The Trade Guys – March 9, 2026

Episode Theme: Economic Impacts of Iran Conflict, Tariff Refund Update, and Colombia-Ecuador Trade War
Host: Alex Kisling
Guests/Trade Guys: Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch (CSIS Trade experts)

Overview

In this episode, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch assess the rapidly evolving Iran conflict and its profound economic and trade implications, particularly focusing on energy markets and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. They also provide updates on the long-anticipated tariff refund process following the Supreme Court ruling and weigh in on the escalating trade spat between Colombia and Ecuador. The discussion is pragmatic, nonpartisan, and laced with the hosts' characteristic wit and plain talk.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Economic Impacts of the Iran Conflict: Strait of Hormuz & Global Markets

• [01:12–07:34]
  Short-term vs. Long-term Impacts:

  • Bill: Markets initially panic, as evidenced by "the Dow was down last time I looked around 850" ([01:26]), but "it usually comes back… equilibrium gets restored."
    • Notable quote:

      "Every time Trump does something like this, there's a market spasm... it tanks. But usually... it comes back." — Bill [01:15]

  • Energy Markets: Crude oil up to $85/barrel, LNG prices spiking. If the conflict is brief, it's a "blip." If prolonged, deep systemic impacts loom, particularly for energy supply chains.
  • Strategic Vulnerability: Over 200 ships are stranded in the Gulf ([02:22]); ripple effects most severe for Asia—Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India—due to high dependence on Gulf oil.
  • Europe's Dilemma: EU less reliant on Gulf oil but heavily exposed to global spot market price spikes, especially for LNG.
  • US Position: Despite being a net exporter, the US "can't fill a fifth of the world's oil demand" ([04:30]); domestic supply chains may still be affected.

• Insurance Problem & Risk Mitigation:

  • Most commercial insurers are backing out; Trump administration wants Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to step in with political risk insurance for shipping ([05:25]).
  • Bill: "There are ways to do this via the DFC... But whether there'll be any takers or not... remains to be seen." ([06:31])
  • New waiver authority under the amended BUILD Act offers some flexibility.

• Broader Geopolitical Dynamics:

  • If disruption continues, "that's going to affect factories in those [Asian] countries, that's going to affect supply chains, exports, and ultimately manufacturing production in the United States." ([03:12])
  • China less exposed—overland pipelines from Russia/Kazakhstan—but will need to "scramble to make adjustments."

2. U.S. and Global Energy Effects

• [07:42–10:43]

  • Scott on Price Spikes:

    "Energy has essentially an absolutely flat demand in the short term... the only thing that always happens is prices always spike." ([07:42])

  • Regional Effects: US energy sector is largely insulated ("almost all our energy... is produced and refined in North America"), but Brent–WTI crude spread over $10 a barrel signals global stress ([08:58]).
  • Consumers & Supply Chains:
    • Gasoline up 20 cents/gallon in the US—manageable compared to what's facing China (diesel allocations) ([09:30]).
    • Major shippers (e.g. Costco) and insurers withdraw; risk mitigation relies on both security and functional insurance.

• Security is Crucial ([10:43–12:13]):

  • Both agree: without basic security for shipping crews and infrastructure, insurance alone won't bring vessels back.

• No Alternative Route ([11:19–11:34]):

  • The Strait of Hormuz is unique in its lack of alternate shipping paths; this is not like prior Red Sea disruptions.
  • Bill: "The Strait of Hormuz, there's only one way out and it goes right past Iran... it's really a point of vulnerability." ([11:34])

3. Impact on U.S. Trading Partners & Supply Chains

• [12:14–16:28]
  • Asia's Exposure:

    "Asia will have the most to deal with in the near term." — Scott ([12:33])

    • Countries like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Taiwan "heavily impacted" by supply risk and higher energy costs.
    • Taiwan is "96% dependent on oil from the region" ([14:53]); shutdowns could disrupt electronics and other key global supply chains.
  • Long-Term U.S. Implications:
    • More expensive imports and possible interruptions due to Asian manufacturing disruptions.
    • "Americans are going to pay more for stuff... or they'll have supply chain interruptions." — Bill ([14:53])
  • Reshoring Conversation:
    • Bill asks if this makes the case for more reshoring ("So [does this] make Trump happy?") ([16:02]); Scott: the US's energy position is a "competitive advantage" but decisions should wait.

4. Tariff Refund Update: Court of International Trade Decision

• [17:14–21:16]
  • Court moves swiftly:
    • Supreme Court declared certain Trump-era tariffs illegal; refunds are due—with interest.
    • Administration tried to delay; Judge Eaton "rejected that and said, you need to start right away" ([19:55]).
    • Over 2,000 lawsuits pending; one judge assigned to all, aiming to standardize resolution.
    • Bill: "The court's not going to mess around, and they remember what the administration committed on this to refund the money. And Trump may have forgotten that, but the court clearly has not." ([20:10])
  • Practical Impact:
    • Scott: Don't expect immediate price drops for consumers ("prices are pretty sticky") ([20:28]), but court's approach is sound—get money to businesses quickly for certainty.

5. Colombia–Ecuador Trade War: Policy vs. Proxy Battle

• [21:16–24:45]
  • Underlying Dynamics:
    • Dispute involves a left-wing Colombian president and a right-wing Ecuadorian president, but Scott insists it’s not unusual—"commercial disputes... go on all the time" in Latin America ([21:33]).
    • Nationalistic tariff-raising impulses have spread; "everybody wants to be tariff man" ([22:29]).
    • Scott: "This is kind of part of living in the region and not particularly messy or harmful to human life at the moment. So I think we should let them work it out." ([23:29])
  • Global Rules Breakdown:
    • Bill laments: "Trump has given other countries permission to do this. He has torpedoed the rules in the international economic system... Now they only think once. And that's too bad." ([24:16])
    • Expect more tit-for-tat tariffs elsewhere as global trade norms erode.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Market Reactions:

  "Every time Trump does something like this, there's a market spasm... the market has figured this out and it usually comes back."
  — Bill Reinsch [01:15]

• On Asian Energy Dependency:

  "That's going to affect factories in those countries, that's going to affect supply chains. It's going to affect their exports and American imports and ultimately manufacturing production in the United States."
  — Bill Reinsch [03:12]

• On the US Oil Role:

  "The 50,000 meter answer is not really [that the US can fill the gap] because we're pretty much at production max."
  — Bill Reinsch [04:30]

• On Insurance Solutions:

  "There are ways to do this via the DFC... But whether there'll be any takers or not... remains to be seen."
  — Bill Reinsch [06:31]

• On Iran’s Situation:

  "They not only have no air force and their navy, their warships are now submarines, and the command structure is dead... They now have no source of funds to replenish it because there are no oil exports."
  — Scott Miller [08:18]

• On Price Stickiness:

  "Prices are pretty sticky in both directions and we're going to have a hard time finding it at the end of the day."
  — Scott Miller [20:28]

• On Spread of Protectionism:

  "Everybody wants to be tariff man... this is kind of part of living in the region."
  — Scott Miller [22:29]

• On WTO/Global Rules:

  "Trump has given other countries permission to do this. He has torpedoed the rules in the international economic system... now they only think once."
  — Bill Reinsch [24:16]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction of Topics — [00:07–01:12]
• Strait of Hormuz & Oil Market Impact — [01:12–07:34]
• Insurance, Security & Shipping Risks — [07:34–12:13]
• Global Supply Chain Implications — [12:14–16:28]
• Tariff Refund Court Ruling — [17:14–21:16]
• Colombia–Ecuador Trade War Analysis — [21:16–24:45]

Tone and Style

The conversation is frank, accessible, and laced with dry humor. Bill and Scott combine practical industry insight (“Don’t plan to go out to dinner on your refund yet!” [19:54]) with a critical but nonpartisan view of policy shifts. There’s a focus on specific impacts for businesses, consumers, and U.S. trading partners—avoiding jargon and always looking for the practical punchline.

This episode is essential for anyone tracking the global economic fallout from new Middle East conflict, evolving U.S. tariff policy, and the fragility of global trade norms. The Trade Guys offer both granular detail and the big-picture context, making complex trade events understandable and relevant.