Why ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Is a Fascinating Hollywood Experiment

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Why ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Is a Fascinating Hollywood Experiment"

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni
Host: Matt Belloni (The Ringer / Puck)
Guest: Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg)
Date: August 25, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Matt Belloni is joined by Lucas Shaw to dissect the surprise box office phenomenon of Netflix's "KPop Demon Hunters"—an animated film that became available for home viewing on Netflix two months prior to its (limited) theatrical release, but still managed to become the number one movie in the box office on opening weekend. The conversation explores why Netflix chose this unique release strategy, what it signals for the future of streaming and theatrical windows, the missed opportunities for Sony (the original studio), and what the whole saga suggests about how Hollywood makes and markets cultural moments.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Unpacking the Box Office Phenomenon

• Surprise Theatrical Success (01:06–04:41):
  • "The number one movie at the box office this weekend was a movie that has been available at home for two months on Netflix. It's KPop Demon Hunters, of course, with an estimated $18 to $20 million in ticket sales." (Matt, 01:20)
  • The movie played in only about 1700 theaters (not in AMC, the largest chain, due to ongoing disputes with Netflix over theatrical windows).
  • Box office figures were leaked, not officially released by Netflix, showing a secrecy at odds with their claims of transparency.

2. Netflix's Theatrical Play: Marketing, Not Money

• Strategic Motives (04:41–06:20):

  • Netflix did this not for revenue, but for “marketing and buzz” (Lucas, 05:24).
  • "Movies in theaters are considered a bigger deal and a cultural moment. The two things that [Ted Sarandos] says they don't need theaters for." (Matt, 05:28)
  • The sing-along theatrical event boosts franchise potential and community engagement—a playbook similar to Taylor Swift’s ERAS Tour.

• Missed Merchandising Opportunity (06:20–07:30):

  • Netflix tried to line up consumer product deals, but toy companies didn't see potential—now, with the movie’s surprise success, they're late to the party.
    • "Not because [Netflix] didn't want them. They went to toy companies a couple years ago. None of the toy companies saw the promise in the project." (Lucas, 06:51)

3. Does This Change Netflix’s View on Theaters?

• A One-Off Stunt (09:53–11:03):
  • "Does this change the Netflix stance on theaters at all?" (Matt, 09:53)
    • "Probably not." (Lucas, 10:02)
  • Netflix sees this as a unique situation, not a permanent shift. They're open to more 'stunt' releases, especially for event-scale movies, but remain resistant to wide theatrical windows.
  • "The vast majority of Netflix movies don't belong in a theater... but every quarter, a big event movie? Worth an experiment." (Lucas, 11:17)

4. Defining the "Biggest Movie of Summer"

• Debating Cultural Impact (10:32–10:58):
  • Debate over whether Netflix’s "Demon Hunters" can be called the 'movie of the summer' despite some labeling it a ‘TV movie’ due to its streaming-first distribution.
  • "The more I've thought about it, the more it feels sort of incontrovertible that K Pop Demon Hunters was the biggest movie of the summer." (Lucas, 10:45)

5. AMC and Theater Chain Dynamics

• Exclusivity and Leverage (13:16–15:16):
  • AMC refused to play the film because Netflix wouldn’t guarantee a traditional exclusive window.
  • "The problem for the theaters is that they don't have any leverage. Netflix doesn't need them." (Lucas, 14:09)
  • Duffer Brothers left Netflix in part due to this issue—Paramount offered them theatrical releases.

6. Could It Have Been a Theatrical Smash from the Start?

• Counterfactuals and Distribution Reality (17:09–20:10):
  • Matt and Lucas discuss whether KPop Demon Hunters could have had even bigger box office returns with a traditional, pre-Netflix theatrical release.
    • Matt: "I think that K Pop Demon Hunters had a chance to become a theatrical hit if Sony really nailed the marketing for it and leaned into the K Pop element..." (19:25)
    • Lucas: “Could have been. I just think that the odds of it are less, certainly less than 50%.” (20:01)
  • They note that original animation has lately struggled at the box office, with a few rare exceptions.

7. Sony’s Deal: A Case of Missed Value

• Who Profited? (20:10–22:36):
  • Sony sold the film to Netflix during the pandemic and will only make a flat $20 million, missing out on massive upside now.
    • "Sony...will only make $20 million on this movie." (Matt, 20:10)
    • "In hindsight, do you do this deal all over again? No, in hindsight. The benefit of hindsight, of course not." (Lucas, 21:36)
  • Netflix now controls the property and potential sequels for years to come.

8. Franchise Future and Sequel Potential

• The Sequel Question (22:36–24:03):
  • Will the momentum hold if a sequel arrives years later?
    • Lucas: "...the new movie wouldn't come for three or four years. So will there still be as much interest in it? I don't know." (22:39)
    • Matt: "Even if [the sequel is] okay... it's going to get to $500 million. That's why you do it." (23:48)
  • No clear precedent for streaming-first properties becoming theatrical megahits in second installments.

9. Netflix's Cultural Moment

• Perception Flex (25:02–25:37):
  • Netflix executives likely savor proving skeptics wrong about their ability to create cultural moments without theaters.
    • "We give them so much shit for not creating cultural moments, but they did." (Lucas, 25:02)
    • "He's gonna say, what a flex... We didn't need theaters." (Matt, 25:20/25:26)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Netflix’s Experiment:

  • "This thing became a sensation without theaters. It did not need theaters to become it." (Lucas, 06:20)

• On Cultural Moments:

  • "You put that movie in theaters, it becomes a cultural moment. Everybody is talking about it. And the Taylor Swift brand benefits from that. And that's what I think they're thinking about here for Demon Hunters." (Matt, 07:44)

• On Theaters’ Role:

  • "The vast majority of Netflix movies don't belong in a theater. If they tried to put them there, they would fail." (Lucas, 11:17)

• On Sony’s Deal:

  • "Tom Rothman, in hindsight, do you do this deal all over again? No, in hindsight. The benefit of hindsight. Of course not." (Lucas, 21:36)

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Important Timestamps

• [01:20] — KPop Demon Hunters box office numbers and limited release explained
• [05:24] — Why did Netflix put the movie in theaters? (Marketing, not money)
• [06:46] — Toy company miscalculation on merchandising
• [09:53] — Will this change Netflix’s position on theatrical releases?
• [10:45] — KPop Demon Hunters as the "movie of the summer"
• [13:16] — AMC’s refusal to carry the film
• [14:09] — "The problem for the theaters is that they don't have any leverage."
• [19:25] — Could KPop Demon Hunters have succeeded as a wide-release theatrical?
• [20:10] — Sony’s flat deal with Netflix limits their upside
• [22:39] — Will the sequel still have audience passion years later?
• [25:02] — Netflix’s flex: creating a cultural moment without theaters

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Takeaway

The episode provides a clear-eyed look at the shifting dynamics between streaming giants and traditional movie theaters, using "KPop Demon Hunters" as a case study. Netflix’s surprise box office move was more about brand, cultural cachet, and future franchise building than revenue. The discussion underscores the risks and unpredictable rewards of Hollywood dealmaking, the growing power of streaming-first franchises, and the still-evolving cultural meaning of a "movie event" in the era of hybrid distribution.

Fans of Hollywood business and industry strategy will find rich, candid insights that go beyond the trade headlines.

Transcript

[Matt Bellany]

If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do, if you're listening to the Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner Puck and I write a newsletter called what I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics and finance. It's a must have for plugged in people. Fans of the Town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at Puck News thetown. Go further into Hollywood by becoming a Puck member today.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Adolescence has been nominated for 13 Emmy Awards, including Outstanding Limited Series, Outstanding Lead Actor Stephen Graham, Outstanding Supporting Actor Owen Cooper and Outstanding Supporting Actress Aaron Doherty.

[Lucas Shaw]

You need to sit down Jay.

[Matt Bellany]

Tell me where to sit down.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Forbes raves Adolescence is an all time technical masterpiece. Deadline declares it a world changing phenomenon. For your Emmy consideration, Outstanding Limited Series Adolescence Only on Netflix this episode is.

[Matt Bellany]

Brought to you by Lucasfilm Presenting Andor Season 2 Andor has earned 14 Emmy nominations, including writing, directing and Outstanding Drama Series. Vanity Fair raves that Andor is profoundly resonant. It's the best television of the year. All episodes of Andor are now streaming on Disney. It is Monday, August 25th. A lot of truly bizarre things have happened in Hollywood over the past few years. That's sort of why this show exists. But these are the words I never thought I'd say. The number one movie at the box office this weekend was a movie that has been available at home for two months on Netflix. It's K Pop Demon Hunters, of course, with an estimated 18 million to 20 million in ticket sales that's playing only on a Saturday and Sunday, and only in about 1700 theaters. That works out to about $11,000 per location, a pretty great per screen average considering Netflix only announced the sing along version of the animated movie would be in theaters about two weeks ago, right around the time a song from the soundtrack hit number one on the Billboard chart. The movie didn't play in the country's biggest chain because AMC Theaters refuses to play movies from Netflix, which doesn't give its titles a meaningful exclusive theatrical window. And we only know the box office numbers because rival distributors and exhibitors are leaking the numbers. Netflix, which loves to talk about how transparent it is with data, refused to release box office data for this movie. So lots of issues here. First, why did Netflix do this? Demon Hunters is already on track to become the most viewed movie in the history of Netflix. It's had about 210 million views and counting. And the company's views on movie theaters are pretty well known. Co CEO Ted Sarandos has said many times that people prefer watching movies at home. Theaters are a, quote, outdated concept, end quote for most movie fans, he said at a conference earlier this year. And second, do the numbers this weekend suggest that K Pop Demon Hunters could have been a massive hit in movie theaters when it was released in June? If so, then Sony Pictures, which made the movie and sold it off to Netflix during the dark days of COVID they left a lot of money on the table. Or is this a phenomenon uniquely situated for Netflix, yet another example of the platform creating the sensation rather than the content itself. Lots of room for debate here. So we've got Lukas Shaw back to discuss it all. Today it's K Pop Demon, the phenomenon and what it means for Hollywood. From the ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Lukas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas. Are you excited for our live show this week?

[Lucas Shaw]

I'm so excited, yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, you sound absolutely thrilled.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. How are we gonna pregame it? Are we gonna like, what is, what is the plan?

[Matt Bellany]

We'll send you some topics like a normal show. We'll set well, you know, but people don't realize we don't like, go back and forth a whole lot before the shows. We decide on the topic and we maybe say what our take is, but usually not.

[Lucas Shaw]

You're keeping the special guest until then. You don't wanna divulge in advance.

[Matt Bellany]

We are keeping the special guest so secret because I think the reveal is going to be just such a jaw dropper for the town super fans that they are going to love it. And we're sold out, so we don't need it to juice sales or anything like that. So for those coming to the El Ray, you are in for a big surprise. I don't want to oversell it here. It's not, it's not. It's not like Rupert Murdoch, but it's going to be fun.

[Lucas Shaw]

What are the odds that this appearance ends in fisticuffs?

[Matt Bellany]

I don't know. I'd say strong to quite strong. Okay, pretty. Pretty strong odds. All right. But until then, let's talk about my favorite subject, K Pop Demon Hunters, which has been a fixture in my household for a few weeks now since my 9 year old discovered it. We did not go to the Sing along this weekend. I don't think he knew about it or had other things going on. But big deal. Up to 20 million. 1920 million at the box office, depending on which estimate you believe. My question to you is why did Netflix do this? Why did Ted. Theaters are an outdated concept for most people. Sarandos authorize theaters here.

[Lucas Shaw]

Marketing and buzz. Like why not?

[Matt Bellany]

Because movies in theaters are considered a bigger deal and a cultural moment. The two things that he says they don't need theaters for.

[Lucas Shaw]

Look, it's not about money, right? Because making an extra $20 million from this title doesn't really mean anything to them. They've already gotten.

[Matt Bellany]

You say that although that's all that Sony made off the entire movie. But we'll get to that.

[Lucas Shaw]

But I say that because the amount that they have benefited from sort of people coming on to watch it like the engagement, any probably new subscribers who signed up. This project has more than paid for itself. Cause it was so cheap. I just think that they wanted to continue the momentum.

[Matt Bellany]

Right, but that's the argument for theaters in general. That's why people say you should put your movies in theaters before they go on the service. Because you build momentum, you build awareness. You all the things that theaters offer.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but this is an inversion of that. This thing became a sensation without theaters. It did not need theaters to become it. But because of the musical element, because it's kidding and because of the kind of meek summer, especially August, I think they saw an opportunity. Look, it's the same way in which they would have loved to have a bunch of consumer products around this title. Right. It's a kids project.

[Matt Bellany]

They were sort of caught with their pants down there.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, they weren't. I've had.

[Matt Bellany]

They were. They didn't have them ready to go when the movie was the biggest hit.

[Lucas Shaw]

But not because they didn't want them. They went to toy companies couple years ago. None of the toy companies saw the promise in the project and so they couldn't get a lot of partners for it. And then when it blows up, it's then all of a sudden too late.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, so the fault is the toy companies, not Netflix? Yes.

[Lucas Shaw]

Like Netflix goes to toy companies with a bunch of its kids properties and say what do you think about this? What do you think about this? And the toy companies like Sony, like perhaps even some people at Netflix didn't really believe in it. And so then when it becomes a sensation, you can't kind of fast respond because toys take a while to develop.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they have stuff on their website. They are selling a lot of merch.

[Lucas Shaw]

If it comes out next year, suddenly you've sort of missed the moment and they're not going to. They wouldn't have a sequel ready for a few years. Yeah, they'll sell. They sell like some nice extra things on their website, but that's not like having a proper toy line in Target or Walmart or whatever it may be.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. So I think the other thing going on here is they see a future for this property. They now have a real honest to God family franchise on their hands. And the best way to boost that franchise and get a little bit of extra juice out of it is to put it in theaters where you do get more awareness and it becomes part of communities and people remember things more when they are loading the kids in the station wagon and taking them to the multiplex on an afternoon. It's the same reason Taylor Swift put her movie in theaters, her ERAS tour. She, as a brand of Taylor Swift, had this enormously successful tour that went way beyond what they even thought it could be. And they decided to capitalize and I guess for them, they were more excited about making money on it. But it was also a brand solidifier. You put that movie in theaters, it becomes a cultural moment. Everybody is talking about it. And the Taylor Swift brand benefits from that. And that's what I think they're thinking about here for Demon Hunters. Because this is going to be a property with multiple spinoffs and sequels, consumer products, probably in real life, experiential moment at some point. So that's what they're doing.

[Lucas Shaw]

So I think the ERAS tour is probably the apt comparison. Right. Because when the ERAS tour came out, there was all this noise about oh wow, movie theaters. Like concert tours and movie theaters. Taylor Swift sort of did the deal on her own. Is this a new model? And it kind of turned out it wasn't.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. Also, but keep in mind that movie made 261 million worldwide. That's a little bit more than a two day stunt that generated 20 million.

[Lucas Shaw]

They also chose to try to make it an extended event. Yeah, we're not seeing Netflix try to make 200. I'm not saying it would. I think there's a big difference between taking something that was in live and putting in theaters. There were a lot of people who wanted to see the Taylor Swift tour who couldn't. And so going to see it in a theater was the next best thing. Or they did and they wanted to be part of this moment. And that latter part is what's happening with this. I don't Think you're gonna see, like, millions and millions of fans go to see it in theaters when they can just watch it at home.

[Matt Bellany]

So the ancillary questions here are many. And first and foremost, does this change the Netflix stance on theaters at all?

[Lucas Shaw]

Probably not.

[Matt Bellany]

I agree there. I don't think all of a sudden they are going to start putting movies in theaters either before they're on the service concurrently or two months after. Like, this is a pretty unique situation.

[Lucas Shaw]

Their response to this would be, you guys talk all the time about how we need theaters to create a cultural moment. Guess what? We just did it.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, they would say, we did it, and then we dropped in theaters. As a little bonus, like, we did it on our own.

[Lucas Shaw]

Like, they had probably the movie of the summer on their service.

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, see, that's interesting. They claim they had the two movies of the summer on their service with Happy Gilmore 2 and Demon Hunters, and I would still argue that they had the TV movies of the summer.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think Demon Hunters was the movie of the summer. I don't think Happy Gilmore 2 was the movie of the summer. But the more I've thought about it, the more it feels sort of incontrovertible that K Pop Demon Hunters was the biggest movie of the summer. And you can say it's a TV movie, and that's fine, but it's a movie.

[Matt Bellany]

It cost $100 million. I don't want to say most TV movies do not cost $100 million.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah.

[Matt Bellany]

But I do think that we will see Netflix use theaters for more stunts. I mean, you could call the Greta Gerwig IMAX thing a stunt. And I think that they will be a little bit more open to that kind of thing in the future, perhaps.

[Lucas Shaw]

It just feels obvious to me, like, the vast majority of Netflix movies don't belong in a theater. Right. If they tried to put them there, they would fail. And so I get it. But if they continue to go with this, like, we're gonna do sort of a big event movie every quarter, and they're gonna. I think anytime Netflix spends more than $100 million on a movie, it's, like, worth the experiment with theaters.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, we think so, but Ted doesn't think so.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I know, but I've had this argument with plenty of people at Netflix. It's like, if you're making, like, a $70 million thriller or a $40 million romantic comedy, I mean, I'm like, fine, release it at home. I totally get that. But if you're making Narnia with Greta Gerwig if you're making one of these.

[Matt Bellany]

Massive movies, even Frankenstein, the Guillermo del.

[Lucas Shaw]

Toro movie, like, that movie would probably look and play great in a movie theater.

[Matt Bellany]

And it will for the cultural elites who live in New York and la, where Netflix makes you see it in a theater for awards consideration, because they know that you will take it more seriously if you see it in a theater. And that's the difference there. They want that movie to be considered for awards.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think you're right. When they put things in theaters, it's either to placate talent or to maybe jump on a. This is a unique case where they're sort of like, jumping on a wave and trying to light even more fire and keep it going. Cause this is the most watched, most popular movie Netflix has ever released.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, amazing. And, like, nobody had even heard of it a year ago. And nobody at Netflix thought it would do these numbers. Certainly not at Sony, which we'll get to.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. Think about a lot of the biggest Netflix hits, right? Whether it's Squid Game or Stranger Things. Like, it's not that they come out of nowhere, but nobody ever thinks they're going to be as big as they are. Probably one of the few ones where they were like, yep, that was. It was Bridgerton. Just because it's like, okay, it's Shonda Rhimes. It's the first big show. It's great.

[Matt Bellany]

It's TV. But in movies, like, you look at that top 10 list, and it's a lot of the movies that they spent a lot on, like, Red Notice, you know, what's the Shawn Levy movie with Ryan Reynolds?

[Lucas Shaw]

Which one of those. There's the one that. Adam Project.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, the Adam Project. The Adam Project. They. They. They made that thinking it would do well. But then there's also, like, Carry on, which is sort of, you know, or Damsel. Should AMC have played this movie? My good friend Adam Aaron chose not to play this movie. This is one of the reasons why this only debuted in 1600 theaters, was AMC refused to play it. They're the largest theater chain. They have the biggest and most profitable theaters. For the most part. He does not play Netflix movies because they won't adhere to a established window of exclusivity. But Regal and Cinemark made an exception here, and maybe AMC should have, too.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, they. They clearly should have.

[Matt Bellany]

Well, why do you say that? Why not draw a line in the sand and say, if you don't play our business game, then we're not going to play your stunt game?

[Lucas Shaw]

The problem for the theaters is that they don't have any leverage. Netflix doesn't need them.

[Matt Bellany]

Do they or do they not? You know, the Duffer Brothers left Netflix for Paramount in part because Netflix wouldn't offer them theaters.

[Lucas Shaw]

The Duffer Brothers, the makers of which movie that has ever been released in theaters?

[Matt Bellany]

I hear you, I hear you. But it was a deciding factor. Paramount offered them the chance for movies in theaters.

[Lucas Shaw]

That only matters if Netflix decides. Okay, we have to do theaters. And until Netflix feels like they have to, and they may decide that at some point, but until they do, they don't need the theaters at all. But you know what the theaters do need? Product that people want to see.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. You know what this weekend would have been without this movie? The number one new movie would have been Honey don't, which grossed $3 million. Third Weekend of Weapons did 15. But like, there was not a lot of alluring product this weekend other than this movie.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. So I'm not saying, look, it's not like devastating to AMC that they didn't have it, obviously, but it would have been nice for them to have show the number one movie. Right. Like, people had to choose to go see this movie.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. If you have a 10 year old daughter and you aren't going like, you're in the doghouse. And is $20 million really going to move the needle for AMC maybe these days?

[Lucas Shaw]

No, not at all. Not at all.

[Matt Bellany]

But we did just get numbers for the summer and the summer is not going to crack 4 billion like most thought it would during the heyday of the, you know, July blockbusters. It's going to be down.

[Lucas Shaw]

I need all the annoying social media accounts that come at us for being too pessimistic about the box office to, like, eat crow.

[Matt Bellany]

You need that.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't. I like that they're out there. I think, oh, no, I'm fine with it. I just think that they should acknowledge that they're wrong.

[Matt Bellany]

I embrace the haters. I'm like Shohei Ohtani with the. The Padres hater guy. Yeah, that was.

[Lucas Shaw]

That was great.

[Matt Bellany]

This episode is brought to you by Wayfair. Your home is more than a space. It's where you express yourself. Like, we've all got our movie night set up. I definitely do. I've got my chair, I've got my popcorn. I've got my nice drink area. Everything's set up perfectly. Whatever your vibe, Wayfair has every style for every home. They've got all your home essentials, storage solutions, decor, and more all in one place. I recently got Some great stuff from Wayfair. Ordered some nice outdoor furniture. We got a rug that looks nice with the fire pit. We've got some flower stuff goes all around the outdoor barbecue. Very cool. Lots of entertaining this summer. Wayfair big part of it. Get inspired with room ideas and easy to shop collections. All with everyday ways to save. Shop everything [e-mail] with free and easy delivery straight to your door. That's W-A-F-A-I-R.com Wayfair Every style, every home. We had the AMC angle, but the question then is would this movie have done well in theaters if it had been given an exclusive window pre Netflix?

[Lucas Shaw]

Impossible question to answer. I don't think it would be nearly as big. It wouldn't have the same distribution. What's the biggest movie that Sony's released this year?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, I have those numbers and it's not pretty. It is 28 years later which got to 150 million worldwide.

[Lucas Shaw]

So it is the last place studio for the year, I assume behind Paramount's the second to last. But Sony is last because Paramount had mission so it has to be ahead of them.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes, it is. They had no franchises. They tried to yada yada, a franchise out of Karate Kid and that movie grossed 112 million worldwide. The opening weekend for Karate Kid Legends was about the same as K Pop Demon Hunters two months after being on Netflix.

[Lucas Shaw]

It's totally possible that this movie takes off and is a big hit, but it does have the feel of like of an only on Netflix type phenomenon.

[Matt Bellany]

I agree. And I think when you had these movies like Encanto is a perfect example with very catchy music. That movie didn't really perform in theaters. It was a different time, still Covid stuff, but took off on Disney because it's got very repeatable music in it that is this movie and it's a good story and it appeals to girls and boys as well. But the music is what is powering this.

[Lucas Shaw]

Okay, so let's flip your earlier question a little bit because we've all seen how poorly original animation has been doing at the box office, right? Should companies launch original animation franchises at home and then put the sequels in theaters?

[Matt Bellany]

I would still say no, mostly because of the cost of most of the original animation.

[Lucas Shaw]

A Pixar movie costs $200 million. You can't just drop it on Disney.

[Matt Bellany]

I mean, and I think that even when movies don't perform in theaters that well, they still have the aura of theatricality around them that cause them to Be bigger on the service. Even something like Elio, which did not perform in theaters, will be big on Disney because people know about it. And when you are marketing a movie for theaters, you create awareness that transfers to the digital release. And it's not like these movies are doing nothing like Migration. Got to like 300 or something. And that was original animation. Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

And none of these other companies have a streaming service with the scale of Netflix, so it would be harder to just make them a hit.

[Matt Bellany]

I actually disagree a little. I think that K Pop Demon Hunters had a chance to become a theatrical hit if Sony really nailed the marketing for it and leaned into the K Pop element, leaned into the music, put the music out early, perhaps had twice out there. Like, they could have turned this into something that would have appealed to girls and families right from the beginning and then maybe built it over time. They did turn anyone but you into a sleeper, and they were helped a lot by social media and TikTok and a lot of the things that helped this movie take off. So it is possible.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't know why you're saying we disagree. I agree. It could have been. I just think that the odds of it are less, certainly less than 50%. There's a reason Sony didn't release it, right?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, well, there's lots of reasons. So let's get to the Sony angle here, because I wrote a whole thing about this in my Puck newsletter a couple weeks ago. You can check that out. But Sony, which conceived and developed and produced this movie, will only make $20 million on this movie. It was part of a macro deal that Tom Rothman, the studio head, did in 2021 with Netflix at the height of the depths of. Of the pandemic.

[Lucas Shaw]

The height and the depths in the same one?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, the height and the depth. I know they. They sold a bunch of movies. Netflix guaranteed to buy movies just for the service. And Sony would be able to keep the lights on and keep people employed, and they had movies to make. But the downside was Netflix would control those movies. Control not just the release on Netflix exclusively, but. But also control sequel and ancillary rights to the property. The only thing Sony gets out of this is $20 million fee upfront for this. It was a, you know, percentage of the budget capped at 20. And they have the right to produce additional K Pop Demon Hunter movies in the future. But all of the value of this movie, including the box office receipts for this past weekend, goes to Netflix. So you're Tom Rothman. In hindsight, do you do this deal all over again.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, in hindsight. The benefit of hindsight. Of course not.

[Matt Bellany]

No, you do not. You reserve some rights if this happens to become the biggest movie of all time on Netflix. We could have 50, you know, 100, $200 million payment, and we get the right to put this movie in theaters for sequels. But that's the whole problem here, because we're not talking about this movie. You can never predict what is going to be a smash hit like this. They come out of nowhere. That's why everyone loves Hollywood. It's a great, interesting place to work because of phenomenons like this. But you can protect yourself. You can say, if it becomes the biggest hit on Netflix, we have the right as Sony Pictures to produce the sequel for theaters. Because that's where the value is here. Even if Encanto became a phenomenon on Disney, Disney, if they do it in Kanto 2, sure as hell is going to put that movie in theaters and not just on Disney. And if Sony had the right to put K pop Demon Hunters 2 in theaters now, it would probably make $500 million at least.

[Lucas Shaw]

You think so?

[Matt Bellany]

Oh, yeah. You don't probably.

[Lucas Shaw]

But the new movie wouldn't come for three or four years. So will there still be as much interest in it? I don't know. And see, I mean, it's to the earlier question I asked about, like, what studios should do. What is, have we seen an example of an at home property that is really successful in theaters? And let's not like go back, like, Mission Impossible was originally a TV show. I mean, like, recent property that was either a TV show or a TV movie that then blew up at theaters. I don't know the answer. If there's a really obvious answer, someone can tell me and I'll say it.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I mean, the best. Like, I know it's not the same, but like, Moana is a perfect example. I know it was released in theaters.

[Lucas Shaw]

And it did well, but that was a theatrical movie.

[Matt Bellany]

I know it did well, but that movie became a phenomenon on Disney and in home video, and it grossed 640 million worldwide. The original, the sequel got to a billion. Not because it was a great movie, but because every kid has watched it on home video.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, I guess the answer to that, and this is the boring answer, but it's what most people would agree with is like, it's about execution. Right? If they make a good sequel that has a bunch of catchy songs again, then yeah, I think it would do well.

[Matt Bellany]

See, I disagree. I think the sequel is not execution dependent. That's why you do the sequel. I think that because the first one is so beloved, it's going to get to $500 million even if it's okay. That's why you do it.

[Lucas Shaw]

Fair. I think that's true for some things, but not all.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, you're just saying maybe in three years, when all the 10 year olds or 13 year olds care about things other than K Pop, that it will be different. This is the equivalent of Minion nostalgia that powers those movies. For the next 10 years, there's going to be K Pop Demon Hunter movies in theaters. And kids that were 10 when they saw the original are going to be in college and be like, you know what? I'd like to relive that. Maybe I'll wear a suit and go see K pop demon hunters 5. Craig, do we miss anything here? You have not seen this movie, have you? This is not for you.

[Craig Horleback]

No, you told me to watch it.

[Matt Bellany]

I might.

[Craig Horleback]

It's been a busy couple of weeks, but I will watch it sometime soon.

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah, I don't think you'll love it, but it's got very catchy music in it.

[Craig Horleback]

Yeah, I think I'll be able to appreciate it. What do you think Ted Sarandis would think if he listens to this conversation between you two?

[Matt Bellany]

Ask Lucas. He has a pretty ongoing text chain with Lucas as Netflix's favorite reporter.

[Craig Horleback]

What is he going to say to you, Lucas, in your text tonight at midnight?

[Matt Bellany]

Yeah. When you're playing video games and texting each other while you're playing.

[Lucas Shaw]

That does not happen. But I don't know. I mean, Matt sort of addressed some of what I feel like Netflix feels about this movie and the summer, which is that they have had these two huge hits without having to put them in theaters. And we give them so much shit for not creating cultural moments, but they did.

[Matt Bellany]

He's gonna say, what a flex. Yeah, Not. Not in those words, but that's what he said.

[Lucas Shaw]

We didn't need theaters.

[Matt Bellany]

Right.

[Lucas Shaw]

We.

[Matt Bellany]

We will do it when it suits us. And we can. We can drop a $20 million weekend. Like, it's nobody's. Like, we're just, you know, walking down the street. It doesn't matter. We'll just do it when we want to.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right? It's great marketing. Like, I feel like this whole thing. I haven't actually had a conversation with the folks at Netflix about it, but I feel like, if anything, I would guess that it came from the cmo, not from the film division.

[Matt Bellany]

And here's the thing is, they're gonna put the sing along version on Netflix, so it's great marketing for that version. Now, if you went to the theater and had a great time, you can then watch the sing along version at home.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, that's sounds like the way for Craig to experience it for the first time.

[Matt Bellany]

It does. Good call. You need to go to your local karaoke bar, go to the Gaslight or whatever you're going, and ask for the K Pop Demon Hunters sing along version. Craig, you and the cast of Euphoria can just sing those songs all night.

[Craig Horleback]

That's great. It is my wife's birthday this weekend, so I'll suggest that.

[Matt Bellany]

There you go. All right, Lucas, thank you.

[Lucas Shaw]

Thanks, Matt.

[Matt Bellany]

We are back with the call sheet. My daily prediction. Craig, I had a pretty big interview in my newsletter. It was not a podcast interview. Unfortunately, listeners of the town cannot listen to it. You have to subscribe to my Puck newsletter to get it. But the one and only Lorne Michaels talked to me last week. Pretty interesting. Like, as you know, I'm a Lauren Ologist. This is a pro SNL podcast. Lauren had some things to say.

[Craig Horleback]

He did. What was your biggest takeaway after speaking with him?

[Matt Bellany]

Good question. I asked him about the Colbert situation and whether there would be any impact on on the shows that he manages. In addition to snl, he has Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers. He claimed that he's been assured by Brian Roberts or the powers that be at Comcast that those shows are safe for now and those guys are signed through 28 and they're not going to be canceled. And I think that may have been a message to the Comcast people, like, back off, do not come after us. And he called Brian Roberts a man of great integrity, sort of complimenting him. And Lauren does not do anything by accident. I think that was a very big like, we're doing our thing. You guys. Let us do our thing and don't come after us. The better question is what is going on with SNL this season? Because Lauren told me that he's making decisions this weekend, this past weekend, that this week we will know what's going on for SNL. 51 wouldn't tell me what he was thinking, but that leaves a lot of speculation and people have been going nuts online about what is going to happen to SNL this season. I think that there is going to be a pretty significant cast turnover. I mean, Lauren basically said he needs to reinvent after the 50th anniversary. So I think that's going to lead to a number of veterans and some featured players exiting the show.

[Craig Horleback]

So let's. Let's turn this into a gambling line, because this show is produced by the Ringer.

[Matt Bellany]

Everything is a gambling line.

[Craig Horleback]

Yeah. So the most recent large overhaul happened in 2022 after season 47. Eight cast members left. That was when Kate McKinnon and AD Bryant and all them left heading into season 51. What do you want to set the line at? Should we say four and a half? Five and a half. What do you think is the appropriate line to take?

[Matt Bellany]

Well, there are 17 current cast members. If you count the featured players, I think it's fair to say five and a half.

[Craig Horleback]

Yeah, I think.

[Matt Bellany]

I think we can go there and. And to be honest, I'm going to take the over, really. Five and a half. I am. I think Lauren is serious. I think that everything was leading up to the 50th. People maybe stayed a year or two longer than they would have in order to be part of that 50th anniversary celebration cast.

[Craig Horleback]

And he didn't want to overshadow the 50th. Try out a bunch of new people. Maybe they don't pan out, and then you kind of have a weird situation heading into the anniversary.

[Matt Bellany]

He basically told me that, that he wanted the focus to be on the guest stars and the hoopla around the 50th last season. So I think it's not going to be a firing squad. I don't think it's going to be a 1995 situation where everyone's gone and then they bring in an entirely new cast. Or 86. Was it where they burned the studio down? They burned the studio down and only John Lovett survived. But I think it's going to be more than five. So I'm going to. I'm going to take the over now. I don't want to get into who. I have my guesses. I think it's meant to. To speculate about whether people are going to get fired or not. But we know that some of these cast members have been there a while. I mean, obviously Keenan has been there forever. I don't know if he's going or not. But Che and Jost have been doing Weekend Update for a decade now. That's a long time.

[Craig Horleback]

More than a decade. They've been doing it for, I believe, 14 or 15 years. They're the longest tenured Weekend Update host in the history of snl.

[Matt Bellany]

Yes. By a long shot.

[Craig Horleback]

So do you think there is a switch up by. For at least one seat at Weekend Update?

[Matt Bellany]

You're putting me on the spot here. I know that scenarios that have been discussed have people like Michael Longfellow taking over Sarah Sherman.

[Craig Horleback]

I would like to throw my weight around for Sarah Sherman as I know I have a huge influence on the SNL casting decisions. I think Sarah Sherman is the choice for Weekend Update.

[Matt Bellany]

I think that it's time. Doesn't mean Lauren will do it. He loves those guys so much. He name checked Che in my interview as someone that he loves. I do think they're going to make a change at Update.

[Lucas Shaw]

I just do.

[Matt Bellany]

And some of these others that have been there, you know, Heidi Gardner, Bowen Yang, Ego Wodom, Mikey Day, all of those people are in play. Even Chloe Feynman, who we love, Friend of the town. She has been posting a lot of old sketches on Instagram which might suggest that she's ready to go. She's been.

[Craig Horleback]

She's also acting a lot. She's doing a lot of movies.

[Matt Bellany]

Totally. And she's been there since 2019. So maybe she's ready. I hope not. I particularly love her, but I think I'm going to take the over. How about you?

[Craig Horleback]

Yeah, I think there is going to be a switch at the update desk.

[Matt Bellany]

Are you taking the over on Five and a half, though?

[Craig Horleback]

Yeah, I think I will.

[Matt Bellany]

You will.

[Craig Horleback]

I'll join you. Yeah, I'll join you.

[Matt Bellany]

We will see. We'll know this week, apparently. So it's coming soon. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Greg Horleback, art director Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.