The Trade Guys – Episode Summary

Podcast: The Trade Guys (CSIS)
Episode: SCOTUS Decision Check-in, U.S.-Cuba Relations, and USMCA Updates
Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Scott Miller, Bill Reinsch

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch dive into three timely trade topics:

• The fallout from the recent Supreme Court decision on the IPA tariffs, and evolving administration strategies;
• The status and complexity of U.S.-Cuba relations, with an eye to legal, political, and personal obstacles to normalization;
• Current developments and likely scenarios for USMCA as the agreement’s sunset review approaches.

Throughout, the discussion is candid, analytical, and rich in both trade law nuance and Washington-insider context.

Supreme Court Decision on IPA Tariffs: Reviews & Policy Fallout

[00:21–16:54]

Key Discussion Points

• Immediate Administration Response (01:53):

  • After the Supreme Court invalidated the IPA tariffs nearly a month ago, the administration promptly shifted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as its legal basis for new tariffs.
  • Lawsuits are underway, arguing that Section 122 requires a genuine balance of payments crisis—currently absent in the U.S.—making the administration’s authority debatable.

• Plan B and C Tactics (05:04, 10:22):

  • The administration’s fallback is to trigger and rapidly close investigations under Section 301 (targeting “unreasonable or discriminatory practices”) for 16 countries—primarily over capacity and forced labor.
  • The intent: finalize findings and justify tariffs in a way that avoids needing Congressional extension (required after 150 days under Section 122).

• Refunds for Importers (08:01):

  • Importers affected by the now-invalid IPA tariffs will get refunds via a computerized system (target date: April 20). However, claimants must re-submit data already held by Customs, likely designed to reduce refund outlays through attrition.

  “The cynic in me suggests they’re making you do it again in the hopes that a lot of people will forget... the government can save some money by not refunding everybody.”
  —Bill Reinsch, [09:15]

• Legal and Policy Prognosis:

  • Section 301 is likely the administration’s “tool of choice” ([16:54]).
  • Lawsuits are probable, particularly as the U.S. faces difficulty justifying different tariff rates and forced labor claims across diverse trading partners.

• Bilateral Agreements & Uncertainty (05:56–07:15):

  • Countries (e.g., Malaysia) are questioning the validity of negotiated tariff deals post-SCOTUS ruling.
  • More legal disputes are on the horizon as the administration aims for rapid, albeit potentially shaky, alternative justifications for tariffs.

Notable Quotes

• “They will use this to basically reinstate the reciprocal trade agreements they've negotiated with multiple countries already... The remedy is the tariff level we agreed to in the agreement that we negotiated with you last year or earlier this year.”
  —Bill Reinsch [05:56]
• “Section 301 is our trading partners’ least favorite because it gives the administration such broad powers...”
  —Scott Miller [11:45]

U.S.-Cuba Relations: The Challenge of Normalization

[16:56–24:06]

Key Discussion Points

• Layers of Legal Obstacles (16:56–21:17):

  • U.S. policy restrictions are cumulative—from Eisenhower's diplomatic severance, Kennedy’s embargo, the Helms-Burton Act, and myriad regulations over 70 years.
  • Cuba’s classification as a “state sponsor of terrorism” further complicates financial and travel transactions.

• Presidential Limits (20:12–21:17):

  • The legal landscape severely constrains even a willing President: “When Trump said, I can do anything I want with Cuba, that's simply wrong. The law is very clear that the President can't do anything he wants...”
  • Only Congressional action can alter most major restrictions.

• Expropriated Property Claims (19:58–24:03):

  • There are $1–2 billion in validated U.S. claims (pre-1959 property seizures), with more still being processed. Any normalization would need to account for these.
  • The Cuban diaspora (not just U.S.-based) may be asked to help settle these claims financially.

  “If you want to get your property back... it’s a lot of money, and now, 70 years later, that property doesn't always exist anymore. ... The answer usually is compensation... The Cuban government doesn’t have any money.”
  —Bill Reinsch [22:03]

Notable Quotes

• “Whatever regulations are in place that enforce the embargo can't be changed by a single president or even entire administration. Congress will have to get involved.”
  —Scott Miller [18:35]

USMCA (“New NAFTA”) Updates and Outlook

[24:06–30:54]

Key Discussion Points

• Sunset Review and Stakes (24:06):

  • The USMCA’s built-in review means by July 1, 2026, all three parties must agree to renew or amend it. Otherwise, it is set to expire in ten years.
  • U.S. businesses deeply depend on continued regional integration.

• Possible Scenarios (26:13–28:50):

  • The six outcomes mapped by CSIS include automatic renewal, full withdrawal, and multi-year rolling negotiations (the “maximum pain” scenario).
  • The most likely is “extension with amendments,” with all three governments negotiating new demands—President Trump’s approach expected to be particularly maximalist.

• Ongoing Threats and Disruption (26:06, 28:11):

  • Expect drama and repeated threats to withdraw. Administration inclinations toward splitting USMCA into separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico may just be leverage, as both partners prefer to keep the trilateral structure.

  “With Trump there’s always drama... I would expect multiple threats to withdraw... the current threat is not to renew, but to negotiate two separate bilateral deals.”
  —Bill Reinsch [26:06]

• Consequences of Non-Agreement:

  • If not renewed, the annual review “maximum pain” process kicks in, prolonging uncertainty and risk for North American supply chains.

  “If you start to take it apart, bad things are going to happen and it’s going to be enormously destructive to all three [economies].”
  —Bill Reinsch [30:54]

Congressional Authority and Involvement

[31:16–33:40]

Key Discussion Points

• Congress’s Power—Mostly Dormant:

  • Miller and Reinsch emphasize that Congress has “plenary authority” over trade (Article I, Section 8). The Supreme Court decision essentially handed the baton back to Congress—if it wants to take it.

  “It would sure be nice for somebody to wake up the United States Congress and inform them that the Supreme Court thinks they have the power to regulate tariffs, and they actually do.”
  —Scott Miller [31:16]

• Why Congress Isn’t Acting:

  • There’s little internal consensus on trade policy in either party—farm state GOP members are skeptical of tariffs, while Democrats remain divided since NAFTA (“Biden did his best to paper over those... by not doing anything” —Bill Reinsch [32:39]).

  "At the moment, it seems that the Congress has a lot of invertebrates."
  —Bill Reinsch [32:07]

• Result:

  • In the vacuum, the President (currently Trump) acts decisively, sometimes erratically, filling the policy gap left by legislative inertia.

Memorable Moments and Quotes

• On Legal Tactics:

  “They will use this to basically reinstate the reciprocal trade agreements they've negotiated with multiple countries already.”
  —Bill Reinsch [05:56]

• On Bureaucratic Obstacles:

  “The cynic in me suggests they’re making you do it again in the hopes that a lot of people will forget ... the government can save some money by not refunding everybody.”
  —Bill Reinsch [09:15]

• On Cuba Policy Limits:

  “When Trump said, I can do anything I want with Cuba, that's simply wrong. The law is very clear that the President can't do anything he wants...”
  —Bill Reinsch [20:12]

• On USMCA Prospects:

  “With Trump there’s always drama... I would expect multiple threats to withdraw... the current threat is ... to negotiate two separate bilateral deals.”
  —Bill Reinsch [26:06]

• On Congress’s Role:

  “It would sure be nice for somebody to wake up the United States Congress and inform them that the Supreme Court thinks they have the power to regulate tariffs, and they actually do.”
  —Scott Miller [31:16]

Important Timestamps

• Tariffs after SCOTUS Ruling: [01:38–16:54]
• Cuba Sanctions/Claims Discussion: [16:56–24:06]
• USMCA Renewal Outlook: [24:06–30:54]
• Congress’s (Non-)Role: [31:16–33:40]

Takeaway

The March 23, 2026 episode offers a clear and candid look at the trade world’s current trio of high-drama stories: administration agility in tariff policy after the SCOTUS decision, the tangled legacy and reality checks of U.S.–Cuba normalization, and the USMCA’s ticking clock amid presidential drama and Congressional inertia. The Trade Guys deliver insights that are accessible for non-specialists but nuanced enough for policy insiders— punctuated with dry wit, clear-eyed skepticism, and periodic calls for more Congressional backbone.