The Case for Disney Exiting the Streaming Wars

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Case for Disney Exiting the Streaming Wars
Date: August 7, 2026
Guests: Stephen Cahall (Analyst, Wells Fargo)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into a provocative question facing the Walt Disney Company: Should Disney abandon its direct-to-consumer streaming services and revert to a traditional content licensing model? Host Matthew Belloni is joined by Stephen Cahall, popular Wells Fargo analyst, who recently made headlines by recommending Disney consider exiting the streaming business entirely. Together, they unpack recent Disney earnings, the challenges of streaming, the potential upside of a “content arms dealer” approach, and the company’s strategic crossroads.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Disney’s Current Digital Strategy vs Analyst Critique

• Recent Earnings Recap ([00:59])

  • Disney reports surprising theme park growth (+3% attendance), success with Toy Story 5, NBA Finals, streaming up 11% in revenue due to price/ad hikes.
  • New features: Disney bringing TikTok-style interactivity and considering free ad-supported content.
  • CEO Josh D’Amaro's stated goal: Make Disney the “digital centerpiece” of the company.

• Cahall's Contrarian Take ([04:00])

  • Stephen Cahall (Wells Fargo) argues Disney should exit direct-to-consumer streaming—stop trying to out-Netflix Netflix—and instead focus on creating and licensing hit content, Sony-style.
  • Main driver: Licensing margins are fundamentally better than building/maintaining a global streaming platform.

TikTok and New Digital Initiatives

• Disney-TikTok Move ([03:05])
  • Belloni asks if integrating TikTok-like features is meaningful.
  • Cahall: “I don’t know if I’d call it a game changer… but it can drive youthful eyeballs and time spent” ([03:39]).
  • Both agree it will likely spotlight kids singing Disney songs, highly curated for brand fit.

Why Streaming is Challenging for Disney

• The Volume & Margin Problem ([05:37]–[10:14])

  • Cahall outlines how Netflix’s initial dominance forced Disney into streaming; now, several buyers exist, and the market has matured.
  • Disney’s streaming revenue is high (~$20–25 billion), but costs are “really expensive”: technology, content, churn management, and so on.
  • Disney’s model is “high quality, low volume”—unable to match Netflix/YouTube’s constant “content churn.”
  • Belloni (paraphrasing): “Cable bundle dollars have not turned into streaming dollars.” ([07:51])
  • Cahall: “You have to constantly satisfy your subscribers because [streaming] isn’t bundled with other stuff.”

• Churn and Subscriber Differentiation ([10:39])

  • Disney has diehard fans (“infinitely price inelastic”) but also casuals who “jump around.”
  • The library sustains diehards, but streaming “churn management” is a content treadmill.

The Licensing Model: Financial Upside & Risks

• Potential Value of Licensing ([11:34]–[13:41])

  • Cahall estimates Disney could command $15 billion annually just from licensing streaming rights—potentially conservative.
  • Margins would mirror the “heyday” of studios in the cable years, far better than current streaming efforts.
  • Quote: “Distribution doesn’t make content more valuable. Distribution is a very, very taxing business to be in.” ([15:34], Cahall)

• Brand Destiny & Control Tradeoff ([14:28], [17:16])

  • Belloni: “It’s tough to see them squander the right to determine their own destiny.”
  • D’Amaro calls licensing “lumpy”—subject to buyer whims and market cycles.
  • Strategic loss: Moving to pure licensing could sacrifice Disney’s global brand touchpoint.

• Profit Margins: What Does Streaming Need to Justify Its Existence?

  • Cahall: "Streaming probably needs to get to about a 20% margin to justify it as a standalone business." ([16:13])
  • Current margins are “low double digit,” likely needing to hit 25% to match licensing, or 20% if factoring in synergies with parks, merch, sports.

The Disney Counterargument: Brand as Destination

• Disney’s Own Position ([17:16]–[18:00])

  • D’Amaro opposes an all-licensing pivot, arguing it would risk “inferior strategic and financial positions” for shareholders and “sacrifice all of that strategic value.”
  • Belloni notes the company has weighed but firmly rejected the idea—for now.

• Brand Strength and the Platform Problem ([20:09]–[22:00])

  • Even if Disney content stays popular on platforms like Netflix or YouTube, Disney wants to be the platform, not just a supplier.

• Stock Price and Pressure ([22:39]–[24:21])

  • The ultimate metric is the stock price—if margins stay weak, external pressure may build for a strategic pivot.
  • Cahall: “That is the very fair scoreboard around this whole thing.” ([22:39])
  • He’s “actually very bullish” on Disney—wants either strategy to succeed, but margins must justify the DTC bet.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Cahall on Distribution vs Content ([15:34]):
  • “Distribution doesn’t make content more valuable. Distribution is a very, very taxing business to be in.”
• Belloni on Disney’s DNA ([14:28]):
  • “It’s tough to see them just squander the right to determine their own destiny... the Walt Disney Company, one of the original studios, been around for more than 100 years.”
• Cahall on Scoreboard Mentality ([22:39]):
  • “That is the very fair scoreboard around this whole thing... If Josh and his team have a very successful streaming strategy, then people like me should shut up and go away.”
• Belloni on the Future ([25:16]):
  • “Yeah, they need a specific division for turkey legs and churros.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:59] — Disney earnings, new digital products discussed
• [03:05] — TikToks on Disney: impact, strategy
• [04:00] — Stephen Cahall lays out the licensing argument
• [07:51] — The challenge of streaming math versus cable bundle
• [11:34] — “Arms dealer” model: numbers, margins, and methods
• [13:41] — Would this mean higher margins? Job losses?
• [14:28] — The question of Disney’s brand and ceding control
• [17:16] — D’Amaro’s public stance against abandoning DTC
• [20:09] — Disney wants to be the platform, not just supply others
• [22:39] — Stock price as arbiter of strategy
• [24:21] — Belloni and Cahall’s outlook if margins don’t improve

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Notable Quotes

• Stephen Cahall ([06:46]):
  “If we, Disney, continue to feed the beast, the beast will be something we cannot control at some point.”

• Matthew Belloni ([10:14]):
  “Disney’s die hards are more die hard than any other media company. But churn management is about keeping the folks that jump around.”

• Stephen Cahall ([13:41]):
  “That $15 billion is, if anything, a slightly conservative number.” [regarding potential licensing fees]

• Josh D’Amaro (quoted by Belloni, [17:16]):
  “…Exiting direct to consumer for licensing exclusively would likely lead to both inferior strategic and financial positions for our company and our shareholders.”

• Stephen Cahall ([15:34]):
  “Distribution doesn’t make content more valuable. Distribution is a very, very taxing business to be in.”

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Conclusion

This episode offers a uniquely candid look at a turning point for Disney’s media strategy. Belloni and Cahall pose fundamental questions: Is streaming worth the headaches and thinner margins? Would a return to the “arms dealer” era—licensing out Disney’s rich IP—actually be more lucrative? And can Disney afford to cede distribution control after 100 years of being a primary destination? For now, Disney has rejected the alternative, but as the scoreboard (i.e., stock price) remains underwhelming, this conversation is far from over.

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Recommended for:
Anyone interested in the crossroads of media business, Disney’s strategic inflection points, and the broader streaming wars.

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Transcript

[A]

Foreign. This episode of the Town is presented by HBO Max. HBO Max Presents hacks nominated for 25 Emmy Awards, including Outstanding Comedy Series. In the aftermath of mistaken news reports that Deborah passed away, she and Ava returned to Las Vegas determined to secure Deborah's legacy as a comedian. Don't miss the series Variety is calling one of TV's best comedies ever. Hacks is now streaming on HBO Max. Adobe Firefly is the all in one creative studio with AI powered image and video editing for today's creative process. Built for creators of every kind, Firefly helps you generate, edit and experiment fast because the asks aren't getting smaller, the budgets aren't getting bigger, and the timelines oh yeah, still tight. With all the best creative AI models in one place, Firefly brings your ideas to life. Unlock a better way to make with Adobe Firefly. It is Thursday, August 6th. Disney released their latest earnings report this week and the numbers were pretty good. Surprising growth of 3% in attendance at the theme parks, especially right after Universal announced that its parks are struggling with attendance a bit. Toy Story 5 and the NBA Finals helped the entertainment division, though Moana and Mandalorian and Grogu not so much. They announced that TikToks are coming to Disney and maybe some free ad supported channels as well. Streaming revenue increased 11% thanks to price hikes and ad sales gains. The Disney stock price popped a little too, but it's been languishing over the past few years despite all that investment in streaming and the bundle successes with Disney and Hulu in this country and espn. So much so that Josh d', Amaro, the new CEO, he's been pinning his strategy to boost that stock on making Disney the, quote, digital centerpiece of the company. We've talked about this before. Demaro wants the streaming service to be a much bigger part of the Disney fan's life, which sounds interesting, but one top analyst is suggesting that demaro do the exact opposite and get out of the direct to consumer business entirely. Stephen Cahal at Wells Fargo. He argued in a note to clients that Disney should stop trying to be Netflix or YouTube and just focus on making great movies and shows and distribute them via the highest bidders. Sort of like Sony or Lionsgate or other companies without global streaming businesses. It's an intriguing idea, and to be clear, it's not something demaro says he's interested in pursuing. But Cahal argues that the profit margins on licensing businesses are much better for Disney than trying to outspend and outgrow Netflix. And ultimately, bigger margins would be a bigger Stock price boost. So today I've got Stephen Cahill on the show to discuss that plan should Disney get out of the streaming business. From the ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. All right, we are here with Stephen Cahal, an analyst at Wells Fargo and a returning champion to the Town. Welcome back, Stephen.

[B]

Thank you for having me on again.

[A]

All right, Steven, I want to talk about your idea about direct to consumer in Disney. But first, we got to hit this first TikToks coming to Disney. I laughed when I saw this because of course they are. I mean, this is what demaro wants. He wants Disney to be this digital hub for everything. They are looking at what their fans are doing on TikTok and singing songs and doing dances and why not bring some of that stuff over to Disney? Do you think this is going to be a game changer? Like a. Not a game changer, Something meaningful for Disney?

[B]

Yeah, I don't know if I would call it a game changer. And certainly I think the initial deal they had with OpenAI around Sora was more exciting because that was consumers co creating characters. And just the interactive nature of that was exciting. This is interactive in a way. It's more live. It's people taking Disney content and doing things with it. I have no doubt it's going to be highly curated to make sure that what's on that is Disney appropriate. Disney branded all those things, but they recognize that a lot of engagement goes on outside Disney and what bigger platform is there than TikTok right now? So to embrace the convergence between those two certainly can just probably drive some youthful eyeballs or time spent that they wouldn't get otherwise.

[A]

It's going to be a lot of six year olds belting out Moana songs alongside the actual character singing the song. Right.

[B]

I would. I would expect that. Yes. Yes.

[A]

The streaming business seems to be going okay for Disney. They've cut a lot of costs. They're making fewer shows than they used to. They've raised prices, they're doing the bundles they see. They're not telling us how many subscribers they have, but we think that they are growing and in subscribers. So by all accounts, according to Disney, they're on the right path for streaming. And then you come along and you drop this note a couple weeks ago saying, actually, guys, you should get out of the direct to consumer business and return to a licensing model that was making you way more money before. So I want you to give me your argument here that if you had, if I was Josh, tomorrow, tell me your argument for why Disney should cut bait on its streaming services and switch over to the licensing model that you say will be more profitable.

[B]

Yeah. So if we jump back to, you know, the days before streaming and media and Disney kind of began its initial existential reconsideration when ESPN started to lose subscribers. And, you know, if we wanted to give that a reason, it was because Netflix had emerged as a new place for people to spend time. It was outside of the linear bundle that they didn't have before. And by 2019, Disney had embraced, you know, the, the streaming era fully and announced that they were going to direct consumer. They held an Investor Day in April 2019, and they launched and they launched Disney. And I think since 2019, some things that have changed that are different than those original assumptions as to why to get into streaming. The first was that it seemed like at that time that Netflix was going to be a force that almost no one could stop. And so this was back when Disney had an output deal with Netflix. Marvel shows like Jessica Jones and Luke Cage and Daredevil wore Netflix originals. They almost weren't who sort of get lost as to whether or not they were Disney at all.

[A]

You could watch Marvel movies on Disney. Sorry, on Netflix.

[B]

That's right. Yeah. So I think at that time there was a recognition that if we, Disney, continue to feed the beast, the beast will be something that we cannot control at some point and will maybe even be subjected to the Air Force as maybe the single buyer. And I think now, you know, looking back some years later, that's not the case. You know, there's more buyers. Apple entered this market. Amazon has remained in this market. We don't need to talk about Paramount, Skydance and Warner Brothers merging, but we've assumed that's going to happen, then that's, you know, another company that's going to be in the streaming market as a buyer of content, because you always want to have competitors if you're selling content. Right. So there's going to be. And you're in Hollywood, you know this. So there's going to be more buyers longer term than I think we thought in 2019. The second thing is the margin profile of everyone's streaming business other than Netflix has been a lot harder to get to.

[A]

Yeah. So that's an analyst way of saying that the cable bundle dollars have not turned into streaming service dollars. It's a lot less than they made before.

[B]

Actually, at the top, they have. The revenue dollars in streaming are impressive. Know Disney's revenue dollars in streaming exceed 20 billion, they'll be close to 25 billion next year. Netflix is over 50 billion, but both of those you would call scaled businesses. It's just really expensive to run a streaming service because you have to constantly satisfy your subscribers because it isn't bundled with a bunch of other stuff. You have a lot of technology costs, you have a lot of marketing. And for Disney specifically, because the content is fed largely by the studio, which is more tent pole focused. If you have a couple of pieces of content that don't work, like say the Mandalorian and Grogu and Moana, then all of a sudden your streaming service doesn't have the new freshest content coming. So this volume game, which is really churn management, this volume game is harder to play than I think any of us expected. Certainly in 2019 and during the COVID bubble in 2020. So content, worse market to manage streaming.

[A]

Right. And you argue in your note that Disney is not equipped to battle Netflix and YouTube on the volume front.

[B]

Yeah. And that is not necessarily a dig at the way Disney manages content. That's very much like stating what Disney is and is not. And it's a very, very high quality, relatively low volume production. And first to take YouTube. No one can compete with YouTube on content because it's user generated. And so it's like infinite by definition. There is always something new on YouTube and Netflix has a very different strategy and it has production and licensing all over the world in order to feed that mix of volume and quality. Not that they're looking for stuff that isn't quality. Right. But you just look at the range of content that they produce and Disney is not set up to do that. And so the question is, can you keep x 100 million subscribers happy month in, month out with a relatively low volume? That means you need a high hit rate. And that is probably a lot to ask of any studio, well, or beloved

[A]

ip, which is what Disney has. And you see the numbers on some of their older library titles are still performing just as much as as the Netflix originals. Particularly in film, where you could see a title like Moana or Encanto or Turning Red pop up on the top 10 list for years and years after they are first released.

[B]

No doubt. And I think where then you get to on this sort of treadmill is most likely Disney has a base of subscribers who are almost, you know, infinitely price inelastic. They'll pay whatever. They love the library, they love the content, or maybe they have kids and they can just churn through it and churn through it and churn through it. But then they also have a layer of subscribers like me who jump around from service to service. I don't have children. I'm looking for whether or not there's a new season of Alien Earth or the Bear or Shogun. And the library is not that valuable to me. No one's is. Maybe Christopher Nolan's, maybe 824s, you know, but so every streaming service has this higher churn cohort. And then like the diehards, Disney's die hards are more die hard than any other media company. But churn management is about keeping the folks that, you know, you know, jump around a little bit.

[A]

Right. And so your argument is that Disney would be better off taking all of its branded IP and, and its content and its studios and just turning into a content behemoth, not a distribution behemoth. And you do the math and you look at, you know, what Sony is getting for its film output on Netflix. They're getting about a billion dollars a year. You estimate, for their first PayOne window on Netflix. You're looking at Disney's film slate. They get about three times the box office. You're looking at Pay two window and all these other windows that are out there. And you say Disney could get about $15 billion a year for streaming rights to its catalog alone.

[B]

Yeah. And the way I think about it is we're in a world where the platforms are very competitive. The ones that we just mentioned are Netflix, Paramount, Skydance, maybe pro forma for Warner Brothers, Apple and Amazon as a basic set. And then you have YouTube as an extra on there. They don't really pay for external content. We'll see if that ever changes. But even within those four, how valuable is the Marvel library? How valuable is the Star wars library? How valuable is the Disney library? And how valuable is something like pay one from a studio like this? And when you start to look at it under that context and when you see values of, you know, things like Mad Men, which was resold to HBO recently, there has been a very significant growth in the value of this high value content. So, you know, I feel like that $15 billion is, if anything, a slightly conservative number. Now, one thing I would say, Disney is showing progress on streaming and I think Josh d' Amaro certainly has earned the right to continue to move down the path that he's on and see where it gets to. But there is an alternative here, and I don't want to hide behind my conviction that that alternative could be pretty compelling. Depending on where we are.

[A]

And you believe the margins would be much higher, more akin to the heyday of these studios in the cable bundle times.

[B]

I mean, certainly the margin profile, you know, just intuitively you can think about running a streaming service is very intensive on technology, it's very intensive on marketing, and it's pretty intensive on personnel and employees.

[A]

God, I hate to think how many people would be fired if they implemented your plan because a lot of people work at these streaming services.

[B]

That is certainly true. There's no doubt about that. To the extent which we're talking about sort of creative talent, it's indifferent to that. Right. And if anything, it could support the boosting of more spending on the creative side, you know, in order to offset that.

[A]

Yeah. The only thing the challenge on that, and I like your argument, but I've talked to so many producers in town about the peril of not owning your own destiny. And the Walt Disney Company, one of the original Hollywood studios, been around for more than 100 years. It's tough to see them just squander the the right to determine their own destiny. Because in tomorrow he called the licensing business lumpy. And I think I know what he means by that in that you're a seller, you've got to be at the whim of the platforms and right now there's a robust market. But maybe at some point these whittle down and there's two or three buyers and Netflix doesn't want to buy your content because they would rather own what they put in front of their customers and they have the market power to do that. I think the high end Disney content will always be valuable and in demand. But maybe some of the lower end stuff that Disney does get value on, maybe there's a buyer for that stuff.

[B]

Yeah. So first I'd say like the Destiny is the content and if the content is good, the Destiny will be good for any content producer. Me as a research analyst, you as a content creator or Disney. And so you could argue that distribution doesn't make content more valuable. Distribution is a very, very taxing business to be in. The second one is that if a lot of content gets devalued over time, I'm not sure that it's going to matter that it's on Disney or somewhere else.

[C]

Maybe not.

[B]

If X years from now, whether it's AI or something else has completely changed the value of content, then this is still a tough business to be in. Finally, just a take on their earnings would be, I think that you probably need to see streaming getting to about a 20% margin to justify it as a standalone business.

[A]

And where are we today?

[B]

This year there'll be low double digit and the question is how does that expand over the next couple of years. And our note math would say you probably need to get to about a 25% margin to sort of be equivalent to be the licensing opportunity. Now I think you could make this argument that being in the streaming business gives you this customer relationship. It maybe gives you something in the parks. It's more interactive, it helps you sell merchandise, it helps you monetize sports. So that 25% is too high and something closer to 20 kind of brings in that network company wide effect.

[A]

Yeah. And tomorrow calls it a global touch point for consumers. And that's what he wants Disney to be. And he addressed this, he talked about this. You asked him a question on the earnings today and he said that the shift to a purely licensing model could sacrifice all of that strategic value. He's talking about the global brand and touchpoint of Disney. Content licensing by nature is a lumpy business. It's subject to supply and demand dynamics in the marketplace at a given time. It's not to say that there isn't a role for content licensing. We do license some content to third parties today. But exiting direct to consumer for licensing exclusively would likely lead to both inferior strategic and financial positions for our company and and our shareholders.

[B]

So there. So there.

[A]

Take that.

[B]

So there.

[A]

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[B]

It's definitive in terms of how they see this choice right now, right there. There is no doubt about that.

[A]

I think they want to be a player. They want to take on Netflix. The idea of someday, you know, they're not being buyers for their content. And maybe they. The Disney channel on YouTube is the biggest channel on YouTube. They don't want that.

[B]

Right.

[A]

They don't want to be a great business for YouTube. And they get paid. They want to be YouTube.

[B]

They do. And what I would say as an analyst is in three years from now, if that margin is 13%, 14%, then you have to ask, is it worth it? Is it worth it? And can you really point out the way it's driving the other parts of the businesses? Because I would say that Disney's parks and cruises are great business irrespective of what has happened to the distribution model over the last decade.

[A]

Yeah. You think these other businesses can be just as good if there is no Disney plus or Hulu, that if we're all watching the latest Marvel movie on Netflix or on YouTube, that we'll still buy products and go on cruises and all the other things.

[B]

And we can certainly pick out pieces of content that have become more remarkable by being on larger reach platforms as well. I mean, suits, you know, the others examples of, of things that have been on Netflix.

[A]

Oh, wait, but you just said distribution doesn't matter. I'd argue in that case, distribution does matter. The second you put an old show on Netflix, it shoots to the roof.

[B]

Right. And. And so it's all about getting that escape velocity of a distribution platform. Right. It's being something that people go to when they don't know what they want to watch, as opposed to probably HBO and Disney, I think it's fair to say we usually go to because we know what we want to watch and we have a high expectation for it. And so changing people's minds that there's so much content here that you don't even have to know what you're looking for. And we'll have something for you. That's the part that's, that's hard to do and that probably only Netflix and, and YouTube has done. So I think we, we wait and we watch and see kind of how this progresses.

[A]

Yeah, I just, I don't see Disney abdicating its role as brand first. And they see brand first as being a destination. Used to be television, used to be the Disney Channel and all of their outlets. Now it's streaming and it's direct to consumer. And I just, I don't think that tomorrow is ever going to, you know, unless the stock is dragged down. Because you argue that over the past few years this lack of margin has contributed to the stock price being so stagnant.

[B]

That is the motivating factor and frankly, that is the very fair scoreboard around this whole thing.

[A]

You know, if, if, and ultimately that's Josh's job is to raise the stock

[B]

price that is 100%. Right. And if Josh and his team have a very successful streaming strategy, then people like me should shut up and go away and talk about how well it's worked. And I am happy to do that.

[A]

Yeah. You're only bringing this up because they don't, because those margins are not as good as they were in the cable era. And they need a narrative. Like all these media companies. They need some narrative. And you look at what Sony has been doing. We don't know the particulars of Sony because they don't break it out as well, but we know that they're doing well with their arms dealer strategy. And maybe that's, maybe Disney could be the biggest arms dealer of them all.

[B]

And certainly, I think all you really ask as a shareholder is have you thought about this and have you weighed the pros and cons? And you know, stock price kind of tells you what they're thinking about and what they're doing. And you know, we know from the earnings call today, it's at least something they've considered and turned down for now, pretty, pretty authoritatively.

[A]

Yes, we know that they considered it and then they waded up and threw it in the trash.

[B]

But that then creates their own bar to clear. Right. Because they've acknowledged that there is, you know, an alternative. They've acknowledged that they believe this is the better strategy. And I think quite confidently they're going to go attempt to execute on that. And just to be clear, I'm actually very bullish on Disney. And so if they get there that way, I'm as happy as they get there. In an alternative way.

[A]

But if in a couple years, those margins in streaming are not in the 20 range, then that's when people like you start stomping their feet and say, you got to do something here. You got to consider it.

[B]

Yeah. It's when I get even more annoying than I've been so far on initially like this. And importantly, Disney does have a history with some activist shareholders.

[A]

Sure. They are not a closely held company

[B]

that is not a controlled company, and they're a much more complicated company than they've ever been. Right. They were an animation studio. Then they were animation and parks. Then they were studio and parks and ABC and ESPN with Capital Cities now you've added streaming and crews onto that. So it is a complex company, which makes it even more right to people saying, hey, you're doing it this way, but why not adjust in this direction and that direction? So the stock price is the thing that determines how much external pressure they.

[A]

Yeah, they need a specific division for turkey legs and churros.

[B]

Who's to say they don't have one

[A]

all over the world? That's basically theme parks now, but they need to sell them at home. They need little kiosks when you walk down the street, wherever they go, wherever any. Any Disney fan should be able to get a churro and a turkey leg

[B]

every day, I think they should just have a princesses division because they have such high market share and the margins in princesses must be so, so high.

[A]

I know. I fear for my friends who have young daughters. It's just a racket.

[B]

Whatever.

[A]

All right, thank you very much, Stephen. I appreciate you coming on the show.

[B]

Thank you, Matt.

[A]

Today's call sheet is brought to you by FX's welcome to Wrexham. With season four and five now nominated for four Emmys and including Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program. All right, Craig, we did not do a prediction for Spider man last weekend because I was on vacation, and I'm actually kind of glad we didn't because.

[C]

No, you texted privately. You said, spider man's gonna make $360 million domestic.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Yes, I said exactly that number. No, I would not have guessed that Spider man would get to that number. I would have taken the over on what the tracking was, which was like 225, 240, but, man, that just overperformed. But I want to, because there's pretty weak performers coming up this weekend. Super Troopers 3 and 1 Night Only. They're not. They're not expected to do much business. So let's get into weekend two of Spider man, because I think Brand New Day could buck the trend of these big blockbusters in their second weekends. The numbers during this week have been record numbers, like a $42 million Tuesday night, like insane numbers. Domestically, it's already the biggest movie of the year. So I actually think, you know, normally with a. With an opening this big, you would expect to see like a high 60s, 70% decline. In weekend two, I think we're going to see high 50s, 60% decline. And so what would that be? 60. 60% of 360 is what, about 144 million? 144 million. So let's set this line for weekend two at 144 million. I'll take the over on that.

[C]

What is the situation with the IMAX screens between the Odyssey and Spider Man? Now, Spider man gets those.

[A]

Good point. They don't get all of them. They get some of them. I don't believe we have a number on exactly how many.

[C]

Because they haven't had any yet. Correct.

[A]

They haven't had any. They've had the Infinity Vision screens, the non IMAX PLFs. So the deal with Odyssey was that they got three weeks of exclusivity for IMAX and that is now over. So given the state of the box office, IMAX is giving Spider man some of those and I think it's going to make a difference. So that probably will help, if that matters. On whether you take the over or

[C]

under, it's fascinating because the Odyssey only dropped like 30% second weekend, correct?

[A]

Yeah, it did, yeah. But that was driven again by the IMAX screen people holding out to go

[C]

see it in imax. So you have to imagine that.

[A]

And it didn't get to 360 million. When you get that high, you're so front loaded usually.

[C]

Yeah, that was going to be what I said, that, like, these are the Marvel fans. Everyone wanted to see a weekend one. They didn't care about the IMAX screens. They wanted to see it weekend 1. Are we more likely to see a Precipitous Drop Weekend 2 with this movie

[B]

compared to the Odyssey?

[A]

Exactly. That is the question. So, 144 over, under.

[C]

What is the average drop for a blockbuster? You said, like, 70% is typical.

[A]

It can be up to 70 when it gets this high. Now, a bomb like Supergirl will drop 70% because nobody likes it. But if it's a decent blockbuster and people like it, the drop can be like between 55 and 65. That's like respectable. 50 is great.

[C]

This says that no way home in 2021. Had a sick. Had a drop of 67%.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

And you're taking.

[A]

I think it's going to be less than that.

[C]

Yeah, I think you're right. It's hard not to take the over on.

[A]

You're stalling, Craig.

[C]

The most popular movie.

[A]

I need an answer in the country.

[B]

Sure.

[C]

I'll take the over with you.

[A]

You're taking the over?

[B]

Sure.

[A]

That's the smart move.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

The over on 144 for weekend two.

[C]

Sure.

[A]

This movie is going to be the biggest movie of the year. I'm so pissed Lucas is going to run away with this draft, but whatever.

[C]

And now you're going to have to shill for Avengers doomsday, which is. You don't want to be there. You don't want to be there.

[A]

Russo's come on the town. You have a friendly venue. I'm going to talk about how great your mov. All right. Today's call sheet was brought to you by FX's welcome to Wrexham. The fourth and fifth seasons of the acclaimed series feature Emmy nominated technical achievements including cinematography, picture editing and sound mixing. All episodes of welcome to Wrexham are now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers for your Emmy consideration. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest Stephen Cahall, producer Craig Horlebeck, artist Jesse Lopez and Stefano Sanchez. And I want to thank you. We will see you next week. This episode is brought to you by Peacock presenting All Her Fault. Nominated for seven Emmy awards including outstanding limited series and nominations for both Sarah Snook and Dakota Fanning. NPR praises the series exceptional performances and the wrap calls the series an adrenaline filled psychological thriller full of jaw dropping twists and turns. All Her Fault is streaming now only on Peacock. This episode is brought to you by FX's the Bear. With season four now nominated for eight Emmys including outstanding comedy series. The New York Times declares the series from comedy director Emmy nominee Christopher Storer a masterpiece. The fourth season of the acclaimed series features Emmy nominated performances from Iowa Debery, Rob Reiner and Jamie Lee Curtis. All episodes of FX's the Bear are now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers. For your Emmy consideration.