The Town with Matthew Belloni - Episode Summary: "The 2025 Summer Blockbuster Power Ranking"
Release Date: May 8, 2025

Introduction

In the latest episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni, host Matthew Belloni, alongside guest Scott Mendelson of Puck and producer Craig Horbacek, delves into the highly anticipated summer movie season of 2025. They analyze and rank 16 blockbuster films based on their confidence in each movie's performance relative to budget and industry expectations. Utilizing a unique confidence scale from 1 to 16, where 16 signifies the highest confidence in a film's success, the trio offers insightful commentary on what to expect from each release.

Summer Movie Season Overview

The summer of 2025 appears cautiously optimistic, with the release of several high-profile franchises and reboots. However, concerns linger about overall box office numbers, especially following last year's dip of approximately 10% domestically. The industry anticipates grosses aligning with the typical expectation of 40% of annual box office during this period, though hits and surprises are still on the horizon.

Notable Insight:

Bill Simmons [05:35]: “Marvel is that weird franchise where even middling numbers would be great for almost every other franchise on the board.”

Top Ranked Films

1. Final Destination: Bloodlines (May 16, Warner Brothers)
   Scott Mendelson: Confidence Rating 13 / Bill Simmons: 15
   The sixth installment in the Final Destination franchise marks its return after a 14-year hiatus. Both hosts express strong confidence in its performance, citing its concept-driven nature and generational nostalgia.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [05:58]: “This is going to overperform. This will likely be the biggest in the Final Destination franchise.”

2. Lilo and Stitch Remake (May 23, Disney)
   Scott Mendelson: 15 / Bill Simmons: 16
   The live-action remake of Disney’s beloved animated film is met with high optimism. The discussion highlights its strong appeal to millennials with young children and its potential to revive the franchise post the underperforming Snow White and Little Mermaid remakes.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [07:40]: “It's the one Disney cartoon from the 2000s that has generational nostalgia and popularity on par with the Katzenberg cartoons.”

3. Jazz World: Rebirth (July 2, Universal Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 12 / Bill Simmons: 13
   As the first movie of the summer, Jurassic World: Rebirth garners the highest confidence rating. Despite previous franchise fatigue, the hosts believe its extensive marketing and new additions like Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali will drive substantial box office numbers.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [28:54]: “I do believe this will be the biggest movie of the summer by default.”

4. Megan 2.0 (June 27, Universal Blumhouse)
   Scott Mendelson: 11 / Bill Simmons: 10
   The sequel to the popular horror franchise Megan is anticipated to build on its predecessor's success, leveraging social media buzz and a strategic release during the July 4th weekend.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [23:37]: “It's the Purge release strategy, too, for Blumhouse. They're going, they're going July 4th weekend.”

5. Superman (July 11, Warner Brothers)
   Scott Mendelson: 6 / Bill Simmons: 11
   This highly awaited reboot of the Superman franchise receives mixed feelings. While recognizing its potential as a fresh take, concerns about its star power and global appeal temper expectations.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [31:01]: “This character is notoriously difficult. It's, you know, he can't be killed. He is not as relatable as some of these other Marvel comic characters.”

Middle Tier Films

6. Ballerina (June 6, Lionsgate)
   Scott Mendelson: 8 / Bill Simmons: 5
   A John Wick spin-off starring Ana de Armas, Ballerina is seen as a potential sleeper hit, though skepticism remains about its integration into the John Wick universe.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [14:37]: “I have this one as a five, partially because I don't know the budget.”

7. How to Train Your Dragon (June 13, Universal Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 12 / Bill Simmons: 13
   A live-action adaptation leverages its established fanbase and visual appeal. The hosts are optimistic about its performance, projecting it as a strong contender in the animated genre.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [16:00]: “This is going to be the kind of late June blockbuster and it will probably trample all over our next movie, which is Elio.”

8. The Naked Gun (July 18, Paramount)
   Scott Mendelson: 5 / Bill Simmons: 12
   A long-awaited sequel featuring Liam Neeson, the revival of the Naked Gun franchise is expected to appeal to fans of the original, though its reception among younger audiences is uncertain.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [39:21]: “I have it as a five. Fair. And you're right, the budget is not huge.”

Lower Ranked Films

9. Smurfs1 (July 18, Sony Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 10 / Bill Simmons: 9
   The latest Smurfs installment targets global audiences with its comedic elements. However, its reliance on past success and potential lack of fresh appeal raise doubts about its box office performance.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [34:11]: “I think this could be a little sleeper. It won't be prestigious.”

10. Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25, Disney, Marvel)
    Scott Mendelson: 3 / Bill Simmons: 2
    As Marvel’s ambitious attempt to reinvigorate the Fantastic Four franchise, this release faces significant skepticism. Previous attempts have struggled, and doubts persist about its ability to establish a new, repeatable magic akin to other Marvel hits.

    Notable Quote:

    Bill Simmons [36:05]: “We've seen this movie and Fox made that mistake in 2019 where they thought that regular audiences didn't like the Last Stand.”

Special Mention:

• Weapons (August, Warner Brothers)
  While not part of the initial 16, Weapons emerges as a promising sleeper hit with positive buzz and potential to boost Warner’s summer lineup.

  Notable Quote:

  Scott Mendelson [45:47]: “There’s a lot of good buzz about that movie. People seem to think it’s going to be very good.”

Additional Discussions

Beyond the movie rankings, the hosts touch upon the Golden Globes' recent decision to add a "Best Podcast" category, viewing it as a strategic but potentially superficial move aimed at increasing engagement rather than recognizing artistic merit.

Notable Quote:

Scott Mendelson [46:32]: “They think that they can get some additional entrance fees from a lot of different people who think their podcasts are great.”

Conclusion

As the summer of 2025 unfolds, The Town with Matthew Belloni provides listeners with a comprehensive analysis of anticipated blockbusters. While some films like Final Destination: Bloodlines and the Lilo and Stitch remake stand out as top contenders, others face significant hurdles. The hosts emphasize the importance of genuine content over mere franchise returns, highlighting the delicate balance studios must maintain to capture audiences in an evolving cinematic landscape.

Looking Ahead: The trio commits to revisiting their confidence ratings post-summer to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions, underscoring the dynamic nature of the film industry.

Final Quote:

Scott Mendelson [45:22]: “We will come back at the end of the summer and we will account for our picks.”

Stay tuned to The Town with Matthew Belloni for more insider insights and exclusive Hollywood reporting.