Warner Bros. Is Officially for Sale. It's Paramount vs. ... Whom?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Warner Bros. Is Officially for Sale. It's Paramount vs. ... Whom?

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matthew Belloni (The Ringer/Puck)
Guest: Peter Supino (Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Wolfe Research)
Date: October 22, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the seismic news that Warner Bros. Discovery is officially for sale. Host Matthew Belloni and media analyst Peter Supino break down the mechanics of the potential sale, the likely (and not-so-likely) suitors, and the complicated future of Warner Bros.—with a particular focus on the strategic alternatives being reviewed by the company’s board. They explore the implications for industry giants like Paramount, Comcast, Netflix, Amazon, and Apple, and what could happen to the iconic studio and its valuable streaming and TV assets.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Warner Bros. Discovery Is for Sale

• Announcement Context: Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav has officially put the company up for sale, signaling a willingness to entertain bids for either the entire company or its components (i.e., splitting premium assets from "bad" cable networks).

• “Strategic Alternatives”: The board’s statement—reviewing “strategic alternatives”—is widely interpreted as code for potential sales of all or parts of the company.

  “The dreaded words that means selling everything now or parts of the company now or waiting until the split.” – Matthew Belloni (03:45)

• Tax and Timing Complications: If assets are sold before an internal split, buyers could face major tax penalties; waiting for a formal split may be more financially prudent but comes with a waiting period.

2. Asset Valuation and the Paramount Skydance Bid

• Rejected Bid: Paramount Skydance reportedly offered about $24/share (approx. $60B valuation, including $35B in debt); Warner's board turned it down as too low.
• Paramount’s Synergy Pitch: The offer valued all operational cost synergies at $3.1B, assigned to Warner shareholders, with long-term potential upside reserved for the buyer.

  “Paramount is giving the Warner common stockholder all the benefits of the synergies and really owning the thing for the possibility of, of more combined revenue over time.” – Peter Supino (05:54)

3. Possible Scenarios for Warner Bros. Discovery’s Future

• Two Main Scenarios:

  • Sale of entire company to a major buyer.
  • A split, wherein “good” assets (HBO, Warner studios, streaming) are auctioned, leaving “bad” cable networks as a standalone entity.

  “Are those the two scenarios here? Sale of everything or split and sale of studios?” – Matthew Belloni (07:36)
  “Yes, those are the two scenarios…” – Peter Supino (07:56)

• Likelihood of Each Scenario: Supino notes that parts could be sold separately now, but Zaslav prefers waiting to maximize value post-split.

4. Who Are the Potential Buyers? (The “Who’s In, Who’s Out” Segment)

Paramount/Skydance (David Ellison)

• Biggest Contender: Only logical buyer for all the assets, including less desirable cable networks; already deeply exposed to cable, so can handle the “Crapco” side.
• Advantage: Ability to bundle a holistic purchase if Warner’s board wants an all-in-one sale.
• Odds (Supino): 40% chance to secure the deal.

  “There’s one company that seems to be in a unique position to take down all that is Warner Discovery today, and that’s Paramount Skydance.” – Peter Supino (09:42)

Comcast

• Strategic Hiccups: Focused on spinning off its own cable division (Versant), making an acquisition tricky but perhaps feasible post-spin.
• Operational Fit: Would marry NBC Universal’s sports/films with Warner’s strength in scripted TV, but severe Trump-era regulatory/political obstacles.
• Odds: 25%

  “Comcast is not getting any deals done with this president, is that right?” – Matthew Belloni (14:42)

Netflix

• Awkward Fit: Clearly uninterested in “legacy” cable/networks. Might only want valuable IP, the HBO/Warner library, and not the distribution or cable sides.
• Potential Purchase Tactics: May bid to raise the price for rivals or consider an asset-stripping acquisition (absorb the library, kill the studio/theatrical role).
• Odds: 25%

  “For the right price, Netflix would love to own this IP. And they said it without saying it yesterday on the call…” – Peter Supino (22:23)

Amazon

• Dark Horse: Amazon bought MGM but integration has been challenging; could be interested, has the firepower, but appetite unclear.
• Odds: 10%

Apple

• Unlikely: Indications from leadership and business model make it a less likely buyer.

Wild Card Mystery Bidders

• Only “large corporate buyers” realistically in the game due to the massive size and debt load of Warner Bros. Discovery.

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Detailed Buyer Analysis

Comcast’s Complications and Opportunities (14:42–19:55)

• Regulatory risk due to Trump administration.
• Would have to restructure ownership/voting rights to placate regulatory concerns.
• Has the financial means if they can unlock value in NBCUniversal stock.
• No permanent CEO at NBCU—speculation about Zaslav being a fit (jokingly).

“If there was announced a merger of the companies that own CNN and msnbc, Donald Trump would go nuts.” – Matthew Belloni (16:14)
“In so many ways, time is David Zaslav's friend.” – Peter Supino (13:46)

Netflix’s Interest, Integration Problems (21:10–26:00)

• Netflix would likely shutter Warner Bros. as a studio, simply absorbing IP for its own streaming.
• Brand and integration issues: Netflix has always valued simplicity and its own brand rather than sub-brands (unlike Disney).
• Antitrust and industry backlash concerns if Netflix kills WB’s theatrical presence.
• Might just bid to force rivals to overpay.

“They're all about simplicity. Netflix is Netflix. They don't want it to be like, ‘come to Netflix. And then also you get the HBO shows if you click here.’” – Matthew Belloni (23:30)
“That would be a complete disaster for Hollywood. It would absolutely lose that Warner Brothers legacy theatrical studio…” – Matthew Belloni (22:05)

Amazon’s Potential Playbook (27:04–29:55)

• Previous MGM buy shows interest, but integration has disappointed.
• Unique model as the “shopping mall” of content; would likely view major studio as pipeline fuel.
• Political connections with Trump administration could smooth regulatory hurdles.

“Amazon's model looks to consumers more and more like the shopping mall instead of the store.” – Peter Supino (27:48)

Apple’s Reluctance (26:11–27:04)

• Lacks Netflix’s distribution leverage; doesn’t want regulatory or branding headaches.
• Eddie Cue essentially said Apple’s out, but doors never fully closed in M&A.

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The Board’s New Makeup and Bidder Reality (30:08–31:52)

• Recent appointments: Anton Levy, Anthony Noto, Joey Levin—all with strong acquisition backgrounds, suggesting board is M&A savvy.
• The board’s rejection of the $23/share bid supports the notion that at least one more “serious” bidder is out there.
• Only massive corporate buyers can play at this scale.

“Given Comcast financial limitations, I would imagine either Netflix or Amazon looks real. Yes.” – Peter Supino (30:54)

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Odds Recap (32:02–32:23)

• Paramount/Skydance: 40%
• Netflix: 25%
• Comcast: 25%
• Amazon: 10%

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Let's not whip out the violins for David Zaslav. All right, I understand. Like the money that he is going to make on this transaction after managing these assets for three years into losses that are way beyond what anybody thought. I mean, this company lost two thirds of its value under his guidance.” – Matthew Belloni (09:13)
• “Companies definitely think like this... Netflix would love to own this IP. And they said it without saying it yesterday on the call in the form of a non-denial.” – Peter Supino (22:23)
• “I want to make one point about the Warner Brothers board... All three of them come from financial backgrounds... These people understand M and A.” – Peter Supino (30:08)
• “The beauty of making a public prediction is that it'll either happen or it won't happen. And you can victory lap or you can, you know, hide in a hole when Jared Kushner comes out of the woodwork with the Saudis and buys Warner Brothers.” – Matthew Belloni (32:39)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:45] – Belloni recaps Zaslav’s announcement and the meaning behind “strategic alternatives”
• [05:40] – Supino breaks down the Paramount Skydance rejected bid and its valuation math
• [07:56] – Two major future scenarios for Warner Bros. Discovery explained
• [09:42] – Analysis of why Paramount Skydance is the “natural” buyer
• [14:42] – Deep dive into Comcast’s political/regulatory challenges
• [21:10] – Netflix’s official stance and speculative strategies
• [27:04] – Amazon’s motivation and “shopping mall” content strategy
• [30:08] – Warner Bros. board composition and M&A acumen
• [32:02] – Supino’s odds for each major bidder

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Tone and Language

The conversation is analytical, well-informed, and leavened with industry humor, frankness, and a dose of healthy skepticism about what Hollywood insiders claim versus what will actually happen.

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Conclusion

Takeaway:
Warner Bros. Discovery is officially on the market, but its sale is far from straightforward. With sky-high valuations, regulatory chess, company splits, and only a few real contenders, the process may drag on—much to the benefit of CEO David Zaslav. Paramount Skydance stands as the most likely suitor, but Comcast and Netflix are watching carefully, with Amazon lurking as a possible dark horse. Either way, the fate of one of Hollywood’s last great studios is in play, and the entire industry's future may reshape depending on how this high-stakes auction unfolds.

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Transcript

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Learn [e-mail] it is Wednesday, October 22nd. It's been less than three months since the Paramount Studio finally changed hands after 18 months of ups and downs and trump and nonsense and such. And now we're going to do it all over again. On Tuesday, our guy, David Zaslav, he sent up the bad signal and made it official. What we all kind of known Warner Brothers Discovery is for sale. Zaslav had wanted to wait to sell stuff until he split the company into the good side, like HBO Max and Warner Film and TV Studio, which he would run, and the bad cable networks, which he wouldn't. But now the board said they've received inquiries for all or some of the company and would review, quote, strategic alternatives. The dreaded words that means selling everything now or parts of the company now or waiting until the split. They could still do that. The caveat there is that if someone were to buy the good assets before the split, they'd incur a tax penalty. And if the split does go forward, there would probably be a waiting period after till a Deal could be beneficial for tax purposes. But the question begs, who exactly is buying this company? We know Paramount, the Ellisons, they've submitted two separate bids, the most recent for about $24 a share. The board rejected that as too low. But beyond the Ellison, it's still kind of an open question. Comcast, Netflix, Amazon, Apple. We've discussed these options before. All of them have upsides and downsides. Both Netflix and Apple have downplayed any potential bid. And remember, unlike Paramount, which drew a bunch of bidders when it was for sale, or at least people who said they were bidders, Warner's is a much bigger company. Most analysts think it'll go for about $60 billion. And thanks to its tortured history of failed mergers and acquisitions, it carries $35 billion in debt. Not something the average rich guy or publicly traded company could just pick up, unless maybe you're the second richest person on earth. So is this all noise and the Ellisons are just going to swoop in and take it all, or are these other bidders legitimate? The market clearly wants some deal to happen. The Warner stock at $20 today, way up from around 7 or $8. And the $11 it was at before the interest leaked in the Journal. So what's next here? It's pretty complicated. So we've got Peter Cipino on the show to discuss. He's a top media analyst at Wolf Research. He covers Warner Discovery, used to work at Allen Company. He's also covering some of the potential suitors. So today it's Warner Discovery officially for sale. Who's in, who's out, and how it all plays out from here. From the ringer and puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Peter Supino, who is managing director and senior analyst at Wolf Research. Welcome, Peter.

[D]

Thank you, Matt.

[B]

Glad to have you on the show. Because I want to talk about the potential Warner Brothers Discovery sale, and I want to do it from a little different perspective. We have been speculating, it feels like, for, you know, pretty much since this company was formed three years ago, as to who might buy this asset or these assets. I believe that the entire transaction that created Warner Brothers Discovery was done so to eventually facilitate a sale. And then they split the company into these two units of studios and streaming and then the Crapco TV networks for the purposes of either effectuating a sale of each unit or to create a more compelling narrative for Wall street when they do eventually formally split these companies. But now we have our guy, David Zaslav. Telling everybody that they are instituting a review of the assets to facilitate some kind of transaction. So can you just take us through what the like nitty gritty, bare bones machinations of what the next six to eight months are going to be like for this company.

[D]

So what's happened since? We've got news just this week that the board has turned down an offer between 23 and $24 a share, which was mostly cash. And it's, I mean it seems extraordinary. This Stock was under $7 a year ago and it was very recently trading under 12. And so we assumed $3.1 billion of operating cost savings from the combination. We put a multiple on those savings and assigned all of that value to the sellers. So in the math that got us to $24 per share. Paramount is giving the Warner common stockholder all the benefits of the synergies and really owning the thing for the possibility of, of more combined revenue over time, which is a real possibility.

[B]

And they would fire a bunch of people and save costs and all that stuff.

[D]

So that was in the 3.1 billion. The idea of saving on costs was in the 3:1. We credited that to the Warner common stockholders and Paramount owns it for the long term revenue upside and that got us to 24.

[B]

Okay. And that would value the company at what, about 60 billion?

[D]

Sounds about right.

[B]

Okay. Which brings up the topic that this is not cheap. Whoever buys this company or the parts of this company, this is not like the Paramount sale. These assets are a lot more expensive which necessarily limits the potential buyers. And we'll get into the potential buyers at the end but continue with how this could go. So we're going to have jockeying in the media and back and forth over which potential suitors might come forward. What Paramount is willing to up their offer to. Is this a all or nothing situation? Like is this where they are going to entertain an offer for the whole company or proceed to the split so that they can formally get rid of the bad company and then have an auction for the studios and streamers side and then potentially have a spinoff of Discovery exist on its own and, and have someone buy just the quote unquote good parts. Are those the two scenarios here? Sale of everything or split and sale of studios?

[D]

Yes, those are the two scenarios that can't happen before.

[B]

Someone can't come in tomorrow and say I'd like to buy HBO and Warner Brothers and here is a fat check and let's just do that.

[D]

We think that that can happen. So the streaming and studios business Definitely be sold out of Global Networks, and Global Networks would be a ongoing public company.

[B]

So that is on the table, the fact that they could just sell off the assets tomorrow and not wait for the split. But the more likely scenario is that David Zaslav, which the Wall Street Journal says he's in the fight of his professional life. He is trying to fend off the Ellisons long enough where he can effectuate the this split, and then he will preside atop studios and streamers and then conduct an auction for those assets. That is his preferred path.

[D]

It's a little bit ironic, or at least extreme to be calling this the fight of Xavid's life because he has a new contract with the company that incentivizes him for multiple transactions. He gets paid simply for splitting up the company next year. He gets paid for accomplishing asset sales of certain magnitude. So he's going to be fine no matter what.

[B]

Oh, let's not. Let's not whip out the violins for David Zaslav. All right, I understand. Like the money that he is going to make on this transaction after managing these assets for three years into losses that are way beyond what anybody thought. I mean, this company lost two thirds of its value under his guidance. I mean, it's kind of unbelievable that he has paid what he has paid. But that's a separate topic. Let's continue on to what actually will happen.

[D]

So there's one company that seems to be in a unique position to take down all that is Warner Discovery today, and that's Paramount Skydance. And there are a couple reasons for that, right? First, in for a penny, in for a pound, Paramount Skydance owns a whole lot of exposure to cable networks. And so they're a natural buyer of both the elegant streaming and studios assets that pair well with P and the studio and also the Krabco. And presumably, whether or not Paramount Skydance buys Crapco along with streaming and studios, eventually the cable networks businesses, excluding CBS at Paramount, will probably live in a different entity with different ownership than the streaming and studios businesses at Paramount. So their ability to satisfy the interest in a bundled sale, if it's meaningful to the board, is a significant piece working in their favor. Comcast is in the exact opposite position.

[B]

That's a key point because there was a Reuters piece a couple days ago talking about how the math favors David Zaslav. And the parts of the company, if they were auctioned off separately, might get them more money. But there's no indication that anyone other than Ellison wants to buy these cable Networks. I mean, Ted Sarandos of Netflix said on the earnings call, we've been very clear in the past that we have no interest in owning legacy media networks. Nobody wants that. And the potential for Comcast to want them is complicated by the fact that they are currently splitting off their cable networks into Versant. And Versant might be a buyer of this, but everything I've heard from the Mark Lazarus people on that side is that they actually kind of don't want that. They're trying to create a narrative that Versant isn't just cable networks. They have other stuff there. And to saddle them with even more of this stuff that doesn't seem like something they want, at least in the short term. And the Ellisons seem willing to take these networks.

[D]

Now, I'll take the other side of the benefits being offered about Versant's appetite for M and A, because the Versant cable network portfolio is pretty subscale and could have some really difficult negotiations ahead of it with cable and satellite distributors.

[B]

Yeah, they don't have a lot of sports.

[D]

Yeah, not a lot of sports. Not a lot of grp.

[B]

Although neither does Warner Discovery.

[D]

Just Warner Discovery. They do have a huge amount of GRPs. I mean, somehow the sum of all those just ratings, somehow the sum of all those, those networks at Warner Discovery adds up to something very significant to a distributor. And that's why they were able to have surprisingly placid renegotiations with their distributors after losing the NBA.

[B]

Yeah, well, they, they made some concessions there, I think, elsewhere. But yes, that was a surprise that they kept those carriage fees higher. But the trajectories on the Warner Networks even are not great. And they bought some college football and they have college basketball and they have some MLB playoffs, but they do not have football.

[D]

So Comcast financially would be a great solution and really a similar solution to Paramount Skydance. And Comcast has all the financial and operational reasons to behave in a way that's similar to Paramount Skydance. The difference, of course, as you said, is that Comcast is moving down this path of a Versant spin out, and it's imminent. Putting myself in the shoes of David Zaslav and the Warner Discovery board, there are lots of reasons to defer a decision to wait to decide who to partner with until Versant has been spun from Comcast. Because you'll have probably the same interest in an acquisition at Paramount, Skydance and Netflix, and you'll have one more flexible, well capitalized buyer at Comcast, and that's.

[B]

All you need is two Bidders to create a bidding war, according to Zaslaw. Yeah. And the added benefit is you're David Zaslav. You get to stay in the chair longer. You get to hang out with Charlize Theron and go to premieres and host parties at Cannes.

[D]

In so many ways, time is David Zaslav's friend.

[B]

Yeah. You also get to keep getting paid, you know, $30 million a year, the longer you drag this out. I know. Although, you know, he does get paid a lot if he does a deal. All right, so I want to get into the scenarios here with the potential buyers, because I have openly questioned who. Who these buyers are going to be. I think that the fact that Warner's put out this statement saying they have multiple bidders coming forward is a bit over their skis, in my opinion. I think that this could be like having a girlfriend in Canada or in the Niagara Falls area. Like, until we see who these bidders actually are, I think this seems like a lot of fluff. So let's go through the potential bidders because each of them, in my opinion, has a pretty big problem. Associated Comcast, obviously. Let's start there. Comcast is not getting any deals done with this president, is that right?

[D]

That's probably right. They are very committed to this Versant spin out and they're very close to finishing it. And it would be shocking to see them pause it and try to accomplish a transaction which required a change of course. Having said that, this is a really important transaction for Comcast and for Paramount. Skydance. Much more important than it is for. For Netflix or Amazon, which are the two other bidders I can envision.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, Comcast has Peacock, which is us only and is not scaled like. They are in real jeopardy here of being the odd man out in the streaming wars. And if Paramount and Warner's get together, then those are the players and Comcast is not a player.

[D]

Let's take that a step further. What Peacock is inarguably good at is NBC Sports and Universal Films. And what Peacock struggles with is scripted. It's television. And Warner Discovery is especially. HBO is wonderful at television and Warner has the most successful television studio outside of hbo. And so they're very, very complimentary. And we always say that streaming businesses should be compared to retail. And in retail, of course, you use milk to get people in the store frequently, and then once they're in to buy milk, you sell them higher margin goods. And Peacock has plenty of milk in the sense that they've got sports, but they don't have much in the way of high margin goods. The scripted entertainment that Netflix specializes in to sell. People who come in for sports.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. But the problem they have is the Trump stuff. Trump hates them. He blames them for msnbc, even though that's being spun off. He's investigating their DEI policies. I did see that Comcast made a very nice donation to the new ballroom at the White House that Trump is building. So maybe that is the overture to try to get on his good side. But if there was announced a merger of the companies that own CNN and msnbc, Donald Trump would go nuts.

[D]

Great catch about the donation to the White House. I hadn't seen that. Here's my vision for Comcast. First of all, Comcast has an advocate with the Trump administration in John Malone who is an established Republican. A potential intermediary here didn't help last.

[B]

Time in the first Trump administration when they tried to get the Warner AT&T deal done and Trump sued to block that.

[D]

It did get done, but I take your point that it was a painful process. And then the next step I see for Comcast is the option before Brian Roberts to surrender voting control of the go forward media company. I'm not proposing Brian would or should surrender voting control of the cable company. But if NBC Universal, with or without Warner Brothers, were no longer Brian Roberts media Company, but instead a shareholder driven media company of which Brian Roberts owned his 1 1/2% economic stake, Trump might treat that differently.

[B]

You think so? So you think there's a path that Comcast has for these assets? It's not just that they're in the game potentially to bid it up and make everybody pay more. That happened with Disney and Fox.

[D]

Yes, that could be Netflix's gambit. In the case of Comcast's interest here, I believe they're deeply serious. They haven't said anything, so this is just Peter's opinion. But the way they pursued Disney and Fox, in my view, was driven by the same appetite for assets and for scale rather than simply to bid up the cost for Disney. One more thing I want to say about this potential deal is that Comcast has an ability to pay for it, which might be underappreciated by some were Comcast to just issue cash for Warner Discovery at the valuations that are being talked about, the company's debt to EBITDA ratio, their leverage would approach four times pro forma. And that's a big number for Comcast, which isn't really growing very much.

[B]

Their stock's down 27% in the past.

[D]

Year, it's five and a half times EBITDA. It's seven times earnings. It's one of the 15 cheapest stocks in the S&P 500. So they're really not in a position to be issuing equity at that multiple, nor to be leveraging to four times, in our view. And so the alternative they have that they can act upon is to create an NBC Universal stock that could trade much closer to Disney because the assets are more similar than different to Disney. And Disney trades for twice the Multiple. Comcast nearly 12 times EBITDA.

[B]

Disney has much better theme park assets. They have much bigger television assets. The film studios, I guess they're comparable, but I don't know. Is that. I mean, you think they would trade similarly?

[D]

You're absolutely correct about the relative assets or the asset comparison. And our point is that somewhere between 12 times EBITDA at Disney and 8 times EBITDA at Paramount, Skydance, there's a level for NBCUniversal that is much higher than Comcast's current 5.5 times EBITDA. So that currency could be the unlock for Comcast in getting a real offer on the table.

[B]

It's funny because they don't even have a CEO of NBCUniversal.

[D]

Imagine maybe that could be David Zaslav.

[B]

That would be amazing.

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[B]

So let's move on to Netflix. Netflix has been pretty clear. Now, Greg Peters, the co CEO, he said last week that media mergers like this don't work out usually we are builders, we're not buyers. Ted Sarandos, as I said, said that they're not interested in legacy networks. The thinking is, is that for the Right product price. Netflix would be interested in just the studio. Right. HBO is sort of an awkward fit with them. What are they going to do with hbo? They already are the leader in streaming. They could buy the library of shows and put them on Netflix. But a lot of the value of HBO is in the brand of HBO and the ability to make new shows. And I don't know that Netflix even wants that. I think they would just want the library and they want the IP of Warner Brothers. They would shut down the Warner Brothers studio and the theatrical distribution. They do not want movies in theaters. So that would be a complete disaster for Hollywood. It would absolutely lose that Warner Brothers legacy theatrical studio unless they put some nominal movies in theaters. But the idea is that for the right price, Netflix would scoop up the Warner ip. You agree there?

[D]

Yes, Full stop. For the right price. Netflix would love to own this ip. And they said it without saying it yesterday on the call in the form of a non denial. Historically, Netflix has said that they think that M and A will significantly change competitive dynamics in streaming. They reiterated that yesterday, but they also moderated their stance and left the door open for a bid for Warner. Now the question which we shall be asking is do they really want to own it or do they just want to drive up the price for whoever buys it? I'm thinking back to historical events like you mentioned Disney, Fox and Comcast and the way those asset values spiraled. And I'm thinking of the 5G auctions and the way T Mobile bought very little from the C band auction and forced Verizon to pay a huge price. So companies definitely think like this. But again, going back to your question, I do believe there's a really strong argument for Netflix to own these assets, but they should be price sensitive about it because buying Warner Discoveries for Netflix is about is playing offense, it's not playing defense. They don't need it, but they are the most buyer of it.

[B]

Yeah, I've made this argument. I don't think they ultimately want it. I mean, yeah, it would be nice to have superhero IP and it would be nice to own that HBO library. But like that is just such an awkward integration. HBO is like the premier TV brand and to just buy it to ingest their shows and kill the brand or have to put it as like a tile on Netflix. Like they're all about simplicity. Netflix is Netflix. They don't want it to be like, come to Netflix. And then also you get the HBO shows if you click here. Like, I just think that's weird. And the studio for that price for Netflix to make a really significant acquisition like that. Are they gonna do that just to shut down the studio and take all the IP and take the library and put all the Warner films on Netflix? Like at least David Ellison is talking about running Warner Brothers as a theatrical studio. Maybe, you know, it would obviously just be a label under Paramount or a Skydance corporation as they call it, but at least it would be a going forward studio under Netflix. I think that that just goes away and that triggers all kinds of antitrust concerns. The guilds would go nuts, the theaters would go nuts. I just think that it's messy for Netflix.

[D]

It would be the town, not your broadcast. But your, your, your, your listeners would, would, would absolutely hate it.

[B]

But you know what? Ted Sarandos would get a very nice office on the Burbank lot. It's a beautiful lot. He could sit behind Jack Warner's desk like David Zaslav does and be very happy with himself.

[D]

Your point about HBO is an interesting1 because FX has existed and persisted within Disney as sort of a discrete operation, a boutique operation within a massive organization. And I think it really is reverence for Landgraaf and the way he runs that business, because that's awkward too.

[B]

And that's not Netflix's way. And Hulu gets away with that because Hulu is not the brand of Netflix. And Disney's whole thing is they have these different brands. Has Netflix indicated in any way that they want the Netflix brand to have sub brands like that?

[D]

No, no. The only thing that they've done that could rhyme with sub brands is the inclusion of a broadcaster stream in their French business. And they've said that they're interested in doing deals like that around the world, assuming success in France, so that they would have more sports content under local broadcasters names in a cost effective way. It's a different strategy, but it rhymes.

[B]

Yeah. Okay, so the others would potentially be Apple, which Eddie Q. Basically said on this show last week that he, they are not really interested. They did leave the door open. They'll look at everything but not, not interested. I don't see that as something that they would want at this point.

[D]

But there's an angle that Netflix has that Apple doesn't have. And that is permanently removing 17% of all the major movies that have ever been made in the United States from the licensing market. That's a competitive chess play that isn't really relevant to Apple because it doesn't have the distribution Netflix has.

[B]

Well, it could be Apple finally saying, we actually give A shit about this business. And here's how serious we are. We are buying Warner Brothers and putting all the movies on Apple tv.

[D]

Yeah, if they, if they want to. If they want to, if they want to go ahead and take that level of risk, yes, there could be a big change in Apple's business.

[B]

I just don't see it. And then anytime, anytime Apple buys something, it just puts a spotlight on them and the government will look at it. And they, they're, they're a phone maker. Like, I don't think they want to deal with that. So let's move to Amazon. Amazon is the interesting one here because they have shown an interest and they have a past history of buying mgm. I don't think the integration of MGM into Amazon Studios went as smoothly as they might have thought it was. I don't think they have at least so far extracted the value out of MGM that they thought they might. A lot of those properties were entangled. They haven't had much success adapting them, at least yet. So are they willing to jump into this and try to buy another legacy studio?

[D]

Amazon's model looks to consumers more and more like the shopping mall instead of the store. It looks like a place where consumers go and can really efficiently get what they want. Whether it's Amazon channels helping consumer access third party content, or whether it's the movie rental and purchasing store where when you're frustrated and can't figure out where the movie you want is, maybe you've already paid for it through a streaming subscription, you just give up and pay Amazon $5 to rent it.

[B]

I hate that. I absolutely hate it.

[D]

It's so bad. And it's a great business for them.

[B]

I hate it. It's Evil Genius.

[D]

That's the piece of Amazon video along with Fire TV that looks more infrastructure oriented and about which we think Amazon has a lot of confidence. The DSP that Amazon is building leverages off of that. It's much less clear to us how confident Amazon is in its ability to really win at scripting television. And they're playing offense in films for sure. The deal with Scott Stuber last year to recreate United Artists has real capital behind it.

[B]

They're putting 12 to 15 movies in theaters. The talent likes that and they seem to have that initiative for movies. And they just hired Peter Friedlander from Netflix and seems like they're at least making moves to improve the TV product. And they have had hits. So I'm not talking about their ability to do entertainment content. I'm talking about their ability to Go after another studio and potentially integrate that into their existing infrastructure there. Like, are they serious bidders here?

[D]

I wouldn't count them out. We don't cover Amazon, and nobody running their studio tells me what their strategy is. But to your point, they're in all the areas that would inform a bid. And it's also true, it's famous now that they've struggled with the integration of mgm. And they paid a high multiple for it. They paid 18 times EBITDA for it.

[B]

It was like 7.4 billion, I believe, was the price.

[D]

That's right.

[B]

And they also have the Trump administration's ear. Bezos is friendly. They spend $40 million on a Melania documentary. Maybe if they throw Barron or Don Jr. A bone and do documentaries about them, Trump will bless them. The acquisition of Warner Brothers.

[D]

I want to make one point about the Warner Brothers board. Last January, at a time when Warner Brothers was restructuring their company and their debts to make themselves flexible to do a transaction like you and I are talking about today. Warner Brothers also appointed two serious board members. Three, actually. Anton Levy, Anthony Noto and Joey Levin. And all three of them come from financial backgrounds. Anton Levy was a partner at General Atlantic. Anthony Noto did my job at Goldman Sachs a long time ago, covering Internet, actually, and was CFO of the NFL and CEO of SoFi. And then Joey Levin was on the IAC board and was CEO of IAC. And that's a very acquisitive company. So these people understand M and A. And I think the fact that the Warner board is now constituted in this improved way and turned down that 23 or something bid from Paramount, Skydance indicates that there's at least one more player who's very serious. And it would surprise me if that were only Comcast. Given Comcast financial limitations, I would imagine either Netflix or Amazon looks real. Yes.

[B]

You think that Amazon or Netflix is real?

[D]

One of them must be.

[B]

Or is there some mystery buyer out there that we don't know about? Like, again, this is not Paramount. This is not the kind of thing where Byron Allen or Barry Diller can just say, oh, I'm interested. Like, this is a $60 billion asset here. You can't just claim that you want this. Only entities are people with real money.

[D]

Yeah. Factoring in the global networks business and all the debt, it's even more than 60 billion. So, yes, these are just large corporate buyers.

[B]

All right, so we love to put percentages and gambling odds on these things. So give me your odds. What are the odds of Paramount getting this asset?

[D]

40%.

[B]

40%. Okay. What are the odds of Netflix getting it?

[D]

25%.

[B]

Oh, that's high. That's much higher than I would say. I think they are not serious. How about Comcast?

[D]

25%.

[B]

All right, and then Amazon?

[D]

Amazon is the 10% dark horse. Yes.

[B]

All right, well, appreciate that. We will check that. The beauty of making a public prediction is that it'll either happen or it won't happen. And you can victory lap or you can, you know, hide in a hole when Jared Kushner comes out of the woodwork with the Saudis and buys Warner Brothers.

[D]

You just described being a Wall street analyst.

[B]

Yes, exactly. I know you guys all dunk on each other when you're right and wrong. All right, thank you very much, Peter. Appreciate it.

[D]

My pleasure. Thanks, Matt.

[B]

All right, we are back with the call sheet. Craig, where are you on Jeremy Allen White playing Bruce Springsteen?

[G]

I like Bruce Springsteen. I would not say I'm a die hard fan or anything like that. And I like Jeremy Allen White. I don't want to poo poo anything he's doing, but for some reason, there's something about this movie that struggles to interest me.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, we're going to the premiere tonight, actually.

[G]

Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[B]

Yes. Neither of us has seen this movie. I agree. You know, I feel like it's premiered like 10 times now. Like Springsteen, man, he's going to all of them. He's doing. He's making the world tour at his premieres of his own movie. But. Yeah. Well, I want to reserve judgment, but I was a little skeptical. The performance stuff in the trailer looks good, but I don't know. Apparently it's a movie about depression and very different from the Bob Dylan movie.

[G]

I did hear that Jeremy Allen White was. Is very good in it. Playing Bruce.

[B]

Exactly. All right, so we're going to get to the tracking. First, a little accountability from last week. I took the over on 25 for Black Phone 2 and I hit it. Came in at 27. So I'll take that. W for me, L for Craig.

[G]

Another win for Ethan Hawke as the grabber.

[B]

Yes. Never bet against Ethan Hawke in a random Blumhouse movie. All right, so let's get to the tracking. It's interesting. There's three movies this weekend, including Springsteen, that are all tracking for about 10 million at the box office. It's Deliver Me From Nowhere. That's the Springsteen movie. It's a movie called Chainsaw man, which is a Sony anime R rated movie. And then there is Regretting youg which is a very poorly reviewed Colleen Hoover adaptation starring Dave Franco and Allison Williams. Let's do all three. I think Chainsaw man is going to be the number one. I'm going to take the over on 10 million for Chainsaw Man. R rated anime. I think like the audience for that is underestimated by these tracking services. I think it's going to come in above that. And then I'll take the under on both Springsteen and regretting you.

[G]

I have no thoughts on Chainsaw Man. I agree with you.

[B]

You don't?

[G]

No. I'm abstaining from Chainsaw man predictions. I agree with you about the Springsteen movie. I mean, it's kind of oversimplified to compare it to a complete unknown, but they are similar. And that movie opened to 11 on a three day and that had Timothee Chalamet doing two months of the most unbelievable press tour you've ever seen. And Bob Dylan's a bigger star.

[B]

Oh, is he?

[G]

Well, he's. He's sold twice as many albums in his career, but he's also put out more albums. But yeah, their Spotify monthly listeners are very similar. I think Bruce Springsteen might appeal to a more broad audience.

[B]

I have no data here. I am going by my gut that Springsteen is slightly bigger than Bob Dylan, but the Chalamet factor. I mean, Jeremy Allen White, great actor but is a TV star. So the struggle for making this feel theatrical, I think is what will keep it under 10.

[G]

Yeah, I think I agree.

[B]

And then regretting you. The less said about that movie, the better.

[G]

Oh, man.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Love Dave Franco, though. Big, big Dave Franco fan.

[G]

Because this movie is a romance, not a rom com.

[B]

No, it's a Colleen Hoover. So it's got like complications and death and struggles and all of that.

[G]

And I think pure romance dramas are tough theatrically. I mean, we saw what happened with a big, bold, beautiful journey.

[B]

Yes. Although, you know, the last one, it ends with us, but that one had a little bit of a added drama off camera that got attention for it. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest Peter Supino, producer Greg Horbeck, artist Jesse Lopez and I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this week.

[C]

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