The Future Blockbusters Draft: The Directors, Actors, and IP That Will Define the Next Decade

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Future Blockbusters Draft: The Directors, Actors, and IP That Will Define the Next Decade

Date: July 27, 2026
Host: Matthew Belloni (A)
Guest: Lucas Shaw (B)
Special Segment Guest: Craig Horbeck (C)

Episode Overview

This episode kicks off a special two-part series where Matthew Belloni and Lucas Shaw conduct a fantasy "Future Blockbusters Draft." The premise: If you were a studio chief building a roster to dominate the box office for the next 10 years, which directors, actors, or intellectual properties (IP) would you pick first? The draft blends exclusive insight, playful debate, and real industry analysis to predict what and who will drive Hollywood's biggest hits through 2036.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Draft (02:14–04:09)

• Draft Premise: Belloni and Shaw alternate picks, building a "team" of blockbuster elements (specific IP, directors, or actors) for the next decade. TV is excluded; only movie prospects count.
• Selection Rules:
  • Can pick individual characters or franchises (e.g., Spider-Man, not all of Marvel).
  • Only filmmakers who direct (not just producers like Amy Pascal or Jason Blum).
  • Picks are meant as foundational pieces for hypothetical studio empires.

Notable Quote:

“If I was a studio head or a top producer presented with the next Chris Nolan movie, I’d take that way before the next movie starring Leo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan or any of the stars that are supposedly filling theaters, wouldn’t you?” — Matt Belloni [01:17]

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2. The First Five Draft Picks

Pick 1: Spider-Man (Shaw) [04:27]

• Justification: Most resilient and valuable superhero IP, “bulletproof” in box office and cultural relevance.

  "Spider-Man appears to be bulletproof... I think Spider-Man remains the king of all of this, and there’s not really any argument against it." — Lucas Shaw [04:39]

Pick 2: Mario Brothers (Belloni) [06:08]

• Rationale: Universal appeal, proven billion-dollar track record, strong opportunities for sequels and spinoffs.

  "There are going to be Mario Brothers movies every three years for the next 10 to 15 years." — Matt Belloni [06:25]

• Debate: Shaw questions the 30% drop from the first movie to the second, raising concerns about franchise sustainability.

Pick 3: Christopher Nolan (Shaw) [08:03]

• Reason: Most dependable big-movie director; consistently turns non-obvious concepts into global events.

  "I just think... the most dependable director where everything he touches turns to gold.” — Lucas Shaw [08:13] “Oppenheimer and Odyssey have now put him on another plane from all the other directors, with the possible exception of Jim Cameron.” — Lucas Shaw [09:38]

Pick 4: Ryan Coogler (Belloni) [10:01]

• Why: Straddles critical and commercial success, versatile (original stories and franchise hits), prolific producer.

  “He’s in that Nolan pantheon, where whatever he does is going to be considered event.”— Matt Belloni [10:02] “He is committed to making commercial movies… Nolan is kind of a mentor to him.” — Lucas Shaw [10:47]

Pick 5: Shrek (Shaw) [12:15]

• Argument: Next wave of nostalgia, massive cross-generational appeal ("Shrek 5" and upcoming Donkey spinoff). Studios have a 10-year plan.

  "Shrek 5 is going to be huge... It sort of has perfect cross-generational awareness." — Lucas Shaw [12:52]

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3. Additional Top Picks and Strategy Discussion

Batman (Belloni) [14:13]

• Rationale: Perennial reliability and flexibility ("If it sucks, you can always reboot Batman").

Demon Slayer (Shaw) [15:36]

• Bold Choice: Bets on the global growth of anime; latest Demon Slayer film made $793M worldwide.

  “Anime is something with real global appeal that is only getting bigger.” — Lucas Shaw [16:25]

Frozen (Belloni) [19:16]

• Logic: Undefeated family box office property, ongoing expansion (multiple sequels, park integration).

  “Frozen is massive… this is going to be, that and Moana, the biggest property for young girls.” — Matt Belloni [19:55]

X-Men (Shaw) [22:11]

• Potential: With Disney’s stewardship, X-Men poised for a big creative reboot and resurgence.

Michael B. Jordan (Belloni) [23:36]

• Case: Box office draw, strong creative vision, actor/director hybrid ("he is the movie star you want for the next 10 years").

  “He has proven he can open a movie... He is consistently underrated when it comes to his lure for audiences.” — Matt Belloni [23:47]

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4. Intellectual Property Fatigue and Timing (06:41–07:55; 12:52–13:34; 19:55–21:44)

• Studios are highly concerned about “franchise fatigue” and the proper pacing between sequels/spinoffs.
• Timing and awareness are key—for example, the question of how soon to roll out Mario, Minions, Frozen, or Shrek entries to avoid brand exhaustion.

Notable Quotes:

“Do they just say that’s normal, it happens with any franchise… or do they need to really wait?” — Lucas Shaw on Mario [06:41]

“Is there appetite to quickly follow up [Shrek] Five with more movies and will there be similar interest?” — Lucas Shaw [13:01]

“I probably overthought it, and you picked the meat and potatoes pick.” — Lucas Shaw on Frozen [19:55]

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5. Calculated Risks and Diverse Picks (15:05–25:44)

• Both hosts balance “safe” legacy IP with riskier, trending properties (e.g., Demon Slayer, X-Men).
• Recognition that international growth and shifting nostalgia cycles are increasingly powerful.
• Notable emerging stars (Zendaya, Chalamet) discussed, but both land on Michael B. Jordan as most versatile.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Chris Nolan’s status:

  “He may come to a point where he’s more like Spielberg, where it’s hit and miss, but... I think he’s still in the sweet spot.” — Lucas Shaw [09:17]

• Franchise reboot resilience:

  “Even if it sucks, you can always reboot Batman and there's always some hot new filmmaker that will come in.” — Matt Belloni [14:19]

• Michael B. Jordan:

  “He is the movie star that you want. What is his age?... He’ll be 40 in February.” — Lucas Shaw & Matt Belloni [25:01–25:31]

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6. Industry News Segment: Paramount/Warner Discovery Merger (26:08–33:39)

• Craig Horbeck returns for a news update: Paramount delays the WarnerMount merger amidst regulatory challenges.
• Key points:
  • Antitrust claims have led to trial delays, impacting potential merger closure.
  • Massive breakup fees and strategic limbo threaten both companies.
  • The ongoing legal fight is seen as a political and financial chess match.

Notable Quote:

“They are going to go, go, go until the Supreme Court either decides in their favor, tells them to get lost, or declines to take the case.” — Matt Belloni [30:52]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Draft Setup and Rules: 02:14–04:09
• Pick 1–5 (Spider-Man, Mario, Nolan, Coogler, Shrek): 04:27–13:35
• Discussion on Franchise Fatigue/Timing: 06:41, 13:01, 19:55
• On Michael B. Jordan as the Ultimate Movie Star: 23:36–25:44
• Paramount/Warner News Analysis (with Craig): 26:08–33:39

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Flow and Tone

The episode retains a sharp, industry-savvy tone full of playful jabs, honest critiques, and offhand humor:

“I know how much [American Pie] means to you... Are you picking American Pie?” — Matt Belloni [12:13]

Despite the draft-game format, the conversation stays grounded in real industry stakes, giving listeners high-level strategic insight with plenty of popcorn-worthy rivalry.

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Summary

Part one of the Future Blockbusters Draft is a wide-ranging, highly entertaining look at who—and what—will define the moviegoing landscape for the next decade. Belloni and Shaw’s picks reflect both the enduring power of classic franchises and the unpredictable rise of genre trends like anime, blending cold business analysis with genuine fan enthusiasm. If you want to know what Hollywood insiders really believe about the years ahead, this episode is essential listening.

(The draft continues in part two)

Transcript

[A]

Foreign. This episode is presented by AMC Network. A new chapter in Anne Rice's immortal universe begins with AMC's the Vampire Lestat. Get a backstage pass to the iconic frontman who Pace Magazine calls a Bowie inspired rocker that will have fans screaming, don't miss the legendary vampire Lestat de Liancourt in his own electrifying rock saga. Experience the glory and darkness. Binge the Vampire Lestat only on amc. Learn more at amc. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales using automation, analytics and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com Spotify. Com it is Monday, July 27th. Of all the discourse around the Odyssey and Chris Nolan this past week and a half, the most interesting to me is this question of whether filmmakers are the new intellectual properties. I raised this issue in my Puck newsletter and came to the conclusion that a level IP is still a level ip. I'd still rather own Spider man rights than the next film from any filmmaker, including Chris Nolan. But I'd argue that the very top filmmakers are the new movie stars, a much more effective lure for fans than whoever is actually starring in the movie. After all, if I was a studio head or a top producer presented with the next Chris Nolan movie, I'd take that way before the next movie starring Leo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan or any of the stars that are supposedly filling theaters, wouldn't you? That's today's show. When presented with the choice of any element, an actor, a filmmaker, a piece of ip, which would you choose first? Lukas Shaw is here. We're going to do one of our drafts, but this time it's a future blockbuster draft of sorts. We're each picking 10 elements, directors, actors or intellectual properties that we think will help us win the box office from now through the next 10 years.

[B]

Got it?

[A]

We will explain. Today is the first of a very special two part episode, the future blockbuster draft from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy. Lucas, this is a complicated draft, so I'm going to have to lay out some of the ground rules. Are you ready for this?

[B]

I am. We've Been debating them feverishly for the last minute.

[A]

I know. We know. I don't like to bother you during the week with texts that Craig and I are constantly discussing.

[B]

Well, I deserve it because I like, sort of proposed this, but then we had to figure out what it meant.

[A]

Exactly. The drafts are hard. You got to really define your terms. So this is the future blockbuster draft. So you and I are going to go back and forth picking elements. These are things that we would want to have in our movies. We're only doing movies, no TV. We are picking a team for the next 10 years.

[B]

So you're a studio chief and you're assembling your own Avengers. And as is the case with our previous sort of franchise ip, you can select individual characters or franchises like Spider man, but not all of Marvel. Like Batman, but not all of dc.

[A]

This is the first time we have compared properties IP with people, filmmakers, stars.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

No non writing producers. You can pick a filmmaker who also produces and you get their producing projects. But we're not picking, you know, Amy Pascal or Jason Blum, Chris Melodandri, people who do not direct as well. Also, they're quasi. Their companies are quasi owned or partially owned by the studios. So they are out. We are going for the elements that you would assemble. If you were assembling a film project, what would you want most? All right, understood.

[B]

I'm there.

[A]

We're going to go back and forth. And then Craig is getting a butt lift this week, so he's out. Producer Jesse is here, and we will go back and forth. And at the end, Jesse will explain the teams and pick who he thinks will be the winner here. So you get the first pick.

[B]

Okay, I think the first pick is obvious, at least to me. It's still Spider Man.

[A]

God damn it.

[C]

I know.

[A]

I thought you were gonna pick some auteur filmmaker. Like, there's nothing as dominant as Spider Man.

[B]

I know. Yes. We're in this year where we were talking about, okay, there's new filmmaking talent, there's new IP that people are excited about. There's old IP that people are bored of. Spider man appears to be bulletproof. This new movie is looking like it's gonna be the biggest movie of the year. You know, famous last words. I have it on my team for our box office draft, so maybe it won't be. But between that and the fact that they still have the animated franchise humming. That is very popular. I just. I think Spider man remains the king of all of this, and there's not really any argument against it.

[A]

I totally agree. I think it is now the outlier amongst superheroes where most of the other superhero franchises have shown weakness and have questions around them. Even Avengers and even Batman. If this Batman movie from Matt Reeves is ever gonna happen.

[B]

I think Batman is strong, but not yet. There's not like excitement around it in the same way that there seems to be with Spider man or really any of the Marvel properties other than I guess, Deadpool.

[A]

Yeah, but they're heading on number four now, so that's a challenge. Spider man. And also it comes in two varieties.

[B]

It comes in live action and animated and we're not even getting into the spinoffs, so.

[A]

Yeah, yes, agreed. So all right. That's a smart number one pick. My number one pick. I am also going to go with a franchise. I am going to take Mario Brothers.

[B]

Interesting. Okay.

[A]

Even though this second movie, the Galaxy movie, was softer than than the first, it still got to a billion. And there are spinoff possibilities and we can set the parameter however we want. But I believe that if there's a Princess Peach movie, it should count under Mario Brothers. Maybe Donkey Kong is separate because that was a game on its own and that would be a separate franchise. But there are going to be Mario brothers movies every three years for the next 10 to 15 years. So I'm going to put my money there.

[B]

The question there is what lesson do they take from a drop off of kind of 30ish percent from 1 to 2? Do they just say that's normal? It happens with any franchise. Do they say we need to take a second and figure out like really wait for the third one? Because I do think one of the big discussions happening at all these studios right now is sort of what is the appropriate time off between properties where we don't exhaust people.

[A]

Yeah. Especially after Minions. I mean, the feeling at Universal is they went too soon with another Minions movie and it really damaged the franchise.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And then the whole Moana debacle where they put the sequel out before the live action remake and that was a problem. But that's pretty unique.

[B]

I had Mario on the list. I did have it considerably further down in part because that drop off from the 1 to 2, like, I don't know with some of these properties if there's just like so much pent up enthusiasm for the first one and then like are they going to be able to sustain it across multiple movies? I do think with Mario it's like it's something that isn't globally known and it's in the hands of someone in Illumination and Universal. That has been pretty good at managing these franchises.

[A]

I just think it's safe. I'm going the safe pick. So for number one, but we're going to make some more interesting choices here. So what's your number two?

[B]

This is where I'm already starting to deviate, so I'm taking Nolan number two.

[A]

God damn it. You're doing my draft here.

[B]

Well, those were my clear consensus first and second picks. I had Mario further down. I just think the clear winner among franchises and the most dependable director where everything that he touches turns to gold. Right now, I know that he's saying he needs to take years off after this. I'll believe that when I see it. And also, if that happens, if you're just telling me who do I want to be in business with, I would take Christopher Nolan over any other non Spider man individual franchise right now. Just because the consistency is there and there seems to be an audience for his movies. Kind of. He's not picking things that on their face are like, yep, Oppenheimer. A million people are gonna show up to see this adult drama. Oh, yes, the Odyssey is an epic, but that movie, like, the first bit of it is kind of slow. And it's. You know, his movies are more thoughtful than your average blockbuster. And so it just feels like he's entered a sweet spot and he's at the right age where I think he. Because we're only doing 10 years, I

[A]

think he's in his prime.

[B]

He's in his Prime. The next 10 years are still gonna be really good. He may come to a point where he's more like Spielberg, where it's hit and miss, but. But I think he's still in the sweet spot.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, that's over. Spielberg, Ridley Scott, those guys are heading out of their prime. And they're, you know, they're still working, but they're not reliable. This guy is. And he works in imax, which is the future. Right.

[B]

All the PLF premium screens. He's. He's just. He has. Oppenheimer and Odyssey have now put him on another plane from all of the other directors, with the possible exception of Jim Cameron. But he's just, you know, he's been in Pandora for 20 years, so we're just gonna let him be.

[A]

Okay. So I'm gonna. For my number two, I'm also gonna take a filmmaker. I'll take Ryan Coogler.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

And the reason I'm taking him is not just because he's had big success with sinners. I think he's in that Nolan pantheon, where whatever he does is going to be considered event. He works pretty constantly. Like, he's got a lot of projects in the works right now, and he produces as well. He's producing TV and X Files, but he's also producing some other stuff. And then he's willing to work in franchises. He's doing Black Panther 3 next, I

[B]

think of the directors Coogler's consensus number two choice, Vulture, put out that list of the 100 most powerful directors. Powerful is a loaded word. But I do think that I have

[A]

some issues with that list. But the top five were pretty much what. What I would say.

[B]

I generally agree. And yes, the 12 of Nolan Coogler, with Nolan in a category of his own, I agree with. And yeah, I think the important thing about Ryan Coogler, which you identified, is that he is committed to making commercial movies. Right. He doesn't want to make dumb movies he is making. There's a reason that Sinners earned a bunch of awards nominations. But I think that he wants to make kind of movies that people go to the theater to see and has the same interest. Like, Nolan is kind of a mentor to him in terms of formats and all that stuff. I guess I'll be curious what he does. I don't know that he. His movies are outside of Black Panther, which we don't get. The properties part of it are going to be. Are as big as some of the other franchises that I want to take, maybe.

[A]

But I'd bet on him. If I was a studio head or a producer, I'd be like, yes, he's on my team. And the guy's. He's 40 years old. Yeah, he's 40. Talk about entering your prime.

[B]

Yeah, no, I don't. I can't quibble with it.

[A]

Okay, number three. So don't piss me off here.

[B]

I might piss you off. I am a big believer that the new nostalgia is late 90s and early 2000s, and that the movies from that period are what we're seeing work. We saw it with Devil Wears Prada. I think we're gonna see it later this year with Fockers.

[A]

So you're picking American Pie?

[B]

You know, I know how much that movie means to you and that a lot. I think you and I are. I'll be curious for our box office draft for next year. Cause I think you and I are generally in alignment about what one of the biggest movies will be.

[A]

Oh, damn it.

[B]

And so I actually have a tie of nostalgia ip, but because I know you're high on this one. I need to get on this one before you take it. And so I'm gonna take Shrek.

[A]

So you're taking Shrek. And with Shrek, Shrek 5 coming out next year, you also get the donkey movie that they have announced with Eddie Murphy.

[B]

I'm less convinced about a donkey movie.

[A]

Oh, really? Oh, I think it's gonna be big.

[B]

I think it'll work. But there is certainly risk with it. The question I have for you because I think it's relevant to this same with sort of like Toy Story and Lilo and some of these other movies is I think there's no question that Shrek 5 is going to be huge. Right. There's just going to be like both young kids who grew up watching them who get to see it in theaters for the first time. There are going to be parents who get to it who grew up on it the first time around who are excited about it. It sort of has perfect cross generational awareness. Is there an appetite to quickly follow up five with more movies and will there be similar interest? Sort of like with Mario, Right. Are you going to see it sustain?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

No.

[A]

They've got a 10 year plan.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

They've got a 10 year plan at DreamWorks and Universal and they've got Chris Meledandri at Illumination helping out. Like the donkey movie announcement was not an accident. This is going to.

[B]

They've got a storyline that's them projecting. We know what we're doing. We are going to. Okay. I'm just glad I'm making you envious. One after another. I got to be doing something right.

[A]

You really are. I mean, it's bad enough that I'm losing this year's draft. Now you've got three. You got Spider Man, Nolan and Shrek.

[B]

I'll be very curious because the next two I want to take in my ranking. I don't know that you're going to go for one of them. I know you're not one of them. You might.

[A]

For number three, I think I'm going to go Batman.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Just because there's safety in Batman. We know he. Even though Matt Reeves is now attached to this, there's going to be in the next 10 years at least two to three Batman movies and they're all going to hit. That's a lot safer to me than I was going to pick Minecraft, to be honest. And yes, I think the next Minecraft movie will be big. But if it sucks, then where does that. Yeah, where do you go yeah. Then maybe it's over. But I think Batman, even if it sucks, you can always reboot Batman and there's always some hot new filmmaker that will come in and have a spin on Batman. Yeah. So I think I'm going to go with that.

[B]

Batman feels it is the most safe of the DC properties. It is not Superman or Supergirl. Basically, none of the movies have failed.

[A]

Oh, God, no. You're not picking Clayface as your next choice.

[B]

I'm not. I actually have something that I think would surprise you, but I. I don't actually know enough about what the plans are for it, so I'm going to go with in a different direction. Minecraft is up there, but I actually have more confidence in Demon Slayer than I do in Minecraft.

[A]

Demon Slayer.

[B]

Demon Slayer. Not. Not K pop. Demon Hunters, which is further down on my list.

[A]

Yeah, we'll get there.

[B]

Yeah. Demon Slayer, for those unfamiliar. I think I picked this in a previous one and you were like, what are you doing?

[A]

I don't sound like that, but okay.

[B]

It is the most popular anime manga franchise right now. If you look at the highest grossing movies of. I believe last year it was top five, I think.

[A]

Yeah, but how many have there been? Haven't there already been, like, four?

[B]

No, they're going to be. There are at least two more coming.

[A]

Okay, but they have done previous Demon Slayer movies. Sure.

[B]

Who cares? They have done. How many previous Batman movies have they made?

[A]

I know, but what's the ceiling on a Demon Slayer movie?

[B]

The last movie made $793 million worldwide.

[A]

Okay, that's good, but not a billion.

[B]

Not a billion. You're correct. It might not be a billion. Batman might have higher potential. I just. We're talking about the future, and I think anime is something with real global appeal that is only getting bigger. And I think it is, especially ex us it is a huge property. And if I'm talking about what I want, I've got Spider man, which is the biggest superhero. I've got Nolan, who's the best director. I've got Shrek, which I think is going to be the next big kids movie. And I've got Demon Slayer, which is sort of like hot international ip. And I'm rolling. That's all I have to say.

[A]

Yeah, you're definitely. Your list is cooler than mine, for sure. Mine's safe and a little older, but. But yeah. So you're essentially betting on anime. Yeah. That's smart.

[B]

I think if I had. If you had to pick one anime franchise, it would be that one not

[A]

Niha or what's the Chinese movie that grows $2 billion?

[B]

Nija Ney Zha. No, I'm not trusting Chinese movies. That is not happening.

[A]

You're not?

[B]

No.

[A]

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[B]

Okay.

[A]

Frozen is massive. We know Frozen 3 and Frozen 4 are coming because they essentially booted Jennifer Lee out of her role running Disney Animation to go and make these movies. They've signed up all the cast, they've got the rights in order. There will be frozen 3, 4, 5, 5. The parks are just starting to get the IP into them and this is going to be that in Moana. I thought about taking Moana even though just had a miss. But Moana 3 is coming. I just think Frozen 3 is further down, further down the road and it will be massive for the next decade.

[B]

This is the first one where I probably overthought It. And you picked the meat and potatoes. Pick. That is the right pick. I think it's because there hasn't been a Frozen movie in a little while.

[A]

And that's good.

[B]

Yes. No, it is good. And I forget. Was there drop off between one and two? No, no.

[A]

Two out grossed one.

[B]

I think Frozen is a safe and great choice. I have no notes.

[A]

And I say this as the father of a young boy who has no interest in Frozen. It's still the biggest property for young girls. That and Moana.

[C]

I know.

[B]

I think Frozen is good. Frozen is.

[A]

Listen, we have not picked any Disney franchise so far. Disney is the franchise company. How is that possible? This is the first Disney franchise we've picked.

[B]

Well, Spider man, technically Disney. I did think about that in that was I really going to take two Sony movies before I took anything else? And so I probably should have thought better of it, knowing that you would not take Demon Slayer in your next film. Four picks. And just.

[A]

I was not gonna pick the player. You could have sat on it.

[B]

I could have just sat on it and taken Frozen.

[A]

You could take Moana right now.

[B]

We could do 50 of these and I would not take Moana.

[A]

No. Oh, you think Moana's over?

[B]

I don't think Moana's over.

[A]

You clearly have not gone trick or treating with a bunch of 7 year olds.

[B]

I don't think Moana's over. But if we're talking about what is the IP that feels fresh that people are going to be excited about in the next 10 years, I just. Moano is not on my list. I think that they really overdid it and they now have to go back to the drawing board. And it's going to be a little while before they can do one of those movies.

[A]

Well, Moana 3 is in the works. So I think by 2829, they'll have a Moana 3. Yeah.

[B]

And it'll probably do fine, but unless it's great, I feel like you're risking diminishing returns with that. I could be wrong.

[A]

And let me guess. You're not picking Dwayne the Rock Johnson as one of your elements that you'd want.

[B]

Dwayne the Rock Johnson is not one of my elements.

[A]

No, I'm not prepared to say that he's box office poison, but he's headed that direction.

[B]

He's not poison, but he's not reliable. I'm going to really roll the dice here.

[A]

So this is your number five pick.

[B]

It's not like Shrek because there's not a movie that is on the calendar, but a franchise that I think was popular, that I trust people to bring back. I think Disney's gonna figure out what to do with X Men.

[A]

You're picking X Men? Yeah.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

Okay. We know they are planted in Avengers, Doomsday. And there are X Men or Mysterious. Maybe X Men movie dates on the calendar.

[B]

I think that there is going to be excitement for or new X Men movies.

[A]

Even after seven, eight previous movies.

[B]

Yeah. But when's the last one?

[A]

The one that came out in Covid. That was terrible. And they dumped.

[B]

I'm not counting that.

[A]

And I guess Deadpool and Wolverine counts because Wolverine's in the X Men.

[B]

Deadpool, Wolverine kind of counts.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

If I'm the Marvel folks and I'm looking at, like, where there are green shoots in that X Men is something that they got from Fox that was very reliable when it was at Fox. And that other than the Deadpool movies, there hasn't really been a good X Men movie in a long time.

[A]

Yeah, it's an appealing property.

[B]

I've always liked those movies, but I'm a believer. I realize I might be out on a ledge here.

[A]

That is a risky pick, but I can support that. All right. My number five pick. I'm going with a person this time.

[B]

I thought about this. I'll be curious who your person is.

[A]

And it's not one of the directors on the Vulture list. I'm going with Michael B. Jordan.

[B]

Damn. That was. I thought about it and I should probably should have done it.

[A]

This guy has done. He's checked every box at this point. He has proven he can open a movie with sinners. He's done IP with Creed and Black Panther. He has started directing. He directed Creed 3, and it has Thomas Crown Affair opening next year. He won a freaking Oscar. And he is consistently underrated when it comes to his lure for audiences. I think if I'm betting on a star for the next 10 years, I'm picking him over Chalamet, over Zendaya, over Leo. Because not only is he a star, he's also a filmmaker. He can direct. So you get all of that as you get with him.

[B]

Yeah. I don't think it's close.

[A]

You think? I mean, I think it is close with Zendaya. If the rumors are true and she's gonna do Bourne movies and she has a more commercial sensibility. She got the drama to over 100 million. That movie does not make 20 million without her.

[B]

I hear you. I just think that he has the track record proven as a Director, producer, actor, and was definitely in my top 10.

[A]

So you support that as well?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I think no, maybe

[A]

not as high as 5. No, no, no, no, no.

[B]

That was. I was honestly debating between him and X Men and I should have done that because you wouldn't have taken X Men.

[A]

No, I wouldn't have.

[B]

Again, I think that he is. Yeah, he is the movie star that you want.

[A]

What is his age?

[B]

He's about to be. He's about to be 40, I think. And also, also, if I get him, I don't care about you having Coogler because they're going to keep collaborating and so I get a piece of that.

[A]

He'll be 40 in February, so he and Coogler. I know I have Coogler as well, so I guess I'm doubling up on their movies they make together. But that's okay.

[B]

That's a good thing.

[A]

I can count him twice.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

All right, so we are now at 5 and 5. We are going to take a break and end this episode and come back tomorrow for part two of the blockbuster. What are we calling this?

[B]

The future blockbuster draft.

[A]

The future blockbuster draft, yes. Okay, we are back with the call sheet. Craig is here. He's back from his medical tourism. The nose looks great. The forehead looks amazing.

[C]

Thank you. I asked. I said give me the Anne Hathaway.

[A]

You got it. It's tasteful.

[C]

Thank you.

[A]

Most important, it's tasteful.

[C]

Yeah. Looks natural.

[A]

You could credibly play a warrior in BC Times. All right, so big news while you were gone. Paramount has delayed the WarnerMount merger, the acquisition of Warner Brothers discovery until at least June of next year or when there is a resolution on the antitrust claims. This was the result of a gigantic negotiation between Paramount and California and the states that are suing. They essentially made the determination to that they were going to lose the battle for the preliminary injunction in this case, which would have put a pause on the deal anyways. And they felt that this judge was leaning towards not even allowing them to produce evidence at this trial, at this little mini trial for the preliminary injunction. So they agreed to keep the delay intact and they will have a trial on the merits sometimes later this year maybe or early next year. Paramount wants November. The states want in 2027. And that's when they will get to fully litigate the case.

[C]

Because there was a 28 day restraining order granted at a pause.

[A]

It was a temporary restraining order. Yes.

[C]

And so Paramount said, actually we're nervous about losing that. So we actually would like more time to prepare a better argument so that we can potentially win long term.

[A]

It wasn't even that. It was that there's a second issue with the preliminary injunction. The temporary restraining order just pauses it temporarily. The preliminary injunction would have paused the litigation through the entirety of the case until the end. And that could have been disastrous. If they lost it now, they would have appealed and they would have gotten up to the 9th Circuit potentially even higher, but they wouldn't have been able potentially to submit evidence and depose people and have all these. This factual stuff that they believe is strong for their case. That's up to the judge and whether to allow that. And she refused to say whether she was going to allow that kind of evidence. So they basically threw up their hands and said, we'd rather just go to a mini trial. You know, both sides are spinning this as being good for them. It's a setback for Paramount. They wanted this deal to close. They thought that they could ram this through with the Trump administration. The other bodies around the world have all signed off on this, and they did not expect the political blowback to be this much where the states would get involved. These are all blue states. So, yes, it is politically motivated. I don't think the. The Ellison side has. Has any recourse here because they created the political situation. They went all in on Donald Trump and. And then, predictably, the Democrats fought back and the only way that they knew how, which was via the blue state attorneys general. But this is a setback and now we'll have to wait to see whether this deal is going to happen until the outcome of this trial.

[C]

So Paramount wants a November trial. Bond has said he wants a January start date. Is that a midterms election thing? Like, what's the reasoning behind that?

[A]

They just feel that the sooner the better on Paramount side, and they want to be able to prepare the case and depose all of the witnesses and get and gather all the evidence. And that was sort of the problem with the preliminary injunction hearing is that it was gonna happen so soon that they weren't gonna be able to do any of this fact finding. And by the way, Bata hasn't said January. He just said sometime in 2027. So he's holding out for as long in the future as possible because it gives him leverage. Because remember, there's this $650 million a quarter ticking fee that Paramount has to pay to Warner Brothers and to. As this thing drags on.

[C]

So how. Let's say, like I believe the Journal said that he. He Favors a January date. Bonta. But. So how many 650 million fees would they incur by January? Is it 1 or 2?

[A]

It's, it's, it's a quarter. So it starts October 1st. So the fourth quarter is October through January. So that's 650 million there. If it goes into the first quarter of 2027, that's another 650. And I mean, this is a complete disaster if this gets blocked because they would then owe $7 billion to Warner Discovery for a breakup fee and they

[C]

already gave 2 billion to Netflix 2.8.

[A]

So, yeah, that would be very costly. Listen, some people think that the Ellison will walk away from this. Yeah, I don't believe they will.

[C]

Okay, I was going to ask you because you, you from the beginning thought Paramount was going to win, was going to get Warner Brothers. Even when Netflix was, was in the mix. Do you still believe that it will close and Paramount will get Warner Brothers?

[A]

I'm not prepared to say with, with definitive certainty that they are going to win on the merits of this case. What I can say is that they will not back down. That I don't believe the Ellisons are just going to say, you know what, the regulatory hurdles here are not what we expected. We're going to be fine with Paramount. Go, go with God. You know, sell to Netflix, sell to whoever you want. That's not, that's not their M.O. here. They are going to go, go, go until the Supreme Court either decides in their favor, tells them to get lost, or declines to take the case.

[C]

Do you believe some people think that, you know, the 100 plus billion dollars that they're going to invest to make this merger, that if Paramount just spent that a fraction of that money on just improving Paramount and their app and their, and their movies, that they could be a competitor that they claim they need Warner Brothers to be. Do you believe in that? Or is the IP that they're getting from Warner Brothers that important?

[A]

Maybe that's essentially the Netflix argument. That's what Netflix does, is they spend, spend, spend to be competitive. They had the first mover advantage. And now look at what Netflix is trying to do. They've been looking at buying a studio because they have recognized that they need the IP of a studio. So I don't know if that argument holds water. I think it would be a great Harvard Business School study someday. Can you build a competitor with 100 billion rather than buying one? But they've decided they want to buy one. They have this money all lined up to do so. You know, we got to watch the Oracle stock, too. If the Oracle stock keeps tanking, that puts Larry Ellison's involvement here in a little bit more of a pickle because he, you know, he's still the 10th richest man in the world or whatever he is today. So I don't think that the money is going away, but it becomes a much bigger bite at his fortune if his stock is not doing well.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So a lot to process here. We're going to be talking about this for months.

[C]

And while this is in limbo, Paramount, Warner Brothers can't make any major moves. They kind of just have to wait, which hurts them. Right.

[A]

They, they say it's business as usual, but I agree it's in limbo. They're not. You know, listen, Warner Discovery sued Amazon on Friday for poaching a marketing executive. And they did that to send a message to all the other employees that are just sitting there and at Warner Discovery saying, guys, what's going on here? I'm getting offers from other companies. I might be under contract, but I don't want to sit around for two years while you litigate the deal. I want to, you know, build my career. And they're basically, that was a warning shot to them saying, don't you dare, we will sue. So I don't know, bad situation here all around, but a victory for the anti merger people and a setback for Paramount. But ultimately it's all going to come down to what this judge decides on the merits of the case and what the Ninth Circuit does on appeal. Unless there's a settlement. There could be a settlement tomorrow, but it doesn't sound like Rob Bonta is in the settling mood right now.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, our editors Jesse Lopez and Stephano Sanchez. And I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time.