The Trade Guys

Episode: "Takeaways from Trump's Trip to Asia"
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Phil Luck
Experts: Scott Miller (A), Bill Reinsch (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Trade Guys dig into the aftermath of President Trump’s latest trip to Asia, covering the U.S.-China summit at APEC, new trade agreements with Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations, and a landmark deal with South Korea. The hosts and experts break down the details, significance, and broader implications of the week’s headlines, sharing their characteristic blend of sharp observations, policy experience, and dry wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.-China: Trump and Xi’s “Reset” at the APEC Summit

[00:50 – 09:21]

• Substantive Moves:
  • Both sides dropped retaliatory port fees, benefitting all international shippers ([01:42]).
  • Postponement of new rare earth export controls and easing rules on Chinese subsidiaries ([01:54]).
  • U.S. halved the fentanyl tariff, and China reportedly ceased some antitrust investigations into U.S. tech giants ([02:07], [02:22]).
• Limits of the Agreement:
  • The “agreement” resets relations to the pre-trade war status but skirts structural issues—Chinese overcapacity, IP theft, or Taiwan remain untouched ([02:41]).
  • Bill Reinsch:
    "There was no discussion of big stuff like Chinese overcapacity, IP theft. [...] So all the big issues were punted." ([02:41])
• The “Small-Ball” Cycle:
  • Short-term, tactical deals are likely the norm going forward, much like in Trump’s first term ([03:19]).
  • Bill:
    “Think Groundhog Day. [...] We'll repeat endlessly because the big problems are intractable.” ([04:30])
• Chinese Negotiating Leverage:
  • Scott Miller complements China’s negotiation prowess; Trump’s “Art of the Deal” approach faces resistance against major powers ([05:08]).
  • Scott:
    “What they've exposed is President Trump's style... when he counters resistance, he'll drop back.” ([05:23])
• Optimism for U.S. Business:
  • Reset seen as helping traders and companies frustrated by “annoying underbrush” of recent tit-for-tat measures ([06:02]).
  • Scott:
    “Churchill said talk, talk’s always better than world war. [...] backing off the extreme positions is, I think, a positive thing.” ([06:25])
• Skepticism About Implementation:
  • Questions remain about whether China will fulfill new purchase commitments—as in phase one, they only achieved “about 62, 63%” of pledges ([08:45]).
• Economic Pressure as a Political Tool:
  • Economic coercion targets key U.S. constituencies, not just the macro economy ([07:18]).
  • Phil Luck:
    “Economic coercion or economic pressure is not actually an economic tool. It’s a political tool.” ([07:27])

2. ASEAN Agreements: “Bully the Small Guys” & Decoupling Moves

[09:21 – 16:50]

• Deal Details:
  • Malaysia and Cambodia: Full agreement texts promising steep reductions in tariffs and removal of U.S. market access barriers ([10:05]).
  • Thailand and Vietnam: Less specific frameworks, detail-light ([10:34]).
• U.S. Leverage on Smaller Economies:
  • Bill:
    “These are smaller economies and Trump knows he can push them around and he did basically in all the agreements.” ([10:09])
  • Reciprocal U.S. tariffs remain but partners open markets further.
• Digital Policy Shifts:
  • New support for “free flow of information” in digital sections—a partial return to pre-Biden era U.S. positions ([11:07]).
  • No digital service tax commitments from partners seen as a U.S. win ([11:28]).
• National Security Clauses and China Decoupling:
  • U.S. can require Malaysia/Cambodia (with sovereignty caveat) to mirror U.S. export controls/sanctions if a “threat to our security” is alleged ([12:07]).
  • These measures are described as “kind of decoupling agreements,” targeting Chinese content transshipped via third countries ([13:08]).
  • Bill:
    “They're national security measures in the sense that we're really trying to find ways to block Chinese goods from sneaking into our country from other destinations.” ([13:52])
• ASEAN as “Pragmatic Movers”:
  • Scott highlights the group’s careful, incremental approach and refusal to pick sides between the U.S. and China ([14:36], [16:50]).

3. South Korea: Investment Funds & FDI Politics

[16:50 – 24:42]

• New U.S.-ROK Agreement:
  • $350 billion Korean investment package:
    • $150 billion to shipbuilding and $200 billion spread over a decade as $20 billion annual increments ([19:53]).
    • Designed to avoid disrupting Korea’s monetary system or draining reserves overnight.
    • Bill:
      “The idea of sort of forced inbound investment may not be a very good one, but if you have made the commitment, this is probably a decent outcome for them compared to some other things.” ([20:23])
  • Malaysia makes a similar $70B commitment ([21:10]).
• Boeing as a Big Winner:
  • Multiple countries pledged major aircraft purchases ([21:10]).
• Impact of U.S. Industrial Policy & Visa Issues:
  • Recent raids on the Hyundai facility in Georgia strained negotiations, reflecting sensitivity over foreign investment treatment ([21:50]).
  • Visa confusion for Korean intra-company transfers has reportedly been resolved ([23:22]).
  • Scott:
    “It is very important to have experts [...] available to building a site somewhere else.” ([24:17])
• Collateral Damage:
  • Hanwha Oceans, a Korean shipbuilder, remains sanctioned by China for working with the U.S. ([24:48]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the U.S.-China reset:
  • Bill: "So basically, what you've got is a giant reset, essentially back to last March or February." ([02:22])
• Characterizing the cycle:
  • Bill: “We'll repeat endlessly because the big problems are intractable. So we just keep punting on those.” ([04:32])
• On the implementation of agreements:
  • Bill: “They bought about, I think, 62, 63% of the commitments they'd made. So watch the soybean market and see what actually happens.” ([08:45])
• Digital policy shift:
  • Bill: “Trump administration is returning to the pre-Biden time in its support for free flow of information.” ([11:07])
• ASEAN pragmatism:
  • Scott: “The one thing about ASEAN is entirely pragmatic. [...] They never seem to go backwards. They always move toward more openness.” ([15:10])
• On the politics of FDI:
  • Phil: “It’s hard to overstate how impactful the raids on the Hyundai facility in Georgia were. [...] The idea that we would sort of treat a partner that way... did make this more difficult even just politically.” ([21:50])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic/Segment | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 00:50–09:21 | U.S.–China: Trump–Xi APEC meeting, short-term reset | | 09:21–16:50 | ASEAN agreements, digital and security provisions | | 16:50–24:42 | South Korea deal, investment fund, Boeing sales | | 24:42–26:39 | Closing thoughts, caution about fast-rolling details |

Tone and Final Reflections

Throughout, the Trade Guys maintain their accessible, policy-savvy, and occasionally wry tone, making complex trade diplomacy relatable:

• Scott sums up the mood: “Churchill said, talk, talk’s always better than world war.” ([06:25])
• Bill closes optimistically about continued work: “Great. That sounds like full employment to me, Bill.” ([26:22])
• All agree that while this week saw progress, most "big" issues have merely been delayed and more developments are inevitable.

For the latest in trade policy, and more ongoing developments, stay tuned to the Trade Guys!