The 2026 Box Office Draft

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The 2026 Box Office Draft

Date: January 19, 2026
Host: Matt Belloni
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), producer Craig Horbeck

Episode Overview

This episode features the fourth annual "Box Office Draft," a head-to-head competition where Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw predict the top-grossing Hollywood releases for 2025. Using both industry insight and personal hunches, the hosts alternate in picking potential blockbusters, balancing box office expectations against production budgets to determine the most profitable movies. The draft covers anticipated franchise releases, risky original entries, and the all-important "bomb pick"—a big-budget film expected to flop.

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Episode Structure

• [00:00] Introduction and rules
• [02:20] Recap of last year’s draft and rivalry banter
• [04:13] Trivia for draft order
• [06:01] The 2026 Box Office Draft begins (film-by-film picks)
• [17:55] Sponsor break
• [18:14] Draft resumes: mid and late-round picks
• [27:58] Final picks and selection of bomb movies
• [32:33] Recap of each team’s slate
• [33:10] Reflections and analysis on the draft
• [36:36] Studio and genre distribution
• [36:50] Shoutout to listener maintaining the Fantasy Box Office website
• [37:12] Closing remarks

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Rules and Stakes

• Each host drafts 7 movies projected to release in 2025.
• Box office grosses are tallied globally; production budgets are subtracted to calculate net earnings.
• Each gets to assign one big-budget "bomb" (≥$100M cost) to the opponent's slate.
• Stakes: Winner gets taken to a Dodger game; ongoing show bragging rights.

Draft Order & Rivalry

• An opening movie trivia question decides draft order: “Most films released by a studio in one year during the sound era?” (Paramount and Warner Bros. at 68 films each in the 1930s).
• Lucas wins the trivia and claims first pick, aiming to break the curse ("every person who’s had the first pick has lost" – [03:18]).
• Light-hearted back-and-forth and sports analogies set the tone for a competitive but friendly draft.

Early Picks – Blockbuster Territory ([06:01]–[10:07])

Both Matt and Lucas agree there are “four, like, no question, billion dollar movies this year” ([06:28]).

1. Lucas: Spider-Man – Brand New Day

   • “Spider-Man has been the most foolproof franchise in Hollywood.” ([06:28], Lucas)
   • Release Date: July 31
   • Risks: Odd summer release date and lack of opening IMAX screens due to Christopher Nolan’s exclusivity.

2. Matt: Toy Story 5

   • “This one cannot lose.” ([07:47], Matt)
   • Early buzz: “Told by multiple people it’s great;... nostalgia that feels fresh.”
   • Release Date: June 19

3. Lucas: Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie

   • “Mario has the highest floor, probably, of any movie we're going to take.” ([08:44], Lucas)
   • Release Date: Most of April
   • Success expectation: “I would be shocked if it didn't hit a billion.” ([09:02], Lucas)

4. Matt: Avengers – Doomsday

   • “It's the Downey factor. To many people, Marvel is Downey and having him back is a big deal.” ([10:07], Matt)
   • Marvel skepticism: “Most recent Marvel movie, Fantastic Four, did 500 million.”
   • Anticipated floor: $1 billion

Mid-Round Picks – Big Franchises, Animation, and Spectacle ([10:56]–[18:14])

• Lucas: The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan)

  • “He has entered the rare pantheon of directors that people just show up [for], whatever it is.” ([11:08], Lucas)
  • Largest risk-reward profile: possible Oppenheimer/Barbie effect if it crosses over.

• Matt: Minions 3

  • “Wildly consistent, incredibly consistent.” ([12:57], Matt)
  • Fourth of July release, safe bet for $800–$900 million.

• Lucas: Mandalorian & Grogu (Star Wars)

  • "Can a kids' movie be big?" ([14:08], Lucas)
  • IMAX boost; worries about TV-to-movie translation.

• Matt: Moana (Live Action)

  • “[Moana has] potential to be bigger. I think the music... people love the music.” ([16:53], Matt)
  • Craig and Lucas skeptical millennials care, but Matt argues strong Gen Z/young millennial appeal.

Late Rounds – Calculated Risks and Genre Diversity ([18:14]–[29:00])

• Lucas: Dune Messiah

  • Final franchise entry, Chalamet & Zendaya's star power noted.

• Matt: Michael (Jackson biopic)

  • “This movie could do 500 [million], it could do 1.5 billion.” ([20:32], Matt)
  • Compared to Bohemian Rhapsody; potential international juggernaut.

• Lucas: Jumanji 3

  • Safe family play, driven by overseas markets.

• Matt: Disclosure Day (Spielberg)

  • “Spielberg’s last movie to gross more than $500 million worldwide [was] Ready Player One.” ([22:47], Matt)
  • Described as personal wishcasting; debate over Spielberg's current box office value.

• Lucas: Devil Wears Prada 2

  • “Nostalgia thing really matters.” ([24:06], Lucas)
  • First female-skewing pick; betting on intergenerational nostalgia.

• Matt: Hunger Games – Sunrise on the Reaping

  • Thanksgiving slot; aiming to revitalize the franchise and benefit from a favorable corridor.

The “Bomb” Picks – Big Risks ([27:58]–[32:33])

• Matt assigns Lucas: Masters of the Universe

  • “Everything about this screams trouble... Jared Leto is in this movie. He plays Skeletor, who's basically box office boys.” ([28:48], Matt)
  • June release slot often spells trouble for expensive, unproven properties.

• Lucas assigns Matt: The Bride

  • “I've seen some tracking on it... not great.” ([31:10], Matt)
  • Uncertainty about budget affecting eligibility; Jesse Buckley starring.

Other Considered Bombs and "What Ifs"

• Several other risky, big-budget titles discussed:
  • Supergirl, Wuthering Heights, Digger (Tom Cruise), Project Hail Mary (Gosling sci-fi), the new Pixar movie, etc.

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Draft Recap ([32:33])

Lucas’s Team

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
2. Super Mario Bros. Galaxy
3. The Odyssey
4. The Mandalorian and Grogu
5. Dune Messiah
6. Jumanji 3
7. Devil Wears Prada 2

• Bomb: Masters of the Universe

Matt’s Team

1. Toy Story 5
2. Avengers: Doomsday
3. Minions 3
4. Moana (Live Action)
5. Michael
6. Disclosure Day
7. Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

• Bomb: The Bride

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Draft Trends & Curse:
  “So far every person that has had the first pick in the draft has lost.” ([03:18], Craig)
• Animated Blockbusters’ Pull:
  “Toy Story 5. This one cannot lose.” ([07:47], Matt)
• On Audience Segments:
  “Women will be in the majority of the audience.” ([25:00], Lucas, re: Devil Wears Prada 2)
• Cynicism for Big Bets:
  “This could be our social media clip. Not knowing how to pronounce [Galitzine].” ([29:23], Matt)
• On Blockbuster Predictability:
  “I think the marketing already seems lame to me, but Disney put out a release saying that they got like a billion views... it’s the Downey factor.” ([10:07], Matt)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [04:13] – Box office trivia for draft order and rule twist explanation.
• [06:01] – Draft begins: top four ‘sure-thing’ picks.
• [10:07] – Marvel optimism versus skepticism.
• [11:04] – Nolan pick; speculation on The Odyssey’s ceiling and IMAX impact.
• [14:08] – Star Wars: Mandalorian’s move to the big screen, TV vs. film dilemma.
• [16:52] – Animated/live-action nostalgia: Moana and generational appeal.
• [20:32] – The Michael pick: international appeal, biopic comparisons.
• [22:47] – Risk profile of Disclosure Day (Spielberg).
• [24:00] – Devil Wears Prada 2: female audience and nostalgia sequels.
• [27:58] – Bomb picks: logic, studio hesitations, production gossip.
• [32:33] – Drafted movie lists recapped and teams analyzed.
• [33:10] – Strategic reflections: risk profiles and what might swing the draft.
• [36:50] – Shout-out to fan-made Fantasy Box Office tracking site.

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Final Thoughts

This year’s draft is characterized by a rich blockbuster slate, but also heightened risk, with both hosts forced to venture beyond slam-dunk IPs due to deep franchise competition. Key factors debated include IMAX access, nostalgia's complex power, overseas markets, and the unknowns of streaming-hyped properties making theatrical plays.

Ultimately, consensus is that box office in 2025 will hinge on a few monster hits (Toy Story 5, Spider-Man, Avengers), but surprises—possibly from high-variance gambles like Nolan’s The Odyssey or Michael (Jackson biopic)—could decide the draft’s winner.

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For listeners:
This episode delivers a fast-paced, inside-Hollywood look at the calculus behind box office prognostication, punctuated by friendly rivalry, sharp industry insight, and a real-time simulation of the bets shaping major studio strategies in 2026.

Transcript

[A]

This episode of the Town is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting Train Dreams. Nominated for four film independent spirit awards, including best picture and best director Clint Bentley, the Playlist lauds it as a career best performance from nominee Joel Edgerton, winner of the critics choice award for best cinematography. RogerEbert.com raves, it's a film that reached into my heart and soul. You don't just watch it, you breathe it in. And New York magazine hails Train Dreams the best picture of the year for your awards consideration. This episode is brought to you by HBO Max. For the doctors and nurses on the pit, the work never stops. The Emmy award winner for outstanding drama series is back for a new real time shift with 15 high staked hours told across 15 must see episodes. Starring Emmy award winner Noah Wylie, Season two of the critically acclaimed Max original series is now streaming on HBO Max with new episodes on Thursdays. Check out the official companion podcast on HBO Max and all major podcast platforms. It is Monday, January 19th. It's draft day. The town's fourth annual box office draft. If you're not familiar, this is where Lucas Shaw and I poll our sources with, we hope, some inside knowledge of the year ahead in movies and pick the biggest winners at the worldwide box office. This year is particularly challenging, I think. I feel like last year there were a few clear standouts and then a lot of a minus or even B level properties that the studios tried to dress up into blockbusters. This year there's lots more big guns. The clear A level properties like Super Mario Brothers and Toy Story and Spider man and Avengers and so on. If everything goes right, there will be way more than $3 billion groceries this year, which is what we had last year. Now if you remember the rules, Lucas and I will go back and forth each draft. Seven movies to be released in 2025. With each movie, we get the overall worldwide box office, but we also subtract the production budget, not including marketing. The winner is whoever collects the most money. And as always, Lucas and I will give each other a movie that we think is a bomb waiting to explode. That movie needs to cost at least $100 million. Okay, enough intro. Let's get to the 2026 box office draft from the ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg and we are ready for the draft. Lucas, are you ready?

[B]

We're in studio.

[A]

We are full video in person at the Spotify headquarters doing the draft. Craig, are we going to go over last year or Are we just going to skip that?

[C]

Oh, please. I'm sure you want to skip it because for the first time, Lucas Shaw has won the box office draft.

[A]

Congratulations.

[C]

A landslide victory.

[A]

Dancing around the studio.

[C]

He won by pretty much a billion dollars.

[A]

Yes. Really? This is embarrassing. So it's two to one me. We've done this our fourth year. You won twice.

[B]

You won the first one big win. Second one was a nail biter that you won. And third one was more like year one, which was a surprise because we thought it was going to be a nail biter. But then Zootopia basically outgrossing Avatar was.

[A]

Avatar absolutely screwed me.

[C]

It's good for the show that it's now 2:1. We didn't want a 3:0 situation.

[B]

Yeah. Do I count as an injured player for the.

[A]

I do have a sliced off.

[C]

Show the camera your sliced off finger. Also, I should say that so far every person that has had the first pick in the draft has lost.

[A]

Oh, wow.

[C]

Three years running now. First. The guy with first pick has lost.

[A]

Okay, so that's an interesting little.

[B]

I should tank the trivia question as well.

[A]

That's interesting because we are going to have a trivia question from Craig to determine first pick. But you can either pick first pick or you can pick first for the bombs.

[B]

Oh, you can do that?

[A]

Yes. So you pick either.

[C]

That's the wrinkle this year is now if you win the trivia, you can basically have the choice, do I want the first pick in the draft or the person with the second pick then gets the first bomb.

[B]

I'm so curious.

[A]

I know you hate when I bring this up, but you did famously give me Oppenheimer two years ago.

[B]

I just know that because I won last year, you're trying to spend as much time talking about year one as possible, which is fine.

[A]

That's okay.

[B]

We do have a new. This is our first year with a new Christopher Nolan movie since that year.

[A]

That's true. And as you know, the winner gets taken to the Dodger game of his choice during the season. Craig joins as well. And that's a big deal. Now they sign Kyle Tucker. That's going to be a big. The ticket's probably going to be much more expensive. Beers will be 30 bucks.

[B]

So I'm expecting dugout club.

[A]

A lot at stake here. A lot at stake. All right, let's go, Craig. The trivia question to determine draft order.

[C]

Do you want a question about box office or do you want a question about movie studios?

[A]

Studios.

[B]

What does studio question mean?

[A]

All right.

[C]

We're going to do studios. This one's going to be tricky. This one, I think, will be more even. I don't think either of you will know this off the top of your head. In the sound era of movies, after the silent era, what is the most amount of films released by a studio in one year?

[B]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[A]

By a single studio.

[C]

By a single studio. The record is it's a tie between two studios.

[A]

Oh, and you just want the number?

[C]

Yes. I can give you the studios. It's Paramount and Warner Brothers.

[B]

That's not gonna matter.

[A]

That's not gonna help. I think it's gonna. We're gonna go back to, like, the westerns and the musicals when they were just pumping them out.

[C]

So I'll give you five seconds, think about it, and then we'll say the answer.

[B]

I've got a number that's gonna be probably way off.

[C]

This is the most amount of movies a studio has released.

[A]

Sure.

[C]

You guys ready? Three, two, one.

[A]

28.

[C]

Lucas said 40. Matt said 28. The answer is 68.

[A]

Whoa. Jesus Christ. When was that?

[C]

Paramount in 1936 and Warner Brothers in 1937.

[B]

Wow. I was actually going to go 45, and I was worried it was too high.

[A]

That was just when they were just pumping like, you know. You know, melodramas and westerns and musicals, like.

[C]

Yeah. And they own theaters back then, right?

[A]

And they own the theaters. Yeah.

[B]

So we know what this means.

[C]

Pushing through these.

[A]

So now Lucas is going to.

[B]

No.

[A]

What do you select?

[B]

Ooh.

[C]

You get the decision. First pick or first bomb?

[B]

This is tough because my prevailing theory on this is that the bomb.

[A]

I don't care about your thought process. Just pick.

[B]

I don't think bombs matter.

[C]

Says the guy who gave Matt Oppenheimer.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[B]

But I do only have one sure thing, bomb. I'm going to take first pick and try to break the cycle.

[A]

Okay. With the first pick in the 2026 box office, draft, Lucas selects Spider Man. Interesting. Okay. Not bad. Last1 did 1.9 billion in 2021. Biggest Spider man ever that was released around Christmas. This one is getting an kind of odd date for a Spider man movie. It's July 31st.

[B]

It's got the Deadpool date.

[A]

Okay. I'm sure it's going to do great. Not much competition there. There is a new director.

[B]

There's a lot of competition leading into it. But what I'm basically banking on is Spider man has been the most foolproof franchise in Hollywood. And I think as we're gonna go through There are probably four, like no question, billion dollar movies this year. And it and one other have the two highest ceilings. It's probably got a slightly lower floor than a couple of the others. So this is risky, but I think you got like.

[A]

Yeah, I'm not going to fault you for that. The only wrinkle I would say is that because of Chris Nolan's relationship with imax, it will not be imax. It does not have the IMAX screens that first week. Nolan has three weeks of exclusivity on imax. So that will bleed into the first weekend of Spider Man.

[B]

I hear you.

[A]

So just saying. Yeah, but I'm not going to argue that one. Okay. My first pick.

[B]

I'm curious where you're going here.

[A]

I'm going family movies. Toy Story 5. If you look at the number one movie the past two years, not saying it's indicative, but Inside Out 2, Zootopia 2. They led their years. 1.7 billion for each. This one I have been told by multiple people now it's great. It's got a great premise. It is exactly in that mold of nostalgia that feels fresh. And it's got the Pixar release date June 19th. Andrew Stanton is directing. He's one of the old school Pixar guys. This one cannot lose.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

Craig's laughing because he's going to clip that when it underpins.

[B]

Well, because you said there was. Yeah. Anyways, I did say that.

[A]

About animation.

[C]

I have so many great quotes from the last draft.

[B]

I came very close to having Toy Story first. I agree that animated is a sure thing. And what I think Toy Story has going for it is that it's been a few years since the last one and so there will be some pent up demand.

[A]

Yeah, the last one didn't. Didn't grow what the previous one did, but that's okay.

[B]

And I had some conversation with a few people who were trying to debate. Did the catastrophe of Lightyear color this at all? I don't think so. So yeah, I'm not gonna quibble at all. You've now put me in a very difficult position with my next.

[A]

No, there's great movies left. No, no, no.

[B]

I just think the next two is I'm gonna go against my rankings and I'm gonna go with Mario. Cause I do think that I gotta stick with kids.

[A]

You're putting me in a bad position to. I'm gonna select a movie that I really want to fail. Yes, but go, go look.

[B]

Mario is the first massive kids movie of the year. There's a couple kids movies before it, but they're original and I don't think they're gonna be nearly as big. It's got most of April to itself. I would say that Mario has the highest floor probably of any movie we're going to take. I would be shocked if it didn't hit a billion.

[A]

Yeah, all the elements are back.

[B]

I just think it might not have this. I think it could have like a little dip from the last one because there's not as much excitement. And not that my opinion on this matters, but I didn't think the first one was like an amazing movie.

[A]

You're not a nine year old boy.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

My kid thought it was Citizen Kane.

[B]

Right. So I think it's a safe bet because I was sort of hoping you wouldn't take Toy Story and I could then take Toy Story, but here I am and I thought I was going to like, I thought going into this there would be a chance that I would take like six movies in this. Disney movies in this draft. And right now I've got zero.

[A]

Well, now you're going to be all. So. All right, my number two pick. I'm going to go with Avengers Doomsday, December 18th. Last one did 2.9 billion, but most recent Marvel movie, Fantastic Four, did 500 million.

[B]

So the question is, is Avengers a totally different beast from the rest of the Marvel movies? And like, it's obviously gonna be way bigger than Fantastic Four. A billion is the floor, but is.

[A]

It gonna get to 2 billion?

[B]

Right? I almost. Cause I in my rankings had it above Mario, but I wasn't gonna surrender both of the top kids movies to you.

[A]

Yes, the marketing already seems lame to me, but Disney put out a release saying that they got like a billion views. I mean, clearly there is interest in this and it's the Downey factor. To many people, Marvel is Downey and having him back is a big deal.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So the Russos, I mean, it's unbelievable that they continue to get big jobs, but I am now aligned with them. I am officially rooting for them.

[B]

You're team Disney.

[A]

I am team Disney. They love me.

[B]

Do you think it's fair to say that those four movies we just picked are clearly a cut above?

[A]

Yeah. But not the only billion dollar grocers of the year.

[B]

You think it's definite that a couple of other.

[A]

There's at least two more that I believe will be billion dollars for sure. So pick one. This is your number three pick.

[B]

Okay, I'm gonna have to roll the dice here. Okay, I've heard wildly different opinions about this. I think this is where I go, Nolan.

[A]

Okay. All right. Give me your reason.

[B]

The Odyssey. I will probably regret this and not taking the next kids movie that I was going to take, but I think that he has entered the rare pantheon of directors that people just show up, whatever it is. It looks like huge summer spectacle. It's going to be IMAX everywhere. It's a global story. And there's just.

[A]

Although you claim that nobody in Brazil.

[B]

No, but then we heard the response.

[A]

We got a number of responses from people in Brazil. Yes.

[B]

Notably, we did not hear from people in South Korea or Japan, which I.

[A]

Also referenced, but they do read the Odyssey in high school in Brazil. And.

[B]

Yeah, I just. I've learned my lesson and I'm gonna listen.

[A]

Oppenheimer did 975. Almost a billion dollars in 2023.

[B]

Did get lifted by Barbie.

[A]

Got lifted by Barbie. Became a meme. You know the other comps for Nolan? Dunkirk did 550. Interstellar did 775. Inception did 840.

[B]

Probably too high.

[A]

These are not like, not a billion dollars. Billion dollar movies. Now, I would argue that he is. He won best picture.

[B]

And there's a lot of interesting get bigger and bigger.

[A]

This is the ultimate dad movie. And like, have for this movie is will women show up?

[B]

Right.

[A]

And we don't know, maybe there's a hook for females. There's a lot of stars, including stars that women love, like Zendaya and Hathaway. We'll see sword and sandals, typically not gigantic. Gladiator 2 did 462 million.

[B]

Troy did 500.

[A]

About, like, not. Not on that upper level. I will say that the ceiling on this one is higher.

[B]

Right.

[A]

If it hits, if it's great, if it becomes the range.

[B]

The range I had on this was among the biggest. And I was picking between, like, something that has probably the narrowest range of any movie that I have and the biggest range.

[A]

All right, so for my number three pick, I'm deciding between two family movies, and I'm going to go with Minions three.

[B]

That was my other next obvious pick.

[A]

Yeah, I think that if you look at the numbers for the Despicable Me movies, this movie's out July 1st. They're wildly consistent, incredibly consistent. Like, they always get to just around a billion dollars. Like, usually a little under, sometimes a little over. But, like, people show up for these things, and it's gonna give me fewer heart attacks to have something consistent in my menu.

[B]

I can't. I can't. Object to it. Super consistent lower ceiling.

[A]

Yeah, exactly. But I'll take a billion dollars.

[B]

I don't think it'll get to a billion, but I think it'll. No, I think it's gonna be, like, eight or nine, which is just fine.

[A]

It's got that Fourth of July release date.

[B]

It's two. Yes, but. So you and I are both interestingly competing with ourselves. So I took the Odyssey, which is right before Spider man, and so if the Odyssey is huge, it will eat into Spider Man. You took Minions, which is right after Toy Story, and you know what?

[A]

There's gonna be a Minions trailer on Toy Story, and hopefully it'll cause everyone to go see bald. Okay, number four for you. There's a big one sitting out there that neither of us has touched yet.

[B]

I think I know which one you think is the big one. To me, I think this is now a choice between two Disney movies.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

And it's do I believe in Moana or do I believe in Mandalorian?

[A]

Yeah, that's the choice. Last Star wars did a billion. You know what? I'm not gonna influence your vote.

[B]

I've gone back and forth on these two a lot. Moana's like, have they kind of tapped it out too much? Are they rushing? These. Mandalorian is. Can a tv. Can a kids movie be big? I'm gonna go Mandalorian. I think the date matters a lot. Yeah. Okay. I think. Because the thing that worries me a little bit about Moana is that it is after both Toy Story and Minions, and I think the kids market by then will be a little saturated. Mandalorian has, I think, like, two weeks to itself.

[A]

Yeah. It also. Favreau shot an imax, so he's getting imax.

[B]

And Favreau doesn't really miss.

[A]

He doesn't. I am bummed you picked that. I would have picked it.

[B]

But you're also Star wars fan number one.

[A]

I am. I am.

[B]

I have noticed three times, and.

[A]

But I will say the most. The previous Star wars movie did gross a billion, but it was widely panned and killed the franchise for seven years. So they're kind of restarting here. And the fear is that people say, oh, Mandalorian movie. That's a TV thing. Like, oh, I'll just watch that when it's on tv. And I haven't seen anything in the trailer. The trailer was, like, fine. But it didn't suggest to me anything that was theatrical. It was like, oh, this is different from the show. Bigger than the show. Something I need to see. In theaters, so they have some work to do on this one. But Favreau shot the movie in IMAX and they're going to get the screens. And I don't know if it gets to a billion. I don't think it does.

[B]

I don't think it does either, but I don't think Moana does either.

[A]

Okay, so I'm picking Moana. Yeah, I think it could. The trailer is, like, embarrassing. It looks like a shot by shot remake of the animated movie.

[B]

Right.

[A]

But that works like. That works for them. So I was down on Lilo and Stitch last year, and you said millennials care about Lilo and Stitch. I think Millennials and Gen Z care. Cares a lot about Moana and they will show up for this.

[B]

I do not think millennials care about Moana.

[A]

No. Even though it's the number one movie on Disney plus.

[B]

That's because of children.

[A]

I'm not saying, but they were chilled.

[B]

This is like, like Moana is not that.

[A]

No. 10 years old.

[C]

It's not 20.

[B]

But not for millennials.

[A]

Sorry. Gen Z and young millennials, when they were, like, in high school and stuff, they got into Moana.

[B]

Look, I think you have learned the lesson from last year that I have unlearned, which is you're just taking all the kids movies. Although I would argue Mandalorian and Grogu is like kind of a kids movie.

[A]

Yeah, definitely. Yeah.

[B]

Moana makes me a little nervous, but I. Yeah, it's gonna, I think it'll make like 7,800 million dollars and you'll be fine.

[A]

I think it has, has potential, and.

[B]

It has the potential to be bigger.

[A]

I think the music people love the music. I, I, you know, it's a good time. Moana's a good time. Just an FYI, the first one only did 634 in theaters in 2016.

[B]

Yeah, but then it flew up.

[A]

Did a billion.

[B]

But I will. Yes.

[A]

And it was a repurposed TV show. This episode is brought to you by Universal Pictures presenting the film Wicked for Good. Directed by John M. Chu, Wicked for Good is the epic, electrifying and emotional conclusion to the untold story of the Witches of Oz. Deadline calls it a masterpiece. And the movie that we need now for your awards consideration in all categories, including best Director, John M. Chu, Best Actress, Cynthia Eribo, Best Supporting Actress, Ariana Grande, and Best picture of the year, Wicked for Good. Now playing in theaters. This episode is brought to you by TaxAct. Like an expert coach, TaxAct offers step by step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes get tips along the way. Add expert assist to talk to tax.

[B]

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[B]

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[A]

Conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. All right, number five pick for you.

[C]

Draft starts now. Kind of.

[A]

You know, we're getting into the risky picks.

[B]

I don't think the next two are risky. It's just there's a total wild card with, like, what the fuck is Warner Brothers going to do with this Dune movie?

[A]

You mean they could move it? Yeah, I don't think they are. Like, Timmy's talking about it as if they're trying to make a thing out of Dunes Day, releasing it the same day as Doomsday. So I think there. I mean, there's enough to go around during the holidays for both. Yeah. They are slightly different audiences. They overlap.

[C]

Do you think that's a floor raiser for both or is there a risk that it hurts one more than the other?

[A]

Well, let's let Lucas pick first and then there's nothing.

[B]

There's nothing. I don't think there's anything that really.

[A]

Hurts the Avengers, but Dune shot. Well, I don't want to. I don't want to tip my hand here. You pick.

[B]

I'm going to go with Dune. Final one of the franchise. Chalamet has never been bigger. Zendaya is going to have the best year in the many, many years.

[A]

She will actually have the best year for a female actor ever.

[B]

And I just. I think the floor on the Dune movie is pretty high.

[A]

The Last1 did 7:15 only in 2023. And it's going up against Doomsday.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But these movies are very well liked. Chalamet is bigger than he was last time, and they shot it in imax, so they're getting the screen and they play well internationally. Yep. So not. Not. Not a bad pick, you about to say.

[B]

Not an embarrassing.

[A]

No, not a. Not a bad pick because. Well, we're getting down there because there's some other movies here that are riskier. So I'm going to take a huge swing right now.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Picking Michael.

[B]

Oh, wow.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

So this one has a gigantic ceiling. Michael. The Michael Jackson movie. The troubled Michael Jackson movie that they had to completely reshoot because of some legal issues. It's turned into mostly fan service. Yeah. Is what I'm told, a big celebration and concert. But the footage that has been circulating amongst people, they love It. I think internationally, this is going to be huge, especially in Asia. And it's got. It's, you know, April 24th release date. Bohemian Rhapsody did $900 million in 20.

[B]

What is the release date? I thought it was April.

[A]

April 24th. Okay, so it's after Super Mario.

[B]

Right.

[A]

But before some of the big summer movies.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And I think that this Movie could do 500. It could do 1.5 billion. Like, if. If this becomes a thing that people see over and over again in overseas, the ceiling is very high.

[B]

Yeah, I had it on the list. I had it a little lower. I think you're right that it'll be big overseas. I think he's pretty toxic here. And.

[A]

Yes. And no, we say that, but then, you know, the Vegas shows are hits, the Broadway shows.

[B]

Not everyone cares.

[A]

Not everyone cares. And honestly, like, not everyone even knows about that stuff anymore.

[B]

What's the highest gross? Is Bohemian Rhapsody the highest grossing out.

[A]

Of, like, musical biopic? Yes.

[B]

And what did that hit?

[A]

A billion over 900, so. And Michael Jackson a lot more popular than Queen.

[B]

Right. Although way more popular.

[A]

They both died young.

[B]

Seems like the movie is going to be not great.

[A]

We don't know. Antoine Fuqua. I mean, maybe. Maybe they have, you know, put me in a real. John Logan wrote it. He's got a good track record.

[B]

You put me in a real tricky position here.

[A]

So. But. But there's other safer picks out there.

[B]

Yeah, I'm going to. I'm going to go with a. With a very safe one. I'm going to take Jumanji 3.

[A]

That's fine. December 11th.

[B]

Those movies just. They print money overseas.

[A]

Yeah, the Last one did $800 million in 2019, though. That was seven years ago.

[B]

Yeah. Look, there's been a. There was a real drop off from 1 to 2, but I think with the star power in it and the international appeal, I think it's a Just a really safe pick.

[A]

Yeah, I agree. Much safer than Michael. But I think the ceiling.

[B]

Oh, yeah, the ceiling is probably what the last one made.

[A]

Yeah. Okay. Now we're really getting into it.

[B]

No, I know exactly what my next pick would be. And if you take it, I'm gonna jump across the table.

[A]

Oh, okay.

[B]

This worked out well for me if you don't take it, because I don't have to go into the well of movies I was unsure about.

[A]

God, I don't know what you're gonna take here. I don't think you're gonna take Project Hail Mary, so I'm gonna take Disclosure Day.

[B]

Oh, wow, you're going Spielberg.

[A]

It's another risk. Oh, God, I'm already losing this draft.

[B]

No, you're playing high upside.

[A]

You know, it's because I want this to be good.

[B]

I hear you.

[A]

I'm. I'm wishcasting. I am wish casting. I'll give you a little quiz. What was Spielberg's last movie to GROSS More than 500 million worldwide?

[B]

It wasn't the ready player one. It was okay. I didn't even know if it got there.

[A]

2018. And 200 million of that was in China. Right. So, like, this is a risk, I think.

[B]

Yeah, I think it's a huge risk. I was never going to take it.

[A]

June 12th. Spielberg just has not been a huge box office draw.

[B]

Although he doesn't mean anything.

[C]

But he hasn't been trying.

[A]

I know, but he. He made the fact he stupid with west side Story. But that was Covid. Covid.

[B]

Everything that he. That name no longer means anything to, like, the younger.

[A]

I disagree. I still think it's a brand. And even if this skews older, I.

[B]

Think it means something to you.

[A]

No, I know, but I'm saying even if it skews older, that's okay, right? It's fine. If those people show up, you're gonna.

[B]

Laugh at my next big.

[A]

Okay, wait, wait. So you're. But you're laughing at Disclosure Day.

[B]

I'm not laughing. So I put both Disclosure Day and another movie into the same camp, which is like my lesson from Oppenheimer, which is I will never bet against someone with such a proven track record. But I'm not touching it.

[C]

We should say that you guys each have six movies right now. You have one more before you have to give each other the bomb. So you get seven movies. So this is your final movie for each of you right now.

[A]

Go ahead.

[B]

You're gonna laugh at me. Deborah's Prada too.

[A]

No, I'm not laughing. Yeah, no, I'm not. That's a perfectly respectable pick. I think it's for the budget.

[B]

Yeah. I think it's. Everything I've heard is that it's good. And I think that the nostalgia thing really matters. And we see some of these movies that were like, big. I mean, it's what we just talked about with Lilo and Stitch, obviously different audience and all of that, but a movie that meant something and only grew in kind of affection over the years.

[A]

The problem with that is that you're also describing Freakier Friday.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Which got to 150.

[B]

But what did the first Freaky Friday make?

[A]

I don't know. But I do know that the first.

[B]

Devil wears product made 350.

[A]

Only made 350. But that was 20 years ago.

[C]

First Freaky Friday made 160.

[A]

Right, 160.

[B]

So if it repeats, it's 350. And if it grows at all, we're talking four or five.

[A]

Okay. Is that enough for our draft? I think Disclosure day gets to 400 for sure.

[B]

But Disclosure Day probably costs twice as much money.

[A]

Maybe. Yeah. I didn't realize Gaga is in Devil Wears Prada, too. Like, a real role.

[B]

I think Devil. So I was a little worried that too many of my picks have been for men. This is. If you look at what we've selected, this is the first movie I think, that any of us have taken where you would estimate that women will be in the majority of the audience.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Unless you're counting a kid's movie. Because Ma or whatever. But, like.

[A]

Well, it's interesting you didn't take Hunger Games. Speaking of women's movies, there was a.

[B]

Group of about five movies towards the bottom where I was like, which of these? And I think Hunger Games, if you take it, would not judge at all. Because the one thing that neither one of us has taken yet, we don't have a Thanksgiving movie. But because the Thanksgiving slate this year, super weak.

[A]

I actually think that Falker in Law could be big. I debated it, but it's a comedy, and I think there's a ceiling on comedy.

[B]

So I think Focker in Law fits into a similar canon.

[A]

That's a Thanksgiving movie.

[B]

Yes. Thanksgiving is Hunger Games, Fokker in Law, and another Disney animated. And that Hexed. That is an original. I was having a conversation with someone. If you and your family are debating what to see over Thanksgiving, I know I'm picking Focker in Law, but my behavior does not. It's not predictive of others.

[A]

They will make it family.

[B]

Right. And I do think I was. I mean, I don't need to talk you into it, but if you look at the box office for the meet the parents movies, 50, 50 domestic, international, they'd have actually done pretty well overseas.

[A]

So are you trying to get me to pick it? No, no. Take whatever you want. This is reverse psychology. You're trying to get me to pick it. No.

[B]

What are you going to take?

[A]

Well, I'm debating between two final picks. Yeah, I think I'm going to go Hunger Games. Okay. Because I was going to maybe pick Project Hail Mary, but I already have an original on there with Disclosure Day. I think Project Hail Mary will be fine. And we'll get to. It's just Amazon. Like, what is. Does Amazon have experience here doing this? They're going to put a lot of money into it. And it's just. It's original.

[B]

I really like the look of Project Hail Mary, but I would not bet on.

[A]

Yeah, I will see it. I will not bet on it. I will not see Hunger Games sunrise on the Reaping.

[B]

But it's going to do pretty well.

[A]

It will do well. And like you said, it's got that Thanksgiving corridor kind of to itself. Right. Even though Narnia. You're not. You're not counting Narnia.

[B]

It comes out after Thanksgiving.

[A]

No, it doesn't. Narnia is Thanksgiving. And then it goes on Netflix and Christmas Day.

[B]

I think it's the week after Thanksgiving.

[A]

No. Why would they do that?

[B]

Because I thought that was the whole thing was they'd have early December to themselves.

[C]

No, they're scheduled to come out Thanksgiving.

[B]

Day on Thanksgiving Day.

[A]

Yeah. Narnia is Thanksgiving in IMAX screens only.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

So. But I'm not betting that because it's just imax.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And.

[B]

And they'll. It'll be two weeks.

[A]

Yes. So I am picking Hunger Games. The last one did only 361 million. And I just think it's gotta get more than that. I think that Devil Wears Prada might beat it. If it's good. Devil wars product could play like, Beetlejuice. Beetlejuice, where it's like nostalgia sequel with all those things.

[B]

That's what I'm banking on.

[A]

That got to 450. So that's the best case scenario for you. Hunger Games, I think could get to, like, 455 if they play this. Right. All right, we have reached the portion of the 2026 draft where I give you the bomb of the year. Something I believe is going to explode over everybody and cause jobs to be lost, people to be embarrassed. I am picking Masters of the Universe.

[B]

I didn't need to go to Cinemacon to know that that was my selection.

[A]

But if you did go to Cinemacon last year, you would have seen the footage they showed, which was not great. They also showed, like, a workout video for this guy, Nicholas Galantine, which I know he's like, on. You know, was it Summer I Turned Pretty? No, he's on something else.

[C]

The Anne Hathaway movie.

[A]

Oh, the, like, Horny mom movie.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Okay. That looks like a bomb to me. Everything about this screams trouble. First of all, it's he.

[B]

Man.

[A]

How relevant is he, man, these days? The workout videos. Jared Leto is in this movie. He plays Skeletor, who's basically box office boys. Yes, Box office boys. Now, Travis Knight, who's a good director, I liked his Transformers movie. By the way, the horny mom movie with Anne Hathaway was called the idea of you and his name is Nicholas Galzatine.

[C]

No, it's Gala. Galitzine.

[A]

Galitzine.

[B]

I think it's Galitzin, but it's Galitzin.

[A]

Galitzine. No, it's Gal. Galitzine.

[B]

This could be our social media clip. Not knowing how to pronounce this. Yeah.

[A]

No disrespect, this movie costs almost $200 million. Like, Amazon does not have experience releasing these kinds of movies. Although they're going big this year. Sony has international. I just. To me, this has that June, early June release date where you put your iffy summer movie. The movie you kind of have to release in the summer because it's so expensive, but you're not totally sure about. So to me, this screams bomb. And you will have it all over yourself.

[B]

So match that. I have no idea what to give you. I'm gonna be honest.

[A]

Oh, I had another one.

[B]

What was your other.

[A]

No, I'm not giving you ideas. Why not? Because I don't want to give myself a bomb. A lot of movies still out there.

[B]

Not a lot that cost 100 plus, though.

[A]

There's a Pixar movie. There's a Supergirl movie.

[B]

Debated Supergirl. I don't think that's, like, quite enough of a disaster.

[A]

I think it'll be fine.

[B]

I'm not touching Pixar. That's just like a recipe.

[A]

And that one looks pretty good.

[B]

I actually almost. If I almost.

[A]

Hopper, I was out in March.

[B]

Yeah, I almost.

[C]

An obvious answer here.

[A]

I feel like I agree.

[B]

What is your obvious answer?

[C]

I'm not going to give it to you.

[A]

Why not?

[C]

I can't influence either side.

[A]

Craig is an impartial observer here. He cannot help you or me.

[C]

But I think there's a clear pick here.

[A]

I agree. Craig, I think Lucas is missing something. You may not think this movie cost $100 million, but it did.

[B]

Are we counting the bride?

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Okay. I didn't. Because they're not reporting that as they're saying 80 something.

[A]

But it's over 100. If we get the final. And it's not 100, you can redraft. We did this last year.

[C]

That is. That is the horizon clause.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

The Horizon two clause.

[A]

Yeah, Horizon didn't get released. Last year we redrafted the Alto Knights because the budget was.

[C]

So if something happens with the bride, it gets pushed. You would get to select a different movie.

[A]

Are you going to select the bride?

[B]

Yeah, I'll select the bride.

[A]

It looks like a mess. And I've seen some tracking on it because it's coming out in March. Yeah, yeah. And tracking not great.

[B]

And it's because I thought it was. Didn't qualify.

[A]

The one thing they have going for them is that Jesse Buckley is the star and she's gonna win an Oscar for Hammond.

[B]

But people are gonna care.

[A]

Nobody knows who Jesse Buckley. Buckley is.

[B]

There's the other thing, I guess is there's like basically nothing to see in the first couple months of the year. And there are, I will say, Warner Brothers coming off a great year last year has a couple of movies. I'm very concerned about Digger, the Tom Cruise movie. Well, I thought about Digger.

[C]

That was mine.

[A]

That's what I was thinking about. I have heard that that's pretty good.

[B]

I don't see. Yeah. Inya, Ritu and CRU combo is just not something I want to bet against. Yeah, but, and, but, but they have Wuthering Heights and the Bride.

[A]

Craig's very into weathering Heights. I, I, I, I'm not going to bet against that. I think the tracking on that, that's also coming out soon. Tracking on that is like decent.

[B]

Right.

[A]

So I'm not going to bet against that also. It's like 80 million. I don't think it qualifies.

[C]

So should we have Lucas pick a contingency movie just in case the bride budget comes in below 150? No, I get.

[B]

Because I'm going to get a few days to figure out what my. Oh, you didn't get an advantage here.

[A]

That's okay. I had that last year.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

Yeah, I had that last year.

[B]

I actually almost went project Hail Mary there just because it's so expensive.

[A]

Yeah. But I still think Gosling, Sci Fi, the Martian, Miller. I don't Martian. AUDIENCE okay, so Craig, please recount the selections.

[C]

Okay, so Lucas had the first pick in the draft. Lucas's team is Spider Man. Brand New Day, Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie, the Odyssey, Mandalorian and Grogu, Dune Messiah, Jumanji 3, Devil Wears Prada 2. And the bomb from Matt is Masters of the Universe. Matt's team with the second Pick, Toy Story 5, Avengers, Doomsday, Minions 3, the Moana Live Action Movie, Michael Disclosure Day, Hunger Games, Sunrise on the Reaping and His Bomb from Lucas is the bride.

[A]

Wow, this is pretty good.

[C]

Initial reactions. I think I like Lucas.

[A]

Oh, why? Just because he has all franchises? I have a couple cards.

[B]

I was with you until your. Probably until your disclosure day. Pick.

[C]

Masters of the Universe is a great bomb.

[B]

I think that I just looked at the calendar again. I think that Toy Story will be the biggest movie of the year. And Spider man felt like the surest thing on the calendar.

[A]

Okay, no, that's. No, I'm not gonna fault you for that.

[C]

It's a jam packed slate this year. I feel like each of your top.

[B]

Five picks, it's a much bigger movie. The only. But I was. One of the reasons I say that is I went back and looked at June and the first half of June, assuming Master of the Universe doesn't do well, is like pretty sparse. So I think one of the reasons maybe that picking second has been an advantage is because if you pick first, you go a little more chalk. And if you pick second, you have to take more risks. And the movie business is all about taking risks. And so you take a couple big swings.

[A]

I thought I had a sure thing. We were talking about changing the rules last year because I got Avatar and Jurassic World, right? And like Avatar did fine, 1.5, 1.6. But like that's not going to do it for your biggest movie of the year. And you. Where did you pick Zootopia first? Oh, you did okay. And I. I was very minded as I kind of shit on that.

[B]

Well, because I think you were just being a personality because the first. The clear top three movies were Avatar, Zootopia and Jurassic, it seemed. But I was never going to take Jurassic first. I was always going to take Lucas.

[C]

Took Minecraft and Lilo and Stitch at his fifth and sixth pick.

[B]

But in fairness, I was going to take Minecraft third. And your reaction when I even thought about it convinced me that I could pocket it.

[A]

Yeah, I know. I overplayed my hand. And you used your millennial Gen Z skills there and picked two movies that were in my blind spot.

[C]

It does feel like it's going to come down to Michael and how big Michael is.

[A]

Oh, you think so?

[B]

No, I. Because.

[A]

And disclosure, Dave. Disclosure day bombs.

[B]

I took a big risk.

[A]

Jumanji is not a big risk.

[B]

No, I'm talking about Odyssey.

[A]

Oh, Odyssey.

[B]

Because there's. There's a world in which it's $500 million.

[A]

Yeah. And I think the floor on that is seven.

[B]

Well, then I'm fine.

[A]

And then the upside is potentially 1.

[B]

2, 13 more than that.

[A]

More than that. If it becomes like the Must see movie this summer. If it's good. Right. Crosses over into all quadrants. I don't know.

[C]

Movies not selected. Hexed, Digger, Supergirl, Project Hail Mary.

[A]

I know we avoided DC and Hopperly.

[B]

Meet Meet the Focker. Or Meet Clarence Focker.

[A]

Whatever.

[C]

Resident Evil, Cat in the Hat.

[B]

I mean, no way.

[A]

No. Godzilla minus zero. That's okay. None of those.

[B]

I mean, Super Supergirl and Hoppers and Fockers were the only three that I thought about.

[A]

I think Fockers will be big, but not that big. Right. I might have picked it. I want it to be good.

[B]

Hoppers is the first. Like, unless you're counting the Sony movie Goat, which I have no idea what to make of Hoppers.

[A]

Oh, my kid's into that.

[B]

He is.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

He'll go with Craig. It's a Stephen Curry movie.

[B]

I was gonna say. Yeah, I was gonna say. I was gonna say Hoppers is the first real kids movie of the year, but I guess we'll count. Goat. Yeah, Goat.

[A]

No, I mean, for nine year old boys. That's a thing. They're into it. It's a basketball movie. Animated. We're also not picking the Great beyond the JJ Abrams sci Fi movie with Glenn Powell, Jenna Ortega. They just dated that for November 13th.

[B]

So you were joking? You have two Lionsgate movies. I have two Sony movies. Okay, I have two, but one of.

[A]

Them is Spider Man. I mean, come on.

[B]

I have two Universal movies, I have two Disney movies and a Warner Brothers movie.

[A]

Okay?

[B]

I'm evenly distributed. You have three Disney, a Universal, two Lionsgate, and what is your. Oh, no, you have two Universal.

[A]

I have two Universals because Disclosure Day and Minions.

[C]

I would also like to shout out Chris, a fan of the show, who will be tracking these movies for us. He created a website for us.

[A]

Oh, right, yes.

[C]

I've been. I've been corresponding with him. What's it called? I mean, the website.

[B]

Is this the guy from a couple years ago?

[A]

No, no, that was an Excel spreadsheet.

[B]

This is like.

[C]

Chris made an entire website. It's called the Fantasy Box Office, and he tracks our movies. So we will be keeping up with this draft through him. So thank you, Chris.

[A]

Great. I look forward to taking you to another Dodger game in Pittsburgh where tickets are much cheaper. All right, that's the show for today. No call sheet. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We will see you a couple more times this week. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz and Allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into Sign up for your $1 per month [e-mail] specialoffer.