← The Town with Matthew Belloni
Loading summary
Transcript107 lines
- [00:00]
A
This episode of the Town is brought to you by Netflix. Presenting A House of Dynamite from Kathryn Bigelow, the Academy Award winning director of the Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty. When a single unattributed missile is launched at the United States, a race begins to determine who is responsible and how to respond. Starring Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson, now a New York Times critics pick. Deadline raves. It's one hell of a motion picture achievement. Now playing on Netflix for your awards consideration. This episode is brought to you by Sentimental Value, which isn't just the must see film of the season, it's the must feel film of the year from the director of the Worst Person in the World. Joachim Trier's story of love, family and reconciliation is being hailed by critics as one of the best films of the decade, if not ever. Starring Renata Rienzveh, Stellan Skarsgrd and Elle Fanning in career best performances, Sentimental Value is a modern masterpiece. See it in theaters now. It is Wednesday, November 12th. A detail in the most recent earnings report from Fox caught my eye. Tubi. That's Fox's free ad supported television platform, or fast channel as they're known. It's now profitable. In fact, its revenue growth shot up 27% and viewing time was up 18% last quarter, according to Lachlan Murdoch, the CEO. And profit margins, he says, will now be in the 20 to 25% level. That's pretty big and it's a change from last April when we had the CEO of Tubi on the town and I grilled her about this very issue. The path to profitability in ad supported streaming, which we all know is the North Star now for these media companies. They're all struggling to compete with YouTube and Netflix and get real money out of these services. Tubi is now up to 2.1% of all viewing on connected TVs according to Nielsen, ahead of Paramount and Pluto combined, plus Peacock and HBO Max. It helps that it's free, of course. So it's not the same business model as these subscription platforms. A lot of it is licensed content, old shows on a revenue share model, and increasingly though, it's doing originals. Platform just announced a partnership with Kevin Hart's company and this morning they set new deals with YouTubers like Kev onstage and Big John, Dan and Raya. No, I don't know who those people are, but they are big on YouTube and they are sort of second tier creators with highly engaged followings that Tubi thinks can bring people to the platform where they start Watching other stuff and generate time spent and grow the hundred million monthly active users that the platform boasts. So it's a good time for a Tubi check in. We've got Anjuli Sood, the CEO back on the show today. It's how Tubi became profitable, the new creator push and the state of play in free ad supported streaming from the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. Okay. We are here with Anjali Sood, the CEO of Tubi and a returning champion on the Town. Welcome back, Anjuli.
- [03:00]
B
Thanks, Matt. Glad to be back.
- [03:02]
A
Okay, so we had you on about a year and a half ago and among the questioning I grilled you on the profitability issue with Tubi. I got some comments after you were on. I remember that Tubi gets all this great press, they're growing, they have this nice audience. But when are they going to be profitable? So you shot back this week. Your boss Lachlan Murdoch said that Tubi is now profitable. How did that happen? How did you get there Way earlier than people thought.
- [03:34]
B
Yeah, it's a big milestone for Tubi and I think a really good validation of our model. And the short answer is we got there by growing profitably.
- [03:43]
A
Well, okay, but how did you grow profitably?
- [03:46]
B
What's exciting about our profitability is I do think it's sustainable and it's because it's not coming from us cutting our costs, it's coming from us growing faster. So we've been growing our viewership and engagement faster. Our revenue is, growth is accelerating and that allows us to continue to invest in content and technology. But when your top line's growing faster than those investments, you get more and more efficient and therefore more and more profitable. And I think the underlying that what we're seeing is just we're 100% free streaming for consumers, there's huge tailwinds.
- [04:19]
A
There is that the economy, people are, you know, we see all this data that people are more squeezed on their expendable money, so maybe they're more interested in free.
- [04:31]
B
As streaming costs rise, it certainly helps us. But I think it's a broader tailwind. I think it's more younger audiences gravitating to free because that's how they're entertained on social media and in other platforms. And then also just the fact that if you just think about the value prop of streaming, if you have to pay more money and content continues to be more fragmented, the value prop isn't improving. Whereas in Tubi's case, we're Growing our content. We're improving our offering while remaining free. So our value prop just gets better and better and that resonates.
- [05:02]
A
How much did the super bowl help? Cause this was a pretty big deal. You guys livestreamed the super bowl and you had some shoulder content that was original around the Super Bowl. Give us a sense of what kind of bump you got from that big moment.
- [05:16]
B
The super bowl was a sort of unqualified success, I think, for everybody. For Tubi, we had 24 million viewers on game day.
- [05:24]
A
That's huge.
- [05:25]
B
It's huge.
- [05:27]
A
And did you get their. You got their emails? They. You signed them up, right?
- [05:31]
B
We did. And. And I think we've done a really nice job of retaining them. So the super bowl was. Was great marketing for Tubi. I also think we expanded the audience more broadly. It was the most streamed super bowl ever. And if you look at the viewers on Tubi, you know, we're 40% ages 18 to 34, half female. And so I think what we really did was we expanded the audience beyond just the hardcore sports fans who are going to watch the super bowl anyway. And we attracted the people who are maybe more interested in the super bowl as a cultural moment. And that's why we did kind of a red carpet before and we were more focused on sort of the fashion and the culture around the game. And it was a great success. And by the way, we're going to be streaming on Thanksgiving Day, the NFL Lions versus Packers game. So looking to kind of replicate that success.
- [06:21]
A
So does the NFL let you guys do whatever you want? Can Fox just stream every game on Tubi if they want?
- [06:27]
B
It's much more complicated than that.
- [06:29]
A
I imagine so.
- [06:30]
B
And no, that's not our plan and strategy. Live sports is not an area that Tubi is going to invest in on a free ad supported basis. That's likely not going to work. But what we are looking at is where are there games that are cultural moments where there is value in exposing and leveraging the power of Tubi's audience. And we can actually grow that audience, not just for Fox and Tubi, but for the leagues. And that I think is where you'll see us. Quite thoughtful and selective, but we do think it's a win win for everyone in the ecosystem when we can do that.
- [07:03]
A
Okay, so you guys just announced a bunch of deals with creators. You're putting creator content. I could go through the names. I don't know who these people are. Rock Squad, Kev on stage, the One Shoe. I'm sure they're Big Craig, do you know any of these people? I'm sure I do, yeah. But that doesn't matter. What does matter for the business is that you guys are going the creator route. It seems everyone here in the streaming ecosystem wants to be YouTube. They're going after creators. Netflix is going after podcasts. Like, is that the end game here? Everyone's just going after that YouTube market share of viewing time.
- [07:43]
B
It's not our end game. For us. We want to be free streaming for every fandom. And I think our approach is just when we want to super serve our fans, we need to be able to get them content, whether it's produced by a Hollywood studio, an original that we make, it's a digital first creator, it's an independent filmmaker. And for us it's about finding the fandom and then giving them more. And so you'll see like when we choose creators to work with, we're actually not focused on the size of their following. We're much more interested in is there a fandom that we know that is very vibrant on Tubi? They're looking for more content and are there creators that have super engaged, I would say obsessive fandoms. And so like we'll look for creators, which I think is different from others in the industry. We're not necessarily focused on the creators that are sort of the very tippy top of the pyramid. Right. That, that have these huge, huge followings.
- [08:38]
A
Well, you did have some Mr. B's content, but I don't believe that was exclusive.
- [08:42]
B
That's right, yes. We actually have 10,000 titles that we've added to the platform in the last few months of non exclusive content. Mr. Beast, Jordan and Salish matter like some big names you'd know and that's really important to us and is actually doing very well on the platform. But what we announced today and what you'll see us do more is more exclusives with creators where we just can see that they have a passionate fandom. And you know, these are people who are buying merch and they're in the comments and they're, you know, they're showing up to the events and there's real fan love. And these are creators who want more creative freedom. We're not trying to replace their business on YouTube. We're trying to augment and help them grow.
- [09:20]
A
And pay them, presumably?
- [09:22]
B
Absolutely.
- [09:22]
A
But do you pay them upfront or is it strict? Rev share?
- [09:25]
B
Most of what we're doing is rev share. I think we like that model.
- [09:29]
A
Yeah, well, it's very successful. For YouTube.
- [09:32]
B
Yeah. And by the way, I think that's going really well. What you'll see us start to do is we will start to expand, experiment with. Are there ways we can do sort of equivalent of a license deal? But in. In classic to be fashion, this is going to be not focused on. We're not. We're not a hits business, you know, and. And you're not going to see us look to do big, big deals, your volume business. We're long tail and we're proudly long tail. And I think what we do really well is we help every story find its audience, and we do that at scale and we do it with a flywheel that gets better and better every time.
- [10:05]
A
Yeah. And one interesting line in your press release about this creator deal said that you guys have seen that viewers who start their, what you call Tubi journey, meaning viewers who come to Tubi for these creators shows are retained stronger. So stronger retention if you come to Tubi for a particular creator's show. But doesn't that suggest that it is kind of a hits business? You're luring them in with this content that is a hit.
- [10:34]
B
What we're seeing is that people who come in to watch creator content are retaining longer on Tubi. They're watching more content. And what's really interesting, Matt, is that they might come in to watch creator content, but then they'll end up watching Hollywood studio content or, you know, a movie from an indie filmmaker. And it's really just our ability to personalize the experience for them, leveraging their followings. Yeah. And so. And by the way, that that also means that Tubi is doing. Doing a good job of exposing our audience to these creators. The other thing that's really interesting around what we're seeing, it's early on the creator side, but we're also seeing that the audience coming in, probably not surprisingly, is younger. They're more mobile first, and then moving to ctv. They're just behaving in ways that we think are very interesting and we want to invest in more and more broadly. I would just say we believe that creators are. Are gonna be the next generation of storytellers and talent, and they have a direct line to culture. And everything that we hear from our audience is like, they want that. And it shouldn't be at the expense of also some of the other type of original content or Hollywood content. And so what's most interesting to me is how these things can all come together and really sort of grow the pie for everybody.
- [11:48]
A
No podcasts.
- [11:50]
B
We just announced the number one true crime podcaster, Ashley Flowers to be will be distributing her video podcasts. And I think, you know, podcasts are interesting.
- [12:01]
A
Well, everybody seems to be interested in them now. Everyone except every pod. Except for the town. Nobody wants the town. We don't even do video yet. We will do video at some point.
- [12:11]
B
Then come then we should talk.
- [12:12]
A
Yes, exactly. No, Netflix does not want the town. They have a big deal with the ringer and no town.
- [12:17]
B
I would say it this way. We're not interested in podcasts because it's the medium we're interested in, in the fact that we have true crime fans who want more true crime. And there are plenty of different ways we'll look to bring them that. And one of them might be the podcast. One of them will be an original slate. One of them will be like all the different ways that we're going to bring that content to that audience. I think that's really what is driving our decision making on what to platform and what not to platform.
- [12:43]
A
Okay. Lachlan did say on the earnings call that the profitability of Tubi and the streaming division might mean that you guys will curb spending a bit. What does that mean?
- [12:56]
B
Practically, we don't have plans to curb our spending. So we did grow our operating expenses. We continue to grow our content and technology investments. And as I said, it's really more about just growing our engagement and revenue even more, even faster. And I don't expect that to change. We are in a market where there's just plenty of opportunity still in free ad supported streaming. I think we're just getting started. And I would actually say the interesting thing will be where do we find places to take bigger swings based on what we learn in the creator space. And so to me, the real thing will be how do we continue to get more efficient and more profitable while also being aggressive and ambitious in this market? I think we're striking the right balance and Fox has been very supportive of that.
- [13:45]
A
By bigger swings, you mean bigger shows, bigger originals. When we last talked, you guys were about to launch some originals. You had a Lauren Graham show, you had some other stuff. What's the data showing you about what is working and not working on the platform? Are these originals working? Generally speaking, should the talent community think of Tubi as a active buyer of shows and movies, I'd say originals are.
- [14:10]
B
Working well and particularly when they the way that we use them, which is again, it's not about being a hit and actually we're not looking to go significantly up in our budgets. But we are looking to do is serve those fandoms. And we do have hundreds of originals. You are going to see us continue to launch originals. Probably one of the most interesting things that has happened in the last year. So Luminate has this like top 10 streaming charts. 2B originals have shown up 17 times in the top 10 in the last year. And these are titles that I think most people would not expect would be on there. An example would be R.L. stein's pumpkin head is an original we did for our horror fans for this Halloween. We took a book in the IP of a book and we made a movie. And there's no marketing budget. It's, you know, I would say, you know, it's not what you would typically see in Hollywood that's organically making it into the top 10. Why? Because we're listening to our audience. We know what they want and then we're going and making it for them.
- [15:14]
A
But that's a hits driven business. It's kind of weird that you're saying, like we don't care about hits. Like that's a hits business. Looking for things that people want and serving it to them in very specific ways. Not just licensing 25 different catalogs and throwing them on the service.
- [15:31]
B
To me, that is putting your viewers first and focusing on fandoms. When I say hits driven, I just mean we're not programming for monoculture. We're not trying to find one title that everyone will like. We're saying it's a hit if the people who are passionate about that watch it, find it and watch it. Even if the number of viewers isn't massive. Right. And I think to me, it's not thinking about it from a quality or a quantity perspective. It's thinking about a quality and depth of engagement. And that for us is that's our model. And so that's why you'll see we will make a lot of originals, but they're not going to be, you know, things that are less so. You can have a list talent. They're not going to start in the box office. They're not going to have huge marketing campaigns around them. We will be relying on sort of the virality and the sort of organic interest from fans on social and on our own platform to drive that marketing.
- [16:30]
A
I wonder how the other Fox platforms play into this because we had Pete Distad on the show a couple months ago for the launch of Fox one. That is the new streamer where you can get the Fox broadcast channel and all the other Fox portfolio channels on streaming. How Does Tubi fit into that? Because I went to that presentation and I know they were selling Fox one, not Tubi, but it didn't seem like Tubi was that integrated into the Fox one experience. Is that on purpose, you trying to kind of keep these separate, or is one a funnel into another and vice versa?
- [17:06]
B
We're not integrated today and. And we're super open, and Pete and I are always talking about ways to do that. But I would say the role that Tubi plays within the Fox portfolio is very strategic, which is it's expanding the audience to that cordless, younger, more multicultural audience that's not traditionally on broadcast and cable. And that is ultimately, you know, you want to expand your audience. Advertisers want to be able to reach that audience. And that's really what's, I think, most interesting. Are there opportunities for Tubi and Fox one? Absolutely.
- [17:40]
A
Don't forget Fox Nation. Got to get the Kevin Costner Yellowstone national park documentary going.
- [17:47]
B
There are plenty, plenty of opportunities like that. And I think the more that Tubi does well at its strategy, the wider our audience gets, the better we can be about really thinking about which of those audiences that we do want to expose to the rest of the Fox portfolio. But what I can tell you is we will always start with what makes sense for the viewer and the audience. And I don't think you'll see, and I don't think this is sort of Fox's mo. I don't think you'll see us kind of force integrations or sort of synergies, if you will, when they don't make sense.
- [18:22]
A
This episode is brought to you by Starz's Outlander, Blood of My Blood, an epic tale of love, legacy and longing. Starring Hermione Corfield, Jeremy Irvine, Harriet Slater and Jamie Roy. Variety Rave's Blood of My Blood is lush, complex, beautifully shot and structured. And Los Angeles Times proclaims it's the ultimate period drama. Industry voters can access all episodes@starsfyc.com this episode is brought to you by Wayfair. Your home is more than a space. It's where you express yourself like, we've all got our movie night set up. I definitely do. I've got my chair, I've got my popcorn, I've got my nice drink area. Everything's set up perfectly. Whatever your vibe, Wayfair has every style for every home. They've got all your home essentials, storage solutions, decor and more all in one place. I recently got some great stuff from Wayfair. Ordered some nice outdoor furniture we got a rug that looks nice with the fire pit. We've got some flower stuff goes all around the outdoor barbecue. Very cool. Lots of entertaining this summer. Wayfair, big part of it. Get inspired with room ideas and easy to shop collections. All with everyday ways to save. Shop everything home@wayfair.com or with free and easy delivery straight to your door. That's W-A-Y-F-A-I-R.com Wayfair. Every style, every home. You are a very good spokesperson for your brand. But I wanna ask you what scares you? What scares you in the AVOD fast landscape right now or the streaming landscape overall?
- [19:55]
B
I'll say very honestly. I not scared.
- [19:58]
A
You know what I mean though? What's concerning? What do you consider challenges?
- [20:01]
B
I think the biggest challenge for us is surprisingly less about competition because we've been competing with huge players across Hollywood and big tech for many, many years.
- [20:12]
A
You go up against Amazon, you gotta.
- [20:15]
B
We've been at that game for a long time and like I said, I think we. I think we actually have. The power of focus is underestimated in this, in this industry.
- [20:22]
A
Amazon folded Freebie, that was your big competitor in the, you know, the free space at Amazon and they folded it into Prime Video.
- [20:29]
B
I think we may be one of the last pure play free streamers left and we love that.
- [20:33]
A
Well, Roku channel, right?
- [20:35]
B
Yes. Though I would say the Roku channel is part of Roku, which has an operating system and other aspects.
- [20:40]
A
I mean they've had big increases. You must be looking at those numbers.
- [20:44]
B
You know, very honestly, we don't spend a ton of time thinking about the competition. What I think about most is our own ability to just continue. To me, I see it as tailwinds are huge. AI is I think going to be an even bigger tailwind because you're going to see even more stories and storytellers that need to find an audience. And I think for us it's more like how do we make sure we execute and take advantage of this moment and the fact that we have the right model at the right time and how do we make sure we have the best value prop in free streaming? And for me it's making sure that we don't deviate from that, we don't lose our focus and we continue to put the fans first. I feel pretty good that if we do that, we will be one of the winners. And by the way, it's not a zero sum game. We don't need our competitors to fail in order to succeed. If our viewers win, we win.
- [21:35]
A
What about Pluto? They are a competitor of yours. They are under the Paramount banner. Paramount has a new owner. They're talking about supercharging it with the magic Silicon Valley fairy dust of Oracle and putting Pluto on the same tech stack as Paramount. Plus and having one big funnel that is going to dominate streaming.
- [21:56]
B
Consolidation is expected and appropriate, I would say, in a market that's maturing, but I don't think free streaming is maturing. And I would just say others are going to be spending a lot of time integrating infrastructure and libraries and to be. We have a window to just continue to focus and, and do what we do well and we'll look to take advantage of that.
- [22:18]
A
So why should a creator be on the Tubi platform rather than YouTube or is it just be everywhere and we're everywhere?
- [22:28]
B
It's the latter. I think our. As I, as I said, we don't want to replace YouTube. You know, I used to work at Vimeo. I've been in that side of the world for a long time. And I would say for us it's more that how can we be incremental?
- [22:39]
A
Yeah, that's a very different argument than what Netflix is making to some of these people. Like come over to Netflix and do it here and then we take you off YouTube. Other Although Rachel, Ms. Rachel and Cocomelon are still there. But like with the podcast push, they're want, they want exclusive stuff. So you're not saying abandon YouTube, you're just saying let's, let's expand your portfolio with something that is more targeted and can get you a new audience.
- [23:04]
B
That is the role we hope to play. And I would say, yeah, we're not taking a traditional studio approach to the creator economy. Right. We're not trying to own the ip. We want creators to own their ip. We would love if they put exclusive Windows or First Windows or first Looks or interesting projects on Tubi. And we want to work with them to make sure that they expand their audience and that they make more money. But we think we can do that. We're at a scale. We enjoy, you know, CTV streaming, CPMs on our views, which is different from social UGC.
- [23:36]
A
Those who don't know that just means you get more money, you get more money for your ads.
- [23:39]
B
Yeah, there's, there's more. There's multiple reasons why we think we can be incremental and help expand. And then like I said, we're also focusing not just on the creators that everyone else will be willing to, you know, to do Big deals with. We're interested in sort of that. That other group of creators as well. And how do we help them be successful and how do we give them a path to Hollywood? And I think if we. It's early and we will have to be agile and we will have to adapt based on what we see. But so far, the reception from creators has been better than we expected. And we are seeing some creators who are being quite successful on Tubi, even in the first few months.
- [24:17]
A
And what does that mean?
- [24:18]
B
Expanding their audience, growing their business, making more money.
- [24:22]
A
Yeah. Okay.
- [24:23]
B
Creative freedom to do stuff that in long form, that they maybe wanted to do, but is hard to do when you're optimizing for the YouTube algorithm. But how can Tubi be a place where they can creatively experiment as well and do more in long form?
- [24:37]
A
Oh, that's interesting. And what's the pitch to a company like, say, Kevin Hart's company Heartbeat, where you are a known Hollywood player? You want a digital strategy. You want to have a network of other either comedians or other talent that you want to elevate and participate in. How can Tubi play a role there that YouTube cannot?
- [25:00]
B
Yeah. I will tell you, it's not a hard pitch to be. Be. To be honest. And by the.
- [25:04]
A
Well, everyone wants a digital strategy. Everyone. You get fired as an agency if you don't have one for your big clients.
- [25:10]
B
You've got to make creators successful. And I think what is saying is we will bring the audience and back your vision and help you grow your business. And if we continue to demonstrate that that's true, we should just be a more valuable partner in the ecosystem. And again, everyone will win. But I would just tell you, I think the reception from companies like that has just been very strong and it's really been for us, more about listening to our fans and making sure that the things that we're doing are reflecting what they care about most.
- [25:40]
C
Anjali, in general, it feels like Tubi has a strong presence with young people and younger viewers. Have you noticed anything about the viewing habits and interests of younger people? And also your app, the Tubi app, you. You have the scroll. You have the TikTok like scroll of just seeing scenes from movies and TV shows that it feeds you, like Netflix and Hulu and stuff. Do not have that. Is that a deliberate choice because of your younger audience?
- [26:03]
B
So the trends that we see inform our product experience. We do see younger audiences discovering and deciding what to watch more on mobile and then going into the living room. That's why we have we call it scenes. It's like a TikTok like scroll that is working really well. And I would just say what's most interesting about younger audiences is they want everything. They love originals that are highly produced. They also love nostalgia content. I'll give you an example. Classic cartoons, huge hit among Gen Z on tubi. Whether it's Looney Tunes or Flintstones or Scooby Doo. But then we also see, you know, obviously they're gravitating towards creators that they see sort of in their digital worlds. So we've done a bunch of surveys with trying to understand what younger audiences care about. And I think like the bottom line is like they expect choice. Their definition of quality is much more expansive and includes things like is it culturally relevant, is it authentic, is this content that's sort of reflecting my lived experience just as much as it's like highly produced with recognizable talent. And then of course, they want all that to be highly personalized and free.
- [27:12]
A
Why aren't you guys making holiday movies? I think you guys could kill it with holiday movies.
- [27:17]
B
We debate this internally a lot.
- [27:19]
A
I guess everyone's doing cheap holiday movies, but I feel like your kind of lean back, you know, watch while I'm scrolling. Audience would be into that.
- [27:27]
B
I would say for us it's more about. We're making holiday movies. For who, for which fandom? Which, which. Which sort of group.
- [27:35]
A
Yeah. Who's underserved with holiday movies at this point.
- [27:38]
B
Yeah, exactly. But, but I will tell you, you know, we've got an exciting young adult original slate coming up. Actually, on Thanksgiving Day, we're gonna be premiering Sideline 2, which is. It's the sequel of a movie that we did based on a wattpad novel and it's starring Noah Beck, who's like a prolific creator in his own right.
- [27:57]
A
Yeah, you could do holiday movies with like teens and, you know, you have a big black audience. You could do holiday movies for the black audience. You could do like kind of niche, more, you know, more targeted.
- [28:07]
B
Yeah, we will be doing many more originals for those exact audiences, Matt. And whether they happen to have a holiday theme or not, you know, we'll.
- [28:16]
A
Debate Lohan, get Lohan to do one.
- [28:19]
B
But I would just say the opportunity is year round, so we'll take advantage of that.
- [28:23]
A
No, she's cashing those Netflix checks. Lindsay Lohan is not doing a 2B show.
- [28:27]
B
Never say never.
- [28:28]
A
You know, Never say never. You're right. I should not. I should not say that. All right, appreciate you coming on the show. Thanks for the Update.
- [28:34]
B
Thanks, Matt.
- [28:36]
A
Today's call sheet is presented by Peacock. From 1972 to 1978, 33 young men were kidnapped, murdered and buried under their killer's house. And no one was the wiser. The new Peacock original Limited series, Devil in John Wayne Gacy reveals the conflicting layers of Gacy's life while weaving in heartrending stories of his victims. The LA Times calls it a compelling story about one of the darkest chapters in America's crime archives. All right, we are back with the Call sheet. Craig. Yes, Another sponsor for the Call sheet. A serial killer show. And we've got another dead person topic. Michael Jackson.
- [29:13]
C
What a transition.
- [29:14]
A
What a transition. That's why they pay me the big bucks. They do not. All right, The Michael Jackson movie, which I have chronicled pretty extensively in my Puck newsletter, if you're not following this thing. It's been quite a saga to get a Michael Jackson movie made. They had a script. They had to completely shut down and reshoot the third act of the movie and change the entire thing because of a previously undiscovered settlement with an accuser of Michael Jackson in the 90s that said that they would never dramatize this accuser's story. And in the movie, the script of which I read, they did exactly that. They dramatized the. The accuser's story and kind of said that it was BS and his parents were just out for money. So that was all scrapped. They reshot it. They would like to make two movies out of this story. Graham King, the producer, I think, sees money bags here and knows that the global audience for Michael Jackson is huge. The music is timeless, and they see this as a huge play. But they gotta get through this first movie from.
- [30:24]
C
So a couple questions. Does that mean the script is now being cut in half to plan to film the second half that has a second movie? Or would the idea be they were going to write an entirely new second movie?
- [30:34]
A
John Logan, the screenwriter, he did Bohemian Rhapsody. He completely rewrote the script. So there's lots of stuff from the version I read that is not in there. Not completely. There's a lot of the stuff that is. It's more about the rise of Michael Jackson and his abuse of father, father and kind of his Jackson 5 relationships and ultimately his decision to split off and go solo. That's all there. The second script, which I am told they kind of have, but it's not greenlit. It's an interesting partnership on this movie because it's Lionsgate that's releasing the movie in the Us, the estate of Michael Jackson is the driving force here. They hired and, you know, have total control over this movie. Universal has international on this movie. And that is actually my prediction today, because the trailer dropped this past week, got 116 million views in 24 hours. Not surprisingly, the biggest trailer debut in Lionsgate's history. Bigger than John Wick 4, they say. And my prediction is that this will be one of the rare movies when it comes out next year in April, April 24, where more than 75% of the gross will come from international. It's gonna be huge.
- [31:52]
C
Yeah. I mean, this is like what you saw with Bohemian Rhapsody, right? A little bit. A lot of these big glossy music biopic stories do really well internationally with these bands that have global appeal.
- [32:01]
A
Totally. And it's very rare to get that number. I don't wanna make a box office prediction until we see more materials and, you know, but I think this movie could do for $500 million, potentially a lot more if it's good and if they market it correctly. And if there's not controversy, there's still swirling controversy around this. Michael Jackson is a tainted brand, especially in this country, due to the allegations against him while he was alive. The estate has made some settlements recently with accusers. And it is a radioactive brand in this country. Overseas, they don't care. They just don't care as much. And he's a much bigger figure. Globally, Bohemian Rhapsody did 76% of its box office overseas, almost $700 million overseas. So I think this is going to be in that ballpark. 75, 80% of the gross will come from overseas. And it could. I mean, that movie getting to $900 million is crazy.
- [32:59]
C
You saying 400, 500 million for Michael Jackson? I know we're post Covid in Bohemian Rhapsody was 2018, but do you think it has a chance to get that close?
- [33:08]
A
I mean, it has a chance to get a billion. Like, if it's good and, you know, they're showing it around town. I've talked.
- [33:14]
C
Antoine Fuqua is directing it.
- [33:15]
A
Totally. And I've been told the performance footage is amazing. Like this Jackson's nephew Jafar, who plays him, is a fantastic singer. And they will make the performances unbelievable. We'll see if the movie's good.
- [33:30]
C
It's one of the more bizarre setups in a movie. I mean, his nephew playing him. The accusers requiring things to be pulled from. So if the Jackson estate had almost full approval over everything that goes into this movie, I'm surprised that originally the third act had A plot around the accuser in it.
- [33:48]
A
You know why? Because they wanted it to, quote, unquote, exonerate him. The whole point of doing the movie, other than making money, was to sanitize the Jackson image and to show the world that Michael was innocent. And all of these accusers were just after money. After reading the script. That is my opinion after reading the script. But I have some reporting that suggests. And John Branka, the executor of the estate, he did an interview with the Financial Times recently in which he said, if you are not on board with Michael being innocent, then we're not interested in working with you. I'm paraphrasing, but he basically said that.
- [34:28]
C
Yeah, we need to do a lot more on this movie. We need to do an entire episode.
- [34:31]
A
It's going to be a thing. That's why I've been covering it so aggressively. This is going to be one of the biggest titles of 26. It'll be interesting where it goes in our box office draft because it has the potential to do $1 billion. I think it's going to be huge. I'm saying 4 or 500 million as a conservative estimate.
- [34:47]
C
I think it's going to do more than that. Do you think a second movie will be made?
- [34:50]
A
I do. Yeah. I do. I think that if they pull this off and, you know, the question is what that second movie entails, does it engage with the allegations? Do they take the lesson from the first one, which is, you know, basically just fan service, and just say, you know what, we're just going to have him play the hits. We'll reference this stuff, but we're not going to really get into it. Or do they get aggressive and try to say, okay, let's use the second movie to really, quote, unquote, exonerate Michael Jackson? We'll see, because that could be controversial. Today's call sheet was presented by Peacock. Devil in John Wayne Gacy, which Roger Ebert calls an important watch, explores the grief, guilt, and trauma of the victim's loved ones and exposes the systemic failures that allowed Gacy's reign of terror. The Hollywood Reporter says Michael Chernis gives an impressively unsettling performance as John Wayne Gacy. Stream the critically acclaimed limited series now only on Peacock. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Anjali Sood, producer Craig Horlebeck, artist Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this week.