← The Town with Matthew Belloni
Loading summary
Transcript193 lines
- [00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting Beef from creator, writer and director Lee Seung Jin. The latest installment of the eight time Emmy winning anthology series features an all new cast with an all new beef starring Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, Charles Melton, Kalee Spaeny and legendary Korean actors Yoon Yu Jung and Song Kang Ho. Esquire raves it's hands down the best TV show of the year and USA Today hails it an exquisite masterpiece Beef for your Emmy Awards consideration, This episode of the Town is presented to you by AMC Networks. Billy Magnuson and Zach Galifianakis star in the new series the Audacity on AMC and amc. Plus influence rises, people unravel and CEO meltdowns are business as usual among Silicon Valley elite. Executive produced by Jonathan Glatzer, a writer producer of Succession and Better Call Saul. Watch new episodes of the Audacity Sundays exclusively on AMC and AMC. It is Thursday, April 30, tomorrow's May 1. So it's officially summer in Hollywood. Which means the summer movie season is upon us. Which means the town's summer movie confidence scale is back. Craig, at this point I think we need some fanfare for this episode. For if you're not familiar, this is when I invite Scott Mendelson on the show. He's our resident box office guru. He writes for Puck and has his own substack about box office and we rank the big movies based on how confident we are that each one will live up to expectations. This summer is going to be interesting because everyone in town seems to be cautiously enthusiastic based on the successes of the spring months, the overall gross being up double digits over last year. There's some heavy hitters as well. Toy Story, minions, big directors, Nolan, Spielberg, but also some big question marks like the first Star wars movie in seven years and a Supergirl spinoff. That means there will be winners and losers and hopefully we'll identify them here first today or embarrass ourselves trying. It's the summer blockbuster confidence scale from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. Okay, we are here with Scott Mendelsohn, our box office guru. Another round of the summer movie confidence scale. Scott, are you going to try to put Michael into your calculus here? You cannot do that.
- [02:27]
B
It's at the top of my list. I'm most confident that it will be successful.
- [02:31]
A
It came out last weekend, so you not. You know what, I am curious though. Adam Fogelson said on the show yesterday that he thinks it could get to a Billion. Do you believe it can based on current trajectories?
- [02:40]
B
Not offhand, just because it's more of a known entity than Bohemian Rhapsody turned out to be, but still, I mean, there's a lot of wiggle room between and Elvis, which is the next biggest grossing musical biopic at least for now, and Bohemian Rhapsody, which did around 905.
- [02:55]
A
So sure. So you think it'll be somewhere in
- [02:58]
B
between there in the higher end, but yes.
- [03:00]
A
Yeah, I think it'll get to eight. Eight, maybe nine. I don't think a billion, but we shall see. All right, so here are the rules. If you're not familiar listening. We go through 13 movies that are set for release this summer which we have identified as the potential biggest movies of the summer. We give them a score based 1 through 13. One being the lowest confidence. We have no confidence in that movie. 13 being the highest confidence. It's going to exceed wildly the expectations that people have for it. We go through it all and at the end we'll have a wild card. A movie that you and I will pick that we think could be a sneaky breakout the this summer. All right, so let's start. Got to start. We're going to go chronologically here. So this weekend, start opening tomorrow. The devil wears Prada 2 from Disney. What do you think?
- [03:54]
B
Well, the caveat before we jump into this because I think there are a lot of relatively safe bets. You're going to see some presumably very successful movies with very low numbers by default because Mean Craig only lets us use each number once.
- [04:07]
A
That's the point. We got to have a ranking here. Not everything. We can't have confidence for everything.
- [04:13]
B
That being said on this scale, you have Devil Wears Prada, which is an over under 100 million dollar sequel that's gonna open with at least 60, give or take, maybe a lot more.
- [04:23]
A
The tracking is at 73 on NRG right now.
- [04:26]
B
Okay. Yeah, sure. So I mean it might do as well as Michael. So yeah, 12.
- [04:29]
A
Oh, you're 12 on this one. Okay. See, I have 10.
- [04:33]
B
Fair.
- [04:34]
A
I think it's gonna do well. I think that, you know, the Last1 did 326 million in 2006. This one is going to blow past that, I think. I haven't done the calculus for inflation, but I think this one could get to 4 or 500. But I think that given what Disney has done for this movie and the marketing campaign and the release date, that's the expectation for this one. They put money into this and they think it's going to perform really well. And I think it's going to open. The reviews that came out today were not great. They. They sort of hid the ball on those and had the fan reactions go first, which is a, you know, typical summer movie tactic. But you'd think maybe this one would have gotten good reviews, and it's kind of not. So I think that it's. It's going to do very well. I think it's going to do about a 10 on my confidence scale.
- [05:26]
B
Yes. And if this needs to be clarified, this isn't a matter of what I think will be the biggest or lowest grossing, whatever. I mean, do I think it's going to do to infinity and beyond? I don't know. But terms of what it needs to do to be successful, it's already in the bag.
- [05:39]
A
Yeah. Oh, sure, it's a win. There'll probably be a Devil Wars Pride of three in five years. You know, Meryl Streep's willingness, the factor there. But millennial nostalgia for the win. Okay, May 8th, this is where it gets interesting. Mortal Kombat 2. This movie came on tracking at 50 million opening weekend, and I was shocked when I saw that because the first one only did 84 million total, and that was in April of 2021, and it was day and date on Max. So big asterisk there. The budget for this one is only about 80 million, so it's not like one of those $200 million tent poles that has to perform really well. What's your confidence?
- [06:22]
B
Again with the caveat that I. I'm relatively confident this one by default ended up with a 4. But the reason I'm relatively confident 4.
- [06:31]
A
Really.
- [06:33]
B
What's interesting about the first Mortal Kombat is that it was the most watched movie of 2021 on HBO Max. Among the Project Popcorn releases, those are
- [06:42]
A
the ones that went directly to streaming the day and date of release in theaters.
- [06:46]
B
To the extent that, like follow ups to Project Popcorn, biggies like Dune and Conjuring and Godzilla v Kong, they all opened spectacularly well compared to their relative predecessor. There was a certain breakout sequel nature, at least in North America. So it stands to reason that people that watched Mortal Kombat at home liked it and will theoretically show up for the sequel. The only reason I'm less confident is because maybe I'm wrong. People liked Mortal Kombat, but they weren't like jumping over the moon for it. Like it was, for example, you know, Dune versus Dune two or even, you know, Conjuring three. Oh, it's nice to see them again. And then conjuring four. It's the end of an era. Let's all go celebrate. This is just another Mortal Kombat movie.
- [07:26]
A
Carl Urban, how dare you. You are diminishing. Karl Urban. Star power here.
- [07:31]
B
No comment. That being said, if there are enough Babalities, which is a move in one of the games where you turn your foe into a baby, then 15 by default.
- [07:42]
A
I don't even want to know what that is, but I'm giving it a seven. I'm putting it right in the middle. I think that that that 50 million tracking number has since come down a little. It's at 48 this week, so they have a little work to do there. But that's a big number for this. And I think this movie could get to 2,300 billion, which is a win.
- [07:59]
B
Yes.
- [08:00]
A
You know, mid tier, it's not going to be a huge blockbuster, but I think the end of the summer, we'll. We'll categorize this one as a win. Moving on. Memorial Weekend, Mandalorian and Grogu. This one is going to be fascinating because the Rise of Skywalker, the most recent Star wars movie, opened to 177 million, got to a billion, even though it was widely panned and has become among the most hated of all Star wars projects. That one was the conclusion of a trilogy and conclusion of nine movies. So I don't think we can really give it a comp there. Looking back a little bit, Rogue one opened to 155 million. And solo, which is considered the disastrous, you know, Lord and Miller, fired Ron Howard, took over. Even that one opened to 84 million. How confident are you in Jon Favreau's ability to relaunch Star Wars?
- [08:57]
B
I'm relatively a seven, by the way.
- [08:59]
A
Oh, you're giving Mandalorian Grogu a seven?
- [09:01]
B
There's reports that it costs around 175, 180, you're correct. Then a, that's like 100 million less than Solo. And the thing with Solo is that A, nobody wanted it, B, there was nothing in there to appeal to people that weren't in on the pitch immediately. And the fact that it made only 103 million over its domestic debut four days was a problem because A, it was very front loaded. That was from A, $35 million Friday. And B, that was amid good but not superlative reviews, mixed buzz and miserable, like 65 million over overseas.
- [09:36]
A
Okay, but you're comparing Mandalorian to the biggest disaster of the Star wars universe.
- [09:43]
B
Yes. And this is why? I'm more confident. It's cheaper and it has a lot more, you know, whatever. Just show up and play the. The pitch for this film has mostly been Lilo and Stitch, but with Baby Yoda in a Star wars universe, and that's a good pitch. I'm even more confident because Lilo and
- [09:59]
A
Stitch was a successful theatrical movie. The Mandalorian is a Disney plus series. So they have to convince people this is theatrical.
- [10:06]
B
Yes.
- [10:06]
A
And I think they're doing a. A good job with that in some of these materials they've put out. But I have it as a three on the confidence scale only when compared to what a typical Star wars movie should open to. The early numbers I've seen are, like, in the 90, 100 million range, and that's for the four day, and that's fine, but that's not Star Wars.
- [10:33]
B
Yes. In a vacuum, I agree with you. That being said, if it's well received, well liked, yada, yada yada, it will leg out like, you know, Little Mermaid, Aladdin, et cetera, et cetera.
- [10:44]
A
Yeah. Not much coming after it.
- [10:45]
B
No. And if I may, I was incredibly impressed by the prologue that was showed at Cinemacon a couple weeks ago.
- [10:53]
A
Yeah, it was good.
- [10:53]
B
I went from, oh, this movie exists, and I guess Jon Favreau was good at this stuff, to, oh, my goodness, I very much want to see this. And I spoke to people that had never seen any of the show that enjoyed what they saw. So it's very newbie friendly.
- [11:06]
A
It's a Mandalorian kicking ass for about 15 minutes. That's cool.
- [11:11]
B
Yes. And there's very little of, you know, Baby, Baby Yoda trying to steal every seed, which is encouraging, Right?
- [11:18]
A
Yeah. Others had different impressions of that footage, but I did enjoy it, and I think so. So you're more confident in it than I am, but I'm only comparing it against Star wars, and I think that's going to be the challenge for Disney is to convince people that this is restarting the franchise. This is not to be compared against
- [11:35]
B
the Skywalker, which is why, assuming it's good, well received, yada, yada yada, the hope is that on a curve, it's treated more like a Batman Begins than An Amazing Spider Man. So if it does 600 and change worldwide and everybody loves it, then awesome. Wonderful.
- [11:50]
A
Right? All right, Moving on to June 5th, Masters of the Universe. There's two movies on this date. There's Masters of the Universe and there's scary movie 6. This is going to be a fascinating weekend because I have Masters of the Universe as my one. So do I. I am the least confident in this movie of all of the movies this summer. I don't even know what to comp this movie to. Is it Dungeons and Dragons from 2023?
- [12:19]
B
Somewhere between Dungeons and Dragons and maybe Power Rangers.
- [12:23]
A
Okay. But Dungeons and dragons opened to 37 million and got to 205 million. That's not enough for a big budget he man movie. That's why I gave this movie to Lucas in our draft. I gave him as a bomb. So I think this movie could open lower than scary movie 6, which I have as an 11 on my confidence scale. I think this is going to be a pretty big hit and way bigger than the expectations given that the last scary movie in 2013 opened to $14 million and did only 1678 million worldwide. So the expectations for scary movie 6 are probably low. And some of the early tracking I seen is extremely strong. And I think there's a demand for this movie. So I'm giving that one an 11 and Masters of the Universe a 1. Where are you on these two?
- [13:15]
B
I agree. I think, look, he man was the first IP that I was ever a fan of. I was psyched when I was seven for the Masters of the Universe movie. But that was 40 years ago. I'm not the first person to say this. Hollywood needs to stop targeting people my age in terms of these big budget fantasy adventure pictures.
- [13:33]
A
No, I just did an interview with a bunch of high school kids. I interviewed them in advance of the summer movies. They didn't know what he man was. They were baffled by Masters of the Universe. Some of a couple of the girls knew who the star was. Nicholas Galzantine. But again, they're not going to a he man movie.
- [13:51]
B
And as far as Scary Movie, I mean, first of all an 11 because I don't know what the budget is, but I can't imagine Paramount went nuts in terms of overspending. So even if it only performs like Scary Movie 2 or Scary Movie 5, which you said over under 70, give or take, that would still be profitable if disappointing. But scary movie one, scary movie three and even scary movie four open with over under $40 million. So when these films hit, they hit big. And there is going to be generational nostalgia for people my age, for better or worse, that showed up to the first one.
- [14:23]
A
Craig's excited. Craig likes all these movies.
- [14:25]
B
Oh, yeah. And there's going to be a certain the way and brothers are back. They got the franchise back after it was somewhat stolen from Them after the second film. Long story, whatever.
- [14:37]
A
Yeah. I'm sure Harvey Weinstein was involved somehow.
- [14:40]
B
And I feel bad because I. I really like Scary Movie 3, even though. Yeah.
- [14:45]
A
And Anna Faris is back. Nice to see her. I. I think that's going to be a sleeper and people are going to be like, holy scary Mov beat. Masters of the Universe.
- [14:54]
B
My. My only quibble, and this isn't even really commercial, is that I was. You know, I remember when Scary Movie came out, the talk was how vulgar and extreme and taboo and all that it was. So I hope they don't try to sell this movie in a way that expects us to forget that. That, oh, this great movie is the first. You know, it's so extreme. It's crossing every line. It's like, yeah, we played that game already and that's fine.
- [15:17]
A
Whatever. That was a long time ago. I think they'll be okay. The materials I've seen so far have been good. All right, let's move on to June12. This one is a heartbreaker for me. Disclosure day. I have it in our draft. It's. I don't know. I have it as a four.
- [15:34]
B
Three.
- [15:35]
A
I. It's. You just can't be confident that it's going to live up to the Spielberg that we all remember. When you look at his track record from the past decade, the only movie that he's directed in the past decade to get to more than 200 million worldwide is ready player one in 2018, which got to 582. Now we can make arguments about whether west side Story would have performed outside of COVID He has gone in different directions and done smaller movies like the Post and like the Fabelmans, but the Spielberg brand as summer blockbuster. I'm a little worried about. Even though the new trailer is much better. The public hasn't seen it yet, but we saw it at Cinemacon. It is much better. What do you think? I have it as a four.
- [16:24]
B
Agreed. I mean, in Beard We Trust, but thus far, Universal is selling this as it's a Steven Spielberg UFO movie in the abstract without. I would argue enough. Okay, but what makes this movie different from whatever. What is specifically this film about? And to general audiences, especially ones that are young enough that, you know, did not grow up on Spielberg, what have you. You know, that's. That's a. That's a challenge. It looks fine. Again, allegedly. None of the third act is in the marketing. Again, in Beard we trust, my one slight. Again, I'm giving it a three. But with the exception of the BFG in 2016. Every time Spielberg has attempted to go explicitly commercial, he has been relatively successful. Even 1941 technically made money, even though everybody hated it. And so theoretically, I mean, like Hook. Oh, no. Yeah, I made 300 million on a 70 budget. So when he goes commercial, including Ready Player One, which was, I think, a much better movie than we were expecting because it was Spielberg. So to the extent that this is a three instead of a one, it's because, yes, he's been making historical melodramas, most of which are very good.
- [17:39]
A
They're all good. The question is not whether it's going to be good. The question is will it perform?
- [17:43]
B
That's what I mean. I mean, yes, the historical melodramas, when you think of his track record of the last decade, they weren't meant to be big box office biggies. But when he goes commercial, he tends to hit.
- [17:54]
A
Okay, so we'll see. All right, so. So you have it as a three, I have it as a four. I hope I'm wrong. I hope this one hits and becomes a thing.
- [18:02]
B
If, even if it bombs, Universal is going to have such a good year this year that it can be there one battle after another. Their prestigious one for me that this is what the Minions pay for.
- [18:12]
A
No, but this was pitched as a one for me. That was the Fableman. This was pitched as. I'm back, baby.
- [18:19]
B
UFOs a one for me, for Universal.
- [18:22]
A
Yeah. Okay. All right. June 19th, Toy Story 5. I have this as my 13. I am the most confident as perhaps I've ever been about a movie. The last one opened to 120 million and did a billion. I think this is going to blow past this. I think what we've seen in recent years with movies like Inside out that just got. Went way bigger. Zootopia 2, that went way bigger than the previous one. If people remember these titles and like what they see in the new one, they go back, they tell their friends, and all of a sudden it's at 1.5 billion.
- [19:03]
B
I would not be surprised if that happens. I would never bet against it, but by default, I'm going to go with 10. Just because there's a few other titles that I'm even more confident.
- [19:13]
A
Well, a few more confident than Toy Story 5 with an iPad as a villain.
- [19:18]
B
Yes. If only because the expectations are such that, like, are they going to find themselves at the defensive if it only does $1.1 billion or some nonsense.
- [19:28]
A
No, I mean, they're judged against the previous installments, both of which Did a billion.
- [19:32]
B
And again, it's a 10. And the only reason it's not a 13 is because I can only give one 13.
- [19:36]
A
All right, well, I think you're underestimating this one. This one is going to. I think this is going to be the biggest movie of the year.
- [19:41]
B
It's.
- [19:42]
A
And I'm including Endgame. Not Endgame. Doomsday.
- [19:45]
B
Yes. We'll get. We'll get close to the end of this. Yes.
- [19:48]
A
Okay, next. Supergirl, June 26th. I have this as a two. I am not confident I was open to it. I enjoyed the Superman movie last summer. It got to 618 worldwide and open to 125. But the footage they showed at Cinemacon, not great. Seems like lesser and kind of a, you know, IP milking. So I am dropping this to a two.
- [20:18]
B
I'm not that much more confident in that. It's a five. The only reason I'm slightly. And again, I was not thrilled about the footage at Cinemacon. It was, you know, the production values was there. It just felt very chaotic and busy in a way that just let them.
- [20:32]
A
Yeah, yeah.
- [20:34]
B
Nothing cool about it, but, you know, we'll see. They're gonna sell this as, you know, female driven superhero. Meet John Wick, which is with the dog that everybody loves. So again, you're gonna have. You're gonna have.
- [20:46]
A
Which is which Millie Alcock revealed is not a real dog, is cgi. Shocker. I hate to break it to everyone. The chimps and Michael, not real cgi.
- [20:57]
B
That being said, I know this is cheaper than Superman. I was assured that it was not like a daredevil. Do Electra come down in terms of budget? Because that sometimes happens with female led superhero movies. Spoiler. Supergirl cost less than Superman 2 in the 1980s.
- [21:13]
A
Oh, God. Are you gonna make a Helen Slater reference?
- [21:15]
B
I am. I just made a Helen Slater reference. She was great. But the movie was. Yeah, but yeah. Assuming this is relatively well received, relatively well reviewed, and it costs a little bit less than Superman. I mean, if it does 500, everyone should be happy because again, this isn't the 2010s where a studio lives or dies on the superhero franchises.
- [21:35]
A
I think we're looking more like 300, 350 for this one, which I think is half of Superman. Not great. This episode is brought to you by FX's the Lowdown from acclaimed Reservation Dogs creator Sterlin Harjo. The series stars five time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawkeye as Lee Raybon, a self described Tulsa Truthsorian whose fixation on the Truth tends to create more problems than it solves. This gloriously off kilter NOIR is an AFI television program of the year and one of 2025's most critically acclaimed shows. The Lowdown is available for your Emmy consideration on Hulu and Disney for bundled subscribers.
- [22:18]
C
Some things work better together, like NARS Soft Matte Complete Concealer and Radiant Creamy Concealer. Soft Matte Complete Concealer erases and blurs imperfections with full coverage. Then Radiant Creamy Concealer evens and brightens with a luxurious texture and radiant finish. Two concealers, one flawless look, perfect for a no foundation base. NARS Better together. Visit Sephora to shop now.
- [22:46]
A
All right, July 3rd minions and monsters the previous Minions Rise of GRU opened to 107 million in 2022 on its way to 940 million. But the most recent in the extended franchise, Despicable Me 4 opened to less than that. 75 million in 2024, but it ended up doing more worldwide. 972. Where are we with this one? Chris Melody seems to be very happy with this one. He showed us two extended sequences at Cinemacon, basically recounted the plot, tried to tell us that this one is about the the love of cinema and the birth of cinema. Basically saying it's Babylon in animated form. I think it, I thought the footage looked great. I have this as an 8 though, because I think that given what Despicable Me for did, I think that this one is going to be probably less than that.
- [23:47]
B
This is a 13 for me.
- [23:49]
A
Oh, no way. We have a big divergence there. You are the most confident of all the summer movies about this because I
- [23:56]
B
can't imagine it cost more than 120. And that's being intentionally hyperbolic.
- [24:00]
A
These films tend to cost, but we're, we're judging expectations. The MIN movies have been hits for 15 years now and, and is this one going to vastly exceed the those expectations? You're saying it is vastly exceed?
- [24:16]
B
Maybe not, but match absolutely. I mean, the consistency of the Minions, Despicable Me sequels, prequels and follow ups have been nuts. I mean, offhand, Despicable Me too did like 9, you know, 9 70. Minions did 1.1.
- [24:30]
A
None got to a billion though.
- [24:31]
B
No, no. Minions got to 1.1 billion.
- [24:33]
A
Oh, it did okay.
- [24:35]
B
It's like, well, me three got to 1 billion and then minions two did like 9:40. And that was with China, like not deliver anything. And then Despicable Me 4 got to like 972. I mean these films make like within 15 of each other.
- [24:51]
A
So you think this one will get to a billion?
- [24:53]
B
Oh, I don't know. I don't think it billion, But I think 850 in a walk.
- [24:57]
A
Then why do you have it at 13 that you're so confident in this movie, but you don't think it's going to get to a billion?
- [25:02]
B
I don't think it has to get to billion, but I'm incredibly confident that I'll get into, you know, 8, 509, 50, whatever.
- [25:08]
A
I think that's. That's about what's expected and does not justify a 13. I'm actually angry at your ranking of 13 for that one. Okay. Live action Moana. That one is the following week. I believe it's July 10th. Where are we on Moana? The how to train your dragon Live action opened to 84 million last summer on its way to 636. Lilo and Stitch got to 146 million in its opening weekend and a billion total. Does the proximity of the Moana animated movie and sequel help or hurt the live action retread at the box office?
- [25:48]
B
I think it hurts by default. I don't think it hurts terribly, but I also think it helps.
- [25:54]
A
It feels too recent. Yeah. The whole point of these live action remakes are nostalgia and how can you be nostalgic for something that was like 10 years ago? I mean, I guess you can. I mean, how to train your dragon was also pretty recently.
- [26:09]
B
2010 has been pretty big the last few years. That's partially because today's kids, that's what they grew up on.
- [26:14]
A
I know. It just doesn't. But. But you're not offering anything new here. The materials we're seeing is. It's. It's the movie that you've watched a million times on Disney plus.
- [26:23]
B
I agree. And I'm. What. What's your. Forgive me. Do you want to.
- [26:27]
A
That's why I have it as a five.
- [26:28]
B
Six.
- [26:29]
A
I think it's going to perform. I mean, if you look at the numbers on these movies, they all do fine and it's going to do okay. I just don't think it has breakout potential like a Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin. Things that had value add elements to them. I just don't think. You know, the rock was in the first one. So it's just more of the Rock. Like, it's not like having Will Smith as the genie.
- [26:56]
B
Yeah, that's basically what I was about to say is that even some of the other remakes or whatever you want to call them, like, it's Angelo Jolie as maleficent that's interesting. It's Will Smith as the genie. Well, that's interesting. It's the Rock as Maui. Well, we already saw that, so.
- [27:10]
A
I know. And his hair is ridiculous. I'm sorry.
- [27:12]
B
You know, the rest of the movie looks okay for what it is, but then when he show, at least in the footage we saw, when he shows up, it starts to look like, you know, a commercial. You know, whether or someone shows up and they reprise their iconic character to hawk a product. I know that's a little disrespectful, but it is what it is, right?
- [27:30]
A
He's going to whip out his tequila at any moment. All right, so I have it as a five. Where. What number do you have it?
- [27:35]
B
Six.
- [27:35]
A
Six. Okay, so we're about the same on that. It'll be an interesting one because obviously it's huge on streaming and very beloved property, but too soon. Too soon. Disney. All right. The Odyssey. Mid July, the Nolan release. Oppenheimer, open to 82 million. Got to 975. Obviously, Barbenheimer was a big factor in that one. We'll never know how much. This one, much more commercial, much more, much bigger feeling. Still, it's got, you know, dad movie, History Channel vibes to it. Where are you on it?
- [28:15]
B
With the caveat that I think it will be successful in terms of rate of return and all that. Jazz Innate for a couple reasons. First of all, the expectations could be unrealistic to the point where it ends up on the defensive. If it only does, like, Inception numbers in North America and interstellar numbers worldwide.
- [28:33]
A
That's exactly my thought. You and I and all the people that cover this stuff are so excited for this movie. And the cheers at Cinemacon for the Trojan Horse sequence were amazing. I have it as a nine around where you do, because I think that the expectations here are so high that when it opens fine, people are going to be like, wait, what are we talking about here? Chris Nolan just got spanked by Spider Man. Yeah, of course. Chris Nolan got spanked by Spider Man. Like, that's. That's kind of how it works.
- [29:05]
B
And that's what happened with Interstellar, where I had to write, like, you know why it's not a flop after it only opened to $49 million. And then it legged out to 189 domestic and 677 worldwide, not counting reissues. And this might happen here, too. And the only reason. And again, it will make, at worst, most of the money, if not all the money. So if it only makes most of the Money. It's that it's probably. And again, I have not seen the film. It's probably going to be something less of a surprise and more of a known entity than Oppenheimer turned out to be. At the end of the day, if this film is essentially what you think of in your head when you say, oh, Chris Nolan is making the Odyssey again, that's still presumably will be very good. He's got a killer cast. I mean, Holland Hathaway, Damon, Lupita Nyong', O, who I think is a butts and seats star, relatively speaking.
- [29:53]
A
You think Lupita Nyong' o is a butts in seat star?
- [29:56]
B
She works very rarely and she has the. The sort of a Jodie Foster thing where she has such a sheen of quality that people know that if she joins a project, it's worth paying attention to.
- [30:07]
A
Interesting. So you think people showed up for the Quiet Place prequel because of her?
- [30:11]
B
Some people did, yes. And I certainly gave it the benefit of the doubt that I might not otherwise have given it.
- [30:15]
A
Okay, yeah, I would say Zendaya is a much.
- [30:18]
B
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- [30:19]
A
Her too then. And you know, I don't think Anne Hathaway is a butts and seats star unless it's like Devil Wears Prada.
- [30:24]
B
But added value.
- [30:25]
A
Matt Damon. Matt Damon is. And Tom Holland and you know, when he's in a Spider man promotion cycle.
- [30:30]
B
Oh. I mean, Hathaway has such a long history of doing quirky and or very good pieces of Pulp Fiction that I also think she gives a certain benefit of the doubt when she joins a given project.
- [30:41]
A
But it doesn't matter. Nolan is the star here. Nolan is the reason people are interested in this.
- [30:47]
B
But the cast helps. Just like, you know, Jimmy Stewart helped Hitchcock back in the day.
- [30:51]
D
Does the movie need to get to for it to be considered a huge win?
- [30:53]
A
Thank you, Craig. Thank you.
- [30:55]
B
What.
- [30:55]
A
What does Odyssey need to get to? Does it get to a billion? Like, what is the barometer?
- [30:59]
B
I'm assuming it didn't cost more than 250. Mea culpa. If it ends up costing Avatar numbers.
- [31:04]
A
No, I think it's more. But. But.
- [31:05]
B
Okay, let's assume it cost Avatar 3, which was cheaper than Avatar 2. Let's say 800.
- [31:11]
A
You think it's going to get to 800? I think it could get to 9 or even a billion.
- [31:16]
B
But again, if it's good, if it's well received, blah, blah, blah, 750. I won't. You'll be upset.
- [31:22]
A
Yeah, that. That's the big wild card. I hope it does. Spider Man. Brand New Day, July 31. Kind of late in the season for what could be the biggest movie of the summer. Right. Why are they going this late?
- [31:38]
B
I think partially because the Odyssey took the date that you know well in advance because that's Nolan's favorite date. I think this is about when Spider man no Way Home was going to open in pre Covid time. So middle late July 2021. This is about when Deadpool and Wolverine open. So it sits. And it also.
- [31:58]
A
I was going to say it's the Deadpool slot. And then you have all of August.
- [32:01]
B
Exactly. Because of that. There's like nothing big in August. So, you know, those two movies are just going to run the table as well through Labor Day.
- [32:09]
A
So no Way home. Open to 260 million in 2021. Unbelievable homecoming. The first of the Holland movies. 117 million. This is being pitched as a kind of quasi reboot with the same actors, different director Destin, Daniel Cretton taking over. But as far as we've seen so far, there's not, you know, they don't have a hook like all three spider men in it. They probably have other stuff that we don't know about. And they. Oh, don't Forget Vist. Not VistaVision, Infinity Vision. They're going to market the PLF screens as Infinity Vision because Nolan has all of the IMAX screens. So look for that.
- [32:56]
B
I really hope Sony has the cast of Jumanji Cut a clip where they make fun of those. All the ways you can see Sinners and Brunch, Kilmari where they're all exasperately explaining that there's only one way to see Jumanji. Open World 3D. No IMAX? No, just one. Just theaters. Anyway.
- [33:14]
A
No, they should call it Jumanji Vision.
- [33:16]
B
That works too.
- [33:19]
A
All right. So is this going to be the biggest movie of the summer? Where are you on the confidence?
- [33:25]
B
If I were. If I had to make a bet, I'd say that this is the biggest movie of the year.
- [33:29]
A
You think so? Especially bigger than Toy Story, bigger than Doomsday.
- [33:35]
B
It has the positive momentum in a way that frankly the Avengers franchise overall does not. People like, you know, spoiler people like the last Spider man movie quite a bit. And no, this isn't going to be as big as no Way Home any more than any Star wars movie could have been expected to live up to the Force Awakens. Frankly, that was also sort of a multi generational, multi whatever nostalgia super event. This is just a Spider man movie. And partially, I Think.
- [34:03]
A
Yeah. But Tom Holland and Zendaya are bigger than they have ever been. They will have just been in the Odyssey two weeks before. I think that matters.
- [34:15]
B
Oh, absolutely. It will help. And frankly, I mean, maybe I'm the only one that cares, but I am excited for this because I like movies that Destin Daniel Grenton makes. I thought Shang Shi was awesome. I love Just Mercy. I love Short term 12. I appreciate the Glass House. Now, that might not matter to regular audiences, but if it turns out to be.
- [34:34]
A
No, it doesn't. But. But he will get the small moments. Right. That's what I liked about the footage at Cinemacon is that it was. It was actually credible as a college.
- [34:43]
B
So, I mean, the only reason I'm giving it a nine is because I ran out of high numbers.
- [34:46]
A
A nine.
- [34:47]
B
Well, I ran out of high numbers.
- [34:50]
A
Okay. I. I have it as a 12.
- [34:52]
B
Yeah. And again, if we were all, like, allowed to do different numbers, like several. These will all be 13. But anyway, the only caveat.
- [34:59]
A
But you say it's going to be the biggest movie of the year, and you gave it a nine.
- [35:03]
B
Well, am I confident in that? Am I as confident in that as I am as, say, minions 3 making more than enough that it needs? The only danger is that if it does, you know, Spider man, far from home money, which did like 1.1 billion in 2019, and they're like, oh, no, but, you know, no way Home did 1.9. It's a disappointment. But barring that, I think it'll be fine because it looks good. It's a Spider man movie. You have the cast, as you said. And I think it's lack of distinct connection to the MCU at this point. That's a feature, not a book.
- [35:34]
A
Well, no, they're counting on whatever Avengers drop is in this movie to help fuel Doomsday. There will be stuff that leads into Doomsday. You know it.
- [35:45]
B
Oh, absolutely. And it is grimly ironic, considering the tug of war between Sony and Disney in the 2010s, that now Sony's Spider man and arguably Spider Verse are the two most valuable superhero properties in town.
- [36:00]
A
Yeah. Considering that they leveraged the Disney MCU to relaunch Spider man with Tom Holland. And that was a big part of why Sony let Disney into the franchise. And now it's the other way. But funny. Okay, so August 14th, our final movie here, the End of Oak Street. This is a horror movie with Anne Hathaway. God, she is literally everywhere this summer.
- [36:26]
B
Yep.
- [36:27]
A
Ewan McGregor, produced by J.J. abrams, directed by David Robert Mitchell. I'm including this here because it has potential to be kind of like a weapons style late summer horror hit based on that. I have it as a six.
- [36:43]
B
I have it at two just by default. I am hopeful that I am wrong. I assume it's going to be more of a PG13 all quadrant thriller. And Weapons. Weapons had a great hook that like these kids disappeared one night and we don't know what the hell happened to them. Everything else they were able to keep to the vest and not reveal anything. This is basically okay. The family's home transported and now they're like in a world with dinosaurs. That's interesting. And again, I'm looking forward to the picture. As I said, I trust Anna Hathaway when she signs on to a movie like this.
- [37:15]
A
It's Warner's though. They'll give it the weapons marketing campaign.
- [37:19]
B
Yeah, it is an original picture. It's not a bone chilling horror film that we know of. And it's going to have an uphill battle. And if I'm wrong, if the WB magic strikes again, awesome. But if I have to bet, I would bet on the other dinosaur movie opening on the same weekend, which is Paw Patrol 3.
- [37:37]
A
Okay, well, wait a second. So we're now going to go into our wild card. We did not include Paw Patrol 3. I just feel like that's such a minor entry here. But I'm going to go for my wild card that I think is going to surprise people. And maybe it's just that I sat through the trailer twice at cinemacons in successive years. I think Sheep Detectives could overperform. It could have a babe effect where people are like, oh, this is delightful. It's like Paddington, except with sheep. And there's stars in it. A lot of stars. You know, Hugh Jackman, Many, many more. I think this movie, the only downside is it's Amazon. I'm not sure they know what to do with this kind of a movie or how to sell it, but I think this movie could surprise. And all of a sudden we wake up, it's at a couple hundred million.
- [38:29]
B
I am also relatively bullish on the Sheep Detective for all the reasons you stated. Apparently the embargo dropped. I'm a little behind on press screenings, but it's pretty good. That being said, my Sleeper or Dark Horse, whatever you want to call it. The Amazing Digital Circus. The Last act, which is something that I had never seen.
- [38:47]
A
I'm sorry, that's the title.
- [38:48]
B
Yes, I believe so. It is the either forgive me, I'm A little behind on this one. It's a YouTube animated series that has a huge following on YouTube. They're putting the last episode of the show in theaters about two weeks or so before it drops on YouTube. This is one where the pre sales have been going nuts.
- [39:07]
A
And anecdote, is there a studio involved or is this self release? Who's releasing this?
- [39:11]
B
I think it's self release, but don't quote me on that because the show is also on Netflix, so there might be. You know, I should have looked this up.
- [39:19]
A
Netflix doesn't do theatrical, so they were to get a partner, but Interesting. So you think this movie will become a markiplier style release and do well?
- [39:28]
B
Yes. And you know, it could be. I don't want to oversell it here, but you know, if it opens bigger than say, Masters of the Universe because they open on the same weekend, lesson learned. Maybe not more.
- [39:39]
A
More competition for he man.
- [39:40]
B
Yeah, it's something that kids actually like.
- [39:43]
A
He could lose to Scary movie and a YouTube show.
- [39:46]
B
Yep. An acquaintance of mine tagged me in a Facebook post about this picture. It was not on my radar and I'm sort of looking at the face of the post and both of my older kids go, wait, wait, scroll back up. What is that? And they had heard of it. They were aware of it and they were interested in seeing it in theaters. You know what? They're not interested in seeing Masters of the Universe.
- [40:08]
A
Yeah, no, I know Amazon. Come on.
- [40:10]
B
What.
- [40:11]
A
What's going on there? But. All right, so your pick is a title that I can't repeat because I don't remember. It's too long. And mine is Sheep Detective.
- [40:20]
B
Yeah, and I'm. I'm bullish on that one too.
- [40:22]
A
Craig, does anything stand out here as being totally wrong or embarrassing?
- [40:26]
D
Not really. You guys have a pretty common top five. The biggest discrepancies are Minions and monsters. There's basically like a five point difference between the two of you. And then Scott is more confident in Supergirl. Those are pretty much the two biggest discrepancies.
- [40:41]
A
All right, well, we shall see. As usual, we will have an end of summer accountability episode where we go through and figure out who was right and who was wrong. Yeah, that should be fun. All right, Scott, thanks very much.
- [40:55]
B
You're very welcome. It's always a pleasure. And all hail the Minions.
- [40:59]
A
All right, no call sheet today. I want to thank my guest, Scott Mendelson for producer Craig Horlbeck. Editor Jon Jones. And I want to thank you. We will see you next week.
- [41:11]
E
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint mobile with a message for everyone Paying big Wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month, of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment
- [41:33]
C
of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com she does a lot for your family.
- [41:42]
F
Mother's Day is your chance to show her. You see it with a gift from a brand trusted for generations to help people get the moment right. 1-800-flowers with double blooms from 1-800-flowers buy one dozen roses and get another dozen for free. It's a bigger gesture backed by 50 years of experience delivering fresh flowers so you can feel confident sending something that lands. Show up for her with double blooms at 1-800-FLowers.com Spotify that's 1-800-FLowers. Com Spotify.