The ‘Sinners’ Deal, the Manosphere, and the Biggest Overreactions of the First Half of 2025

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode Title: The ‘Sinners’ Deal, the Manosphere, and the Biggest Overreactions of the First Half of 2025
Release Date: June 16, 2025
Host: Matthew Belloni
Guest: Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg

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Overview

In this episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni, Matt Belloni, founding partner at Puck and host of The Town, engages in an in-depth discussion with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. The duo delves into the tumultuous landscape of Hollywood in the first half of 2025, dissecting the industry's most significant overreactions and underreactions. Their conversation offers exclusive insights into high-stakes negotiations, shifting power dynamics, and the evolving influence of media and technology on the entertainment sector.

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Major Overreactions Discussed

1. Trump's Proposed Tariffs on Hollywood Productions

   Matt introduces the first overreaction topic by highlighting former President Trump's unexpected comments on imposing a 50% tariff on movies shot outside the United States. He asserts, "This proposed tariff is never happening. It's just not gonna happen" (04:04). Both Matt and Lucas agree that the industry's panic over this proposition was largely unfounded. Lucas adds, "There's nothing to tariff. He spent some time hanging with Jon Voight and Jon Voight's manager and they talked about bringing some production back to the US, he didn't really understand the issue" (05:57). They conclude that while lobbying for tax credits might persist, the tariff threat is minimal and unlikely to materialize.

2. Ryan Coogler's Ownership Deal for 'Sinners'

   Lucas identifies Ryan Coogler's negotiation to retain ownership of his film "Sinners" as another overreaction. Matt recalls his previous coverage, mentioning studio executives' fears: "They lost the project. But this notion that this is going to become the new normal or that suddenly studios will no longer own movies is patently absurd" (07:14). They discuss how Coogler's success sets a precedent for other influential directors to seek ownership, though Matt remains skeptical about widespread adoption due to the complexities involved.

3. Mike and Pam Drama at Warner Brothers

   Shifting focus, Matt addresses the intense media scrutiny surrounding Warner Brothers executives Mike and Pam amid underperformance concerns. He remarks, "The fever pitch around town, the discussion at lunch spots and parties. Oh, are Mike and Pam out? I think that ended up being an overreaction because sinners hit and it all went away" (10:36). Lucas concurs, suggesting that the initial backlash was premature as subsequent movie releases validated Mike and Pam's strategies, mitigating fears of impending terminations.

4. The Rise of Podcasts and the Manosphere's Influence

   Lucas critiques the narrative surrounding the influence of podcasts and the manosphere post-election, arguing that their impact has been overstated. He states, "It's a symptom, not the cause. Like, they were going on these podcasts because of the disillusionment and the feeling that there needed to be change" (15:12). Matt and Lucas debate whether podcasts like Joe Rogan's have swayed public opinion or elections, ultimately agreeing that while influential, they are reflections of broader societal sentiments rather than primary drivers.

5. Neon vs. A24: The Indie Film Rivalry

   Matt raises the ongoing feud between indie powerhouses Neon and A24 as an overreaction, suggesting that media portrayal has exaggerated their competition. He notes, "It's not an out of nowhere thing. They bet on a bunch of different movies. It's like a roulette table. And then one of them hits" (21:28). Lucas adds that while A24's expansion has shifted the indie landscape, the dramatization of their rivalry overlooks the nuanced business strategies each company employs to maintain their market positions.

6. Netflix's Pursuit of YouTubers and Podcast Personalities

   Matt and Lucas discuss Netflix's aggressive efforts to collaborate with prominent YouTubers and podcasters. Lucas asserts, "Netflix is going after YouTubers. They are having these conversations, but it's not like it's a whole new type of programming for them" (22:12). They debate the efficacy of these initiatives, with Matt envisioning Netflix experimenting with formats like turning popular podcasts into extended video content, though Lucas remains cautious about the scale and impact of such moves.

7. Beyoncé's Tour and Public Reactions to Empty Seats

   The conversation touches on public controversies, such as the backlash against Beyoncé's tour due to empty seats. Matt quips, "If there's something that can be embarrassing, people are going to share it" (24:38). Lucas explains that despite record-breaking earnings, issues like overbooking in major cities sparked unnecessary outrage, comparing it humorously to a "Trump military parade" in terms of viral potential.

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Key Discussions and Insights

• Media's Role in Amplifying Industry Reactions: Both hosts emphasize how media outlets can exacerbate or downplay industry events, influencing public perception and internal company morale.

• Shift in Power Dynamics: The discussion highlights the changing landscape where creators and influencers wield more negotiating power, challenging traditional studio ownership models.

• Integration and Consolidation in Streaming Services: Matt predicts the eventual phasing out of standalone apps like Hulu in favor of integrated platforms under Disney's umbrella, reflecting broader trends in streaming service consolidation.

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Notable Quotes

• Matt Belloni (04:04): "This proposed tariff is never happening. It's just not gonna happen."

• Lucas Shaw (07:14): "They were upset that they lost the project. But this notion that this is going to become the new normal or that suddenly studios will no longer own movies is patently absurd."

• Matt Belloni (10:36): "The fever pitch around town, the discussion at lunch spots and parties. Oh, are Mike and Pam out?"

• Lucas Shaw (15:12): "It's a symptom, not the cause. Like, they were going on these podcasts because of the disillusionment and the feeling that there needed to be change."

• Matt Belloni (21:28): "It's not an out of nowhere thing. They bet on a bunch of different movies. It's like a roulette table. And then one of them hits."

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Conclusions

Matt Belloni and Lucas Shaw provide a critical examination of Hollywood's recent overreactions, debunking exaggerated fears and highlighting underlying industry shifts. Their insights suggest a need for balanced media coverage and a nuanced understanding of evolving power structures within the entertainment world. As Hollywood navigates its mid-2025 challenges, the conversation underscores the importance of resilience and adaptability in an ever-changing landscape.

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Upcoming Topics

While this episode primarily focused on overreactions, Matt hints at a follow-up discussion addressing Hollywood's underreactions in the latter half of the year, promising continued in-depth analysis for listeners keen on comprehending the full scope of the industry's dynamics.

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Stay tuned for the next episode of The Town with Matthew Belloni for more exclusive insights and insider perspectives on Hollywood's evolving narratives.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member Today. This episode of the Town is presented by max. For your consideration, MAX presents the HBO original Mountainhead from the creator of Succession. Mountainhead stars Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Cory Michael Smith and Rami Youssef as four rival tech billionaires gather for their annual mountain retreat. But when one of their AI platforms sparks a global crisis, their boys weekend spirals into chaos. The future of humanity may be a game to them, but billions of lives are on the table. Emmy eligible for Outstanding Television Movie and all other categories now streaming on max. This episode is brought to you by Lucasfilm presenting Andor Season 2 starring Diego Luna. Rolling Stone hails Andor as groundbreaking and masterful with some of the most complex, heartbreaking characters on television. Vanity Fair raves that ANDOR is the best television of the year so far for your Emmy consideration in all categories. All episodes of Andor are now streaming on Disney. It is Monday, June 16th. Hard to believe we're at the halfway point of 2025. Another pretty crazy period in Hollywood. The sale of one studio, Paramount, has been held up by the president and the leadership of another Warner Bros discovery. They admitted its entire strategy has failed and they're gonna break up the company. Amazon fired its content chief Jen Salke and pretty much everyone laid off staff. Hovering over it all were the devastating fires that displaced thousands of people in the LA based industry and led to a reckoning over runaway production. Survive till 25 has turned into Fixin 26. Around this time last year, instead of a mid year report, Lucas Shaw and I looked at some of the narratives of the year and asked whether things have been over covered or or undercovered by the media. Is the industry overreacting to certain trends or news or is everyone underreacting and not paying close enough attention to some stuff? So we're going to do that again. We're going to go through our lists and debate our picks. Today, it's Hollywood's overreaction and under reaction list for the first half of 2025. Part one from the Ringer and puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. All right. We are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

How you doing in South Carolina?

[Matt Bellany]

Doing great. That is supposed to be an undisclosed secret location that I go to every summer.

[Lucas Shaw]

You just go and hang with the white nationalists?

[Matt Bellany]

I do. Lindsey Graham and I are gonna get coffee later. Nice little reaction time for him for this weekend's events. But today we are going to go through some of the big, biggest stories of the first half of the year. Pretty eventful times as always. And we're going to assess whether the narrative around the story has been overcovered. Undercovered the industry reaction has been an overreaction under reaction and give our thoughts on what we think is the true nature of this underlying story.

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm ready.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. You prepared for this one good one?

[Lucas Shaw]

I prepared. This is not one of those where I can just show up and talk about whatever I had to spend.

[Matt Bellany]

This is not a roll out of bed episod. Okay, so we're going to go overreactions first because that's what everyone wants to know. And I'm going to take the first one on this. Okay.

[Lucas Shaw]

The first one is an obvious one, right?

[Matt Bellany]

No, no, no. I'm going to. I'm going to throw a little curveball here. The first overreaction story of the year is the Trump tariffs.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, well, so we're going to have a lot of overlap.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, we are. Oh, see, that's not fun.

[Lucas Shaw]

That was my number two overreaction.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. I think it's number one because the level of freak out over these. This proposed, you know, the. This Trump truth social comment that clearly happened after meetings on the issue of extending the tax credits. He decided to turn this into a tariff issue and say that he wanted a 50% tariff on movies shot outside the country. That is never happening. It's just not gonna happen. And the reactions within the industry, I feel like it was like punch in the face, punch in the nuts, whatever you wanna say. Like, everybody reacted to this as if it was the end of the world. And the most likely outcome here is that there will be lobbying efforts around tax credits. Maybe we get some kind of federal tax credit. I seriously doubt it. But maybe we get some kind of benefit to the industry and otherwise it will go away.

[Lucas Shaw]

I agree. It was funny to see Hollywood got sort of a taste of what it's been like. And the Hollywood press too got a taste of what it's been like for political reporters. The executives got a taste of what it's been like for all these other industries where Trump just tweeted truth shit. Right. He had no plan. There's nothing to tariff. He spent some time hanging with Jon Voight and Jon Voight's manager and they talked about bringing some production back to the US he didn't really understand the issue because he thought it was about us versus other places, which is part of it, but a lot of it's also California versus other states. And so he started a conversation that may go somewhere, but it's probably not. And even the people who are fighting for federal tariffs and incentives acknowledge that it will be difficult to get them through. Because I think there was an effort to do something similar the last Trump presidency and in one of his tax cut bills and it just like to help pay for it that got cut. Like cutting from. Saving Hollywood money is very easy for Trump to do.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. And none of these red state senators are gonna vote for that. Like it's just a non starter. It's the first thing that they want to get rid of, like helping Hollywood. Like why do they want that big winner in all this? Stephen Paul, Jon Voight's manager.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Like who, who was talking about him a year ago?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, no, but don't you remember he was also one of the mystery bidders for Paramount. But he was, but his, his bid was one that everyone just sort of laughed off. Like, ah, that's not real. Like ha ha ha ha.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, he's in the Byron Allen category.

[Lucas Shaw]

Also, I would argue a big win in a weird way for the npa because they were like right at the center of that conversation too. And they haven't had as much that people cared about to work on.

[Matt Bellany]

That's true, that's true. I know. And we'll see if it goes anywhere. I think the bigger issue, and we'll get to this in our underreaction, is in the state level, but. All right, so let's move on. You get to pick an overreaction. Now, your number one overreaction.

[Lucas Shaw]

Mine's gotta be the whole Ryan Coogler sinner's ownership situation, which, look, it is notable that he negotiated this deal such that the movie reverts to him in 25 years or whatever it is.

[Matt Bellany]

I feel somewhat responsible because I wrote about this issue a year ago when it first happened and I included in that some freak out from other studio heads Saying this is not good for the industry.

[Lucas Shaw]

They were upset that they lost the project. But this notion that this is going to become the new normal or that suddenly studios will no longer own movies is patently absurd because you had the best director or the most successful director under the age of 40 with a hot original package that everyone wanted, who was able to dictate the terms. And oh, by the way, as we discussed in a previous episode, the whole movie is about sort of the relationship between art and commerce, between black artists and this and kind of the studio system. And so it meant a lot that he wanted to own this one. Right. He's not asking to own Black Panther. You have had other prominent directors, like, someone sent me a list of movies that people, where they owned, they negotiated ownership. Notably Quentin Tarantino did it with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that was grandfathered from a long time ago. And he has proven himself internationally.

[Lucas Shaw]

Sacha, Baron Cohen with Bruno. There are like a bunch of these examples. The industry is not suddenly changing overnight.

[Matt Bellany]

No, I agree. But I do wonder if this is now a template for others in extreme leverage situations to go after it and use him as a comp, including Coogler himself. He's not getting it on Black Panther 3, but on his next one, he's now not only got a precedent, but he delivered. The movie is at like 360 million worldwide. So why not ask for it again?

[Lucas Shaw]

Go for it. A lot of people, we have the same debate in the music business now, in the music business, a lot of artists do own at this point.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, very different.

[Lucas Shaw]

But in the film business, people often would rather just sort of take the back end and the payday. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

But it doesn't cost $100 million to make an album.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. But for example, I'm sure that if Chris Nolan wanted to, he could ask for this. Right. He just hasn't.

[Matt Bellany]

No, because his back end deal on his movies, they're so lucrative and he has done the math and his representatives have done the math and they don't want this. They don't want the pain in the ass of administering this.

[Lucas Shaw]

At various points in his career, Steven Spielberg could have asked for all sorts. Anything he want, he did.

[Matt Bellany]

He asked for a percentage of the gate at Universal Studios and they gave it to him.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but he doesn't own his full catalog of movies. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. I'm just saying I think that there will be equivocal situations in the future where people look back on the Coogler deal and ask for it and maybe get It. And that is what these studio heads were actually upset about, is that there is now something on the table that they have to worry about in a negotiation.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, look, if you have filmmakers who blow up on YouTube and everybody wants them, they should ask for ownership for their first movie. They just should.

[Matt Bellany]

And they can debut it on YouTube.

[Lucas Shaw]

And then if it fails, it fails.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. Yeah. I just feel like it was an overreaction, and people did. There was a lot written about this, and, you know, the hysterical comments in the Vulture article were a bit much, but it's not an insignificant issue, so I'm going to defend the narrative a little bit.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Well, if the reaction to the podcast we taped was any indication, people who worked at or ran studios did not appreciate some of my commentary. And everybody else was, no.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, Franklin was calling. Franklin, Leonard was calling them racist, which I don't think anyone appreciates. But some great points were raised on that episode. All right.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

My next overreaction is going to be a dovetail on the sinners debate, and that is the Mike and Pam drama at Warner Brothers.

[Lucas Shaw]

What aspect of are we saying was an overreaction?

[Matt Bellany]

So I'm just going to say that the second by second chronicling of whether two studio executives are about to be fired, given that they had not released their big movie that they had bet on yet. I think. What. And I'm not saying that the. The media coverage was inaccurate. It was certainly accurate. I mean, from my reporting, Zaslav was putting feelers out for executives that could take their place at Warner Brothers. And the spending that they have undertaken over the past year or two has been extraordinary, including a lot of deals that I think Zaslav is looking at now and being like, well, wait a second. Why did we do this? Why did we pay all these money to talent to just have them on the lot? Those kinds of things, I think were legitimate. But the fever pitch around town, the discussion at lunch spots and parties. Oh, are Mike and Pam out? I think that ended up being an overreaction because sinners hit and it all went away.

[Lucas Shaw]

See, I would almost argue that the counter reaction was the overreaction.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, the. Like defending them.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, the trades. There were three different Hollywood trades that all, like, encircled Mike and Pam and pretended as though what had been reported previously never happened. Even though it did, because, you know, we were leading on a lot of that at Bloomberg, and like Warner Brothers, Discovery didn't and couldn't push back on what we reported.

[Matt Bellany]

That's true. Zaslav had an opportunity to deny that he was looking elsewhere and his representative did not do that.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, like, obviously, there were things in the course of putting together our stories that we took out, because one reason or another, but in terms of what we actually printed, it was all straightforward, which is that David Zasov was looking. Interviewing, essentially reaching out to potential replacements. He didn't do it. And that happens in this business and in other businesses, by the way, he.

[Matt Bellany]

May still do it. Like the spending isn't different. Like, he. They had one big hit.

[Lucas Shaw]

You were right in that they delivered. And David Zaslav's frustration, you could say, was maybe not unwarranted, but premature because their movies hadn't really come out yet, and their movies then did come out and their movies worked. Right now we have more to see. They have more on this slate that's coming out. But so far they have held up. Mike and Pam have held up their end of the bargain. I just don't appreciate it when press on press broadsides. And so it's like, if you are going to just defend the company and pretend like this stuff didn't happen, they're just kissing ass.

[Matt Bellany]

These outlets are just kissing ass. Right. They want something out of the outlet, out of the studio, or they want to position themselves as a friend of Warner Brothers. So they get something.

[Lucas Shaw]

Just say what happened, that David Zezlav had been looking to replace them. He was unhappy about X, Y and Z. Then Mike and Pam's movies really worked, and now they should be safe. And it's really up to them. Like, do they want to stick around, having been through this whole rigamarole with this unreliable boss?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, you are the defender of truth, justice and the American way. And some of these other outlets are embarrassing themselves. I.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, they're. They're fine. They're just doing their jobs now.

[Matt Bellany]

Now. And now. Now you are committing media on me. I know.

[Lucas Shaw]

I thought about it while I was doing it. It was total hypocrisy.

[Matt Bellany]

I only respond. I do that sometimes, but I only respond when I'm attacked.

[Lucas Shaw]

I debated responding in these cases and I thought. Thought.

[Matt Bellany]

Or when someone does something, I decided.

[Lucas Shaw]

Not to do it. So I just let it out right now. Or.

[Matt Bellany]

Or when outlets are covering standing ovations that can. Then I can't resist myself. Okay, let's go on to your second overreaction.

[Lucas Shaw]

The podcast election slash the manosphere, slash the Joe Rogan of the left. There are like a bunch of people who just woke up one day after the election and realized that podcasts were popular and influential. And it drove me insane.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. By the way, remember when Barack Obama went on Marc Maron, like, where was the manosphere then?

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. The influence of podcasts has undoubtedly grown. Podcasts, YouTube channels, all these things. Like the. The media tour that people do to promote new projects has shifted. Right. They go to these new places. But it's not like podcasts were what swung the election. People were upset with the status quo. People saw reason to like Trump, and podcasts were just an avenue that they used to get the message across.

[Matt Bellany]

It was a symptom, not the cause. Like, they were going on these podcasts because of the disillusionment and the feeling that the, you know, there needed to be change.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's the same thing that happened in 2016 with Facebook, where, like, Facebook is not why Donald Trump won. Was there a bunch of misinformation on Facebook? Sure. But that is not what tipped the scales of that election.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, no, I know. I mean, Obama's been on the Bill Simmons podcast three times, and a lot of these Democrats go on podcasts. It was just that Rogan has a huge audience. He's the number one podcast. He has veered right over the years, and he's now the best venue for people to go if they wanna reach that audience.

[Lucas Shaw]

And a lot of those podcasts had been kind of not necessarily apolitical, but they definitely didn't belong to a particular party. And they just all sort of tilted right this election. Guess what? Like a lot of this country, they. They were representative.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Where do you think the manosphere slash podcast universe is going right now? Has there emerged a Joe Rogan of the left?

[Lucas Shaw]

I think that's a false framing, but.

[Matt Bellany]

Rogan is number one. So who is the top rated podcast right now for people on the left to go to get their message out? Is it. Is it just Rogan? Is it Theo Vaughn?

[Lucas Shaw]

There have been some really good pieces arguing that you just need to essentially reclaim that demographic if you are the Democrats. I guess the other argument, I mean, it's not a place where you go to promote stuff. Like there was, you know, the Midas touch got really popular for a little bit. I think whenever Trump is in power, it is good for the pod save.

[Matt Bellany]

Guys, because everyone is freaking out all the time. Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

But then you're just getting out your message to people who already are sympathetic to your point of view. I don't think it helps you reach new people. Same with, like, Hasan Piker, the popular Twitch streamer. There's a bunch of people who are super popular on the left, but I don't know that they're appealing to sort of center, center, right folks that are key to winning elections.

[Matt Bellany]

So you don't think the new CNN podcast initiative is going to move the needle?

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't. I'm not a. Not a believer.

[Matt Bellany]

This episode is brought to you by.

[Craig]

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[Matt Bellany]

Today's episode is brought to you by.

[Craig]

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[Matt Bellany]

Let's go to my next overreaction of the first half of the year. I'm going to say neon versus a 24.

[Lucas Shaw]

I had a version of this which was every Oscar scandal from this past year. But why Neon?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, stop. We love Oscar scandals. Amelia Perez. Are you saying there was too much coverage of Amelia Perez?

[Lucas Shaw]

Way too much coverage of Amelia Perez.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, come on. That's just fun. She, she, she self imploded their Oscar campaign. Netflix spent tens of millions of dollars to win best picture, got the most nominations, and then had to put the tail between the legs and like basically bow out of best picture because of a scandal that was self inflicted. That's a good story.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I guess. I don't know, some really dumb tweets from 15 years ago or whatever it was. Okay, why Neon versus A24?

[Matt Bellany]

Because they're different businesses now. There's this like, positioning in the media and around town that A24 and Neon are locked in this death match to win awards and dominate the indie space. I'm sorry, but like a 24 kind of won that space. They had a $5 billion valuation. They are now expanding into much bigger movies and a much more diversified slate than Neon has. And they're very different businesses. And I think Neon likes this perception of them as the underdog to a 24 and that they are in this death match. But come on, like, Neon is out there looking for a buyer still. They want a buyer. And like Tom Quinn, friend of the show, but like, where is this buyer that is supposedly gonna come in and buy Neon. They probably did not make that much money on Anora despite winning Best Picture because the campaign was so much and they didn't have the box office.

[Lucas Shaw]

Do you really feel like this gets that much coverage?

[Matt Bellany]

I think it does in the indie world for sure. And like in the, and around town you always hear it like, oh, neon versus a 24.

[Lucas Shaw]

Up until the last year or two, it was totally legitimate because they were the two companies making a particular type of movie and they both had good taste. And Neon, definitely. I mean, I think in general in the indie space, there is a lot of resentment towards a 24.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, resentment and Marvel. I mean, people want to be in business with them.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, no, I'm talking about their competitors resent and envy them.

[Matt Bellany]

Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

Because they have done a phenomenal job of cultivating a brand, but they also come off as totally smug assholes at times. And so. And I think Neon became the company that was sort of the, almost the like leader of the. Because it's hard for. If you're like, if you're one of the divisions of the big companies, Focus Searchlight, nobody's gonna really treat you as a true, true indie.

[Matt Bellany]

True.

[Lucas Shaw]

But I think Now, I mean, a 24 is basically getting out of that game.

[Matt Bellany]

Not out. They still are doing those movies, but they're just doing a lot more.

[Lucas Shaw]

They're doing a lot of television and a lot of their movies this fall cost 50, 60, 70, 80, $90 million.

[Matt Bellany]

They did just have Song's movie the Materialist, which is a more typical a 24 style movie.

[Lucas Shaw]

And now it feels like both Neon and Mubi are sort of jockeying to fill some of the space that A24 has left because it has to try to be bigger because it's raised so much money.

[Matt Bellany]

We could add in the Neon domination of Cannes as an overreaction because everybody loves to say, oh my God, they did it again. They won the Palme d' or again. Which is an amazing feat. They've done it five times in a row. But at this point, Neon is just picking off the movies that they think have a shot of winning the Palme d' or and one of them is.

[Lucas Shaw]

Going to hit and they can then use it as part of their Oscar campaign.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure, yeah, it's good. I'm not, I'm not knocking them. I'm just saying that like, it's not an out of nowhere thing. They bet on a bunch of different movies. It's like a roulette table. And then one of them hits. Yeah, fair all right, give me your next overreaction.

[Lucas Shaw]

Would you rather go Netflix or Beyonce?

[Matt Bellany]

Netflix. Okay, no disrespect.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think the whole Netflix and creators narrative got way overcooked. There was just a bunch of coverage of like, Netflix is going crazy for after podcasters. Netflix is going after YouTubers. Netflix is doing all this stuff. They are having these conversations, but it's not like it's a whole new type of programming for them. They're just saying who is the biggest person in some of these categories that we can bring in and bolster our programming.

[Matt Bellany]

But you don't think that they are specifically looking at views on YouTube and saying this works on YouTube. We would like people to come to us instead of YouTube. So let's take the person that works on YouTube.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's similar to that. But think about it. They've had Cocomelon for years, right? Huge on YouTube. They just used it to be their kids programming. It was not exclusive. It was exclusive, in essence, FOD for Netflix. But it lived on YouTube. It lived on Netflix. They now have Ms. Rachel killing it on Netflix. Also still on YouTube. I'm sure that they will sign a couple of other big YouTubers, but they can't take all of YouTube and bring it to Netflix. They can just pick off a couple of the top people and kind of draft off of it. And most of the people on YouTube they would consider too quote unquote small for Netflix. I've had this conversation with the people there.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know. Most people didn't know who based Rachel was when she was big on YouTube.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, I think anyone with a kid under 4 did.

[Matt Bellany]

That's true. Yes, that's true. My, my in laws have a kid under four and they definitely knew who she was. Yeah. All right. I don't know if I agree with that. I think that we are still going to see some more announcements this year of Netflix getting into business with YouTubers. I don't know if they're going to announce a full fledged podcast initiative, but I could see them picking off a couple of the big podcasts and turning them into three hour daily shows on Netflix where the video runs live in addition to the podcast.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I think you'll see a couple of announcements, but I don't think you'll see like, here's our slate of 12 podcasts and YouTubers that we are taking.

[Matt Bellany]

No. Well, they don't want to characterize it that way because they want to be seen as premium, not just. We're just going to be the video Home of the thing you already get for free. So they're going to put something behind it. But it'll. There'll be a version of a McAfee on Netflix pretty soon.

[Lucas Shaw]

They'd be crazy not to experiment with it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. By the way, just give me your Beyonce one.

[Lucas Shaw]

The whole Beyonce empty seats thing, that tour is doing fine. People were like freaking out about this tour.

[Matt Bellany]

That's a good one.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's making $13 million a night. They maybe scheduled like one too many show in la. One too many New York.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. It was just that that was the launch of the tour and there were some empty space seats there and you know those things. It's like the Trump military parade. That's what goes viral. If there's, you know, something that can be embarrassing, people are going to share it. Yeah. You didn't go to Beyonce in la, did you?

[Lucas Shaw]

I didn't. I went to the previous tour. I. So I did Kendrick this time instead. Those are expensive tickets, man.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. All right, so we are going to save the underrated stories for the next episode, but I have a couple of questions. Why did you not include the Paramount CBS News payoff in your over covered stuff? Because that was certainly. That generated the most coverage.

[Lucas Shaw]

I almost considered doing it for under.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, Me too. That was the. That's the correct answer. It's actually a way bigger deal.

[Lucas Shaw]

The fact that this company is going to pay to settle a totally bogus suit exclusively to get this deal through. Everyone at the company admits that if they weren't doing this merger, they would continue to fight it. So I think. I think it has been properly covered, like almost under. But there has been a lot of ink spilt on it. It deserves to be covered a lot. It's a big deal. There are some of the Trump scandals that I think get blown out of proportion. I think this one's pretty bad.

[Matt Bellany]

My other candidate that just missed the cut was the Dana Walden Kamala Harris relationship.

[Lucas Shaw]

But you're fanning the fucking flames of that one.

[Matt Bellany]

That's why I didn't include it because I actually do think it's important. And was a factor in her falling out of favor for the top job at Disney.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think it matters, but I don't know how much it matters. And so I. That's one of those, like, unless I have a board member telling me like, oh, it mattered or you know, then.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, and. And there's a scenario where it wasn't even a factor because it didn't get to that point. Like there were Other reasons why she's not out of favor. Not saying that she's not still a candidate. She is. But the sentiment at Disney seems to be that Josh tomorrow has the pole position. And perhaps the Kamala relationship was a factor. And you didn't include the Blake Lively Justin Baldoni circus.

[Lucas Shaw]

It broke last year. Right.

[Matt Bellany]

It broke over the holidays.

[Lucas Shaw]

It broke over Christmas. I associated with last year. That's a good point. I should have included that. I'm just so tired of talking about it that I don't want to talk about it anymore.

[Matt Bellany]

But I actually think it is a big deal because of the implications for the PR industry. This is all exposing the dark arts of the digital PR apparatus and the suits involving Steph Jones and all the others like that, to me, is the most interesting stuff.

[Lucas Shaw]

When are you going to do a roundtable of you and your most hated publicists on this show?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, that's a good idea.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, you're welcome.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, would they Come on? We had Louis K. But I like.

[Lucas Shaw]

Louis K. No, no, no. It's gotta be like you, Kelly Bush, Stephanie Jones. I don't know who else is on your naughty list. Simon hall is on your naughty list. And then it can just be like, you guys can have a therapy session on the show.

[Matt Bellany]

That would be good. Would you moderate?

[Lucas Shaw]

Sure. Happy to.

[Matt Bellany]

All right. Open invitation. You know where to find me. PR people.

[Unnamed Producer]

That's a good idea. I don't know what we call that. We'll just have people on that hate, Matt. We'll call it hate.

[Matt Bellany]

Watch the publicist Therapy session.

[Unnamed Producer]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, we're going to do the underrated stories next time. Thanks, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

Thanks, Matt.

[Matt Bellany]

We're back with the call sheet. Craig, did you note the big news in the world of Hulu and Disney streaming last week? Yes.

[Unnamed Producer]

Disney is buying out Comcast stake in Hulu. 33% of it, right?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. This has been going on for three years now. There's been an arbitration over how much Disney has to pay to get the remaining Comcast stake in Hulu. So Disney will own it completely. Some speculation was that they would have to pay up to $5 billion more on top of the 8 billion that they have already paid to Comcast. But the arbitrator ruling came in and it was only $439 million more. Big win for Disney. They ultimately have to pay 9 billion or so to get this asset fully away from Comcast. And the question now is, what is going to happen to Hulu now that Disney controls the entire thing? And my prediction, I wrote this in my newsletter a couple weeks ago and I am redoubling down on this now. My prediction is that Hulu as a standalone app is eventually going to go away. And Hulu will be fully integrated into Disney in the US like it already is, but even more so. And the Hulu app will go away.

[Unnamed Producer]

Because right now it's like if you log into Disney plus, there's, there's Hulu, there's espn, there's like Nat Geo, there's like all the tiles.

[Lucas Shaw]

Correct.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. And you have to subscribe and pay extra to get the Disney bundle to get all their stuff. They're really trying to push people into the Disney bundle via pricing. It's like not that much more expensive to get Hulu and ESPN on top of Disney. And that is where they see their value. Because remember, Hulu is only in the US overseas. Elsewhere it's hotstar is the brand and hotstar is already incorporated into Disney. And that's why I think that the ultimate strategy here is for Hulu to be part of the Disney bundle experience. Maybe eventually to go away entirely, but to be part of the Disney bundle experience. They don't want the outside subscribers. They're nice and I think for a while Disney will gladly take that money, but ultimately they will have it integrated and Disney will be the streaming brand for Disney with everything else as sub brands.

[Unnamed Producer]

Do you think ultimately Hulu will just disappear and the Hulu shows will become Disney shows? Or is that, is that what Max tried to do and and failed?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I think Disney needs to have adult entertainment brands. And I mean that by like shows for adults, not families. And there needs to be something, you know, they probably could have done it with fx. Now they have this awkward situation where it's like FX on Hulu. But Hulu does have a brand in this country. People know it mostly as like the place you go to watch last night's episode of the Bachelor, like next day tv. But there's a lot of complications. There's a different tech stack, there's, you know, ad capabilities, there's user interface. All that stuff needs to be figured out.

[Unnamed Producer]

So do you think ultimately the Hulu tile will disappear?

[Matt Bellany]

No. Maybe they rebranded FX or something. But there will be some adult entertainment indicator on Disney as long as they have adult oriented content on Disney. And for the most part, people I talk to at Disney say that that is continuing. They're not abandoning that. So I think Hulu will live on as a brand in this country, just not as a standalone app. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest Lucas Shaw, producer Greg Horbeck, our editor Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this week. This episode is brought to you by Netflix, presenting the Diplomat from writer and creator Deborah Kahn. Keri Russell and Rufus Sewell return, with Allison Janney joining in the explosive second season as US Ambassador Kate Wyler navigates high stakes diplomacy and a fraught marriage in search of the truth. The Guardian lauds the Diplomat, a masterclass in storytelling, and Indiewire hails it one of the best shows of the year for your Emmy consideration. The Town is supported by FX's say Nothing now, nominated for four BAFTA TV awards. Based on the book by Patrick Radenke, the Peabody Award nominee is a story of murder and memory in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. Following Dolores and Marion Price, it explores the extreme some people will go to in the name of their beliefs and how a deeply divided society can suddenly tip over into armed conflict. Time calls say Nothing exceptional, an urgently timely work of political art. All episodes streaming on Hulu.