The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Fall Box Office Crisis: A Phase, a Fluke, or the Future?

Date: November 17, 2025
Guests: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horbeck (Producer)

Main Theme & Purpose

Matthew Belloni is joined by Lucas Shaw to unpack the troubling state of the fall box office, particularly the collapse of independent, mid-budget, and awards-hopeful movies. The discussion dissects the underlying problems behind the lack of theatrical hits, evaluates the often-futile role of celebrity press tours, and reflects on whether this downturn is temporary, a scheduling fluke, or a lasting trend likely to reshape the future of Hollywood releases.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fall Box Office Trends & Crisis

• Dramatic Drop in Box Office:

  • Fall 2025 sees box office grosses down ~40% from pre-COVID levels.
  • No major studio tentpoles during September and October.
  • “Disney’s Tron flopped… Universal played it kind of small, and Warner Brothers doesn’t even have any movies for the rest of the year.” (Belloni, 01:28)
  • Notably, among 25 major comedy and drama releases, zero crossed the $50 million mark considered the threshold of a “hit” (05:55).

• Wide Release, Wide Failure:

  • Star-driven indies and mid-budget movies, e.g.:
    • The Smashing Machine (The Rock)
    • Christie (Sydney Sweeney)
    • Die My Love (Jennifer Lawrence & Robert Pattinson)
    • Begonia (Emma Stone)
    • Bruce Springsteen movie
  • All were “rejected” by audiences despite wide releases (2,000+ screens).
  • “After the Hunt” (Julia Roberts) cost $70M, grossed just $3M domestic (02:55).

2. What’s to Blame for the Slump?

A. Quality and Commercial Appeal of Movies

• Lucas Shaw: “Most of the movies haven’t been commercial or very good.” (09:15)

• Belloni challenges this, noting Hollywood’s historical ability to market and profit from mediocre fare.

• Examples:

  • The Bruce Springsteen movie vs. previous music biopics: “That movie had the music, this movie didn’t …that movie was good and this movie wasn’t.” (09:38–10:08)
  • Yorgos Lanthimos (Begonia)—struggling, compared to his previous modestly commercial hits.

B. The ‘Windowing’ Problem & Shifted Audience Behavior

• Shortened theatrical windows (“watch at home soon” messaging) have led audiences to delay seeing non-event films in theaters.
• Belloni: “If it's not an event, good luck to you. Because everybody has been trained to wait.” (11:18)
• Shaw agrees, but sees it as a secondary factor: movies themselves aren't compelling enough to force ‘urgent viewing’.

C. Lack of Kids’ Movies and Scheduling Issues

• No significant kids’ movies released—missed opportunity, termed “malpractice” given demand (12:10–12:24).
• Release clustering over Veterans Day—hopes that the absence of a major competing tentpole would give a boost, but this didn’t materialize (13:08–13:57).

D. Going Wide vs. Platforming

• Distributors gamble on wide releases to maximize holiday traffic and press tour attention, but niche, challenging subjects (e.g., Christie, Die My Love, After the Hunt) do not benefit from this model (12:36–13:13).

3. Role and Effectiveness of Press Tours

• Press Tours Overexposed, Under-Deliver:

  • Skepticism about whether omnipresent stars actually drive moviegoing.
  • Belloni: “We are essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves and their personal brands and they are not necessarily making that connection to the movie.” (23:06)
  • Example: Sydney Sweeney’s exhaustive press blitz for Christie failed to translate to ticket sales:
    • “It almost works against your movie because people get their fill of you in their feeds and they're not translating that to going to the movies.” (19:45)

• Press Tour Strategies: Effective or Not?

  • Chalamet’s campaign for “Marty Supreme” described as a rare, focused, and movie-centric effort that could make a difference (20:33–21:13).
  • Most press tours now feed the star’s celebrity more than the movie: “We're essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves…” (23:06)
  • Craig: “If Sydney Sweeney's all over your phone... the second now his face is on your tv... you'll click it.” (24:38)
  • Net effect: might help later on streaming, but does little to boost theatrical attendance.

4. The Shrinking Value of Movie Stars

• Shaw: “Movie stars aren't as big or don’t matter as much as they used to... I can spend time with a lot of these actors just like watching clips.” (26:07)
• Belloni: “We’re now a clip culture... it’s gotta be extra special to want to see two hours of something sad.” (26:34)

5. Financial Strategies and Studio Behavior

• Retailored Release Schedules:
  • Studios, facing poor box office prospects, shift more films to streaming and avoid theatrical risk (15:01–15:46).
  • Warner Bros. releases nothing Q4—attempting to boost financials, “because they are trying to increase their financials in order to sell the company.” (25:49)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We've just decided that there’s like a certain type of movie that should break out. And I don't know that it should... things are not fine at the box office.”
  — Lucas Shaw (07:22)

• “It's malpractice. Like, we are dying for something… there's nothing to take the kids to.”
  — Matthew Belloni on absence of kids’ movies (12:12)

• “All these movies… go wide with these very niche movies. I have no idea [why].”
  — Lucas Shaw on poor release strategies (13:08)

• “We're essentially paying for these stars to promote themselves... and they are not necessarily making that connection to the movie.”
  — Matthew Belloni (23:06)

• “To me, it's just like, no one—there’s no reason for anybody to go to the theater to see an adult drama anymore. It’s just the way it is now.”
  — Craig (23:54)

• “I'm at like a 7 or 8 [panic scale]. Lucas thinks that better movies would equal better box office... Specific to these movies, my panic scale is like a five, if that. If I'm thinking …about the movie business, my panic scale is higher.”
  — Panic assessment (27:06–27:13)

Important Timestamps

• Box office crisis summary & recent flops (01:28–02:55)
• Defining the issue: zero $50M+ releases (05:55)
• Debate: Is bad product or windowing to blame? (09:13–11:18)
• Kids’ movie gap and scheduling missteps (12:10–12:36)
• Why go wide with niche films? (13:08–13:57)
• Streaming’s impact and studio strategies (15:01–15:46, 25:21–25:49)
• Effectiveness and point of celebrity press tours (19:45–21:13, 23:06)
• Press tour’s role in streaming success (24:33–24:51)
• The shrinking draw of movie stars (26:07–26:34)
• Panic scale for adult dramas (27:06)
• Award season party talk & J. Kelly buzz (29:12–31:44)
• Billy Crudup’s Oscar chances for “J. Kelly” (32:18–32:41)

Wrap-Up & Takeaways

• Structural Problems Persist: There is no easy fix for the theatrical struggles of small-to-mid-budget movies. Even with heavy press, if the movie isn’t an event or doesn’t have wide commercial appeal, audiences increasingly prefer to wait for streaming.

• Studio Shift Likely to Accelerate: Weak returns will reinforce studio tendencies to push more content directly to streaming and skip risky wide releases for smaller films.

• Press Tours: For Stars, Not for Tickets: Ubiquitous star promotion is fueling celebrity branding, not ticket sales—audiences are content with social media glances, rarely translating online popularity into box office gold.

• Hope Rests on Event Releases: Without exceptional “must-see” movies—either mega-tentpoles or unique, buzzy exceptions—the shaken box office is likely to remain weak across the autumn months.

Engaging Moments

• Belloni’s exasperation at studios skipping kids’ films (12:12): “It's malpractice… nothing to take the kids to.”
• Meta-commentary on press tours (20:33–21:13): “Chalamet seems to be going full court press for Marty supreme and he's very good at this, so maybe it will translate…”
• Prediction of Billy Crudup Oscar nomination despite minimal screen time (32:18): “He is going to get a nomination despite only being in a couple scenes.”

Conclusion

A sobering but incisive episode, offering a candid, inside-Hollywood autopsy of why the fall box office is broken—and why little is likely to change unless the underlying economics, creative risk-taking, and consumer habits shift. The future for smaller movies in theaters looks grim, and both stars and studios may have to rethink their approach if theatrical exhibition is to recover even a fraction of its former glory.