The 2025 Summer Blockbuster Power Ranking

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni - Episode Summary: "The 2025 Summer Blockbuster Power Ranking"
Release Date: May 8, 2025

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Introduction

In the latest episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni, host Matthew Belloni, alongside guest Scott Mendelson of Puck and producer Craig Horbacek, delves into the highly anticipated summer movie season of 2025. They analyze and rank 16 blockbuster films based on their confidence in each movie's performance relative to budget and industry expectations. Utilizing a unique confidence scale from 1 to 16, where 16 signifies the highest confidence in a film's success, the trio offers insightful commentary on what to expect from each release.

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Summer Movie Season Overview

The summer of 2025 appears cautiously optimistic, with the release of several high-profile franchises and reboots. However, concerns linger about overall box office numbers, especially following last year's dip of approximately 10% domestically. The industry anticipates grosses aligning with the typical expectation of 40% of annual box office during this period, though hits and surprises are still on the horizon.

Notable Insight:

Bill Simmons [05:35]: “Marvel is that weird franchise where even middling numbers would be great for almost every other franchise on the board.”

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Top Ranked Films

1. Final Destination: Bloodlines (May 16, Warner Brothers)
   Scott Mendelson: Confidence Rating 13 / Bill Simmons: 15
   The sixth installment in the Final Destination franchise marks its return after a 14-year hiatus. Both hosts express strong confidence in its performance, citing its concept-driven nature and generational nostalgia.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [05:58]: “This is going to overperform. This will likely be the biggest in the Final Destination franchise.”

2. Lilo and Stitch Remake (May 23, Disney)
   Scott Mendelson: 15 / Bill Simmons: 16
   The live-action remake of Disney’s beloved animated film is met with high optimism. The discussion highlights its strong appeal to millennials with young children and its potential to revive the franchise post the underperforming Snow White and Little Mermaid remakes.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [07:40]: “It's the one Disney cartoon from the 2000s that has generational nostalgia and popularity on par with the Katzenberg cartoons.”

3. Jazz World: Rebirth (July 2, Universal Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 12 / Bill Simmons: 13
   As the first movie of the summer, Jurassic World: Rebirth garners the highest confidence rating. Despite previous franchise fatigue, the hosts believe its extensive marketing and new additions like Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali will drive substantial box office numbers.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [28:54]: “I do believe this will be the biggest movie of the summer by default.”

4. Megan 2.0 (June 27, Universal Blumhouse)
   Scott Mendelson: 11 / Bill Simmons: 10
   The sequel to the popular horror franchise Megan is anticipated to build on its predecessor's success, leveraging social media buzz and a strategic release during the July 4th weekend.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [23:37]: “It's the Purge release strategy, too, for Blumhouse. They're going, they're going July 4th weekend.”

5. Superman (July 11, Warner Brothers)
   Scott Mendelson: 6 / Bill Simmons: 11
   This highly awaited reboot of the Superman franchise receives mixed feelings. While recognizing its potential as a fresh take, concerns about its star power and global appeal temper expectations.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [31:01]: “This character is notoriously difficult. It's, you know, he can't be killed. He is not as relatable as some of these other Marvel comic characters.”

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Middle Tier Films

6. Ballerina (June 6, Lionsgate)
   Scott Mendelson: 8 / Bill Simmons: 5
   A John Wick spin-off starring Ana de Armas, Ballerina is seen as a potential sleeper hit, though skepticism remains about its integration into the John Wick universe.

   Notable Quote:

   Bill Simmons [14:37]: “I have this one as a five, partially because I don't know the budget.”

7. How to Train Your Dragon (June 13, Universal Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 12 / Bill Simmons: 13
   A live-action adaptation leverages its established fanbase and visual appeal. The hosts are optimistic about its performance, projecting it as a strong contender in the animated genre.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [16:00]: “This is going to be the kind of late June blockbuster and it will probably trample all over our next movie, which is Elio.”

8. The Naked Gun (July 18, Paramount)
   Scott Mendelson: 5 / Bill Simmons: 12
   A long-awaited sequel featuring Liam Neeson, the revival of the Naked Gun franchise is expected to appeal to fans of the original, though its reception among younger audiences is uncertain.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [39:21]: “I have it as a five. Fair. And you're right, the budget is not huge.”

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Lower Ranked Films

9. Smurfs1 (July 18, Sony Pictures)
   Scott Mendelson: 10 / Bill Simmons: 9
   The latest Smurfs installment targets global audiences with its comedic elements. However, its reliance on past success and potential lack of fresh appeal raise doubts about its box office performance.

   Notable Quote:

   Scott Mendelson [34:11]: “I think this could be a little sleeper. It won't be prestigious.”

10. Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25, Disney, Marvel)
    Scott Mendelson: 3 / Bill Simmons: 2
    As Marvel’s ambitious attempt to reinvigorate the Fantastic Four franchise, this release faces significant skepticism. Previous attempts have struggled, and doubts persist about its ability to establish a new, repeatable magic akin to other Marvel hits.

    Notable Quote:

    Bill Simmons [36:05]: “We've seen this movie and Fox made that mistake in 2019 where they thought that regular audiences didn't like the Last Stand.”

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Special Mention:

• Weapons (August, Warner Brothers)
  While not part of the initial 16, Weapons emerges as a promising sleeper hit with positive buzz and potential to boost Warner’s summer lineup.

  Notable Quote:

  Scott Mendelson [45:47]: “There’s a lot of good buzz about that movie. People seem to think it’s going to be very good.”

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Additional Discussions

Beyond the movie rankings, the hosts touch upon the Golden Globes' recent decision to add a "Best Podcast" category, viewing it as a strategic but potentially superficial move aimed at increasing engagement rather than recognizing artistic merit.

Notable Quote:

Scott Mendelson [46:32]: “They think that they can get some additional entrance fees from a lot of different people who think their podcasts are great.”

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Conclusion

As the summer of 2025 unfolds, The Town with Matthew Belloni provides listeners with a comprehensive analysis of anticipated blockbusters. While some films like Final Destination: Bloodlines and the Lilo and Stitch remake stand out as top contenders, others face significant hurdles. The hosts emphasize the importance of genuine content over mere franchise returns, highlighting the delicate balance studios must maintain to capture audiences in an evolving cinematic landscape.

Looking Ahead: The trio commits to revisiting their confidence ratings post-summer to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions, underscoring the dynamic nature of the film industry.

Final Quote:

Scott Mendelson [45:22]: “We will come back at the end of the summer and we will account for our picks.”

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Stay tuned to The Town with Matthew Belloni for more insider insights and exclusive Hollywood reporting.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

This is Bill Simmons.

[Scott Mendelson]

I am thrilled to announce our newest YouTube channel. It's called Ringer Movies. If you're a fan of our movie coverage here at the Ringer, then you're in luck because every episode of the Rewatchable is in the big Picture now on YouTube. Like Bill said, Ringer Movies will feature full episodes of my show the Big Picture, the rewatchables as well as special live episodes, deep dives into movie history and a bunch of other fun stuff featuring other movie loving Ringer personalities. Search ringer movies on YouTube and experience the joy of Chris Ryan impersonating Wayne Jenkins on camera. This episode of the Town is brought to you by MAX Presenting Hacks for your Emmy consideration. Starring Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, the new season picks up with Deborah Vance's late night show finally in production and Ava Daniels stepping in as head writer. To Deborah's dismay, their ever complicated relationship is pushed to new limits as they clash over creative direction and get entangled in blackmail and betrayal. Don't miss the series Slate says has never been better. Emmy eligible for Outstanding Comedy Series and all other categories now streaming on max. Today's episode is brought to you by Peacock presenting the Day of the Jackal for your Emmy consideration. Eddie Redmayne and Lashana lynch star in the original drama series Variety calls an exhilarating thriller. The series follows a lone assassin and an intelligence officer in a cat and mouse chase across Europe. The Day of the Jackal is streaming now only on Peacock. It is Thursday, May 8. Last weekend, Thunderbolts kicked off the summer movie season with 74 million domestic at the box office, about 160 worldwide. Okay for a new superhero movie, but nowhere near the usual May Marvel movies of the past. And I'm afraid we're looking at another potentially middling summer season after last year's May through Labor Day numbers were down about 10% domestically from 2023. Remember, the industry can typically expect to gross about 40% of its annual box office during this period. There will be hits, of course. Big ones. Another Jurassic is coming. Disney has a Lilo and Stitch remake. Lots of horror and kids stuff. I'm very curious what a Mission Impossible movie looks like when it costs well over $300 million today. I've got Scott Mendelson in here for our traditional summer movie confidence scale episode. Scott's a box office expert at Puck where I work, and he has his own substack about box office. He's been polling his sources, as have I. We're going to add a twist this Year, we're going to go through 16 of the biggest summer titles and give a number on the confidence scale of how confident we are that the movie will perform in relation to its budget and industry expectations. Except instead of rating every movie 1 through 10, as we've done through the past, we're going to rank these titles 1 through 16. Actually, 16 through 1, meaning we've got to pick 16 down to 1. How these movies will perform in relation to their expectations, not just whether a title will be profitable, but whether it'll be as profitable as the studio needs it to be this summer. Got it. Craig's going to make sure we're honest here. It's the summer movie confidence scale, 2025 edition from the ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Scott Mendelsohn, our resident box office expert. How you doing, Scott?

[Bill Simmons]

I'm doing pretty well. Thank you for having me on. As always, it's a pleasure.

[Scott Mendelson]

No problem. Were you impressed? Not impressed by the Thunderbolts performance this past weekend? I was not impressed.

[Bill Simmons]

I was unimpressed. But that doesn't mean it's a disaster. Marvel is that weird franchise where even middling numbers would be great for almost every other franchise on the board.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know, but that's not why they make these movies. They don't make them to do 400, 500 million worldwide. That's not their business.

[Bill Simmons]

I agree. I think they really, all due respect, shot themselves in the foot with all the Disney shows of the last few years, diluted the brands, made them less special. And the previous phase basically ran into the issue where the Disney plus shows became homework. So even general audiences felt like, this is a research project. This is not fun. They seem to be stepping away from that. But there's still work to be done.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. Bob Iger said yesterday that he's super excited about the Marvel film slate and they're very focused on being a film company now. So he. He agrees with you.

[Bill Simmons]

I think the same Bob Iger that flooded the zone with Disney plus shows right before he left.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, he. Yes, he would. He would argue that was a Chapek thing, but I agree with you. He put that into motion. Yes. Okay, enough about that. We are going to go through the movies and we're going to one by one, assign our confidence number. This is not a box office ranking. This is a confidence ranking. This is kind of a volume meter of our own excitement. So sixteen is the movie we are most excited about. One is the movie that we are least excited about and we think will fail.

[Craig Horbacek]

Yeah. When you, when you say excited, you don't mean personally, you mean confident.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, no, no. I don't get my, my taste doesn't matter. As everyone knows on this show, it is what I'm excited about as a performer financially.

[Bill Simmons]

Yes. And as someone who banned the Force Awakens, sometimes the very reason I don't like a film is the reason it becomes a blockbuster.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes. You see everything, though. That's. I do think about you. You go to everything. Like, I don't see the horror movies, I don't see a lot of the Marvel stuff, but you see everything. All right, movie number one this weekend. Oh, we're going to go by the calendar here. So we're going to start with May 16 this weekend. The big movie, Final Destination. Bloodlines, new line, Warner Brothers release, sixth in the series. It's the first one since 2011. We talked about this on the show this week. Kind of amazing. The biggest ever in the franchise did 186 million worldwide. What do we think?

[Bill Simmons]

I. In terms of confidence that it will match or exceed expectations? A 15.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you're going 15. See, I'm, I'm going 13. I agree with you though. This is going to overperform. This will likely be the biggest in the Final Destination franchise, not adjusted for inflation. Maybe the biggest horror hit of the summer if Megan 2.0 doesn't catch the algorithm again or the zombie movie 28 years later doesn't do well. But I think this is going to overperform. You. You're a little more confident than me, though.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it just, it's tracking pretty well and I don't know the budget, but I can't imagine they spent more than 30 on this.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, I bet they did. I mean, it's a Warner movie, but. Yeah, I don't know the exact budget either, but certainly not more than 50.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, yeah. And it is, yes, it's, you know, IP for IP sake. It's generational nostalgia. But it's a concept driven franchise. Even if you're not gung ho about Final Destination as a brand, you younger moviegoer say, oh, this is pretty people getting Rube Goldberg to death. I am interested in seeing that.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes. You know what it is and you know what to expect. It's a. It's shocking. They haven't gone back to the well for 14 years on this one. So we are both very confident. You got it as 15, I've got it as 13. Let's just move on now. Here's my number 15 confidence movie. May 23rd. Lilo and Stitch from Disney. I am on record in our box office draft earlier this year as being skeptical about this one. I am going to change my tune on this. I think it is going to be a pretty massive hit. I have it as 15 on the confidence scale, which is my second most confident movie of the summer.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I do not think it's going to be the biggest movie of the summer. It's no.

[Scott Mendelson]

But maybe the second biggest.

[Bill Simmons]

It's domestically. It's entirely possible. I'm giving it a 16, by the way. That's the one I'm most confident.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you're most confident it will overperform. Well then why are you saying it's not going to be the biggest movie this summer? That would be the over performance for this movie. A billion dollars.

[Bill Simmons]

Because the one that I think could be the biggest movie, at least domestically is what I'm not super confident it might happen.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, keep in mind we are, we are going global on this. This is, this should not just be domestic.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the one Disney cartoon from the 2000s that has generational nostalgia and popularity on, on par with the Katzenberg cartoons.

[Scott Mendelson]

For millennials, I, I would argue that for my generation, young Gen X. Gen X people like.

[Bill Simmons]

Yes.

[Scott Mendelson]

Less popular. But you know what, Millennials are the ones with young kids now and.

[Bill Simmons]

Exactly.

[Scott Mendelson]

And I think, you know, the original did 273 million worldwide in 2002. The only potential problems here is that it's coming off of Snow White and Little Mermaid, both of which did not perform to expectations. Snow White kind of a disaster. And Tom Cruise sucked up all the IMAX screens. So it's not going to get the full premium large format push that it might have gotten if it were on a different date.

[Bill Simmons]

But this is one that it's a very well liked movie. It's considered probably the best Disney cartoon of the 2000s and isn't a Pixar film. And because it's basically a character centric human focused melodrama with basically one special effects character, it's going to make more sense in live action than some of the other stuff they've been doing in the last few years, I can't see this not opening well and legging out for a while now.

[Scott Mendelson]

Moving on to Mission Impossible, the final reckoning 33 globally.

[Bill Simmons]

Especially now. That's not saying it's going to flop or it's going to be bad. I'm assuming it will be good. Even though I didn't like the last one. But whatever that happens, the film is very expensive, as you know.

[Scott Mendelson]

Very expensive. Perhaps among the most expensive movies ever made.

[Bill Simmons]

Yes. And the issue with Dead Reckoning was not just that it lost PLF screens, and it's not just that Barbenheimer sucked all the oxygen out of the room. It made about $575 million worldwide, compared to between 685 and 792 for the three previous sequels. And most of that downturn is from what it didn't make in China and Russia compared to what it might have expected in the 2010s. And that's a macro issue. And even if it's the best film in the franchise, that's not going to change that much.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know I have it at 4. I'm equally not confident in this one. Not that it won't do four or $500 million, but that's not enough. The last one did 571 and it didn't have the IMAX screens. This one does have imax. This one. Cruz is going to do a little more press for this one than he did for the last one. I think he knows that he's got to hustle a little more. They're trying to endgame it. It's the marketing by positioning it as the final. We know it's probably not the final, but yeah, I'm just not confident in this one at all.

[Bill Simmons]

Even if the film loses money in theatrical or whatever, it is still more long term valuable for that franchise to have a series finale that sticks to landing even at short term loss versus something like Fantastic Beasts or Divergent or even Furious. Yeah, exactly. It can't be a cliffhanger.

[Scott Mendelson]

If the narrative on this one is that it was good and that it slightly overperformed expectations, then in three years, whatever, they can do another one or they can finally get the Paramount plus Mission Impossible show that they've always wanted.

[Bill Simmons]

Tom Cruise that evil in the world?

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes, exactly. All right, that's the Memorial Day weekend showdown. Let's go to the next week. May 30, Karate Kid Legends from Sony Pictures. This is my pick for the bomb in the summer. This is a one from me. I am the least confident in this movie. I have racked my brain and I kind of don't know who this movie.

[Bill Simmons]

Is for not knowing how much it costs. But it's Sony, so I'm guessing they played Moneyball. I'm going with an 8, which is right in the middle of the pack. As much as I roll my eyes at the Notion of this sequel to Karate Kid. Sequel to The Karate Kid rem the way 15 years ago was a huge hit, partially because it appealed to kids that had no, you know, interest in the franchise, which is how these are supposed to be.

[Scott Mendelson]

It's the 2010 reboot that was with Jaden Smith. It did 360 million worldwide. And I remember when it came out, I was like, holy cow. It opened at, like, 55 million. I was like, what, A Karate Kid Legacy sequel? No, it wasn't a sequel. It was a reboot.

[Bill Simmons]

No, it was a remake. It had no connection to the original.

[Scott Mendelson]

Right.

[Bill Simmons]

And that summer, it was, like, the only film for the first half of the summer that was sold as, this is a good movie. This isn't just some franchise or thing that, you know. And the sub. That summer was so bad that, like, I was talking Oscars for Jackie Chan, but whatever.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. No, it.

[Bill Simmons]

It.

[Scott Mendelson]

Maybe this movie is good. I. The trailer does not look good. And the problem I have is that Karate Kid has always been sort of an earnest franchise. Then they went comedy on tv, and now they're trying to pivot back to serious. Like, that never works.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, Oprah Kai, it started out as this midlife crisis comedy, and then he went pretty hard into the CW soap opera. In a good way. I think it's.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, but it's still a comedy. That's still the dojo and the, you know, Johnny. Johnny's. Johnny's the basically the main character of. Of Cobra Kai. And that is not the tone of the materials for Karate Kid legends. Let's just say that.

[Bill Simmons]

And the only reason I'm slightly more bullish by default is that it looks fine. It looks decent. Jackie Chan is, you know, giving an interesting performance. And do I think it's gonna be a blockbuster? No. But assuming it didn't cost a fortune, I'm sure it will. I think it will do what it needs to do.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay. 71 years old, Jackie Chan doing karate moves.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Scott Mendelson]

All right, you know what? I know he's, like, only slightly older than. Than Daniel Ralph Macchio. All right, let's move on. June 6th, ballerina from Lionsgate. I have this. This is the John Wick spin off with Craig's girl on it to Armis. I have it at 8 on the confidence scale right in the middle. I was pleasantly surprised by the footage at Cinemacon. I am not a John Wick franchise person. I have actually never seen a John Wick movie in its entirety.

[Craig Horbacek]

Matt, come on.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know, Craig. I know you can't believe that, but the last John Wick did 440 million worldwide in 2023. Is half of that considered a success for this movie?

[Bill Simmons]

I have this one as a five, partially because I don't know the budget. I know there were extensive reshoots all last year.

[Scott Mendelson]

They basically inserted Keanu a bunch more.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah. And this is going to be. Even though it looks good, I was very impressed by the footage at Cinemacon. This is going to be a trust but verify at best because on paper it feels like a catch. It, it feels like frankly, a catchment that should have come out two or three years ago right after Knives out. But if it justifies itself artistically as a polished, well made, well constructed action adventure film with Ananda Armas kicking ass and looking good that just happens to be in the John Wick universe, then yes, it could do well. But I don't know for sure that that's what it's going to be.

[Scott Mendelson]

I am a little more bullish, I think only because it could do foreign on this one. John Wick is a foreign franchise as well. It is.

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, the first three, the first two did 50 50. The fourth one was the first one to over and slightly over index overseas.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay. And so yeah, I, I, I just think we got to put this one right in the middle of, of the confidence scale.

[Craig Horbacek]

Scott, what did you give it?

[Bill Simmons]

A5, but I hope I'm wrong.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you're less confident than me. Okay, maybe I just, maybe I'm biased by Ana de Armas. She's really working it, man. The Tom Cruise relationship really is. That's gotta help. That's gotta help. I hope it helps both.

[Bill Simmons]

Is that real though?

[Scott Mendelson]

I mean, okay, I'm not gonna say whether it's real or not.

[Bill Simmons]

Let me rephrase that. Is that real news?

[Scott Mendelson]

I'm just gonna say that both of them have movies coming out this summer. That's all I will say. How to train your dragon. June 13, Universal Pictures. Where is this on the confidence scale for you?

[Bill Simmons]

13.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you're bullish. I have it at 12. I have it at 12 as well. I think this is going to work.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I mean, I, the only thing.

[Scott Mendelson]

Is that the budget is high. They spent a lot of money on this movie. I've heard 200 million. They're going to probably say less than that. They are giving it a full Universal marketing push for this. Not quite the wicked treatment, but they are giving it a big push. You know, the question for this one is, are the comps for this, the Disney remakes that have often gotten into the high nine figures, sometimes a billion dollars or the comps for this, the 500 million that the original how to Train youn Dragon made over a decade ago.

[Bill Simmons]

I think adjusted for inflation and what have you. The optimistic scenario is Maleficent, which did like 760 in 2014. I have seen this and I know we're under embargoes. I'm going to be very careful what I say. It is very much what people who want a Gus Van Sant version remake of how to Train youn Dragon will want.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, you're saying that like the psycho remake, basically, it's shot for shot.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, it's very handsomely staged, it's very well made, it's very well acted. I think there's a chance it could all as a Lord of the Rings for kids, for those who aren't as familiar with the ip. But I think it will do the job in giving people a How to Train youn Dragon remake and a film that on its own merits is a big, splashy medieval action fantasy.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. The challenge here is that it may not feel fresh or new enough. Like I asked my kid, who's 9, if he wanted to see it and he said he's already seen it and he was referring to the animated movie. So at least to him, nothing's new about this. And it is a dragon. So obviously it's a CGI animation creation. So it's not like, you know, it's a full live action remake. But I think there will be enough here. I think this will become the kind of late June blockbuster and it will probably trample all over our next movie, which is Elio. I've been told by multiple people it is ELIO. Not ELIO. June 20, Disney Pixar. What do we think?

[Bill Simmons]

6 and it breaks my heart to.

[Scott Mendelson]

Say that, oh, you're more generous than me. I have it at two Fair. This is my. I think this is not going to work. I think there is a reason this was pushed a year. The other Disney movies that were pushed a year, Captain America, Brave New World, and Snow White, both significantly underperformed. And this one, I think is a problem child for Disney. So I'm going to say two, this is my second least confident movie of the summer.

[Bill Simmons]

I cannot speak to its quality.

[Scott Mendelson]

No, but it looks like lesser Pixar. It just does.

[Bill Simmons]

But unlike Elemental, which I liked it, and whatever, this has a pretty clear hook. A young boy who loves aliens gets abducted by aliens and adventures ensue.

[Scott Mendelson]

See, I think the opposite. I think Elemental had a very clear high concept to it. You know, polar opposites fall in love. That's, that's a Pixar concept. And they happen to be fire and water. Like what is this? This feels to me like a Johnny Astronaut movie. Like something you might watch on Saturday morning in the 90s.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I mean I will say the last trailer works for me.

[Scott Mendelson]

Keep in mind neither of us has seen this. We do not know quality. We are going off of the materials they've put out and the machinations of the release schedule.

[Bill Simmons]

The hope is that the people that have been showing up for Elemental after opening weekend remembered, hey, I like seeing these in a theater. And then they did likewise to Moana 2 and Inside Out 2, both sequels. And Moana's not Pixar, but whatever.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, those are franchises.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but this will have some goodwill. So the hope is that it will play like what used to be a Pixar original in the 2000s and 2010s which is over under 600 worldwide. Because here's the thing.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, Elemental only got to 500 and that was a stretch. And it did like 35 million in South Korea or something.

[Bill Simmons]

Yes, it underwhelmed in North America even with the legs. But 345 overseas is basically are for the course for a non breakout but successful Pixar original in the good old days. So the hope is that this gets to 350 overseas. It plays a little bit like a Pixar movie. Domestically over under 200 and budget notwithstanding, that's enough.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, budget. We haven't talked about the budget. It's probably extremely high, especially since they held it for a year and retooled it. So yeah, I think Bob Iger will be very happy when this one is in the rear view mirror next 28 years later, June 20, Sony Pictures where you got this one?

[Bill Simmons]

I mean again, I do not know the budget. I've heard.

[Scott Mendelson]

No, no, it's not it. So Sony bought this movie and agreed to pay about $75 million for this and that. But that's not necessarily the budget. That's. That's. It's one of those packages where the filmmakers had the rights and they shopped it around town. Bunch of studios bid on this. Sony got it agreed to to make multiple movies. They're going to do two of them and if they're successful they'll do a third. And this was, and this is about sort of mid range zombie horror. 75 is, is the package price. I have this at 9. I think this is right in the middle. This will probably be a hit. Most people think it's going to be a hit. The trailer was great. It will, I think, open bigger than Elio on the same weekend, which would be quite a humbling moment for Pixar, I think it's got Danny Boyle directing. Great trailer. I think, you know, the originals, which are old now, never did more than 100 million worldwide. So this will almost certainly gross more than the originals, not adjusted for inflation.

[Bill Simmons]

My relative bearishness is this could be a situation if it's IP for the sake of ip, where nobody outside of the Internet bubble cares.

[Scott Mendelson]

Maybe.

[Bill Simmons]

We'll see.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. But zombies very hot right now.

[Bill Simmons]

We'll see. Again, it's one of those.

[Scott Mendelson]

No response to that.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, it's one of those franchises that depresses me because it was popular 20 years ago, because it was new, fresh and exciting, and now it's bringing bought back because it's not.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know. And. And Danny Boyle is going back to the. Well, because they all know there's money to be made here.

[Bill Simmons]

Give that one a seven.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay. All right. I've got it at nine. You've got it at seven. Speaking of crass cash grabs, Megan 2.0 arrives June 27th from Universal Blumhouse. This is less than two years after the original did 180 million in early 2023. What do we think?

[Bill Simmons]

10? I assume they didn't spend a fortune, even though it looks like there's more money on screen than the first one.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, I have it at 11. I think this is going to work.

[Bill Simmons]

It looks fun. They're doing the Terminator 2 demolition man model, which is always a fun sequel.

[Scott Mendelson]

The villain from the first one must turn good to battle an even more sinister Megan doll.

[Bill Simmons]

And I assume you've seen the trailer. They're leaning into the camp factor. I mean, I would like to think this will do better than the first one. It's sort of a breakout sequel because everybody saw and liked the first one. The only reason why it might not is because the first one open so well that it almost like opened like a sequel, if that makes any sense.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, it caught fire on TikTok and social media, and they're trying to recreate that again. You know, you never know whether. Whether the Internet will turn on it.

[Bill Simmons]

This is the good news is that the first one was a good movie. It worked on its own terms as a. You can't use technology to hide from bad feelings. And this is a nice thing of a new franchise that was initially aimed at Today's Kids. And that's what I want to see in the marketplace.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay, so you're, you're high on this. I've got it at 11 as well. It's the purge release strategy, too, for Blumhouse. They're going, they're going July 4th weekend.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Scott Mendelson]

And it's up against the big question for me of the summer F1, June 27, an Apple movie. They spent $300 million on the package for this one Warner Brothers releasing in theaters. I've got it as a seven, mostly because I don't know what to make of this. I don't know whether it's going to be Ford versus Ferrari, which grossed just 225 million worldwide in 2019, or whether this is going to be Top Gun Maverick. Joseph Kaczynski, big budget, global. Everyone around the world see, sees this, know Brad Pitt, Big dad energy for this one. I, I, I just can't make. I don't know what's going to happen on this one. Even though I have it in my box office draft.

[Bill Simmons]

I give this one a four.

[Scott Mendelson]

Ooh. You are less confident than me. You think it's Ford versus Ferrari with a prettier face.

[Bill Simmons]

I do. Here's why. Yes, they're playing the Top Gun Maverick model, but Top Gun Maverick had the marquee character of Maverick.

[Scott Mendelson]

That's Top Gun.

[Bill Simmons]

This is just Brad Pitt as a guy.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, but you don't think the F1, intellectual property, appeal, marketing, culture, all of it is going to sell this globally?

[Bill Simmons]

It could, and I might be wrong, but I don't know. And I'm old enough to remember Driven, let alone F1. In the summer of 2001. Driven was supposed to be the big racing movie, not Fast and Furious, but it turned out to be the blown.

[Scott Mendelson]

Away of summer 2001, days of thunder. This is probably not. That was a different area. Yeah. I just don't know. I have no idea. I will admit that. I will admit that. And I am not excited for this movie.

[Bill Simmons]

No.

[Scott Mendelson]

And I have, you know, I tend to go see the big dad movies. I just, I don't know this. I think this is the most important movie of the summer. If this does not work and Apple is embarrassed by how much they spent on this and the whole global push for this and Tim Cook talking about it, they may not do this again. So if there's one movie the industry should be rallying around this summer, it's probably F1.

[Bill Simmons]

I'm inclined to agree. And it's unfortunate because, I mean, Argylle was exactly the kind of bad idea in theory that Hollywood had been doing. So like, why are the tech companies making the same mistakes Hollywood is?

[Scott Mendelson]

This episode is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting the Diplomat from writer and creator Deborah Kahn, Keri Russell and Rufus Sewell return, with Allison Janney joining in the explosive second season as US Ambassador Kate Wyler navigates high stakes diplomacy and a fraught marriage in search of the truth. The Guardian lauds the Diplomat a masterclass in storytelling and Indiewire hails it one of the best shows of the year. For your Emmy consideration, this episode is brought to you by Focus Features An Indian Paintbrush Presenting the Phoenician Scheme, an epic comedy adventure from director Wes Anderson. Starring Benicio Del Toro, Mia Threpleton, Michael Cera and an all star cast follow Zsaza Korda as he races to survive assassinations, win back his daughter and pull off the scheme of a lifetime. The Phoenician scheme rated PG 13. Only in theaters Friday. Let's go to the next week. July 2nd. Jurassic World. Rebirth, Universal Pictures. I got this. At 16, this is going to be the biggest hit of the summer. It sort of saddens me to say that because it is a crass IP play where a couple years ago they looked at their calendar for this summer and they're like, oh shit, we have nothing. There's no illumination. There's no fast. What are we going to do? And they're like, how fast can we get a Jurassic World movie into production? Even though the last one sort of petered out the franchise, which I thought they would take a break for a while. Nope. Here we go. Rebirth. Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, New Dinosaurs, Kids in Trouble, Exotic Island. Same playbook.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I mean, I do believe this will be the biggest movie of the summer by default.

[Scott Mendelson]

Will it get to a billion? Because Dominion got to a billion, but barely in 2022 and that included 157 million in China, which probably will not happen this time.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, but even if it oh no, only does 750, there aren't very many movies this summer. Or even, optimistically, 750 looks like plausible. So.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you don't think we're going to have a billion dollar grocer this summer?

[Bill Simmons]

We might not.

[Scott Mendelson]

Wow. Something will catch fire. Something will overperform. I think we will.

[Bill Simmons]

You know, I'm giving this a 14 only because, you know, theoretically the damage from Dominion not being very good could be real enough to to push down general interest to again, only 800 million. Oh no. But still, otherwise, yeah it's gonna be huge. The only question is, a, how huge? And B, will it repair any damage done from the last film?

[Scott Mendelson]

That's the thing is my. My hope is that they recognized that the past two Jurassic World movies were both bad and that they need to get this one right. And the trailer was good. Cinemacon liked it. It was scary.

[Bill Simmons]

But the second trailer was much better than the first.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, it was a lot of the same stuff.

[Bill Simmons]

And that's. That's a concern that, you know, and this leads into the next film. We're seeing a lot of franchises, you know, old IP coming back and that. Films that feel like glorified remakes of a prior installment of that franchise. In this case, Sight Unseen. Jurassic World Rebirth kind of feels like Jurassic Park 3.2.0.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, I never even saw that one, so maybe that'll be new to me. Let's move on. Superman, July 11th. Warner Brothers. Where you got this one? This is the question of the summer. The question mark of the summer.

[Bill Simmons]

Eleven is my number.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, wow. You're more confident than me. I have it as a six.

[Bill Simmons]

I have been bearish on Superman as a property for 15 years. I believe that Superman is a character that is closer to the. Just because we've heard of him doesn't mean we want to see a movie about him. Scale of like a Peter Pan or a King Arthur or a Robin Hood or a.

[Scott Mendelson]

Then why are you bullish?

[Bill Simmons]

Well, here's why. Because it is one of the. It is the only new old IP that feels like a new movie that we're getting this summer. It does not feel like a reaction the Daughter films or Bryan Singer's picture or Zack Snyder's picture. This feels by default newer than any different from any Superman movie we've gotten so far. So by default, this is the closest thing we've got this summer to a new to cinema franchise. Biggie.

[Scott Mendelson]

Hmm. I would argue Fantastic Four feels a little newer to me, but. But we'll get to that. Man of steel got to 670 worldwide in 2013 and that was considered success, but not a billion. This character is notoriously difficult. It's, you know, he can't be killed. He is not as relatable as some of these other Marvel comic characters. James Gunn, talented filmmaker, but you know, this mix of genres in the trailers where it's got wacky aliens, but it's also got the earnest stuff. There's a cute dog. We'll see. There's no real stars in this movie either. That's a weird choice. They made like man of Steel. They surrounded Henry Cavill with Kevin Costner and Amy Adams and Diane Lane and like people that were kind of meaningful at the time for audiences. I don't know about Diane Lane, but this one, like, how meaningful is Rachel Brosnahan or Nick Holt? You know, I'm not sure.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, I think that sort of speaks to a problem with Hollywood. They've been so bad about making new movie stars that the people that might have aged up to be gravitas worthy 12 years later, General audiences don't care.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, we'll see. All right, Smurfs July 18th. Craig, I'm going to quiz you on something. Sony made three Smurfs movies in the 2010s. Craig, how much did the 2011 Smurfs movie make worldwide?

[Craig Horbacek]

I bet you it is way higher than I think it is. Probably like $500 million.

[Scott Mendelson]

It is 563 million worldwide in 2011.

[Craig Horbacek]

This is like when I found out that the Alvin and the Chipmunks movie made like a billion dollars.

[Bill Simmons]

450.

[Scott Mendelson]

Those were good times, man. Those were good times. All right, so what is your confidence level for Smurfs1? Oh, you think Smurfs is going to flop? I am not in that boat. I am going 10 for Smurfs. I think the lack of kids product, no illumination movie in that July corridor. I think that Elio is going to flop in June. I think this could be a little sleeper. It won't be prestigious.

[Bill Simmons]

That's fair.

[Scott Mendelson]

Rihanna will do her thing marketing wise and that this thing is probably not going to be on the high end of animated budgets and could get to 3, 4, maybe even 500 million.

[Bill Simmons]

Here's my issue. First of all, Smers was the stereotypical example of what I like to call folks who are only curious the first time they showed up, up in droves in 2011 because the very idea of a live action Smurfs movie was kind of interesting. They showed up. They did not show up anywhere near as big for Smurfs2. They did not show up barely at all for the cartoon Smurfs. And this is basically a remake of the 2011 movie. So you're not even getting a new movie out of it.

[Scott Mendelson]

Well, Chris Miller. Chris Miller of Lord and Miller is directing this one. Co directing.

[Bill Simmons]

He's directing.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, I know. I was surprised. Okay, I know.

[Bill Simmons]

But kids won't care about that.

[Craig Horbacek]

And he's not co directing.

[Bill Simmons]

Matt.

[Craig Horbacek]

He directed it. It's just him.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, no, right. There is a co director on it, but he is the Credited director, which.

[Bill Simmons]

You know, means it might be better than I'd expect. But the trailer looks exactly as, oh, you know, this looks terrible. As you'd expect from his first movie.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know. I just don't think it matters that time of year. I don't think it matters.

[Bill Simmons]

But no, and this is a prototypical example of a movie that it's a franchise, it's IP for IP sake. Audiences have already rejected this twice. And not only that as sequels. Well, yeah, they've said, no, thank you.

[Scott Mendelson]

This is a reimagining, but it's not.

[Bill Simmons]

Because it's basically the same movie we got in 2011.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay, I. We're not going to debate the merits of the Smurfs movie. We are this. We are just going to accept it is not for us. I think the Smurfs is a global franchise. So still you don't think it is. So we're going to move on. Fantastic Four First Steps July 25 Disney, Marvel. This is their big gun of the summer. Where do you got it?

[Bill Simmons]

I do not think it's going to bomb, but confidence wise, I'm giving it a. Two really couple reasons. First, that trailer looked like Rise of the Silver Surfer 2.0. And again, we've seen this movie and Fox made that mistake in 2019 where they thought that regular audiences didn't like the Last Stand, like, oh, we want a real Dark Phoenix movie. So they made Dark Phoenix. And shocker, regular audiences thought X Men, the Last Stand was fine, thank you very much. Why am I seeing this movie that I've already seen before?

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay, but that is not Marvel Studios. That is not the brand. The fans of this type of movie, they think this is something new because it's Marvel Studios.

[Bill Simmons]

And how much is that worth to general audiences in 2025? If this were 2018, I'd be a lot more bullish. And hel, that's partially why Disney bought Fox in the first place. But as we've seen with the eternals, Ant Man 3, Captain America, 4 marvels, and to a certain extent, Thunderbolts, the Marvel Universe unto itself is no longer an A plus cinematic vacation destination the way it was in the late 2010s so how much value does Fantastic Four as an IP have? And as we know, because this is the fourth attempt to make this into a franchise.

[Scott Mendelson]

No, no, this is the fifth Fantastic Four movie.

[Bill Simmons]

Yes, but it's the third. Fourth attempt to make it into a franchise. The Rise of the Silver Surfer was a sequel. And yes, I'm counting the Roger Corbin One. And audiences have repeatedly said, either, eh, that's fine, or no, thank you.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, listen, I have this as a three. I am equally skeptical that this is going to be the big, breakout, new, repeatable Marvel franchise that they expect this to be. That's why I have it so low. Not that it won't do 500 million worldwide.

[Bill Simmons]

Agreed.

[Scott Mendelson]

But that's not good enough. They want this to be the new Guardians of the Galaxy, the new X Men, the new something that is repeatable. And I just, I don't know if we're there yet with Marvel. No, there's no. Proven stars love Pedro Pascal, but not a proven movie star yet. Despite our podcast earlier this week, he's got momentum. But Fox's movie in 2005 did 333 million worldwide. The 2015 movie, the Infamous Josh Trank disaster with Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara, a bunch of others that did 167 worldwide. Not great.

[Bill Simmons]

And the 2005 version, which was successful did 330 on A1 budget. A, it was back when a movie like that was unique and interesting. Interesting. And B, if you remember 20 years ago, it stood out as a very bright, colorful, kid friendly adventure film in a summer filled with Kingdom of Heaven, Revenge of the Sith, Batman Begins, War of the Worlds. It was not a summer for like super fun kids films.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, okay. August 1st, the Naked Gun, Paramount. Liam Neeson starring Akiva Schaefer, directing. Seth MacFarlane is involved in this movie. Very funny trailer. Where is it on your confidence scale?

[Bill Simmons]

12.

[Scott Mendelson]

Wow. You think this is going to work?

[Bill Simmons]

I don't know the budget, but I'm guessing they didn't spend a fortune. And they so far are doing the job of saying if you want a funny looking action comedy cop movie starring Liam Neeson doing his deadpan thing, this will deliver on its own merits, whether you care about the Naked Gun as a property or not.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, I love the original. I am of that generation and I laughed at the trailer during CinemaCon. The O.J. joke landed. Yeah, they, they have. They, you know, it felt like the original, but fresher jokes. Pam Anderson is in this movie. I don't know, I, I just, I think it's gonna skew old. I think young people don't have a relationship with this property and might wonder what this style of comedy is all about. I have it as a five Fair. And you're right, the budget is not huge. If this movie can get to 100 million worldwide, that's probably a win. But we'll see if it can get there. Is Liam Neeson a comedy star? I don't know.

[Bill Simmons]

No, I agree with you. I'm bullish. Because so far they're doing the right thing, which is selling this as a movie worth seeing unto itself.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. Right. They can't just lean on the IP because.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Scott Mendelson]

You know, the last one came out in the mid-90s. Yeah. And then nobody under 30 except for Craig, has ever seen the original unless their parents make them see it.

[Craig Horbacek]

It will be an interesting test because this movie looks funny and like, it does look funny. And if people don't show up to a movie that does look funny, then I think we kind of know where people stand about how they feel about theatrical comedy.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. And that. That is ip. It's not original, so.

[Bill Simmons]

And as much as I am cranky about these IP for IP sake, generational nostalgia revamps of stuff that used to be new and aimed at kids and funny and different, I will say that if they're trying to use IP like this to slowly re acclimate people to the pleasures of seeing just a comedy in theaters, then maybe it's long term for the best. We'll see.

[Scott Mendelson]

And if this hits, we're going to see the Floodgates. We're going to see Airplane, we're going to see Top Secret, we're going to see Blazing Saddles. All of them.

[Bill Simmons]

But, Craig, the Internet says you can't remake Blazing Saddles.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know.

[Bill Simmons]

Maybe they did three years ago. It was a pretty good cartoon called like Dog Samurai or something.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, I didn't even know that. Yeah, they did. Yeah. No, it wasn't called Dog Samurai. It was something else.

[Bill Simmons]

But Pause of Fury.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes. Paws of Fury.

[Bill Simmons]

And I'm not going to say it was a good movie, but they kept the subtext.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah. And it flopped.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah.

[Scott Mendelson]

Last one. Freaky or Friday, August 8th. Disney, where are you on this?

[Bill Simmons]

I mean, a nine.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay, see, this is where I'm going out on the limb here.

[Bill Simmons]

Fair.

[Scott Mendelson]

I'm putting this at 14. I think this is going to work and that this has the potential via the new, you know, rules of the algorithm and things becoming big via social and then transferring to theaters. I think this could be the kind of late summer female driven sleeper of.

[Bill Simmons]

The year that is entirely possible. My quote unquote concern is that Lindsay Lohan's movies do well on Netflix, but they don't do as well as other rom coms and rom drums that are talked about a lot less on social media. So there's a certain nobody outside of the Internet cares type Situation, maybe, but.

[Scott Mendelson]

There will be a press tour, There will be Lohan moments. The Lohan assance, I think is kind of real. People are rooting for her. She corrected whatever happened to her face. I think this is potentially something that could do more than the original did in 2003, which is 160 million worldwide. And on the budget they spent on this, that is a success.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I imagine this was supposed to be Disney, so I can't imagine they spent more than 40. And that's a streaming 40, which means everybody gets paid up front. I mean, as cranky as I am about this film on principle, because again, the original, the Freaky Friday remake 20 years ago was popular with kids who had no interest in the IP.

[Scott Mendelson]

Right? Yeah. I say original in 2003, but obviously the Jodie Foster one is the original.

[Bill Simmons]

Well, no, and that's why it was Satan. Good. And this is now, you know, it's no different for Indiana Jones where it's like people my age are trying to tell kids what they should like for stuff that's supposed to be aimed at them.

[Scott Mendelson]

But whatever, that's. I'm going out on a limb there and we'll see if it works.

[Craig Horbacek]

You're betting on millennial nostalgia there?

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, yeah, I am. I'm basically betting on the millennial, the.

[Craig Horbacek]

People who went in the 25 million that revenge of the Sith just made that you want those people to go see. I feel like that movie unfortunately just feels like a streaming movie. I don't know if people are going to go to the.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know it looked terrible. The at Cinemacon was bad. It actually looked cheap. It didn't look cinematic at all. It looked like a, you know, Disney Channel movie.

[Craig Horbacek]

Also, this is going to date me, but I, I will admit on this show right now, I had no idea that there was a Freaky Friday from the 70s.

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, you didn't? Oh, wow. Jody Foster, man, I'm disappointed in myself.

[Craig Horbacek]

But I had no idea.

[Scott Mendelson]

I have not seen it, but I was aware that it existed. All right, well, we made some bold predictions here, Craig, you got them all written down, right?

[Craig Horbacek]

I do. And so the movies that, that have the biggest differences in your guys is confidence. Smurfs has a 9 point difference. That's the largest. Matt is more confident. Karate Kid Scott is more confident. An eight point difference. Naked Gun a seven point difference. And Superman a six point difference.

[Scott Mendelson]

We're going to see. And the best part about this is we are all about accountability. So we will come back at the end of the summer and we will account for our picks.

[Bill Simmons]

Wait, you mean I have to f around and find out?

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes, you do.

[Bill Simmons]

For what it's worth, if there's one that we did not talk about that could break out Craig Zager's Weapons which opens in mid August. It is very buzzy. The teaser is very much speaking to horror nerds.

[Scott Mendelson]

You mean Zack Kreger? Zack Craig is the director.

[Bill Simmons]

Forgive me.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes, he's the barbarian director.

[Bill Simmons]

Yeah, I don't think to be a super blockbuster, but it looks like a sleeper.

[Scott Mendelson]

Okay, there you go. I agree with you. I think that one could break.

[Craig Horbacek]

There's a lot of good buzz about that movie. People seem to think it's going to be very good.

[Scott Mendelson]

Which will be good for Warners. They've been on the hot seat there. They got a big win with Sinners. They got Final Destination, Superman weapons. They got a piece of F1. Maybe this is the summer we, we, we see Warner's breakout. Maybe, maybe. Thank you very much, Scott. Appreciate the time.

[Bill Simmons]

Absolutely. Always a pleasure.

[Scott Mendelson]

We are back with the call sheet. Craig. The Golden Globes made a very significant announcement yesterday. Very significant for this show. They are adding a best podcast category. It's happening campaign starts now.

[Craig Horbacek]

We are available for all luncheons and brunches.

[Scott Mendelson]

I will shake anyone's hand. I will kiss any babies. The, I mean it is, it is like too perfect that the Golden Globes would do this. You know, the Oscars are adding like casting and stunt performers to like appease the creative community. The Golden Globes is a for profit, private equity owned cash grabbing business. They are doing this because they think that they can get some additional entrance fees from a lot of different people who think their podcasts are great and because they think they can get a few more stars in the building. They don't even have a best documentary category because they know that those are depressing movies and stars won't show up for those. But they can add a podcast category and you know, Julia Louis Dreyfus will enter and Amy Poehler will enter and all the stars with celebrity, the smart list guys will enter and they can potentially get some more stars in the building.

[Craig Horbacek]

Nice Amy Poehler plug. Good hang.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yes. For Ringer Show.

[Craig Horbacek]

How much are the entry fees?

[Scott Mendelson]

The actual entry fees are not very much. You can submit for 500 bucks for each program or movie, $250 each for each individual that you submit. But the real fee, the, the grift here is that they charge you $5,000 to put your product on the Golden Globes. Screening platform so the voters can watch the product. And you have to basically do that if you want to be serious about getting your product viewed. So it's. The whole thing is weird. They added a stand up comedy category to bring in more comedy people because they thought stars would, you know, they could get more stars in there. They're also trying to appeal to Netflix because they want Netflix to ultimately buy the show and air it. And Ted Sarandos loves comedy. So I mean, this is all business strategy. It has nothing to do with artistic merit or the growth of the podcast platform as an artistic, you know, platform. This is just a money grab. They say the top 25 podcasts will qualify and then they'll pick six nominees from those unclear. Who determines who the top 25 podcasts will are? We'll see. And that those fees, by the way, were for this past year. They'll probably up them again because they've been upping them every year.

[Craig Horbacek]

It's a big win for TV people who can now complain about having to rub shoulders with podcast people.

[Scott Mendelson]

I know. Who knows what kinds of nominees we.

[Craig Horbacek]

Should make A, we should just make blind predictions right now.

[Scott Mendelson]

Like, like Theo Vaughn, is Joe Rogan gonna be at the Globes?

[Craig Horbacek]

Theo Vaughn makes sense. Theo Vaughn is trying to break into the celebrity interview space. I would say Alex Cooper is kind of a shoe in to get a nomination, things like that.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, Marin, Marin is like, you know.

[Craig Horbacek]

The, the smart list guys for sure.

[Scott Mendelson]

Yeah, smart list. Maybe one Bill Simmons might be eligible here.

[Craig Horbacek]

Maybe Bill Simmons, Ryan Rosillo, the Ringer fantasy football show. Who knows?

[Scott Mendelson]

The Ringer fantasy football. Maybe the Rewatchables. Honestly, because it's movie centric.

[Craig Horbacek]

Is this going to be seen as a massive joke? Will it, will this be panned to death at the show itself?

[Scott Mendelson]

Oh, yeah, I'm sure they're going to make jokes about it. It'll also depend who the nominees are. You know, if it's, if it's a bunch of Hollywood stars and then like Megyn Kelly is a nominee for her podcast, then yes, of course. But I don't think the voters are going to go for those kinds of shows. They're going to probably go for the big celebrity shows or maybe some narrative stuff or, you know, the Daily will get nominated and like, we'll have to see Michael Barbaro at the Golden Globes.

[Craig Horbacek]

Well, imagine you could show up as a nominee. Wouldn't that be fun?

[Scott Mendelson]

That would be quite the moment. We'll see. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Scott Mendelson, producer Craig Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez and I want to thank you. We'll see you next week.