Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Tucker Carlson Show - Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia

Episode Details:

• Title: The Tucker Carlson Show
• Host: Tucker Carlson Network
• Episode: Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia
• Release Date: February 21, 2025

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Introduction

In this enlightening episode of The Tucker Carlson Show, host Tucker Carlson engages in a profound conversation with renowned investor and economist Ray Dalio. The discussion delves into the concept of America's "hidden civil war," exploring the deep-seated polarization within the nation. Dalio further examines the United States' competitive stance against China in technology, economics, and academia, while also addressing the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on society and the economy.

America’s Hidden Civil War

Polarization and Irreconcilable Differences

The episode opens with Tucker Carlson questioning Dalio's assertion that the United States is embroiled in a civil war—a perspective not widely recognized by the average American.

[00:08] Ray Dalio: "There are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for in order to get the outcomes that they want."

Dalio clarifies that this "civil war" isn't a conventional armed conflict but rather a societal struggle marked by significant ideological divides. These differences are so profound that traditional mechanisms like the legal system may be insufficient to mediate them.

Wealth and Values Gaps

Dalio emphasizes the widening gaps in wealth and values as primary drivers of this internal conflict.

[01:48] Ray Dalio: "We are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that."

He highlights historical precedents where similar divides surfaced, leading to various societal outcomes. The current polarization is evidenced by unprecedented partisanship, with voting patterns showing the highest gaps since 1900.

[03:10] Ray Dalio: "The gap in measuring conservative or liberal votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900."

Resolving the Conflict

Limitations of Traditional Solutions

When asked about potential resolutions beyond violence, Dalio expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of compromise in the current climate.

[02:30] Ray Dalio: "It was the combination of globalization and technology... produces a larger wealth gap."

He suggests that societal fragmentation is likely to continue, as the polarized factions find it increasingly difficult to find common ground.

Role of the Legal System and Enforceability

Dalio discusses the challenges posed by issues like sanctuary cities, where the enforceability of laws becomes contentious.

[01:17] Ray Dalio: "Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law."

This breakdown in respect for legal frameworks exacerbates the conflict, making traditional legislative or judicial solutions less viable.

Impact of Globalization and Technology

Globalization’s Dual Effects

Dalio attributes the current polarization to globalization and technological advancements, which have significantly altered the economic landscape.

[05:14] Ray Dalio: "The change was in a combination of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not being productive."

Globalization has led to manufacturing shifts and economic disparities, while technology has created productivity gaps, leaving a significant portion of the population feeling disenfranchised.

Productivity and Education Gaps

A critical point in the discussion is the correlation between productivity, education, and income.

[05:14] Ray Dalio: "If you take the average 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level... you have to make that population productive."

Dalio argues that improving education and productivity among the lower-income segments is essential for bridging the wealth gap and fostering a more harmonious society.

AI Transformation and Its Implications

AI’s Revolutionary Impact

Dalio posits that AI represents one of the most transformative forces in history, akin to the printing press or the industrial revolution.

[12:32] Ray Dalio: "This is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking."

AI's ability to process and analyze complex data can revolutionize various sectors, making operations more efficient and powerful. However, this comes with significant societal and ethical considerations.

AI in Economics and Decision-Making

The conversation shifts to AI's role in economics, where Dalio envisions AI aiding in more accurate and micro-level economic analyses.

[21:04] Ray Dalio: "We're going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better."

AI can potentially remove the guessing element from economic forecasting, allowing for more informed policy decisions. However, Dalio underscores that human nature and societal harmony remain critical factors that AI alone cannot address.

US-China Competition in Tech and Manufacturing

Race to Dominate AI and Robotics

Dalio discusses the intense competition between the United States and China in the realms of AI and robotics.

[29:55] Ray Dalio: "China has about 33% of the manufacturing in the world... they're ahead on the application of chips and robotics."

Despite the U.S.'s strengths in innovation and intellectual property, China leverages its manufacturing prowess and cost-effective production, creating a multifaceted competition landscape.

Intellectual Property and Manufacturing Advantages

Dalio highlights the challenges in maintaining intellectual property protections and China's dominance in manufacturing.

[30:18] Ray Dalio: "It's very difficult to keep intellectual property... production of things in China at a very inexpensive way."

This dynamic suggests a future where both nations excel in different areas, leading to a complex interplay of advantages and disadvantages.

Future Uncertainties and Human Nature

Unpredictable Technological Progress

Dalio expresses uncertainty about the future, especially with advancements like quantum computing.

[24:54] Ray Dalio: "The world five years from now is going to be a radically different world."

While AI offers immense potential, Dalio is cautious about its unpredictable consequences, emphasizing that human behavior and societal responses will significantly shape the outcome.

Economic Strategies and AI

Addressing economic challenges, Dalio discusses the role AI could play in developing strategies to reduce national debt and manage economic policies more effectively.

[20:34] Ray Dalio: "There's a question of whether you can have social and totality and totalitarian controls or maybe you just have anarchy."

He acknowledges that while AI can provide sophisticated strategies, the implementation relies heavily on human cooperation and societal harmony.

Importance of Harmony and Community

Community as a Determinant of Happiness

Dalio underscores the importance of community in achieving societal harmony and happiness, which are often neglected in favor of economic and military power.

[39:51] Ray Dalio: "The highest determinant of happiness is community."

He presents data showing that economic power does not necessarily correlate with health or happiness, advocating for a balanced approach that prioritizes community well-being alongside economic growth.

Educational and Civil Initiatives

To foster harmony, Dalio advocates for comprehensive education that emphasizes both capabilities and civility.

[42:58] Ray Dalio: "Educate them in capabilities so they're capable, but also in civility and how they are with each other."

He believes that educating the younger generation in both productivity and interpersonal skills is crucial for future societal cohesion.

Conclusion

In this compelling episode, Ray Dalio provides a deep dive into the intricate web of America's internal divisions and its competitive stance against China. He highlights the transformative power of AI while cautioning against its potential societal impacts. Dalio emphasizes the necessity of community and harmony as foundational elements for addressing the nation's polarized landscape and navigating the uncertainties of technological advancements. The conversation serves as a stark reminder that while technological and economic strategies are vital, the essence of societal well-being lies in human relationships and collective harmony.

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Notable Quotes:

• Ray Dalio [00:08]: "There are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for in order to get the outcomes that they want."

• Ray Dalio [01:48]: "We are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that."

• Ray Dalio [05:14]: "If you take the average 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level... you have to make that population productive."

• Ray Dalio [12:32]: "This is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking."

• Ray Dalio [21:04]: "We're going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better."

• Ray Dalio [29:55]: "China has about 33% of the manufacturing in the world... they're ahead on the application of chips and robotics."

• Ray Dalio [39:51]: "The highest determinant of happiness is community."

• Ray Dalio [42:58]: "Educate them in capabilities so they're capable, but also in civility and how they are with each other."

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This summary encapsulates the core discussions and insights from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Tucker Carlson]

So I've heard you say that the United States is in a civil war, and I think most Americans don't perceive that. Can you tell us what you mean by that?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, what I mean by a civil war, I should say a type of civil war. Right. And what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for in order to get the outcomes that they want. And that in that environment, the issues of how does the legal system work, is that going to stand in the way of that fight, or is there going to be a fight that will make the cause more important than anything? So that's the type of situation that we're in. And those gaps we understand there's common, there's wealth and values gaps are entering to this. This is. We've seen this through history. So where that goes is a different question. But we are in that type of civil war, are we not?

[Tucker Carlson]

Clearly we are. Clearly we are. How are they resolved? I mean, clearly they can be resolved through violence. But what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have?

[Ray Dalio]

Normally they're resolved through conflict because you get to the point where both sides can't reach agreements. Both sides don't even want to talk. Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law. So when we're dealing with things like sanctuary city issues and we're dealing with enforceability, who has the enforceability? Okay. And you almost have to play out. Okay. Enforceability means police forces and such things. Right?

[Tucker Carlson]

People with guns.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah, right. People with guns and, you know, causes that. Just because the legal thing says they shouldn't do that, that's not going to stand in the way. We have that kind of situation. So we are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that. So normally it goes that way. I mean, the only thing that can be done is to have the fear of that, create a necessity for having another path. You know, like we were talking about the debt situation.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

So can. Can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not? I think it's unlikely. I think we're going to more fragmentation states. There are some states, other states, I think you're going to see more fragmentation. And so. But, you know, it's like this dynamic through history. This isn't the first time this happened. This happens repeatedly through history, and usually, you know, it runs its course.

[Tucker Carlson]

So the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it completely.

[Casey Means]

Just ignore.

[Ray Dalio]

Well, there's a cycle. You know, the cycle was, let's say, I don't know, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill and they get together and they were operating in a certain way and the manifestations of the circumstances, you know, the manifestations of debt or wealth gap or values gaps were not as great. So you didn't over that 30 year period have as much polarity in many different ways. So now you've gone to greater polarity. If you watch statistics, everything I do comes from measuring things. So I look at statistics. The gap in measuring conservative or liberal votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900. And the voting across party lines is the least since 1900. So you see this gap. You see it in the elections, the green and red, the blue and red. So it's not just an evolutionary. It's where we are, where we have gotten to, that is the irreconcilable questions. Does the Supreme Court, you know, we thought about the Supreme Court differently not long ago. Right. The Supreme Court was the Supreme Court. And so now it's different.

[Tucker Carlson]

So what accounts? I mean, there are a million ways to measure this and all of them.

[Ray Dalio]

Do you agree?

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, of course I agree. Of course I agree. And I agree with you that every measurement shows the same result, which is the country. So we know where we are, but what completely. And we're not sure how it's resolved. But I think it's also worth pausing to ask what hap. What was the change that led to the polarization that was unimaginable even 35 years ago?

[Ray Dalio]

The change was in a combination of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not being productive. You have productivity equals income. So now if you take education and you take measures of how productive or how well trained you're going to be, you see, and therefore also income, your productivity, you see by all of these measures, great, great gaps that exist. So by way of example is unicorns and the changes that we're seeing, fabulous changes in what we're seeing in technologies. Yes, but it really comes down to if you take the number of people who have been making those changes and having unicorns in this wonderful world, they go to the best universities and they make these wonderful things happen. That's about 3 million people in a country of a little over 330 million people. And if you take the average 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level, 60% of Americans. So when we deal with education, you have to make that population productive. And through productivity, they become educated and they become productive. They earn money and you have a better society. So a number of things changed that. It was the combination of globalization.

[Casey Means]

Yeah.

[Ray Dalio]

And technology. Think about. I remember, you probably remember what the middle class working on an assembly line at an auto plant was like and how manufacturing occurred.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay. A combination of foreign producers and automation changed all that.

[Tucker Carlson]

Of course.

[Ray Dalio]

So that produces a larger wealth gap. And then with that wealth gap, we also have very large values gaps, but.

[Tucker Carlson]

It'S driven by the wealth gap.

[Ray Dalio]

It's both, you know, some population. Here we are at the World Government Summit in Dubai, and you have very. Globalization. And everybody. The elites, let's call them the elites, where they're among the elites are here doing deals and, you know, facing questions and all of that. And at the same time, then there's those who are dealing with their basics. So wealth gaps contribute to it. But there's also values gaps.

[Tucker Carlson]

Technology is part of the reason that we're here.

[Ray Dalio]

Religion.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

You know, belief systems, these are important too.

[Casey Means]

Of course.

[Tucker Carlson]

But we're on the edge of this AI transformation, which seems like it's going to accelerate the trends that have led us to where we are right now. So what do you. I mean, if artificial intelligence, you know, increases efficiency but leaves an even greater number of people without meaningful work in the United States.

[Ray Dalio]

There needs that. There needs to be a game plan.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yeah.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay. There needs to be a game plan. That. That's the main thing. In other words, I can describe the circumstance.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay. And we can agree that there needs to be a game plan.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, let me ask you, since I'm.

[Ray Dalio]

Not responsible for the game plan, you know, but since you know everybody and.

[Tucker Carlson]

You spend your life talking to everybody and, you know, you're one of the world's biggest investors, so, you know, you're taking these questions seriously. Are you familiar with a game plan in progress?

[Ray Dalio]

There is not a game plan at all. No.

[Tucker Carlson]

That seems crazy, you know.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah, it seems crazy. It seems of. We are going from a transition. I'm just being analytical. Yes, Mechanical. Okay. We are going from. From a transition in which there is, I don't know, collectivism, a multinational, you know, all the constituents working together kind of environment that has also created a bureaucracy and inefficiencies and so on. So you're going from an environment in which there was a World Health Organization, a World Trade Organization, a World bank, and all of that. To unilateral in my own interest. In other words, as a country or within a country, as a constituency, my tribe, what is my interest? And you're going to fight for it. So we have evolved into that kind of lay of the land situation. And so the question is almost what is the we? Who is in control? Okay. I mean, we change control very quickly.

[Tucker Carlson]

I've noticed.

[Ray Dalio]

So. And then who has the plan? So now you get in control, you fight to get into control. You're in control. You gotta do things quickly and you're doing things quickly. You know, we don't have the continuity to be able to work together, to be able to have a plan.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, to be more specific about it, I would say the people developing the technologies. So they would be various Chinese companies, of course, but also Google and Microsoft. Sam Altman.

[Ray Dalio]

Tucker, you're so idealistic. But no, no, I'm realistic. Yes, we all should work together.

[Tucker Carlson]

No, no, no, no. I'm merely saying if I'm, you know, unleashing something on the global population that I think is fair to ask me, like what? You know, like what do you expect to happen to everybody?

[Ray Dalio]

I think. No, no, no, but I think that's what I mean, the notion that it's fair to denies the reality that we're in an environment of pursuit of self interest. So if you take the fight, let's say of technologies, of course, the one who wants to get the latest AI out wants to beat the other one who does it, let alone an American firm and a Chinese firm. And I'm just trying to describe the realities, Tucker. So now let's look at those realities. That's the reality. So when you say they should. Okay, that's the theoretical should. Yes, they should come up with rules that is better for the harmony of the people as a whole. Okay, I agree, they should. I guess what I'm saying is I'm, I'm one realistic, the idealistic. You got to grow up, Tucker. I know.

[Tucker Carlson]

I'm 55.

[Casey Means]

I'm still disappointed.

[Tucker Carlson]

But you're absolutely right. And I'm not, not here to sort of inspire a moral lecture from you or deliver one. I just want to kind of know what you think is going to happen. So you have these technologies, is it fair to say that they really are as transformative, they're as big a deal?

[Ray Dalio]

Hugely. The greatest. So I've studied history. Right?

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

I study, you know, what was the impact of the printing press and what was the impact for the industrial revolutions and so on. This, in my opinion, is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking. That applies to everything. It applies to everything. So whatever you're doing, it will make it much more efficient, much more powerful. But that includes wars too. You know, everything is going to be radically transformed because anything that we apply thinking to is going to be very much transformed by it.

[Casey Means]

We did an interview with a woman called Casey Means. She's a Stanford educated surgeon and really one of the most remarkable people I have ever met. In the interview, she explained how the food that we eat, produced by huge food companies, Big Food in conjunction with pharma, is destroying our health, making this a weak and sick country. The levels of chronic disease are beyond belief. What KC means, who we've not stopped thinking about ever since, is is the co founder of a healthcare technology company called Levels. And we are proud to announce today that we are partnering with Levels. And by proud, I mean sincerely proud. Levels is a really interesting company and a great product. It gives you insight into what's going on inside your body, your metabolic health. It helps you understand how the food that you're eating, the things that you're doing every single day, are affecting your body in real time. And you don't think about it. You have no idea what you're putting in your mouth and you have no idea what it's doing to your body. But over time, you feel weak and tired and spacey. And over an even longer period of time, you can get really sick. So it's worth knowing what the food you eat is doing to you. The Levels app works with something called a continuous glucose monitor, a cgm. You can get one as part of the plan, or you can bring your own, it doesn't matter. But the bottom line is big tech, Big pharma and big food combine together to form an incredibly molecular, malevolent force, pumping you full of garbage, unhealthy food with artificial sugars and hurting you and hurting the entire country. So with Levels, you'll be able to see immediately what all this is doing to you. You get access to real time, personalized data, and that's a critical step to changing your behavior. Those of us who like Oreos can tell you firsthand, this isn't talking to your doctor in an annual physical looking backwards about things you did in the past. This is up to the second information on how your body is responding to different foods and activities, the things that give you stress, your sleep, et cetera, et cetera. It's easy to use. It gives you powerful personalized health data. And you can make much better choices about how you feel. And over time, it'll have a huge effect. Right now you can get an additional two free months when you go to Levels link. Slash Tucker. That's levels dot link. This is the beginning of what we hope will be a long and happy partnership with levels.

[Tucker Carlson]

And Dr. Casey means Tucker says it best.

[Senator Roger Marshall]

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[Tucker Carlson]

Merchants Payments Coalition, not authorized by any.

[Ray Dalio]

Candidate or Candidates Committee.

[Tucker Carlson]

Www.merrestancespaymentscoalition.com Don Junior here, guys.

[Don Junior]

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[Casey Means]

Solve your tax problems today. Call 1-800-780-8888 or visit tnusa.com that's 1-800-780-888.

[Tucker Carlson]

Can you give us some concrete examples that you believe will come to pass, you know, in the next few years, what will change that we at this point can understand?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, right now, tests of AIs is we all of them can pass tests that are equivalent to the PhDs in all fields in one mind. So that there is what we call molly paths, people who can think both across domains. So in that we have these operating so that it's not just like a PhD in one area, it's like a PhD in all areas. And that it could look across those areas and give you answers and operate that way, that has created the. There's an acceleration of this because it compounds as it learns, the learning compounds and it produces that. So that is a reality today. People just haven't yet experienced all of that. And so you're very quickly going to be in a situation where the problems are going to be given to it. You're going to ask its strategies and so on. That can take into consideration all of the things that are happening from everywhere and how the cause effect relationships work. Think about it this way. There's so much complexity in the world. Everything that we're, you know, what happened. There's, there are economic policies or economic things, there are financial things, there are health things. There are all of these things and they all relate to each other. It's, you know, it's called, I think, the butterfly syndrome. You know, if a butterfly changes, flaps its wings, it has these secondary consequences. This is all very complex. It's very complex for the human mind to think about those things. Yes, we're now having a situation where it can all be taken into consideration and be a partner, a thought partner that can actually go beyond our capacities to think about those relationships. And in thinking about those relationships and so on, it has an enormous impact. Somebody in medical area was giving me the example of learning about all the causes, but with the data that they're going to have on each one of us about what were our experiences and what is our diagnosis of each of the parts. And you watch that over time, what air do you breathe, what environment are you in, what stress are you in and all that, that there will be the understanding of these cause effect relationships that in turn change things. And then you go down to the microscopic level of dealing with practically at the molecular cell level in dealing with these problems, okay, the changing of DNA and these types of things, all of those. We are in the midst of a tremendous revolutionary change.

[Tucker Carlson]

What about the field of economics? Can you take kind of the art and the guessing out of it at this point? So you're saying, you have said many times, you've written a lot about it, but the need of governments to get down to 3% of GDP with their debt, so, or else everything collapses. How do you do that? And all these political consequences. The population doesn't want less money spent on them, obviously. You could get governments falling and stuff. Wouldn't AI just solve that for you? You said it produces strategies.

[Ray Dalio]

There's. Does AI control human nature? No, but these are human nature. My bet is that human nature is going to be the biggest force and it's all going to come down to like how we are with each other.

[Tucker Carlson]

I'm so glad though. So there'll be room for human beings still even as we're changing DNA and implanting chips in our brains and stuff.

[Ray Dalio]

Well, if not, we're lost and if so, we're dealing with each other. Yeah, I don't know how well that's going to go either, but I wonder like that.

[Tucker Carlson]

You know, there's still debates. I mean, you're effectively an economist. The debates about supply side versus demand side. Like what is, you know, what is the near and far term effect on these economic.

[Ray Dalio]

We're going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better.

[Casey Means]

Exactly.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay, so by the way, again, I put out this, this writings, the study that shows the mechanics and I want to convey that mechanic so everybody could see the mechanics. But you're going to go down to a molecular level. That means like nowadays we or policymakers like the Federal Reserve think about something like inflation, right? And, and there'll be maybe five measures of inflation. And we're using the term inflation because our minds are limited in its capacity of the number of things we could think about when we're now in this new reality which we now are. You can go down to a molecular level essentially and saying I could see all the different transactions of what was bought and what was sold and why. And now I can really have a level of understanding. We don't have to be at this grand level that we don't. We're going to be at the molecular level of understanding individual transactions and what's affecting them and be able to deploy resources at the individual molecular level, just like we can do it in biology or physical existence and so on.

[Tucker Carlson]

So I mean this will. Lots of downsides to AI, Obviously I dread it. I would end it if I could, but there are upsides and this sounds like one of them. So like if you.

[Ray Dalio]

Of course.

[Tucker Carlson]

So we have a Covid again and we're thinking about should we issue Covid checks with AI we can know what.

[Ray Dalio]

The money's going for and that'll change everything, will change the controls and. But it is of course a two edged sword, right? It'll change who controls it, who has access to it, who can use it detrimentally to other people. All of these things are part of the question.

[Tucker Carlson]

Is there any way to avoid like totalitarian social controls under AI with AI.

[Ray Dalio]

I think there's a question of whether you can have social and totality and totalitarian controls or maybe you just have anarchy. I mean, I don't know where we're going. I can't tell you. I cannot tell you. What this world, I do believe we're going to go through a time warp. Okay. What I mean, it's going to feel like you're going through over the next five years. And that environment is because of these five major forces that do all of these things and the changes in the technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and related technologies. So the world five years from now is going to be a radically different world. And I don't know what that's going to look like. When you go into the world of quantum computing and what quantum is like in so many different ways, it raises questions of, you know, what is that like? I'm not smart enough to tell you what that world is going to look.

[Tucker Carlson]

Like, but it's an investor for 50.

[Ray Dalio]

Years who is in control. I don't know who's in control.

[Tucker Carlson]

Okay, so, but right. So this is like the opposite of what you've done your whole life where you try to predict, you know, five years hence, that's your whole business. Right?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, that's. I said my. My business is try to predict. But I'd say first thing, whatever success I've had in life has more to been due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know than anything I know. Okay? So how you deal with what you don't know, I believe, okay. Is so important. So I, yes, my, my business in a nutshell is I try to find a bunch of bets that I think are good bets, but to diversify. Well, so that I have a bunch of diversified. That's because I do not know. I mean, in terms of my actual track record, I've probably been right about 65% of the time, okay. And I. And any one bad bet can kill you. So I've known how to deal with that. That's what I've learned, including how to deal with what I don't know.

[Tucker Carlson]

So now you're describing an environment where you can't really know anything about the world in five years, you.

[Ray Dalio]

Well, I can know. I could place good bets. Okay. There are some things that are highly knowable. Okay? Highly knowable. Like they say, you know, death and taxes.

[Tucker Carlson]

Right?

[Ray Dalio]

Okay. Demographics. Okay. So I can know or have a view, for example, that owning, I believe owning debt assets is not going to be a good thing. So I could think about alternative store holds of wealth. I could think about that. I can place some bets that allow me, you know, they're not the certain bets, but I can place enough bets and have enough diversification that I can be relatively confident of some things. But never absolutely all totally confident. But I think when we're coming back anyway, that's the reality. I'm just describing our reality the best I can. That's why people who are confident in the future and are just experiencing the present, you know, right now, people are describing, all of them are describing how things are. And almost everybody thinks the future is going to be a modified version of the present.

[Tucker Carlson]

Pure extrapolation.

[Casey Means]

Forward.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah, okay, things are good.

[Tucker Carlson]

All right, I get it.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay, things. Well, I'll guarantee you there will be big changes.

[Tucker Carlson]

So those are dumb people you're saying, making those comments.

[Ray Dalio]

I'm not, I'm saying it's understandable. But when you study change and the nature of change, it's a, you know, the world changes in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding of.

[Tucker Carlson]

But.

[Ray Dalio]

We can't be sure about anything because of the nature.

[Tucker Carlson]

But in this specific. I mean, that's always true. And wise people understand that like you don't. You're not in control of the future, of course, you're not God. But in this specific case, where there are specific technologies whose development we understand because we're watching, almost feels like there's no human agency here. Like not one person ever suggests, like, well, why don't we just stop the development of the technologies by force?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, there's. I think you're being theoretical again. You know, I don't know. Just look how the system works, ok? Who makes what decisions? How? Like I think you have the bias of we should stop all these technologies and just stop it. Somebody else has another view and the other people have other views and then there's a means by which those views turn into actions. Okay? And so it's correct. The system that we're dealing in will make those types of decisions and we could discuss the pros and cons of all of those things. But that's just how it works, right?

[Tucker Carlson]

I don't know. I mean there, there are all kinds of pernicious, long standing things that we've stopped, like the global slave trade. The Brits are like, we're not for this, we're stopping it. And they did.

[Ray Dalio]

Tucker, you, you are using that we stopped, okay?

[Tucker Carlson]

No, Britain stopped it.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay, But I'm just trying to say you have to look at the system and say who has their hands on the levers of power, right? And what will they do and what are their motivations? How does the system work?

[Tucker Carlson]

I think that's right.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay. How does the machine work to make Decisions. Okay, we. So if we can agree on this person makes these types of decisions about these things and it works this way, then we can say we, the collective, we can do that. But this theoretical collective we. That is going to make decisions like we could sit here and be very theoretical.

[Tucker Carlson]

I get, I get it. A determination probably can't stop this. So that. My second question is, you keep hearing that there's this AI race between the United States and China.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah.

[Tucker Carlson]

Is it true that one country will be completely dominant by the end of this race and that that will be meaningful or.

[Ray Dalio]

I think. No, I think that what's going to happen is. And again, I'm speaking now probabilistically, I think that there will be different types of developments. But by and large you. It's very difficult to keep intellectual property.

[Tucker Carlson]

Yes.

[Ray Dalio]

That when you take the products of the intellectual property and you put them in the public.

[Tucker Carlson]

Exactly.

[Ray Dalio]

That'll last about six months, I mean, at most. And you'll develop the nearest. And so intellectual property protections and isolation is probably not going to work. And so now we're going to have different advantages and disadvantages. Let's say, for example, in China's case, there are many fantastic chips not quite at the same level. See, we design chips, but we can't produce chips effectively. We can't produce, by and large, we can't produce things, any manufactured goods as effectively. Cost effectively. By and large, we have a problem doing that. So what we'll do is we'll design those better chips. You won't have the intellectual protections and you're going to then have the production of things in China at a very inexpensive way. Manufacturing. China has about 33% of the manufacturing in the world, which is more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. They manufacture effectively, cheaply. They will embed chips in the manufacturing, the application of chips. They're going to probably. They are more ahead on China's, more head on the application of chips. Robotics. So we're talking about just thinking, but when you connect the thinking to bodies that are automatic bodies too, and you have robotics and so on, they're ahead on that type of thing. So different entities are going to be ahead in different ways. And, and we're going to then be in this world in which there's competition in that world, and then there's an attempt to be protectionist or whatever, we're to fight those differences and that's what the world looks like.

[Tucker Carlson]

Does the combination of AI and robotics bring manufacturing back to the United States?

[Ray Dalio]

We are behind in Both of those areas greatly behind, you know, so, you know, I would say we're not going to have competitive advantages in those things. What we're competitive in is that small percentage of the population that is uniquely inventive in terms of inventiveness. You know, the number of Nobel Prize winners in the United States, United States dominates, Nobel Prize winners in the world. The inventiveness, best universities and so on. We have a system that is a legal system and a capital market system, and we can bring the best from the world all to the United States to create an environment if we could work well together in that inventiveness with rule of law working and all of that working, we have those things that are our competitive advantage. We do not have manufacturing, and we're not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China in our lifetimes. I don't believe. Okay, so now the question is how we deal with that.

[Tucker Carlson]

Our inventiveness, you just said, and many have said comes from our education system, from our universities. But then you began the conversation by saying that AI is already.

[Ray Dalio]

And foreigners. If you look at that population, there's 3 million people who's, you know, just basically changing. About half of them are foreigners. If you can attract the best and the brightest, right? And there's a lot to be attracted to in the United States from the best and the brightest because we are a country of all of these different people operating this way, and we create these equal opportunities. Look who's running some of the countries, companies. They come from different places. If we can have the best of the world in the world, come in that kind of environment to be creative and so on, we can invest, vent and so on, but we can't produce.

[Tucker Carlson]

But those, those, the people you're describing have come to our universities. That's basically.

[Ray Dalio]

That's right.

[Tucker Carlson]

Silicon Valley's there because Stanford's there.

[Ray Dalio]

That's right.

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[Tucker Carlson]

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[Tucker Carlson]

But you began the conversation by saying that AI is now at the point where you know, the machines have the equivalent knowledge of a PhD in every different topic. So like at some point are you going to have universities?

[Ray Dalio]

We'll redefine what universities are like, but you're going to have that combination of things working together because still we're a long way from. Not a long way, but we're away from the point of the decision making will be made by the AI because okay. And the wisdom will be by the AI. Like you're not going to have the AI determine how you raise your kid and different people will raise their children differently and so on. The actual. You'll rely on it. But it's really the magic for the foreseeable future is remarkable people with remarkable technologies producing remarkable changes. And then we're going to have then the consequences of that.

[Tucker Carlson]

As long as human decision making plays a role, I'm totally fine with it. But yeah, you say that the university is going to change. I mean, how could it not? I thought the Internet was going to get rid of universities. It didn't happen. But I mean how long does it take for the current model to change? It's pretty resistant to change.

[Ray Dalio]

I think it's. Yes, it's slow to change and those who change slowly will be left behind and, and then you'll have the best. I would say you see things taking place. But anyway it'll. I would expect that it's going to. Life is, is more like a game, I think. You know, it's almost like it's almost like a video game. And you're going to be able to have real world learning experiences in many different ways to be able to provide education. But it's going to be interactive. You're going to see a type of merging. Whether you like it or not, you're going to see a type of merging of the man and the artificial intelligence.

[Tucker Carlson]

Does that worry you?

[Ray Dalio]

Of course it worries me and then it excites me. You know what worries me most fundamentally is how people are with these, each other. Okay. Can we put harmony and happiness togetherness? Can we resolve decisions, issues? Can we deal with these issues together? That is the most important thing. I think we emphasize too much the wonderful, remarkable things that we get from AI like we'll have Greater life expectancy and less disease. Disease. And we can have all of those things. But the question is, do we have harmony, Quality of life? You know, it's. I did a study. It's also. I put it out free online, which is ratings. Lots of statistics used for rating various conditions of countries, 24 top countries. It's called the Global Powers Index. It's online free for anybody who wants to look at it. And I rated different powers. Power, economic power, military power, education power, and so on. Then I rated health. How long you live, the diseases you're encumbered by, and so on, and happiness, what your happiness level is, and what's interesting about that is that the measures of power don't have past a certain level of living standards, don't have a correlation with health, which is amazing because you have all the money to produce the health and have no correlation with happiness. For example, in the United States, which is the most powerful country in the world, by these measures, our life expectancy is five years less than Canadians. So they're right next to us. And five years less than countries of equal income levels. Okay? So health, there's poor correlation. And in happiness, there's no correlation. Like Indonesia has the second highest happiness rating. So all I'm saying is we think about also how we work with each other, how we are with each other. The highest determinant of happiness is community. Of course, if you have a good community, you have happiness, and it has a positive effect on health. So I think it all comes down to how we are with each other. That is going in dealing with all of the questions that you're raising.

[Tucker Carlson]

There's been no advance in, like, changing human nature over time. Right. I mean, what's the technological advance? No advance in getting along with each other.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah, it goes in ebbs and cycles. I would look at it this way. There are many religions in the world. Most of the religions have two components to them. The first component is, you know, follow the word of God. And you have to follow it, you know, in. In that way. But the others are about harmony. And they. In other words, how do we create a harmonious society? You know, the. So you look at the Ten Commandments or something and you and their rules for how do you achieve harmony? And there are things like karma. Okay, how do you achieve harmony? So different societies have different ways of trying to achieve harmony. So I think that's important. Harmony. I think it comes down to some basic things. Like I watch, I study this thing and I go around the world. I think first do you educate, raise your children well? Okay. In other words, educate them in capabilities so they're capable, but also in civility and how they are with each other. Because a capable civil person will come out to a society in which they can work well together to be productive. That people have to be productive. Right. So, but they, in order to be productive, you have to have a harmony. They have to deal with the questions. I'm answering your question about how we deal with this. I'm saying we have to deal with it together. There's only in an environment where there's harmony rather than fighting are you going to be able to address the types of questions that you're raising. Right. How do you, you know, you, when you ask me, you know, is what's going to happen with AI and and then you say we need to do this and we need to do that. It strikes me that it depends how the we's deal with each other. To be able to deal with those things is the most important things. And there are bases, basics of how we deal with each other. That's the most important thing.

[Tucker Carlson]

I agree with that last question. You didn't grow, I don't think you grew up in like a billionaire world.

[Ray Dalio]

No, my dad was a jazz musician and you know, we had a low middle class family. But I have had everything I ever needed.

[Tucker Carlson]

Well, so that's kind of my question. Now you live obviously in a billionaire world, which is where do you run into more happy people?

[Ray Dalio]

Oh, almost. General. If you get past the things that you, your basics, you know, if I can, you know, health, education, habitat and you get past those, you've got everything you need. And then if you have community, you have everything you need. That is the best.

[Tucker Carlson]

Ray Dalio, thank you very much.

[Ray Dalio]

Thank you.

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