The Trade Guys

Episode: The Show Must Go On: New Tariffs and the Role of the Dollar
Date: July 21, 2025
Host/Moderator: Evan Brown
Guests: Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch

Overview

This poignant episode of The Trade Guys navigates recent U.S. tariff actions, the evolving role of the dollar in global markets, and the legacy of Andrew Schwartz, the podcast’s late co-founder and moderator. Through expert commentary and candid exchange, trade veterans Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch break down policy shifts, media narratives, and the implications for the economy — all against the backdrop of momentous changes at CSIS.

Tribute to Andrew Schwartz

(00:47 – 06:50)

• Opening Reflections: The episode begins with a heartfelt tribute to Andrew Schwartz, CSIS’s chief communications officer and the founding moderator of The Trade Guys, who passed away unexpectedly.
• Personal Memories:
  • Bill Reinsch (01:36): Recalls bonding with Andrew over swimming and parenting, highlighting Andrew’s passion for mentoring and making policy accessible.
  • Quote: "He insisted that the other thing that we do is that we meet people where they are...no trade speak...explain them, and really get into the basics of the issues” (03:08)
• Legacy and Personality:
  • Scott Miller (04:04): Credits Andrew’s creativity and insight as crucial to the podcast’s identity, from branding to tone.
  • Quote: “He helped shape the podcast from the very beginning. The name – three one-syllable words, the Trade Guys, like Meet the Press...he helped us get better almost every week in every way.” (04:37)
• Decision to Continue: The hosts agree: “The show must go on.” (06:57)

New Tariffs and Negotiations

(07:02 – 18:25)

The Latest Tariffs

• Evan Brown (07:02): Reviews sweeping new tariffs:
  • 35% on Canada
  • 30% on Mexico and the EU
  • 50% on Brazil
  • Indonesia also affected
• Negotiations Ongoing: Concerns over retaliation and lack of published details.

Discrepancies in Reporting and Reality

• Reinsch (07:38): Points out a gap between public announcements and actual agreements.
  • Details remain sparse; only the UK deal is published.
  • Example: Indonesia’s advisor clarifies their agreement is limited and nuanced, contradicting Trump’s sweeping claims.
  • Quote: “It's not about opening up totally and giving in everything to the US. It is more nuanced and balanced than what maybe appears to be to the outsider.” (09:23)

The Importance of Trade Professionals

• Miller (10:49): Underscores the value of trade professionals and detailed, bracketed texts in creating clear, enforceable agreements.
  • Media headlines often misrepresent scope; actual impacts are much narrower.
  • Quote: “There’s a difference between the volume of the headline...and then the text is they’re still negotiating on the end date for the world.” (11:32)
• Illustration: Despite weeks of alarming headlines, actual import prices remain flat compared to last year.

Economic Impact: Anecdotes vs. Data

• Reinsch (13:26): Cites a forecaster who minimizes tariff impact (“only 17% of consumer price index”), but notes certain goods like automobiles could see notable price hikes.
  • Coffee tariffs: “If your latte is $5.99, the value of the coffee is a dollar. So 20%, twenty cents...are you going to go to war over a 20 cent increase?” (14:09)
  • Automobile tariffs could raise prices by thousands.
  • Immediate impact muted by inventory stockpiles; price effects likely this fall if tariffs persist.

Presidential Negotiation Tactics

• Trump’s Strategy:
  • Reinsch (16:41): “Extreme demands, big threats, and then fall back, fall back, fall back and settle for something small.”
  • Miller: “The voters had the choice of a conventional politician, and they chose Donald Trump. So that’s what we got.” (18:03)
• Political Observations:
  • Conflict drives media coverage and is central to Trump’s style.
  • “He’s an artist in creating conflict. Everything is a fight, and so that’s what the voters are getting...” (18:25)

The Role of the Dollar

(19:08 – 27:26)

Safe Haven Status & International Reserve Currency

• Miller (19:39): Explains why the dollar retains privileged global status:
  • Most stable and liquid asset
  • Principal medium for international settlements
  • Open, contestable financial markets
  • No obvious global successor (China’s RMB lacks convertibility, Euro is strong but limited)
  • 10% universal tariff contributed to highest tariff revenue and, as theory predicts, slight softening of the dollar and export boost.
  • Quote: “The dollar has the status of the world’s reserve currency, mostly because it’s considered the least bad asset to hold.” (19:41)

Risks and Global Competitors

• Reinsch (22:40):
  • Recommends “King Dollar” by Paul Blustein for historical perspective.
  • Notes Russia and China are trying but struggling to dethrone the dollar:
    • Russia’s workaround due to sanctions
    • China’s limited success in Africa with RMB
  • U.S. default risk (from debt ceiling debates) is the true existential threat to dollar supremacy, not tariffs alone.
    • Quote: “Until the currency is fully convertible, [China isn’t] going to get very far, so I think the dollar reigns supreme...” (24:11)

Economic Consequences

• Tariffs could drive up bond yields, raising U.S. borrowing costs and potentially pushing toward recession—though impact modest so far.
• Long-term, if policy errors mount, the U.S. could see real currency challenge, but “we won’t farewell to the dollar for a long time.” (26:18)

Gold as a Safe Haven

• Banter about Gold:
  • Gold’s surging performance—best-performing 21st-century asset—signals global unease.
  • Quote: “Gold is the best performing asset of the 21st century...and the signal there is, people are nervous.” (27:05, 27:14)

Notable Quotes

• Bill Reinsch on moderation and accessibility:
  “He insisted that...we meet people where they are...no trade speak...explain them, and really get into the basics...” (03:08)
• Scott Miller on media narratives:
  “There’s a difference between the volume of the headline...and then the text is they’re still negotiating on the end date for the world.” (11:32)
• Bill Reinsch on Trump’s strategy:
  “Extreme demands, big threats, and then fall back, fall back, fall back and settle for something small.” (16:41)
• Scott Miller on dollar dominance:
  “The dollar has the status of the world’s reserve currency, mostly because it’s considered the least bad asset to hold.” (19:41)
• Bill Reinsch on alternatives:
  “Until the currency is fully convertible, [China isn’t] going to get very far, so I think the dollar reigns supreme...” (24:11)
• Scott Miller on historical perspective:
  “In 400 years of international commerce, there have been exactly three principal currencies—the Dutch Gelder, the British pound and the US Dollar.” (26:18)

Listener Takeaways

• Tariffs: Most headlines are more dramatic than the nuanced, incremental reality; real economic impacts remain limited but may grow if inventory buffers run out and new measures take hold.
• Leadership Style: Trump’s aggressive negotiation tactics and media-centric approach drive volatility and headlines but also catalyze both conflict and change.
• Dollar’s Status: No imminent threat to the dollar’s global dominance; more at risk from U.S. policy missteps than from foreign competitors.
• Markets and Nervousness: Spikes in gold reflect underlying anxieties about both policy direction and market stability.
• Human Element: The loss of Andrew Schwartz underscores the importance of effective communication and making complex issues broadly understandable.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tribute to Andrew Schwartz: 00:47 – 06:50
• Tariffs Discussion and Negotiation Nuances: 07:02 – 13:26
• Economic Impact and Analysis: 13:26 – 18:25
• Role of the Dollar & Global Currencies: 19:08 – 27:26
• Closing Thoughts and Gold Discussion: 26:46 – 27:41

This episode marries policy expertise with personal tribute, capturing both the substance and humanity at the heart of The Trade Guys. Listeners will leave with greater context for current trade policy, a clearer understanding of dollar dynamics, and a reminder of the crucial role communicators play in public affairs.