The Summer Box Office Report Card: Surprise Hits, Big Flops, and Key Takeaways

Summary

The Town with Matthew Belloni — Episode Summary

Episode Overview

Episode Title: The Summer Box Office Report Card: Surprise Hits, Big Flops, and Key Takeaways
Date: August 29, 2025
Host: Matt Belloni
Guest: Scott Mendelsohn (Box Office Analyst, Puck)
Episode Theme:
Matt Belloni and returning guest Scott Mendelsohn break down the 2025 summer box office, revisiting their pre-season “confidence scale” rankings for this summer’s wide releases. They analyze hits, misses, and the broader industry implications, including Hollywood’s ongoing franchise obsession, original IP drought, the international market’s shifting role, and what this summer means for the future of theatrical releases.

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Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Big Picture: This Summer’s Box Office Landscape

• General Consensus: The season was "boring," defined by a lack of mega-hits and fewer big movies in wide release ([04:04]).
  • Scott Mendelsohn: "There weren't enough major movies in wide release... There was not one or two super mega smash hits to sort of [cover] the spread of underperforming films" ([04:25]).
  • Matt Belloni: "No Barbenheimer type phenomenon... A bunch of doubles, not a lot of home runs" ([05:22]).
• International Box Office: Only one movie hit $1 billion worldwide, signaling international softening.
  • Standout: "Lilo & Stitch" was the sole film to cross the billion-dollar mark ([01:08], [07:14]).
• The Franchise Model: Franchises performed serviceably but without true breakout returns.

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2. Film-by-Film Report Card

(discussed largely between [05:21] and [36:53])

Final Destination: Bloodlines

• Outcome: Success; budget $50M, ~$300M worldwide.
• Notable Moment: First R-rated supernatural Hollywood horror to open in China; "Apparently the Chinese love hot people getting murdered" — Matt ([06:07]).
• Winner: Scott’s confidence paid off.

Lilo & Stitch

• Outcome: Summer’s biggest (and only) billion-dollar hit.
• Key Quote: “I underestimated this movie. I am not a millennial. I did not have the nostalgia for it and I was proven wrong.” — Matt ([07:14])
• Winner: Scott (bet the highest on this one, giving it a 16/16 on the scale).

Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning

• Outcome: Did OK, not profitable due to high $400M budget.
• Discussion: Loss of China/Russia markets hurt. "It basically performed like a Mission Impossible sequel" — Scott ([08:34]).
• Will there be another?
  • Scott: “No.” Complete saga, not likely soon ([09:29]).
  • Matt: "I disagree... within five years, there will be another" ([09:40]).

Karate Kid Legends

• Outcome: Underperformed; $45M budget for $112M worldwide.
• Debate: Matt (not confident): "There will not be another Karate Kid movie for a long time. Nor should there be." ([11:30])
• Scott: Appreciated its independence from original; Matt wanted more nostalgia ([11:09]).
• Winner: Matt

Ballerina

• Outcome: Disappointment; $90M budget, $135M worldwide.
• Insight: Over-marketed as "wicked", missing what made it special ([12:04]-[12:26]).
• Studio action: Lionsgate fired marketing staff post-release.
• Notable moment: Extended joking about Ana de Armas’s fandom ([14:06]).

How to Train Your Dragon

• Outcome: Big success; $150M budget, $628M worldwide.
• Discussion: Universal succeeded in launching a live-action remake franchise.
• Scott: DreamWorks sequels often outperform; bullish for future ([15:15]).

Elio (Pixar)

• Outcome: Flop; lowest-grossing Pixar movie ever pre-COVID, around $152M worldwide ([16:48]).
• Root Cause: Disney’s schedule shuffling, possibly watering down the film.
• Key insight: "Pixar movies aren’t musicals... musicals keep popping up on the charts." — Matt ([18:46])
• Larger lesson: Both a Pixar issue and a film-specific failing.

28 Years Later

• Outcome: Modest $150M worldwide on $60M budget — less than hoped.
• Lesson: "Hollywood tricks themselves into thinking vaguely recognizable IPs are worth bidding wars... they're not." — Scott ([20:02]).

Megan 2.0

• Outcome: Massive underperformance; $39M worldwide, down from original’s $180M.
• Reason: Overconfidence in the “marquee character,” genre switch didn’t work ([21:51]-[21:59]).
• Key quote: "She did the Toonces the driving cat off the cliff here." — Matt ([21:36])
• Broader impact: "Scary for Blumhouse... not the brand it once was." — Scott ([22:49])

F1

• Outcome: Big international hit; $605M worldwide ($419M international).
• Significance: "A spectacular result for F1... this was an example of a film that kicked ass overseas." — Scott ([23:44])
• Apple’s Theatrical Future: Potential encouragement to release more Apple movies in cinemas.

Jurassic World: Rebirth

• Outcome: Strong; $850M worldwide. Down from billionaire predecessors, but hit expectations.
• Key quote: "I think it's a win. They can do more Jurassics with this cast..." — Matt ([27:02])

Superman

• Outcome: Good enough; $606M worldwide, seen as a successful reset.
• Scott: "This film was received in a way that will make people excited... for what comes next." ([28:22])
• Matt: “Take the W, but it’s not the new Iron Man.” — ([28:22])
• Note: Domestic strength is crucial for launching franchises ([29:24]).

Smurfs

• Outcome: Flop; $110M on $60M budget.
• Matt: "What a grift. That song was so half-assed. [Rihanna] did not seem to help." ([31:02])
• Scott: “Trying to refurbish discarded IP, dumpster diving through another studio’s leftovers.” ([30:30])
• Winner: Scott (least confident).

Fantastic Four: First Steps

• Outcome: Underperformed, $491M worldwide on over $200M budget.
• Scott: "The Marvel brand is now a 4-fans-only franchise... not a good place for Marvel to be." ([33:02])
• Reason: Oversaturation, Disney+ sprawl, loss of general-audience event status.

Naked Gun

• Outcome: Did about as expected, $88M worldwide.
• Matt: "Everyone said it needed to do well for comedies to be released theatrically. I don't think we got a clear message..." ([35:09])
• Scott: Good reviews, might be a “breakout sequel” if they make another ([35:04]).

Freakier Friday

• Outcome: Light comedy succeeded, $115M on $45M budget; hit with target audience.
• Scott: “Great if this re-acclimates audiences to smaller Disney movies in theaters.” ([36:15])

Weapons

• Outcome: Surprise over-performer, $207M and counting on $38M budget.
• Scott: "Two for two in terms of, 'keep an eye out for this one.'" ([36:53])

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3. Key Industry Takeaways & Debates

[37:25] — Studio Winners & Losers

• Winner: Unanimous: Warner Bros. (multiple robust successes, able to keep DC and new franchises moving forward).
  • "They had weapons. They had Superman. They released F1... Final Destination. Those are all hits." — Matt ([37:27])
• Runner-up: Universal (for dependable successes, not risky breakouts).
• Loser:
  • Scott: Lionsgate — "With Michael says of 2026 and Saw 11 in purgatory, this is it for them up until September." ([38:28])
  • Matt: Sony — failed tentpoles (Karate Kid, 28 Years Later, I Know What You Did Last Summer), lacked a major summer hit ([39:39])
  • Paramount also criticized for franchise missteps.

Broader Trends ([33:16], [33:59]):

• Marvel is no longer a mass-appeal brand, now reliant on nostalgia and devoted fans.
• Original ideas and unexpected breakouts are increasingly rare.
• Studios are risk-averse, often resorting to recycled IP (Smurfs, Karate Kid) with diminishing returns.
• The domestic market is increasingly important for franchise launches as international grosses become less reliable.

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4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Matt (on summer 2025 as “boring”): "Kind of boring stuff. Did okay. Stuff didn't perform. Like nothing really interesting to talk about." ([04:04])

• Scott (on IP bidding wars): "Hollywood sort of tricks themselves into thinking these vaguely recognizable IPs are worth, worthy of a competitive bidding war. And quality notwithstanding, they're not." ([20:02])

• Matt (on Smurfs & Rihanna): "What a grift. That song was so half-assed. And she made some appearances at CinemaCon...did not seem to help." ([31:02])

• Scott (Marvel’s current status): "Unless you're dealing with outside nostalgia...the Marvel brand is now a 4 fans only franchise. That is a terrible place for Marvel to be." ([33:02])

• On animation & musicals:

  • "Pixar movies aren't musicals. And the musicals are the ones that keep popping up on the charts." — Matt ([18:46])
  • "That's what Encanto has in common with Demon Slayer—everyone's listening to songs." — Scott ([18:55])

• On Megan 2.0: "She did the Toonces the driving cat off the cliff here." — Matt ([21:36])

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5. Competition Recap & Final Tally ([40:34])

• Final Score (Box Office Confidence Game):
  • Scott: 9 wins
  • Matt: 7 wins
• Craig: "Almost proves that this is very hard to predict and everything is a coin flip." ([41:10])
• Key Gaps: Largest prediction differences split between Smurfs, Superman, Karate Kid, and Naked Gun.

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6. Key Timestamps

• State of the Summer, No Big Hits: [04:04]–[05:22]
• Franchise Update (Final Destination, Lilo & Stitch): [05:22]–[07:32]
• Mission Impossible Analysis: [08:20]–[09:40]
• Elio Flop & Pixar Discourse: [16:48]–[18:46]
• Marvel Fatigue Commentary: [33:02]–[34:14]
• Winners & Losers Recap: [37:25]–[39:39]
• Box Office Prediction Results: [40:29]–[41:51]

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Conclusion: Episode Takeaways

The episode provides an in-depth, candid “report card” for summer 2025’s major releases, highlighting how even industry insiders can miss the mark in their predictions. It reinforces both the unpredictability and the franchise obsession of the current studio system, noting the increasing challenges faced by originals and second-tier IPs in breaking out. Ultimately, the episode is marked by its tone—wry, self-aware, and energetic—matching the creative and commercial volatility of the movie business.

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To hear all the candid industry insights and banter, listen to The Town with Matthew Belloni, August 29, 2025.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

This is Bill Simmons and I want to tell you about my movie podcast, the Rewatchables, where each week I'm joined by ringer movie lovers Chris Ryan, Sean Vanity, Van Lathan, Kyle Brandt, Mallory Rubin. We have a whole bunch of people on. We talk about movies we can't stop rewatching. And now you can watch us cover these movies on video in the Spotify app. We have covered over 350 movies, including Heat, Goodfellas, Boogie Nights, Pulp Fiction. We have some real heavy hitters coming up here in 2025. Make sure to follow us on Spotify where you can watch every new episode. Right now, just head to the rewatchables on Spotify now on video.

[Emmy Awards Announcer]

Adolescence has been nominated for 13 Emmy Awards, including outstanding limited series, Outstanding lead Actor, Stephen Graham.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

What are you doing?

[Emmy Awards Announcer]

Outstanding supporting actor, Owen Cooper.

[Matt Bellany]

I haven't done anything.

[Emmy Awards Announcer]

And outstanding supporting actress, Erin Doherty.

[Bill Simmons]

You need to sit down, Jay.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Tell me where to sit down.

[Emmy Awards Announcer]

Forbes raves adolescence is an all time technical masterpiece. Deadline declares it a world changing phenomenon. For your Emmy consideration, Outstanding Limited Series Adolescence only on Netflix.

[Matt Bellany]

This episode is brought to you by Acorn tv, the world's best streaming service for thrilling crime dramas and brilliant mysteries. Don't miss Stephen Moyer in the hit new series Art Detectives. And coming this month, Alicia Silverstone executive produces and stars in the newest Acorn TV original series Irish Blood, where she'll unravel the mystery of her father's disappearance and all clues lead to Ireland. Catch these killer new mysteries. Streaming now Only on Acorn TV. It is Thursday, August 28th. Happy Labor Day weekend. Which of course marks the end of the summer movie season. Not a great one for Hollywood hits, of course. Some pretty meaningful ones. Superman cracked the 600 million line worldwide, which means Warner Bros. Can keep making DC movies with this universe of actors. F1 did better than 600, which means that Apple may keep releasing some movies in theaters. Not sure about that yet, but overall box office is gonna stay below 4 billion and that's down from 2023. Maybe it gets to more than last year. We're still not sure about that. Internationally, only one movie got to a billion. Lilo and Stitch. Congrats to Lucas. He's got that one in our box office draft. And a bunch of the hits like Final Destination and Weapons, they're probably considered doubles rather than home runs. There was certainly no Barbenheimer type phenomenon. If you remember, back in May, we had Scott Mendelsohn on the show. He's the box office guru at Puck and he has his own substack. We went through our summer movie confidence scale. We assigned a number, 1 through 16, to each movie based on how confident we were that it would hit the target the studio expected out of it. We're all about accountability on this show. So now we're back and we're going to see how we did. Was our confidence or lack of confidence justified and whose gut was most accurate for this summer? Today it's the summer box office reckoning for both Hollywood and Scott and me. From the ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. All right. We are here with Scott Mendelsohn, box office guru and returning champion on the town. Welcome back, Scott.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Always a pleasure. Thank you for having me.

[Matt Bellany]

I gotta admit, I'm sort of dreading this episode because I've watched one by one these movies come out this summer and sometimes our confidence was a little misplaced here and sometimes my lack of confidence was proven wrong here. So we're gonna go through one by one these movies that at the beginning of the summer we ranked. Remember we were forced to rank 1 through 16 and we could not repeat a number. So everything got a number that reflected our belief that it would perform or not perform to expectations. And we are now going to see how we did and hopefully I turned out okay. Although you are the expert.

[Craig]

So you, Matt, you sound devastated to go through this.

[Matt Bellany]

I am a little because I've seen the numbers and it's not great. Okay, first though, Scott, overall impression of the summer. Yay. Nay may meh. Shrug, shrug. Me too. Kind of boring stuff. Did okay stuff didn't perform like nothing really interesting to talk about.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

The issue, simplistically speaking with the summer is as usual. There weren't enough major movies in wide release and unlike previous summers past, there was not one or two super mega smash hits to sort of COVID the spread of underperforming films and. Or movies that just did okay and or a lack of overall content.

[Matt Bellany]

Right.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

You had hits but you didn't have any super mega Barbenheimer style over performers.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Not even one of those like faith based movies that all of a sudden is gross $200 million like nothing like that.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah. Which again, you can't depend on those obviously. Just like you can't depend on, you know, a sporadic miracle like, you know, in 2004 you had the Passion, the Christ and Fire, 9911 making gajillions of dollars for people that otherwise would have stayed home.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, and not even like a big indie thing. Where, you know, we had long legs or something. I mean, yeah, materialists did fine. It's at like 85 million. And.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And weapons.

[Matt Bellany]

Weapons, Right, but Weapons is a studio horror movie, so we'll get to weapons, but. But yes, and a lot of doubles, not a lot of home runs. So let's start here. Final Destination, Bloodlines. You had it at a 15 on the confidence scale. I was a little less confident at 13. $50 million budget, ended up doing 287 worldwide. Pretty good.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

It just opened in China last weekend, according to wbe and I can't find anything to refute this. It's the first R rated supernatural Hollywood horror film to open in China, if not ever, then certainly in a very, very, very, very long time. It did 6 million its opening weekend, so it should be over under 300 worldwide right now.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, okay, then I stand corrected. Who knew the Chinese love hot people.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Getting murdered when they're offered it. Yes.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so you win that one. Craig, will you take. Will you keep track of which of us won each movie and then at the end we will tally up.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Sure.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. So, Scott, at a 15, I think this movie exceeded expectations. 287 or 300 worldwide on a $50 million budget. Definitely relaunched the franchise. You were more confident, so you win that one. Lilo and Stitch, I had it at a 15 on the confidence scale. You went all in. A 16 and you were rewarded. Billion worldwide. 6, 10 international. That's a pretty good number. This is the only movie this summer to get to a billion. And I will admit I said this on the first show. I underestimated this movie. I am not a millennial. I did not have the nostalgia for it and I was proven wrong. Well, not that wrong, though I did say 15.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah, well, you did 13 for final destination. It's not the end of the world that it did better, but whenever. That's true. Stitch. Yeah, that's the one cartoon of the post Katzenberg and let's say pre Princess and the Frog Tangled era that's even as remotely as popular in present tense moviegoers as the Renaissance stuff.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, Stitch, very popular. So, all right, we were both very confident, but you were more confident and it exceeded expectations, so you get that one. Moving on to Mission Impossible, the final Reckoning. You had it at a three on the confidence scale. I had it as a four. The budget, $400 million for this movie. The overall worldwide, 598 worldwide. So it exceeded the previous one by about, I think 10 or 20 million, but basically did exactly the same as the first Reckoning Mission impossible and cost $400 million. This movie will not be profitable for Paramount and Skydance. This movie did okay, right?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yes. But first of all, again, I'm willing to give some leeway to the budget because shot during a pandemic, from what I'm told, they kept everybody on payroll, which is something that is good.

[Matt Bellany]

Good for them, not so good for the studio.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Most of the global downturn from these last two pictures compared to the 2010s installments was because of an overall downturn in China and Russia. So it basically performed like a Mission Impossible sequel. It was leggy as hell in North America, which was. People liked it. And with all the hubbub about Dead Reckoning tanked because it lost IMAX screens. This film was leggy as hell even after it lost IMAX screens.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And it did have those IMAX screens, though, that the previous one did not.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Because Barbenheimer and Nothing dropped dead after losing its PLF screens. And that is a very encouraging thing.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, so who wins this one? You were less confident than I was. Do I win this one? Because you say it did okay, and I had it. I was a little more confident.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I'll give this one to you. If I lose by one, then we'll talk.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, neither of us was that confident, so I'll take the. The W on that one just because I was a little bit more. And do you think they make another soon?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

No, and I think in the broad scheme of things, this is still a win because you still get a complete eight film saga that doesn't end on a giant cliffhanger. So they kind of had to suck it up and finish the movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I disagree. I think they will make another one pretty soon. I just think Skydance, now running Paramount, they're looking for franchises anywhere they can find it. They'll take a couple of years off. Cruise will do some other things, but I think within five years, there will be another Mr. Impossible. I think what they should do is strip it down and have it be like a very tight, you know, hour 45. Yeah. Escape movie or something like that, where it's. It's different and it feels kind of like maybe even he's got a partner or something. I don't know if Renner's available, but they got. They got to do something different. But I do think they'll make another one. It's sort of fiscally irresponsible to not. All right. Karate Kid Legends. I had this movie as a one on the confidence scale. I was not confident at all. I did not think this would perform. You had it as an 8. It had a $45 million budget. The worldwide on this movie was 112. Not great. I'm going to take the W on this one, too.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Well, I mean, yes and no.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you're going to claim that The Sony wanted 112 million out of this movie?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

No. But will it make money over the long haul?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, forget the long haul. We're talking about this summer. This summer they wanted 300 million out of this movie.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yes, that's fair. And I liked the movie, but it was also like, what the hell are you doing here?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, my. You liked it? They didn't like. Daniel LaRusso wasn't even in it until like an hour and something into it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

That's why I liked it, because it was its own thing. I love the first hour when it's just the kid training his girlfriend's father how to be, you know, a kickboxer or whatever.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, see, I was the total opposite. I was like, I come to Karate Kid. I want to see the goddamn Karate Kid. Where is Daniel LaRusso?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

He's elsewhere. But I like this new Karate Kid who is fun and charismatic.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure. All right, 112. I'm going to take the W. I was not confident. And there will not be another Karate Kid movie for a long time. Nor should there be Ballerina, Our Girl, Ana de Armas. Craig was very excited about this one. I had it as an 8. You had it as a 5. On the confidence scale, the budget, they say it was 90 million. I don't know if that includes all the reshoots and putting more Keanu in it. It does. Okay, well, I'm a little skeptical of that. Overall, worldwide, 135 million. Not great.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

No. I mean, again, to be fair, good reviews, good word of mouth, people seem to like it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. What happened here?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I will argue that they overcompensated and selling the wickedness of it all to the extent that they sort of implicitly argue that there wasn't that much special about the movie itself. And as someone that thinks it's a solid three star programmer, I think that was a mistake.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they did fire their marketing people after this movie. Lionsgate got rid of the marketing people. They say it was unrelated. I have my doubts. But, yeah, they wanted a lot more out of this. So you get the win on this one. You were less confident than I was. I had an 8, you added a 5. So you are going to take the win On Ballerina. Will they do additional John Wick spinoffs is the question.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I don't know how long in development the Donnie Yen picture is, although, I mean, if they can spend $60 million on a Donnie Yen directed Donnie Yen action movie that has value beyond just the John Wick brand, I would argue. Do they do it? I don't know. But it's not the worst. If you want to make John Wick spin offs and we can debate whether they should, there are worse wins.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they sort of have to. This is Lionsgate. This is like their biggest franchise, and they killed off the main character in the previous John Wick. So other than bringing him back or having, you know, the ghost of Keanu advising other people, like, what are they going to do?

[Craig]

I think this movie struggled because it came out in the summer right around Mission Impossible, and it got swallowed up by that.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And if this movie was.

[Craig]

I think if this was an April movie, it would have done a lot better. And it feels like a much more successful April movie than it does a competing with Jurassic park and Mission Impossible movie.

[Matt Bellany]

So Lionsgate got a little over their skis.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And what they had, Covid and Strikes notwithstanding, this film obviously would have had a little bit more buzz had it come out a maybe between John Wick 3 and 4, so the continuity wouldn't be all convoluted and much sooner after Knives out and no time to die when Ana de Armas was. To a certain extent.

[Craig]

That's totally fair.

[Matt Bellany]

That's fair. How dare you, Scott? How dare you say anything negative about Ana de Armas? She is the patron saint of the town. Craig. Craig, how do you agree with that? You got to defend her.

[Craig]

Look, I thought the movie was. Was solid.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I.

[Matt Bellany]

She got you in the theater. She got you. You. You attended this movie in the theaters. Paid. Paid real American money.

[Craig]

I went to the premiere alone, actually.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, that's right, you did go to the premiere alone. Yes, but yet you were too scared to say hello to her, which I stand by. Okay.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

It comes to modern American movie stardom more often than not. Deserves. Got nothing to do with it.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, well, let's move on. How to train your dragon. Scott was a 13 on this movie. I was a 12. Budget 150. I think it was higher. And worldwide, 628. Pretty good.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yes. I would say this was an unmitigated win. The reviews were good, the legs were long, People showed up and they liked what they saw.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, and Universal has two more of these coming. They say. Or at least one is dated. So this was very important because they want to be in the Disney business of remaking the hits. And now they can be. They got. They got a real franchise here.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Unlike Pixar and Disney, DreamWorks franchises, for better or worse, are franchises. Most of the hit films have two or three sequels. And weirdly enough, most DreamWorks animated franchises have a part two that's better than the part one. So if they can get part one and get away with it, then they've got two or three almost automatic hits.

[Matt Bellany]

Does this mean that we're going to get a Kung Fu Panda live action?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

That is the great question. You know, making a Kung Fu Panda live action is very different than making how to Train you'd Dragon live action because one is basically a Cuban set Dungeons and Dragons adventure story and one is like the Lion King. But can we get away with it?

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, but, but my point is the dragon is a CG dragon at the center of it and you could make the panda a CG panda at the center of that movie, but then everyone.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Else is also cg and that's what's sort of different about it.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, yeah, I guess you'd have to change that.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Like Lilo and Stitch, you have one CG crowd pleasing element amidst an otherwise human story.

[Matt Bellany]

That's true. How to Train youn Dragon. Huge win for Universal. You were more confident. So you get the W on that one. Elio. Oof. You had it as a six. I had it as a two. Budget. 150 to 200. That's a big range. They say 150, I think, but I think they did a lot of tinkering with this one. So probably closer to 2. Domestic was only 72 million on this movie. Yikes. Worldwide, 152. The lowest grossing Pixar movie ever. Is that right?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I think Onward was less than that.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, Covid impacted. Yeah, non Covid impacted before 2020.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

How about that?

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so huge loss here for Disney. I was way less confident in this movie than you were. So I'm going to take the W. I mean, what. What's left to say about Elio?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

They should have kept it in summer.

[Matt Bellany]

2024 as no, they Iger didn't want this coming out. Right when he had an activist shareholder up his butt. He wanted this to be pushed so he could get rid of the activists and then it would be dumped and he didn't have to worry about it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I mean, it would have been more successful.

[Matt Bellany]

You think so?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I do. I think the original cut, assuming all the, you know, the Mudsling.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you're talking about content wise, you're thinking. You think they washed it of anything controversial?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yes. And whether or not the unedited version would have been more successful, it couldn't have been any worse. And it would have been coming six months after a year after Elemental, which showed that audiences were willing to come back to see a Pixar original. The alternate to that is that it would have been a few months after Wish, which was one of the worst movies Disney's ever made. So I might be wrong, but I do think coming off of Elemental, there was reason to be optimistic that maybe that was the one that was going to re acclimate them to showing up for non sequel animated films again. And the fact that they didn't is terrifying.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. So the larger lesson here, do you think Elio was an Elio problem or is it a Pixar problem?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

It's both. I think in a vacuum, maybe you do good dinosaur numbers, which is still terrible, but you make it back over the long haul and post theatrical, but you don't make back 150 worldwide on a 2 to 2 whatever the actual budget was from DVD sales and Disney streaming DVD.

[Matt Bellany]

Who's buying DVDs?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Exactly.

[Matt Bellany]

I think it'll do fine on Disney at the beginning. But these Pixar movies aren't musicals. And the musicals are the ones that keep popping up on the charts.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

That is correct. That's what Encanto has in common with Demon Slayer. Everyone's listening to songs.

[Matt Bellany]

You mean Demon Hunters? Please get your demons straight.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Which one's got the Infinity Castle? I don't remember.

[Matt Bellany]

No. Demon Hunters is the K pop movie. Demon Slayer is the Japanese movie that's coming out later, which is going to.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Kick ass in September domestically as it races toward 300 worldwide.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, well, that is outside our purview here, so I'm going to take the W on Elio. I was way less confident than you were. Let's move on. 28 years later, the sequel, 20 years after the previous zombie movie with Danny Boyle back directing. I was confident in this. I had it as a 9. You were less confident, you had it as a 7. The budget was 60 million on this. The worldwide was 150 million worldwide. So not what they wanted out of this. Sony, I think when they bought this, it was a competitive situation. They bought this thinking this could be a summer franchise and could do 2,300 million. 150, I think is a disappointment.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And I think the problem is Hollywood sort of tricks themselves into thinking these vaguely recognizable IPs are worth worthy of a competitive bidding war. And quality notwithstanding, they're not.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, Sony didn't have anything else for this summer, so they kind of needed this. And once Spider Verse got delayed, they needed something that they could plug into the summer. So, you know, I think they'd probably do this deal again. It's not going to be a big money loser for them, but certainly not the Juggernaut. And they got another one of these coming in what, six months?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Once again, Nia dacosta is being set up to take the hit for another film slash franchise's underperformance.

[Matt Bellany]

She did Candyman and she did a Marvel movie. Right. Although Candyman was good, Candyman was profitable.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

That made money.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, but she. Which one of the Marvels did she do? The Marvels.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

The Marvels.

[Matt Bellany]

The Marvels. Okay. Well, hopefully she'll have better luck here. But you actually predicted, you said 28 years later will open bigger than Elio, which turned out to be true. It was a 30 million opening, and Elio only got to 20, so I'll take it. Let's move on to Megan 2.0. Oof. We both took a hit here. I was confident. I said this was an 11. I thought this would work. You were a little less confident at 10. The budget was anywhere from 15 to 25. I think Blum said on the show that it was 20, if I remember correctly, worldwide, 39 million. Yikes.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I mean, to be fair, other than the Purge franchise, Blumhouse sequels generally don't over index compared to the first ones.

[Matt Bellany]

But the first one did 180 worldwide. I mean, it was underperforming. And then there's like falling off a cliff. She did the Toonces, the driving cat off the cliff here. And this is a quarter of what the first one did.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

This is an overestimation of the marquee character. You could argue that switching up genres did more harm than good.

[Matt Bellany]

That seems to be what Blum thinks. He thinks that they were too confident. They thought M3 Gan could do anything. She was a superhero, she was funny. And they got away from what made the original work, which was that ultimately it was a horror movie.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I think if they had made a film that was basically demolition Terminator 2, but with Megan, but made that movie, I think it would have been fine. But they really didn't give you that level of Megan in her Megan outfit versus the evil robot beating the crap out of each other. I mean, they don't give you the Demolition man payoff.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, So I was more confident than you. We both kind of take a loss on this one. But you were less confident, so you.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Take the W. I was pretty confident.

[Matt Bellany]

We were both confident. I know neither of us should get a win on this one, but somebody has to. And you were less confident, so you get it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And I think it's. It's scary for Blumhouse because they are not the brand name that they were in the mid to late 2010s.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. But they're still doing a lot of movies, so I think they can get it back. They got Five Nights at Freddy's too. Hopefully that will be a little bit better.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

That would be probably so profitable it might make up the difference for everything else.

[Matt Bellany]

Maybe. We'll see. I'm sure they are furiously tinkering that one to make sure it does as.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Well as possible, because that always works.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, F1, I had this as a seven. You had it as a four. You were pessimistic on this one. Worldwide, it is at 605 million. The international, as we both predicted, the international is much larger. 419 domestic, just 185. So it doubled, more than doubled its take internationally. I'm going to take the W on this one. This is a good result for F1.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

This is a spectacular result for F1. It was leggy. It was well liked, it was well reviewed. We spent all summer talking about underwhelming overseas grosses, even for big domestic pictures. This was an example of a film that kicked ass overseas.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. No, and which, which we kind of knew it would do. The budget, you know, anywhere from 250 to 300. So not cheap. And it's a standalone. I don't know, maybe they'll do a sequel. Yeah, maybe they will. But. Yeah. I just feel like this is a invitation to Apple to do more big budget summer movies and put them in theaters. And that is what Hollywood wanted out of this movie. And we got it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

They could still chicken out. And frankly, of course, there's no reason why Highest to Lowest didn't get at least a token theatrical release.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, that's a whole separate the Spike Lee movie. You got Denzel in a drama and you dump it in late August. Like, I don't know what happened there. Dive into an Italian summer with Dolce and Gabbana light blue. Visit Dolce Gabbana.com to discover more.

[Bill Simmons]

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[Matt Bellany]

More at applecard.com Jurassic World Rebirth. This was my number one most confident movie. I put this as a 16. You had it as a 14 budget. Around 200 worldwide. 850. Pretty good result.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

The only reason it's not 15 is because final Destination was so cheap that I couldn't imagine it not at least crawling to 150.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, but this is down from a billion. These Jurassic movies keep grossing less and less each time.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Not really. If you take out China, which is a macro issue, this film is going to end up within 10% of Dominion domestically and overseas.

[Matt Bellany]

All right. I'm just saying we got to take out China because China's not a factor. Although it did get a release in China.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

It did. It did. $70 million, which is why 2020 standards is good, but it's still less than the 160 that Dominion did.

[Matt Bellany]

You're making my argument. I was most confident about this. And you think that this movie hit the expectations that Universal had for it?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Assuming their expectations are realistic. And I'm assuming they were, you know, they were spending 180 and hoping for 750. They got 850 plus. I imagine they're thrilled.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And this was rushed into production because they needed a big summer movie. So I think it's a win. I'm going to take the W on this. They can do more Jurassics with this cast, so I'm going to say this is a win. I'm going to give myself the W on this. All right. Superman, you were much more bullish on this. You had it at an 11 on the confidence scale. I had it as a 6 budget. 225 worldwide. 606 million. So not embarrassing. They can do more Supermans. I think this is a win for Warners.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah. The domestic number is very strong. It's Leggier.

[Matt Bellany]

350.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

A hell of a lot leggier than the last one. People like it. And Obviously this is 2025. But in terms of sentiment, this feels a hell of a lot closer to Iron man and Batman Begins versus Man.

[Matt Bellany]

Of Steel and Amazing Spider Man. It's fine. This is not. People were not through the moon on this one. The. The Rotten Tomatoes score is good, but I don't think this is. If this had arrived out of nowhere, Like, I don't think this is a franchise starter. I think it's good enough. People liked it. They found it to be different enough and charming enough. The cast is good. Like, just take the W. I don't think we need to declare this to be the new Iron Man.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

This film was received in a way that will make people excited or interested in what comes next. And frankly, I am more bullish for Supergirl because of Superman than I would have been before Superman.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, well, that's a good point. People talk about Superman as this big hit, but it did less than man of Steel, not adjusted for inflation. In 2013, man of Steel did 670 worldwide, which would be way more than Superman.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

It would be. And my only defense, for lack of a better term for that, is reviews were better, word of mouth was better, buzz was better. And in 2013, man of Steel was basically being sold as the metaphorical Dark Knight, Part four. You had that going for it in a way that you didn't for Superman.

[Craig]

Also, it was a different time. Superman doing what it did in 2025 is more impressive than what man of steel did in 2013.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Agreed.

[Matt Bellany]

Man of Steel actually grows more internationally than domestically, which is not the case for this one. And you were more confident on this movie than I was. So you are going to get the.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

W in terms of launching a franchise. It had everything you wanted. Even noting the underwhelming overseas grosses, because nine times out of 10, when you launch a franchise, the ones that become franchises are the ones that over index in North America, not the ones that over index overseas.

[Matt Bellany]

Why is that? Because it's more reliable. You know you can repeat it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah, probably.

[Matt Bellany]

And perception wise, you've got to have that domestic in order for the US Audience to be like, oh, we get why they're doing a sequel.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, Smurfs. This one's bad. I had this as a 10 on the confidence scale. You had it as a 1. Your least confident budget? Almost 60 million worldwide. 110. Not great. Big loss for Paramount.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Paramount. I love you. I know you've been struggling the last decade because the bottom fell out on studio programmers. That isn't your fault.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, it is Their fault not having franchises and not bulking up in the 2010s when all the other studios bulked up on franchises.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

The only thing worse than trying to refurbish your discarded leftover IP is dumpster diving through another studio's discarded ip. And that is what happens. And this is not a surprise. And the only other thing I'll say is that budget notwithstanding, the original Elio still made more money in theaters than Smurfs.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, with a budget like three times as much.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Budget notwithstanding, in raw theatrical, a IP for the sake of IP can be no riskier than a long than an original picture.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, Disney didn't have to pay Rihanna. Also, what a grift. Man, that song was so half assed. And she made some appearances at Cinemacon, went to the premiere like I don't know what her paycheck was, but I imagine it was not cheap to get her and did not seem to help.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

No, and it shouldn't have expected to help. I mean Katy Perry only helped so, so much with the first Smurf movie back in 2011.

[Matt Bellany]

But Paramount seemed to think that Katy Perry helped because they went the exact same playbook.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

They were wrong.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, well, Brian Robbins, Paramount studio had the final kiss off to the new owners was Smurfs. So good for him. All right, Fantastic Four first steps. I had this as a three on the confidence scale. I was not confident, but you jumped me and went to a two on the comp. You were not confident at all. Budget was more than 200 million worldwide. 491. That is not a good result for Fantastic Four in my opinion.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yes, the film did make five. It will make 500 worldwide. It'll do 260 give or take. But domestic, this was supposed to show that the Marvel brand was still strong enough to push new to Marvel franchises and previously done franchises to at least phase two level box office, which is around 7,800 million worldwide. On the strength of the Marvel name, that didn't happen. This film will sell fewer tickets than the 2005 Fantastic Four. And it was no leggier than the 2015 Fantastic Four. What this means is that unless you're dealing with outside nostalgia, no Way Home, Deadpool and Wolverine, the Marvel brand is now a 4 fans only franchise. Which means you're not getting people that are outside general moviegoers that aren't already interested in Marvel in the abstract. And that is a terrible place for Marvel to be.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, especially when you got Avengers movies coming that are extremely expensive and are just throwing tons of characters at the wall. Maybe people don't care enough to want to see those characters again.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Well, yeah, not all of this is Kevin Feige's fault. I'm going to assume he did not say, I want to make tons of Disney shows, and I want to sell the lie that you need to watch them to understand the movies. I will assume that was not his doing. However, that's a huge reason why Marvel is in the place that it is. Because they oversaturated the brand. They turned it into homework. They wasted a ton of promising new characters and new storylines on the Disney shows that very few people watched. And now here they are where they are banking on nostalgia for 2010's Marvel movies and nostalgia for not Disney Marvel movies like Amazing, Spider Man, Deadpool, et cetera.

[Matt Bellany]

X Men. It's all on X Men now. They got to do something cool with that.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Who's going to give a crap about X Men?

[Matt Bellany]

I know there have been like seven movies.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Exactly. And now that the Marvel brand is no longer an automatic A plus cinematic vacation destination, it's just going to be another X Men movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Hopefully better, though. All right, moving on. Naked Gun. I had it as a five. I was not confident you had it as a 12 budget. 40 million worldwide, 88 million. So not a disaster, but not great. This did exactly what we thought it would do, in my opinion. I was not confident you thought it.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Would do more because I would argue that the marketing did the job in terms of this film will be funny and entertaining, even if you don't give a damn about Naked Gun. And I would argue the film delivered on that. Good reviews, good buzz. I think theoretically, if they do make a sequel to this, I'm not saying they should. If they do make a sequel, this has the potential to be a breakout sequel, which is the people that discover it down the line like what they see, and they show up on opening weekend for the next one.

[Matt Bellany]

You can't do a sequel at 88 million worldwide.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

No, I agree with you.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know. And I don't know what everybody going into this movie was saying, okay, this needs to do well for comedies to be released theatrically. I don't think we got a clear message that more comedies should be released theatrically here.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I think that was a very funny advertising campaign, and I'm glad they leaned into that. I think it did well enough to say we should keep trying, as did the next film we're going to talk about.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I was going to say, so I get that one. And then freakier Friday. I was very confident in this one. 14. I thought this might be a breakout. You were less so at 9. Budget around 45 million worldwide. 115. So this comedy did better than. Than Naked Gun. It was, you know, totally different audience. Millennials versus Gen X. And is this a hit?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah, it's got triple its budget, more or less because it's not done.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. So I win this one. So I get. I get the W on this one.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I'll give you that.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. So yeah, I mean, not much to say about this. I think this did about what I thought it would. I thought maybe it would get to 150, maybe a little higher than that, but solid little movie for Disney.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

If this is how Disney gets audiences re acclimated to showing up to stuff like Cheaper by the Dozen or Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, no Good, Very Bad Day, then great.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And 100%. Three years ago this would have gone to Disney.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Absolutely.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, final movie we did not assign our confidence scores to. But Scott, you volunteered that we should be keeping our eye on weapons, which I think is a big flex for you because obviously it's been doing well. Budget, 38 million worldwide is at 207 right now and counting. It'd probably get up to like 230. 240. Big W for you.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

I am two for two in terms of keep an eye out for this one because last year it was with us.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, it's not out of the blue. People were saying this one was good. And in all the coverage of the Warner brothers Mike and Pam drama, everyone was saying that people had high hopes for weapons. So it was not out of nowhere here. All right, so before we tally up and drum roll, the winner of the summer box office confidence scale, give me your studio winner and your studio loser for the summer. I have my picks.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Studio winner is Warner Brothers.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that's pretty clear. They had weapons. They had Superman. They released F1 even though they didn't make it. They released it for Apple.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

They marketed it.

[Matt Bellany]

They had final destination. Those are all hits.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

And frankly, if summer 2025 ends up above summer 2024 and it will be a nail biter, it will be because Sinners and Minecraft brought in about 180 million after April.

[Matt Bellany]

Right. So in May, the holdover of Sinners and Minecraft really helped the summer. And those are both Warner's movies.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Sinners alone made like I think 132 million, which is more than a lot of the would be tent poles did in North America.

[Matt Bellany]

So we agree on studio winner this summer, I think Universal actually did fine because they're two kind of not risky, but Jurassic and How to Train youn Dragon both kind of hit their mark, but I think Warner's is the winner. Studio loser. This one's easy for me. Sony breaks my heart.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Lionsgate.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you're going to pick Lionsgate just because of Ballerina?

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Yeah, it's Ballerina. Because they didn't basically had nothing else.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, well, they had some garbage late August dump movies that are basically for vod.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

The issue with Ballerina isn't that it underperformed is that with Michael says of 2026 and saw 11 in purgatory, this is it for them, you know, up until September.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they got the long walk, the.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Stephen King, to be fair, starting in September, they are getting their asses in gear and I am perhaps overly confident. Long walk, good fortune. How did you see me? Three Strangers Part two and the Housemaid, which is my second most anticipated film of the rest of the year after Avatar 3.

[Matt Bellany]

So you have Lionsgate is the loser for me. It's a race between Sony and Paramount. I'm going to pick Sony just because they had a couple of would be franchises that didn't really work. Karate kid. And 28 years later, they also had another one that we didn't even discuss. I know you did last summer that fizzled and we thought so little of it, we didn't even discuss it. And for a studio that considers itself still in the tent pole business to not have any in the summer is bad. Paramount, I think, is a close second because the only tent pole they did have, Mission Impossible, ended up losing a bunch of money. But they did, at least for market share, get up to, you know, almost 600 million on that movie. So they did have a high grosser. Even though Smurfs and Naked Gun did not perform.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

They were certainly a better studio for theaters than Sony and Lionsgate. And I have no nice things to say about Sony this summer because again, all three of their pictures were IP for the sake of IP that everyone should have seen coming. Yeah, how they did not have a Where the crawdads sing and or it ends with us type picture set for July or August is madness to me.

[Matt Bellany]

Right, yeah, they've had a history with those and yet nothing. Okay, so Craig, have you done the tally?

[Craig]

Yes, I have.

[Matt Bellany]

Who is the winner of the summer movie confidence scale game?

[Craig]

You guys were close on a lot of these, but based on how you kind of assigned wins and losses, Scott.

[Matt Bellany]

Won nine to seven, closer than I thought.

[Craig]

And the four movies that you guys had the largest gaps on in terms of your confidence was Smurf, Superman, Karate Kid and Naked Gun and you guys split those. Matt was much more confident about Smurf, so Scott won that. Scott was much more confident about Superman, so he wins that. Scott was was more confident about Karate Kids, so Matt won that. And then Scott was more confident about Naked Gun, so Matt won that. So the largest gaps you guys had, you also sp. It almost proves that this is very hard to predict and everything is a coin flip.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. And we were both super confident on Megan, Megan 2.0, which turned into a series we both blew.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Megan and I will argue I blew it on F1. You know, the numbers aren't that different, but I thought, gee, I hope this was great buy and it's the biggest grossing live action Hollywood original since Interstellar.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, well, I blew it on Smurfs. My confidence in Rihanna was just way.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

Misplaced, Alan notwithstanding, because dessert's got nothing to do with it.

[Matt Bellany]

True. All right, well, I appreciate the time, Scott. There is unfortunately no prize. There is no prize for the winner. Craig, can we get some kind of trophy or something?

[Craig]

You get the pride of winning the summer box office competition. Now walking around la.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes.

[Craig]

People will shout you out and congratulate.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. All right. Thank you, Scott.

[Scott Mendelsohn]

You're very welcome. Always a pleasure.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, before we go, I want to thank everyone that came to the live show at the El Rey theater in Los Angeles last night. Great crowd, really fun. Our secret, top secret guest was Adam Aaron, the CEO of AMC theaters, my part time nemesis, my very good friend, Adam Aaron. Good talk. And Lucas was there. Cool crowd. So that episode will post on Monday for the holiday. And until then, I want to thank today's guest, Scott Mendelsohn, producer Kirk Horleback, artist Jesse Lopez and I want to thank you. We'll see you next week.

[Bill Simmons]

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