Podcast Summary: The Trade Guys x Simply Trade – “One Messy Trade Year”

Date: January 13, 2026
Participants:

• Hosts: Scott Miller (A), Bill Reinsch (B) – The Trade Guys (CSIS)
• Guests/Co-hosts: Lalo Solrazzano (C), Andy Shiles (D) – Simply Trade Podcast

Episode Overview

This special, joint episode welcomes 2026 by bringing together two leading international trade podcasts. The conversation bridges high-level trade policy (The Trade Guys) with hands-on compliance and operational realities (Simply Trade). The episode focuses on the major “battlefronts” for trade in 2026, examining political clashes in Washington, the evolving US-China dynamic, the renegotiation of North America’s trade pact, and the tariff debate’s influence on inflation and regulation. With both historic context and current events in play, the group unpacks what’s shaping trade—and the choices companies face—in a volatile global landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Four Trade Battlefronts for 2026

(03:32–06:16)

• Main Battlefronts Identified:
  1. POTUS vs. SCOTUS vs. Congress: Separation of powers as it relates to trade authority, especially after controversial uses of presidential trade powers.
  2. US vs. Mexico/Canada (USMCA): Ongoing tensions and possible renegotiation of the North American trade agreement.
  3. Tariffs – Revenue vs. Inflation: How the use of tariffs is balanced between producing government revenue and contributing to inflation, as well as their effectiveness in practice.
  4. China vs. Rest of the World: Evolving geopolitical and trade dynamics, both bilateral and multilateral.

Memorable Quote:

“There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen. I think you can define 2025 that way.”
— Lalo Solrazzano (01:56)

2. Executive vs. Legislative Power in Trade Policy

(03:32–10:03)

• SCOTUS and Trade Powers: Anticipated Supreme Court decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and whether the president overstepped by using it for tariffs.
• Presidential Flexibility: Ongoing questions about statutory delegation and the risk of prolonged legal uncertainty for businesses.
• Congress’ Role: Hope (mostly unrealized so far) for Congress to reassert its constitutional trade authority.

Memorable Quotes:

“There are no fights in Washington that are better than separation of powers fights. That’s what we all live for.”
— Scott Miller (03:58)
“All that does is prolong the uncertainty. …For your listeners, it prolongs the question of do they get their money back. The answer will be: not yet, if at all.”
— Bill Reinsch (07:04)

3. Practical Realities for Compliance Professionals

(07:55–09:44)

• Tariff Refund Uncertainty: Companies are confused about whether to file protests, petitions, or wait for judicial clarity.
• Complexity of Statutory Authority: The president has numerous tools—Trade Act of 1974 among them—to impose tariffs, but the interplay is legally and operationally convoluted.

Notable Insight:

“It’s unexplored territory. Nobody really knows how this plays out.”
— Scott Miller (07:50)

4. WTO’s Role Amid US Unilateralism

(09:44–13:41)

• US Returns to Some Multilateralism: The US recently withdrew from many international organizations—but not the WTO, where the digital trade (e-commerce tax) moratorium is a key US objective.
• Importance of the Moratorium: Keeping the ban on digital taxes is vital to US tech companies; India is the primary opponent at the next WTO ministerial.
• Challenge: Trump prefers unilateral deals, but needs multilateral consensus to protect US technology and e-commerce interests.

Memorable Quotes:

“The good news is the WTO was not one of them [organizations US withdrew from]. …This moratorium is a big gift to our tech companies.”
— Bill Reinsch (10:03, 12:03)
“That’s one of the reasons the WTO is still effective—it’s a table.”
— Scott Miller (11:33)

5. Tariffs: Impact and the Path Ahead

(13:41–17:17)

• Tariff Levels Lower than Expected: Tariff impacts have been less dire, partly due to exemptions (“coffee gets a free ride, bananas get a free ride”), and the delayed implementation.
• Focus on Cleaning Up Details: Many trade deals and tariff schedules remain unfinished; expect a year of negotiation and “cleanup” work rather than new sweeping measures.
• US Economic Tailwinds: Despite uncertainty, lower energy costs and foreign investment bolster the US economy; tariffs remain a drag, but less than predicted.

Memorable Quotes:

“I see a threat to more tariffs, but what I really see is an effort to clean up all these agreements and try to put them into some form that’s final and manageable.”
— Bill Reinsch (15:31)
“Maybe the economists will get it right this time… The one place where they were in most fundamental error is …we expected retaliation—and the absence of retaliation …was probably the reason that many of the more dire forecasts did not come true.”
— Scott Miller (16:07)

6. The US-China Cycle: Decoupling, Retaliation, & Stalemate

(17:22–24:22)

• Managed Separation: The trade relationship is often described as a cycle—provocation, retaliation, summit to “pull back,” and repeat.
• No Real Resolution: The fundamental US-China differences remain unsolved; negotiations achieve only “managed separation.”
• China’s Quality Leap: Chinese exports (e.g., automobiles) are catching up in quality and value globally, concerning competitors worldwide.

Memorable Quotes:

“China and the US are getting a divorce, and they’re trying to be decent for the sake of the children.”
— Scott Miller (19:40)
“What we’ve gotten into here is a cycle of provocation by one side or the other… then a meeting where everybody agrees to calm down.”
— Bill Reinsch (19:00)

7. Supply Chain Shifts & Forced Labor Rules

(23:29–24:22)

• Shifts Away from China: Legislative actions like the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, along with global enforcement, are motivating companies to diversify sourcing away from China.
• China’s Hardball: China continues to find new export markets, but volumes don’t match prior US sales.

8. North America’s Family Feud: USMCA’s Uncertain Future

(24:22–32:03)

• US-Canada-Mexico Dynamics: Relations between US and Canada are especially strained; compliance with rules of origin is challenging.
• USMCA Renewal Options: Scenarios range from letting the agreement lapse, defaulting to a 10-year extension (with annual talks), or splintering into bilateral agreements.
• Core Dispute: Preventing Mexico from being a backdoor for Chinese imports is a prime US demand; Canada faces its own regulatory and reputational crises.

Memorable Quotes:

“Nothing more than a family fight. This is literally a family fight.”
— Lalo Solrazzano (24:30)
“The main demand is to prevent Mexico from being a backdoor to Chinese imports. …That’s an area where they might find some common ground with the Mexican government.”
— Bill Reinsch (28:22)

9. The Compliance Crunch: De Minimis & Administrative Complexity

(30:48–34:14)

• De Minimis Debate: Customs value thresholds (de minimis) have both eased and complicated compliance. Efforts to restrict their abuse (by platforms like Shein or Temu) risk overwhelming systems with paperwork.
• Policy vs. Practice: Each change makes life more complex. There’s a risk of running the system “off the rails.”

Memorable Quotes:

“I wonder why we haven’t crashed [the compliance system] completely about three times a month.”
— Scott Miller (30:48)
“There is a need for de minimis. The pendulum effect… instead of a shotgun approach for everything, draft regulations so people don’t abuse it.”
— Andy Shiles (31:24)

10. Congress Stirring, But Gridlock Looms

(32:38–34:14)

• African Trade Deals as Bellwether: Upcoming AGOA renewal (African Growth and Opportunity Act) represents a small, tentative step for Congressional reengagement on trade.
• Hope for Targeted Reform: Maybe Congress can fix de minimis “the right way”—but legislative consensus remains elusive.

Actionable Advice for Companies & Advocates

(34:14–38:07)

• Direct Congressional Engagement: Companies need to build ongoing relationships with their Representatives, explaining concretely how trade policy changes affect their operations.
• Grassroots Pressure: Attending town halls, campaign events, and repeatedly raising key issues (e.g. de minimis) can influence policy priorities, especially in an election year.

Key Advice Quotes:

“Develop relations with constituent members and talk to them regularly about what life is really like when they make a policy change… The companies know.”
— Scott Miller (34:51)
“Grassroots can be very effective, but they’ve got to do the work.”
— Bill Reinsch (36:09)

• Support for Advocacy Groups: Groups like NCBFAA are working to create buffer policies (e.g. a 30-day “adapt” window before new trade rules take effect), and industry support can help wise initiatives gain traction.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you make a prediction, if you’re wrong, nobody remembers… If you’re right, you can keep reminding them… The dirty little secret is it’s a very small pond, but it’s more than 2 [trade podcasts].”
  — Bill Reinsch (38:19)

• “Just ask a question… if enough people ask questions about what are you doing about de minimis, the candidate’s going to go back… and say, wait a minute, I need to know something about that.”
  — Bill Reinsch (36:09)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Battlefronts & Outlook: 03:32–06:16
• SCOTUS, Congress & Tariff Authority: 06:16–10:03
• WTO’s Future & E-Commerce: 09:44–13:41
• Tariffs, Retaliation & Economic Impact: 13:41–17:17
• US-China Negotiation Cycle: 17:22–24:22
• USMCA & North America’s Trade Drama: 24:22–32:03
• Compliance Crunch: De Minimis & Enforcement Complexity: 30:48–34:14
• Getting Heard: Advocacy Strategies: 34:14–38:07

Tone & Takeaway

Both reflective and direct, the episode balances policy wonkery with pragmatic insights for businesses wrestling with fast-moving rules and politics—while never losing its sense of good-natured camaraderie. The hosts stress the importance of advocacy, pragmatic adaptation, and the need for both vigilance and skepticism as a “messy” trade year unfolds.

Listen for More

For listeners wanting deeper dives or real-time updates, both podcasts (The Trade Guys and Simply Trade) were recommended as top resources for staying informed—and engaged—on international trade.

Summary prepared for those who need the highlights, nuances, and action items from “One Messy Trade Year,” without the ad breaks or fluff. All the insight, none of the static.