The Trade Guys

Episode: Lessons and Next Steps from Deals with China and the UK

Date: May 15, 2025
Podcast: CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Hosts: Scott Miller, Bill Reinsch
Moderator: H. Andrew Schwartz

Overview

In this episode, trade experts Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch dissect the recent trade deals and negotiations with China and the UK, providing nuanced perspectives on what these agreements mean for U.S. policy, global supply chains, domestic industries, and the future of multilateral trade. With characteristic candor and wit, the Trade Guys shed light on what’s substantive and what’s show in these headline-grabbing announcements—exploring the deeper strategic, economic, and political implications.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. US-China Trade Deal: De-Escalation and Its Limits

• A Step Back from the Brink

  • The US and China agreed to lower tariffs, cooling off a period of rapid escalation.
  • US tariffs on Chinese goods: now ~30%; Chinese tariffs on US goods: ~10%.
  • Both sides sent strong negotiation teams: Treasury Secretary Besant, USTR Greer for the US; China included their Deputy Minister of Public Safety, highlighting cross-cutting issues like fentanyl.
  • “What they agreed to do was continue to work but to return terms of trade...to a level that doesn’t completely obstruct trade.”
    —Scott Miller [00:51]

• Market and Political Response

  • Markets responded positively; the deal also received political approval.
  • Both sides made concessions but fundamental trade issues remain unresolved.
  • “Nothing’s fixed yet, but we’re away from spiraling out of control.”
    —Scott Miller [02:47]

• Who Blinked First?

  • Bill Reinsch suggests the US conceded more than China, a view echoed in Washington commentary.
  • The deal’s “fine print” reveals that average tariffs are closer to 51%, higher than headline numbers, and will still stifle significant trade.
  • “I think it was us. We probably gave more than the Chinese did.”
    —Bill Reinsch [03:44]
  • “Sue Schwab…figured out the average new tariff is closer to 51% than 30%.”
    —Bill Reinsch [04:25]

• Winners and Losers

  • Examples of winners (e.g., US furniture manufacturers) and losers (businesses relying on Chinese inputs).
  • Key Chinese concessions: removal of 28 companies from export control bans; some relaxation on export controls for critical minerals.
  • “There are always winners, but there’s always losers.”
    —Bill Reinsch [05:54]
  • “Manufacturers here were calling ports in Shanghai...saying, you know, start the boats again.”
    —Bill Reinsch [07:17]

• Underlying Issues Unchanged

  • Core issues (subsidies, intellectual property theft, non-market practices) remain untouched.
  • Trade deal is largely about resuming trade, not reforming it.
  • “The Chinese made no commitments on subsidies. They made no commitments on IP theft.”
    —Bill Reinsch [06:34]

• Importance of Supply Chains

  • Focus on how tariffs risked disrupting US manufacturers using Chinese components, e.g., Boeing.
  • “Supply chains are complicated, and if you slap 145% tariff on the parts and components, you’re making it much more difficult for people in America to manufacture Made in America products.”
    —Bill Reinsch [07:49]

• Enduring Leverage and 90-Day Truce

  • Discussion on whether the US can extract bigger concessions in the future.
  • China deftly increased exports to Southeast Asia—potentially relabeling for US import—raising the risk of customs fraud.
  • “The fact that both sides were ready to back off...said there were reactions and responses...they had to deal with.”
    —Scott Miller [09:32]
  • “They’re not going to agree to any of that...because for them it’s an issue of party control over society.”
    —Bill Reinsch [11:04]

• Tariffs as Industrial Strategy

  • Both hosts acknowledge the tariffs are here to stay and part of a broader US industrial “de-risking” from China.
  • Uncertainty may accelerate US businesses’ diversification away from China.
  • “There’s more in it for the United States to reduce our reliance on China as a source of imports.”
    —Scott Miller [12:10]

• Stockpiling before Uncertainty

  • Businesses expected to hoard inventory ahead of potential tariff hikes resuming post-90 days.
  • “All your Christmas purchases are going to be made now. If you’re a retailer, you’re getting delivery...in the next 90 days.”
    —Scott Miller [13:31]
  • “Trade Hoarders” reality show banter — light-hearted moment. [13:44–14:35]

2. US Economic Policy Context

• Beyond Tariffs: The "Big Beautiful Bill" and Deregulation

  • Coming economic initiatives: continuation of 2017 tax cuts, repeal/dial-back of Green New Deal-related regulations.
  • Desire to anchor oil prices at $50/barrel to combat inflation and further the Buy America agenda.
  • “In 90 days, you’re going to see a much more comprehensive picture of where the economic plan is going, and confidence will be based on that and not tariffs with China.”
    —Scott Miller [17:07]

• Impact on Energy and Domestic Production

  • Lower oil prices may discourage domestic production even as they help consumer inflation.
  • “The lower the price of oil...the more difficult it’s going to be to increase domestic production.”
    —Bill Reinsch [17:54]

3. US-UK Trade Deal: Lessons and Markers for Future Negotiations

• Structure and Substance

  • Broadly welcomed as positive news, yet largely a matter of “less bad news” instead of significant good news.
  • 80/20 split: 20% substantive concessions, 80% deferred to future negotiations.
  • Both sides made limited but material concessions (e.g., UK lifting ethanol tariff; US lowering car tariffs to 10% for first 100k cars).
  • “It was about 80%: we’re going to deal with this later. And 20%: actual substantive concessions.”
    —Bill Reinsch [20:35]

• Preferential, Not Comprehensive

  • All concessions are bilateral: none are extended to other nations (“Most Favored Nation”—MFN—status described as dead).
  • Fun moment: “Is MFN dead and does anybody care? And Ambassador Froman had the best answer, which was yes and no. Yes, it's dead and no, nobody cares.”
    —Bill Reinsch [24:03]

• Concrete Points

  • UK gets less-bad auto tariffs (10% on 100k cars, better than pending 25% but higher than prior 2.5%).
  • No deal on digital services tax; digital trade and other regulatory cooperation deferred.
  • British narrative: possible future zero tariffs on steel and aluminum; US noncommittal for now.

• Pattern for Future Deals

  • UK deal sets a template: narrow, preferential, targeted, with political wins on both sides.
  • Critics of this approach (“return to free trade, Geneva, WTO, etc.”) are out of step with current political and economic realities:
    • “The argument that really doesn’t work is let’s do it the old way, let’s go to Geneva and have a conference and won’t that be great?”
      —Scott Miller [26:33]
  • Comprehensive agreements are too slow; world has moved on to “coalitions of the willing.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Scott Miller:

  • “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. ...They both learn some things about themselves and about their opponent.” [02:13]
  • “But if they're less of a factor in our market...then they can have their bad practices.” [12:22]

• Bill Reinsch:

  • “I think Sue had read the fine print...the average new tariff is closer to 51% than 30%.” [04:25]
  • “You need to look at the fine print. ...There's a lot of hand grenades hidden in the shrubbery here.” [03:54]
  • “The Chinese made no commitments on subsidies. ...They made some concessions that were substantive. Lowering the tariffs...they also agreed to release some hostages...” [06:34]
  • “Is MFN dead and does anybody care? ...Yes, it's dead and no, nobody cares.” [24:03]

• Andrew Schwartz:

  • “Let’s go on to a cheerier story. That’s the UK.” [19:14]
  • Joking about pitching a “Trade Hoarders” reality show [13:44]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• US-China Negotiations Overview & Assessment: [00:51–03:44]
• Who Blinked First? US Perspective: [03:44–05:54]
• Trade Winners and Losers: [06:22–08:39]
• Supply Chain Challenges & 232 Investigation: [07:49–08:39]
• Leverage over China & 90-Day Truce: [08:45–10:26]
• Customs Fraud and Relabeling Issue: [10:26–11:02]
• On China Ever Changing?: [11:02–12:08]
• Tariffs as Industrial Policy / De-Risking: [12:10–12:59]
• Stockpiling & "Trade Hoarders" Banter: [13:23–14:47]
• Economic Policy / Oil Prices / Broader Plan: [15:22–17:54]
• US-UK Deal Deep Dive Starts: [19:14]
• Nature of the Agreement: Substance vs. Symbolism: [20:35–22:15]
• MFN Dead / Preferentialism: [24:03]
• Future of US Trade Negotiations: [26:33–27:23]

Conclusion

This episode offers a pragmatic, sometimes sardonic look at the realities of modern trade negotiations. The US-China truce provides temporary relief but fails to address deeper structural tensions. The US-UK deal sets a template for targeted, preferential agreements likely to dominate trade policy going forward, as multilateral, rules-based approaches recede.

Rather than breakthroughs or comprehensive settlements, the trade landscape is shifting toward managed relationships, iterative progress, and trade-offs balanced between political, economic, and strategic priorities. As always, the Trade Guys serve up sharp analysis alongside levity, making complex policy comprehensible and engaging.

For listener questions, contact: tradeguys@csis.org