Why Attendance Tells a Better Story Than Box Office

Summary

Podcast Summary:

The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: Why Attendance Tells a Better Story Than Box Office
Date: July 2, 2026
Host: Matthew Belloni
Guest: Steve Buck, Chief Strategy Officer & Co-Founder, Intelligence
Producer: Craig Horlbeck
Main Theme:
Examining why movie attendance metrics provide a richer, potentially more accurate view of theatrical movie health than traditional box office revenue, and what current attendance data reveals about evolving audience behavior, demographics, format preferences, and industry trends.

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Episode Overview

Matthew Belloni sits down with Steve Buck of Intelligence, an analytics firm, to discuss in depth the concept that movie theater attendance figures (“butts in seats”) tell a different – sometimes more meaningful – story about the health and prospects of the theatrical movie business than box office revenue alone. The conversation covers why attendance should matter more to Hollywood, pandemic impacts, who’s going to the movies now, surprising demographic and genre shifts, and how long the big-screen experience might remain central to film consumption.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Attendance vs. Box Office (03:08–07:12)

• Attendance ≠ Box Office

  • Steve Buck emphasizes: “Attendance is never going to replace box office as a unit of measurement... but attendance has its own place when you think about the entirety of the ecosystem.” (03:31)
  • Hollywood’s historic focus on box office is partly due to its manipulability via price increases and premium formats (3D, IMAX).
  • Attendance, by contrast, gives a true sense of reach—who is actually watching the film and engaging with pre-show ads/content.

• Historical Stability

  • Buck disputes the idea of a smooth, steady decline: “The reality is what we've seen at Intelligence... attendance was actually rather stable [pre-pandemic].” (05:40)
  • From ~2005 to 2019, annual US attendance hovered around 1.1–1.2B tickets.

2. Post-COVID Spikes & What’s Driving Growth (07:16–10:34)

• Return to Normalcy

  • Steve Buck: “We're finally at a sense of normalcy… there's constant product coming out to the theater.” (08:04)
  • Theaters have gotten more creative—e.g., events (sports screenings) are boosting box office.

• Ticket Prices & Inflation

  • “Believe it or not, [ticket prices are] in line with inflationary rates... it was 10% [increase], but inflation was 10%.” (07:16)

• Impact of New Content

  • Gen Z and younger demos are reactivating, with horror and certain animation titles (e.g., “Backrooms,” “Obsession,” “Michael”) having strong, extended runs.

3. Demographic Trends & Genre Shifts (10:34–12:32)

• Age Groups

  • Under 13s: 12% of attendance this year (vs. 13% in 2025)—essentially stable.
  • Over 60s: 6% vs. 5%—again stable. Buck: “It’s not necessarily that there’s a new age group that’s been activated... different age groups are finding different areas of interest.” (10:34)

• Genres Performing Well

  • Action is underperforming; horror, animation, and comedies are up.
  • Buck cautions against seeing yearly surges as conclusive: “We always want to look at these things... over like a 12 month, 18 month period.” (11:46)

4. The Impact of Release Windows (12:32–14:31)

• Longer Windows Matter

  • Buck notes that movies with long theatrical exclusivity tails (“Backrooms,” “Obsession,” “Michael”) are benefiting attendance.
  • “Absolutely. The longer the better,” Buck admits re: windowing (13:47), with nearly 90% of a film’s audience showing up within the first 30 days (13:55).

• Marketing Opportunity

  • “Movies should really say this will not be on streaming for five months. So you need to come to the theater.” – Craig Horlbeck (14:38)

5. Political Demographics – Blue vs. Red Counties (17:47–19:48)

• Attendance Skews Blue Largely Due to Urbanization
  • 61% of moviegoers in blue counties, 39% in red. Buck: “Think about the big cities... [they] lean blue... heavy, heavy movie-going markets...” (18:03)
  • There are pops in red areas for certain titles (e.g., “Melania”); controversial films like “Snow White” showed no real partisan difference in attendance—if a film fails, it's universal (19:48).

6. Premium Formats & Appointment Viewing (20:43–22:49)

• PLF (Premium Large Formats)

  • 16% of attendance is on premium screens; this has remained consistent post-pandemic.
  • PLF increases box office totals without increasing actual bodies in seats. (21:29–21:50)

• Appointment Viewing

  • The old habit (“go to the movies and pick something”) is gone; people plan specifically for films now—often booking online in advance.

7. Rating & Genre Breakdown (22:49–25:00)

• R Rated Films Up, But Consistent

  • 33% of attendance is R-rated, 35% PG-13, and 28% PG—similar to last year.
  • Family films (animation) “still are dominant and critical to box office.” (23:54)

• Comedy’s Comeback

  • Comedy is up, largely thanks to crossover horror-comedies.

8. Geographic Bright Spots & Industry Strategies (26:06–27:56)

• Big Cities Lead

  • LA and New York continue to dominate, driving most theatrical business (26:10).

• Experiential Trends

  • Investment in premium formats and unique experiences (70mm, IMAX) is invigorating audiences beyond standard viewings.
  • Theaters and studios are collaborating to make going to the movies more of an event.

9. Outlook: Optimism with Caveats (27:56–31:27)

• Fundamental Shift in Consumer Behavior

  • The necessity for proactive audience “activation”: “You’ve got to convince people to go to a theater... a very different business case [from before].” (28:06)

• Impact on Theater Revenue

  • Advertising has become increasingly important; measuring true audience reach (not just box office) is vital because of trailer/ad monetization (29:16).

• Attendance Projections

  • 349 million attendees in the first half of 2026; on track for ~760 million by year’s end, highest since the pandemic but still off from the 1.1–1.2 billion pre-pandemic. (30:25–31:25)
  • “Movie going is not going the way of the bowling alley. It's still a popular activity.” – Steve Buck (29:36)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the core difference:
  “Theatrical, historically, was the only part of [entertainment] that was never measuring impressions or eyeballs... What we're doing in Intelligence is translating what's happening in the theater into attendance.” – Steve Buck (03:31)

• On ticket price myths:
  “Believe it or not, [ticket prices are] in line with inflationary rates... when I looked at the data recently... there was an average ticket price increase of about 10%. But again, look at the inflation rate. It was 10%.” – Steve Buck (07:16)

• On post-pandemic moviegoing:
  “We're finally at a sense of normalcy... The strikes are now gone... There's constant product coming out to the theater.” – Steve Buck (08:04)

• On age demographic changes:
  “It's not necessarily that there's a new age group that's been activated... I think what's happening is the different age groups are finding the different areas of interest.” – Steve Buck (10:34)

• On windowing marketing ideas:
  “Movies should really say this will not be on streaming for five months. So you need to come to the theater.” – Craig Horlbeck (14:38)

• On political/cultural narratives:
  “When we were looking at Melania... we obviously have film that's going to lean red. We saw more of a 50-50 split... But, when we were looking at the data [for Snow White], it didn't matter. People didn't care. It was doing great actually in red zones.” – Steve Buck (18:40, 19:37)

• On comedy’s resurgence:
  “Comedy is up to 11% of attendance this year. That was 4% last year.” – Matt Belloni (24:32)

• On the optimism at CinemaCon 2026:
  “The 2026 CinemaCon, I think was the most optimistic that I felt... I am bullish... Movie going is not going the way of the bowling alley.” – Steve Buck (29:36)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------|:-------------:| | Why attendance matters | 03:08–05:40 | | Pre-pandemic attendance stability | 05:40–06:27 | | Ticket price & inflation | 07:09–07:43 | | What’s driving attendance now | 08:04–09:31 | | Genre/demographic shifts | 09:31–12:32 | | Impact of release windowing | 12:32–14:31 | | Political (Blue vs. Red counties) | 17:47–19:48 | | Premium Large Format/appointment viewing| 20:43–22:49 | | Genre/rating breakdown | 22:49–25:00 | | Geographic & experiential highlights | 26:06–26:50 | | Business outlook and attendance trends | 27:56–31:27 |

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Final Takeaways

• While Hollywood traditionally obsesses over box office numbers, actual admissions offer a more honest picture—accounting for inflation, premium surcharges, and changes in behavior.
• Post-pandemic attendance is recovering, driven by genre diversity (horror, animation, comedy), longer theatrical exclusivity windows, and new marketing/event strategies.
• Urban (blue) markets dominate attendance, but content can create regional “pops.”
• Theatrical isn’t dying: The business is more about creating can’t-miss, planned experiences and less about casual moviegoing.
• Theaters and studios are experimenting with formats and content—optimism is justified, but pre-2020 levels are still distant.

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This episode delivers an insightful, data-driven pulse-check for anyone interested in the business realities and evolving cultural landscape of moviegoing in 2026.

Transcript

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[Steve Buck]

Thanks for having me, Matt.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, before we start in on this, I find your data super interesting. I love looking at the attendance numbers and how you break down who's going to movies, what demos, where, how much they're paying, et cetera, et cetera. Tell us why the attendance metric is important when you're looking at movies and why it may even be more important than box office.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah. One, attendance is never going to replace box office as a unit of measurement. I'm going to be clear about that. But intendence has its own place when you think about the entirety of the ecosystem. Theatrical, historically, was the only part of it that was never measuring impressions or eyeballs. Whether it was DVD transactions, it was linear television. It's always measured in impressions or eyeballs. What we're doing in Intelligence is translating what's happening in the theater into attendance. And the reason that becomes so important is really for a better understanding of the overall reach of the content, whether it's the film itself, understanding what is the franchise capabilities, whether or not it's the ads that are occurring before the theater. We want to understand how many people are actually seeing those ads. So attendance has a. Has a really important place in the ecosystem itself.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I find the numbers compelling. Like when Adam Aaron, our friend at AMC, he'll sometimes tweet, you know, 4 million people went and saw this movie in our theaters this week. And that's a pretty impressive stat that you're getting like that many people out of their house into a theater to see a particular title in a weekend. It'd be like if you were look at the Nielsen charts and be like, oh, yeah, Stranger Things was delivered $2 billion in revenue to Netflix. Like, you don't see those numbers. You see, Stranger Things delivered X amount of millions of viewers, and it's, it's worthwhile knowing that number and discussing it for movies.

[Steve Buck]

We want more people going to the theater. Right? We, we, of course, we want more box office. Box office translates to revenue. Revenue, you know, lines the pockets. We, we, we appreciate that, but the reality is, in order to grow, that we have to understand how many people are walking through the door.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And I think the reality is, is that Hollywood has focused on box office because that is more manipulable. You know, you can raise prices and the box office will go up. You are subject to inflation, and you can compare this year's grosses to grosses from 10 years ago without discussing the fact that inflation has given those prices a big boost. And it's kind of not the same. So if you're comparing attendance to attendance from 10 years ago, maybe it's not going to be as flattering.

[Steve Buck]

That's right. And also the formats, too, on top of that. Right. Well, Is there a 3D upcharge? Is there a premium format upcharge, whatever that may be? How many people are actually going to the theater? That's going to matter to measuring the overall moviegoers. One quick note, though. You share the decline of attendance since 2002, the reality is what we've seen at Intelligence, the data from the 15 years prior to the pandemic, attendance was actually rather stable. So I often refute that argument.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay. Because you see all these charts that people put out that are like, oh, you know, Everything peaked in 2002. Spider man was the last year that everybody went to the movies. And then per capita, the number of movies people see per year has declined and the overall attendance has declined. But you're saying it's been somewhat steady.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, I'd say the 15 years prior to the pandemic, anywhere between 1.1 and 1.2 billion attendees went to the theater. Okay. Some years was up, some years was down. But from all intents and purposes, it was about 1.15 billion tickets were sold.

[Matt Bellany]

Let's get into why attendance matters here. Because obviously the narrative has been that ticket price increases and the format changes and everything has padded the industry at the expense of its customers and essentially is propping it up by making it more expensive to go to movies. You note that the average movie price domestically this year was $13.47 for an

[Steve Buck]

adult, an adult published ticket price.

[Matt Bellany]

And despite that, the numbers are up this year. So what is fueling that?

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, well, one thing about ticket pricing, it's actually, believe it or not, it's in line with inflationary rates. A lot of people don't recognize that. So whether it's eggs or gas or housing or cars, whatever it may be, is actually in line. So, yes, it's been an increase. I think when I looked at the data recently comparing this to 2023, there was a average ticket price increase of about 10%. But again, look at the inflation rate. It was 10%.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so you'd argue that the inflation adjusted number has not gone up that much. Covid decimated the attendance number.

[Steve Buck]

That's right.

[Matt Bellany]

And it has crept up a little bit each year since then. And now we see it spiking. What about this year is causing it to spike?

[Steve Buck]

I think we're finally at a sense of normalcy, honestly, within the box office. We had these sort of starts and stops since the pandemic. Whether it was Spider man, no Way Home, whether it was Top Gun, whether it was Barbenheimer. We're finally at this normal pace. The days of checkerboard seating and alternating rows for social distancing are gone. And we've just. We put all that stuff in the rearview mirror. The strikes are now gone. That obviously was an impact that slowed things down the other year. But now we're finally at a pace where there's constant product coming out to the theater. And beyond that, I think the theaters are getting a little bit more creative. We released the stat the June 12th weekend. There was literally a million dollars in box office activity around sports. FIFA, ufc, NBA playoffs. So they're getting a little bit more creative.

[Matt Bellany]

But is it just the movies? Is it just the number of movies is up and the studios seem to be having more appealing product? And the superhero fatigue that has dragged down things over the past couple of years is being replaced finally by other genres of movies that are working, like Michael and like Backrooms and Obsession and these other types of movies that have kind of filled the void. Like what are the demos? Tell us about what kinds of movies are working.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, I think Gen Z is definitely playing a big factor. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that. You noted Backrooms and Obsession. I think the amazing thing about those two titles in particular, as well as Michael, they've had some really nice legs. It hasn't just been really front loaded. So it's not just in and out for the opening weekend. Things have really stuck around. They've been able to find their way within the marketplace and find audiences as a result of being. Being just great titles.

[Matt Bellany]

So is it a specific demo thing like you're. The data is showing you that? Because I saw a report, Matthew Ball, the researcher, did a report in 2024 that noted that a big factor in the decline in admissions was the relative abandonment of the 2 to 24 demo, essentially saying that young people are no longer going to the movies at the same frequency as they once did. And, and that was the result of that, was the decline in admissions. What is the data from this year showing?

[Steve Buck]

There are two key age groups for us, under 13 and over 60. And the reason those are so key is because they value those ticket prices differently. So we always put a strong focus on those. And when I look at under 13 this year to last year, 12% this year versus 13% last year. So essentially negligible. When I look at 60, we're talking 6% versus 5% again, it's very negligible. I think what's happening, it's not necessarily that there's a new age group that's been activated. I think what's happening is the different age groups are finding the different areas of interest. Moons ago, when there was the beginning of the decline of the superhero, in a sense, the way we would look at that is what happened was the audiences were aging up. Superhero movies might have been desired by say 25 year olds or 30 year olds, what have you. Well, those people might be 50, 55 now. So I think things are just aging up. And in the case of the younger generation, they clearly seem to be leaning towards horror.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And is the demo showing that what kind of genres are performing and not performing? You noted in your mid year report that action doesn't necessarily perform as well anymore and it's more horror and younger skewing.

[Steve Buck]

I think that's what's the most surprising thing for us this year. For us to say that action is down and horror and animation are up. I, I like to, you know, look at that with a, a bit of caution. Right. We, we, we, we've, in this industry, we've had these sort of false narratives or false positives before. Think of a, anyone but you. We say, oh my gosh, R rated comedies are back. Well, hang on, maybe that was just a great movie and it hit really the right cylinders with the right audiences. So we want to be mindful of that. Same here. So I don't want to say it's doom and gloom for action and it's all horror and all animation. I think a year ago we might have been questioning whether or not horror has sustainability. Right. So I think we always want to look at these things with a, not necessarily an isolated manner, but more like over like a 12 month, 18 month period.

[Matt Bellany]

Interesting. Okay. And so one of the other things you think may Be helping. Attendance is the windowing issue. We talk a lot about windowing on this show and a number of these studios have committed to longer windows. They're backing away from the three weeks and it's on subscription video on demand. And you think that might be helping?

[Steve Buck]

Absolutely. I mean, again, the three movies you've already mentioned, backrooms, Obsession and Michael. I mean, look at the tale that those three movies have had. And I would argue that if the window was much shorter, well then the consumer likely might pick those titles up elsewhere. Meaning at the home.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. So you think that that is working?

[Steve Buck]

Absolutely. Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

It's interesting because I noted I was, I count now. I count whenever the streaming date is announced. I always count backwards. And I noticed that for Super Mario Universal did. I believe it's a four month window for there. And for Avatar it got, I mean Avatar gets the most, but Avatar got six months. Like they are, they are extending those.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Is there a sweet spot for you, Steve, in terms of how long the window should be before it becomes no longer?

[Steve Buck]

Well, I mean like.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, he's gonna say forever. Yeah.

[Steve Buck]

Like all my friends in exhibition would say the longer the better.

[Matt Bellany]

And I, and I do believe when

[Craig Horlbeck]

you see the data, when you see the numbers start to slow down, like when is that sweet spot?

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, I mean, you know what's interesting is I'd say like by and large most of the audience has seen their film, the film by after 30 days. We say 32% see within the first three days. We say that 67% have seen it within the first 14 days and that 88% have seen it within the first 30 days. That doesn't mean on day 31 we suggest going. Putting on, putting it in the hall.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, there's 12% is decent money.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, and knowing the fact, knowing that the movie will not be on streaming for four months makes you see it in the first 30 days.

[Steve Buck]

Exactly right. You got that right.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean that's. That sort of conforms with what logic would suggest.

[Steve Buck]

I would hope.

[Matt Bellany]

Although it feels like we went through a period of illogic when we're trying to pump up the streaming services.

[Craig Horlbeck]

It should be more a part of the marketing. Movies should really say this will not be on streaming for five months. So you need to come to the theater.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. You want to see this thing, better do it now.

[Craig Horlbeck]

They should say that. I think that would help a lot. If it said not on streaming for four months, people would be more likely to go see it, I think. Well, more likely.

[Matt Bellany]

And you would essentially be shaming the other studios that don't market that. Because if you are in the market in an opening weekend with a Minions movie going up against a, you know, a movie that's going to be on streaming in three weeks and they're not telling you that it's going to take six months, then maybe you go see the Minions movie because you think the other one's going to be on streaming.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah, Minions. Not on Peacock until January 2027.

[Matt Bellany]

So your kid is going to hate you for six months if you don't take him this weekend.

[Craig Horlbeck]

There's something there.

[Matt Bellany]

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[Steve Buck]

I think it's going to be more of the latter. Yeah. One of the things we, whenever we talk about blue or red, what we always try to do is put it in perspective. So, so the reality is 60, 60, 40 or 61, 39 or whatever that is. It, it's, it's on pace, it's normal. Think about the big cities, New York, Chicago, L.A. san Francisco, those are all going to lean blue. Heavy, heavy movie going markets. I mean New York and LA alone are 15% often of the attendance. So they're going to lean blue.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. And that would skew the numbers. And you know, in many places, I just got back from South Carolina and there aren't that many movie theaters there. We got, we got to go about 25, 30 minutes to get to our local cineplex.

[Steve Buck]

But I will say this, when we, when we look at this data, we will see pops in certain red zones. When we were looking at Melania, Right. Not to be, not to speak politically, but you know, we obviously have film that's going to lean red. We saw more of a 50, 50 split, less of a 60, 40 split. And we saw popping in zones where there was a heavy white population, zones where there was a larger age group or age population was we saw doing great in Florida, saw great doing Maricopa County.

[Matt Bellany]

So it can be that one's obvious. Are there other examples of movies that tended to skew heavily blue or heavily red?

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, I think we've got the most recognition around Snow White when this first came out because I think there was a lot.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh yeah, the remake.

[Steve Buck]

Lot of commentary, shall we say, about that title. And I think there's a little concern.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they get caught up in the culture wars and it's on Fox News. And if Fox News is telling you not to see it, maybe the red counties aren't.

[Steve Buck]

Bingo. Right. Is this Snow Woke, is it? Whatever. Right. I kept hearing that and when we were looking at the data, it didn't matter. People didn't care. It was doing great actually in red zones.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, interesting.

[Steve Buck]

The movie didn't work, period. That Was it? Everybody hated it universally, regardless of political affiliation.

[Matt Bellany]

I know. I wonder what does the data tell you about Supergirl? Does. Because, you know, you see somebody, oh, they're trying to go woke and they're trying to do yada yada. What was the data on Supergirl politically?

[Steve Buck]

You know. You know, that's me. I haven't looked at it politically. But I will say this. One of the problems we saw with Supergirl was we do. We monitor seats and we like to. We monitor when they're occupied. Last year alone we monitored 4.7 billion seats. In the case of Supergirl, what we were looking at were a couple of red flags. One of them was the activity when were the seats being occupied. And unfortunately for Supergirl, it was all front loaded. It was Friday night. You know, we just didn't see the activity going Saturday or Sunday for the

[Matt Bellany]

DC fan base like that. You were either in and you went opening night or you just don't care.

[Steve Buck]

That's right. It just didn't have that crossover.

[Matt Bellany]

What has been the impact on attendance of the PLFs, the premium screens with premium large format?

[Steve Buck]

A lot of times people think that it's all or nothing. The reality is there's been a bit of a consistency with premium format and it's been 16% of the overall audience, not necessarily specific to titles. For certain titles it's incredibly important. A movie like Odyssey, a movie like Oppenheimer for Avengers. We care about this division. Right. Or Infinity Vision.

[Matt Bellany]

Don't get me started on Infinity Vision.

[Steve Buck]

Sorry, didn't mean to poke the bear. But the reality is the consistency of premium format. It's 16% of the occupancy of the overall attendance.

[Matt Bellany]

And it has been since the beginning,

[Steve Buck]

since we emerged from the pandemic.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, interesting. Because if you look at the ticket prices, the average adult PLF price is 1820, which is almost $5 more than regular. So the. Any increase in PLF penetration is going to increase box office. Not attendance necessarily, but box office.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That.

[Steve Buck]

That's right. And I would say like one of the. One of the trends that we're seeing now with, with movie going is there's a little bit more of an appointment style approach to it. Right. Certainly with a Christopher Nolan movie where folks are going to choose their 70 millimeter, choose their IMAX, choose whatever.

[Matt Bellany]

But.

[Steve Buck]

But the idea of appointment st versus going into the theater and choosing what you're going to see is gone.

[Matt Bellany]

We've talked about that. Yeah, People don't go to the movies, they go to see a movie. That they have decided they will go see.

[Steve Buck]

Right. You know, we often get asked about pre sales activity and now, you know, I asked to find pre sales. It used to be any activity that happens before you walk into, before you walk into the lobby. But now you know, you're, you're, you're at the supermarket, you're about to cross the alley and buy your tickets on your phone and boom, you've got it. Is that a presale and is it not? What does that mean? So it's kind of been an interesting, the behavior patterns I'd say have changed a bit.

[Matt Bellany]

So what about the ratings? You hear a lot about how R rated movies are back and a lot of these genre movies that are succeeding. But in your numbers you put out for the first half of the year, 33% of attendance was for R rated movies, 35% was PG 13 and 28% was PG. How has that shifted over the past decade or so?

[Steve Buck]

Well, I think there are, you know, PG and PG 13. We often lump together when we're looking at audience. Sure, okay, they're definitely different. But the reality is again, there's more of a consistency than you might think. The R rated phenomenon of 33%, it's consistent with last year of 32%. So there hasn't been sort of these eye opening or, sorry, these, these revolutionary changes in a sense with, with the, with moviegoers going to see R rated film. I mean family films still are dominant and family films are still critical to the box office theater, to the theaters.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, it's a, it's a quarter of attendance is animation according to your numbers for this year. And that is more than double 2025.

[Steve Buck]

Well, one of the things that's interesting with, with animation that we're seeing this year is more animated films are playing in premium this year. Typically, you know, mom and dad don't want to spend that extra $5 as you said, to play it in the largest. You know, the babysitter is fine in the standard seats. Right. But now it seems that this year we've had some big animated titles, obviously with Toy Story most recently. But there is a bit more of a play for premium for those, for that genre.

[Matt Bellany]

And Craig will be excited about this one. Comedy is up to 11% of attendance this year. That was 4% last year.

[Steve Buck]

Give, give, give Scary Movie some credit with that one.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so that gets put in comedy, not horror.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, I mean listen, at the end of the day, genre is always a hard one, right? I think there's genres are you know, sometimes it's, it's very, you know, cut and dry, you know, R rated comedy, R rated horror. Those are easy. But sometimes you get into these, like, weird little nuances.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. What is sci fi? Do comic book movies count as sci fi? I mean, you have a big spike this year for sci fi, but Project Hail Mary was responsible for that.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah, of course.

[Matt Bellany]

What is the ultimate takeaway from your attendance numbers are, should we be just as excited about the attendance as people have been about box office? Is the boost in attendance going to maybe put pressure on these theater owners to maybe not raise prices as much or are they going to be more emboldened to raise prices because people are coming back?

[Steve Buck]

Well, here's what I always say about theater owners. You know, there are 5,000 theaters across the country, believe it or not, they all don't get along and they all don't see the world in the same manner.

[Matt Bellany]

We go to Cinemacon every year, we see it. Right.

[Steve Buck]

So. So I'd say it all depends. I know, I know it's probably not the answer you were looking for, but it all depends on the situation. The market, the circuit, you know, Main Street USA versus some big mega Tropolis, whatever. So. So I don't think there's like sort of a, a blanket industry wide response to that.

[Matt Bellany]

So where are the bright spots in movie going right now as far as

[Steve Buck]

the bright spots with the movie going, L.A. and New York still dominate. They still drive the marketplace. The big cities are still going to be your, your, your go to places. Obvious is key. I think what the studios and what the exhibitors are doing very well in tandem, in partnership, are creating unique experiences, whether it's 70 millimeter, whether it's 35 millimeter, whether it's 3D or further premium screens. I think what the industry is doing very well is it's collectively trying to invigorate and create activation with the moviegoer beyond just seeing it in traditional standards. So I think that's where the trends are. It's more these format driven initiatives.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Because you can get to a higher number for Odyssey with fewer attendance if everybody's paying five bucks more.

[Craig Horlbeck]

This sounds relatively optimistic. Steve, is there anything that, like, what do you think needs to change for the better?

[Steve Buck]

Well, I think, I think the industry is doing what they should be doing. Continuing to give back to the consumer, continuing to create a better experience, whether or not it's with. Whether it's with concessions or better seating or better film formats or, excuse me, with more film formats or it's more content from the studio side. I think it's a collective. It's not one silver bullet. I think that often I'm asked about what's the thing, what's going to get more people to activate and go to the theater. I think that's a hard thing. People go to movie theaters for different reasons. Some people go to see for a director, the cast, cause it's part of a franchise, because they just want to go out, whatever it may be.

[Matt Bellany]

Air conditioning.

[Steve Buck]

Air conditioning, sure.

[Matt Bellany]

And how has that changed? Does your data suggest the motivations for people changing over the, you know, since COVID for instance?

[Steve Buck]

I, I'd say planning is, is what's changed the most. Right. You, you, you, you noted earlier people don't go to the movies. Right. They go to see a movie and if they can't see their movie, they, then they move on.

[Matt Bellany]

People don't give that enough importance because it is a fundamental change in how people view movies. And the entire business of getting people to theaters has changed to accommodate the fact that people don't automatically go. And it's changed the kinds of movies that get made. And it's changed everything about the experience because you've got to convince people to go to a theater when a generation ago all you had to do was convince them to pick yours amongst a platter of options. Very different value proposition. Very different business case.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah.

[Steve Buck]

And I would say, Matt, that that change in moviegoer behavior is changing. The, the revenue activity for theaters, meaning it's so much of what they're doing now is also around ads and trailers. As you well know, that's obviously a hot topic at Cinemacon. And we're seeing that with our measurement. The length of the trailer pack, the quantity of trailers, the, the ads that are being inserted.

[Matt Bellany]

Let me guess, people hate ads.

[Steve Buck]

Well, well, back to your question about why attendance for us, that's why it's so important. Because if you're going to be measuring, if you're going to be providing ads and putting revenue around the ads, you need a third party independent measurement service that, that's measuring the actual reach.

[Matt Bellany]

Cinemacon seemed pretty excited this year. Are you as optimistic?

[Steve Buck]

I think in 2026, the 2026, CinemaCon, I think was the most optimistic that I felt. Right. And I think obviously it works when you're coming in from a win. We had a really good first quarter. Right. I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic. I look at the attendance, I don't look at the box office. So I'm Always a little bit more measured with. But I am bullish. I'm high that movie going is. Movie going is not going the way of the bowling alley. Right. It's still a popular activity. It's great. When you do activate a younger generation with the films we were talking about earlier. Older generations are going to the movie theater. They're just not seeing movies. Like maybe Downton Abbey, they might be seeing an MCU movie, but that's what older folks are going to go see. So I do believe that the audience is there.

[Matt Bellany]

349 million people went to movies in the first half of this year. That is.

[Craig Horlbeck]

How does that compare to, like, 2015?

[Steve Buck]

Well, here's what I would say we. Last year, there was 318 million people went to see the theater up until the same point in time. That's roughly about 46, 47% of last year's activity. If that holds true, we'll hit about 760 million attendees this year. Now, listen, I get it all depends on the content. There's different films that are going to be competing in the fall and over the Christmas break, but I think it's reasonable to assume 750, 760 is an attainable number for us this year.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, and would that be the highest of the 2000s?

[Steve Buck]

Yes, it is. Since the pandemic. So we are on the upward swing. Prior to the pandemic, I'd say we averaged about 1.1, 1.2 billion.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Oh, wow. Okay.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah. Wow.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Still a ways away.

[Matt Bellany]

Still a ways away.

[Steve Buck]

Yeah. It's still a ways off, but still a good business.

[Matt Bellany]

All right, Steve, appreciate you coming on the show. Thank you.

[Steve Buck]

Thank you.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, we are back with the call sheet. Craig, you're going to deny this, but I was sitting next to you at Cinemacon during the Minions and Monsters presentation, and I heard audible laughing from you.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I mean, Melodri came out and showed not one, not two, but three separate clips of Minions and Monsters throughout the presentation. They were all great.

[Matt Bellany]

He's very excited about this movie.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yes. It was like. It's like a Minions love letter to old Hollywood. It's like Babylon and Minions had a baby. So, yeah, you and I were both in on it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes, Definitely funnier than the other ones. It looks. People at the studio tell me I will actually like this one. Critics seem. Critics seem to like it. I will be there with my kid. Weirdly, though, the tracking is only at about 80 million for the five day it opened last night. Kind of surprising. The previous one in 2022 opened to 100 million over the three day weekend. That was the year where July 4th was on a Monday. So they had the first, second, and third for that weekend. I'm kind of surprised the tracking is lower for this one.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, what's really the difference? I mean, Friday is the federal holiday this time compared to Monday in 2022. It's still the same amount of time off, correct?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. But having the fourth of July on a Saturday, I think takes away a little bit of the audience for from this weekend. Now that's why they opened it on Wednesday. So they can capture three, you know, three whole days of movie going before.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Because. Because a Monday day off is different than. Even though no one has school on Friday. That's still different than a Monday, you're saying?

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. And it opened to about 13 million last night. We have a little advantage this year for this movie because we know what it opened on on Wednesday. But I'm going to take the over. I think 80 seems low, right?

[Craig Horlbeck]

It was 130 over the four day in 2022. This feels still. Even with the 4th of July landing on a Saturday, it feels weirdly low. I don't know if. Do you think Toy Story hurts it?

[Matt Bellany]

I do.

[Craig Horlbeck]

People saving up to go to the Odyssey, which is over two Minions and Monsters long.

[Matt Bellany]

That's a hilarious detail, by the way, that. Minions and monsters, 85 minutes. Odyssey, almost three hours. So you can see two minions and monsters or one Odyssey. Yeah, you can change it somehow. I think Minions and Monsters will seem longer to me.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, you know, it's kind of like the perfect family outing is you can send your kids to go watch Minions twice and you can watch the Odyssey.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. And then eat whatever candy during the intermission. I am taking the over on this one, I think. Even with the World cup, even with fourth on a Saturday, even with so many people flocking to Washington, D.C. for the Freedom 250 Great American State Fair that I know you were attending. Correct.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I will be there. I'll be podcasting live.

[Matt Bellany]

Live from the very empty fairgrounds there in D.C. with the thunderstorms above you. Yeah, I'm taking the over. You too?

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah. How high are you going to go, though? I want to make you pick a number.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you keep doing this. That you keep doing this. Gamblers don't have to do this. They just have to say over or under.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That's fair. I. I just think the line is a little bit questionable. I think it should be higher, but it should be.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, but NRG has it at 80 all the services around the same. Some have it a little higher, but some. Some have it lower. So I'll. I mean, maybe it'll get to 90.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah. I mean, look, we took the over on Toy Story. We barely missed. We got that wrong, so.

[Matt Bellany]

I know. I know so. All right. We'll see. That's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Steve Buck, producer Craig Horlbeck, our editors Jon Jones and Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. Happy 4th. We'll see you on Monday.