Will the Comcast-NBCU Split Lead to Another Huge Hollywood Deal?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Will the Comcast-NBCU Split Lead to Another Huge Hollywood Deal?"

The Town with Matthew Belloni (The Ringer) – June 29, 2026
Guests: Matt Belloni (host), Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horbeck (producer)

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Main Theme

This episode unpacks Comcast's decision to spin off NBCUniversal (NBCU) into a separate publicly traded company, examining the motivations, industry implications, and the potential for further media mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The conversation explores whether this marks the end of Hollywood’s synergy era, who might want to buy or merge with NBCU, and how legacy media companies are being replaced by tech giants.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context: The Comcast-NBCU Split

• What Happened: Comcast is spinning off NBCUniversal, including NBC, Peacock, Sky, Universal Studios, and theme parks, into a new company.
• Why Now: Comcast's stock is down nearly 30% year-over-year and stagnant over the last decade. Investors and analysts have pushed for a dramatic change ("they kind of need to do something" – [02:15]).
• Recent Precedents: Similar to the Warner Bros. Discovery split, which triggered a lucrative bidding war, Comcast aims to unlock more value and "optionality" by splitting apart its media and connectivity operations.

2. Is This the End of 'Synergy' in Hollywood?

• Comcast's failed vertical integration reflects a larger industry pattern: AT&T, Verizon, and now Comcast have all struggled to combine distribution (cable/wireless) with content (studios/networks).
• Quote: "This is an indictment of the entire synergy argument... we've seen it now where AT&T couldn't make distribution and content work, Verizon couldn't make distribution and content work. And now Comcast is essentially saying, we can't really make this work." – Matt Belloni ([06:33])

3. What Happens Next? M&A and Industry Consolidation

• NBCU: Buyer or Seller? Spinning off media assets theoretically prepares them for a sale or for new deals.
• Potential Suitors:
  • Tech Giants: Netflix and Apple could show interest, especially in Universal Studios’ IP and theme parks.
  • Industry Rumors: A "tile" for Peacock on Netflix as a joint venture or licensing/distribution is discussed ([25:04]).
  • Consolidation: The move might prompt mergers—e.g., Charter (a Comcast competitor) and Cox could form a mega-cable company, leaving NBCU to merge with a tech giant.
• Regulatory Hurdles: Approval from the Trump administration is required, and politics (e.g., Trump’s feelings about Comcast/MSNBC) may shape outcomes ([11:45]).
• Legacy Roll-Ups: Discussion of whether companies like the Ellison family could roll up NBCU with other Hollywood players, creating a "legacy Hollywood" competitor to the tech firms ([15:37]).

4. The Fate of Streaming and Theme Parks

• Peacock’s Uncertain Future: While Comcast is restructuring, there’s no solution yet for their underperforming streaming platform Peacock.
• Universal Theme Parks: Major asset that could interest buyers like Netflix looking to expand into "experiential" businesses beyond digital content ([13:32]).

5. Changing of the Guard: Media’s New Power Players

• The hosts reflect on the decline of traditional Hollywood studios and the ascendance of new giants like Netflix, Apple, and Amazon.
• Quote: "All the media companies that sort of ran the world for so long are sort of slowly disappearing or maybe rapidly disappearing." – Lucas Shaw ([14:43])
• List of past major studios (Fox, Warner, Universal, Sony, CBS) now overshadowed by tech companies.

6. Who’s Leading NBCUniversal?

• Mike Cavanagh, formerly co-CEO of Comcast and a Wall Street veteran, will head NBCU post-spinoff. The group questions if this solves the perceived leadership drift.
• Quote: "He is in charge of this entity if it's spun off, but if it's not spun off and it's sold, then he gets a gigantic payout and goes away." – Matt Belloni ([18:36])

7. Brian Roberts’ Role

• Comcast’s longtime CEO Brian Roberts is “stepping down," but possibly moving into a John Malone-like role: less day-to-day work, but keeping influence over strategic decisions and as a major shareholder ([19:03]).

8. Does NBCU Have Ammo to Compete?

• Post-breakup, NBCU is smaller, especially without cable cashflow. Competitive in film/parks, but streaming (Peacock) and big sports rights (e.g., Sunday Night Football) may be harder to secure.
• Quote: "How is this NBCUniversal entity going to compete in the future for sports rights and for big deals...?" – Matt Belloni ([22:10])
• Comparison to Warner Bros. Discovery and concerns about debt, scale, and cash flow.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hollywood's Changing Landscape:
  "All of the media companies that sort of ran the world for so long are sort of slowly disappearing or maybe rapidly disappearing." – Lucas Shaw ([14:43])
• On Tech’s Takeover:
  "They've been replaced by Netflix, Amazon, Apple basically and Google." – Peter Kafka ([15:07])
• On Peacock’s Future:
  "There's been a rumor going around that Peacock is going to become a tile on Netflix. ...That's not really a streaming joint venture. That is Netflix absorbing Peacock." – Lucas Shaw ([25:04], [25:26])
• On Regulatory Chaos:
  "Can you imagine that? I think Lina Khan's head would explode." – Peter Kafka (re: legacy media roll-up) ([15:37])
• On M&A Strategy:
  "If I'm trying to fish for a deal, I feel like you try to make the Netflix-NBC Universal thing happen." – Lucas Shaw ([26:43])

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Important Timestamps

• [02:13] – Comcast’s stock performance and rationale for splitting
• [05:36] – Analysis of why Comcast’s vertical integration failed
• [08:08] – “Distribution is not enough; global scale is a challenge”
• [10:16] – Analyst predictions on further M&A and market reactions
• [13:32] – Netflix’s possible interest in Universal theme parks
• [15:37] – The ongoing disappearance of legacy media giants
• [18:10] – Mike Cavanagh's future role at NBCU
• [19:03] – Brian Roberts modeled after John Malone’s holding company structure
• [22:10] – Challenges for NBCU's ability to compete without Comcast’s cash flow
• [25:04] – Joint venture speculation: Peacock possibly integrated into Netflix
• [26:43] – Hypothetical banker’s pitch for the next big Hollywood deal

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Tone & Closing

The conversation blends analysis, insider industry knowledge, and light humor as the hosts consider both the financial logic and the emotional symbolism of a vanishing old-guard Hollywood. There’s a sense that the industry’s tectonic shifts are far from over. The hosts repeatedly note we're at a crossroads: NBCU could become a powerful standalone media/experiential company or merely the next prized asset for Silicon Valley or a remnant of media’s past.

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For listeners wanting the bottom line:
Comcast's spin-off of NBCUniversal is not just a corporate restructure—it’s a signpost in Hollywood’s transformation, paving the way for huge mergers, the possible takeover of legacy studios by tech giants, and a final act in the era of cable/content synergy.

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Transcript

[Matt Belloni]

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[Peter Kafka]

It is Monday, June 29, never a dull moment in the business these days. We've got another studio sale. Well, not a sale really, a spinoff. Comcast is separating NBCUniversal, creating two publicly traded companies. One for the connectivity business, that's Comcast Wireless and cable, and a new unit for the media business, that's NBC, Peacock, Sky, Sky Overseas and the Universal studio and theme park business that it acquired about 15 years ago. Remember, Comcast already spun off its cable networks into Versant earlier this year. And now, according to Comcast leadership, NBCU on its own will be quote, poised for growth. Maybe. Or maybe this is a prelude to another sale. The Roberts family will retain control of both companies. So the question is, why are they doing this?

[Matt Belloni]

First off, the stock is down about

[Peter Kafka]

30% over the past year and has been stagnant for more than a decade. So many analysts, including people on this show, have noted that they kind of need to do something. And obviously they're seeing what happened with Warner Brothers. Discovery leadership there moved to split that company into a pure play studio and streaming unit and Warner's was rewarded by a bidding war that included Netflix and Comcast and ultimately was won by Paramount at a huge premium. But a move like this could open the floodgates of more M and A and media reshaping the content landscape at a time of pretty massive upheaval. And of course, this spinoff involves NBC, the broadcast network, so it must be approved by the Trump administration, which is no fan of Comcast or Brian Roberts, thanks to Ms. Now, this is not about separating what we built together, roberts, the current CEO stepping down, told investors this morning. It's about positioning two exceptional businesses to move forward with greater focus, agility, and the ability to fully capitalize on the opportunities ahead. Okay, so what does this mean for Comcast's vast Hollywood operation? Everything from the Tonight show to the Minions and the Odyssey. And is NBC Universal now a buyer or a seller in the frenzy to compete with big tech? We've got Lucas Shaw, our Monday guy from Bloomberg. He's back today and we're going to go into it. It's the spinoff of NBCUniversal. And does this put another studio in play from the ringer and puck? I'm Matt Bellany and this is the town. Okay. We are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy back from his wedding. Lucas, how is your wedding? I am not offended that Craig and I were not invited.

[Craig Horbeck]

I think the invite might still be in the mail.

[Peter Kafka]

No, no, no, Craig, I am. I know it was a small wedding. I am 100% not offended. The only. And I would actually like to thank you for not inviting Craig and not me. That I would have been very offended by.

[Lucas Shaw]

That would have been very understandable.

[Craig Horbeck]

It would have made sense if you invited Matt and not me. That would have been acceptable.

[Peter Kafka]

Craig is 10 times more fun at weddings, so I would have understood a little bit. But I thank you for not inviting both of us.

[Lucas Shaw]

There were zero people who I whom I know professionally who were in at my wedding.

[Peter Kafka]

Well, besides the entire C suite of Netflix, I assume you invited them.

[Lucas Shaw]

None of them were invited. I did have one person at a certain point ask who, like, knew nothing, was like, so you're going to invite Ted Sarandos to your wedding? And I was like, no, that is not going to happen.

[Peter Kafka]

No, nor would he go.

[Lucas Shaw]

Nor would he go.

[Peter Kafka]

It would just be awkward. He'd have to get you a gift. It would be very awkward. All right, welcome back. And luckily for US News, dropped this morning. Pretty big news. This, to me is pretty transformational. Comcast splitting off NBCUniversal into its own separate company that will trade and be controlled by the Roberts family. What is going on here? Is this just deal envy? They saw what happened to Warner Brothers Discovery and the mere prospect of splitting the company up and into a pure play streamer and television, that caused a bidding war to occur and an outrageous price to be paid. Is this deal envy by the Roberts family or is this something more strategic?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, deal envy can be strategic, but I think this is a company that's been in need of some kind of dramatic change for a little while. Right. Their stock has been going down for years. You know, their core business, which is connectivity, cable, broadband, wireless. You know, the cable business, as we all know, has been in freefall. Wireless has kind of stopped growing. There's a bunch of competition from phone companies and the people who are invested in Comcast for that, especially the last few years, as sort of their optimism about the media business has gone down. They're just like, why do you own this entertainment business? How does this help you win when you're under a lot of threat with connectivity? And same on the media side. I mean, they already took the step of spinning off Versant. I just think they looked at it and said we can trade at a higher multiple and have more optionality if we separate them, because, you know, they'd explored other deals and not done them.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, they've tried everything they could possibly try with this company together to try to raise that share price, and nothing's worked. You know, they've had great years at the movie studio. The parks business is going great. The, you know, television stuff was siphoned off to the loser cable networks, and now they have NBC, which is potentially a stable business going forward. Nothing worked. And the question then becomes, is this an indictment of the entire synergy argument, the Comcast Symphony and the kind of vertical integration argument that has been so prevalent in Hollywood for the past 20 years? And we've seen it now where AT&T couldn't make distribution and content work, Verizon couldn't make distribution and content work. And now Comcast is essentially saying, we can't really make this work.

[Lucas Shaw]

They were always held up as the one successful example.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, we've talked about it. Because it seems on the surface that it's worked.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah. And I think it worked for a time and then it didn't. And it's also up for debate, you know, when we say it worked, the company did well, but were they really benefiting from being part of the same? And again, maybe they were. At this point, it certainly seems like they're not. And the logical question is, what do they do now? Is splitting it really all they're trying to do or is this teeing them up for some next move?

[Peter Kafka]

Yes, and we will get there because I think this is a sign of forces beyond the initial business strategy behind this company. Whereas they said if in an age where distribution matters and we are a main distributor of content via Comcast, it's meaningful to own all this media asset stuff now when the means of distribution are so far beyond and they have struggled with global scale. This company is not global. It's in the same way that many of their competitors are. And Peacock is really not a scaled player.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, in fairness, in their main business, which is connectivity, there basically aren't global companies. Maybe Starlink is sort of being that. But if you think about phone companies, Internet companies, cable companies, it tends to be domestic or at least regional. Right. You'll have a.

[Peter Kafka]

But Starlink wants to be global and, and it's pushing down their share price because everyone's looking at this behemoth owned by Elon Musk and saying, why wouldn't Starlink kick their ass?

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. Or it's going down because of the competition from the Verizon's and T mobiles and AT&TS of the world, which have siphoned away some of their customers. But yeah, I mean, look, it's hard for them to not look at the processes they've just been through where they were interested in Warner Brothers Discovery and just didn't have the balance sheet to really compete with Netflix or the Allison family. I think they, you know, they took a look at Roku and decided it wasn't really in their best interest, but also that it was, you know, they wanted too much money and so now they have to. You know, this is I guess akin to what Warner Brothers did, right, where they decided to try to. They were fine, they're fine going this way. They think it'll unlock value because the people who want to invest in Comcast can do that. People who want to invest in NBCUniversal can do that. And if, oh, by the way, sometime in the next six to 12 months someone comes along and wants to try to buy one of them, it's much cleaner to do that. Because the type of company that wants to buy NBC Universal doesn't want to own Comcast and vice versa.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, and that's a key point here because Peter Supino, the analyst, he wrote today in a note, he said, we doubt that this breakup will occur. Instead, we expect one or both Comcast units to merge with peers or competitors. That's what Warner's did. Right. The mere prospect of a split awakened Netflix, awakened these other companies to say, oh, these are great assets that are being undervalued as part of this conglomerate. We can swoop in and get these. The stock of Charter went up. That's a Comcast competitor. The stock of Charter went up today because the street thinks that if Comcast is separated from NBCUniversal, it's a prime target to merge with Charter, which is already trying to merge with Cox to create one mega cable connectivity company, perhaps even a national either duopoly or monopoly over this. And NBC Universal will be left to merge with Netflix or Apple or one of these other companies. And it's the same thing we went through with Warner's where one of them will all, one of them will ultimately win out and absorb the NBC Universal studio.

[Lucas Shaw]

We will all get our cable or Internet from one company or one company

[Peter Kafka]

competing with Starlink and competing with some of these other big tech player companies. And it'll be one sort of legacy roll up, competing with those.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, this split they can kind of do pretty easily. But in terms of future M and A, do you think that, that the Trump administration would try to thwart the Roberts family from doing anything?

[Peter Kafka]

I think that it would be difficult. I mean, obviously Trump doesn't like the Roberts family because msc, MSNBC now, MSNBC now or MSN now. And if they could muck that up, perhaps. But also, perhaps there's a scenario where NBC goes to another buyer. If Netflix looks at these assets and says, yes, we would like the studio, we would like the branded content from Bravo, we would like the theme park business, we, we do not want NBC a broadcaster. Maybe that becomes an opportunity to spin that out from the spinoff and get someone more Trump friendly to buy it and grease that deal.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, well, I actually think that NBC Universal is just as good a fit for Netflix as Warner Brothers Discovery was. Whether they are going to.

[Peter Kafka]

Oh, it's better. Yeah, I think it's actually better. Other than NBC, the theme park business is something that Netflix, I think, would like because I've said this before on the show. If you look at the Disney theme park business, that is 100% branded Disney content, it's going to be very difficult for anyone else to buy that and incorporate. But the Universal parks, most of the IP in those parks is not Universal ip. It's Transformers, it's Simpsons, it's Harry Potter. Netflix could buy that and then slowly take it over. Transformers become Stranger Things, Simpsons Ride becomes the Bridgerton Ride, and That's a much better way for Netflix to get into experiential in a bigger way and then have all these amazing film properties that they could exploit.

[Lucas Shaw]

Of course, whether Netflix shareholders are keen for them to do a deal given that they didn't want the Warner Brothers deal. We'll see about that.

[Peter Kafka]

I mean, do you think they'll stop? I mean Netflix stock is still down 30, 40% from before they went after Warner's. The shareholders have pretty clearly said they didn't like that. Or at least that pursuit opened up the fears of a slowdown at Netflix.

[Lucas Shaw]

I think it's.

[Peter Kafka]

You could make the argument that it makes them a little bit more keen to go after IP because of the engagement problems they may be having.

[Lucas Shaw]

Could be. I don't know that that necessarily solves the question for them, but it's as much as Netflix said that Warner Brothers was a one off thing, this has always been the other shoe to drop. The other thing hanging out there. There is one other can. I want to take a step back though. When you think about the consolidation and the merger and just like all the stuff that's happening, it doesn't it feel like all of the, like all of the media companies that sort of ran the world for so long are sort of slowly disappearing or maybe rapidly disappearing?

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

Think about when you were at thr, when you started and like what were like the six or seven biggest companies that you guys.

[Peter Kafka]

I mean Fox was in there, Fox Time Warner was in there.

[Lucas Shaw]

Warner Brothers about to be gone.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

Universal.

[Peter Kafka]

NBC Universal was owned by GE at the time, but it was a major player. You know, Sony was. I mean cbs.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah.

[Peter Kafka]

And they've been replaced by Netflix, Amazon,

[Lucas Shaw]

Apple basically and Google.

[Peter Kafka]

And those are the only ones that are in the professionally produced content business. YouTube and meta and you know, but that's the landscape we're in right now.

[Lucas Shaw]

I totally agree and we've covered it.

[Peter Kafka]

I just.

[Lucas Shaw]

When these, when these big moments happen, I sometimes have to take take a step back and think about it. Especially because the Warner Brothers thing is ongoing and who knows now what's going to happen with Universal. It's just very symbolic of sort of what has happened to this industry over the last 15 or 20 years.

[Peter Kafka]

And it begs the question, could the Ellisons go after NBC Universal and make it a full legacy? Hollywood roll up to compete with big tech? Can you imagine that? I think Lina Khan's head would explode.

[Lucas Shaw]

I don't understand how regulators would allow that to happen.

[Peter Kafka]

I don't either. I mean two broadcast networks and two broadcast networks.

[Lucas Shaw]

Three major studios.

[Peter Kafka]

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[Lucas Shaw]

all surprised that it is Mike Kavanaugh, currently co CEO of Comcast? Sort of. Formerly a Wall street guy who's going to be the CEO of NBC Universal. And does that solve the sense of strategic drift that that company has had over the last couple of years where there hasn't? They've said he's the leader, but people but because he's also been running Comcast, people haven't really felt like he's the leader.

[Peter Kafka]

Well, I think you sort of answered your own question, is that he is the gunner Wiedenfels of this scenario where he is in charge of this entity if it's spun off, but if it's not spun off and it's sold, then he gets a gigantic payout and goes away. And it's the most interesting thing about this entire transaction from a people perspective is that Brian Roberts is stepping down as CEO.

[Lucas Shaw]

You used the phrase stepping down. I don't want to be semantic, but I sort of view it as like stepping down, stepping up or stepping aside,

[Peter Kafka]

where

[Lucas Shaw]

it's a little like Brian Roberts is pretty friendly with John Malone. And John Malone spent years sitting on top of this constellation of businesses where he had some of live nation and SiriusXM and the Atlanta Braves and Formula One and all this other stuff. And he wasn't really the CEO of anything, but he was in a lot of ways the ultimate decision maker of sort of big strategic moves at those places. And he sat on all the boards. And you also see a guy like Barry Diller who sort of bought and sold and aggregated a bunch of companies. And so maybe that's what Brian Roberts is seeing for himself, where he's effectively split one company into three. And he can have different leaders for all of them, but his family is still a major shareholder in all of them and he's a major decider and he can be, he can work 20% less hard.

[Peter Kafka]

I know he's 67 years old. So does that mean that in five years these three companies will still exist in the way that they are today? I mean, it seems to me that these companies are positioned to either be buyers or sellers. And we don't know whether NBCUniversal is a buyer or a seller at this point.

[Lucas Shaw]

No, I think it would be surprising if they were looked exactly the same as they did five years from now. And I think that Brian Roberts and Mike Kavanaugh would, would, would own that. Right. They, they, they split off Versant and said, okay, it might go and buy other businesses in the cable digital media space. Now NBC Universal is sort of an unencumbered entertainment company that could go and try and hoover up some of the other businesses, although I don't know why it would buy a bunch of cable networks since it already spun off cable networks.

[Peter Kafka]

I know people are joking that they're going to buy Versant, that I don't think that's going to happen.

[Lucas Shaw]

But, but, and I don't know why they'd suddenly be a buyer for Lionsgate. I don't know what that gets them, but they could, they could certainly do something. And if they don't, if they don't buy something, it could be appealing for someone else. We already talked about Netflix and yeah, the connectivity business is, is now rid of this asset that most of its investors didn't want it to have at this point.

[Peter Kafka]

But what is there for NBCUniversal to buy that's meaningful, like Lionsgate? Okay, whatever. They already have a way better studio. They'd have a bigger library. Cool.

[Lucas Shaw]

What else is that that doesn't help them with? The number one goal for NBC Universal is very clear. Right. They have a very successful studio and a very successful parks business. And the NBC helps them with sports and is, you know, NBC and Bravo are fine. Their streaming business has been a disaster. They say it's about to be profitable. We'll see if it stays that way when they end up having to pay more for the NFL. But it's figuring out what to do in streaming. So does that mean that they. They buy something else in streaming? I don't know. They have not effectively outlined what the strategy is for that business.

[Peter Kafka]

And here's the issue, and I think this is the core problem that they have now is that without all the revenue from the cable and connectivity business and without all of the cash flow that gets thrown off of the cable networks, how is this NBCUniversal entity going to compete in the future for sports rights and for big deals like the Taylor Sheridan deal that they've already done. They want to invest in making NBC Universal a big competitor. But how is this not just a. Another version of Warner Discovery that was too small and had too little cash flow to really compete?

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, the problem for Warner Brothers Discovery was all the debt.

[Peter Kafka]

The debt.

[Lucas Shaw]

And so some of this also had

[Peter Kafka]

the cash flow from the networks that NBCUniversal is not going to have because those are adverse.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yes, but NBCUniversal still has NBC and Bravo and they also have the parks business, which generates a meaningful amount of cash. It is a smaller company. Is it going to be if they go head to head on something with Netflix or Amazon, are they going to have. Or Apple, Are they going to. Or even Disney, although Disney doesn't do that much of that. Are they going to have the advantage? Probably not. They will be the smallest of those players. That seems like a bigger issue for sports than it does for entertainment.

[Peter Kafka]

If I'm looking at Sunday Night Football right now and I'm Netflix, I start salivating. Because all of a sudden, NBCUniversal is a much smaller company and maybe isn't going to be able to. To keep Sunday Night Football when the NFL demands a huge rights increase and NFL wants that weekly number one show event of the week to power its ad business.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, certainly could be. Or they could split the rights in some way.

[Peter Kafka]

I think that's a meaningful thing because NBC has spent the past five years,

[Lucas Shaw]

they've made Peacock all about sports, and now they have a lot less money to spend. And like the NBA deal, even though the ratings for the Finals and the playoffs were good, you know, there are a lot of people who've questioned whether it was worth it, considering what they get in the regular season out of those games.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, and this transaction doesn't really solve the Peacock problem. I mean, we knew NBC was going to do something. We knew Comcast was going to do something here, but I thought whatever they did would come with a quasi solution, a joint venture, a sale or something of Peacock. And this isn't that. They still gotta figure out the Peacock question.

[Lucas Shaw]

Well, I've never understood how the joint venture stuff works. I don't know how you solve. I don't know how you solve the streaming question. The answers that other people have had have basically been huge mergers. Right. Paramount and Warner Brothers combining, Fox and Roku combining. This is how people have chosen to address being subscale in streaming.

[Peter Kafka]

Well, there's been a rumor going around that Peacock is going to become a tile on Netflix. And there would be some kind of a joint venture or arrangement where Peacock goes global via Netflix like they've done with those cable channels in Europe. And then there's a revenue share or some kind of data share or something that makes it worthwhile for both sides.

[Lucas Shaw]

I hear you, but my feeling on that is that's not really a streaming joint venture. That is Netflix absorbing Peacock.

[Peter Kafka]

Except they don't own it.

[Lucas Shaw]

They don't own it, but it's like a massive licensing deal.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, it's a distribution arrangement.

[Lucas Shaw]

Right. It's Netflix doing Amazon channels with Comcast streaming service. But also if you.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah.

[Lucas Shaw]

Anyways, those types of things are. They're called joint ventures. But ultimately someone has to be in control. And Netflix is in control in that scenario.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, except they don't own it. And the Roberts family would get to say, we still own these assets, even though they've had to bend the knee.

[Lucas Shaw]

And it would make Peacock profitable because they'd make hundreds of millions of dollars, presumably, or billions of dollars a year from the licensing which they could put under the peacock bottom line.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah. So maybe that'll still happen. So if you're a banker, what deal do you pitch? What deal? Or is this all preordained that this is the step, step three of a five step transformation process that began with spinning off Versant and is going to end with a new media conglomerate or with Comcast simply going away?

[Lucas Shaw]

I mean, Comcast Charter is the one that's the loudest right now. It doesn't really solve the fundamental challenge for either business, but it does give them enough scale to just be seemingly impregnable. Impregnable, yeah. But if I'm trying to fish for a deal, I feel like you try to make the Netflix and Beast Universal thing happen. You call up Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters and say, I know you didn't and I know you walked away from the other one. What about this one, David Ellison? Who was your two competitors in that? One of them's off the table and the other one you're now swallowing. So who's really going to compete with you for this? That's probably what I would do.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah. And the question then becomes, how open are Ted and Greg to doing another

[Lucas Shaw]

deal and how willing is in that scenario? Like Brian is doing all this stuff where the Roberts family still retains a lot of control and if they did a charter deal, which. Which by the way was. Has been part of the Malone portfolio, that could also be. Is that something that they could still have some control over? You do the Netflix steal your app? So is he ready to say, you know, I don't need to own Entertainment's been nice, but I don't need it anymore.

[Craig Horbeck]

Would NBCU be much more expensive than Warner Brothers was?

[Peter Kafka]

Good question. The market cap of the whole company right now is about 85 billion or it was before the stock went up today.

[Lucas Shaw]

Yeah, but remember what Warner Brothers market cap was and then what it traded for.

[Peter Kafka]

Exactly. It would all depend on who else is in. If it's one buyer, Netflix is not going to overpay like they like Paramount did.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah. Warner Brothers felt more limited. Right. Like their sports rights weren't as good. They don't have a theme park business like NBCU feels a little bit more varied.

[Lucas Shaw]

I haven't done the numbers in a while, but I believe that NBC Universal is larger than Warner Brothers and would

[Peter Kafka]

command a lot more for the reasons

[Lucas Shaw]

you just said and is not making most of its money from a shrinking business.

[Matt Belloni]

Right.

[Peter Kafka]

At least not anymore. They got rid of that.

[Lucas Shaw]

Not anymore.

[Peter Kafka]

All right. Well, another fascinating development. Thank you, Lucas.

[Lucas Shaw]

Thanks, man.

[Peter Kafka]

All right, we are back with the call sheet. Craig, did you see this investment news? Sony is investing in this shared viewing experience company, Kosm.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, Cosm. I never loved the name of Kosm but yes. So now Sony has Alamo Drafthouse and now they have Cosm in the live event space.

[Peter Kafka]

Yes, they own Alamo Drafthouse and they now have a $100 million minority investment in KM which has, they launched in LA, in Inglewood, but they have venues in Atlanta, Dallas.

[Matt Belloni]

I think a couple more are coming

[Peter Kafka]

and it's basically sort of like the sphere but on a downscaled. It's to watch sports in an immersive environment. They have movies. They showed the Matrix, Harry Potter. It's kind of a good business. I think it's, it's, it makes sense they would do this.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, this is like the, the, the lower budget competitor to the sphere and I, I wonder if there's just going to be more of these popping up all over to compete with the sphere.

[Peter Kafka]

They've invited us to come over there and we haven't gone yet. We need to go.

[Lucas Shaw]

We should have.

[Craig Horbeck]

I have to say I was skeptical at first and then I saw some photos of what their dome like sports viewing experience looks like. It does kind of look you're in, look like you're in the stadium which is pretty impressive.

[Peter Kafka]

You should take your fantasy football podster guys and go to experience that.

[Craig Horbeck]

We should, we should actually. That's a good idea. We should do that.

[Peter Kafka]

My prediction today is I think this is only the beginning. I think that Sony will ultimately end up owning this company and that that will happen in the next few years. Sony clearly looking at the content landscape. It's already a Japan based hardware technology company and they're looking at the content market right now for Sony Pictures and the CEO Ravi Ahuja who's now going to be on the board of Kosm. They're looking at these ed AI proof, quote unquote experiential businesses that everybody's interested in right now. And I think Sony will try to build up this theaters, but not theaters. They don't want to own amc. They don't want to get into the, you know, the, the mass market theater business. But something like Kosm to go with Alamo Drafthouse makes a lot of sense for Sony. I think they will buy it.

[Craig Horbeck]

When you say AI proof, what do you mean? Like, like KOSM is something like live experiences are something that can't be corrupted by AI.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, there's this whole movement right now in the investment community for live experiences, things that you cannot replicate at home and that cannot be disrupted by AI. Doesn't matter if we're all sitting in pods experiencing entertainment on our headsets. In five years people will still want to go to concerts and out of home activities like festivals. Ari Emanuel has this whole company, Mari, that is buying up businesses that support live entertainment. He said it on the show. He thinks that because of AI productivity and work from home and all these things that there is going to be a four day work week and three days of the week are going to be for out of home experiential things. That's going to give a big opportunity to Live Nation and all these businesses that focus on the out of home community. And that's what this is. KOSM is a experience you can't get at home. You can't replicate it via any kind of algorithm or anything that will serve you content at home or on your phone. This is where it's going to be at.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if, if these types of things can pop up more at a more affordable price. Because Cosm is still kind of expensive. Obviously the Sphere is expensive. Finding the middle ground where it's something that a normal person could just kind of go do on a Saturday that doesn't cost like 250 bucks. That's kind of like in between a sports bar and going to Dodger Stadium is interesting.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, they, they position it as exactly that, but for a special occasion type thing. It's, you know, dynamic pricing. So if you go to a Tuesday night Dodger game, it's less expensive than going to an NFL playoff game to watch there. Maybe we should do our box office draft live from the Cosm so people can, can watch there. We'll have a big stadium event and you can go to the Cosms in various cities and experience our box office.

[Craig Horbeck]

Let's, let's not commit too quickly. We'll see if Dolan's interested. Maybe we'll do it at the Sphere.

[Peter Kafka]

Bidding war for this. Yeah, Sphere would be amazing.

[Craig Horbeck]

Yeah.

[Peter Kafka]

Lucas's face on the giant big screen at the, at the Sphere. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, our editors Jon Jones and Jesse Lopez. And I want to thank you. We'll see you one more time this week.

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