sinners is obvious. Any good runner up the movie that we may not have realized how much it made, I think we're going to have some big ones out of the holidays. I think the Housemaid is going to end up over 200 million worldwide. Amazing. I think Marty supreme could end up around 150, which, you know, query whether that's enough on a $70 million budget, but I think that the holiday movies are going to keep going during this like, fallow.
- [25:01]
Scott Mendelsohn
Period. Yes, House made normal rate of descent suggest around 225 worldwide on a 35 budget. And with all the is Sydney Sweeney box office poison nonsense we had to deal with this year because oh no, Americana, a movie you've never heard of, didn't make money. And oh no, Eden, another movie you've never heard of, didn't make money. Guess what movie's gonna make three times more than the Running.
- [25:24]
Matt Bellany
Man. I know, I know. And she's done a lot. But like Lucas said on the show, this is the kind of movie in Housemaid that people want to see her in. They don't want to see her looking terrible in a boxing movie and getting her face beaten.
- [25:37]
Scott Mendelsohn
In. Which is why it should not count as a test of her star power. When you put movie stars in non movie star vehicles, they should not be expected to pull movie star box.
- [25:46]
Matt Bellany
Office. Yeah. Although Timmy seems to be doing it. Doing it in Marty Supreme. That is not a. An all quadrant movie, I would.
- [25:52]
Scott Mendelsohn
Argue. Well, Bones and All was not a flop, but it only did like 21 worldwide, give or take, which is fine for that movie, but again, that's very different than Waka Dune, Marty supreme. What? Or even Zendaya with Challengers. I don't expect Zendaya making a quote unquote art film to do what Challengers would have done, but yeah, Marty Supreme. I mean, yes, it's probably the most aspirational give or take the Housemaid release of the holiday season, if not the year, just because. I'm not saying he's the next Tom Cruise in terms of bankability, but in terms of his single minded. I will throw myself off every glyph on earth to sell this movie and make sure that you are excited about this movie. And this is key. I Will talk about nothing else other than the movie. Do not ask me about Marvel. Do not ask me about Dune 3 spoilers. Do not ask me about Netflix because I will not.
- [26:44]
Matt Bellany
Answer. Very disciplined. He's very disciplined in the messaging. You're.
- [26:48]
Scott Mendelsohn
Right. And that is to me, along with the obvious intensity. And I'd say that neither criticism nor compliment. That does remind me of Tom.
- [26:55]
Matt Bellany
Cruise. Yeah, it does. Glenn Powell wants to be Tom Cruise. Maybe Timmy is going to be Tom.
- [27:00]
Scott Mendelsohn
Cruise. But no. Yes, it's expensive. But some of that's unfortunately. And this comes to whether it's one battle after another or Marty supreme, where inflation and a decade of rising production costs, you know, apples for apples. One battle after another. If it had been made in 2016, 2015 would have cost around 100 million. And in that era when Leo Star vehicles were pulling over under 300 on a whim, that was a smart bet. And I don't think it was insane that Mike and Pam said, let's try a 2010 style Leo vehicle and see how it plays in.
- [27:34]
Matt Bellany
2025. Well, with Paul Thomas Anderson, I think someone who never grossed more than 75 million and has a history of much more niche offerings, I think it's a risk now. They were touting from the beginning, this is his most, his most commercial movie ever. It's like, okay, but he's still Paul Thomas Anderson. So there is a ceiling on what he's going to be able to get. And I think we hit it. This is about the ceiling of what you can get out of it. And they'll win Best Picture and they'll be happy. But I don't know that if you are thinking about the bottom line at Warner's, if you greenlight that movie.
- [28:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
Again, it depends on what else you have in your stable. Because I think if you are like super duper confident in sinners, and they clearly were, and they know that Minecraft is going to be huge with the kids and whatever because it's Jack Black, America's favorite under 18 movie star, give or take. And that's not a criticism at.
- [28:25]
Matt Bellany
All. I cannot wait to see David Zaslav at the Governor's Ball after the Oscars. The look on his face when he walks around with that Best Picture win is going to be.
- [28:35]
Scott Mendelsohn
Priceless. You know.
- [28:36]
Matt Bellany
What? It's good for him. Listen, good for him. The people that were not laughing at the David Zaslav joke at the Critics Choice Awards were the sinners people. And the one battle after another people, because Warners let them make the movies they wanted to.
- [28:52]
Scott Mendelsohn
Make. Exactly. And it's. It's. Was he particularly hands on? I have no idea. But he deserved just as much credit for saying, go, you know, have fun. Come back before dark. And that's what we need more of in the studio.
- [29:05]
Matt Bellany
System. And then before the movies came out, he was going to replace the studio heads for doing that. But whatever, we will forget all of.
- [29:11]
Scott Mendelsohn
That. Was that ever actually.
- [29:13]
Matt Bellany
True? Yes, it was true. I do not report things that are not true. Yes, he was looking. Now, was he like conducting interviews with a line outside his door? No, he was putting feelers out. The way you do this. Talking to people who know people. Talking to people. Hey, might you be interested in coming in like it's. It's a subtle dance because you don't want it to leak? And then it did to.
- [29:35]
Scott Mendelsohn
Me. Then all I'll say to that is, you do not sack the executives before any of the movies they greenlit actually come out. That is insane to.
- [29:44]
Matt Bellany
Me. Well, there were some choices that were made on the movies that did come out that I don't think you like. Also, to your point, Alternights, which was one of the big, biggest bombs of the year, David Zaslav rammed that through the system for his friend Nick Pileggi, who is he's buds with from the Hamptons like Warner sin want to make.
- [30:02]
Scott Mendelsohn
Alto. Why didn't Zaslav get fired for.
- [30:04]
Matt Bellany
That? Because he's in charge. He has a force field around.
- [30:08]
Scott Mendelsohn
Him. And this goes to the whole Paramount, Warner Brothers, Netflix thing. It's like if DeLuca and Abdi were almost about to get fired. My words, not yours. After Mickey 17, Bond, which was an R rated $120 million sci fi movie that.
- [30:23]
Matt Bellany
Bombed. From the reigning best Picture winner, Bong Joon Ho.
- [30:27]
Scott Mendelsohn
Yes. From the previous.
- [30:28]
Matt Bellany
Regime.
- [30:29]
Scott Mendelsohn
Yes. Then why the hell did the Ellisons not get canned? Or whoever was under them? After The R rated $110 million based on a popular book, the Running man came out and only made $70.
- [30:42]
Matt Bellany
Million. Well, the Ellisons didn't greenlight that. That was a Brian Robbins from the previous.
- [30:46]
Scott Mendelsohn
Regime. And again, DeLuca and Abdi didn't green. As far as I know, they didn't greenlight Mickey.
- [30:50]
Matt Bellany
17. I know Paramount gets a mulligan this year because of all the chaos going on.
- [30:55]
Scott Mendelsohn
There. I almost feel bad. Almost as bad for them as I do for Warner Brothers. Because they don't want to make Rush Hour 4. They're not.
- [31:01]
Matt Bellany
Idiots. No, they're not making it. They're just releasing.
- [31:03]
Scott Mendelsohn
It. They don't want to distribute it, of.
- [31:05]
Matt Bellany
Course. No. Nobody does. This is a Trump thing. They're doing it for Trump without getting into the.
- [31:10]
Scott Mendelsohn
Weeds. They're not the ones that fired the stars of Scream 7. That was.
- [31:14]
Matt Bellany
Spyglass. I know. Okay, but we're talking about 2025 here. And if you look at the studios, you say Disney gets a B. B minus. Anyone get an A? Warners. Right. Warner gets an A. What about Universal? This was supposed to be their off year because they have, you know, all their big movies next year with Odyssey and Spielberg and Minions and Mario. They did okay this year. Jurassic did.
- [31:40]
Scott Mendelsohn
Fine. I'm almost inclined to give them an A. And here's.
- [31:44]
Matt Bellany
Why. Oh, really? I don't know if I go that.
- [31:46]
Scott Mendelsohn
Far. Their big flop was what, Megan 2. That was still a 30, 25 million dollars movie that crawled to 40 million. Is it profitable? God, no. Is it going to make money in the long, long, long run? It was more of a moral blow than anything.
- [32:01]
Matt Bellany
Else. Well, and they had to. They had to cancel the spin off Soulmate that they were going to release in.
- [32:05]
Scott Mendelsohn
January. But Jurassic World barely dropped from Jurassic World Dominion, despite no new movie, new cast, all that nonsense. You take out China, which obviously is unpredictable. That film dropped, made 90% of what Jurassic World Dominion did in.
- [32:19]
Matt Bellany
2022. Yeah, and they can do another one again. All of these things are for the ability to do another one.
- [32:26]
Scott Mendelsohn
And.
- [32:26]
Matt Bellany
Exactly. They're even talking about doing more Wicked, even though Wicked is.
- [32:30]
Scott Mendelsohn
Over. Did Wicked 2 make less than Wicked 1? Absolutely. Closer to it chapter 2 than Dude Part 2. But two.
- [32:37]
Matt Bellany
Things.
- [32:38]
Scott Mendelsohn
A. If Wicked Part 1 had come out in 2024 and made 520 million, they'd be dancing in the streets. And justifiably so. The fact that it looks worse is only because Wicked 1 so ridiculously overperformed in the US something like Head 2 or Wakanda Forever, or even the Last Jedi, I will argue. And I also think Universal is smart enough to know that they're doing fine. And if we don't get more Wicked, well, darn. I mean, I don't want that. Do you want that? Do you want an original prequel that takes place before Wicked or an original what happens.
- [33:13]
Matt Bellany
Next? Listen, this franchise is not for me, but maybe the fans do. I think the appeal of Wicked was the music and the relationship between these actors. So maybe if they. The music's good, but it's hard to recreate a hit musical. Speaking of recreations, they stole the Disney Playbook and they did fine with how to Train youn Dragon. I think that is kind of the sneaky win of the year because how to Train youn Dragon, Live action actually did work and they can make these others that they've already said they're gonna make and this is like a new business line for.
- [33:43]
Scott Mendelsohn
Them. And even if they don't like make a whole bunch of DreamWorks remakes, and we talked about that earlier, whether that was going to happen or not, they get at least two, I would argue, surefire successes in how to train youn Dragon 2, which is one of the best, if not the best, DreamWorks cartoon ever made, and how to Train youn Dragon 3, which I can't imagine either of those films not doing at least very, very good.
- [34:05]
Matt Bellany
Business. Yeah, 636 worldwide. Pretty good for how to Train youn Dragon. And you know it's coming. I know they've got Shrek 5 in 27, but you know, live action Shrek will.
- [34:17]
Scott Mendelsohn
Happen. If they can do it without making it a horror, you know, a body horror movie. Yes, I think they'll do it.
- [34:22]
Matt Bellany
If it doesn't look like.
- [34:23]
Scott Mendelsohn
Cats. Yes. That being said, yes. You know, in a sad ecosystem where studios are judged on, here's all the movies we made and here's all the money we made from those movies, some of them are big, some of them are small, some of them are tentpole, some of them are not. Some of them are horror, some of them are melodramas. I think Universal had what should be a normal studio slate and that's.
- [34:46]
Matt Bellany
Fine. Yeah. And we don't have to talk about Sony. Poor.
- [34:50]
Scott Mendelsohn
Sony. I will very quickly talk about Sony. Two things. First of all, one of them days should be a normal release for them, not the exception of the.
- [34:57]
Matt Bellany
Rules. One of them days was fine. It's one of the few big mid budget movies that was actually.
- [35:02]
Scott Mendelsohn
Profitable. But, you know, good for them for being the ones to actually release that. That being said, if you're only going to release like eight movies, one of them cannot be. Again, I know what you did last summer. Legacy sequel. Karate Kid. Legacy sequel. I'm far more willing to give, you know, some slack to a big, bold, beautiful journey. Because at least they're trying.
- [35:21]
Matt Bellany
There. Yeah, Margot Robbie, man. What happened.
- [35:24]
Craig
There?
- [35:24]
Scott Mendelsohn
Careful. She was never a.
- [35:26]
Matt Bellany
Star. Oh, yes she is. Shut your mouth. She's a.
- [35:29]
Scott Mendelsohn
Star. Did you see Amsterdam in theaters? Okay, you.
- [35:31]
Matt Bellany
Probably. I did not, but I. I did see Babylon and I am a big. I am a big fan of.
- [35:35]
Scott Mendelsohn
Babylon. And again, this is not an insult. This is the problem. With the system as exists, people that we consider to be stars, with some exceptions, they're really basically having to choose between hardcore franchise plays, which sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, or year end prestige films that nobody sees because you're not getting the mid budget movie that used to be a star.
- [35:57]
Matt Bellany
Vehicle. So does that. You don't believe that Wuthering Heights will.
- [36:00]
Scott Mendelsohn
Open? Oh, I think Weathering Heights will open huge. But that's a kind of an IP.
- [36:03]
Matt Bellany
Play. Well, that's a Margot Robbie star.
- [36:05]
Scott Mendelsohn
Vehicle. It is a star plus concept, the book plus character. Because if you're, you know, a literary nerd, you know who these people.
- [36:13]
Matt Bellany
Are. Plus smut. It's, it's very steamy.
- [36:16]
Scott Mendelsohn
Apparently. And yeah, the trailer looks awesome. I think Warner Brothers is doing a wonderful job of selling it as an event, even if you don't give a damn about the.
- [36:23]
Matt Bellany
Book. Okay, but I think they're also selling her and Jacob. Absolutely, yes. Okay, so we don't have to get into whether Margot Robbie Barbie and.
- [36:30]
Scott Mendelsohn
Sexy Frankenstein monster in Wuthering.
- [36:33]
Matt Bellany
Heights. Right? We don't have to get into that. But Sony, it just feels like they are scraping the bottom of the IP barrel. Like Karate.
- [36:43]
Scott Mendelsohn
Kids. They have been for 10.
- [36:44]
Matt Bellany
Years. I know they are. I know. And it's like they probably are looking at housemaid and being like, why isn't that ours? Why does Lionsgate have that? I know they bought the book, but like why Sony needs those kinds of movies. You release three or four book adaptations and one of them becomes.
- [37:01]
Scott Mendelsohn
Housemaid. That's what should be the Hollywood studios. Just in a nutshell. You release a, you know, metaphorically Speaking, you release 100,000 South Korean dramas and one becomes Squid.
- [37:10]
Matt Bellany
Game. But they're not going to do that. But you know what I mean? Sony should be owning that mid budget book adaptation like and because when.
- [37:19]
Scott Mendelsohn
They strike there, they do. Well, two things about Sony. A, they deserve all the credit in the world for the anime. They did it early, they got there early and that's going to be a huge shield against declining or inconsistent overseas box office. So by God, good for them. Also good for them for staying out of the streaming wars. They got decided, no, we're going to stay out and sell the.
- [37:37]
Matt Bellany
Guns. That's a business decision. I'm talking about movies that they are greenlighting and releasing. And you know, they, they have had some challenges on the Spider Verse movies. They would have loved to have one of those this year. They're going to have a real honest to God spider man. Movie this next year. And we'll all be talking about how Sony's back, but I feel like they need some kind of infusion. They just bought Peanuts. Maybe they'll have some Charlie Brown movies coming up, but they need. They need some kind of IP infusion or creative strategy that leans in on one of these areas, like the kind of female oriented book movie.
- [38:15]
Scott Mendelsohn
A. Yes. They need more, you know, romantic, whatever you want to call.
- [38:18]
Matt Bellany
It. They did the Reese movie. They wear the crawdads like they. That was a hit for them in.
- [38:23]
Scott Mendelsohn
2122. And if they're going to keep mining existing IP, you know, Jumanji, and even to a lesser extent, Anaconda, which will do about 140, which is pretty good for a live action.
- [38:34]
Matt Bellany
Comedy. So credit on.
- [38:35]
Scott Mendelsohn
Anaconda. Those are films that subverted the ip. Those are films that said we're doing something different and weird and presenting something of value, even if you don't care about the.
- [38:46]
Matt Bellany
Brand. Yeah. All right, Scott. Flop of the year. The candidates are Running Man, Tron Aries, Snow White, Elio and the Alto.
- [38:58]
Scott Mendelsohn
Knights. Tron Aries by a mile. Because we all spent 15 years warning them not to do this. That Tron Legacy was barely a hit in 2010, and only then because it was unique unto itself and had the big Christmas legs going for it. But you make a sequel to Tron legacy 15 years later without the director, without the cast, and with Jared Leto, which even regardless of his online reputation, he's still not a draw. He's never been a.
- [39:26]
Matt Bellany
Star. Yeah. Oscar winner Jared Leto. How dare you. Oscar winner Jared Leto. I know I probably should have included Mickey 17 in there, but, yeah, I believe that's the right.
- [39:34]
Scott Mendelsohn
Choice. At least. Stuff like Mickey 17 and Elio are, like, trying, you know, they're still gonna have more long term.
- [39:41]
Matt Bellany
Value. They tried. I mean, they. It's not. No one tries to make a bad movie, but. But 142 million on a $200 million budget can't happen at Disney. All right, Scott. Advice from Scott Mendelsohn, who sees every movie subvert the ip. That's the big takeaway from the.
- [39:56]
Scott Mendelsohn
Summer. Absolutely. And I will give sort of an extra credit. Whatever. Obviously, Lionsgate overall gets a pretty low grade, but the last three months of Lionsgate gets pretty close to an A because even good fortune didn't work. But those are the kind of swings you need to take, because sometimes they.
- [40:12]
Matt Bellany
Will. Yeah. And Michael's gonna be huge. I think Michael's gonna.
- [40:15]
Scott Mendelsohn
Work. Yes. But if they can make successes like how you see me three, which, okay, it's a two, you know, ninety million dollar movie. They did like is that what 235, give or take. But again, that's more than one battle after another. That's more than the running man, that's more than Tron. That's more than a shit ton of higher profile big movies from bigger studios. If they can get money from that and from the housemaid, then they're not going to just have to rely on the king of kings and the king of pop. And that's very.
- [40:41]
Matt Bellany
Important. Yep. Subverting the IP, that's like Toy Story 5. Making it about an iPad. Amazing. Like great idea. Whoever's idea that was. Great.
- [40:51]
Scott Mendelsohn
Idea. I assume that will be fine just because most Toy Story movies are good.
- [40:55]
Matt Bellany
So. Yeah, I know. All right, thank you, Scott. Appreciate the.
- [40:58]
Scott Mendelsohn
Time. Absolutely. It's been an absolute pleasure. I hope I didn't veer too.
- [41:01]
Matt Bellany
Off. No, go back to whatever screening you're about to go.
- [41:03]
Scott Mendelsohn
To. Thank you very much and take.
- [41:06]
Matt Bellany
Care. We are back with the call sheet. Craig, it's Golden Globes time. We are in full swing awards season. Did you watch any of the critics Choice Awards this past weekend? Let me guess. The clips.
- [41:20]
Craig
Online. The clips. As always, I watched the clips. I saw Jessie Buckley's speech and then I watched her the next day give a Q and A after I saw Hamnet, which I.
- [41:30]
Matt Bellany
Loved. Nobody even knows how to watch the critics Choice Awards. They were on the E. Network and USA network on linear only. They were not live on streaming. Shaking our heads here. The clips. Everyone watches the clips. But the question and we have not seen ratings.
- [41:46]
Craig
Yet. Yeah, I saw Timmy's speech. You know, you see all that.
- [41:48]
Matt Bellany
Stuff. Yeah, of course. The question is how is the fact that the Golden Globes are not the first show this year going to impact the ratings for the Golden Globes? Because typically the first award show of the season, the Sunday we come back is the Golden Globes. They purposefully moved the Globes a week forward because they are greedy. They're owned by two billionaires. They wanted to add extra events. They're doing like a pre show where they put the honorary Oscars. Helen Mirren, Sarah Jessica Parker are getting honorary, not Oscars, Golden Globes and they are doing a separate show for CBS and they're trying to create a week out of it with different parties and a bunch of other nonsense stuff. And consequently they're moving the show a week and they gave the critics choice a great opportunity to come in and be that first show of the year and they took advantage of it. The Critics Choice, also a privately held for profit award show, not a industry guild or anything like that. So these are not like real industry award shows. They are for profit entities. But. But I think it was a huge win for the Critics Choice because they got all the clips and they got everything else out there. That's usually the.
- [43:06]
Craig
Globes. Yeah, I don't think it's going to hurt the Globes that much, to be.
- [43:09]
Matt Bellany
Honest. Well, that's the question. Does the ubiquity of all these Timmy clips and the Chelsea Handler jokes and everything online, does that help or hurt the ratings for the Golden Globes on.
- [43:21]
Craig
Sunday? I don't think it hurts it. I think it just builds momentum and puts the award season in front of people's eyes. And I think when the Golden Globes are on, people are going to watch the clips will populate everyone's social media feeds and it'll be.
- [43:34]
Matt Bellany
Fine. Yeah, I actually agree with you. So last year The Globes got 9.3 million viewers on CBS, which was down from the previous year, but not by much and Nowhere near the 20 million or so that the show would get Pre Covid in the 2010s. The problem, you know, the bigger issue is that it goes up opposite football and it moved from NBC to cbs. You know, obviously we don't have to get into the whole scandal. And the Globes were off the air in 2022 and were taken over by Todd Boley and Jay Penske, two media billionaires and they are now a for profit entity. But I think the ratings are more impacted by the fact that they now have to go up against an NFL playoff game. They moved a week, so it's not the last week of the regular season. They're up against the first round of the playoffs, which is Chargers Patriots. Pretty good.
- [44:28]
Craig
Game. I don't think it's going to make a huge difference because typically, you know, in previous years, Golden Globes is up against the final game of the regular season in the NFL, which is typically a really. It's basically a playoff game. Last year the Golden Globes went up against Lions, Vikings, which was a big game for the one seed that got 28 million viewers, which is basically what a wild card playoff game gets. So I don't really think it's a big deal. It's basically the same thing. Either way, they're kind of going up against a playoff NFL.
- [44:56]
Matt Bellany
Game. Okay, so let's set the line at 9.3 million which was the audience last year? Are you taking the over or the.
- [45:03]
Craig
Under? I'm going to take the.
- [45:05]
Matt Bellany
Over. Oh, you.
- [45:06]
Craig
Are? Only because I think that last year the movies and the, and the people involved were not as big as this year. I mean, you had Timmy both times. You have Leo Caprio, you have Sinners. I, I think the movies are more popular and more interesting and the stars are more popular and more interesting this.
- [45:19]
Matt Bellany
Year. Good point. I don't know how much that necessarily matters. The real question is, does the clips and everything online and that kind of give a boost to the show? I'm going to take the over on 9.3 because of the big data, the new Nielsen measurement of when in doubt, take the over. Yeah, I mean, everything is a record breaking live event now on TV because Nielsen is now counting more people. So they will get their narrative of more viewers. But I don't think it's a reality thing. I think that their Nielsen is just counting more people because of their new measurement tools. That has boosted sports this entire year and it will boost the Golden Globes and probably the Oscars as well. So I'll take the over on 9.3. Not because the show is any better or because the stars are better or.
- [46:17]
Craig
Because. Just because the Nielsen rising tide lifts all.
- [46:20]
Matt Bellany
Ratings. Yeah, I think so. And you know, that's what their clients want and that's what they're getting, so. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Scott Mendelsohn, producer Greg Horlebeck, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this.
- [46:32]
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