Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Battles Over the Box Office of ‘One Battle After Another’
Date: September 29, 2025
Host: Matthew Belloni
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)

Overview

This episode unpacks the box office performance and industry significance of Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film, “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio. Host Matthew Belloni and guest Lucas Shaw analyze what the debut numbers signal for Warner Brothers’ auteur-driven strategy, broader studio politics, and the temperature in Hollywood for high-budget original projects. The conversation also touches on Warner’s studio management, film industry economics, the potential impact of studio mergers, and a perspective on AI actors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Opening for “One Battle After Another”

• Numbers: $22.4M domestic, ~$48.5M worldwide opening weekend—biggest ever for PTA but still underwhelming for DiCaprio and the film’s budget (~$130–$145M).
• Context:
  • Largest opening for Anderson, but not for DiCaprio (“lowest opening for a DiCaprio movie since J. Edgar in 2011, if we adjust for inflation.” [03:20])
  • Heavy reliance on IMAX and PLF screens (nearly 50% of revenue).
  • Good reviews and an “A” CinemaScore, sparking debate about its legs.
• High Risk:
  • Warner’s needs $300M+ at the global box office for success ("This movie has to gross about $300 million to be considered a success." [05:46])
  • Stakes higher due to the cost compared to recent hits like “Sinners” and “Weapons,” which were cheaper.

Quote:

“Anytime the big boast is that it's the record for a filmmaker when the filmmaker has never made a hit movie is… Don't get me wrong: great filmmaker, but not a commercial one.” — Lucas Shaw [05:12]

2. Exporting Auteur-Driven High-Budget Cinema

• Risk Analysis:
  • The big bet on Anderson: "I don't understand giving him $140 million... when he's never had a movie gross 100." — Lucas Shaw [08:41]
  • DiCaprio’s appeal justified the spend, but film’s political/factional themes made it more US-centric, limiting international draw.
• Commercial vs. Art:
  • “Calling it a movie that's probably not going to make money in theaters… doesn't mean that the studio and director failed as artists.” — Lucas Shaw [07:22]
  • The value of prestige: Benefits include relationships with auteur directors and critical awards buzz, even if financial results are middling.

Quote:

“They don’t fund movies to be cool, they fund movies to make money. And being cool is a nice bonus.” — Matthew Belloni [07:52]

3. Cultural Penetration and Geographic Audience

• Audience Breakdown:
  • Over-indexed in major liberal cities (72% of box office in “Blue Country” counties).
  • Underperformance in places like Houston and Dallas.
• Cultural Impact:
  • Compared to “Sinners,” “One Battle…” is not a talking point outside film circles.
  • Lacks controversy or culture war relevance—“It's not even on Fox News radar because it's not something that is like enough to make people outraged.” — Matthew Belloni [11:29]

4. Warner Brothers’ 2025 Slate & Strategic Scheduling

• The Streak:
  • Warner Bros. released 11 films in 2025, with 9 hitting #1—a “heater” for studio chiefs Mike DeLuca & Pam Abdy.
  • Hit titles include “Minecraft,” “Sinners,” “Final Destination,” “F1,” “Superman,” “Weapons,” “The Conjuring.”
• Scheduling Gaps:
  • Now facing nearly 5 months with no new releases—a rarity for a major studio.
  • Attributed to risk avoidance amidst internal studio company turmoil and external acquisition rumors.
• Studio Politics & M&A:
  • Recent reports of a potential acquisition by David Ellison/Skydance and the prospect of Warner and Paramount under one owner.

Quote:

"It's like if you're Mike and Pam, you basically have a middle finger to your boss saying, 'Oh, you were going to replace us. We just went on one of the greatest heaters in modern Hollywood history.'" — Matthew Belloni [16:27]

5. Studio Leadership & Budget Realities

• Film Greenlights in Hindsight:
  • Was the DiCaprio/PTA project worth the spend? Both agree: yes, if made for less; as-is, it’s a defensible prestige bet balanced by other commercial hits.
• Oscar Strategy:
  • Oscar value as a business strategy—contenders can offset thin financial wins.
  • “You’re not getting fired. That is the overall worry of studio executives. Is this movie going to get me fired? And I don’t think one battle after another is going to get anybody fired.” — Matthew Belloni [21:33]
• Comparison to Other Auteur Misfires:
  • Bong Joon Ho’s “Mickey 17” had a similar box office but much lower press/fanfare.
  • PTA receives especially gentle coverage from media and film executives.

6. Hollywood Tax Credits & Trump Tariff Talk

• Political Distraction:
  • Recent Trump post about tariffs and film—a non-starter for industry needs; federal tax credits would be more helpful, but are a political long shot.
• Bipartisan Stalemate:
  • No serious Hollywood consensus for Trump’s proposed measures; Republicans unlikely to push Hollywood tax incentives.

Quote:

“No Republican is going to vote for a tax incentive slash giveaway to Hollywood.” — Matthew Belloni [25:50]

7. AI Talent: The “Tilly Norwood” Discussion

• Zurich Summit Buzz:
  • Claims that major agencies want to sign an AI-generated actress—widespread skepticism.
• Agency Realities:
  • Top agencies will avoid AI actors to avoid backlash from human stars.
  • AI as supplemental tool, not replacement, in short-term creative fields.

Quote:

"Of all the ways in which AI is going to affect filmmaking in the near future, I don’t think replacing actors fully with AI actors is going to be one of the big ones." — Lucas Shaw [29:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I want to sit all the filmmakers down and do like an airplane-style slap across the face for all of them.” — Matthew Belloni [05:25]
• “Leo, I think, did matter here. I think it got to where it got to in part because of Leo.” — Matthew Belloni [09:52]
• “Film Twitter may not be real life.” — Matthew Belloni [03:35]
• “It's not. I saw that piece [about the film’s cultural importance] and laughed.” — Lucas Shaw [11:27]
• “It’s a no brainer. You have a movie from a great contemporary filmmaker that’s gotten good reviews, that is going to be a real contender.” — Lucas Shaw [20:35]
• “Middle-aged white men, executives—like, isn’t that the reason?” — Matthew Belloni [23:30]
• “She is not a replacement for a human being, but a creative work, a piece of art.” — AI entrepreneur (quoted by Matthew Belloni) [28:03]
• “You're safe, Margot. You're safe.” — Lucas Shaw (on AI actors) [30:13]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:31] Episode premise & overview of “One Battle After Another”
• [04:01] Guest introduction: Lucas Shaw
• [05:12] PTA’s commercial viability and box office expectations
• [07:52] Art vs. commerce and studio priorities
• [09:44] Leo’s value, international appeal, and tracking
• [10:16] Audience & geographic breakdown (Blue vs. Red counties)
• [13:06] Warner Bros. release strategy and scheduling gap
• [15:28] Studio politics, Zaslav-DeLuca-Abdy relationship stress
• [17:25] Yearly slate size and M&A/ownership speculation
• [19:44] Hindsight on greenlighting the film, Oscar value
• [22:22] Auteur fumbles—comparing PTA, Bong Joon Ho, and press reactions
• [23:42] Culture, coverage, and personal taste in auteurs
• [24:55] Trump tariff post and the real political outlook on tax credits
• [26:41] AI actress “Tilly Norwood” discussion
• [29:53] Reality check on AI’s immediate impact on talent representation

Final Takeaways

• "One Battle After Another" is an artistic, not financial, triumph for Warner Bros., testing how much studios can or should risk on auteur-driven, prestige films.
• Warner Bros. is hailed for smart scheduling and a strong year, but faces significant uncertainty with a long release gap and potential corporate upheaval.
• The industry remains skeptical of AI "actors" crossing into mainstream agency representation, with little risk of disruption to human stars—at least for now.
• The politics of film financing, from state incentives to federal tax credits, remain in gridlock—leaving “tariff talk” as a mere spectacle.
• Amid blockbusters and bottom lines, prestige and awards still matter; studios try to balance risk, reputation, and relationships for long-term legacy.

For listeners and industry-watchers alike, this episode delivers a sharp, insider’s view of the intersecting pressures in modern Hollywood—art, commerce, and cultural change.