Why Iger Gave OpenAI the Keys to Disney’s Vault

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Town with Matthew Belloni

Episode: Why Iger Gave OpenAI the Keys to Disney’s Vault
Date: December 16, 2025
Host: Matt Belloni
Guest: Lukas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horlbeck (Producer)
Topic: Disney’s landmark deal with OpenAI/Sora, implications for Hollywood studios, IP, AI content creation, and the future of the industry.

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Matt Belloni, joined by Bloomberg’s Lukas Shaw and producer Craig Horlbeck, dives into the shockwaves sent through Hollywood by Disney’s billion-dollar investment and licensing deal with OpenAI. The agreement allows over 200 Disney-owned characters to be used on Sora, OpenAI’s AI text-to-video tool, while attempting to balance brand risk, creative guild concerns, copyright protection, and the future of user-generated AI content.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Disney–OpenAI Sora Deal: What Happened?

• Background: After the Sora 2 launch and subsequent backlash regarding copyright use, OpenAI pivoted from opt-out to opt-in IP inclusion, with major studios pulling their characters—causing Sora’s popularity to drop ([03:37]).
• The Big Surprise: Disney, Hollywood’s copyright fortress, reverses course with a $1B investment and three-year deal allowing 200+ characters on Sora for fan use ([03:37]–[04:16]).
• Limitations and Protections:
  • No voices or human faces allowed, attempting to sidestep image and likeness legalities ([03:59]).
  • Vague assurances of guardrails to prevent abuse or explicit misuse of characters, but skepticism from industry insiders and unions persists.

“Not sure how that’s going to work, if it’s okay for Homer Simpson to give a Hitler speech or those sexy videos of the Little Mermaid.” — Matt Belloni ([04:00])

2. Disney’s Motivation: Why Jump in Now?

• Proactive vs. Reactive: Disney recognizes the inevitability of generative AI for video and opts to shape the future rather than be left behind, despite inherent risks ([05:03]).
• Leverage over OpenAI: With Sora’s relevance waning and OpenAI seeking legitimacy and content, Disney capitalizes for a better deal and equity stake ([06:06]).

“You pick off the player that needs you. OpenAI needs you more than Google, so you can get a better deal with them.” — Lukas Shaw ([06:06])

• Strategic Pressure on Google: Disney signals willingness to license to disruptors, pressuring Google to negotiate on Disney’s terms ([06:48]).
• Template for Others: This move could set a precedent for other studios to license their IP for AI platforms ([10:15]).

3. Risks, Deal Terms, and Industry Implications

• Deal Structure: Unclear whether Disney will see actual cash for licensing; equity and potential usage-based payouts may be the bulk ([10:15]–[10:50]).
• Duration: Three-year term may let Disney renegotiate if AI-generated content explodes in popularity.
• Risk to Core Brand: Ripe for abuse; hard to guarantee OpenAI or Disney can police all problematic outputs ([18:28]).

“Even if they do try hard to stop that stuff, they won’t be able to stop all of it.” — Lukas Shaw ([18:28])

4. Disney’s Bigger Play: Fan Communities and Interactivity

• Disney as a Platform for UGC: Possibilities of curated, fan-made AI videos integrated into Disney’s ecosystem—potentially fostering community and engagement ([11:01]).
• Skepticism About Impact: Both hosts doubt Disney will become a major UGC hub due to legal complexity and limited creation tools ([12:13]–[12:55]).
• Disney’s Missed Opportunities: Lack of synergistic perks between Disney+, theme parks, and physical merch identified as an ongoing shortfall ([14:54]–[15:17]).

5. The Question of AI Guardrails & Creative Labor

• Effectiveness of Controls: Both express doubts that current technology can truly stop abuse at scale ([18:28]–[19:29]).
• Guild & Union Backlash: Writers Guild and others voice concerns that this opens the door to AI encroaching on creative labor ([20:33]).
• Future of AI Content: Lukewarm on the idea that AI will soon replace traditional TV/film—more likely to be used for shorts or experimental fan creations for now ([20:15]–[20:39]).
• Long Game Anxiety: Recognizes that even if Disney is reluctant, AI firms like OpenAI/Google see this as a path to “the next YouTube” ([20:52]).

“Disney’s bread and butter is creating high end programming you can’t get anywhere else.” — Lukas Shaw ([21:21])

6. Iger’s Calculation and Industry Response

• Bob Iger’s Messaging: Disney CEO makes concerted efforts to reassure creatives and the industry that this is an “experiment,” not a creative coup ([23:28]).
• Legitimacy as Leverage: Disney’s imprimatur gives Sora and AI content a stamp of mainstream approval, possibly opening the floodgates for similar deals ([09:21]–[10:15]).

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Matt Belloni: “Is Disney so desperate to jump on the AI bandwagon that it would take this kind of brand risk with its most valuable characters?” ([03:37])
• Lukas Shaw: “If you are worried about Google, you pick off the player that needs you. OpenAI needs you more than Google so you can get a better deal with them.” ([06:06])
• Matt Belloni: “The better question to ask when you look at this deal is what if they didn’t do it? How does this technology and content play evolve if Disney is not at the table?” ([07:22])
• Lukas Shaw: “Even if they do try hard to stop that stuff, they won’t be able to stop all of it.” ([18:28])
• Matt Belloni: “It’s offensive to creative people to suggest that a machine can replicate their output.” ([22:39])
• Lukas Shaw: “Disney’s bread and butter is creating high end programming that you can’t get anywhere else.” ([21:21])

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [03:37] — Context: OpenAI’s Sora 2, Disney’s unprecedented deal
• [05:03] — Why Disney took the risk and what they get from the deal
• [06:06] — Disney’s leverage over OpenAI versus Google
• [09:21] — Predictions on Sora’s future and ripple effects across media
• [11:01] — Disney’s potential move into AI-powered, fan-created video
• [18:28] — Skepticism over content moderation and real-world risks
• [20:39] — Discussion of creative union fears and studios’ real intentions
• [23:28] — Bob Iger’s attempts to reassure Hollywood

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Memorable Moments

• Jokes about “sexy Little Mermaid videos” and the Internet’s likely misuse of Disney IP if guardrails collapse ([03:59])
• Debate over whether Disney+ will ever become a serious platform for user-generated or community content (Matt’s “Where is the metaverse version of Disney?” at [13:57])
• Broad skepticism of the effectiveness of content moderation—a constantly moving target even for giants like YouTube ([18:28])
• Candid take on creative guild fears, with Belloni pushing back on “AI as a tool, not a replacement” studio speak ([22:53])

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Industry Speculation & Next Moves

• Other studios may soon follow with their own deals (Lionsgate, Universal, Paramount, etc.) or strike arrangements with Google if Disney remains cozy with OpenAI ([16:48]).
• The licensing landscape for AI video (e.g., what IP various studios truly control, how legacy rights transfer to new platforms) is full of unknowns ([17:31]).

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Brief Additional Segment: Warner Bros. & Paramount Bids

• (24:19–28:22)
  In a later segment, Belloni and Shaw discuss current speculation around Warner Bros. acquisition bids—who’s really backing David Ellison’s bid, possible complications with Middle Eastern funds, and the likelihood of higher counter-bids by Netflix. This is tangentially related but reflects the larger media industry’s volatility and the importance of capital and control in a changing entertainment landscape.

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Tone and Style

The conversation is savvy, slightly irreverent, and rich with industry-insider candor. Belloni's skeptical optimism is tempered with realism about both the potential and peril of AI-generated content. Both hosts are analytical but unafraid to poke fun at Hollywood’s excesses and risk aversion, making for an engaging and accessible, yet thoroughly informed, listen.

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For those seeking an in-depth understanding of why Disney is betting big on AI video—and what it all means for the future of Hollywood IP and fan interaction—this episode is a must-listen.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member Today. This episode of the Town is presented by HBO Max, presenting the Emmy Award winning HBO Original series Hacks for your consideration, starring Gene Smart and Hannah Einbinder. The new season picks up with Deborah Vance's late night show finally in production and Ava Daniels stepping in as head writer. To Deborah's dismay, their ever complicated relationship is pushed to new limits as they clash over creative direction and get entangled in blackmail and betrayal. Don't miss the series, Slate says has never been better. Now streaming on HBO Max this Christmas.

[Lukas Shaw]

Focus Features presents the new movie Song Song Blue, starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson as two down on their luck.

[Matt Bellany]

Performers who fall in love and form.

[Lukas Shaw]

A joyous Neil diamond tribute band. Critics and audiences are raving. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson are electric in the best picture of the year and now Kate Hudson is a Golden Globe nominee for Best Actress.

[Matt Bellany]

Good Times Never seem so good Based.

[Lukas Shaw]

On a true story about never giving up on your dreams. Song sung blue rated PG13 only in theaters this Christmas.

[Matt Bellany]

It is Monday, December 15th. Many in Hollywood, including me on this very show, went pretty nuts this past summer when OpenAI introduced Sora 2, its new AI text to video tool. There were almost no copyright guardrails. People could use the intellectual property freely. I made a couple creepy videos with Wednesday Adam and Peter Griffin from Family Guy. Sam Altman, the OpenAI CEO, first announced that copyright owners were going to have to opt out of Sora 2 individually, a huge middle finger. But after the freakout he changed that to opt in and the characters mostly disappeared from Sora, as did the users. Against that backdrop, it was pretty shocking to see the announcement last week that Disney, the leader of the Hollywood studios home to thousands of copyrighted characters, is now jumping into bed with OpenAI, investing a billion dollars in the company and signing a three year deal to allow more than 200 characters to be added to the AI platform for use by fans. That means Craig can finally make some sexy Little Mermaid videos or make a Yoda fighting Buzz Lightyear to the death video. There's some caveats, of course. No voices or human faces, so they hope to avoid image and likeness issues, though the guilds are rightly suspicious, and they say that guardrails are in place to protect against copyright abuses or the misuse of characters. Not sure how that's going to work, if it's okay for Homer Simpson to give a Hitler speech or those sexy videos of the Little Mermaid. Disney also hasn't said what OpenAI is paying to license these characters. Some reports suggest it's not very much, given how much this deal legitimizes Sora and potentially will lead to other deals with big copyright holders. There was lots of language about Disney and OpenAI affirming a shared commitment to the responsible use of AI that protects user safety and and the rights of creators. Okay. Disney also agreed to become a big customer of OpenAI for all its internal systems. A huge win for Sam Altman and OpenAI. Big middle finger to Google, which Disney would very much like to protect its copyrighted materials as well. So the big question is, why did Disney and its CEO Bob Iger do this? Is Disney so desperate to jump on the AI bandwagon that it would take this kind of brand risk with its most valuable characters? Is this a play for Disney to eventually become a much more interactive platform? And what could ultimately go wrong there? We've got Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg back here to discuss. We'll do a little update on the Warner Brothers sales situation, but mostly It's Disney and OpenAI. What the heck is Iger thinking From the Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the Town. We are here with Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas.

[Lukas Shaw]

Happy Monday.

[Matt Bellany]

We are talking about maybe the deal of the year, certainly one of the more surprising deals on its surface, but once you start to think about it, don't think it's that surprising. Disney OpenAI. The details I think are a little bit intriguing here because obviously you wouldn't expect Disney to be putting money into OpenAI. You'd expect the money to be flowing the other way, which it is in some ways, but a lot of stuff that OpenAI is getting here in this SORA deal. Why did Disney do this? SORA was kind of dying. Downloads had cratered. Didn't seem like anyone was talking about it. I mean, we'll see if this helps supercharge it, but this Company's threatening to Disney in so many ways. Why did Iger do this?

[Lukas Shaw]

Their dying probably created an opportunity. I think if you look at it from Disney's point of view, you are sitting here and saying, okay, generative AI video is probably going to become a thing. We want to be ahead of it. Like, you can either believe that you can just stop it right, by saying it won't matter if it doesn't have Disney characters, which I don't think is true.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, the Viacom 2006 strategy for YouTube, it won't matter.

[Lukas Shaw]

Hollywood can just try to shut everything down and like starve it of our stuff, or we can try to do a deal that accomplishes enough of our objectives, which is we get some equity in the company, which is sort of a must, so that you can benefit if it goes public and you make a bunch of money from that.

[Matt Bellany]

Minimal, though, a billion dollars. When a company's valued, what they're valued at is great.

[Lukas Shaw]

Minimal. You get some protections. I will leave it to the kind of experts to determine how real those protections are. You get the little meat wave to investors to say, we're going to put some AI video in our app, which is going to be totally pointless and not mean anything.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you think so? We'll get to that.

[Lukas Shaw]

We'll get to that, to what they did after it. If you are worried about Google, you pick off the player that needs you. OpenAI needs you more than Google so you can get a better deal with them. You're Disney. You have the most power and influence of any entertainment company to do a deal with one of these AI companies and you pick the one that needs you more because OpenAI needs you more than Google does. Google's a colossus. They have more leverage on you. And so you try to forge the best deal you can possibly get that you feel good about and hope that that becomes something of a template for the industry. Now, whether you think this is in fact the best deal, that I'm gonna leave to the experts, but I think that was the Disney thinking.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, we can have opinions, but I agree with you. The ultimate play here is Google. Like my colleague Julie Alexander wrote, like all other media publishers, this is a long play to make Google pay. And it's not a coincidence that they sent the cease and desist letters the same day they announced this deal. They want the message to Google to be pretty clear. We are down to do deals on this. If you are going to come to.

[Lukas Shaw]

The table and we'll work with the company, that's threatening search that is your competitor in AI video. Like we will partner with them if you don't give us what we want.

[Matt Bellany]

And Google took down a bunch of Disney videos in response to this did not necessarily come to the table that we know of. Maybe they're negotiating behind the scenes. Maybe they've been negotiating all summer and fall behind the scenes and couldn't come to a deal. We don't know that. But the better question to ask when you look at this deal is what if they didn't do it? How does this technology and content play evolve if Disney is not at the table now they're at the table.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, it just means that these companies would continue to develop the products in isolation. And to your point about like Google took some stuff down. Do you believe that let's say Sora becomes popular again, right? Or really does become a big app. Do you think that there would be just no Disney material there at all? That they would, they would be whack a mole.

[Matt Bellany]

They would have to police it if.

[Lukas Shaw]

They didn't have a deal with Disney. Stuff would proliferate and like they'd claim to be doing their best, but they'd say, you know, you know what would make us really do our best? If you did a deal with us. Because otherwise we can only do so much.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, Craig would be on there all day long posting sexy Little Mermaid videos and they would try to get them removed one by one and he would just post more like that's what would happen. And they know that they would eventually come to some kind of a deal like Everybody did with YouTube and it would just be three, four years down the line. If they were to sue or even if they just let it go on its own, they would have less leverage than they do now.

[Lukas Shaw]

Right. I do think that they felt like they had good leverage at this moment given that Sora had dipped a little bit OpenAI probably worried about Google. You know, Disney had already sued a couple of other companies, so they'd proven that they were willing to fight if they really wanted to. Did you see the sort of. There was like the initial flurry of attention around Sora and then to your point, it seemed to recede. Do you feel like that is temporary or do you feel like this app is going to come back in a real way?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, not now. I mean, the second that the Disney characters are available, there will be a surge of interest, I think, because there will be a novelty, whether that translates into long term growth or a reverse of the trajectory. Typically apps, when they decline in usage, they don't recover. It's like, oh, you check it out, we don't like it and people move on. But I do think that the trajectory was really kneecapped when people went to Sora, saw that there were no copyrighted characters there and then got bored. So now they're going to have the opportunity to see Darth Vader, Yoda, all of them on the app. And I think this is going to open the door to other content owners for doing deals. I mean, we're going to see in one of my predictions for next year is we will see multiple media companies do these kinds of Sora deals saying, where's my Sora money?

[Lukas Shaw]

Right?

[Matt Bellany]

And we don't know how much money that is. I mean, the licensing, there was a report from the information that said that they were getting essentially equity or opportunities to buy more stock for the license agreement. I don't know if that's true. If that's the case and they're not getting actual payments, that's a very big deal and would not be great for Disney. But they're getting something in return for this. And there's probably a usage, you know, usage payment, meaning if this goes crazy and it becomes the biggest thing on the Internet, they will make more money. It's only a three year deal, so they could renegotiate if it's huge. Like there are, there are some protections there.

[Lukas Shaw]

Right. Although in terms of the three year deal, once you've kind of approved the usage and creation, the odds of you taking it down are pretty low.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, that's true. One of the things about this deal is that it provides for a curated selection of AI generated videos to be ingested into Disney and available to users of Disney. And I took this as the first step toward Disney offering some kind of AI generation tool on Disney. So you go there to watch the Simpsons and then when you're done watching the Simpsons, you can make Homer send your buddy a birthday greeting or things like that. That's pretty valuable if they can do that. Right? Because Disney has largely been and also ran in the user generated content world and these things are out there. So does this now mean that Disney is a player in the UGC race?

[Lukas Shaw]

I think it's gimmicky and it doesn't really matter, really.

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know, man. If there's like a couple hundred cool Disney generated character videos on Disney and you can click on it and have it play like YouTube, my kid would watch that.

[Lukas Shaw]

I just think for that type of Video people are going to be going elsewhere, not to Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

True. But maybe if it's perceived as the best of the best, if AI video.

[Lukas Shaw]

Takes off in a huge way, whether it's with Sora or Veo or Veo or one of the others, I think that's where people will consume it. And the folks who want to create stuff will go to the apps that are best at creation, which Disney is not going to be.

[Matt Bellany]

But it's early.

[Lukas Shaw]

Maybe someday they will go to the apps that promise the biggest audience, which Disney is not at the moment and probably will not for that type of thing going forward. And so I think it's a nice little thing to keep people engaged. And it's a fun. It is like a fan service, whatever. But I don't think it's a huge needle mover. And I don't think Disney is suddenly gonna become a haven for ugc because that would be a total legal nightmare for a company that is as risk aver.

[Matt Bellany]

It's true. Although the curated aspect of it is interesting. If the goal of Disney is to be premium and franchise driven, you know, you can go and find a lot of clips of Taylor Swift on the Internet and her performance and even some backstage stuff. You cannot see the curated docu series about Taylor Swift anywhere other than Disney. And maybe if once a week the 50 best Disney UGC videos are available in a quote unquote show on Disney. Kids would go there to watch the most fun and cool things that Homer and Peter Griffin and Yoda are doing that are made by other Disney fans. It's more of like a play for community. Like the Disney community is sending up these videos and we are displaying them for the Disney community to enjoy. And it's better than or considered more premium than what's out there.

[Lukas Shaw]

It'd be like if they curated their favorite YouTube videos and people would still just go watch the videos on YouTube instead of on Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

They would. But YouTube is more ubiquitous. I'm not letting my kid download Sora, that's for sure. But Disney's got to do something. They have the most engaged fan community in the world and yet they don't do much on their own app to engage that fan community. They started to put park stuff and they started to do a little shopping and maybe they'll get into connectivity. But like, I hate to use the word metaverse, but like, where is the metaverse version of Disney, the interactive social community that people who love Disney congregate around? Like they need Disney to be that. And maybe this is the. This is a key step towards that. Yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

This. The partnership with Epic Games, which is the publisher of Fortnite, they've got some of these, like, smaller partnerships that have yet to yield anything material. They haven't even really figured out how to integrate the parks with the streaming business and create, like, a membership program.

[Matt Bellany]

It is insane. Like, there is no connection between Disney and the parks. I was at Disneyland last weekend, and, like, there's no benefit. If you're a Disney subscriber, you should get, you know, a discount on snacks.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. A discount at the store, something. If the AMC movie theater chain can figure out a member program that people are tired about.

[Matt Bellany]

How dare you criticize my friend Adam.

[Lukas Shaw]

I'm not criticizing. People who are AMC Stubs members are proud AMC Stubs members that should be easily replicable on a much bigger scale for Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

It's the coolest membership program in Los Angeles, according to the Wall Street Journal.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah. Hey, my fiance is a member. And you better believe that she's proud when she can go in the shorter line to get a Diet Coke and popcorn.

[Matt Bellany]

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[Lukas Shaw]

What do you think will happen next? Someone else doing a deal with Sora or someone doing a deal with Google?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you mean Google will, like, raise the middle finger to Disney and do, like, a big universal deal?

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

All of a sudden we'll get, like, you know, the Odyssey exclusives. We get to, like, manipulate Matt Damon into fighting the Trojan army.

[Lukas Shaw]

Sure. Donna Langley and Neil Mohan hang out at Cannes together and.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure. Yeah. No, it'll be Minions. Honestly, that's the biggest thing they have is the Minions.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't know if you could do Jurassic Park.

[Matt Bellany]

There's.

[Lukas Shaw]

There's a bunch of stuff.

[Matt Bellany]

There's other stuff. Yeah, it's just the actors. You know, most of the Universal franchises are actor driven.

[Lukas Shaw]

Right. Well, I was trying to think about that this morning with something like Paramount, where, like, what real IP do they have that someone would want to partner.

[Matt Bellany]

On Sonic, although Sonic's not owned by them.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, that's sort of a lot of them are. I don't know how the AI rights work with Sonic. Transformers, GI Joe. Are those things that Paramount can. Can control or do the original rights holders have?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I don't know the answer to that, but I would assume that Paramount would have some rights in the movies versions of Transformers.

[Lukas Shaw]

But does that extend to artificial intelligence?

[Matt Bellany]

Unclear. Unclear. So you were sort of like punting on the guardrail issue, like you're gonna leave that to the experts. But it's kind of a big deal here. I just don't understand how they're gonna prevent me bad actor from, you know, making Homer Simpson give a Hitler speech or taking clothes off the princesses, things like that. What kind of indication do we have that OpenAI is trustworthy? Disney seems to be totally fine with this.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, or even the thing is, is that even if they do try hard to stop that stuff, they won't be able to stop all of it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

YouTube and Instagram and other UGC platforms that try to control infringing material and try to stop stuff that is kind of truly offensive or illegal can't stop it. Right. They do a good job, but they don't have a perfect record. So there's no way that any of these AI companies are going to, especially because just the sheer volume of stuff that's going to be produced. So they will. I do think that if it's a company that they have a deal with right now, open. OpenAI now has a deal with Disney, they will work hard to prevent bad things from happening. But it's taken a lot of these sites, like in ugc, it's a lot of what's called Content id, which is more for copyright infringing material. But, like, it took a long time for those tools to be developed. I don't think that they've been perfected yet. So certainly it's not going to be easy to stop Homer Simpson from doing horrible things.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Remember we had the guy on who ran that showrunner app earlier this year.

[Matt Bellany]

Right.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Which is essentially kind of similar to what this is which is basically like fan fiction curation, where you can kind of control the fan fiction. Do you see this deal as like the canary in the coal mine of Disney and content companies using AI to basically cut out the old antiquated ways of production and then soon like that? Basically these are just auditions for cheaper content that will eventually become miniseries that are basically generated by AI that are going to be on all these platforms.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. That's essentially a version of the what if it's really good.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yes.

[Matt Bellany]

Now it's gonna be a lot harder in this context because the voices are not coming along. So the voices are not gonna be the same.

[Craig Horlbeck]

But that's something that Disney could allow if they think it's good.

[Matt Bellany]

Sure.

[Lukas Shaw]

For right now, we're talking about people making like 15 second videos that will have like Homer Simpson appear and do something stupid. We're not talking about being able to make a television show. To your point, you can't have any of these people speak. We are, we are so not there yet. I'm not saying we won't get there eventually, but do, do you think that.

[Craig Horlbeck]

That is in their head, that that's in the back of their minds, that that is the long game here, is that they're, they're just dipping their toe in the water.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, so you're, you're sort of asking the question from the unions and producers who were very upset about this deal.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. But the Writers Guild put out a statement saying this is, you know, trampling our rights as creators, et cetera, et cetera.

[Lukas Shaw]

I don't think that that is Disney's intention. I think that OpenAI and Google and anyone who has an AI video generator would like it to eventually be the next YouTube, where it is the most popular way for people to both create and consume video. And that will sort of indirectly eat into the time spent with Disney product. But there's no way that that's what Disney wants. Right. Disney's bread and butter is creating high end programming that you can't get anywhere else.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. They're holding their nose and doing this because they know they have to and they know it's the future, but they don't want it to replace what they do as their core business. Maybe it'll make it cheaper, though.

[Lukas Shaw]

There are the people who believe that AI will make production cheaper, where even if you're making a $200 million, it'll make a $200 million movie cost $120 million or something like that.

[Matt Bellany]

And these are the kinds of apps that they can, I Mean, you just did a piece for BusinessWeek about the debate here, and Timur Becov, who's a pretty prominent director, he said he's doing it. He's making his own AI movies, and the guilds aren't happy with him.

[Lukas Shaw]

Well, the most interesting thing about it was that he made a movie that Amazon will release in January that has one of its main characters, is an AI character played by. Embodied by Rebecca Ferguson. And Amazon did not allow him to use AI on the movie, but he was simultaneously, like, fucking around making an AI movie, and then the people who were involved in the movie were mad at him.

[Matt Bellany]

And that's the Chris Pratt movie Mercy, which ironically feels like it was a movie made by AI.

[Lukas Shaw]

Are you surprised that some of these big filmmakers, you know, Guillermo del Toro, Rian Johnson, Bong Joon Ho, et cetera, are so opposed to it? Instead of saying, like, I want to mess around and why.

[Matt Bellany]

Of course they're opposed. It's offensive to creative people to suggest that a machine can replicate their output.

[Lukas Shaw]

But not if you view it less as something that replicates their output and more as a tool they can use to enhance their output.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, yeah. Okay, great. You're gonna get speaking gigs for every studio by saying that, because that's what they want us to think. But if I was a filmmaker and made my life around the creative expression of my art, I would be pretty wary of the AI programs that profess to replace that.

[Lukas Shaw]

Right? But so then by that logic, if you're someone who feels that way as a filmmaker, as a studio, wouldn't the logic then be, fuck these guys, let's starve them. Let's not do deals. Let's. If they think they can do this, like, good luck trying, eh?

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know. The studio position on this, I think, is very complicated. And Iger. There's no coincidence that Iger was on CNBC the day that this was announced. Basically, like, throwing up his hands to everyone saying, hold your horses. This is not anti creative. This is not anti studio. We're just experimenting. We're putting our characters here to give fans more choice on how to deal with them. Like, he knew that this was gonna be controversial, right?

[Lukas Shaw]

He wanted to manage the message, as he always does.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, any CEO, but him in particular, he's good at this. He has credibility with creatives based on his past leadership there. If Ted Sarandos did this at Netflix, people would be a little bit more up in arms, right?

[Lukas Shaw]

I'd say the average worker would. A lot of the high End talent does like Ted, and we don't have.

[Matt Bellany]

To get into Ted's popularity here. But speaking of, what do you make of the legitimacy argument that has now taken hold in the whole Warner Brothers auction? That maybe, just maybe, the Larry Ellison backstop on the Paramount bid was not as solid as Paramount and the Ellisons would like us to believe?

[Lukas Shaw]

Right. This is the argument that actually it's the Middle Eastern money and other people that are backstopping on the fact that.

[Matt Bellany]

Larry has only committed $12 billion of this supposed $108 billion deal. The Saudis, Qataris, other Middle east Money, they have $24 billion, twice as much in this deal, yet somehow they don't want any control over these outlets, including cnn.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah, I think the Paramount pushback on that has been that if any of the Middle Eastern financing pulls out, that Larry would still cover it. So he is technically backstopping it. But if you were to identify the subject, that makes the two each suitor for Warner Brothers most uncomfortable. For Netflix, it's basically movie theaters that they're gonna, that nobody really believes them, that they're gonna put these movies in theaters, and for Paramount, it's the source of the capital and that Larry is not actually putting up all the money and that it would seem like a bad idea to have Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds having such a huge stake in not just major Hollywood studios, but in major news organizations.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. It's just funny that David Ellison is so taken aback by that questioning. It's like, how dare you? How dare you question my father? He's the second richest man in the world. But if he was, maybe he should be putting in more than $12 billion.

[Lukas Shaw]

It's the classic OPM. Other people's money. If you're rich, you want to use someone else's money.

[Matt Bellany]

I know, but they want it both ways. They want to use other people's money, but they want the perception that this is the richest man in the world who can buy the studio without any problem.

[Lukas Shaw]

Right. Who has bottomless resources and you know, good luck, Netflix, you're not going to win a bidding war with us, I guess. Do you think that there would be the same reaction if instead of it being Saudi, Qatari, Emirati money, it were Goldman Sachs, bank of America, Citigroup?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, a lot of those are in there.

[Lukas Shaw]

I know they're still in there, but.

[Matt Bellany]

No, no, no. I know that region is radioactive. These are not democracy loving, First Amendment loving nations. And they're going to potentially have influence over cnn. That's the difference Right.

[Lukas Shaw]

This will be probably a big week.

[Matt Bellany]

I know. We'll see what ends up happening. Because the Warner Discovery board is likely going to reject the Ellisons. Then they've got a decision to make on how high they go. How high do you think they will go?

[Lukas Shaw]

Gotta go at least another three or four dollars a share, probably, right? At least three.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, your buddy Charles Gasparino says that they are.

[Lukas Shaw]

My buddy. Your good friend, he changed his name. I, I, I took it as a, A badge of honor that I had broken enough news on the story that he started, quote, tweeting me, trying to say that he either that he'd already reported it or saying why I was stupid. So he's the best.

[Matt Bellany]

He's the best. So he reported that the Ellisons are prepared to go 10% higher, which 10% of $30 is $3. So that would mean $33 a share. Would that do it?

[Lukas Shaw]

That would make their bid clearly superior to Netflix's. End the debate over which one is better. And then the question, if they really did come back at that number, would be, will Netflix top that? Which is why they might decide 33 is not enough. Right. Because with the Netflix math at the moment, Netflix is at, like, let's call it. If you factor in the valuation of the cable networks, like, at about 31.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, depending on who you believe, but. Okay, no, no, no.

[Lukas Shaw]

But in their version of events.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, in their version, yeah.

[Lukas Shaw]

So Netflix could then go 34, 35.

[Matt Bellany]

They could. But if the shareholders are pissed about the current bid, how pissed are they going to be about a raise?

[Lukas Shaw]

Another $5 a share?

[Matt Bellany]

That's why the stock is down 20%. Because they're afraid that Ted wants this and is going to go higher.

[Lukas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Interesting times, man. Interesting times. All right, thank you, Lucas.

[Lukas Shaw]

Thanks, man.

[Matt Bellany]

We are back with the call sheet. Craig, where are you on the supposed backlash to the Timothee Chalamet Oscar campaign?

[Craig Horlbeck]

I think the Internet comes for everybody eventually, and that's why people like Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence just opted out. And you can only stay hot for so long.

[Matt Bellany]

Okay, so if you're not following, Timmy has been on his press tour for Marty supreme, very sophisticated marketer Timmy Chalamet. He has the blimp. He has his messaging dream big. He has his color orange, trying to replicate the Barbie campaign. But as part of that, as part of his tour, he made the following comment. And it's sort of in the context of him being sort of generally confident in his abilities and confident in, you know, his ability to market this movie, he said, it's been seven, eight years that I've been handing in really, really committed, top of the line performances. And some on the Internet think this is a bridge too far, that the braggadocio of a guy who's 30 years old and has not won an Oscar yet is going to torpedo his campaign for Marty Supreme.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yeah, I mean, and we saw him. I mean, he's always had this. I think it was at the SAG Awards last year or this year was when he gave his speech saying that he wanted to be one of the greats and he's in pursuit of greatest.

[Matt Bellany]

He wants it. What's so wrong with that?

[Craig Horlbeck]

Well, Leo told him no superheroes, no hard drugs. But the other thing that Leo does that Timmy doesn't do is Leo just stays out of it and lets the work speak for himself.

[Matt Bellany]

I know he's not confident like that. But you know what? Leo is not a child of the Internet. He's not a theater kid. He's not like, this is the. This is what makes Chalamet good at marketing is that he feels like he's committed to the bit all the time.

[Craig Horlbeck]

There's also a sense that he's doing all of this before the movie comes out, I think to get people to see the movie. And maybe after the film comes out, he will walk it back and get a little bit more reserved.

[Matt Bellany]

If you watch the movie, it is like the character.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Yes. He is playing Marty supreme in real life, essentially.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. So my prediction is that I do not believe this will hurt his Oscar campaign. I don't think academy members pay attention to the noise online. It's just not a thing in voter circles. Like, most of them hate the Internet anyways. Only when a scandal kind of crosses over into the real world of what people talk about. Like the Carla Sofia Gascon bad tweets conversation last year, only things that are actually problematic. Yes, that was the. That was the end of her campaign last year. But I think especially if Marty supreme opens and does well in theaters and there is a narrative around Chalamet as the movie star who can still open a movie for young people, then I don't think this matters at all. And he will get his nomination and he could even win.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I agree with you. I don't think this is going to matter either. I think this is classic Internet vacuum criticism that in reality doesn't mean anything, and if anything, just we'll make people go see the movie.

[Matt Bellany]

More importantly, have you received a Marty supreme jacket?

[Craig Horlbeck]

No, I have not.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, a 24 knows your address. I know that they do because they've sent you candles, they sent you a hat.

[Craig Horlbeck]

No, it's totally okay. I don't need the jacket.

[Matt Bellany]

You definitely do need the jacket.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I don't need the jacket.

[Matt Bellany]

And by the end of the year, if someone at 24 is listening right now, if Craig does not have the jacket, there's going to be hell to pay.

[Craig Horlbeck]

I don't need the jacket. It was crazy. There was a pop up in LA. There was like line down the 300 people waiting in line, sleeping overnight. Like it's at a Duke UNC game waiting for this jacket.

[Matt Bellany]

And that doesn't happen without Chalamet and his social media.

[Lukas Shaw]

Totally.

[Craig Horlbeck]

He's very good at it. I think whatever little negative backlash he's getting or if he slips up here and there, it doesn't matter. And ultimately it's. It's a floor razor.

[Matt Bellany]

Exactly. It's all benefit. It's noise around the movie and ultimately people will see it. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horlbeck, artist Jesse Lopez and I want to thank you. We'll see you later this week.

[Lukas Shaw]

And Doug, here we have the Limu.

[Matt Bellany]

Emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize their car insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug.

[Craig Horlbeck]

Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.

[Matt Bellany]

Cut the camera. They see us.

[Lukas Shaw]

Only pay for what you [e-mail] Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Savings Fairy underwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes Massachusetts.

[Matt Bellany]

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