The Fall Box Office Crisis: A Phase, a Fluke, or the Future?

Summary

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The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Fall Box Office Crisis: A Phase, a Fluke, or the Future?

Date: November 17, 2025
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horbeck (Producer)

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Main Theme & Purpose

Matthew Belloni is joined by Lucas Shaw to unpack the troubling state of the fall box office, particularly the collapse of independent, mid-budget, and awards-hopeful movies. The discussion dissects the underlying problems behind the lack of theatrical hits, evaluates the often-futile role of celebrity press tours, and reflects on whether this downturn is temporary, a scheduling fluke, or a lasting trend likely to reshape the future of Hollywood releases.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fall Box Office Trends & Crisis

• Dramatic Drop in Box Office:

  • Fall 2025 sees box office grosses down ~40% from pre-COVID levels.
  • No major studio tentpoles during September and October.
  • “Disney’s Tron flopped… Universal played it kind of small, and Warner Brothers doesn’t even have any movies for the rest of the year.” (Belloni, 01:28)
  • Notably, among 25 major comedy and drama releases, zero crossed the $50 million mark considered the threshold of a “hit” (05:55).

• Wide Release, Wide Failure:

  • Star-driven indies and mid-budget movies, e.g.:
    • The Smashing Machine (The Rock)
    • Christie (Sydney Sweeney)
    • Die My Love (Jennifer Lawrence & Robert Pattinson)
    • Begonia (Emma Stone)
    • Bruce Springsteen movie
  • All were “rejected” by audiences despite wide releases (2,000+ screens).
  • “After the Hunt” (Julia Roberts) cost $70M, grossed just $3M domestic (02:55).

2. What’s to Blame for the Slump?

A. Quality and Commercial Appeal of Movies

• Lucas Shaw: “Most of the movies haven’t been commercial or very good.” (09:15)

• Belloni challenges this, noting Hollywood’s historical ability to market and profit from mediocre fare.

• Examples:

  • The Bruce Springsteen movie vs. previous music biopics: “That movie had the music, this movie didn’t …that movie was good and this movie wasn’t.” (09:38–10:08)
  • Yorgos Lanthimos (Begonia)—struggling, compared to his previous modestly commercial hits.

B. The ‘Windowing’ Problem & Shifted Audience Behavior

• Shortened theatrical windows (“watch at home soon” messaging) have led audiences to delay seeing non-event films in theaters.
• Belloni: “If it's not an event, good luck to you. Because everybody has been trained to wait.” (11:18)
• Shaw agrees, but sees it as a secondary factor: movies themselves aren't compelling enough to force ‘urgent viewing’.

C. Lack of Kids’ Movies and Scheduling Issues

• No significant kids’ movies released—missed opportunity, termed “malpractice” given demand (12:10–12:24).
• Release clustering over Veterans Day—hopes that the absence of a major competing tentpole would give a boost, but this didn’t materialize (13:08–13:57).

D. Going Wide vs. Platforming

• Distributors gamble on wide releases to maximize holiday traffic and press tour attention, but niche, challenging subjects (e.g., Christie, Die My Love, After the Hunt) do not benefit from this model (12:36–13:13).

3. Role and Effectiveness of Press Tours

• Press Tours Overexposed, Under-Deliver:

  • Skepticism about whether omnipresent stars actually drive moviegoing.
  • Belloni: “We are essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves and their personal brands and they are not necessarily making that connection to the movie.” (23:06)
  • Example: Sydney Sweeney’s exhaustive press blitz for Christie failed to translate to ticket sales:
    • “It almost works against your movie because people get their fill of you in their feeds and they're not translating that to going to the movies.” (19:45)

• Press Tour Strategies: Effective or Not?

  • Chalamet’s campaign for “Marty Supreme” described as a rare, focused, and movie-centric effort that could make a difference (20:33–21:13).
  • Most press tours now feed the star’s celebrity more than the movie: “We're essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves…” (23:06)
  • Craig: “If Sydney Sweeney's all over your phone... the second now his face is on your tv... you'll click it.” (24:38)
  • Net effect: might help later on streaming, but does little to boost theatrical attendance.

4. The Shrinking Value of Movie Stars

• Shaw: “Movie stars aren't as big or don’t matter as much as they used to... I can spend time with a lot of these actors just like watching clips.” (26:07)
• Belloni: “We’re now a clip culture... it’s gotta be extra special to want to see two hours of something sad.” (26:34)

5. Financial Strategies and Studio Behavior

• Retailored Release Schedules:
  • Studios, facing poor box office prospects, shift more films to streaming and avoid theatrical risk (15:01–15:46).
  • Warner Bros. releases nothing Q4—attempting to boost financials, “because they are trying to increase their financials in order to sell the company.” (25:49)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We've just decided that there’s like a certain type of movie that should break out. And I don't know that it should... things are not fine at the box office.”
  — Lucas Shaw (07:22)

• “It's malpractice. Like, we are dying for something… there's nothing to take the kids to.”
  — Matthew Belloni on absence of kids’ movies (12:12)

• “All these movies… go wide with these very niche movies. I have no idea [why].”
  — Lucas Shaw on poor release strategies (13:08)

• “We're essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves... and they are not necessarily making that connection to the movie.”
  — Matthew Belloni (23:06)

• “To me, it's just like, no one—there’s no reason for anybody to go to the theater to see an adult drama anymore. It’s just the way it is now.”
  — Craig (23:54)

• “I'm at like a 7 or 8 [panic scale]. Lucas thinks that better movies would equal better box office... Specific to these movies, my panic scale is like a five, if that. If I'm thinking …about the movie business, my panic scale is higher.”
  — Panic assessment (27:06–27:13)

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Important Timestamps

• Box office crisis summary & recent flops (01:28–02:55)
• Defining the issue: zero $50M+ releases (05:55)
• Debate: Is bad product or windowing to blame? (09:13–11:18)
• Kids’ movie gap and scheduling missteps (12:10–12:36)
• Why go wide with niche films? (13:08–13:57)
• Streaming’s impact and studio strategies (15:01–15:46, 25:21–25:49)
• Effectiveness and point of celebrity press tours (19:45–21:13, 23:06)
• Press tour’s role in streaming success (24:33–24:51)
• The shrinking draw of movie stars (26:07–26:34)
• Panic scale for adult dramas (27:06)
• Award season party talk & J. Kelly buzz (29:12–31:44)
• Billy Crudup’s Oscar chances for “J. Kelly” (32:18–32:41)

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Wrap-Up & Takeaways

• Structural Problems Persist: There is no easy fix for the theatrical struggles of small-to-mid-budget movies. Even with heavy press, if the movie isn’t an event or doesn’t have wide commercial appeal, audiences increasingly prefer to wait for streaming.

• Studio Shift Likely to Accelerate: Weak returns will reinforce studio tendencies to push more content directly to streaming and skip risky wide releases for smaller films.

• Press Tours: For Stars, Not for Tickets: Ubiquitous star promotion is fueling celebrity branding, not ticket sales—audiences are content with social media glances, rarely translating online popularity into box office gold.

• Hope Rests on Event Releases: Without exceptional “must-see” movies—either mega-tentpoles or unique, buzzy exceptions—the shaken box office is likely to remain weak across the autumn months.

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Engaging Moments

• Belloni’s exasperation at studios skipping kids’ films (12:12): “It's malpractice… nothing to take the kids to.”
• Meta-commentary on press tours (20:33–21:13): “Chalamet seems to be going full court press for Marty supreme and he's very good at this, so maybe it will translate…”
• Prediction of Billy Crudup Oscar nomination despite minimal screen time (32:18): “He is going to get a nomination despite only being in a couple scenes.”

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Conclusion

A sobering but incisive episode, offering a candid, inside-Hollywood autopsy of why the fall box office is broken—and why little is likely to change unless the underlying economics, creative risk-taking, and consumer habits shift. The future for smaller movies in theaters looks grim, and both stars and studios may have to rethink their approach if theatrical exhibition is to recover even a fraction of its former glory.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Our order keeps tabs on the supernatural, where otherworldly secrets emerge from the shadows.

[A]

We watched and we're always there.

[B]

Prices the Secret Order all new Sundays.

[A]

Stream now on AMC. It is Monday, November 17th. Stop me if you've heard this before. It's been a pretty brutal couple months at the box office. September and October grosses were down significantly from last year and about 40% from pre Covid times, mostly because there weren't any big studio tent poles. Disney's Tron flopped, Universal played it kind of small, and Warner Brothers doesn't even have any movies for the rest of the year. After one battle after another in early October. Kind of amazing, but today we're talking about these smaller movies, the independents, specialty movies, awards contenders, mid budget stuff. But the news is arguably bleaker. New York Times noted last week that there have been zero hits, meaning $50 million or more in ticket sales at the North American box office of the 25 major comedy and drama releases in the past three months and this month, one after another, Star driven indies and mid budget movies like the Smashing Machine with the Rock, Christie with Sydney Sweeney, Die My Love with Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson, Begonia with Emma Stone, the Bruce Springsteen movie. All of them kind of flopped. Those movies opened wide, many of them meaning on more than 2,000 screens, which makes the audience rejection hurt even more after the Hunt with Julia Roberts cost more than $70 million to produce. Gross just 3 million domestic for Amazon. Kind of unbelievable. We've talked many times on the show about how the struggles of smaller movies in theaters post Covid are impacting the overall box office and particularly the theater business. Shortening windows that have told audiences to wait and watch most titles at home. Yet the distributors are still trying to make these movies work in theaters and stars are still embarking on elaborate press tours to promote them. So today is the crisis in smaller budget moviegoing. What are the actual problems here? And maybe, just maybe, how to fix them. From the ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back. Lucas. Missed you at the Governor's Awards last night. You missed Tom Cruise pretending that he's a normal person and accepting his honorary Oscar.

[C]

I have never been. I don't think I've ever been invited. I don't think I'm itching to go. But if you tell me I need to be there, I.

[A]

It's fun because you get a sense of who is going for it in the Oscar campaigns. Like who's showing up, who's shaking hands, who wants to win an Oscar badly. And they were all there. Like, even people who are complete fringe characters in this awards season, like Jennifer Lopez was there for the Kiss of the Spider Woman that is never getting nominated. She was there. Lots of people were there. It's a good networking event.

[C]

Yeah. I got a little taste of that at the Academy Museum gala, which is a month before. And it's similar, although you don't have as many. There was definitely no Jennifer Lopez at that one.

[A]

It was just a big weekend for campaigning. We had our Puck event. Sadly, the Marty supreme blimp was grounded due to the rain. So the Marty supreme blimp was not able to float above the Chalamet Sandler basketball stunt that they did on Saturday. Did you go to that?

[C]

I did not all the roundtables that the people do.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

It's a big weekend for all that. I get it. And I saw Marty Supreme Friday. That was my indulging with the Oscars.

[A]

Did you like it as much as Craig did?

[C]

I really liked it. Yeah. I don't know. Craig and I haven't talked about it, so I don't know if I like it as much as Craig.

[A]

Craig liked it more than I did. I liked it, but Craig really liked it.

[C]

I thought it was. I thought it Was, people do not need my review of Marty Supreme.

[A]

No, they do not. No one cares what we think. We do care, however, that Chalamet posted an 18 minute video of his marketing meeting with the A24 staff.

[B]

But that was a stunt.

[A]

I mean, it was unbelievable.

[B]

It was really, really funny.

[A]

It was really funny. The whole Schwab thing where he's like talking about all of his great ideas and opening up the folders on his computer, like, great idea number one, Great idea number two.

[B]

Yeah, he's like, paint the Eiffel Tower orange.

[C]

He is really good at these campaigns. And I'm wondering at a certain point if it's gonna feel like too much. But he. There's something about them that is very endearing.

[A]

Well, that's the weird thing is like, they want us to think that this is all kind of spontaneous and not a calculated awards campaign. And then they literally posted the meeting where they're strategizing about the awards campaign.

[C]

No, it obviously is, but I don't think the average person knows that.

[A]

Probably not, but it's a good segue into our topic today on press tours and what is not working and why we just have a death march of independent and mid budget movies at the box office. Our friend Brooks Barnes of the Times had a story last week which has sort of put together what we've been talking about all fall, which is that out of 25 movies that were either comedies, dramas, mid and lower budget movies this fall, zero have passed the $50 million in ticket sales marker, which, you know, he says is the marker of a hit in the North American box office. That's, you know, you can parse that as you want, but it shows that we are in a pretty bad place for movies right now.

[C]

Although at least a couple of them probably will.

[A]

You think so? Yeah, like regretting you is probably regretting.

[C]

You is going to hit 50 million. That means you're excluding Predator and Black Phone 2, both of which are.

[A]

Yeah, that's. Those are IP.

[C]

Well, Black Phone 2 is only IP because the first one works.

[A]

Sure. But that's a sequel.

[C]

And so we're not also not including one battle after another, which did hit 50 million.

[A]

Yeah, but that movie cost $140 million.

[C]

Right, I got it. So it's okay.

[A]

So, yeah, he's very clear. He excludes action films with comedy elements.

[C]

Very specific rubric.

[A]

Okay. Yes. But are you prepared to make the argument that everything's fine at the box office?

[C]

No, we've just decided that there's like a certain type of movie that should break out. And I don't know that it should, but no, things are not fine at the box office. It's been a terrible fall. Even one battle after another. Like the numbers are good until you know how much it costs. Or like Predator had a good opening weekend and then tailed off. We certainly haven't had a big fall breakout in the way that we are used to having at least one or two.

[A]

And that gets to the question of is this the new normal? Are we headed for a time where there will be summer box office events and there will be holiday box office events like Wicked Zootopia and then there will be this fallow time from September, October through mid November, where it's just no man's land?

[C]

No, that's not.

[A]

No. You don't think so if we want.

[C]

To talk about sort of what is happening in the movie business and this being the new. What is the new normal, I'm happy to go there. But in terms of just like the fall being a dead zone. No, I just think that is like the quirk of the schedule this year or things that didn't work.

[A]

Usually there is a Joker or a Black Panther 2 or something that comes out.

[C]

We've had horror movies that are like really massive. Like it a few years ago, sure.

[A]

But that was pre pandemic. But yes, I don't want to focus on the box office being bad. I want to focus on potential solutions. And to get there we sort of have to identify what the problems are like. Is this just a windowing problem that for these movies that are not automatic events, the audience now is primed to wait? They've been told too many times that this movie that is being promoted by X star is going to be on streaming in three weeks. So there is literally no reason to see it in a theater.

[C]

I would put that as my number two reason.

[A]

What is the number one in your mind?

[C]

Well, most of the movies haven't been commercial or very good.

[A]

Okay, so you're putting the movies are bad as number one.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Now keep in mind, traditionally that hasn't been the major factor in box office over the years. Yeah, good movies do better generally. But Hollywood has had a very good track record of making, marketing, releasing and cashing in on mediocre to bad movies.

[C]

But if you look at some of the movies that maybe you would have hoped to break out, and I don't know, I'm not necessarily following the Brooks rubric, I'm just gonna talk about some movies. Right, okay. So you had the Bruce Springsteen Movie. We're less than a year away from a Timothy Chalamet Bob Dylan movie that broke out and was successful and got nominated for a bunch of stuff. You know, the difference between that movie and the Bruce Springsteen movie, that movie was that that movie was good and this movie wasn't.

[A]

Well, no, it wasn't. Let's not go good and bad. Let's go what the content was.

[C]

That movie had the music, this movie didn't. That movie had a style. It captured a time. This movie was mostly two hours of someone being depressed. It was not a commercial fun time.

[A]

I get that. And you could say the same for Christie, which is sort of a dour boxing movie where Sydney Sweeney doesn't look great. You could say the same for Die My Love, which Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, big.

[C]

Lynne Ramsey. Right. Lynne Ramsey has never made a big commercial movie, to my knowledge. Am I forgetting something?

[A]

She is not. No. And you know, but there's a Yorgos Lanthimos movie, Begonia, that is struggling to hit 15, 20 million dollars in this country. His last movie was Kinds of Kindness, which did not do any business. But before that, it was Poor Things in the Favorite, which did over $100 million.

[C]

His movies, Feast or Famine. And I would not describe him as. They're not overtly commercial. And I know that this doesn't fit into the smaller movie rubric, but like last year, one of the big movies of fall was the Beetlejuice sequel. Right. Beloved IP reboot. It felt fresh. This year you have a sequel to Tron, a sequel nobody asked for. Right. The one before was already a reboot that did like, okay, this one took forever to make. It's like you just. Sometimes it's just the movies.

[A]

Okay, so you're saying it's the movies as number one. I am saying that we have reached a point in windowing where if it's not an event, good luck to you. Because everybody has been trained to wait.

[C]

So I think that's a totally valid reason. But you know what makes people leave even if they know they're gonna get it at home? If the movie is a moment, if it's compelling, if people wanna go see it. Like last year, remember the biggest kids movie I think of the Fall was Wild Robot. Now, not a huge, huge success, but there was a whole controversy because it got released at home like two and a. It was the 17 day window, right, with Universal and even available at home.

[A]

That was Peabody. It was not on Peacock, but yes, Right.

[C]

But it still did well in theaters because people knew it was great and they wanted to go see it.

[A]

Okay. Yeah. And this fall, there was no kids movie. Trust me, I've been waiting.

[C]

How do you have months without a kids movie? It makes no sense.

[A]

It makes no sense. Like, come on, it's malpractice. Like, we are dying for something. It was a fricking rainy weekend here in la scanning the amc and it's like, there's nothing to take the kids to.

[C]

Yeah, I get that. Like, okay, school is back. And that maybe works for like the first two or three weeks of September, but once you get through that, how has Hollywood not figured out that there should be a kids movie at a minimum every month?

[A]

I know. I don't get it. What about the release strategy issue? Because all of these movies, not all, but a lot of these movies, like Christie and Die My Love and the Julia Roberts movie After the Hunt, also tough subject. Yeah. And for some reason cost $70 million. Like, Jesus Christ, what are we doing? I know it's Luca Guadagnino. I know it's Julia Roberts. But, like, come on, they go wide with these movies. Why are these distributors going wide with these very niche movies?

[C]

I have no idea.

[A]

Well, I think, I know. I think there are a couple factors. First of all, they thought that these press tours would generate enough interest or awareness of the movie where they could get a number. I think that the platform release doesn't make as much sense when people are expecting the movie to go to streaming very quickly. And you can't build and build and build over weeks and weeks and weeks if the streaming window is coming up pretty quickly. And I think there was a confluence of them over the Veterans Day weekend. I think they thought that without a big studio movie to suck up all the oxygen like a Black Panther or something like, you know, Joker, that they would have four days of movie going with the holiday and they could get higher numbers. I think that's what's going on.

[C]

Do you think we're having this conversation if there were one or two more big studio movies? Because isn't one of the problems is that there just aren't as many of them for one reason or another? Some of it might even be like residue of the strikes a couple years ago. Like, I, I, I don't know. I don't know what it is, but there's just not a lot.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Even Christmas, it's like you've got basically two, three, or let's say Thanksgiving to Christmas, which is a huge movie window. You've got like three big titles.

[A]

Yeah. Avatar, Zootopia, Wicked.

[C]

What else is coming out that's, like, guaranteed?

[A]

No, Warner's doesn't even have a movie. Warner's just, like, took the holidays off.

[C]

Yeah, I guess you've got the Five Night at Freddy's sequel. Like, that'll do well, but, you know, that's not a huge, huge movie.

[A]

Yeah, I know. It's. I mean, there's other movies, there's smaller stuff, but you're right, there's nothing on that level. And God, everyone's hoping Avatar is amazing, and I think it probably will be. But, like, beyond that, like, maybe Wicked will make more. You got. You got two of those movies in the box office draft. You need Zootopia and Wicked to do great.

[C]

Correct. Would it matter as much that some of these smaller movies aren't breaking out?

[A]

Yes and no. Like, we probably wouldn't be having the conversation because the overall numbers will be fine. But if there was a billion dollar grocer between September and mid November, like, that doesn't solve the endemic problem we have now, which is that small movies are not finding audiences in theaters. And that is a big problem because you know what the studios are just going to do is they're going to. It's going to get worse. They're not going to see this and say, you know what? We need to strengthen our windows and insist on 45 days. They're gonna say, oh, we should just put more of these movies on streaming faster because there we can get some value out of these press tours and out of our campaigns quicker.

[C]

Well, or they'll say, we just shouldn't make these movies.

[A]

Yeah, maybe that's true, too.

[C]

Is there one of these movies that looking at it, you feel like that most surprised you that it didn't work. Like, after the Hunt feels like a movie that in another year or in another era might have broken through. Right. You've got a stylish director and a movie star that people still kind of care about and some good young talent. But it's almost like a little too intellectual to be a real breakout movie.

[A]

It's polarizing. It makes you angry.

[C]

Like his previous movie, the tennis movie, the name of which I'm blanking on, I guess he had two movies last year, Challengers. Challengers, yeah, he had Challengers, but then he also didn't. He also have the other one. And, like, one of them worked really. Challengers worked really well, and the other didn't. Because Challengers feels like a commercial movie.

[A]

Yeah. And it's got Zendaya in it. And she's a big star.

[B]

Yeah, he had Queer with Daniel Craig.

[C]

Yeah, but that was never gonna do well.

[A]

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[C]

I don't think that the press tour is to blame.

[A]

You don't?

[C]

No, I don't think people are going, okay, I like, got my fill of Sydney Sweeney. I don't.

[A]

I watch Glen Powell on Hot Ones. I don't need to see him in the Running Man.

[C]

I think done right, it should feed into the movie.

[A]

Yeah, but that's my point is that it's not done right. Like there's no connection being made.

[C]

But again, I think that brings it back. Like the problem is the movie, not the press tour.

[A]

But what if the press tour could be altered? What if less is more? You know, we'll see with Chalamet. Chalamet seems to be going full court press for Marty supreme and he's very good at this, so maybe it will translate into getting people to see a smaller movie. But I just, you know, Jennifer Lawrence is charming when she's doing these videos online and it's just not translating into the movie.

[B]

I think the difference between what Chalamet's doing and what Pattinson and Jennifer Lawrence are doing is that everything Timothee Chalamet is doing, I mean, he's probably the biggest, you know, young star right now, but everything he's doing is about Marty Supreme. Like, he's decked out in Marty Supreme. He keeps talking about Marty Supreme. It's all about the movie. Like, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson are just like doing a lie detector test or doing Hot Ones. Like, it's more self promotion and more about them and their chemistry, but it's not about the movie.

[C]

And that works if the movie is fundamentally about that. Like when Jennifer Lawrence did no Hard Feelings. I think that type of press tour would work better because you're basically going to no hard feelings, like, have fun with Jennifer Lawrence.

[B]

It's also hard to talk about a movie about postpartum depression and all of your press. So I understand Timmy has an easier job with Marty supreme, which is a fun 50s ping pong movie, but I do think that is a factor.

[A]

Yeah. And remember he performed on SNL as Bob Dylan.

[C]

Who is the audience for some of these titles for Christie? Sydney Sweeney. Tough boxing movie. Supposed to be an awards. It's like, it's a good movie, but not a great movie featuring an actress that people like for something totally different. Like, I think if she's doing a press tour for a movie that fits what people want to see her in, it does fine. But this is clearly just not the movie people want to see her in.

[A]

Then that leads to my question. Why do it?

[C]

Because you have to.

[A]

I know. That's why they pay you. They don't pay you to act, they pay you to promote.

[C]

You have to try to get people to see it. That's why. That's. That's one of the big reasons you hire Sydney Sweeney is you think people are interested in her.

[A]

And Teddy Schwartzman was on this show talking about that. And I think one of the reasons they went wide with that movie was because they realized how much press they could get with Sydney Sweeney. It just, it doesn't work automatically.

[C]

The Glen Powell press tour fits a little more with the movie because it's like it is. It should be like a big commercial movie that. But to your point, people probably aren't going just to see Glenn Powell 16.

[A]

And change this weekend. Like, not great, but still probably more.

[C]

Than some of the other movies we described will make in their entire run.

[A]

True, but that's the bigger movie. But you know, I talked to one studio executive who's behind a lot of these marketing campaigns, and he was saying, like, we're essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves and their personal brands and they are not necessarily making that connection to the movie. Like, this press tour was great for Sydney Sweeney. Whatever endorsement deal she does next, her profile is much higher. And it's an interesting question. It's like, who is the press tour for then? Is it for the star and there are other businesses that they get out of being bigger and more famous, or is it for the movie because the studio's the one paying for it?

[C]

Well, I'm trying to think prior to Chalamet with Marty supreme, like, what was the best star press tour of the year that actually drove people to the movie?

[A]

Yeah, Materialist with Dakota Johnson and her bizarre comments. And like, there are people who are good at this.

[C]

Right? I actually think in his own way, like the Ryan Coogler stuff before Sinners.

[A]

Yeah, he was great. He was great. But you know what it is? You know why he was great? He articulated in very clear way why you should see this movie and what made it unique. He went through his whole filmmaking process and he said to his audience, this is why I made this movie. This is what makes it cool. Come see it.

[C]

Right? It was about the movie. It was about the movie.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Again, though, cool. Big, expensive vampire movie with a star. Coogler's a cool director. Like, it's different than after the Hunt. To me, it's just like, no one. There's no reason for anybody to go to the theater to see an adult drama anymore. It's just the way it is now.

[C]

I stick with. And it's not the most exciting point. It's the movies. Most of these movies are not commercials, so they didn't do well. That's why. And no star is going to fix that.

[A]

My response is Hollywood used to be able to squeak out on those movies to make them, and every five or six movies, there would be a hit.

[B]

Don't you think, though, Matt, this press tour stuff, that it will ultimately help when the movie goes to streaming?

[A]

Yeah, maybe. I'm sure Christie will do much better on VOD than a random title.

[B]

Because if Sydney Sweeney's all over your phone and Glen Powell's all over your phone, the second now his face is on your tv, on Netflix, or on whatever streaming platform you'll click it.

[C]

Yes. Although the Glen Powell press tour mostly made me want to go back and rewatch Hitman.

[A]

Yeah, the Netflix thing is also a big great. I mean, if you talk about two movies that would have done very well in theaters this fall, probably Frankenstein, which my sources have told me that the numbers went up each weekend in theaters, and that's very rare. But it didn't get a wide release. It got like, 400 theaters. And the Knives out sequel, Knives Out 3 would do great if it was in theaters.

[C]

Knives out definitely would. Frankenstein. I don't know.

[A]

I think it would have done okay.

[C]

They might have made their initial investment almost back, but not the market. Yeah.

[A]

You know, the nice thing about not releasing these big movies is that you don't have to charge the marketing expenses on your quarterly earnings. Did you see the Disney earnings this past week? They said that they are going to take about $400 million in charges in the next quarter for the release of Avatar 3 and Zootopia 2. And as you know, marketing expenses get charged when the movie gets released.

[C]

Yeah, they won't really benefit from Avatar until the following quarter.

[A]

Which leads to the Warner's question, and that is why they have no movies in the fourth quarter, because they are trying to increase their financials in order to sell the company. All right, so we've done a bad job ranking this. You're still. You're sticking with movies aren't good, then the windowing, then movies aren't good changes.

[C]

Windowing, slash changes in behavior. And as a result of the shifting nature of movies in society, I also just don't think movie stars aren't as big or don't matter as much as they used to. Okay, to your point, there are more places to access them, right? I can spend time with a lot of these actors just like watching clips. And I don't need to watch in the same way that I'll watch a clip of a podcast I don't actually like. Mind the game, LeBron's podcast. Love watching clips. Will never watch the whole thing.

[A]

Yeah, we're now a clip culture. We're getting all of our content in bite size amounts. And it's gotta be extra special to want to see two hours of something sad. Sad but true. Craig, you ruined everything. Your generation ruined everything. We really did. I know.

[B]

What have we done?

[A]

Well, I'm not sure. Food posts. A lot of food posts.

[B]

I actually do love food content online. It's like the only thing I watch on the panic scale, though. Like the panic scale on this fall as a larger referendum on the state of smaller theatrical movies. Where are you at on the panic scale?

[A]

I'm higher than Lucas. I'm at like a 7 or 8. Lucas thinks that better movies would equal better box office. Right.

[C]

Specific to these movies and this moment, my panic scale is like a five, if that. If I'm thinking what is happening with the movie business and all that, my panic scale is higher, but I've been saying that for a few years and a lot of people just wanted to tell me to shut up, so.

[A]

And if Marty supreme doesn't work, that's bad.

[C]

We didn't even talk about Smashing Machine. That's one that I would have thought would have done a little better. Maybe like a pretty big star doing a movie that's like kind of in his wheelhouse, but I guess. But the subject matter and the tone is probably not when people want the like I will admit I spent the first half of the movie having like a hard time buying into either of those actors in their roles. It just like, didn't feel natural for either of them.

[B]

So.

[A]

So the rock was There last night, Governor's Awards making the rounds. He's still clinging to that Oscar nomination dream.

[C]

Yeah, well, he can. I think one safdie is going to outduel the other in this area.

[A]

I met Josh for the first time last night. Very nice guy. All right, well, Lucas, I will be at Zootopia and the spongebob movie this holiday season. And Hollywood, come on, More kids movies. Thank you, Lucas.

[C]

Thanks, Matt.

[A]

We are back with the call sheet. Craig. Before we get into J. Kelly and our experience at the premiere last week, we have to do some accountability for box office. My predictions. Last week, I took the under on 20 million for the running man hit. That one came in.

[B]

It was 24, I think. You took the under.

[A]

Oh, yeah. It was 24. It was 20 on now you see me. Yes, it was 24. NRG had running man at 24. Some of the others had lower. But I think we went with the NRG number and, man, it like, barely got to 17. So I hit that one. I took the under on 20 for now youw see me three. And I lost that one. It came in at like, what, 21.3 or something like that?

[C]

Yep.

[B]

Now there's probably gonna be a fourth one. People love these movies.

[C]

Of course there will.

[A]

Of course there will.

[C]

All right.

[A]

Speaking of movies, J. Kelly, we went to the premiere. This is Netflix's big awards movie. They have several, but they have a lot riding on J. Kelly. They want nominations across the board. You and I both like the movie. Um, interesting. They have now screened this movie, like Noah Baumbach announced at the premiere. They've taken it to, like, 26 festivals. Like, it's so funny to me that Netflix, which doesn't give its movies real theatrical releases, screens their movies in person for awards more than any other company I know. It's almost like they know that the experience of watching a movie is better in a theater.

[B]

There's something funny about seeing, like, the big Netflix logo on a. On a big screen before the movie plays. Cause you're so used to seeing it at home.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Baumbach was joking about how he's been to 27 different locations to premiere this movie.

[A]

I know. And I had him. I had him and Emily Mortimer and the casting director Nina Gold at my Puck event on Friday night. They were great. And the great thing about that movie is how accurate it gets the life of the representative. Like, these people that are around the stars all the time. Like, yes, you get to fly in the private jet, but you are, you know, at Beck and Call getting a glass of seltzer water at any moment's notice. It's the worst, most unglamorous life. And people think it's this, like, you know, glamorous, jet setting life. I actually bumped into Liz Mahoney at the party. She is Noah Baumbach's publicist. And there's a character in the movie played by Laura Dern, the publicist named Liz. So, of course, you know, everyone thinks it's based on Liz Mahoney. I asked her, she was like, kind of. I thought she'd be annoyed. I'd heard she was annoyed, but she was like, ah, whatever. It's all fun. And I asked Noah at our event if it was based on him, and he was coy about it. So I think that'll be a narrative throughout the season. He's not going to outright admit it, but it was definitely fun. And this is the big awards thing for Netflix, so they just screen the shit out of it and it works for them. It's good. They make it very easy. And, like, the party was great. You had never been to the Chateau before? I was surprised by that.

[B]

No, I had only been to the pool area or the bar. I've never actually been to the hotel, which I get the hype. It was very nice.

[A]

Yeah, it's a nice venue. And it's like, it's where the, like, classier awards parties are. Like, if you're really, like, trying to make an impression, like, they have a real bar and they have, you know, you can get real cocktails and, like, it's. It just feels more elevated and cool. Most surprising person at that party, maybe Brad Pitt that he showed up for Clooney. Olivia Rodrigo.

[B]

Maybe Olivia Rodrigo's there because her boyfriend is in the movie. Yeah, he plays young Billy Crudup.

[A]

Oh, right. Good transition as well, because that is actually my prediction. I am not an Oscar prognosticator, but I do have a pretty good sense of these things. And my prediction from that screening and from everything that I have seen is Billy Crudup is getting an Oscar nomination for this movie. And that is surprising only because he's only in, like, two scenes in the movie. Sandler is probably going to get nominated in supporting, including maybe for leading. But I think Billy Crudup is such a scene stealer in this movie that he is going to get a nomination despite only being in a couple scenes.

[B]

I know. I wonder what the record is for the shortest screen time to translate to a nomination.

[A]

I think it's Judi Dench. For playing Queen Elizabeth in Shakespeare in Love. I believe that is true. Check me on that. I'm sure. A million Oscar prognosticators.

[B]

I totally agree with you, though. I think it's the best scene in the movie and that was our takeaway. The first thing we said as we walked out of the theater was that the crude scene was fantastic and that he completely took over.

[A]

He's the best. I love him as an actor. He's the only one who knows what the morning show actually is. He knows he's on a campy soap and everyone else thinks they're making prestige television. He's just going for it. He's kind of the reason I still watch. So, yeah. My prediction, Billy Crudup Oscar nomination. Take it to the bank. Take it to Kalshee.

[B]

And what a moment for Shay Jay.

[A]

Shay Jay does have a moment in this movie.

[B]

That's the Billy Crudup scene. Shay Jeff.

[A]

Yeah, and they have a little. I don't want to spoil it, but they have a nice little parking lot scene as well. Yeah, we should do something at Shay Jay. Should have a little the town live event or something there.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay. Take over the parking lot.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

I was going to say it's kind.

[A]

Of small in there, but yeah, it is a little. Yeah. All right. That's the show for today. I want to thank my guests Lukas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. I'll see you a couple more times this week.

[C]

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[A]

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[C]

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[A]

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