The Trade Guys – November 24, 2025

Episode: New Trade Deals and Framework Agreements, Poison Pill Clauses, and Thanksgiving Dinner

Hosts: Scott Miller (A) & Bill Reinsch (B)
Moderator: Alex Kisling (D)
Produced by CSIS

Episode Overview

In this special Thanksgiving episode, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch break down the latest developments in U.S. trade policy, including the surge of framework agreements with Latin America and Southeast Asia, the newly struck deal with Switzerland, and the inclusion of “poison pill” clauses largely aimed at China. They round out the episode with a fun, in-depth exploration of the global story behind America’s Thanksgiving meal, demonstrating how international trade shapes what lands on your dinner table.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New Latin American and Southeast Asian Framework Agreements

• Context: On November 13, several non-binding framework deals were announced between the U.S. and Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
• Nature of Agreements:
  • Not finalized, publicly available, enforceable, or legally binding.
  • Known as “framework agreements”—broad outlines subject to future fleshing out.
• Key Provisions:
  • Set U.S. tariffs at 10%, termed “as generous as Trump gets these days.” [04:46]
  • Commitments by partner countries to open markets and remove some trade barriers.
  • Various countries agreed to refrain from digital taxes, adopt international agreements, accept U.S. auto standards, and streamline regulatory approvals (especially for autos, pharmaceuticals, medical devices).
  • Emphasis on intellectual property protections.
• Tailored Actions: Every deal is slightly different to align with the respective national context.

Quotation [Bill Reinsch, 03:10]:

"Mostly what they are not. They are not finished. They are often not entirely public. ...and they are not legally binding. So that's a lot of things that they are not."

2. Poison Pill Clauses and Aims Against China

• What They Are: New trade frameworks contain "poison pill" provisions designed to block partner countries from siding economically with China.
  • Malaysia: U.S. can terminate the agreement if Malaysia enters an economic pact jeopardizing essential U.S. interests (e.g., with China) if consultations fail. [05:02]
  • Cambodia: Similar provision, but with squishier language: “consistent with national sovereignty.” [05:52]
  • Latin America: Vows to “address potential distortionary actions of state owned enterprises and industrial subsidies.” [06:20]
• Purpose: Strengthen a global network to resist Chinese economic coercion.

Quotation [Bill Reinsch, 05:42]:

"That wouldn't be aimed at China by any chance, would it? ... It really is aimed about China."

• Effectiveness Questioned:
  • Enforcement is uncertain. The U.S. can withdraw from these deals at any time; the poison pill is mostly a political signaling tool.
  • Global context: Many countries (EU, Canada, Turkey, etc.) are already considering tariffs in response to Chinese industrial policy.

Quotation [Bill Reinsch, 08:27]:

"What we are trying to do is create by force rather than persuasion ... a network of countries that are committed to not accept Chinese economic coercion..."

3. Implementation Challenges and Domestic Politics

• Legal Scrub: USTR’s painstaking legal review is critical to making these agreements stick—yet, it’s unclear if such thorough follow-up is happening. [09:19]
• Domestic Resistance: In partner nations (e.g., Malaysia), there’s significant debate, often due to groups preferring import substitution.
• Competitive Balance: Key motivation for partner countries is not to fall behind regional rivals in market access to the U.S.—tariff equality is crucial in Asian trade politics.

Quotation [Scott Miller, 11:24]:

"This flat universal tariff makes for an inexpensive dollar in the United States and a modestly more expensive dollar outside…we preserved competitive balance among the traders outside."

4. Why These Deals Are Vulnerable

• Not Legally Binding:
  • None are approved by the U.S. Congress.
  • “There’s no bill in Congress that has to change a U.S. law in any of these.” [12:52]
  • Downside: the agreements are easy for either side to ignore or walk away from.
• Legal Uncertainty: The fate of tariffs tied to these deals may be affected by an incoming Supreme Court case. Rumors swirl about “Plan B” enforcement mechanisms if courts strike down the tariffs (e.g., using section 232 National Security Investigations as a backup). [14:01-15:13]

5. U.S.-Switzerland Trade Deal: A “White Whale” Caught

• Background: After 39% U.S. tariffs, the U.S. and Switzerland struck a deal reducing them to 15%, with Switzerland pledging $200B in U.S. investments (pharma, aerospace, medical devices).
• Historical Challenges: Decades of failed attempts at comprehensive trade agreements, mainly due to Swiss reluctance to open agricultural markets.
• Deal Significance:
  • Not a full FTA, but yields substantial concession and investment.
  • Praised as a pragmatic victory for Trump’s negotiation style—opting for piecemeal deals rather than all-or-nothing FTAs.
• Fun Fact: Tiny Liechtenstein is also included—one of the world’s largest exporters of false teeth. [19:44]

Quotation [Scott Miller, 17:00]:

"The new agreement is good…This is the practical part of the Trump trade agenda that he almost never gets credit for…Hats off to Team Trump for getting something done with Switzerland."

6. Thanksgiving Dinner’s Trade Story

• Trade’s Impact on the Holiday Table:
  • Essential spices (allspice from Central America, nutmeg from Indonesia), coffee, tea, wine, cocoa—all imported.
  • “Freshness revolution”: Thanks to trade, Americans now enjoy fresh produce and specialty items year-round, not just canned goods.
  • Even for iconic dishes like pecan pie—many pecans are imported to meet holiday demand.
• Tariffs and the Dinner Table: The administration finally dropped tariffs on goods the U.S. doesn’t produce, like coffee and bananas, just in time for Thanksgiving; Bill jokes it’s a “too late” move.

Quotation [Scott Miller, 21:57]:

"Look at a photo of any produce section of any grocery store in America versus 50 years ago ... The bounty that is available every day to Americans only exists because of trade, because there's not much in season in November in North America."

Quotation [Bill Reinsch, 23:33]:

"The administration, I think eight months late, has figured out that maybe tariffs on stuff that we don't grow here is a bad idea."

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• [03:10] Bill Reinsch: "Mostly what they are not. They are not finished. ... They are not enforceable, and they are not legally binding."
• [05:42] Bill Reinsch: "That wouldn't be aimed at China by any chance, would it?"
• [11:24] Scott Miller: "This flat universal tariff makes for an inexpensive dollar in the United States and a modestly more expensive dollar outside."
• [17:00] Scott Miller: "Hats off to Team Trump for getting something done with Switzerland."
• [19:48] Bill Reinsch: "They are one of the largest world exporters of false teeth, as it happens. Not that I have any of theirs."
• [21:57] Scott Miller: "The bounty that is available every day to Americans only exists because of trade..."
• [23:33] Bill Reinsch: "Maybe tariffs on stuff that we don't grow here is a bad idea... putting the tariffs on did not create a US Industry."
• [24:43] Scott Miller: "We hope all our listeners do have a lovely Thanksgiving weekend. Enjoy the holiday and every once in a while think about how trade makes your life better."

Important Timestamps

• 00:21 – Introduction and episode overview
• 01:18–09:13 – Explaining the Latin America/SEA framework deals and their features
• 09:13–13:57 – Implementation, legal challenges, and domestic reactions
• 15:13–20:07 – U.S.-Switzerland deal: history, victories, and oddities
• 20:28–24:43 – Thanksgiving dinner’s surprising trade dependencies and tariff timing

Summary Takeaways

• Recent U.S. trade agreements are mostly non-binding, and heavy on symbolism and political signaling—especially regarding China.
• Poison pill clauses reinforce the U.S. intent to limit partner ties with China, reflecting a broader trend in global trade politics.
• Comprehensive, legally enforceable agreements are increasingly rare; instead, the Trump administration opts for incremental, bilateral deals.
• Even deeply American traditions—like Thanksgiving dinner—are built on a network of international trade, from flavorful spices to fresh produce.
• Timely removal of tariffs on key imports highlights both the benefits and the haphazard pace of current U.S. trade policy.

The Trade Guys episode offers humor, real-world context, and sharp analysis, helping listeners connect the global trade landscape straight to their kitchen tables.