Podcast Summary: Would Netflix Really Embrace Theaters to Buy Warner Bros?

Podcast: The Town with Matthew Belloni (The Ringer)
Date: December 2, 2025
Guests: Matthew Belloni (host), Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg), Craig Horbeck (producer)

Overview:

This episode centers on the ongoing saga surrounding the potential sale of Warner Bros. Discovery. The focal point is Netflix’s reported pledge to continue releasing Warner Bros. films in theaters—a notable departure from Netflix’s longstanding business model. Matthew Belloni, Lucas Shaw, and Craig Horbeck dissect the motivations behind Netflix's move, its credibility, the possible consequences for Hollywood, and the jockeying among major bidders (Netflix, Paramount, Comcast). The episode also dives into the regulatory, strategic, and reputational challenges inherent in such a seismic shift in the industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Warner Bros. Discovery Sale (01:30–06:00)

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) CEO David Zaslav has set a deadline for bidders to submit improved offers.
• Primary Bidders:
  • Paramount (for the entire company)
  • Comcast and Netflix (for Warner Studio and HBO Max)
• Each bidder is strategizing not just to make the best financial deal, but also to shape media and regulatory narratives.

2. Netflix’s Surprising Theatrical Pledge (06:00–10:00)

• Lucas Shaw’s reporting: Netflix, in its pitch, has “pledged” to continue releasing Warner Bros. movies theatrically.
• Key Question: Is this credible given Netflix’s anti-theatrical reputation?
• Belloni: “Netflix has been actively contributing to the demise of movie theaters for over a decade now…” (08:48)
• Netflix is trying to soothe worries from WBD, talent, and regulators that it would kill off a major theatrical studio.
• Regulatory context: Congressional Republicans have signaled concerns over streaming consolidation, mentioning Netflix by name.

Quote

"If Netflix buys Warner Brothers Discovery... Warner Brothers has agreed to release several of its movies in theaters and Netflix will honor those. So they do not get sued by talent." – Lucas Shaw (06:58)

3. Contractual vs. Strategic Theatrical Releases (06:35–12:00)

• Initially, Netflix would be obligated to honor existing theatrical deals for WBD movies.
• The long-term approach is less certain: Will Netflix put only major tentpoles in theaters or expand this to original Netflix productions?
• Lucas Shaw: Netflix’s main historical reasons for avoiding theaters have been about their distribution philosophy and their movies’ poor theatrical performance.
• Belloni: “Their whole model is to acclimate the customer to watching first run, high budget, A-list talent movies at home.” (08:48)

Quote

“Netflix has also always said it's not interested in major transactions... So the fact they are contemplating a $60 billion deal, the Warner Studio is that special to them." – Lucas Shaw (09:31)

4. The Rationale: Evolution or Contradiction? (12:00–15:32)

• The team debates the sincerity and practicality of Netflix’s about-face.
• Netflix has evolved before (ex: launching ad-supported plans), so this shift isn’t unprecedented.
• Craig: “He killed theaters and now he can save them.” (14:24)
• Netflix might use the acquisition to lure more top-tier filmmakers who have resisted their streaming-only approach.

Quote

"If you look at the evolution of the company... maybe it is time to evolve into a more full service entertainment company." – Matthew Belloni (14:09)

5. Regulatory and Reputational Hurdles (15:32–19:52)

• Questions about regulatory concessions: Could the government mandate theatrical releases and enforce quotas?
• Discussion about the reputational risk to Ted Sarandos (Netflix co-CEO) if he reneges on theatrical promises post-acquisition.
• Consensus: Netflix would likely focus on tentpoles (Batman, Superman, Minecraft), but remain stingy about broader theatrical releases or auteur-driven films.
• Concerns about the marketing apparatus required for blockbuster films—a domain Netflix has largely avoided until now.

Quote

“For Batman and Superman and Minecraft, they would do it, but it’s everything else.” – Matthew Belloni (18:11)

6. Broader Deal Dynamics: Why Buy If You Must Change? (19:52–22:40)

• The conversation expands: Buying WBD fundamentally changes Netflix’s model and operations.
• Other bidders (Paramount, Comcast) are also reportedly willing to alter their own business strategies; ex: Paramount’s decision to distribute "Rush Hour 4," thought to be influenced by political considerations.

7. Political Influence, Regulatory Uncertainty, and Strategic Calculus (22:40–28:30)

• The interplay of political alliances, market narratives, and regulatory pressures is central.
• Paramount’s ties to Trump, Comcast's challenges as a broadband company, and Larry Ellison’s (Oracle) role are discussed at length.
• Regulatory issues—both domestic and international—may pose significant hurdles, underscoring risks of protracted litigation which could damage the value of any acquisition.

8. Probabilities and Predictions (28:30–30:45)

• Hosts update their odds on the outcome of the sale.
• Belloni: “60% Paramount, 30% Comcast, 10% Netflix” (29:58)
• Shaw: More bullish on Netflix, suggesting it could be 60–30–10 Paramount, Netflix, Comcast, respectively.

Quote

"Netflix doesn't need this. The risk to the model and the disruption of a core business is so high that Netflix won't want it as much as others want it." – Matthew Belloni (30:14)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Netflix’s core model:

  “Why would they throw that out the window in order to acquire a studio? Is the IP and the studio that important to them?”
  — Matthew Belloni (08:48)

• On Netflix’s evolving stance:

  “He [Ted Sarandos] killed theaters and now he can save them.”
  — Craig Horbeck (14:24)

• On regulatory conditions:

  “Netflix, you want to buy Warner Bros, the government should put a condition on it that you have to release for the next 10 years 15 movies in theaters with full windows…”
  — Matthew Belloni (16:46)

• On Paramount’s willingness to compromise:

  "Paramount distributing 'Rush Hour 4,' a movie that... every other company in town passed on... if Larry talked to Trump, Trump said, do it. Larry said to David, do it."
  — Matthew Belloni (23:42)

• On possible surprise bidders:

  “I could see some like, rich guy with Emirati money being like, I have $100 billion… Let's put in a bid.”
  — Matthew Belloni (30:25)

Important Timestamps

• 01:30–06:00 — Context on Warner Bros. Discovery sale, bidders, and regulatory narratives
• 06:00–10:00 — Netflix’s “theatrical pledge” reporting and analysis
• 12:00–15:32 — Evolution of Netflix’s business model, precedent for change
• 15:32–20:30 — Theatrical release specifics, risks, and probabilities
• 22:40–28:30 — Political and regulatory influence, Paramount & Comcast strategies
• 28:30–30:45 — Predictions: who wins the Warner Bros. Discovery auction?

Tone & Takeaways

• Tone: Insider, candid, occasionally irreverent—participants poke fun at industry players while offering sharp market analysis.
• Takeaway:
  • Netflix might shift its paradigm for the right asset—an unprecedented move if it happens, with transformative implications for streaming, theatrical exhibition, and the studio ecosystem.
  • The outcome is in flux, and all major players are compromising traditional positions to win one of Hollywood’s most consequential assets.
  • The battle is not just financial, but also regulatory and reputational, with government oversight, talent relationships, and long-term brand credibility at stake.