The Trade Guys: "Shipping Emissions, Pre-APEC Tit For Tat, and U.S. Agriculture Exports"

Podcast: The Trade Guys, CSIS
Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Phil Luck
Guests: Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Trade Guys tackle three major current events impacting global trade and U.S. policy:

• The International Maritime Organization’s postponement of carbon taxes on shipping
• Intensifying tit-for-tat export controls between the U.S. and China, focusing on rare earths and technology
• The sharp decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China, and mounting pressure on U.S. farmers

With candid debate, familiar wit, and deep policy experience, Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch analyze the political, economic, and strategic implications of each issue.

1. Global Shipping & Climate Change Backslide

[00:27–10:42]

Key Points

• IMO Carbon Tax Postponement
  The International Maritime Organization postponed a crucial vote on establishing a global carbon tax for ocean shipping, after U.S. and Saudi opposition citing consumer price increases.

• Diminishing Focus on Net Zero & Climate
  Scott points out the rapid collapse of “net zero” momentum and climate policy from public and political attention:

  • “It was a big story almost all the time in say 2021, 22, in that period of time. And today, you just can't find it. Nobody even talks about it.” — Scott [02:30]
  • He links this to practical “math” problems as subsidies for renewables dried up and Western central banks raised interest rates, making decarbonization projects less viable.

• Structural Economic Headwinds
  High interest rates, reduced subsidies, and unaddressed challenges in renewable power storage have undermined climate investment.

  • “There’s a lot of pieces of the net zero agenda where the math was never done to a high enough standard, particularly on storage and the efficiency of storage.” — Scott [04:44]

• Political Will & Priorities Shift
  The ascendance of energy-hungry priorities like AI, and shifting incentive systems, further displaced climate action:

  • “If I had to look for a culprit, AI just became a priority that requires massive amounts of energy...it just changed the entire expectation of energy.” — Scott [05:39]

• Bill’s Counterargument: Political Blockage, Not Just 'The Math'
  Bill robustly disagrees, blaming the Trump administration’s “demolishing” of climate programs and renewables for the stalled progress:

  • “We have a president who thinks climate change is a scam...promoting coal and oil, you know, the dirtiest fuels of all.” — Bill [06:59]
  • He laments America’s retreat from global leadership:
    “This is the triumph of national selfishness over the global commons... We've got countries that are going to disappear... And what has happened now is the United States has decided it doesn't want to do anything to solve the problem.” — Bill [08:21]

• Impact on Global Commons
  Host Phil and Bill agree on the tragedy for global environmental cooperation.

Notable Quotes

• “When you set big goals, don’t forget the math.” — Scott [05:20]
• “This is not a small problem... It's going to make them (oil exporters) more money because the price of oil is going to go up...and the result of the world is it’s going to be hotter, dirtier, stormier.” — Bill [08:30]
• “Greta Thunberg has left a job opening in the climate space. Perhaps that's a post CSIS career for you.” — Scott (lightly teasing Bill) [09:56]

2. U.S.-China "Tit for Tat": Rare Earth Export Controls

[10:42–19:37]

Key Points

• China Tightens Rare Earth Export Controls
  China expanded export controls on rare earths and downstream products, matching and mirroring recent U.S. controls—widely seen as classic “retaliation in kind.”

• Mirrored Policies & 'Hypocrisy'
  Bill highlights the mirroring:

  • “There’s no rule against hypocrisy in the trade business. There’s no WTO rule against hypocrisy. And this is an example of it.” — Bill [11:30]

• Diplomatic Sumo: Summit Leverage
  The moves are interpreted as pre-summit posturing ahead of the upcoming U.S.–China leader summit, with each side seeking leverage:

  • “This is like a sumo match and you got these 400 pound guys... we finished with the rice throwing and now we’re in the belly bumping phase...” — Bill [12:27]

• Substance vs. Symbolism
  The escalation is seen as a means to extract minor diplomatic wins, soon to be traded away after the summit, unless deeper policy intentions are revealed.

• Internal U.S. Policy Debate
  Bill details divisions inside the Trump administration over the scope of technology controls:

  • Deny only advanced tech, or all tech?
  • “There’s consensus that we should deny advanced products to China. There is debate over how far below advanced we should go and deny.” — Bill [15:59]

• Trade Strategy Tension: 'Run Faster or Trip the Other Guy?'

  • Should the U.S. focus on staying ahead (“run faster”) or trying to block China (“trip the other guy”)? This dilemma, Bill notes, has persisted for decades.

• Host Phil: Policy Contradiction
  The administration’s approach is described as incoherent:

  • “There seem to be between policies, choosing very different approaches here.” — Phil [16:44]

Notable Quotes

• “The fact that the administration says, oh, this is terrible, just reeks.” — Bill [11:55]
• “This is an area where [Trump] said different things at different times...and that then leads to the uncertainty that everybody complains about.” — Bill [18:03]
• “We got to do a little better job at both running faster and not being surprised when the Chinese do exactly what the Chinese are expected to do and almost always do.” — Scott [19:19]

3. U.S. Agriculture: “Food Fight” Fallout

[20:28–29:44]

Key Points

• Sharp Decline in Exports
  U.S. agricultural exports to China down 73% in 2025; soybean exports essentially vanished since May.

  • Beef and other products also hit hard, with Chinese authorities cancelling U.S. beef facility licenses.

• Historical Playbook
  Bill recounts how China weaponizes agricultural imports for leverage:

  • “They stopped buying wheat...and within three months Congress had repealed the tariffs. I think the Chinese took a lesson from that and they’re doing it again.” — Bill [22:57]

• Political Reality for U.S. Farmers
  Farmers remain dissatisfied, but Bill notes their electoral leverage is limited due to persistent support for Trump in “red states.”

  • “He’s not going to lose Kansas or Nebraska because of soybeans. He just isn’t.” — Bill [23:49]
  • “What he’s going to end up doing is...bail them out. And they stopped talking about it because it got awkward during the shutdown to talk about spending another 10 to $14 billion to bail out the farmers for Trump’s policy mistake...” — Bill [24:28]

• Diversification Failure & Lessons

  • Almonds serve as a rare example where U.S. producers successfully diversified to offset China’s market.
  • Soy and sorghum did not, making them vulnerable.

• Scott’s Crop-by-Crop Analysis

  • Soybeans: U.S.-China trade is volatile, but global soybean demand remains steady; beans “are finding a market somewhere.”
  • Beef: Current shortages and high prices are due to multiyear livestock cycles, not just trade friction.
  • Almonds: California’s industry shows how diversification can insulate producers.

Notable Quotes

• “Farmers are never happy. No matter what’s going on, they’re never happy. If they’re having a good year, they’re worried about drought next year and if they’re having a bad year, they’re worried that next year is going to be worse.” — Bill [21:51]
• Host banter:
  • “Does the North Carolina State Fair have a cow made out of butter like the Iowa State Fair?” — Bill [29:16]
  • “Not quite...but there was not a cow made of butter.” — Scott [29:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:27] Episode topic rundown by host Phil
• [01:52–06:17] Scott’s deconstruction of shipping emissions policy collapse
• [06:59–09:56] Bill’s critique and the climate/global commons debate
• [10:42–19:25] U.S.-China rare earths export controls and the pre-summit maneuvering
• [21:51–29:44] U.S. agricultural export crunch and farmer politics

Tone & Language

• Conversational, frank, with characteristic jest (“end of rant”—Bill).
• Policy nerdiness mixed with deadpan humor.
• Noteworthy for its skepticism, frustration with policymakers, and nostalgia for more coherent strategies.

Memorable Moments

• Bill’s “sumo wrestling” analogy for U.S.–China trade maneuvering [12:27]
• Scott’s “it was a man-bites-dog moment” description of the U.S. opposing trade costs [01:52]
• Bill’s withering critique of the Trump administration on climate policy (“tragedy when the history of this era is written”) [08:42]
• State fair banter: fried items and butter cows give a brief comic break amid economic doom [29:16–29:44]

Bottom Line:
This episode highlights the sharp deterioration in global climate collaboration, the predictability (and futility) of U.S.–China tit-for-tat trade policies, and the complicated calculus U.S. farmers face in an election year—delivered with the Trade Guys' signature mix of policy expertise and humor.