Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The End-of-Year Exec Survey: Next Disney CEO, Where to Sell Your Movie, and Worst Media Exec
Host: Matthew Belloni
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)
Date: December 29, 2025

Overview

In this end-of-year special, Matthew Belloni is joined by Lucas Shaw of Bloomberg to break down the results and key insights from Bloomberg’s annual Hollywood executive survey, which gauges the views of 700 industry insiders on the business’s biggest questions. Topics include predictions for studio ownership, Disney’s CEO succession, the best (and worst) places to sell a movie, and who today’s executives believe are the most—and least—respected figures in media leadership. The duo also reviews the surprisingly robust Christmas box office and analyzes the evolving star power of actors like Timothée Chalamet and Sydney Sweeney.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Christmas Box Office: A Return to Form

Timestamp: [03:17 – 08:36]

• The holiday box office reached pre-pandemic levels, with seven movies grossing over $10M—a sign of diverse audience interest.
• Standout titles included Avatar 3, Zootopia 2, Marty Supreme, The Housemaid, Anaconda David, and Spongebob.
• Surprise Hit: The Housemaid ($50M in two weekends). This marked Sydney Sweeney’s comeback after Christie Bombed.
• Timothée Chalamet’s Status: Belloni and Shaw debate whether the opening of Marty Supreme ($24-25M, $70M budget) solidifies Chalamet as a bankable star.
  • Quote:

    “Timmy’s a star. He can open this movie. The blimp worked. The marketing campaign was brilliant.” — Matthew Belloni [05:32]

  • Despite enthusiasm, profitability remains uncertain due to the heavy budget and American-centric appeal.
• Notable comparison to Sinners and One Battle After Another in terms of box office performance and awards prospects:
  • Sinners — a $90M movie, crossed $300M, Best Picture contender.
  • Marty Supreme could become A24’s biggest movie domestically if it reaches $100M.

2. Executive Survey: Who Will Own Warner Bros. Discovery?

Timestamp: [08:36 – 12:35]

• Survey Result:
  • 52% said Netflix will own Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
  • 38% named Paramount, 10% “someone else”.
• Skepticism persists despite Netflix’s signed deal, highlighting industry uncertainty and how “conventional wisdom” is often media-driven.
  • Quote:

    “Nobody knows anything... They parrot that back to each other.” — Matthew Belloni [09:59]

• Main concern with the Ellison/Paramount bid: overhaul of CNN, not job cuts. Media coverage has heightened this.
  • Secondary concern: Ellison's “Middle Eastern money.”
• Both Netflix and Paramount would likely mean layoffs (consolidation).

3. The Disney CEO Succession: Who Replaces Bob Iger?

Timestamp: [12:35 – 15:29]

• Survey Result: The frontrunner is now Josh D’Amaro, Disney Parks chief, overtaking Dana Walden (TV/streaming).
• Discussion around possible co-CEO structures was revealed but seen as unlikely.
  • Quote:

    “The disembodied head of Walt Disney is ultimately deciding who… The one they keep in the vault down in the basement.” — Matthew Belloni, joking [14:06]

• Likely outcome: D’Amaro as CEO, Walden in a high-ranking content role.
• Expect a decision and announcement in the first quarter of 2026.

4. Where Would Execs Sell Their Movie?

Timestamp: [16:36 – 22:38]

• Top choices (out of 8 studios):
  1. Universal (Donna Langley's stewardship praised for franchise management).
  2. Warner Brothers (climbing due to hits from original IP).
  3. Apple (despite limited theatrical output, F1 is a hit and draws "starry-eyed" comparisons).
• Surprise: Amazon placed dead last; despite theatrical releases and a professional exec team, it lacks a clear breakout hit.
  • Quote:

    “They need the movies to work... they have nothing to point to right now.” — Lucas Shaw [21:57]

• Netflix is ranked higher than Paramount, Sony, and Disney—primarily due to sheer production volume, but selling to Netflix without a theatrical window remains unpopular among filmmakers.
  • Quote:

    “They don't want to have to sell their movie to Netflix. Ted can go on all day and night about how filmmakers love working there… Ted knows that filmmakers want theaters.” — Matthew Belloni [20:30]

• Disney considered a tough place to sell a new movie unless it’s under Searchlight or 20th Century.

5. Media’s Least Respected CEO: “Worst in Show”

Timestamp: [22:38 – 25:02]

• David Zaslav (Warner Bros. Discovery) again “wins” as the survey’s worst CEO—in a landslide.
  • Quote:

    “David Zaslav just pulled off the deal of all deals… Like, why the disrespect?” — Matthew Belloni [22:59]

• Runner-up: David Ellison (Paramount/Skydance).
• Netflix leaders placed last (i.e., least likely to be viewed as “worst”).
• Zaslav’s reputation suffers from negative PR, company mismanagement, and his large salary. Only way out is a new industry villain or a major philanthropic gesture.
  • Quote:

    “He became the face of the problems in Hollywood over the last couple of years, rightly or wrongly… Someone else has to step in it in a big way.” — Lucas Shaw [24:03]

6. Other Survey Insights & Streaming Trends

Timestamp: [25:02 – 26:38]

• Streaming growth highlights:
  • Timothée Chalamet got over half the votes as the “next big movie star.”
  • HBO Max nearly tied Netflix as the preferred place for scripted TV deals, despite recent struggles—credibility of the HBO brand stays strong.
  • Quote:

    “It’s the halo of HBO… they still do good stuff… you're going to get a bespoke treatment.” — Matthew Belloni [26:06]

7. Avatar 3 and Franchise Future

Timestamp: [26:55 – 30:36]

• Avatar 3 (Fire and Ash) performed well, though slightly below its predecessor.
• Belloni predicts Avatar 4 will be made (with Cameron directing), possibly after a longer gap.
• Franchise longevity discussed, with an “Earth scenario” teased for future installments.
  • Quote:

    “There’s a scenario where they go to Earth or Earth people come there... could be fascinating.” — Matthew Belloni [30:05]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “People just mirror what we are saying… nobody knows anything.” — Matthew Belloni [09:59]
• “I love a good Disney conspiracy theory.” — Lucas Shaw [14:03]
• “Don’t try to make [Sydney Sweeney] do the things people don’t want to see her in.” — Lucas Shaw [04:52]
• “If Project Hail Mary turns into the F1 of next summer, [Amazon] will go up on this list.” — Matthew Belloni [22:07]
• “[David Zaslav] could be a hero if he did that. Something about his history tells me he will not do that.” — Matthew Belloni (on donating part of Zaslav’s payout to the industry fund) [24:55]

Conclusion

Matthew Belloni and Lucas Shaw offer a candid, data-driven look into what Hollywood’s leadership is thinking entering 2026—covering the high-stakes studio wars, CEO succession drama, and the evolving power dynamics of streaming, prestige, and box office performance. The tone is analytical but irreverent, poking fun at the industry’s groupthink and gossip but underlining real strategic trends shaping the business. The conversation provides invaluable context for anyone trying to understand the true mood and direction of Hollywood’s executive class as the industry heads into a new year of uncertainty and opportunity.