The Hollywood Stock Market: The Rock, Louis C.K., Kevin Feige, Sora 2, and More!

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: The Hollywood Stock Market: The Rock, Louis C.K., Kevin Feige, Sora 2, and More!
Date: October 13, 2025
Host: Matt Belloni
Main Guest: Lucas Shaw

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Episode Overview

This live episode from the Ringer and Puck's Screen Time event in Los Angeles features host Matt Belloni and media reporter Lucas Shaw conducting their annual “Hollywood Stock Market.” In this interactive format, the hosts "buy" and "sell" shares in people, companies, and trends shaping the film and entertainment industry. Their choices are based on who and what they believe has upside potential or is poised for decline in the near future—not personal endorsements but a snapshot of Hollywood’s business climate and cultural currents.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Hollywood Stock Market: The Game Plan

• Each host selects trends, companies, or personalities to “buy” or “sell,” aiming to spot future winners and avoid those due for a downturn
• Picks are explained with industry insight, often diving into nuanced, sometimes contrarian perspectives about business prospects

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2. Sells: Trends, Companies, and Talents Losing Momentum

a) The AI Freakout (SORA)

• Host: Unidentified co-host/guest (presumed Matt Belloni)
  • Selling the industry "freakout" over AI video tools like SORA
  • Warns against “overstating AI’s immediate impact,” predicting it’ll be a tool, not a wholesale replacement for creative talent
  • Quote: "The notion that you are suddenly going to have a lot of movies wholly written by, starring, or directed by artificial intelligence is utter horseshit." (04:54)

b) Comcast

• Host: Lucas Shaw
  • Selling Comcast due to declining broadband/video business, lackluster Peacock growth, and strategic uncertainty
  • Quote: "Of all the big media companies that you’re looking at right now, tell me what the Comcast strategy is. And I don’t totally know." (08:09)

c) Microdramas / Mini Dramas

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Skeptical that mini dramas (“microdramas”) receiving buzz will be the next big thing
  • Points out coverage is more hype than reality, referencing trend pieces that lack real consumer evidence
  • Quote: "I would challenge any of those authors to tell me, do they know someone who has actually watched one or consistently?" (16:27)

d) Glenn Powell

• Lucas Shaw: Selling on the actor despite his recent successes, questioning his potential to become a true superstar.
  • Concerned upcoming projects lack breakout potential and are from directors “that have had their day” (Ron Howard, Judd Apatow)
  • Quote: "We all want Glenn Powell to be Tom Cruise. I just don’t think he’s Tom Cruise now." (19:11)

e) TikTok Sale

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Selling the "TikTok sale" narrative, calling it a political charade that won’t meaningfully transfer power away from Chinese interests
  • Quote: "I think it will be sold, but it’s not a real sale. You’re buying a US asset of an entity that is still fundamentally controlled by a Chinese company." (25:14)

f) Sports Streaming

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Selling ESPN and Fox’s new standalone sports streaming services, doubting their value or audience at a $40 price point
  • Quote: "I have yet to find anyone who can explain who these services are for and who would pay like $40 for some of the sports." (29:12)

g) Kevin Feige / Marvel

• Lucas Shaw: Selling Marvel’s top producer, citing a massive slowdown in Marvel’s film slate and declining box office expectations.
  • Quote: “If you look at the retraction or retrenchment in Marvel over the next couple years...this is a studio that had three or four movies consistently for a decade. One next year, one in 27, and after that, not a lot dated.” (30:01)

h) Millie Bobby Brown

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Selling, calling her “star on Netflix, nowhere else.” (31:25)

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3. Buys: People, Companies, and Trends with Upside

a) Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Buying even as his latest film flopped; his star power and franchise reliability are seen as long-term assets.
  • Quote: "He is undeniably a star with a big following and I’m really not worried about his long-term career prospects." (09:22)
  • Lucas (on his prospects): "He’s Arnold Schwarzenegger...stick to what he does well." (11:14)

b) Josh D’Amaro (Disney Parks)

• Lucas Shaw: Buying Disney executive for his bold pricing strategies; sees price hikes as corporate strength despite public complaints.
  • Quote: “He knows the pricing power that they have...He’s basically saying to these Disney adults and Disney fans, what are you gonna do? You’re gonna pay it.” (13:12)

c) Scripted Content on YouTube

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Buying the long-term potential for scripted entertainment to break out on YouTube and social platforms, even if microdramas are a media fad.
  • Quote: “Scripted programming on YouTube, scripted programming on TikTok, platforms with a real following will take off.” (16:45)

d) Ed Sheeran

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Buying his value as a touring artist, even as his pop recording career fades—comparing him to Coldplay and Beyoncé’s established, legacy stardom.
  • Quote: "He will be one of the biggest touring artists for the next 20 years." (21:47)

e) Louis C.K.

• Lucas Shaw: Buys the comedian/canceled star as an industry player making a comeback behind the scenes.
  • Points to successful tours and renewed interest from streamers as a creator
  • Quote: “He was on Bill Maher last week and nobody cared. Nobody was up in arms. I have heard that several streaming TV outlets have been discussing whether he could be brought back not as a star, but as a creative force behind a new show.” (23:57)

f) Theatrical Stunts (Releases & Event Programming)

• Lucas Shaw: Buys putting unique or nostalgic content in theaters (e.g., Taylor Swift or Hamilton event films, kids’ movies re-released during dry periods), seeing opportunity in a leaner theatrical market.
  • Quote: “Put a movie in theaters that nobody has heard of or that came out 20 years ago...that, to me, is where we are going in the theatrical business...” (26:24)

g) Hip Hop

• Unidentified Co-host/guest: Buys hip hop’s enduring cultural importance despite current soft metrics in touring and streaming.
  • Quote: "It’s still the most important music in the culture...It’s going to be fine long term." (28:48)

h) Games on Netflix

• Lucas Shaw and guest: Ambivalent but leaning toward buying for long-term potential, despite short-term uncertainty and lack of a breakout hit yet
  • Quote: "Short term, selling; long term, I’m buying." (31:57)

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4. Quick Hits: Buy/Sell Lightning Round

• Taylor Swift: Too dangerous to sell; hosts want no part of Swift backlash (31:02)
• Mike & Pam (Warner Bros. film heads): Buying—appreciation for the slate’s diversity, though concerns for the upcoming year remain (31:09)
• Riyadh Comedy Festival: Will return bigger, but debate over reputational risk vs. promotional value (31:31)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI hype:
  "The notion that you are suddenly going to have a lot of movies wholly written by, starring, or directed by artificial intelligence is utter horseshit." – Unidentified guest, (04:54)

• On Dwayne Johnson's Oscar appeal:
  "He’s just, like, plotting this in as one of his stops on the Dwayne Johnson road to infinite fame." – Lucas Shaw, (10:56)

• On Disney park pricing:
  "He knows the pricing power that they have...what are you gonna do? You’re gonna pay it?" – Lucas Shaw, (13:12)

• On Hollywood microdrama hype:
  "I would challenge any of those authors to tell me, do they know someone who has actually watched one or consistently?" – Unidentified co-host, (16:27)

• On Ed Sheeran’s phase change:
  "He will be one of the biggest touring artists for the next 20 years." – Unidentified co-host, (21:47)

• On Louis C.K.’s comeback:
  "He was on Bill Maher last week and nobody cared. Nobody was up in arms." – Lucas Shaw, (23:57)

• On TikTok’s US sale:
  "I think the whole thing is bullshit...it’s a total charade." – Unidentified co-host, (25:14)

• On Marvel’s decline:
  "This is a studio that had three or four movies consistently for a decade. One next year, one in ’27, and after that, not a lot dated." – Lucas Shaw, (30:01)

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Useful Timestamps

• 04:14 — AI panic/SORA and the real impact on filmmaking
• 08:09 — Comcast’s strategic predicament and business model woes
• 09:01 — Dwayne Johnson’s star power analyzed post-box office flop
• 13:12 — Disney park pricing and Josh D’Amaro’s bold moves
• 16:27 — Critique of the microdrama hype cycle
• 19:11 — Glenn Powell’s ceiling as a Hollywood lead
• 23:57 — Louis C.K. discussion: “cancelled” to comeback
• 25:14 — The “fake” TikTok sale
• 26:24 — Opportunity in event-style theatrical exhibition
• 28:48 — Hip hop’s staying power despite recent commercial softening
• 29:12 — Sports streaming’s uncertain future
• 30:01 — Marvel retrenchment and Kevin Feige’s crossroads
• 31:02 — Taylor Swift and lightning round buy/sell

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Final Thoughts

This rapid-fire live episode, laced with industry-insider banter and a touch of cynicism, surfaces key debates animating Hollywood: the real vs. hyped promises of AI, the changing contours of stardom, the state of legacy brands (Marvel, Disney, Comcast), and the ongoing disruption in music, streaming, and the event economy. Lucas Shaw and Matt Belloni’s stock market conceit serves as an engaging framework to explore where money, attention, and cultural cachet may flow next.

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Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm a founding partner Puck and I.

[Matt Bellany]

Write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and.

[Lucas Shaw]

Analysis of the biggest stories.

[Matt Bellany]

Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people.

[Lucas Shaw]

Fans of the Town get a discount.

[Matt Bellany]

On the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member Today this episode of the Town is presented by FX's the Lowdown. Proclaimed a gloriously off kilter noir by Rolling Stone. The series follows Lee Raybon, a citizen, journalist and self proclaimed truthsorian as he exposes corruption and unearths the cities hidden rot from acclaimed Reservation Dogs creator Sterlin Harjo and starring four time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawke. TV Guide raves the Lowdown is easily one of the best new shows of the year. The Lowdown premieres September 23rd on FX, streaming next day on Hulu. This episode is brought to you by FX's alien Earth. Set in the year 2120, the planet's greatest threat is discovered after a mysterious space vessel crash lands on Earth. Hailed as a dizzyingly haunting epic by the Wrap, the series stars Sidney Chandler, Timothy Olyphant and Babu Sise. FX's Alien Earth is now streaming on Hulu. RogerEbert.com declares that the series from Noah Hawley shatters already high expectations with standout performances. FX's alien Earth is now streaming on Hulu. It is Monday, October 13th. Today it's a live show. Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy, he hosted his Bloomberg Squad Screen Time event last week here in la. Really great guests, very delicious tacos, ice cream. Thank you to the listeners who came up and said hello. Very nice. Once again we did our Hollywood Stock Exchange episode. Lucas and I picked some buys and some sells. These could be people, companies, trends. The goal is to of course buy things with upside either at a low point for them or with tons of room to grow or sell at either a high point or when something is about to fall even further. It was a great time. Some surprising choices I think so Today it's the Hollywood Stock Exchange 2025 live from screen Time from the ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town.

[Lucas Shaw]

This is great. Thanks Everyone for coming. I was so all excited that we got moved to the big room this year. And then I realized that they just eliminated the small room and.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But you're the only thing from the small room to make it that I survived.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, I'll take that. It's the small wins here.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

You beat Shade. Everything else lost to Shade.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, great. Yes. No, the big, big improvements this year. Shade. The food is amazing. And of course, this guy. Little applause for Lucas. This is a. This is really the marquee event. This is like. This is like ESSENCE Fest for corporate communications executives.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

They're all here. I thought you were going to miss them. I thought you were going to get canceled later. You're already trying to get canceled.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'll be canceled.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

All right.

[Lucas Shaw]

So what we are doing is something that we have made a tradition for this live episode, which is the town's Hollywood stock market. We are going to pick a couple things to buy, a couple things to sell. The goal being you buy low. The goal being you sell high. These are not personal endorsements of these entities or people. We are simply evaluating them on their business prospects. Is that a good disclaimer? Yes.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

At least one of mine is not so much the business prospects, but more sort of a vibe. But, yes, I'm with it.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, so why don't we start and I'll give you the first pick. Do you want to start with a buy or do you want to start with a sell?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm going to start with a sell because I feel like I've enjoyed my sells more.

[Lucas Shaw]

Why is it John Krasinski and why do you hate him?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm trying to avoid the personal attacks this year.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm not.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Not going to blindside people. Mine is. I'm a worry that. Mine's going to require a lot of explanation. Okay, but my first sell high is basically the AI freakout.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, clarify, clarify.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

We spent the last week or two with everyone convinced that SORA is about to replace filmmaking as we know it. I think we spent a lot of the last couple years.

[Lucas Shaw]

You can say me. You can highlight me in particular for the AI video.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Something, too, that I think I will look back on, perhaps not so fondly.

[Lucas Shaw]

So you think these agencies are going overboard, putting out statements saying, we disavow sora, we're opting out our clients.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think concerns about copyright violation and Hollywood sort of once again missing out on a lot of value creation in a new technology are very real. So I just want to be clear about that. I think the notion that you are suddenly going to have a lot of movies wholly written by, starring, or directed by artificial intelligence is utter horseshit.

[Lucas Shaw]

You do?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yes.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, but how long? Forever or five years, 10 years?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm not a technologist, but I think looking into the future, it is more likely that it creates a bunch of tools that get used. But you're not suddenly going to replace Timothee Chalamet with AI Timothee Chalamet. But Timothee Chalamet. Maybe instead of having to be on set for two months and then also go back for reshoots and also doing a bunch of other voiceover stuff, that stuff is what gets. That gets stripped out, but the main actor is still required.

[Lucas Shaw]

Interesting. Would you give your photo to Sora or the photo of your. You don't have a child, but if you did have a child, would you let your kid put their photo on Sora?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm sure that Sora already has my.

[Lucas Shaw]

Photo, but they are saying for now that they won't use it until you opt in. And you mean would I opt out.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Of it being there?

[Lucas Shaw]

No, you have to opt in for your photo to be used as to create an avatar.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Well, I'm not a celebrity, so.

[Lucas Shaw]

In this room, you are. Everybody's a celebrity in their own world.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Now, I guess if given the choice, I would rather not be a part of it.

[Lucas Shaw]

You wouldn't want to see an AI Lucas Shaw reading the Wall Street Journal in a video.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I mean, look, a lot of respect for the Wall Street Journal. There are much worse things. Even if they're a competitor, there are much worse things that some random person could make me do.

[Lucas Shaw]

Cheering for the Yankees or whatever. You understand what I'm saying?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I definitely don't need me cheering for.

[Lucas Shaw]

The Yankees, but I would make that video and I would send it to you.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I have a lot of friends who would. You know, I once at an event like 10, 12 years ago, at this point, I interviewed Shaq and he gave me a noogie and a friend made a gif of him giving me a noogie. That if someone could. Because I think that sort of lost to time. If someone wants to bring that back, I'm all for it.

[Lucas Shaw]

But in the AI version, he could give. He could body slam you. He could throw you around the room. He could do all sorts of things to you.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Sure.

[Lucas Shaw]

All right, we're going to move on.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Are you going to start with a buyer?

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm going to do a sell. I'll do a sell as well. I'm going to sell Comcast.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Okay. Why does it count as selling high if their stock, you give me down.

[Lucas Shaw]

Like I know they are, the stock is down 25% this year. But I think this is a very challenged company. The whole prospect of a broadband based company and where things are going right now, the declines in mobile subscribers, the declines in video peacock not being scaled. They don't really. They could be the odd man out when it comes to Warner's and Paramount. Where does that leave them? I just, you know, the Versant stuff is a big question mark whether that's going to work or not. I just, I feel like of all the big media companies that you're looking at right now, tell me what the Comcast strategy is. And I don't totally know.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Interesting. I guess it's funny that you say that because for the last several years people would have said, well, they're one of the only stable ones because entertainment doesn't matter to them, matters less.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but that was when the broadband business was a bigger business.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

There is, there's way more competition in connectivity than ever before because of, of the phone companies.

[Lucas Shaw]

I mean, would you want to be a Comcast shareholder right now? Like, not great. No offense to people that are.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I don't know that I. Well, setting aside the fact that I am ethically prohibited from owning any of this stuff, I don't know that I would be itching, like if you told me you can invest in five companies, they wouldn't be on that list, but I would be more comfortable having stock in them than some of the other media companies would.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Oh, interesting. We don't have to go through the list, but. All right, give me your first buy.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I will buy Dwayne Johnson.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, really interesting.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

He just had a movie that did not open at all. Smashing Machine.

[Lucas Shaw]

Even though he cried at Venice and he was pigeonholed for so many years and could not make the kind of movie that he just made.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

The public stuff, kind of annoying.

[Lucas Shaw]

But even though he produced all those.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Really bad blockbuster movies, he is undeniably a star with a big following and I'm really not worried about his long term career prospects. I think what you have to remember with any actor or actress these days is there is pretty much no one who can open a movie or who can open any movie. Right. We just thought, okay, people have gone crazy over the PTA movie. That's one of the worst openings of Leonardo DiCaprio's career. Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

He might, he might have taken them. Said that.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

No, they said that it would leg it out. In the long term.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. The ultimates, maybe the 30 year waterfall.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

They, you know, he maybe took that movie from 5 million to 20 million. But there's a limit. And I think with any actor, there's a limit. That was not a movie that people were going to pay to see Dwayne Johnson in. But does that mean that when he's in the next Jumanji movie, he's got.

[Lucas Shaw]

Jumanji, he's got Moana. Next summer, he'll be fine.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't know that I would buy his Oscar chances right now. I think that has.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Well, if we were doing Oscar chances, I would have made some different selections. But we're talking about.

[Lucas Shaw]

And you know, he'll strong arm a 24 into spending three or four million dollars to, like, pretend that they think he's an Oscar contender. And when he doesn't get it, they'll call and say, I can't believe you didn't get it.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Do you think that he's someone who can have that Oscar moment in, like, 15 years?

[Lucas Shaw]

I mean, anybody can. Anybody can reinvent themselves. I think the lift here for him was much harder. He's been so famous for so long doing a particular kind of thing that he. It's not a Brendan Fraser situation or a John Travolta situation where they sort of went away and then reemerged as this different kind of actor.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Sure.

[Lucas Shaw]

He's just, like, plotting this in as one of his stops on the Dwayne Johnson road to infinite fame. Right. Like, he's like, oh, I could be a serious actor now. This is a role that I could actually do. Well, he tried it kind of with pain and gain and didn't work there either. So I don't. I just.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

An underrated Michael Bay movie.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Okay. But, you know, I mean, he's Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold, like, tried to do more serious movies. Never tried to do the Oscar movie for a reason. I just don't stick to.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Stick to what he does well.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, exactly. And he had a long career. All right, so my first buy. And this is not someone who is particularly low, but it's someone that I think has the long trajectory and it's based on stuff you and I did.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

You just say, this is someone who's not necessarily low.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So you sold a company whose stock is down here, and you're buying someone who's not actually low. I just. Okay, got it. Upside, I'll stop.

[Lucas Shaw]

To be a successful market player, you don't have to always buy the worst. You can buy something that has upside down.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

You're buying a dip. Okay.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I think that Josh tomorrow is a buy. I think you gotta buy.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Sorry, the guy who everybody says is gonna be the next.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, no, no. Okay. Everybody says that. Not everybody. By the way, I hate to break the Jimmy Kimmel. I don't think.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Are you really just trying to use this to curry favor with the next CEO of Disney?

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, God, please, no, no. If that were the case, I would not be telling you why I'm picking him. What happened this week to me is the ultimate. I wanna be CEO. What has everyone been complaining about for the past year? The prices at the parks. And what does he do? Screw you. We're raising him again. The price hike at the parks this week is outrageous. The fact that they can just be like, you know what? Everyone's complaining. These videos are appearing on social media about how Disney World is empty. Screw you, we're going to. And that is aimed at the bottom line that he knows is going to push him over the top with the board. They want someone who is not afraid to enrage their customer base. And I think it's as simple as that. Like, if he's willing to do that and he knows the pricing power that they have, what are you gonna do? He's basically saying to these Disney adults and Disney fans, what are you gonna do? You're gonna pay it?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah. You're gonna pay. I'm not gonna pay.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'll pay. I have a nine year old kid. Of course I'm gonna pay. But that's the business they're in. And it's like. And it comes down.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Do you think there is a point at which, because you're closer to this because you have a kid, is there a price at which it really becomes an issue?

[Lucas Shaw]

Great question. I think that New York Times story that you cited on the show a couple weeks ago was not great for them. A whole story about how Disney is contributing to the stratification of America. There is now two Americas. One for rich people, one for not rich people. Disney, if they don't watch themselves, they will become the poster for that conversation. And there is a point, I don't know where it is. I'm not an expert on this. I think Disney clearly says they are far away from having reached that. I mean, I interviewed Bob Iger, this is almost seven, eight years ago, and he said we could double the prices if we wanted to.

[Matt Bellany]

At this point.

[Lucas Shaw]

They sort of already have, but inflation's kept up. And he said we could double the prices and make more money. We choose not to do that because we see Disney as an accessible brand. And the question is how long it's going to be an accessible brand.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

And when it costs $300 a person to get a Park hopper in Anaheim for the day, like.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Well, it was also the debate that they had about Disney, which was they chose to come in and underprice it to sign up as many people as possible. There were people who felt, though, that they are a premium product. They are not trying to appeal to everyone. And so if you're going to. If you're not appealing to as many people as Netflix, but you know that the people who love your service will pay a premium for it, you should have the highest price in the market. And they're sort of belatedly trying to figure that out.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's a scaled version of what's going on with Taylor Swift where she's extracting the most money possible from her super fans via all of these.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Is this your way of saying that you're selling high on Taylor or not?

[Lucas Shaw]

I do not want them coming for me. I already. Yeah, but. But it's exactly that.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

They.

[Lucas Shaw]

They are all of these things. It happens with Donald Trump. Donald Trump is charging his fans to buy his bitcoin and buy his stakes and products and stuff because he knows.

[Matt Bellany]

There'S a super fan that's going to do it.

[Lucas Shaw]

And Disney knows that there's a Superman for Disney products that they can get pricing power over. So.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So we're going to give out Trump Gold at the next live town.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yes. All right, so give me your next sell.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm going to. Can I do that? My next one is a combo. Sure.

[Lucas Shaw]

Event, man.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm selling. I'm selling mini dramas and buying.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, dude, I have that.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

And buying scripted on YouTube.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, you are. Okay. I have this as a sell. Micro dramas. Yeah.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think this is one of these media manufactured narratives where there is an audience for it. I'm not dismissing that.

[Lucas Shaw]

But it's mostly Chinese women watching. Kind of racist.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

It's like softcore porn.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yes.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

And what happens is that there is a bit of an audience for it. And you have these and it something. They may be popular in parts of East Asia. And then there are like some people who watch it here and then some people start writing about it, including Bloomberg. We've done stories on it. And then every media outlet under the sun, like, thinks this is a cool trend story to do. And so you end up having 20 trend stories on the rise of the microdrama. And yet I would challenge any of those authors to tell me, do they know someone who has actually watched one or consistently?

[Lucas Shaw]

Personal anecdote.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But if you asked across 20 reporters and none of them had someone in their lives who even watched them, it's.

[Lucas Shaw]

Like people who are interested in Tron Aries.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But I. Cause I do.

[Lucas Shaw]

No disrespect, I would.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Normally put you in that demographic.

[Lucas Shaw]

I am not interested in Tron Aries.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I do think there will be scripted programming. There is scripted programming on kind of social channels or in shorter form that will pop. Like we have Kanigra Dion speaking here. She's one of the people on YouTube. Eventually, scripted programming on YouTube, scripted programming on TikTok platforms with a real following will take off. But these are sort of like second third tier services.

[Lucas Shaw]

You don't think there will be a house of cards of microdramas? No, no.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

It seems like you agree.

[Lucas Shaw]

I agree. Yeah. We don't have to debate that.

[Matt Bellany]

This episode is brought to you by Universal Pictures. One of cinema's most terrifying masked killers is back just in time for Halloween. Black Phone 2 hits theaters October 17th. Ethan Hawke returns as the Grabber and Mason Thames as Finney. And this time, vengeance isn't going to let death stand in its way. Spine chilling and heart pounding, Scott Derrickson's anticipated sequel asks, do you know what happens when you die? Black Phone 2, only in theaters October 17th. This episode is brought to you by AMC. Anne Rice's Immortal universe expands with the gritty spy thriller the Secret Order. Guy is recruited by an otherworldly organization called the Talamasca to help solve a murder. Discover the shadowy powers that protect us from what we cannot see. Catch the two episode premiere of the Secret Order October 26th on AMC. Start your free trial now.

[Lucas Shaw]

Let's go to my second cell.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Okay.

[Lucas Shaw]

And this one going to be controversial, but it's not because I don't like this guy. Very nice guy, I think.

[Matt Bellany]

Seems talented.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So this is not a John Krasinski situation.

[Lucas Shaw]

It is not. It is. Glenn Powell.

[Matt Bellany]

Ooh, I'm selling Glenn Powell.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Someone earlier today suggested I should. Why are you selling?

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, so he had his moment. He's high off of Twisters, off of anyone but you, off of Top Gun. Chad Powers. Not good reviews. We've not seen the ratings on it. Maybe it's huge. I kind of doubt it's huge. He's got a couple movies coming. He has an A24 movie with Margaret Qualley, which is a smaller movie. It's like a Revenge thriller. Then his next two movies are starring vehicles with Judd Apatow directing and ron Howard directing.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

2.

[Lucas Shaw]

Two filmmakers that have had their day.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Very talented, haven't had a hit in a while.

[Lucas Shaw]

Haven't had a hit in a while. And in fact have had like pretty famous flops and have had trouble even getting movies made.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

In Ron's case certainly. Well, not made, sold in his case.

[Lucas Shaw]

No. And Apatow shopped his Cancel Culture movie and nobody bought it. So. And the movie before that that he did was the Bubble. Did you see that during COVID It was, ooh, it was tough. So I'm just saying, like we all want Glenn Powell to be Tom Cruise. I just don't think he's Tom Cruise now.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Do you feel like he's just going to hit a rough patch or that his.

[Lucas Shaw]

He'll always work. But I'm not.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

He's not going to be a big star. You would not. He's. Michael B. Jordan is a star. Timothee Chalamet is a star. He's not going to join that front.

[Lucas Shaw]

And he is often discussed in that same group and he's not in that group. So sorry, should I.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So I did debate. I decided.

[Lucas Shaw]

Very nice guy.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I did debate also selling high on Sydney Sweeney. Where do you land on that? I didn't, I didn't commit to it. But where do you.

[Lucas Shaw]

This is a Scooter Braun thing.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

No, I know you hate Scooter.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't hate him. I just think he's a fraud. But so, so, so can we talk?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Can we like just take a moment on Sydney Sweeney, since they're linked.

[Lucas Shaw]

What would you like to talk about with respect to Sydney Sweeney?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I was asked, what do you think of the note? You're a long term buyer.

[Matt Bellany]

My problem with her choices so far.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

High volume, limited high volume.

[Lucas Shaw]

It seems like her team, her representatives are trying to cash out before she ultimately goes to one of the big agencies. She's at Paradigm and no disrespect, if this is coming from her, I don't have any reporting on this. Maybe she's saying, I want to do this, this, this, this. But sometimes when you have a star that goes from nothing to someone who matters, the representatives that you had when you were nothing, try to just book, book, book, book because they know that the big agencies are going to come calling and you won't have that client forever. So it seems like that's. She's producing everything. She's.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I just worry about over overexposure.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. And although apparently this. The boxing movie is good. Christie. Yeah. So, you know, maybe. Maybe she's got it in Euphoria. She'll get a big hit off Euphoria when that comes back. Right.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So we'll circle the wagon.

[Lucas Shaw]

I was not prepared to list her in any way here, but I had.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Her with a question mark at the bottom.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, so give me a buy.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think it. I think I'm on for. No. Okay, I'll do a buy instead of a sell. I'm gonna buy Ed Sheeran.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, okay. Even though. So he's already one of the biggest stars in the world. Yes, Mr. Criticizing me for picking people at their height.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But if you follow music sales, his most recent album tanked. He released a new album in September.

[Lucas Shaw]

You probably didn't even know that.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Correct. So that is a problem for someone who's.

[Lucas Shaw]

Although, isn't he still one of the biggest touring artists?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So this is why I'm buying. I think Ed Sheeran is entering the phase of his career kind of like Coldplay, where he does not matter as a recording artist. Like, not a pop star. The albums aren't going to sell, but he will be one of the biggest touring artists for the next 20 years.

[Lucas Shaw]

You think he's done as a pop star? He seems like the guy generates his own material.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think new. No, no, no.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think seems like a guy who will have a big. Another big song.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

He's entered a new phase of his career. He will have, like, this could get me canceled. But, like, I created this thing with. With some colleagues at Bloomberg a few years ago called the pop star power rankings, where I wanted to, like, does that still exist? Stuff still exists. And one of the reasons I wanted to do it was at the time, I wanted to have an argument with people to explain why Ed Sheeran was a bigger pop star than Beyonce. Because at the time, Ed Sheeran.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, God, how dare you?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Ed Sheeran had both the bestselling music and was a huge touring act, whereas Beyonce had entered a phase of her career where she was undeniably one of the biggest stars in the world. She could sell out any venue anywhere. But she was not releasing songs that really penetrated culture and topped the charts. Now, she has since had a couple songs that did that. She reinvented her sound, and that may be what happened to Ed Sheeran, who happens to Ed Sheeran, who's undeniably talented. He may have big hits in his future.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think that's.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But he's had two or three albums in a row now that have just Come and gone. And I don't think anyone in this room could name a song.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, moving on to the next buy for me, this one will definitely get me canceled. So I'm going to preface this by saying this has nothing to do with my own personal feelings about this person. I'm buying Louis C.K. oK, explain Louis C.K. who has been famously canceled and for very good reasons. He is kind of back. If you look at what he's been doing, he's been touring very successfully. He was on Bill Maher last week and nobody cared. Nobody was up in arms. I have heard that several streaming TV outlets have been discussing whether he could be brought back not as a star, but. But as a creative force behind a new show. Not on camera, but as someone who could get another show. And I think that could happen in the next year or two.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Okay, Drop a little news.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, no, no. That's not news. That's buzz around town. Yeah, there's nothing in the works, as far as I know. But I would not be surprised. He released like, some novel that he wrote. And yes, these are all things that don't require the participation of a major media company. He can tour and have his website and he does the tours where he.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Makes everyone put the phones away and they're not exactly.

[Lucas Shaw]

So he's making plenty of money that way. And. And this is not a judgment of.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Have you gone to see him?

[Lucas Shaw]

I have not. I'm not a Louis CK Fan. I wasn't even before. But if you talk to comedy people.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Oh, he was. He was the number one. Everybody, everyone said he was every comedian's favorite comedian. Yes.

[Lucas Shaw]

And I think a lot of comedy executives favorite comedian. So if there is a way to bring him back in a way that won't get the outlet canceled or criticized, they will do it right.

[Matt Bellany]

Well.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Or you get some criticism. But it's in a weird way, nothing matters these days. It generates attention for it. In a good way.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yes, exactly. Okay, all right, let's move on. Do not want to talk about that anymore. Give me a sell.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I am selling the TikTok sale.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, so that's. That's a double negative. So you think TikTok will be sold? I think the whole.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

No, I think the whole thing is bullshit.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, really?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think it will be sold, but it's not a real sale. You're buying a US Asset of an entity that is still fundamentally controlled by a Chinese company.

[Lucas Shaw]

And is that why the price is so low?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

$14 billion part of it. And it's just a total charade that you had Congress decide whether you agreed with the decision or not. They said this thing should either be shut down or sold. And then Trump did not want to do it because it would be politically toxic for him and decided to come up with this solution that doesn't really solve the. What the law stipulated and instead just sort of puts it in the most likely enriches people that he is friendly with.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's a favor.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

And they don't really control TikTok.

[Lucas Shaw]

Huh. But what power will they have? These are not unsophisticated people. What are they paying $14 billion for?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Because they can eventually sell it for a lot more.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay. And. And won't be exposed for being a sham if they're not really getting the algorithm.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

No.

[Matt Bellany]

It's still a promotional platform.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. I just.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I. I've. I've. I've thought all along that this was not a real sale process.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay.

[Lucas Shaw]

Um. It's just an oligarch move.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

All right. What a time. All right. I am buying theatrical stunts. Put a movie in theaters that nobody has heard of or that came out 20 years ago or that has been on Disney for five years. That, to me, is where we are going in the theatrical business now that the studios have pulled back to a place where there are open weekends that you can just drop a Taylor Swift movie and have it gross as much as it did. You can drop Hamilton in theaters and have it gross $10 million when it's been on Disney for five years. You can put Demon Hunters in theaters and have Netflix flex because there's not much there. And you still get a massive press hit by saying, we have the number one movie in America in theaters. I think as the theatrical business contracts for these studios and there's more consolidation, there will be opportunities for people to go with events or re releases or other things as stunts in theaters.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I feel like we have a version of this conversation every year, and we just don't end up. Not necessarily you and I, but there's a desire for. Like, when we had. We taped the show with Adam Aaron, like, there's a desire for a wider range of programming. And most of it, either most of it doesn't materialize, or 9 out of 10 things like that don't really work.

[Matt Bellany]

Maybe.

[Lucas Shaw]

And I hear you, but if you look at the numbers on re releases.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think at this event two years ago, you bought the, like, Taylor Swift. You did a. You bought a version of this with Taylor Swift. And how. There'd be a bunch of.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. Because Adam Aaron was talking about didn't happen. Yes. About all the artists who were calling his cell phone wanting the same treatment. Yeah, that didn't happen. But it doesn't necessarily have to be a concert film. Like, there's a million things that could. I mean, if you put in Kanto in theaters for a stunt weekend, it probably grows 10 to 15 million. I agree with you. Huge on Disney. There's a whole generation of kids that have not been seeing it in theaters. They missed it there. And if you put it in one of those dry periods where there hasn't been a kids movie for a few months, people want to do stuff with their kids. So if you said let's go watch the encanto, sing along, it would gross.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I have a couple.

[Lucas Shaw]

That's a shrug for those listening.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I have a couple more, but I'm do one of each. But I'm going to do it together.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm buying hip hop and I'm selling sports streaming services.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, you're buying hip hop.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

A lot of coverage of how popularity of hip hop is way down. Not touring super well. Streaming numbers are down. It's still the most important music in the culture. There is a lack of new energy and new talent right now. But it's going to be fine. Long term sports streaming. Lot of ESPN and Fox both basically rolled out sports streaming services. I have yet to find anyone who can explain who these services are for and who would pay like $40 for some of the sports.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, one of the analysts said that there's going to be 30 million ESPN customers by 2030.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Seems unlikely.

[Lucas Shaw]

Unless. Unless. Unless it's just TV bundled.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Well, unless it's all the bundled stuff, sure.

[Lucas Shaw]

ESPN will just be that.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

So yeah, great. Okay, that's fine. My sell. I'm selling Kevin Feige at Marvel, generally considered the best executive producer like film talent out there. If you look at the retraction or retrenchment in Marvel over the next couple years, this is a studio that had three or four movies consistently for a decade. One next year, one in 27, and after that, not a lot dated.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Well, they're trying to reboot.

[Lucas Shaw]

They're trying to reboot. And they're rebooting at a time when the expectation for Marvel movies is probably 3 to $400 million less than what it was pre Covid.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

So where does that leave the most powerful producer in town? He had a chance to go do Star Wars. He didn't do it. He's had a chance to do a million other things.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Depends on what your. What you're trying to value. Like, I think he can pretty much have that job as long as he wants to have it.

[Lucas Shaw]

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not saying he's gonna get it.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

But did he, did he. But did he. Did he miss a moment to do something bigger? Should he have. When he was at the peak of his power, should he have taken a different job? Maybe. But maybe he just really likes doing what he's doing.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm not.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm.

[Lucas Shaw]

No judgment. I'm just saying that. I mean, and I'm also not counting Spider man, which is a big. Do you think they produce it but they don't distribute it?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Yeah. Getting ready for your email from Paul Reeder.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I get it. I get it. That's why I'm saying it. Can I just ask you real quick, Are you buying or selling?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Taylor Swift thought about selling. Can't do it.

[Lucas Shaw]

You can't do it. Are you buying or selling? Mike and Pam, Warner Brothers.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm buying the Vision. I do have concerns about the slate next year, but I appreciate the diversity of the slate. They are trying to do what I want a movie studio to do, so I'll buy.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay. Are you buying or selling? Millie Bobby Brown?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I'm. I'm selling.

[Lucas Shaw]

You are?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Okay. I agree. Star on Netflix, nowhere else.

[Lucas Shaw]

Are you buying or selling the Riyadh Comedy Festival?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

In what sense? Like, performing rules here.

[Lucas Shaw]

Will it be back in bigger than ever next year?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

It'll be back next year. I think comedians will think twice about going.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but they got out of it exactly what they wanted out of it. Everybody's talking and people are now defending Saudi Arabia in the public.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

So.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. And last one. Are you buying or selling games on Netflix?

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

Short term, Selling long term. I'm. I've played the Boggle. It's actually, like, kind of fun.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I would buy it. I think.

[Unidentified Co-host/Guest]

I think, I think long term, I'm buying, but I still. They still haven't figured out exactly how it works.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, that's the show for today.

[Matt Bellany]

I want to thank everyone who came out to the screen time event. I want to thank Lucas Shaw, of course, our producer, Craig Orlebeck, our dear Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you.

[Lucas Shaw]

We'll see you a couple more times this week.

[Commercial Narrator]

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[Lucas Shaw]

Let's go.

[Commercial Narrator]

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[Lucas Shaw]

The numbers look good, Brad. You're on mute.

[Commercial Narrator]

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