The Trade Guys (CSIS) – Episode Summary

Episode: USMCA Renegotiation, U.S.-China Trade Thaw, and the Return of Congress
Date: November 18, 2025
Hosts: Scott Miller, Bill Reinsch
Moderator: Alex Kisling

Overview

In this episode, the Trade Guys (Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch, moderated by Alex Kisling) break down three key topics at the center of U.S. and global trade discussions: the looming USMCA six-year review and renegotiation, the so-called “thaw” in U.S.-China trade relations following the Trump-Xi meeting, and the anticipated role of the U.S. Congress as it returns from a lengthy government shutdown, particularly regarding tariffs and legislative oversight.

The conversation is packed with expert insights, historical context, candid opinions, and the trademark wit of the Trade Guys, offering listeners an accessible yet in-depth guide to where trade policy might be headed as 2026 approaches.

1. The USMCA Six-Year Review: What’s at Stake?

[03:00–13:00]

Structure and Stakes of the Review

• Scott: Outlines the formal review mechanism built into USMCA, which distinguishes it from NAFTA’s less structured processes. This six-year “renegotiation commitment” provides a critical moment to reevaluate the agreement.

  “When NAFTA became USMCA...there was a much more structured and formal review put in place at year six, literally a renegotiation commitment in the concluding chapters.” – Scott [03:06]

• The US, Canada, and Mexico have a history of reviewing unsolved issues (e.g., softwood lumber, dairy, poultry), while sometimes new topics emerge.

• President Trump is expected to focus heavily on “critical minerals” given Canada’s resources and expertise, and similar leverage with Mexico.

Four Possible Outcomes of the Review

• Bill: Breaks down the complicated options embedded in the agreement:
  1. Extension (with or without changes): Resets the 16-year clock; new reviews every six years.
  2. Refusal to Extend: Triggers annual meetings for up to 10 years, but the agreement continues.
  3. Withdrawal: Any party can pull out—Trump may threaten but likely won’t do it.
  4. Breaking into Bilaterals: Trump is known to prefer bilateral deals to prevent the others from “ganging up” on the U.S.

  “Trump likes bilaterals because it means the other guys can’t gang up on us and we’re usually the bigger country. In a bilateral, we certainly would be in this context.” – Bill [06:39]

U.S. Concerns: China as the Backdoor

• Main U.S. objective is preventing Mexico (and Canada) from being a “backdoor for China.” Concerns include transshipments and Chinese companies using North America to gain tariff benefits.
• A specific demand: Mexico to establish a CFIUS-style review for inbound investments—already promised but not delivered.

Canadian and Mexican Perspectives

• Bill: “I think survival. I think they just want to keep the agreement intact without further punishment.” [09:37]
• Both countries hope to preserve existing barriers (e.g., Canadian dairy/poultry; Mexican vegetables), and Mexico faces scrutiny over its energy policy.

Grievances and Political Realities

• The review will begin with a classic “airing of grievances,” referencing Festivus humorously.

  “It’ll start off as like Festivus does, with an airing of grievances. So, you know, ‘I got a lot of problems with you people’...” – Scott [10:09]

• Recurring disputes (like softwood lumber and dairy) are entrenched and difficult to solve—“these things are really, really complicated” (Bill [11:48]).

Historical Perspective

• Bill: “There was a debate for the more than 25 years of NAFTA over who won and who lost… It was good for the country and bad for West Virginia.” [11:37]

2. U.S.–China Trade Thaw: Real Progress or Just ‘Kicking the Can’?

[13:00–21:45]

The Trump-Xi Meeting: Outcomes and Spin

• Bill: Characterizes recent events as “a punt...kicking the can.” Talks about months of retaliatory moves: tariffs, port fees, export controls.

  “What they’ve done is...unravel the leverage moves they’d taken against each other...so we got rid of the 100% tariff threat, we lowered the fentanyl tariffs from 20% to 10%...eliminated the port fees.” [13:31]

• Many “barrier changes” are postponements, not resolutions.

The Rare Earths and Export Licenses Issue

• China temporarily blocked exports of critical minerals, causing U.S. anxiety. Most restrictions now “rolled back”—but only procedurally. Formal controls remain.
• Discussion about specific vs. general export licenses; the latter offers certainty but hasn’t been restored by China yet.

The Pattern: Endless Resets

• Bill: “It’s Groundhog Day, basically, the movie, not the holiday...Trump’s going to go to China in April, probably, and they’ll do things to each other between now and then...and they can’t agree on the big things, so they spend their time on the small things.” [17:36]
• Scott: “It was certainly what got started in Trump 45, with the phase one, phase two, and nothing really happening… It looks to me like the Chinese did read his [Trump’s] book. They read The Art of the Deal, they understand how he approaches things, and I think they’ve got a pretty good fix on the guy.” [18:53]

The Critical Minerals Dilemma

• U.S. needs to secure non-Chinese sources for key minerals but faces challenges: cost, environmental hurdles, and market interference.
• Bill: “If the Chinese create a situation where [U.S. companies] can’t possibly make any money, they’re not going to do it or they're going to go bankrupt, as past plants have done.” [20:35]
• Government intervention—purchase guarantees, price floors—may be needed, but these are “years down the road.”

3. Congress Returns: Will It Reassert Authority over Trade?

[21:49–30:44]

After the Government Shutdown

• Alex: Congress returns—but only temporarily. Shutdown may resume after January 30. “Groundhog Day again. It's everywhere.” [21:59]

Tariffs, Authority, and Congressional Action

• Scott: The crux is the congressional vs. executive tussle. Trump’s use of broad statutory authority (intended for adversaries), weaponized against allies, has created “a conflict between Congress and the executive about what authority is delegated and what is not.” [22:18]
• Advocates for Congress to create a trade “title” in upcoming legislation: codify agreements, update statutes, direct tariff revenue usage.

  “...the Congress would have a chance to weigh in on tariffs as leverage...they have a chance to update statutes.” – Scott [25:04]

Political Feasibility

• Bill: Not optimistic about major congressional action on tariffs.

  “Oh, yeah, right. I don’t think much is going to happen.” [25:46]

• Congressional Republicans: privately unhappy, publicly cowed by fear of Trump.
• Democrats: conflicted; growing acceptance of tariffs reduces oppositional clarity.

Behind the Scenes: Realities of D.C. Pushback

• Senators have begun to push back on some reciprocal tariffs; not the House yet.
• Unusual “50 nominations withdrawn” stat signals resistance—but often behind closed doors to avoid public fights.

The Supreme Court Factor

• Potential Supreme Court rulings (e.g., on IEPA) could force Congress’s hand, but neither branch seems eager to clarify their respective powers.

  “If things work the way they were supposed to, if Trump loses in court, what he ought to do in theory is go to the Congress and say, give me legislation that puts these tariffs in place. That’s the way it’s supposed to work.” – Bill [30:12]

4. Memorable Quotes and Moments

• “I got a lot of problems with you people is how essentially the negotiations start.” – Scott, invoking Festivus [10:09]
• “Trump likes bilaterals because it means the other guys can’t gang up on us and we’re usually the bigger country...he prefers bilaterals.” – Bill [06:39]
• “If the Chinese create a situation where [U.S. companies] can’t possibly make any money, they’re not going to do it or they’re going to go bankrupt, as past plants have done.” – Bill [20:35]
• “In the meantime, he’s going fast and breaking things. So that’s been his M.O. this time.” – Scott [29:05]

5. Episode Structure: Key Timestamps

• USMCA Review Begins: [03:00]
• Four Scenarios, Trump’s Bilateral Preference: [05:18–08:30]
• Mexican/Canadian Objectives and Festivus Airing: [09:29–10:49]
• Trade History Perspectives: [11:37–12:58]
• U.S.-China Trade Thaw Segment Opens: [13:00]
• Licenses, Rare Earths, Reset Patterns: [16:00–17:36]
• U.S. Minerals Supply Chain Dilemma: [19:47–21:45]
• Congress Returns and Tariff Politics: [21:49–25:43]
• Supreme Court and Trade Authority Discussion: [29:15–30:44]

6. Tone and Style

• Informative yet conversational, with dry wit and pop culture nods (Festivus, Groundhog Day).
• Historically grounded but future-looking; never shies from policy complexity.
• Balanced, often skeptical of overblown “breakthroughs,” and candid about political gridlock.

7. What’s Next?

• Thanksgiving episode preview, with a teaser about the central role of trade in making a classic American Thanksgiving dinner possible.

  “Trade has a big factor in making it a great Thanksgiving dinner. Probably bigger than most Americans suppose.” – Scott [31:01]

For listeners seeking a deep, unvarnished look at the state of U.S. trade policy—with insights only true veterans can provide—this episode is a must.