The Town with Matthew Belloni — Episode Summary

Episode Overview

Episode Title: The Summer Box Office Report Card: Surprise Hits, Big Flops, and Key Takeaways
Date: August 29, 2025
Host: Matt Belloni
Guest: Scott Mendelsohn (Box Office Analyst, Puck)
Episode Theme:
Matt Belloni and returning guest Scott Mendelsohn break down the 2025 summer box office, revisiting their pre-season “confidence scale” rankings for this summer’s wide releases. They analyze hits, misses, and the broader industry implications, including Hollywood’s ongoing franchise obsession, original IP drought, the international market’s shifting role, and what this summer means for the future of theatrical releases.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Big Picture: This Summer’s Box Office Landscape

• General Consensus: The season was "boring," defined by a lack of mega-hits and fewer big movies in wide release ([04:04]).
  • Scott Mendelsohn: "There weren't enough major movies in wide release... There was not one or two super mega smash hits to sort of [cover] the spread of underperforming films" ([04:25]).
  • Matt Belloni: "No Barbenheimer type phenomenon... A bunch of doubles, not a lot of home runs" ([05:22]).
• International Box Office: Only one movie hit $1 billion worldwide, signaling international softening.
  • Standout: "Lilo & Stitch" was the sole film to cross the billion-dollar mark ([01:08], [07:14]).
• The Franchise Model: Franchises performed serviceably but without true breakout returns.

2. Film-by-Film Report Card

(discussed largely between [05:21] and [36:53])

Final Destination: Bloodlines

• Outcome: Success; budget $50M, ~$300M worldwide.
• Notable Moment: First R-rated supernatural Hollywood horror to open in China; "Apparently the Chinese love hot people getting murdered" — Matt ([06:07]).
• Winner: Scott’s confidence paid off.

Lilo & Stitch

• Outcome: Summer’s biggest (and only) billion-dollar hit.
• Key Quote: “I underestimated this movie. I am not a millennial. I did not have the nostalgia for it and I was proven wrong.” — Matt ([07:14])
• Winner: Scott (bet the highest on this one, giving it a 16/16 on the scale).

Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning

• Outcome: Did OK, not profitable due to high $400M budget.
• Discussion: Loss of China/Russia markets hurt. "It basically performed like a Mission Impossible sequel" — Scott ([08:34]).
• Will there be another?
  • Scott: “No.” Complete saga, not likely soon ([09:29]).
  • Matt: "I disagree... within five years, there will be another" ([09:40]).

Karate Kid Legends

• Outcome: Underperformed; $45M budget for $112M worldwide.
• Debate: Matt (not confident): "There will not be another Karate Kid movie for a long time. Nor should there be." ([11:30])
• Scott: Appreciated its independence from original; Matt wanted more nostalgia ([11:09]).
• Winner: Matt

Ballerina

• Outcome: Disappointment; $90M budget, $135M worldwide.
• Insight: Over-marketed as "wicked", missing what made it special ([12:04]-[12:26]).
• Studio action: Lionsgate fired marketing staff post-release.
• Notable moment: Extended joking about Ana de Armas’s fandom ([14:06]).

How to Train Your Dragon

• Outcome: Big success; $150M budget, $628M worldwide.
• Discussion: Universal succeeded in launching a live-action remake franchise.
• Scott: DreamWorks sequels often outperform; bullish for future ([15:15]).

Elio (Pixar)

• Outcome: Flop; lowest-grossing Pixar movie ever pre-COVID, around $152M worldwide ([16:48]).
• Root Cause: Disney’s schedule shuffling, possibly watering down the film.
• Key insight: "Pixar movies aren’t musicals... musicals keep popping up on the charts." — Matt ([18:46])
• Larger lesson: Both a Pixar issue and a film-specific failing.

28 Years Later

• Outcome: Modest $150M worldwide on $60M budget — less than hoped.
• Lesson: "Hollywood tricks themselves into thinking vaguely recognizable IPs are worth bidding wars... they're not." — Scott ([20:02]).

Megan 2.0

• Outcome: Massive underperformance; $39M worldwide, down from original’s $180M.
• Reason: Overconfidence in the “marquee character,” genre switch didn’t work ([21:51]-[21:59]).
• Key quote: "She did the Toonces the driving cat off the cliff here." — Matt ([21:36])
• Broader impact: "Scary for Blumhouse... not the brand it once was." — Scott ([22:49])

F1

• Outcome: Big international hit; $605M worldwide ($419M international).
• Significance: "A spectacular result for F1... this was an example of a film that kicked ass overseas." — Scott ([23:44])
• Apple’s Theatrical Future: Potential encouragement to release more Apple movies in cinemas.

Jurassic World: Rebirth

• Outcome: Strong; $850M worldwide. Down from billionaire predecessors, but hit expectations.
• Key quote: "I think it's a win. They can do more Jurassics with this cast..." — Matt ([27:02])

Superman

• Outcome: Good enough; $606M worldwide, seen as a successful reset.
• Scott: "This film was received in a way that will make people excited... for what comes next." ([28:22])
• Matt: “Take the W, but it’s not the new Iron Man.” — ([28:22])
• Note: Domestic strength is crucial for launching franchises ([29:24]).

Smurfs

• Outcome: Flop; $110M on $60M budget.
• Matt: "What a grift. That song was so half-assed. [Rihanna] did not seem to help." ([31:02])
• Scott: “Trying to refurbish discarded IP, dumpster diving through another studio’s leftovers.” ([30:30])
• Winner: Scott (least confident).

Fantastic Four: First Steps

• Outcome: Underperformed, $491M worldwide on over $200M budget.
• Scott: "The Marvel brand is now a 4-fans-only franchise... not a good place for Marvel to be." ([33:02])
• Reason: Oversaturation, Disney+ sprawl, loss of general-audience event status.

Naked Gun

• Outcome: Did about as expected, $88M worldwide.
• Matt: "Everyone said it needed to do well for comedies to be released theatrically. I don't think we got a clear message..." ([35:09])
• Scott: Good reviews, might be a “breakout sequel” if they make another ([35:04]).

Freakier Friday

• Outcome: Light comedy succeeded, $115M on $45M budget; hit with target audience.
• Scott: “Great if this re-acclimates audiences to smaller Disney movies in theaters.” ([36:15])

Weapons

• Outcome: Surprise over-performer, $207M and counting on $38M budget.
• Scott: "Two for two in terms of, 'keep an eye out for this one.'" ([36:53])

3. Key Industry Takeaways & Debates

[37:25] — Studio Winners & Losers

• Winner: Unanimous: Warner Bros. (multiple robust successes, able to keep DC and new franchises moving forward).
  • "They had weapons. They had Superman. They released F1... Final Destination. Those are all hits." — Matt ([37:27])
• Runner-up: Universal (for dependable successes, not risky breakouts).
• Loser:
  • Scott: Lionsgate — "With Michael says of 2026 and Saw 11 in purgatory, this is it for them up until September." ([38:28])
  • Matt: Sony — failed tentpoles (Karate Kid, 28 Years Later, I Know What You Did Last Summer), lacked a major summer hit ([39:39])
  • Paramount also criticized for franchise missteps.

Broader Trends ([33:16], [33:59]):

• Marvel is no longer a mass-appeal brand, now reliant on nostalgia and devoted fans.
• Original ideas and unexpected breakouts are increasingly rare.
• Studios are risk-averse, often resorting to recycled IP (Smurfs, Karate Kid) with diminishing returns.
• The domestic market is increasingly important for franchise launches as international grosses become less reliable.

4. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Matt (on summer 2025 as “boring”): "Kind of boring stuff. Did okay. Stuff didn't perform. Like nothing really interesting to talk about." ([04:04])

• Scott (on IP bidding wars): "Hollywood sort of tricks themselves into thinking these vaguely recognizable IPs are worth, worthy of a competitive bidding war. And quality notwithstanding, they're not." ([20:02])

• Matt (on Smurfs & Rihanna): "What a grift. That song was so half-assed. And she made some appearances at CinemaCon...did not seem to help." ([31:02])

• Scott (Marvel’s current status): "Unless you're dealing with outside nostalgia...the Marvel brand is now a 4 fans only franchise. That is a terrible place for Marvel to be." ([33:02])

• On animation & musicals:

  • "Pixar movies aren't musicals. And the musicals are the ones that keep popping up on the charts." — Matt ([18:46])
  • "That's what Encanto has in common with Demon Slayer—everyone's listening to songs." — Scott ([18:55])

• On Megan 2.0: "She did the Toonces the driving cat off the cliff here." — Matt ([21:36])

5. Competition Recap & Final Tally ([40:34])

• Final Score (Box Office Confidence Game):
  • Scott: 9 wins
  • Matt: 7 wins
• Craig: "Almost proves that this is very hard to predict and everything is a coin flip." ([41:10])
• Key Gaps: Largest prediction differences split between Smurfs, Superman, Karate Kid, and Naked Gun.

6. Key Timestamps

• State of the Summer, No Big Hits: [04:04]–[05:22]
• Franchise Update (Final Destination, Lilo & Stitch): [05:22]–[07:32]
• Mission Impossible Analysis: [08:20]–[09:40]
• Elio Flop & Pixar Discourse: [16:48]–[18:46]
• Marvel Fatigue Commentary: [33:02]–[34:14]
• Winners & Losers Recap: [37:25]–[39:39]
• Box Office Prediction Results: [40:29]–[41:51]

Conclusion: Episode Takeaways

The episode provides an in-depth, candid “report card” for summer 2025’s major releases, highlighting how even industry insiders can miss the mark in their predictions. It reinforces both the unpredictability and the franchise obsession of the current studio system, noting the increasing challenges faced by originals and second-tier IPs in breaking out. Ultimately, the episode is marked by its tone—wry, self-aware, and energetic—matching the creative and commercial volatility of the movie business.

To hear all the candid industry insights and banter, listen to The Town with Matthew Belloni, August 29, 2025.