Podcast Summary: The Trade Guys

Episode: "The Future of Globalization and Other Big Questions"

Date: October 13, 2025
Host: Philip Luck
Guests: Scott Miller, Bill Reinsch (CSIS Trade Experts)
Podcast: The Trade Guys, CSIS

Episode Overview

This special live episode explores the evolving landscape of globalization, the resilience and recalibration of the global trading system, and the fate of the rules-based order. Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch engage in a candid, sometimes optimistic, sometimes critical, discussion on whether globalization is dead, the durability of tariffs, the future of the WTO, and the increasing ideological sorting within international trade relationships.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Is Globalization Dead? (00:55–09:00)

• Bill Reinsch’s Perspective:

  • Globalization is not dead and may not even be "on life support." Powerful technological drivers—containerization, cheap communication, digitization—are irreversible and continue to foster global economic linkages despite political headwinds.
  • Trade patterns are realigning along ideological lines; democracies trade more with each other, as do authoritarian states.
  • The U.S. has positioned itself as less reliable, causing others to pursue alternatives, evidenced by a flurry of trade agreements without U.S. involvement (e.g., EU-Mercosur, India with EFTA/New Zealand/China, UAE with multiple countries).
  • Quote: "I don't think [globalization] is dead. I'm not even sure it's on life support ... The tools that enabled it haven't gone away." – Bill Reinsch (01:43)

• Scott Miller’s Perspective:

  • Echoes Bill’s optimism: "Once a useful invention is demonstrated and is beneficial, you don't forget it." (04:50)
  • Compares globalization to technological advancement—it never truly disappears because its underlying drivers (like container shipping) remain.
  • Acknowledges that technological change doesn’t guarantee cooperation or prevent the imposition of barriers.
  • Provides historical context: Global trade as a proportion of world GDP has fluctuated but the overall trend is upwards, with periodic backsliding.

• Host (Philip Luck) Pushes Back:

  • Accepts the optimism but emphasizes the importance of a supportive system of rules, highlighting the increasing weaponization of trade and realignment around ideology for security objectives.
  • Notes services trade is where most growth is currently occurring ("about 60% of all growth in trade," even if from a smaller base) and remains less restricted—for now.

The Persistence of Tariffs & Policy Inertia (09:27–12:18)

• Tariff Reality Check:
  • Scott notes that once trade barriers or tariffs are imposed, they are rarely removed, regardless of which administration is in power.
  • Cites Trump-era tariffs on China left unchanged by Biden.
  • Quote: "Once a barrier is applied, it's very difficult to remove ... does anybody remember how many of those tariffs were reduced in the Biden administration? ... Zero." – Scott Miller (09:35)
• Inside the Biden Administration:
  • Philip Luck shares a first-hand account of efforts to "Bidenize" tariffs—make them smarter and more strategic—but explains the political difficulty of reducing them due to entrenched domestic interests.
  • Quote: "When you finally get to the idea of lowering tariffs ... there's a domestic constituency who shows up and says, 'Well, hey, now that things are pretty good now with that.'" – Philip Luck (10:57)

The Rules-Based Trading System: At a Crossroads (12:18–19:16)

• Plurilaterals & Rule-Stretching:
  • Bill views the future as being dominated by plurilateral deals ("coalitions of the willing"), both inside and outside the WTO, since consensus-based multilateralism is ineffective.
  • Critiques India's obstructionist approach at the WTO, blocking deals when its demands aren't met, and notes that the U.S. is not the sole culprit.
  • The proliferation of preferential trade agreements is stretching the system’s rules—especially on whether they truly cover "substantially all trade."
  • Quote: "We're heading for plurilaterals, coalitions, the willing ... countries that want to be more ambitious ... are getting together ... and trying to be more ambitious on their own." – Bill Reinsch (12:54)
• Scott’s Institutional Analysis:
  • Argues it's not just a matter of obstruction but of antiquated institutions no longer fit for a changed global landscape (echoing George Friedman's "The Storm Before the Calm").
  • The last comprehensive multilateral trade round (Doha) became obsolete as the global balance shifted and objectives diverged; even its homeland has stopped talking about it.
  • Quote: "Some institutions ... created in the postwar era ... are no longer solving the problems they once solved." – Scott Miller (17:03)

Why Multilateralism Stumbled (19:16–22:24)

• The Doha Round’s Demise:
  • Philip, Scott, and Bill recount how the Doha Development Agenda lost business and political support as its objectives became misaligned with the era of a rising China.
    • Businesses found it unexciting and were unable/unwilling to lobby Congress on its behalf.
  • Quote: "There has to be some people out there in the private sector saying, we want this. ... She [Susan Schwab] couldn't find anybody that wanted to stand up and do that." – Bill Reinsch (20:34)

The China Challenge: Capacity, Security, and Trust (22:24–24:24)

• Overcapacity & Security:
  • Bill flags China’s "overcapacity" problem (or, in Chinese terminology, "involution")—"We're making too much stuff and we don't know what to do with it. So we'll sell it to you." (22:57)
  • National security issues have moved far beyond traditional sectors (steel, semiconductors) to include everything from furniture to truck parts, often justified by broad-sweeping security rhetoric.
• Fragmented Trust:
  • Erosion of trust between the West and China, as well as internally within the U.S. government and public, erodes the foundation for cooperative trade.
  • Quote: "We don't trust them anymore. And that's complicated the trade perspective ..." – Bill Reinsch (23:46)
• Trade Defense Measures Are Broad, Not Just Against China:
  • Restrictions often target multiple countries, not just China, reflecting wider economic anxieties.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Once a useful invention is demonstrated and is beneficial, you don't forget it."
  — Scott Miller (04:50)
• "I don't think [globalization] is dead. I'm not even sure it's on life support ... The tools that enabled it haven't gone away."
  — Bill Reinsch (01:43)
• "Once a barrier is applied, it's very difficult to remove ... does anybody remember how many of those tariffs were reduced in the Biden administration? ... Zero."
  — Scott Miller (09:35)
• "We're heading for plurilaterals, coalitions, the willing ... countries that want to be more ambitious ... are getting together ... and trying to be more ambitious on their own."
  — Bill Reinsch (12:54)
• "Some institutions ... created in the postwar era ... are no longer solving the problems they once solved."
  — Scott Miller (17:03)
• "There has to be some people out there in the private sector saying, we want this. ... She [Susan Schwab] couldn't find anybody that wanted to stand up and do that."
  — Bill Reinsch (20:34)
• "We're making too much stuff and we don't know what to do with it. So we'll sell it to you."
  — Bill Reinsch (22:57)
• "We don't trust them anymore. And that's complicated the trade perspective ..."
  — Bill Reinsch (23:46)

Important Timestamps

• 00:55–04:25: Bill Reinsch on why globalization isn’t dead
• 04:25–08:15: Scott Miller on technological drivers and history of global trade cycles
• 09:27–10:46: Tariff persistence post-Trump; politics of rolling back barriers
• 12:54–15:00: Rise of plurilateral agreements, WTO impasse, India's role
• 16:38–19:16: Institutional malaise and the fate of the multilateral system
• 20:24–22:24: Why the Doha Round failed (Susan Schwab anecdote)
• 22:24–24:24: The China conundrum: overcapacity, security, and eroding trust

Conclusion

The conversation offers a nuanced, sometimes wry, assessment of globalization’s future. The Trade Guys agree that globalization, powered by unstoppable technology and mutual economic benefit, is still alive—albeit reorganizing into more ideologically selective and fragmented spheres. While the traditional rules-based order is ailing, trade policy will likely see more plurilateral and regional deals aimed at like-minded countries, as the constraints of declining trust and rising security concerns shape tomorrow’s trade landscape. The U.S. remains on the sidelines, risking long-term influence. Globalization is not dead, but it is evolving in unpredictable ways.