The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The 2026 Box Office Draft

Date: January 19, 2026
Host: Matt Belloni
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), producer Craig Horbeck

Episode Overview

This episode features the fourth annual "Box Office Draft," a head-to-head competition where Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw predict the top-grossing Hollywood releases for 2025. Using both industry insight and personal hunches, the hosts alternate in picking potential blockbusters, balancing box office expectations against production budgets to determine the most profitable movies. The draft covers anticipated franchise releases, risky original entries, and the all-important "bomb pick"—a big-budget film expected to flop.

Episode Structure

• [00:00] Introduction and rules
• [02:20] Recap of last year’s draft and rivalry banter
• [04:13] Trivia for draft order
• [06:01] The 2026 Box Office Draft begins (film-by-film picks)
• [17:55] Sponsor break
• [18:14] Draft resumes: mid and late-round picks
• [27:58] Final picks and selection of bomb movies
• [32:33] Recap of each team’s slate
• [33:10] Reflections and analysis on the draft
• [36:36] Studio and genre distribution
• [36:50] Shoutout to listener maintaining the Fantasy Box Office website
• [37:12] Closing remarks

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Rules and Stakes

• Each host drafts 7 movies projected to release in 2025.
• Box office grosses are tallied globally; production budgets are subtracted to calculate net earnings.
• Each gets to assign one big-budget "bomb" (≥$100M cost) to the opponent's slate.
• Stakes: Winner gets taken to a Dodger game; ongoing show bragging rights.

Draft Order & Rivalry

• An opening movie trivia question decides draft order: “Most films released by a studio in one year during the sound era?” (Paramount and Warner Bros. at 68 films each in the 1930s).
• Lucas wins the trivia and claims first pick, aiming to break the curse ("every person who’s had the first pick has lost" – [03:18]).
• Light-hearted back-and-forth and sports analogies set the tone for a competitive but friendly draft.

Early Picks – Blockbuster Territory ([06:01]–[10:07])

Both Matt and Lucas agree there are “four, like, no question, billion dollar movies this year” ([06:28]).

1. Lucas: Spider-Man – Brand New Day

   • “Spider-Man has been the most foolproof franchise in Hollywood.” ([06:28], Lucas)
   • Release Date: July 31
   • Risks: Odd summer release date and lack of opening IMAX screens due to Christopher Nolan’s exclusivity.

2. Matt: Toy Story 5

   • “This one cannot lose.” ([07:47], Matt)
   • Early buzz: “Told by multiple people it’s great;... nostalgia that feels fresh.”
   • Release Date: June 19

3. Lucas: Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie

   • “Mario has the highest floor, probably, of any movie we're going to take.” ([08:44], Lucas)
   • Release Date: Most of April
   • Success expectation: “I would be shocked if it didn't hit a billion.” ([09:02], Lucas)

4. Matt: Avengers – Doomsday

   • “It's the Downey factor. To many people, Marvel is Downey and having him back is a big deal.” ([10:07], Matt)
   • Marvel skepticism: “Most recent Marvel movie, Fantastic Four, did 500 million.”
   • Anticipated floor: $1 billion

Mid-Round Picks – Big Franchises, Animation, and Spectacle ([10:56]–[18:14])

• Lucas: The Odyssey (Christopher Nolan)

  • “He has entered the rare pantheon of directors that people just show up [for], whatever it is.” ([11:08], Lucas)
  • Largest risk-reward profile: possible Oppenheimer/Barbie effect if it crosses over.

• Matt: Minions 3

  • “Wildly consistent, incredibly consistent.” ([12:57], Matt)
  • Fourth of July release, safe bet for $800–$900 million.

• Lucas: Mandalorian & Grogu (Star Wars)

  • "Can a kids' movie be big?" ([14:08], Lucas)
  • IMAX boost; worries about TV-to-movie translation.

• Matt: Moana (Live Action)

  • “[Moana has] potential to be bigger. I think the music... people love the music.” ([16:53], Matt)
  • Craig and Lucas skeptical millennials care, but Matt argues strong Gen Z/young millennial appeal.

Late Rounds – Calculated Risks and Genre Diversity ([18:14]–[29:00])

• Lucas: Dune Messiah

  • Final franchise entry, Chalamet & Zendaya's star power noted.

• Matt: Michael (Jackson biopic)

  • “This movie could do 500 [million], it could do 1.5 billion.” ([20:32], Matt)
  • Compared to Bohemian Rhapsody; potential international juggernaut.

• Lucas: Jumanji 3

  • Safe family play, driven by overseas markets.

• Matt: Disclosure Day (Spielberg)

  • “Spielberg’s last movie to gross more than $500 million worldwide [was] Ready Player One.” ([22:47], Matt)
  • Described as personal wishcasting; debate over Spielberg's current box office value.

• Lucas: Devil Wears Prada 2

  • “Nostalgia thing really matters.” ([24:06], Lucas)
  • First female-skewing pick; betting on intergenerational nostalgia.

• Matt: Hunger Games – Sunrise on the Reaping

  • Thanksgiving slot; aiming to revitalize the franchise and benefit from a favorable corridor.

The “Bomb” Picks – Big Risks ([27:58]–[32:33])

• Matt assigns Lucas: Masters of the Universe

  • “Everything about this screams trouble... Jared Leto is in this movie. He plays Skeletor, who's basically box office boys.” ([28:48], Matt)
  • June release slot often spells trouble for expensive, unproven properties.

• Lucas assigns Matt: The Bride

  • “I've seen some tracking on it... not great.” ([31:10], Matt)
  • Uncertainty about budget affecting eligibility; Jesse Buckley starring.

Other Considered Bombs and "What Ifs"

• Several other risky, big-budget titles discussed:
  • Supergirl, Wuthering Heights, Digger (Tom Cruise), Project Hail Mary (Gosling sci-fi), the new Pixar movie, etc.

Draft Recap ([32:33])

Lucas’s Team

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
2. Super Mario Bros. Galaxy
3. The Odyssey
4. The Mandalorian and Grogu
5. Dune Messiah
6. Jumanji 3
7. Devil Wears Prada 2

• Bomb: Masters of the Universe

Matt’s Team

1. Toy Story 5
2. Avengers: Doomsday
3. Minions 3
4. Moana (Live Action)
5. Michael
6. Disclosure Day
7. Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

• Bomb: The Bride

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Draft Trends & Curse:
  “So far every person that has had the first pick in the draft has lost.” ([03:18], Craig)
• Animated Blockbusters’ Pull:
  “Toy Story 5. This one cannot lose.” ([07:47], Matt)
• On Audience Segments:
  “Women will be in the majority of the audience.” ([25:00], Lucas, re: Devil Wears Prada 2)
• Cynicism for Big Bets:
  “This could be our social media clip. Not knowing how to pronounce [Galitzine].” ([29:23], Matt)
• On Blockbuster Predictability:
  “I think the marketing already seems lame to me, but Disney put out a release saying that they got like a billion views... it’s the Downey factor.” ([10:07], Matt)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [04:13] – Box office trivia for draft order and rule twist explanation.
• [06:01] – Draft begins: top four ‘sure-thing’ picks.
• [10:07] – Marvel optimism versus skepticism.
• [11:04] – Nolan pick; speculation on The Odyssey’s ceiling and IMAX impact.
• [14:08] – Star Wars: Mandalorian’s move to the big screen, TV vs. film dilemma.
• [16:52] – Animated/live-action nostalgia: Moana and generational appeal.
• [20:32] – The Michael pick: international appeal, biopic comparisons.
• [22:47] – Risk profile of Disclosure Day (Spielberg).
• [24:00] – Devil Wears Prada 2: female audience and nostalgia sequels.
• [27:58] – Bomb picks: logic, studio hesitations, production gossip.
• [32:33] – Drafted movie lists recapped and teams analyzed.
• [33:10] – Strategic reflections: risk profiles and what might swing the draft.
• [36:50] – Shout-out to fan-made Fantasy Box Office tracking site.

Final Thoughts

This year’s draft is characterized by a rich blockbuster slate, but also heightened risk, with both hosts forced to venture beyond slam-dunk IPs due to deep franchise competition. Key factors debated include IMAX access, nostalgia's complex power, overseas markets, and the unknowns of streaming-hyped properties making theatrical plays.

Ultimately, consensus is that box office in 2025 will hinge on a few monster hits (Toy Story 5, Spider-Man, Avengers), but surprises—possibly from high-variance gambles like Nolan’s The Odyssey or Michael (Jackson biopic)—could decide the draft’s winner.

For listeners:
This episode delivers a fast-paced, inside-Hollywood look at the calculus behind box office prognostication, punctuated by friendly rivalry, sharp industry insight, and a real-time simulation of the bets shaping major studio strategies in 2026.